Belichick & Bowl Preview Part 1

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We did it folks, we made it through the first-ever official 12-team CFP bracket announcement and as we all expected, nobody is upset about it. Ole Miss, South Carolina, and especially Alabama all seem perfectly content to sit this one out and everyone agrees that Arizona State and Boise State undoubtedly deserve first-round byes. Great system we have here, and thankfully we have a while to get used to it considering it won’t change again until the contract ends checks notes, uh, next year. Anyway, it’s Army Navy week which means it’s also Heisman Trophy week. We here at 4th & Forever made our official Heisman pick - Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty - all the back in Week 6, and dammit we’re sticking to it. We won’t be upset if Travis Hunter gets it, but we still believe this is Jeanty’s award, as Boise State would be nowhere near the 3 seed without him possibly breaking the all-time single-season rushing record in the first round. We’ll also take a quick look at the coaching carousel in this edition - with one hilarious hire in particular making us laugh out loud - and we’ll peek in at some of the bowl games that get kicked off on Saturday. It’s time for some morning eggnog folks - enjoy.

4th & Forever Bowl Pick ‘Em Contest

One of Rand & Tate’s favorite parts of the newsletter is connecting with the readers. For the new and/or unknown one way we do that is with a CFB Bowl Pick ‘Em contest. We did it last year and of course, we’re bringing it back. By connecting we mean kicking your ass because we are superior and know all. Bowling Green’s starting QB opted out of the 68 Ventures Bowl? Yeah we know, and we also know the backup is a two-star from Liberty High School in Youngstown, OH but he was severely underrecruited due to injuries. Diamond in the Rough or something like that. You’re welcome to compete but just know you’re competing for third with the rest of the gen pop. Rules and information are below and we look forward to taking your money.

Signup Link: 4th & Forever

Password: Newsletter (if you did this last year the group should pop up for you - you’ll just need to reenter the password)

Rules: $20 entry fee and 1 entry per person, straight up pick ‘em. Venmo @Rand-Fisher or @Tate-Smillie. Venmo is preferred but we accept any other form of payment. If you manage to get us $20 we’ll get it back to you in the off chance you win. By off chance, we assume you’re cheating.

Prize: Winner takes all and gets a 4&F T-shirt while 2nd place gets their money back. 

Deadline: First bowl kicks off this Saturday at noon ET so get your picks in.

Rand’s Take on UNC and Bill Belichick

Carolina, what the hell are you doing? Just a few weeks ago, I (Rand), wrote: UNC has the opportunity to make a smart, sensible hire which is a scary proposition. This is neither smart nor sensible, you’re merely kicking the can down the road. Bill Belichick is 72 and in 5 years (plus or minus 2) you’ll be right back on the coaching market. Maybe it’s intentional and this works out, but I’m not betting on it. Or Maybe Bill can coach for 15 years and retire when he’s 87. Can you cheat Father Time if you have a 24-year-old girlfriend?

Let’s back up. It was public knowledge that Mack Brown was hired to be a bridge coach. He’d come in, get the dormant program rolling, and hand the keys off to a younger, experienced coach. Of course, that didn’t go to plan as Mack’s second stint was statistically equal to that of Larry Fedora’s. He kept the program afloat but it remains stagnant. However, UNC entered the market as the preeminent coaching destination this cycle. They theoretically had their pick of any of the top candidates. Monken at Army, Campbell at ISU, Sumrall at Tulane, etc etc. It wasn’t a guarantee they’d get any of those guys but at a minimum, they’d be able to get someone above their weight class rather than next year when a trove of SEC jobs are supposed to open. I’ve got some horrendous vision but even I didn’t have to put in my contacts to see a path to success for UNC following Brown’s departure. 

