Time to Dance: Playoff Preview Act 1

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. The transfer portal is open, the coaching carousel is still spinning, the court system is letting JUCO players play until they’re kicked off their parent’s health insurance, we’re gearing up for 11 playoff games sandwiched between 36 other bowl games, and we’re out of breath. Let’s get to it, baby.

Scheduling note: we’ll be back next Thursday, 12/26 to preview the remaining non-playoff bowl games. If you missed our first bowl preview, you can catch it here which went through the first 14 bowl games - 8 of which have yet to be played as of publishing - through next Thursday and included some choice words on UNC’s hiring of Bill Belichick. Link

Let’s Set the Stage

You’ll notice we included a weather report for the playoff games and there are two reasons for that. The first is that we could get some ridiculously cold games which we are normally used to seeing in Lambeau Field or whatever dumb name bestows the Bills stadium, not in college football. The second is one of the major push backs from Big Bowl (Rose, Cotton, Orange, etc) about having the first round games on campus is the weather. They also floated traffic concerns, stadium operations, campuses being unprepared, or whatever they could throw at the wall and make stick. We are firmly in the camp that the first round should remain on campus and any news that percolates about traffic or weather issues will be thanks to an orchestrated PR campaign by bowl officials who will want R1 moved to bowl sites in the next playoff iteration two years from now. We implore you not to listen to them. The same fans of Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame also go to Browns, Bears, and Steelers games. Picture a stereotypical Chicago Bears fan in January. Is his shirt off? Thought so. Similarly, have you ever heard Penn State or Notre Dame fans complain about gameday traffic? How would this be any different than any other Notre Dame or Penn State home football game? Don’t listen to the money-hungry bowl execs early next week. Any morsel of information they’re given will be blown way out of proportion and lead to calls for massive changes to the system. Kinda like the dogs and the cats of Springfield, Ohio.

As for the broadcast of these games, there are some interesting things to note. First, ESPN will broadcast the Notre Dame game on Friday night which will be the first non-NBC home broadcast for the Irish since 1991. Also, the noon and 4pm Saturday games will be on TNT. ESPN sublicensed the rights to these games to Turner in the recent TV contract negotiations but ESPN personalities will still be broadcasting these games. Lastly, College GameDay will be live from South Bend, IN on Friday and Columbus, OH on Saturday. We can think of $7.8 billion reasons why ESPN is going balls to the wall here. The Notre Dame and Ohio State games might clear 20 million viewers which would be in line with some of the most watched regular season college football games of all time like the 2006 and 2011 Game of the Century between Ohio State-Michigan and LSU-Bama respectively. It’s going to be a spectacle but enough nerding out on advertising dollars, let’s get to the games.

Playoff Preview: Part 1

#10 Indiana (11-1) @ #7 Notre Dame (11-1): ND -7, O/U 51.5 - Friday, 12/20 8:00 pm ET ABC

Weather Report: 26 degrees and cloudy. Real Feel of 18. No snow during the game, but South Bend will get 1-3 inches on Friday. TLDR cold as hell.

This is just an awesome game. Two in-state power programs that literally never play each other are now matched up in the playoffs, in one of the sport’s most iconic venues, and it might snow? Sign us the hell up. It also happens to be arguably the most intriguing matchup of the weekend as, frankly, these teams have played a combined two opponents that are really worth a damn at the national level. Both of these defenses are good, especially on each front where there are multiple Sunday players on each defensive line. Notre Dame’s star running back, Jeremiyah Love, is banged up and while he’s expected to play, things could get very dicey for the Irish offense if they struggle to get that run game rolling early, because the key to beating this team is forcing them to beat you through the air. That’s not what QB Riley Leonard is good at, that’s not what they want to do anyway, and they don’t have any receivers that really scare you.

Similar things could be said about Indiana, though. IU quarterback Kurtis Rourke is a much better passer than Leonard, but Notre Dame has the ability to affect the pocket in ways that only a couple of Indiana’s regular opponents did. Michigan and Ohio State both have the type of defensive line talent that the Irish have, and those defenses were able to significantly slow down what had been a dominant Hoosiers offense all season before then. Just like it is for the Irish, it’s imperative that Indiana is able to find success on the ground here, or else Notre Dame’s front seven is going to start teeing off on the largely immobile Rourke. 

