Simba, Nemo, & Cookie Monster - Predicting the CFB Season: Part 1

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Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. The opening weekend of college football is a mere three weeks away but don’t sleep on Week 0 which kicks off in Dublin with Georgia Tech and Florida State on August 24th. That means we’re less than 2 weeks out from kicking our 2x-a-week cadence back into gear. We’re done milling around like a white dude in a high school parking lot waiting on his drug dealer, it’s time to get to business which means it’s prediction time. Below we predict the 2024 CFB season with 5 different questions and then dive into regular season win totals. Next week we will give out our conference champion and playoff picks as well as more win totals for the degenerates out there. So let’s get to cooking more so than the entire Republican party currently is by trying to find an attack line on the most suburban white dude in America. Spoiler: It's hard to get under the skin of a dude who regularly replaces his air filters and deeply cares about how much Kohl’s Cash he has. Furthermore, he ran a mean 4-4 defense back in the day.

Quick Hitters

You may have already seen the news by now, but the proud rule-following, moral-leading Michigan Wolverines are about to be hit with a series of Level One NCAA rule violations - including some for current head coach Sherrone Moore - following the Connor Stallions sign-stealing saga that came to light in the middle of their national championship run last year. We remain heavily skeptical that punishment of any real significance will actually come down on our beloved northern elitists, but it at least gives us more content to continue to make fun of them. 

The world-renowned artist Pitbull - yes, Mr. 305, Mr. Worldwide himself - has bought the naming rights for FIU’s stadium. After hours of consideration using his legendary artistic creativity, he finally came up with the best name anybody could have ever dreamed of: Pitbull Stadium. Hell yeah. He’s paying $1.5M over the next five years and has announced that he’ll be releasing an “FIU Anthem”, which is the most exciting thing to happen for FIU Football since this moment.

It’s been a rough week on the injury front in fall camp. Texas starting running back CJ Baxter, who is an absolute stud, tore his LCL on Tuesday and will miss the entire season. We’re not writing Texas off by any means, but Baxter was set to become a household name as a home run threat out of the backfield, so this loss really stings. The same goes for Notre Dame left tackle Charles Jagusah, who will miss the season after tearing his pec last Saturday and apparently has nobody worth a damn backing him up. Good luck with that Texas A&M defensive line in Week 2, Irish. Yeesh. Nebraska also lost their left tackle which is concerning, but they could always move Dylan “Cookie Monster” Raiola over there considering he already has the body for it. Tennessee lost Jourdan Thomas, their best defensive back and “leader” according to Josh Huepel, for the season which makes Tennessee’s highly concerning secondary a potential nightmare situation headed into the year. Injuries suck no matter who it is, but such is life in fall camp.

Season Predictions

Heisman Time: Who’s sitting at Radio City Music Hall come December and who wins?

Rand: Since 2017 out of 26 attendees there have only been 4 non-QBs - Ohio State DE Chase Young, Alabama WR DeVonta Smith, Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson, and Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. - invited to Radio City. Aside from Smith who won they were sympathy invites so I’m going to hedge my bets because I’m a genius and pick all QBs. Give me Georgia QB Carson Beck, Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel, and Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold. Beck & Gabriel aren’t going out on a limb by any means but if Arnold pops as many expect him to (ahem, Tate), he’s going to put up some gaudy numbers. I would go with Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava but they play Georgia late in the season in Athens and I don’t think he’s going to have much fun that day. 

I’m interested to see how both of Deion’s kids (paternal or otherwise) fare because if Hunter or Sanders have full, healthy years they should put up some gaudy stats. They’re already media darlings for voting and there’s a lower threshold than most to earn invites. I don’t see Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon III getting here because he’d have to put up better numbers than his ridiculous 2023 campaign and the same goes for UNC RB Omarion Hampton. Texas QB Quinn Ewers has never played a full season and while there are intriguing WRs out there, they’re not at blue blood schools which seems to be a prerequisite for an NYC invite. I think Michigan DB Will Johnson or Ohio State S Caleb Downs are more likely to get invited. Particularly Downs who returns punts, has name recognition already, and Ohio State has toyed with the idea of throwing him at running back which might be summer smoke but helps my narrative. 

