Mormons, Mullets, & Margs - 2024 Big 12 Preview

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Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Is it just us or has every Zoom call this week begun with complaints from Midwesterners and Yankees acting like this heatwave is the most insufferable meteorological event in recorded human history? Well, Deborah from finance, go look up the weather in Riyadh and get back to us once you’re done buying those dumb feet mittens for your dog. 90 degrees is not going to kill you or your dog Pippa. What will kill us is if Rand & Tate have to spend one more week writing about hypothetical, theoretical, and even historical college football content. It’s time for preview season which means we’re writing about the future now. So grab some ice water Deborah and let’s dive into the first ever 4th & Forever conference preview.

Big 12 Preview

Last week, it was reported that the Big 12 was exploring selling the naming rights to their conference to a corporate sponsor like Allstate. This sent the CFB world into a tailspin like it always does when something changes in this sport ruled by anarchy. Who cares if the Big 12 is called the Allstate Big 12 or $1 Margaritas at Applebees Big 12? The schools will get a few million extra bucks a year but is it going to have a drastic impact on your college football viewing habits? Every bowl game already has a title sponsor including the Rose Bowl which is a corporate marketing demigod. If they could buy the San Gabriel Mountains and put a Tesla logo on the side of it, they would. Hell, the Premier League is called the Barclays Premier League and last we checked Chelsea and whatever other Saudi-funded teams over there are doing just fine. Our only request is that if the Big 12 does sell their naming rights, just do it right. Call it the finest roadside establishment in all of the land that’s based in Texas and coming to a lifeless, podunk town near you. Buc-ee's Big 12.

One of these teams will probably win the Big 12

Utah Utes

Coach: Kyle Wittingham enters his 25th season as the head coach at Utah, where he makes minimal noise before winning 10 games seemingly every season. He’s won 162 games at Utah since he took over in 2005, and we expect that number to increase pretty significantly this season.

Quarterback: Cam Rising is back for his 128th year for the Utes. He missed all of 2023 after suffering major knee injuries in the 2022 Rose Bowl game against Ohio State, so it’s certainly a question if he can return to form. Reports indicate he’s healthy though, and if so, watch out.

Schedule analysis: We’ll know if this Utah team is a playoff-caliber squad early - the Utes’ first two Big 12 games come at home against Oklahoma State and at Arizona. If they are able to get through those two games unscathed, there is a very real possibility that they don’t face another ranked team for the rest of the regular season. The toughest remaining game will come on the road against Iowa State in November, and while we’re high on the Cyclones, this is about as easy of a home stretch as you can get in the Big 12.

Glass Half Full: You can write the same positives about Utah just about every season - they are going to be old and experienced, they’re going to be very well-coached, they won’t make mistakes and they will have multiple players with NFL futures. On top of Rising, they’ll be returning multiple other key players from injury, including star Tight End Brant Kuithe who will be one of the best players in the new Big 12 if healthy, the addition of WR Dorian Singer (formerly of Arizona and USC) is massive for a team that finds success even without top-level wideouts. The defense is always stout in Salt Lake, and they won’t have to face guys like Caleb Williams, Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. anymore. Utah is about as boring of a playoff contender as it gets, but you can be damn sure they’re going to be good.

Glass Half Empty: What if Cam Rising is just not the same guy anymore? We thought he might even make it back for the 2023 opener against Florida, but his return was continually pushed back until the coaching staff made it official that he wouldn’t return at all in 2023 which is concerning, to say the least, when evaluating his future. The same questions are there about Kuithe, too. We saw last year how bad the offense can look if there isn’t consistent production from the QB spot, and if those guys aren’t ready to go by the end of September when they face the Pokes and travel to Arizona, we might be writing Utah off early again this year. The ability to be and stay healthy is massive for Utah this year, but that is already a question mark here in June.

Arizona Wildcats

Coach: Brent Brennan is in 1st year after a successful stint at San Jose State. He nearly won this job when it was last open before getting passed over in favor of Jedd Fisch who is now at Washington.

Quarterback: Redshirt sophomore Noah Fifita is going to be talked about as one of the best QBs in the country this year and a future NFL draft pick for good reason. His first career start came in Week 4 last year against Washington and they nearly won. A week later they went to the LA Coliseum and nearly upset Caleb Williams and USC with Fifta throwing for 5 TDs and outplaying Williams. In their next 7 games, Fifita and the Wildcats went 7-0 with five of those wins coming against ranked opponents. The biggest coup of the offseason was Arizona losing their coach and somehow retaining Fifita and his star WR Tetairoa McMillan. I don’t know which booster is giving them a house in Sedona but a cursory search of notable University of Arizona alumni leads me to believe it’s a combination of NY Jets owner Woody Johnson & LA Angels owner Arte Moreno. Both have experience in overpaying for star players while failing to adequately supplement the roster with depth. 

Schedule analysis: This schedule is about as easy as it is to get into the University of Arizona. They have a nonconference road game against conference foe Kansas State (previously scheduled before realignment) followed by a trip to Salt Lake City. Outside of that, their hardest game might be at BYU or West Virginia at home. No Kansas or Oklahoma State and the Kstate game doesn’t even count in the Big 12 standings.  The scheduling gods did the Wildcats a solid this year.

Glass Half Full: Colorado would like to have a word but this is the best QB/WR combo in the conference if not the nation. On defense they return their entire secondary and LB Jacob Manu who led the Pac 12 in tackles last year. A solid returning nucleus plus a cakewalk of a schedule and it’s easy to see why we’d be moderately surprised if the Wildcats aren’t in Dallas for the Big 12 Championship game.