All schedules are not created equal, and these two teams didn’t play anything like what teams like Georgia or Florida did this year. Both of these teams only played in one true “headliner” game each this season - Notre Dame beat Texas A&M in Week 1 but didn’t look that inspiring in doing so, and then lost to Northern Illinois the next week. Indiana got absolutely blown to pieces in their biggest game of the year against Ohio State. So how good are these two teams, really? It’s hard to say, but we’ll know a lot more about both of them tonight. Hope they’re ready for the Dawgs.

Rand’s prediction: Freeman only loses to MAC teams. Notre Dame 24-10

Tate’s prediction: Indiana pulls off a shocker and wins 23-20 on a game-winning field goal.

#11 SMU (11-2) @ #6 Penn State (11-2): PSU -8.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday, 12/21 12:00 pm ET TNT

Weather Report: 26 degrees and partly sunny. Gusts up to 25 mph with a windchill in the teens. Chance of snow throughout the game but not expected. TLDR cold as you know what.

Another electric atmosphere at a historic college football venue? I know there are aspects about the 12-team playoff that we don’t love, but dammit this is awesome. This is another interesting matchup because of how different these two teams operate on offense. Penn State normally operates at a snail’s pace on offense, and in this one we expect it to look more like a snail on Xanax for a couple of different reasons. First, SMU’s offense really thrives when they are in a rhythm, moving fast and keeping defenses on their feet. It makes sense for Penn State to keep the ball away from them as much as they can to disable them from really finding their groove. But secondly and most interestingly, I think the scheme-off of the weekend is going to come between PSU offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who loves to motion and shift a whole lot, and SMU defensive coordinator Scott Symons, who loves to blitz a whole lot. You should expect a massive amount of shifts and motions from Penn State to see if they can get SMU to tip some of the exotic blitzes they like to bring before the snap. And I mean a massive amount of shifts and motions. This will be a fun matchup to watch.

On the other end, a lot has been made all year about Penn State’s defense, especially about their ability to rush the passer. All of that is true, but the Nittany Lions have not yet played a quarterback quite like SMU’s Kevin Jennings, who is unbelievably quick and crafty when things break down in the pocket and has the speed and agility to make you pay with his legs downfield. We saw both Ohio State’s Will Howard and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel beat Penn State with their legs, and neither of those guys are even close to as mobile as Jennings. Penn State’s ability to contain him in the pocket will be a massive factor in this game, but the Mustangs will need to make some things happen through the air, too. Fun matchup because of the atmosphere, the Cinderella factor on the SMU side, and the abject dichotomy of styles we’ll see from both offenses. 

Tate’s prediction: I’m riding another upset - SMU shocks the world and beats Penn State 34-30. Penn State fans start clamoring for James Franklin’s head.

Rand’s prediction: Start clamoring? They already are. 35-31 Mustangs. 

#12 Clemson (10-3) @ #5 Texas (11-2): TEX -11.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday, 12/21 4:00 pm ET TNT

Weather Report: 60 degrees and sunny. Whatever, Texas.

“The Sad Orange People Showdown”, as many people are calling it, looks like it’s going to be the only game that won’t be impacted by the weather which may be a nice break in the middle of the day Saturday. Somehow, in a first round that has SMU and Indiana in it, the Clemson Tigers are the biggest underdog of the weekend, largely due to the fact they kind of suck. Thankfully for Dabo and his boys, Texas also kinda sucks.