What’s happened during this search is A) hilarious and B) evidence of what can happen when the boosters, AD, and board aren’t in agreement. If just one of those parties isn’t in lockstep with the plan you get results like this. It’s why Jimbo left FSU after winning a national title, it’s why John Currie got fired at Tennessee after their debacle of a coaching search, why Auburn will remain the poster child of athletic department malpractice for eternity, and most importantly, why Nick Saban was so damn successful at Alabama. Who’s calling the shots at X program is never a question you want to be asked because from the looks of it, it sure as hell isn’t AD Bubba Cunningham. Bubba and the Chancellor have publicly chastised twice in the past 6 months by the Board of Regents. Once over the summer for a boring audit situation you can look up on your own time and second for firing Mack Brown over Zoom while in Hawai’i for the Maui Invitational. If Bubba and the Chancellor don’t have as much power as they think, that’s fine, but that needs to be ironed out behind closed doors before you fire a program legend and hire someone to be the highest-paid figure in the entire state. God help Bubba Cunningham if he is still around if/when Hubert Davis is fired. If the strife isn’t resolved by then, they will turn off high-profile coaches from coaching at arguably the best basketball job in America. Oh wait, they already did with Nate Oats at Alabama but that’s a different conversation. 

As for the issue at hand, let’s unpack a theoretical hiring of Bill Belichick. Aside from the fact he’s one year younger than Mack Brown, has never coached in college football, and didn’t do anything of note without the best QB who ever lived (spare me the 1980’s defensive coordinator comments) you’re left with him being the best NFL coach of all time. Some of the verbiage that’s been planted in the media by those at UNC who favored hiring him is that he spent a lot of time around the Washington Huskies football team where his son is the DC. Spending time and being on staff as an analyst are two completely different things. I spend a lot of time on airplanes but that doesn’t mean I know how my bag gets from the check-in desk to the cargo bay or how the security scanner knows I forgot my airpods in my pocket. Much less how to fly a fucking airplane. Spare me any argument that Bill knows how modern day CFB works because his son has been a defensive coordinator at UW for 10 months. 

Second, the narrative (again, leaked to the media by pro-Belichick people at UNC) seems to be that he'd make UNC an NFL development factory. That seems fair, reasonable, and rational except for the fact every team in the country is trying to do that and 40 or so programs are better than UNC at doing that, and guess what, they don’t have Bill Belichick. Every CFB program from Alabama to the FCS has a wall in their football facility that tracks their alumni and where they played in the NFL. Does Bill Belichick have some secret formula for NFL success that someone like Kirby Smart, Ryan Day, or even Kirk Ferentz can’t figure out? Information on NFL training and development is ubiquitous at all levels of the sport. You don’t need Bill Belichick to tell you how to make it.

Similarly, the calculus on recruiting has changed whether people want to admit it or not. 10 years ago, that NFL board in the football facility was sometimes the only recruiting tool you needed. Every college player has NFL aspirations and the biggest factor in recruiting was who could get me to the league? Now with NIL, the calculus is who can pay me the most money. Every school has a state-of-the-art weight room, smoothie bar, and can outline a 10-step plan to get little Johnny to the NFL in 3 or 4 years. The differentiator is NIL. College kids are now delaying their entrance to the next level because they can make more guaranteed money for longer in college assuming they’re not top picks or they know they can’t make it at all (see: Armando Bacot & RJ Davis). Whether Belichick embraces NIL or not is not the problem, the onus is on the UNC boosters to fork over sums of cash like SMU and Miami have done to make themselves competitive in college athletics today. 

Which brings us to the unknown. If I were a UNC fan I’d pray that the boosters would be bringing Belichick in to be a quasi-GM and run the program like an NFL organization and he’d have the money to do so. If so, then I can see why this would be an appealing hire but I’m not bullish on UNC’s boosters ponying up for the first time ever at a basketball school that can’t even bring in the best basketball recruits in the nation currently (see: AJ Dybantsa). For sake of argument, let’s say they do and Belichick has a trove of riches to play with. That’d merely get UNC on the same NIL playing field as the top SEC and Big 10 schools. And as I mentioned, if money is equal, I don’t think Belichick is a massive difference maker in terms of NFL prospects between being coached at Georgia or Texas and UNC with Bill. Would UNC attract higher-end players? Of course, but Mack Brown did that too, the problem was he couldn’t coach them. Is Bill Belichick and his staff of NFL rejects (Matt Patricia, Josh McDaniels, his own son) capable of doing so? I guess we’ll find out. 