Tate: Dillon Gabriel is an absolute guarantee (barring injury of course) to at least be a finalist given the bajillion yards he’s about to throw for on a playoff team, so he’s an automatic pick for me. I’ll follow Rand and go with Beck as well, who had a stellar year last year but will likely be even better statistically this season as a second-year starter. I’m going to go with Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart as my third finalist because I think Ole Miss is going to contend for a playoff spot in some high-leverage, high TV viewership spots and we know Ole Miss will put up points as always. The fourth invite is often a courtesy invite to a guy who had a great season but has no real chance of winning, either because of his statistics not measuring up to the other finalists, a lack of team success, or both… but maybe has some TV/internet intrigue around him? That screams Kansas’ Jalon Daniels to me, so I’ll go with him. 

My dark horse here is Arizona’s Noah Fifita, who is the perfect combination of fun, cute, and really good for this award, but heading into the season it’s hard to predict that anyone but Gabriel wins this award, so that’s my pick.

Breakout Player: What’s a name the general public doesn’t know yet but will soon?

Tate: We have alluded to him before, but the world is about to quickly become very aware of Ohio State true freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith. On3 Recruiting had him as the #1 overall best player in the country in the 2024 class which is insane for a wide receiver, but not that insane if you know Jeremiah Smith. As somebody who has intensely followed recruiting since I was a small boy, I can say with absolute confidence that Smith is the best receiver to come out of high school since Julio Jones and AJ Green both came out in 2008. He’s nearly 6 '4 and strong as hell at 215-220 pounds, and has great speed and agility to pair with a really strong jumping ability and catch radius. He’s a freak recruit and while I’m not predicting a Heisman yet considering he’s a freshman receiver with a somewhat questionable quarterback situation, I am certain that you will recognize him as one of the best players in the sport within three minutes of watching him play for the first time.

Honorable mentions: Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold (they told Dillon Gabriel, my Heisman pick, to leave so they could start him), Auburn Wide Receiver Cam Coleman (would’ve been the #1 receiver recruit in any other class were it not for Smith also being in it), FSU wide receiver Hykeem Williams (big tall fast), and Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles.

Rand: I’ve mentioned him before (literally the question above) but I’m ready to put pen to paper and call my breakout player this year as Tennessee’s QB Nico Iamaleava. The 6’6, 5-star recruit has been on campus for a year plus now and has all the tools in the world to excel in Josh Heupel’s “Launch the Ball Downfield 30 Times a Game” offense. The wide receiver room led by Bru McCoy and Squirrel White Jr. (real name) is in the top half of the SEC while the OL is unquestionably one of the best in the conference if not the nation. More importantly, this defense might suck (aside from DE James Pearce Jr.) given they lost legitimately their entire secondary from 2023 so I expect some shootouts on Rocky Top. Additionally, the schedule isn’t that bad by SEC standards. Trips to Athens and Norman loom, Bama visits, and they play NC State in Charlotte but outside of that, they’ll be favored in their other 8 games. 

Honorable mentions: Maryland QB MJ Morris (formerly of NC State), Nebraska WR Jahmal Banks (QB Dylan Raiola has to throw to someone), Miami DE Rueben Bain (sack monster), and Kentucky WR Barion Brown (who can also run it). 

Lastly, a moment of appreciation, awe, or general awareness for South Carolina WR Nyck Harbor. This might be his first mention in this newsletter mainly because he hasn’t done anything of note on the football field…yet. Harbor is a sophomore, former 5-star recruit who grew up playing DE but switched to WR and doubles as a South Carolina track star. He didn’t compete in spring ball because of track season but didn’t compete in the Olympic trials despite running a 20.20 200-meter dash. For reference, 100m Olympic gold medalist Noah Lyles broke the American trial record with a 19.53 second 200m and he’s 6 inches shorter and 90lbs (!!) lighter. 