Clemson has a shot here for a few reasons. First, Texas’ Quinn Ewers is just blatantly not healthy at all. He missed two games earlier this year with an oblique injury, something that never seemed to fully heal as the weeks went on and he seemed to lose power on his throws. Then he rolled his ankle against Kentucky just a few weeks ago and seemed entirely immobile against Georgia in the SEC Championship. Still, Steve Sarkisian stuck with him even though Arch Manning has proved several times that he provides a spark to their offense that they seem to often need. If Sark fully rolls with Ewers again, Clemson’s very talented defensive line may be able to disrupt Texas in the backfield over and over again the same way Georgia did to them twice, to give themselves a shot in a low-scoring affair. Texas has also really struggled in the red zone all year and has struggled to run the ball for most of the season, so even if the Longhorns are moving the ball effectively, can they finish enough drives to put Clemson away? They’ll likely have to do so without star receiver Isaiah Bond, too, as he’s doubtful with a high ankle sprain. Consider us doubtful that the Horns light things up on offense… unless Arch plays.

With all of that said, it’s important to remember that Clemson has largely looked like crap against the best teams they’ve played this year - especially on offense. QB Cade Klubnik (who is from the Austin area, by the way, so this will be a homecoming event for him) goes into a shell and starts seeing ghosts when things aren’t going well, which is not ideal when playing this Texas defense. Running back Phil Mafa will have to be at his A game to get things rolling for the Tigers all night, and frankly, Klubnik is going to need to have the game of his life to have a shot here on the road.

Rand’s prediction: You could tell me the final score was 35-10 with either team winning and I wouldn’t be surprised. But this isn’t Clemson of old. 27-17 Horns. 

Tate’s prediction: Clemson keeps it close in the first half but can’t score quite enough. UT wins 31-20. That’s a cover, Tiger fans!

#9 Tennessee (10-2) @ #8 Ohio State (10-2): OSU -7, O/U 47.5 - Saturday, 12/21 8:00 pm ET ABC

Weather Report: 25 degrees with a windchill in the mid-teens. TLDR cold as shit. 

The game that everyone seems most excited for is in the night slot as the Vols head up to the Shoe to take on the most miserable fanbase in the entire playoff, the Ohio State Buckeyes. Enough has been made about what’s at stake here for Ryan Day - we are a part of the group that thinks he will be fired if they lose at home here. Tickets are apparently still available en masse which Tennessee fans are allegedly scooping up, and the vibes in Columbus could not be much lower. So naturally, the Buckeyes are a touchdown favorite here. Surely they’ll cover with ease!

In all honesty, for as much hype as this game is getting compared to the other games, this may be the most brutal watch of them all. The O/U is only at 47.5 and for good reason - both defenses are good, but both offenses have a habit of losing all confidence in themselves and flailing out possession after possession. Both teams are going to try to establish themselves on the ground early and often, which is the last thing Ohio State fans want to hear after they tried to prove they could out-physical Michigan and f*cking lost while doing so. But Tennessee’s secondary is beatable if, and only if, they have to commit an extra man in the box to account for a successful run game. OSU needs to prove they can run the ball to start creating one-on-ones for their comically talented receivers. If they can do that, they should find some success on offense. But Tennessee’s defensive front is no joke and if the Buckeyes fail to run the ball, guys like James Pearce Jr. are going to tee off on Will Howard the same way Michigan did a few weeks ago. It’s all going to come down to Will Howard being able to convert on throws for sixty minutes.

It’s really the same story for Tennessee: can Nico Iamaleava deliver the ball accurately for an entire game? He has really struggled to do so at times this year, and Tennessee went through a stretch where they couldn’t score a single point in entire halves of football. He’s been better recently, but Tennessee’s offense heavily relies on establishing their run game, too, and that won’t be easy against Ohio State’s front four. I’m curious to see how OSU defensive coordinator Jim Knowles chooses to present his defense early in this one - does he let Tennessee spread them out with their wide splits, or does he leave his corners out on islands and stay in his base looks to get after Nico? It’s always interesting to see how defenses choose to play Tennessee, especially the types of defensive coordinators (like Knowles) who are incredibly convinced that their style of defense is the only right way to do things. Nico will need to play a hell of a game to win this one at the Shoe, but they’re paying him millions of dollars for a reason, right? No matter which way this one goes, watching one of these fanbases meltdown on Twitter late on Saturday night will be just as entertaining as the game.