#22 Army (11-1) vs Navy (8-3): ARMY -6.5, O/U 39.5 - Saturday 3:00 pm ET CBS in Landover, MD

Army/Navy is awesome every year, but we may very well be in store for an all-timer on Saturday as both of these squads are having fantastic years and have good enough offenses to potentially take us away from the 13-9 slugfest that this game usually is. For a while there it looked like this game may have very real playoff implications - Navy got off to a 6-0 start and was ranked for a couple of weeks, while Army started 10-0 before falling to Notre Dame a few weeks ago. Regardless, we’re looking forward to watching Army QB Bryson Daily hurl his body at defenders in one of the best atmospheres in college football while Navy will try to do what they always do in this game - have some random dude go nuts and become a legend in their program’s history. This is as big of a banger as you’ll ever get in the Army/Navy rivalry and despite what we said about the offenses earlier, it’s a rite of passage that you bet the under in this game. There’s no right or wrong in this game except not watching. Enjoy.

Bowl Season Preview: Part 1

Cricket Celebration Bowl - Jackson State (11-2) vs South Carolina State (9-2): 

JSU -1.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday, 12/14 12:00 pm ET ABC

Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta

Sponsor: Cricket Wireless! The most mundane prepaid cell phone provider out there, but that doesn’t stop them from creating annoying ass commercials. Should you be surprised that they were hacked over the summer and every consumer was subject to a data breach? Of course not, and if you find yourself in need of a burner phone we hope you’ll use TracFone. 

One Reason to Watch: The Celebration Bowl has a tendency to be a banger, and according to people who know HBCU ball better than we do, these two teams are two of the best non-Deion HBCU squads we’ve seen in years. There are no other games on at noon on Saturday and at a minimum, we’re certain the halftime show will be entertaining.

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl - South Alabama (6-6) vs Western Michigan (6-6): 

USA -8, O/U 59.5 - Saturday, 12/14 9:00 pm ET ESPN

Location: Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, AL which seems to be a nondescript but historic stadium that’s primarily used for high school football. Seems fitting for this matchup.

Sponsor: When you ask Google what IS4S, or Integrated Solutions for Systems, does as an organization it tells you that they are “on the leading edge of assured position, navigation, and timing (A-PNT), electronic warfare (EW), electronic support (ES), munitions and payload S&T, energetics and command and control systems.” We are far too stupid to know what any of that means but “electronic warfare” sounds scary so we’re glad they’re on the “leading edge”, I guess.

One Reason to Watch: Last year, South Alabama played their bowl game against Eastern Michigan, and the game ended like this. Perhaps Western Michigan can incite an even bigger brawl?

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl - #25 Memphis (10-2) vs West Virginia (6-6): 

MEM -2.5, O/U 56.5 - Tuesday, 12/17 9:00 pm ET ESPN

Location: Toyota Stadium in Frisco which is the home of the MLS FC Dallas. This stadium used to be called Pizza Hut Park which is a far better name.

Sponsor: Scooter’s Coffee is a national chain founded in Nebraska. Their menu currently features the Iceberry Ignite Red Bull Infusion and the Iced Queen Frostine Sugar Cookie Latte. I’m sure United Healthcare is licking their chops at the people drinking those. 

One Reason to Watch: These two offenses are actually pretty fun! Both squads have good quarterbacks who like to sling it around in Garrett Greene (WVU) and Seth Henigan (Memphis), and it appears there will be hardly any opt-outs on either side. It’s either this or The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills Tuesday at 9:00, so this may be a two-TV type of night.