Coaching Carousel: Who gets fired first?

Rand: At this time last year, the presumptive sacrifice to the coaching gulag was West Virginia’s Neal Brown who saved his job (for now) after rattling off wins over Pitt, Texas Tech, and TCU before the calendar hit October. The carousel didn’t get spinning until Texas A&M, Boise State, and Mississippi State handed out pink slips in mid-November. This year, my vote is Billy Napier of Florida who faces Miami (FL), Texas A&M, UCF, Tennessee, and Kentucky before Halloween. If it gets ugly in the first half, Florida might have to take him behind the barn before they close with Georgia, at Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and at FSU all in succession. My honorable mention is Dave Aranda at Baylor. After a 12-2 high point in 2021, the Bears slipped to a 3-9 record last year, and playing the schedule game again they face presumptive Big 12 title contenders Iowa State, Utah, and Oklahoma State all before November. 

Tate: I actually entirely disagree with Rand on Napier - I don’t think he’s getting fired unless things are absolutely disastrous. UF’s administration is pretty chaotic at the moment, highlighted by the already controversial President Ben Sasse recently announcing he’d be stepping down in the coming months. Athletic Director Scott Stricklin may himself be on the chopping block if his Napier hire fails within a few years just as his Dan Mullen hire did previously (which was preceded by his firing of Jim McElwain which many in the industry saw as premature), so the lack of clear leadership at UF indicates to me that Napier might be safer than one would think. Clearly, I have better opinions than Rand.

I will, sadly, go with Sam Pittman at Arkansas. The Pitt Boss is a beloved figure in Fayetteville but the Hogs have high expectations for themselves, and Pittman’s age combined with missing a bowl last year and only a 4.5 preseason win total this year leads me to believe Arkansas may try to jump the line and start their search process before anybody else joins the fray. Arkansas has to play a good Oklahoma State team early, and there’s a very real chance they start 0-4 in SEC play before November hits. It would be remarkable if Pittman coached himself into job security at all this season, and I think Arkansas may pull the plug early if his Hogs look helpless out there. 

2nd Year Jump: Which coach do you expect to take a step forward in their second year?

Tate: I’ve talked before about my belief in Matt Rhule’s eventual success at Nebraska, so I feel I have no other choice but to go with him. His first year squad looked more organized and better-coached than the Huskers ever did under Scott Frost and were only held back by the fact that they did not have a legitimate quarterback on the roster. That has been largely alleviated with Dylan Raiola coming in, who can really sling the football despite his apparent addiction to eating ice cream for every meal. The defense is going to be good, there are some playmakers on offense, and the schedule sets up nicely - if Nebraska gets by Colorado in September, there is a very real chance they’re 7-0 before they take on Ohio State. I’m not quite ready to predict a playoff berth here, but I’d be very surprised if we didn’t look back on Rhule’s second year as a huge stepping stone to Nebraska establishing itself in the upper half of the new Big Ten. 

Rand: Given the rough schedule the W/L record might look the same but I’ve got my eyes on Wisconsin to be more formidable this year. Luke Fickell enters his second year after leading Cincinnati to the playoff and let’s not forget, this dude was on the short list for every high major job in the country just a few years ago. Ohio State, USC, Michigan etc etc. In the second year under Fickell and “I hate my defense” OC Phil Longo (formerly of UNC) the Air Raid should play a more prominent role in Madison whether the Badger fanbase likes it or not. Senior QB Tyler Van Dyke is here from Miami after meh sophomore and junior campaigns but won ACC ROY in 2021. Akin to DJU and Clemson, we will find out pretty quickly if he was the problem or if the program is at fault. Hard to give Miami credit for anything they’ve done in the past 20 years but I digress. 7 offensive starters are back along with 8 defensive starters and most importantly their punter and kicker! With one of the best defensive units in the conference (Ohio State & Iowa would like a word) and another year of familiarity under Longo’s system especially with the WRs, I wouldn’t sleep on the Badgers this year so long as they don’t sleep on South Dakota in Week 2. Fickell & Co. welcome the Crimson Tide in Week 3 and late season tilts against Oregon, Iowa, and Penn State will show us just how much progress the Badgers made in year 2 under Fickell even if the W/L record doesn’t reflect it. 