Tate’s prediction: Tennessee out-physicals the Buckeyes, Nico hits a few big shots, and Tennessee pulls off the upset 24-17. Please don’t hire Glenn Schumann, OSU.

Rand’s prediction: I’d love to see a full-blown Buckeye meltdown but that might have to wait a week. 28-24 Ohio State.

Rand’s Take on Wake’s Jake Deac-ert

Yes, I’m workshopping the title but given Jake Dickert’s last name you’re lucky I didn’t take the crude angle. Anywho, if you live under a rock and/or don’t care about Wake Forest football, head coach Dave Clawson stepped down on Monday and Washington State’s head coach Jake Dickert was named his replacement on Wednesday. Now that that’s out of the way…

There’s a famous quote from Andy in The Office that goes, “I wish there was a way to know you are in the good old days before you’ve actually left them.” In the case of Dave Clawson and the Deacs circa 2021, I knew we were in the good old days. The fall wasn’t a high-speed car crash but more like when your car spins out on a hill and you slide into your neighbor's car at 5 mph. A decline was inevitable but that doesn’t take away anything Clawson did. He leaves a legacy of being the best coach in Wake Forest history. If you want to make a case for the late, great Peahead Walker and his illustrious tenure from the 1940’s, I won’t argue with you.

Clawson was the perfect coach for Wake following Grobe and it’s a modern miracle Wake was able to hold onto him for as long as we did. Pre-NIL he took the Grobe playbook of get old and stay old (read: redshirt everyone) and turned the physical disadvantages into schematic nightmares for opposing DCs (read: slow mesh). Clawson probably saw the writing on the wall that even if he got 80% of the team back next year, the best-case scenario would be a low-level bowl game; but his heart wasn’t into it enough to coach and work through another round of offseason of the transfer portal, tampering, and NIL promises. I don’t blame him, Saban, Tony Bennett, or any other coach who has called it quits in the last three years. This is a completely different sport than the one they cut their teeth in 20+ years ago. Clawson was an impeccable representation of Wake Forest and the Deacs will forever be indebted to him (and Grobe). Now build those mfing statues. 

Sidenote: the fact that we’re talking about building statues for two coaches who finished their careers at Wake under .500 goes to show just how hard it is to win at Wake and why the Grobe and Clawson tenures were so impressive. Clawson finished 67-69 and Grobe was 77-82. For reference, Wake’s all-time winning percentage is .419 which is the worst in the Power 4 and just behind Indiana at .423. 

As for his replacement, AD John Currie went from announcing Clawson was stepping down to having his replacement, Jake Dickert, on a private jet from Pullman, WA in less than 48 hours. THAT is how you run a coaching search, UNC. Bluntly, I am cautiously optimistic in this hire and that’s all you really can be. Grading coaching hires is like trying to guess Powerball numbers. I told my UNC friend that in three years if you told me Dickert and/or Belichick went 2-10 or 10-2 three years in a row I’d be like “oh, I can see that.” There’s so much volatility and unpredictability, especially below the top tier of the sport - hello, Indiana - that making predictions is a futile exercise. 

That being said, I am very glad Wake did not opt for West Virginia’s Neal Brown who was just canned or some retread coach. Conversely, I don’t think there was a realistic home run hire out there for us. I’d be over the moon for Georgia’s DC Glenn Schumann or Penn State’s OC Andy Kotelnicki but they’re not going anywhere until their teams lose and the portal closes in one week. JMU’s Bob Chesney would’ve been a great hire too but I wouldn’t be higher or lower on him than I am Dickert. 

