This Won't Come Back to Bite Us - Predicting the CFB Season: Part 2

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Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We are now only 9 (!!) days away from real college football games being played, and it’ll get started at noon Eastern time in the heart of college football country: Dublin, Ireland. Whether it was conference previews, our takes on various court cases, or us ranting about our favorite aspects of the sport, we’ve sent thousands upon thousands of words to your inbox all offseason to get you all excited and prepared for what is shaping up to be one of the most interesting college football seasons ever. But talking season is officially over, and it’s time for us to call our shots as we predict our conference champions and playoff winners below. We’re 100% certain none of you would dare to make fun of us for these predictions in three months because you are all nice, gentle souls. Wouldn’t matter if you weren’t because we’re not getting anything wrong anyway, so enjoy!

SEC Survivor Pool

Before we get there, we wanted to highlight a competition our friend Jacob is running this fall - SEC Survivor Pool. The goal is to correctly pick one SEC team per week to win their game and be the last one standing. Both of us here at 4th & Forever have participated in recent years and we’ve had a blast with it and can’t recommend it enough unless you pick Vanderbilt to beat UNLV in Week 3 like we definitely did not do. We’ve both participated in the Survivor Pool over the past few years and it is an absolute blast - we highly recommend you join. For more information on the rules and registration visit secsurvivor.com. Sign-ups and payment are due by August 27th so if you’re interested make sure you hop in now.

Conference Championship Predictions

With the introduction of the 12-team playoff, there has never been a more important time to win your conference - or at least be in your conference championship game - and it comes at a time when the conferences themselves have never looked so different. Eight of the top ten in the preseason AP Poll reside in either the Big Ten or the SEC, which means a couple of things: 1) Those two leagues are going to be gauntlets, a season-long race for a select few playoff spots, and 2) Tate is going to reach a level of SEC bias that esteemed scholars have never thought possible. The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn a bye in the first round of the playoff which will likely be a very important factor in determining the eventual national championship in this new world of college football. We’re calling our shots here today - check out our conference championship predictions below.

Tate: I won’t bore you through explaining why I picked Miami of Ohio to win the MAC or why I think Kansas State is the best team in a league full of parity (hint: it’s coaching and the quarterback), so I’ll cut to the chase of what you’ll all be asking about: yes, I have Texas A&M appearing in the SEC Championship Game over Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, and LSU. Do I like that I’m doing this? Not one bit. Can I already envision people making fun of me when the Aggies lose their 5th game in mid-October? I’m already having nightmares about it. But something we’re going to all have to get used to in the new, divisionless SEC is that teams’ schedules are going to be far from equal when it comes to difficulty. We’ve talked ad nauseam about how hard Florida’s schedule is, about Georgia having to go on the road to play three top six teams, about how Oklahoma’s schedule is much harder than Texas’ in both team's first year in the league. But something you may have skipped over in our SEC preview is that Texas A&M’s schedule is an absolute cakewalk compared to other teams in the conference. A&M avoids Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. That leaves them with only Missouri, LSU, and Texas in terms of the league’s upper echelon, and all three of those games come at home, spread out weeks from each other. I’m not saying they’re going 12-0, but I am higher on A&M than the national media seems to be at this point, while I am lower on Texas - I really believe that game at Kyle Field against the Longhorns after Thanksgiving is going to have major playoff implications, and it’s going to be the type of rivalry game where you throw out logic and who you think is “better”. If QB Conner Weigman stays healthy and the offense can just put up a few touchdowns a game, that defense is going to be a nightmare for everybody in the SEC. Texas A&M is going to the playoff, folks.

Rand: Tate, you won’t have to wait until October 5th for someone to make fun of you because I’ll do it right now. If I picked TAMU to do anything noteworthy other than go 7-6 and win the Pop-Tarts Bowl, I’d also have to write a paragraph explaining why I don’t need to be admitted to an insane asylum. I, on the other hand, am clear-headed, devoid of SEC bias, and not being bankrolled by West Texas oil tycoons as I can only assume Tate is. Don’t let his Aggie pride distract you from the fact he picked Miami to go to their second ACC Championship Game in 20 years. I’m going to rapid-fire my reasoning which is articulated so coherently you’d have no other option but to agree with me fully. 

How many times have we gone through the “Is this the year” thing with Miami & NC State in the ACC? Too many to count and if it had ever been the year, they’d stop asking. Memphis has the best offense in a wide-open AAC and the best coach in the conference now that Willie Fritz is at Houston is UTSA’s Jeff Traylor. Let’s not overthink this in the Big 10 - it’s Ohio State & Oregon. Michigan doesn’t have a proven QB, plus a brutal schedule, and seems to be more worried about winning the PR battle with the NCAA right now. Additionally, I am staying strong and not getting sucked into the eternal Penn State x Drew Allar x ‘this is the year our offense will be explosive’ hype train. In a year of assumed parity and unpredictability in the Big 12 the only thing that you can count on is Mike Gundy being an SID’s worst nightmare yet winning double-digit games. 19 returning starters from a 10-4 2022 Cowboys squad including the nation's best RB Ollie Gordon. Another team that returns 19 starters and has a coach who didn’t suddenly forget how to coach football even with an early season loss to a nobody is Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. Book it for them to lose to Iowa 10-3 for the 13th year in a row but QB Rocco Becht is a breakout candidate. 