Game of the Year: Which regular season game are you most excited for this fall?

Rand: Whatever Tate says below (unless it’s a Wake Forest game) is likely irrelevant because the answer is Ohio State at Oregon on October 12th in Eugene. Both teams will be 5-0 entering the matchup and there’s a distinct possibility this will be the first of three matchups (Big 10 Championship & national championship) this year between the two schools. Ohio State has the best roster in college football and there’s a good case to be made Oregon has the second best Rand ducks (pun intended) from the Georgia fans. Ohio State reportedly spent $20 million in NIL on this roster after watching Michigan cheat their way to a natty while Oregon isn’t far behind them as they try to win their first national championship ever before Phil Knight walks through the pearly gates - he’s 86. Last time they played in 2021 Oregon stunned the Buckeyes 35-28 in Columbus which adds to the intrigue here. This entire weekend will be appointment viewing as you’ve also got Red River, Ole Miss at LSU, and what I can only assume Tate’s answer is below: Clemson at Wake Forest. Take it away Tate!

Tate: The audacity of Rand to say that my answer is “irrelevant” and then not even mention the actual most intriguing game of the year is wild. There will not be a more exciting, anxious, and rambunctious atmosphere in college football this season than the one that will be in College Station the Saturday after Thanksgiving when Texas A&M hosts Texas. One of the sport’s best rivalries died when the Aggies joined the SEC back in 2012, and the significance of its return cannot be understated. These two fanbases genuinely hate each other, and the narratives around each program have been heightened - for different reasons - in recent years. Texas A&M was blatantly unhappy that the rest of the league agreed to add Texas as A&M was able to take a step up in recruiting over the last decade largely because they could claim they were the only SEC team in Texas. That’s gone now, Texas is back, and neither of these teams has broken through to win that elusive natty in the past nearly twenty years that both fanbases so desperately seek. There could be legitimate playoff hopes for both teams on the line, there will likely be brawls both inside and outside of the stadium, and nobody gets louder than Texas A&M fans when they see their Yell Leaders in their cute, modest, but still unbelievably sexy outfits. It is going to be electric.

Regular Season Win Totals

Just like Texas, we’re baaaaaaaaaccccccckkkkkkkkk. OnlyRans & Tate’s “Great” Picks have been hibernating like grizzly bears since last December and once again, we’re going to make some over/under regular season win total picks. Speaking of bears, the dead bear cub RFK Jr. kindly delivered to Central Park fared better than Rand’s atrocious 3-7 mark from last year while Tate finished with a respectable 5-3 record. Past results don’t necessarily indicate future success but given Tate’s overall betting record from last year (29-48-2), here’s hoping it does. 

OnlyRans

Missouri under 9.5 wins: I’m pumping the brakes on Missouri as the deep state SEC sleeper team of the year. On Monday they were picked #11 nationally in the USA Today Preseason Coaches Poll and there are high expectations in the Show-Me State with QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden III returning after an 11-2 campaign last year. They were 4-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year and three of those games were to Middle Tennessee, Memphis, and Florida. The fourth was a last-second 61-yard field goal to beat Kansas State by the “Thicker Kicker” who is off to greener pastures, or a literal pasture. Additionally, they were +10 in turnover margin last year which was one of the best in the nation. I expect regression to the mean for a Missouri team that’s flashy on paper coupled with an easy schedule yet still has to go to Tuscaloosa, College Station, the other Columbia, and host Oklahoma. Show-Me the money, Mizzou. 