Dickert got his chance at Wazzu after Nick Rolovich refused to get the COVID vaccine in 2021 and was fired midseason. From there, he coached Wazzu to a 23-20 and oversaw the program through the collapse of the Pac-12. This year they got off to an 8-1 start and top 15 ranking before fading down the stretch which Wake can unfortunately relate to. He guided Wazzu through hell and kept them relevant despite all the off-the-field uncertainty he had no control over. The fact Wazzu even made a bowl is something I never would’ve predicted given how many people they lost from last year’s team. He’s 41 years old which makes him one of the youngest in the ACC with Fran Brown and Rhett Lashlee. He comes from a defensive background but his past two OC’s have run the Air Raid and are now the head coach at North Texas and the OC at Oklahoma. His past two quarterbacks are Cam Ward and John Mateer who just committed to Oklahoma and was the best QB in the transfer portal this cycle. Does that information equate to immediate success or failure? No idea, probably somewhere in the middle but I’m intrigued and optimistic. Dickert hasn’t made announcements on his staff and the key players on Wake’s roster - RB Demond Claiborne, QB Jeremy Hecklinski - have yet to announce if they’re coming back or not so it’s way too early to make proclamations on how this team will look next year or his program building philosophy. 

On the flip side, I feel bad for Wazzu. That fanbase, athletic department, and frankly the entire university has been ripped to shreds in the past 3 years to no fault of their own except their geography and brand appeal. Is it a sign of things to come for everyone in the ACC except Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA? Perhaps, but that’s a completely different story. I feel nothing but pity for Wazzu but can we stop with the death threats? This is how coach hirings work in college football and everyone is the victim at some point. I do their anger and outrage as a compliment that Dickert is a good coach. So I’ll pour one out for Wazzu (and Oregon State yet again) and welcome Dickert into the fold. Go Deacs. 

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Closing out OnlyRans & Tate’s Great Picks

You’ll notice we’re not doing OnlyRans or Tate’s Great Picks for the bowl season. We don’t want to give those of you in our Bowl Challenge an unfair advantage by knowing who we’re picking or betting on. Last year, it came down to the national championship game and Tate was in the final two but thankfully dear reader Sam Weinbach saved us from accusations of fraud. Also, if you’re betting on bowl games where some teams barely have enough players to field a team or there was a coaching change and the new OC is a 26-year-old grad assistant…respect. Here’s how we finished out the year:

Tate’s Great Picks went 4-4 over conference championship weekend to close out at 62-63 (.496)

OnlyRans went 5-3 over conference championship weekend to close out 69-73 (.485)

Also, take a look at how our regular season win totals netted out from our predictions way back in August. The quotes are directly from our evaluations of the bets from those earlier newsletters here and here. The two big takeaways are OnlyRans is clearly the superior bettor and never bet on your own team :( 

OnlyRans (6-4)

Mizzou under 9.5 wins - W “I’m pumping the brakes on Missouri as the deep state SEC sleeper team”

Ore St under 8.5 - W

Iowa over 7.5 - W “I don’t know how they keep doing this but Iowa is a wagon of which I must ride”

Vandy over 2.5 - W

Indiana over 5.5 - W “If there are small children in your vicinity please ask them to go in the other room because I’m predicting Indiana to make a bowl game”

Arizona under 8.5 - W “Arizona is a sexy sleeper pick… Is anyone in the world a sexy sleeper?”

Wazzu under 7.5 - L

Notre Dame under 10.5 - L “Assuming they lose to FSU at home in November”

West Virginia over 6.5 - L

Wake over 4.5 - L “5 wins against the following 7: NC A&T, Virginia, Louisiana, Connecticut, @Stanford, Cal, Duke. Right!?!?!? I f*cking hope so.”

Tate’s Great Picks (4-5)

Notre Dame under 10.5 wins - L “I’m very confident that they’ll drop one or two more of their games against Louisville, Florida State, Georgia Tech, or USC.”

USF over 7.5 - L

Nebraska over 7.5 - L “I believe I’ve now said “Nebraska could be 7-0 headed into their game against OSU” three separate times”

Georgia over 10.5 - L “C’mon man.”

TAMU over 8.5 - L

Texas Tech over 7.5 - W

Florida over 4.5 - W “ Alright I hate the Florida Gators just as much as the next true blooded American…”

WKU over 7.5 - W “I am going to hammer this.”

GT over 4.5 - W “I think this team is going bowling.”

Have a great holiday break and we’ll talk to you next week.

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Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this endeavor. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.