Boca Raton Bowl - Western Kentucky (8-5) vs James Madison (8-4): 

JMU -7, O/U 53.5 - Wednesday, 12/18 5:30 pm ET ESPN

Location: This game is being played at FAU’s stadium which is called “FAU Stadium”. We respect the simplicity in this age of shameless corporatization, but now that nearby FIU named their stadium “Pitbull Stadium” earlier this year, we’re petitioning for an official stadium partnership at FAU. DJ Khaled Stadium - It’s Da Best.

Sponsor: There isn’t a title sponsor this year which is a reprieve from having to write about RoofClaims.com last year. So let’s learn about the city of Boca Raton. While it’s considered one of the safest cities in Florida, unsurprisingly there is still heavy drug smuggling and Boca has ties to the mob, specifically the Gambino familia. That’s all it takes to be considered one of the safest? Anyways, famous people from Boca you ask? Marilyn Manson, Pete Rose, Vince McMahon, Ruth Madoff (yes, that Madoff). 

One Reason to Watch: A lot of bowl games between G5 teams are absolute nonsense, but at the very least we’re getting two very proud programs that view themselves as legitimate contenders to be the G5 representative in future playoffs. It’s been a bit of a down year for both the Hilltoppers and the Dukes, but it wouldn’t shock us at all if both of these teams were back at the top of their respective conferences next year. This game will mean a lot to both - they’ll be trying hard - which means it at least won’t be complete and utter nonsense like most bowl games are these days. We’ll take it.

Art of Sport LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk - California (6-6) vs #24 UNLV (10-3): 

CAL -1.5, O/U 51.5 - Wednesday, 12/18 9:00 pm ET ESPN

Location: SoFi Stadium in LA, the sight of the University of Georgia’s slaughtering of TCU two years ago. That’s the only thing we have to say about that.

Sponsor: Art of Sport which we certainly have never heard of is “a complete line of daily essential body and skin care products built exclusively for athletes, by athletes.” If you’re in search of deodorant and want to shell out $26 for a pack of two look no further. Wanna be Barstool commentator Gronk surely approves.

One Reason to Watch: We were admittedly more excited for this one before Cal QB Fernando Mendoza announced he’d be entering the transfer portal while UNLV head coach Barry Odom left for Purdue, but this will still be a fun late-night game with some really exciting players like Cal’s Jadyn Ott and UNLV’s Ricky White. Big stadium, fun teams, late on a weekday before Christmas. We’ll be there.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Georgia Southern (8-4) vs Sam Houston (9-3): 

GASO -5.5, O/U 46.5 - Thursday, 12/19 7:00 pm ET ESPN2

Location: Caesar’s Superdome in NOLA, where Georgia Southern will do the honors of breaking the turf in for their Big Brother Dawgs ahead of the Sugar Bowl on New Years. We’re curious to see how many Georgia Southern fans make the journey. New Orleans has seen it all, but if there’s one thing they may not be prepared for, it’s a mass amount of Georgia Southern fans showing up in the middle of the week.

Sponsor: R+L Carriers have been a sponsor of this bowl for the past few years and good for them because under no other circumstances would we be willing to write about a freight shipping company. They must be taking a page out of the Saudi Arabian handbook and sports washing their way out of a PR mess. They’ve been in the news recently for sex discrimination by refusing to hire women to loading jobs and are currently being sued for a diesel spill in Cincinnati that leaked into a creek and killed over 2,000 animals. 

One Reason to Watch: Pretty fun game we’ve got here! Georgia Southern chucks the ball around with no regard for safety, and Sam Houston is looking to pull off a 10 win season in their second year of FBS ball after going 3-9 in year one. Both of these teams are fiery and will want to end their seasons on a high note - this will be an entertaining one in NOLA.

StaffDNA Cure Bowl - Ohio (10-3) vs Jacksonville State (9-4): 

OHIO -1.5, O/U 53.5 - Friday, 12/20 12:00 pm ET ESPN

Location: Camping World Stadium in Orlando which is hosting a ridiculous three bowl games this year.

Sponsor: Oh a staffing company for travel nurses. This is a new one and one of the reasons your neighbors own multiple Airbnb properties that barely pass local zoning ordinances.