There’s something misleading about the word liberty because I don’t know what’s worse, the Liberty Mutual Limu Emu commercials or Liberty University selling their soul to the devil for football success, and it working. They’re going to waltz through CUSA again while WKU is going to score gobs of points. Toledo’s Jason Candle is the best coach in the MAC which is otherwise bereft of coaching talent while NIU has a senior-laden roster and will benefit from having to play Notre Dame and NC State. Boise State and Air Force are easy choices here given the next three best teams - Wyoming, Fresno State, and UNLV - either lost their coach and/or QB. Boise State and Air Force both lost their QB but Boise brought in the former #1 overall recruit Malachi Nelson while Air Force can throw any 5’11 muscle hamster back there and run the triple option down your throats. I sang my Neer praises a few weeks ago while Texas State is the least shitty Sun Belt West team. Hang a banner for that one Bobcats! Lastly, did people just forget that Alabama exists because Nick Saban is gone? Saban stacked top 3 recruiting classes on top of one another for the past two decades. The infrastructure, support, and most importantly, talent are still in T-Town and it starts with QB Jalen Milroe. There are unknowns, especially at the skill positions but this is still Alabama. Now that Saban is gone Ole Miss and LSU look bright, shiny, and novel like a Tesla but a quick look under the hood shows inconsistent and fallible leaders in Brian Kelly, Lane Kiffin, and Elon Musk. I’ll take the most dominant program in the last 20 years plus the new coach with a 104-12 overall coaching record.

Tate’s Playoff Predictions

Rand’s Playoff Predictions

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Regular Season Win Totals

Last week, we each doled out five regular season win total locks for you to go ahead and put future rent payments on. Since we’re generous, courteous people, we thought it’d be nice to hand out a few more freebies. 

Tate’s Great Picks

USF over 7.5 wins: Head Coach Alex Golesh took over a team that went 1-11 in 2022 and went 7-5 in 2023 - the Bulls return one of the country’s best quarterbacks in Byrum Brown who will be surrounded by some very good offensive talent, and while the front seven is still a question defensively, the secondary has a chance to be very good to slow teams down from keeping up with their offense. This is a dark horse in the AAC, I see 8 wins here (with a firm eye on that Miami game in Week 4 as an upset spot).

Western Kentucky over 7.5 wins: The Hilltoppers have won less than 8 games only once in the past six years, and they’re now one of the favorites to win the C-USA, the worst conference in the FBS. I am going to hammer this.

Georgia Tech over 4.5 wins: There is absolutely nothing cool about Georgia Tech, but a win total of 4.5 is absolutely nuts to me. Tech has one of the ACC’s best quarterbacks in Haynes King, they’re well coached and play hard, and the vibes are extremely high right now. I think this team is going bowling.

Texas A&M over 8.5: Need I say more than what I said above???

OnlyRans

Indiana over 5.5 wins: If there are small children in your vicinity please ask them to go in the other room because I’m predicting Indiana to make a bowl game and they should not be around such deviant behavior. The Hoosiers have a new coach but return 21 starters and outside of Ohio State and Michigan, I can convince myself into thinking they can win every game on their schedule. They won’t of course, but they can get to six.

West Virginia over 6.5 wins: The schedule is tough no doubt, but as I mentioned in our Big 12 preview, you can go far with the nation’s best running attack and a QB who doesn’t turn the ball over. Let the couches burn long into the Morgantown night.

Notre Dame under 10.5 wins: Assuming they lose to FSU at home in November I just need the Golden Domers to drop one @TAMU, @USC, or Louisville at home? I’ll take that bet. Marcus Freeman has also shown a tendency to play with his food (see loss to Marshall and close wins against Toledo) which I could see happening against the two best teams MAC teams in NIU and Miami (OH) or an upstart Georgia Tech team.

Washington State & Oregon State under 7.5 and 8.5 wins respectively: These two schools have 15 returning starters combined and even with a heavy Mountain West schedule, are the players and fans really going to get rowdy for a noon November kickoff against Wyoming or San Jose State?

ICYMI: T-Shirts

We still have t-shirts for sale. They’re $25 each and we can ship them to you if you don’t have plans to see either one of us in the next few months. We have mediums through 2XL and the easiest way to pay us is Venmo (@Rand-Fisher and @Tate-Smillie) but we accept all forms of payment except Russian Rubles. Shoot us a text or email if you’d like to procure this Egyptian cotton masterpiece. 

Where in the World is Rand?

Still in Denver where the weather is either a torrential downpour or 100 degrees and sunny, sometimes both within the same hour. 8 days down, 14 to go…

Texts of the Week

“Everyone slamming a Georgia Tech bet 10 days away from kickoff needs to be auto-referred to a gambling addiction hotline.” - Jack Zucker, who clearly intends to stay poor.

“If Rand gets that Vandy bet correct he should get to Blow the Admiral.” - Tom Smillie referencing the very cool, not at all funny Vanderbilt tradition

“Can someone get Stetson a beer.” - Alex Sztejnberg after Stetson Bennett threw his fourth INT of the Rams preseason game on Sunday

“When Kirby gets fired in 2026 for embezzling millions of hot dogs from Sanford, we will replace him with Dabo and never make the playoff again.” - Jack Zucker

Have a great Thursday and we will talk to you next week with our Week 0 preview!

Thank you for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.