Iowa over 7.5 wins: I don’t know how they keep doing this but Iowa is a wagon of which I must ride. In the same vein as the Nemo in Finding Nemo or the Battle of Thermopylae (The battle from the movie 300 you uncultured swine) centuries from now, there will be tales passed down through generations detailing Kirk Ferentz’s tenure in Iowa City. Epic odes will be told on front porches and novels will be written detailing how he overcame the odds, won more with less, insert underdog trope here, etc even though 99.9% of it was self-inflicted. What Ferentz has done given the blatant nepotism and inhumane neglect of offensive football is like Simba rightfully reclaiming the throne in The Lion King but it turns out he shot his dad and he’s a stubborn asshole. Anywho…guess what? Iowa has a ridiculously good defense (again) and outside of a trip to Columbus their hardest game is…Nebraska? At UCLA? Wisconsin? New OC Tim Lester is here after Kirk fired his kid but what does it matter? Excluding COVID, they haven’t won less than 8 games since 2014. Ca-caw!

Arizona under 8.5 wins: Like Missouri, Arizona is a sexy sleeper pick to make some noise nationally this year. Let’s hold the horses here and evaluate. Is anyone in the world a sexy sleeper? Alright, I’ll pin that answer for another time. Yes, QB Noah Fifita & WR Tetairoa McMillian form perhaps the best 1-2 combo in the nation but a lot is going against them. For starters, their head coach left for Washington so the entire coaching staff is new. Secondly, they’re entering a new conference and you can ask Miami, Nebraska, or any of the Big 12 schools from last year if they had a fun transition. Their defensive line projects to be one of the worst in the conference which isn’t ideal when you have to travel to Kansas State, Utah, and UCF - all of whom run the hell out of the ball and can easily play keep away from the Arizona offense. I’ll watch the shit out of Arizona this year because I think they’ll be a fun, spunky (I like that word) team but given the changes, I’ll be pleasantly surprised if this team gets to 9 wins.

Wake Forest over 4.5 wins: Homer pick? Perhaps, but it’s my newsletter and my infallible OnlyRans reputation on the line. I’ll break down my reasons for meager optimism (wow that’s depressing) when I fully preview Wake in a few weeks but it’s pretty simple here. Competent QB play along with the above-average skill position talent and stout front seven should result in 5 wins against the following 7: NC A&T, Virginia, Louisiana, Connecticut, @Stanford, Cal, Duke. Right!?!?!? I f*cking hope so. 

Vanderbilt over 2.5 wins: Can this team beat Alcorn State? Yes. Can this team beat Ball State at home? Yes, but only because Ball State is not the creme dela creme of the MAC. Alright…can the team hailing from the best football conference in the country go to Atlanta, GA, and beat Georgia State in a converted baseball stadium? God, I hope so. Anchor Down!

Personality Hats are in

Fashion has spoken, and the personality hat is all the rage these days. You know what that means? It means it’s a great time to put your logo on a hat.

Talking about all the rage these days, you’re going to want to make it a Branded Bills hat. They make quality merch people actually want to wear.

Don’t just take it from us, see what a happy client has to say about the branded hats they just ordered:

“They're wearing them to bowling alleys, sporting events, etc.” Rebecca Ferguson, Empire CAT

If you want to make a statement with your company merch, hit up Branded Bills.

Tate’s Great Picks

Notre Dame under 10.5 wins: I already liked this before the news of starting left tackle Charles Jagusah’s season ending injury, and now I really struggle to see this team going 11-1. I firmly believe they’ll lose to A&M in Week 2 with Jagusah now out because A&M’s D-Line is filled with freaks of nature and ND apparently has no faith in the guys they’ll now have to try out at left tackle. A loss there would mean the Irish have to rip off ten straight wins to go over this total, and I just don’t see it. They’ve struggled to score points consistently for several years and while the defense is always solid, it’s not like it’s a unit filled with unbelievable talent that you just can’t score on. I’m very confident that they’ll drop one or two more of their games against Louisville, Florida State, Georgia Tech, or USC. Get it on this now if you can because I bet this total drops before the season kicks off.