One Reason to Watch: This one could get messy in the best way possible. After winning the MAC, Ohio coach Tim Albin accepted the head coaching job at Charlotte while Jacksonville State’s head coach Rich Rodriguez is returning to Morgantown and becoming the head coach at West Virginia once again. Two conference-winning programs without head coaches and a billion transfer portal entries? Yes, please. 

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl - Tulane (9-4) vs Florida (7-5): 

FLA -12, O/U 51.5 - Friday, 12/20 3:30 pm ET ESPN

Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, which in our opinion is a largely miserable venue for bowl games. It’ll be a home crowd for the Gators, though, so maybe the environment isn’t as completely lifeless as other bowl games are sure to be.

Sponsor: Advertising mortgages in Tampa, FL? Hit the nail on the head there and we’re sure they’re super cheap these days. And since we were curious, what the hell does Gasparilla mean? Turns out it’s a nickname for a pirate named Jose Gaspar who terrorized the coast of Florida in the early 1800s. He’d capture women and send them to an island off Fort Myers where they’d become concubines. Jose Gaspar, the original Florida Man. 

One Reason to Watch: Out of all the early bowl games this might be the one with the most brand recognition, especially with Florida’s hot finish to the season. However, we’ll be watching Tulane’s backup QB Ty Thompson in what amounts to a transfer portal showcase. Starting QB Darian Mensah was one of the best QBs in the G5 this year and he’s already jumped in the portal and committed to Duke. See what you could’ve had UNC? Thompson is a former 5-star QB who started at Oregon but was a backup to Mensah all season. A big showing here could skyrocket him up the transfer portal rankings and onto your favorite team next fall. 

Myrtle Beach Bowl - Coastal Carolina (6-6) vs UTSA (6-6): 

UTSA -6.5, O/U 58.5 - Monday, 12/23 11:00 am ET ESPN

Location: Coastal Carolina’s home stadium with that god-awful teal turf.

Sponsor: As embarrassing as it is to admit, Rand and the Fisher Family have spent their fair share of time in Dirty Myrtle and Spanish Galleon. Unless you’re under the age of 21, it’s in your best interest to look at literally any other beach on the East Coast if you’re considering a vacation. I’ve never been to Atlantic City, NJ but I’d bet my life that it’s better than Myrtle.

One Reason to Watch: Don’t think you’ll need much of a reason to tune in here if you are an unfortunate soul who has to work at 11 am on the Monday before Christmas but in case you are…UTSA has a high-powered offense and is going to put up gobs of points here. Couldn’t think of a better way to pass 3.5 hours as you inch closer to Christmas break. 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Northern Illinois (7-5) vs Fresno State (6-6): 

NIU -2.5, O/U 42.5 - Monday, 12/23 2:30 pm ET ESPN

Location: Boise State’s Smurf Turf, which, enough said. We’ll be tuned in.

Sponsor: Thanks to doing this bowl preview last year, we were made aware of the mascot named Spuddy Buddy. It’s perfect, no notes. We’ll slice that busty nugget up ourselves and dump him in a vat of boiling oil.

One Reason to Watch: The winning coach gets a bucket of fries dumped on them and there’s a fat ass potato running around the field with hamburger helper gloves on. What more do you want from a bowl game?

Hawai’i Bowl - South Florida (6-6) vs San Jose State (7-5): 

SJSU -3, O/U 62.5 - Tuesday, 12/24 8:00 pm ET ESPN

Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, the temporary stadium that Hawai’i has been playing in since their main stadium started quite literally sinking into the ground a few years ago. We’re sure that both fan bases will have tremendous showings here on Christmas Eve.

Sponsor: There’s no formal sponsor and Hawai’i is awesome so let’s talk about why the bowl game is here and not at the famed Aloha Bowl. During COVID, the Aloha Bowl was condemned and deemed unsuitable to host fans or events. Therefore, Hawai’i has been forced to play all their home games at a glorified high school soccer stadium that can only seat 15k. Get your shit together Hawai’i and build a stadium that’s worthy of the Rainbow Warriors. 

One Reason to Watch: If watching a bowl game in Hawai’i between two nondescript teams as an appetizer to falling asleep on the couch to It’s A Wonderful Life isn’t enough then let us interest you in Nick Nash - SJSU’s WR who is leading the nation in receiving yards. Also, there might be a program out there we mentioned in this newsletter that may have buyer’s remorse for not hiring a certain Army head coach. If you want proof of concept that a former academy head coach can succeed and not run the triple option, watch SJSU who is coached by former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo. 

GameAbove Sports Bowl - Pittsburgh (7-5) vs Toledo (7-5): 

PITT -9, O/U 51.5 - Thursday, 12/26 2:00 pm ET ESPN

Location: Ford Field in Detroit, which seems fitting for a “Pittsburgh versus Toledo” bowl game the day after Christmas.

Sponsor: GameAbove is a strategic investment company blah blah blah bring back QuickLane as the title sponsor. It makes this game even more unwatchable and/or unplayable (see below).

One Reason to Watch: Pittsburgh might be looking for one reason to play in this game. After starting the season 7-0 they lost their last five and now are being sent to Detroit to play a MAC team the day after Christmas. Their level of (dis)interest in this game will have us tuning in.

Rate Bowl - Rutgers (7-5) vs Kansas State (8-4): 

KSU -7, O/U 51.5 - Thursday, 12/26 5:30 pm ET ESPN

Location: The Diamondbacks Chase Field in Phoenix. Yeah sure, why not.

Sponsor: Longtime readers might remember this story but anytime the mortgage company Guaranteed Rate comes up we have to mention their other hilarious naming rights debacle. First, you should know that the Chicago White Sox suck. Second, Guaranteed Rate bought the Sox Stadium naming rights a few years back for tens of millions of dollars. The problem is, Guaranteed Rate’s logo features a very large and prominent red arrow pointing down. The White Sox asked them to use signage that does not include the big red arrow and the company told them to kick rocks. 

One Reason to Watch: Rutgers is one of the most boring teams in the country, but this is an opportunity to watch KSU QB Avery Johnson try to catapult himself into having the type of 2025 that many people thought he’d have here in 2024. He’s an exciting player and will be looking forward to trying to pick apart an injury-depleted Rutgers defense.

68 Ventures Bowl - Arkansas State (7-5) vs Bowling Green (7-5): 

BGSU -6.5, O/U 50.5 - Thursday, 12/26 9:00 pm ET ESPN

Location: South Alabama’s Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, AL

Sponsor: 68 Ventures is a Gulf Coast real estate development company with no public scandals or misdeeds. Sad! However, they might need to make a statement that some of their employees are real people and not Confederate generals. I mean listen to these names: HR Harvey, Harlan Winn, Bragg Foshee, Cameron Thatcher, Caldwell Cunningham, and Hansen Babington. 

One Reason to Watch: There are some NFL Draft nerds reading this who have asked us to point out CFB players who we know are going to be big names when the NFL Draft rolls around but are relatively unknown right now. Let us introduce you to Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr. who has confirmed he is playing in this game. Fannin Jr. is one of the three finalists for the John Mackey Award which is given to the nation’s top tight end. He. is second in the nation among all receivers in receptions and receiving yards. Don’t discredit the fact he plays in the MAC as opposing defenses have done everything imaginable to stop this man, but they can’t. When your decrepit NFL franchise drafts a Bowling Green TE in the 2nd round next spring, you’ll have reason to celebrate.

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: I will be in NYC this weekend hanging out with friends and family. While I’ll be in the City at the same time as the Heisman Trophy ceremony I won’t go because the public can’t attend and I couldn’t think of anything more boring than watching that ceremony. Give me a $14 Stella, a dive bar, and the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl instead.

Tate: I’m remaining home in Atlanta to attend a friend's Christmas party on Friday and a family Christmas party on Saturday. I am ready to own four more pairs of socks on Sunday than I did at the time of this writing.

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Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this endeavor. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.