Nebraska over 7.5 wins: I believe I’ve now said “Nebraska could be 7-0 headed into their game against OSU” three separate times in 4th & Forever editions including this one, so I both won’t repeat myself and will stick to my guns and predict they get at least 8 this year. Check out our “2nd year coaches” section above or just search “7-0 headed into…” in your email inbox to check out my full takes on the 2024 Cornhuskers.

Texas Tech over 7.5 wins: Let’s play the schedule game, shall we? Alcorn State, Washington State, North Texas, Arizona State, and Cincinnati to start the year. That’s very possibly a 5-0 start to the season and after a tough Arizona game on the road, the Red Raiders get Baylor at home. They also get both Colorado and West Virginia at home in November, and with the talent that (very good) head coach Joey McGuire has at his disposal, including 5-star freshman receiver Micah Hudson, they’re not going to be a sure out for the rest of the teams on their schedule either. I like this unit as a sleeper team in the Big 12 and barring major injuries, I see 8 wins here for sure.

Florida over 4.5 wins: Alright I hate the Florida Gators just as much as the next true blooded American, but 4.5 is crazy. Yes, the OOC schedule is tough starting with Miami in the opener, UCF midseason, and FSU to close. But none of those games are auto-losses by any stretch, and this team has way more talent than the liberal media is giving them credit for. They will get very solid QB play from Graham Mertz and should be better defensively than they were last season. The schedule is brutal as we’ve discussed ad nauseam, but this isn’t going to be an “easy” team to beat for anybody in the league. They’ll get 5.

Georgia over 10.5 wins: C’mon man.

ICYMI: Last Week’s Newsletter & T-Shirts

Unfortunately, it looks like last week’s newsletter might’ve gotten mixed up in your promotions tab if you use Gmail, and if you’re still using Yahoo or Hotmail get a grip. It’s not 2004. Last week we listed the Top 10 Reasons we’re excited about the upcoming college football season and then individually dove into our football travel schedules for the fall. Delta’s massive CrowdStrike issue didn’t damage our brand loyalty because, to sum up our planned adventures in a word: extensive. Catch up on that edition here.

Additionally, we still have t-shirts for sale. They’re $25 each and we can ship them to you if you don’t have plans to see either one of us in the next few months. We have mediums through 2XL and the easiest way to pay us is Venmo (@Rand-Fisher and @Tate-Smillie) but we accept all forms of payment except Russian Rubles. Shoot us a text or email if you’d like to procure this Egyptian cotton masterpiece. 

Where in the World is Rand?

On Wednesday night I landed in Denver where I’ll be residing in an undisclosed Marriott property for the next three weeks. For security & paparazzi purposes I cannot tell you all which one but if you needed to find me after hours in the city there’s a very good chance I’ll slither my way to the beer deck of Coors Field during the Rockies homestand. Prost!

Texts of the Week

“It’s great to see that 4th & Forever email designers finally realize the marketing prowess and click momentum associated with the inclusion of UNC Chapel Hill imagery. Next time, just put a picture of Dean Smith in the newsletter header and your subscriber list will multiply like deformed fish in the Seine.” -Jay Reed after seeing we had two (!!) pictures of UNC football in last week’s newsletter. Just like the North Koreans, they’re brainwashed beyond repair. Sad, but you’ve gotta pander to your base every once in a while. 

“I feel bad for you every time you have to write about Wake Football.” -Same here Aunt Blandy, same here.

Have a great Thursday and we will talk to you next week.

Thank you for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.