Glass Half Empty: The good part about writing a newsletter is I get to cherry-pick certain information to craft my narrative and that’s exactly what I did in order to hype up the Wildcats. What I conveniently left out in the previous sections is what Arizona isn’t returning and it’s a lot. 4 new offensive linemen need to be brought up to speed along with an entirely new defensive line and running back room. Brent Brennan brought in former Syracuse head coach Dino Babers to run the offense which is wise in theory but he spent the last decade in Kentucky and upstate New York. New DC Duane Akina was on staff last year which helps but he’s an unproven commodity for a team that has to face high-flying offense in Colorado, Texas Tech, and UCF. Did we mention that the entire athletic department is switching conferences? There’s a lot riding on Fifita’s arm so Arizona better hope he can mask a lot of deficiencies in the early going so the rest of the team can get their sea legs under them. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Coach: Mike Gundy who has one of the most pristine mullets west of the Mississippi is inexplicably entering his 19th year in Stillwater despite his numerous attempts to leave for Tennessee or any other high-level job that’s become open in the past 10 years, multiple infamous and public scuffles with the media, and openly supporting One America News Network (read: kind of like InfoWars) in June of 2020 which not so coincidentally was a few weeks after George Floyd’s death and it led to his star players threatening to boycott. Oh, and in 2013 he was accused in a report by Sports Illustrated that he allowed rampant drug use, sham classes, escorts, and illegal payments to players. Not only was Gundy a star QB for the Pokes in the 90’s but does anything just listed out sound like the average resident of Oklahoma would have an issue with? He’s got eternal support from OSU fans and quite frankly he’s worth every penny of his $7.75 million/year contract. He has taken the Pokes to a bowl game every year except for his first. That 18-year bowl streak is 6th longest in the nation behind the usual suspects of Georgia, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Alabama, and Clemson. Whenever he goes out, he’s doing it on his own accord.

Quarterback: Oh my god it’s Alan Bowman again. Bowman committed to Texas Tech in 2017 and had three moderately successful years, went to Michigan and rode the bench for two years, and transferred to OSU last year where he started nearly every game. No idea how this guy still has eligibility left but we stopped asking those questions about him and many other QBs a while ago. Bowman started nearly every game because Gundy had a rotating cast of QBs as they scuttled to a 2-2 record to start the 2023 season which included two unconvincing wins against Arizona State and Central Arkansas followed by a 33-7 loss to South Alabama. Not surprisingly a young QB by the name Gunnar Gundy was one of those QBs and is back this year. Our guess is Alan Bowman will take 100% of the snaps this year barring injury but you never know with Gundy. 

Schedule analysis: We mentioned the close call to Central Arkansas and South Alabama loss last year but it’s not the first time the Pokes have been picked off by a G5 team or worse. The 2016 Central Michigan hail mary comes to mind but they have an infuriating tendency to play with their food. In 2021 they beat Missouri State and Tulsa by a combined 12 points and in 2022 they survived a 58-44 shootout with those same Chippewas. The AD must be a masochist because he decided it’d be a good idea to schedule the back-to-back FCS national champions South Dakota State who haven’t lost a game since 2021. The very next week Arkansas comes to town followed by a trip to Tulsa, Utah at home, and then at Kansas State all before October 1st. 

Glass Half Full: No matter what existential crisis, lack of a plan at QB, or inexcusable loss to a horrible team happens in September, the Pokes always recover and sometimes sneak themselves into the Big 12 championship. It happened last year and it wouldn’t be foolish to bet on it happening again. It also helps that they have Doak Walker Award winner RB Ollie Gordon III coming back after a record-setting 1,700+ yard and 21 TD year. Put him on your Heisman shortlist as he’s the best running back in the nation. Their entire offensive line is back, every important receiver, and of course their quarterback(s). 

Glass Half Empty: The Pokes defense was not as stout as it had been in years past and while Ollie Gordon III allows you to play keep away he couldn’t mask their sieve of a secondary during the 49-21 drubbing by Texas in the Big 12 Championship game last year. The Pokes return 8 starters and theoretically should be improved but with opposing QBs like Avery Johnson and Shedeur Sanders on the roster, we will believe it when we see it. If the defense takes a step forward we’re looking at a playoff team in Stillwater.

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Kansas State Wildcats

Coach: Chris Klieman is in his 6th year after winning four FCS titles at North Dakota State. This guy wins a lot of games and is otherwise incredibly boring. Now that I think about it, I can’t even picture him but am guessing he’s an unassuming white guy. (Google images confirmed my thesis)

Quarterback: True sophomore Avery Johnson is a former Elite 11 quarterback who decided to stay in his home state of Kansas despite several big programs recruiting him out of high school. Will Howard was the starter last year and led the Wildcats to a conference championship in 2022 but was chased off by the coaching staff and is now the starter at Ohio State. When your fanbase isn’t all that upset to see an incumbent QB of Howard’s caliber gone it means Johnson has a lot of promise - and now, a shit ton of pressure.

Schedule analysis: After a participation trophy game against UT Martin, K State has the following schedule: at Tulane, Arizona, at BYU, Oklahoma State, at Colorado, at West Virginia, Kansas. That is a certified gauntlet with some tricky road environments and three of the Big 12’s best coming to Manhattan. To cap off the regular season they go to Ames and face Iowa State in the edition of the Farmageddon rivalry.

Glass Half Full: Kansas State under Klieman and Howard was a known commodity. They’re going to win 8-9 games by running the ball down your throat and mauling you in the trenches. That isn’t expected to change this year with the return of RB DJ Giddens who had 1,200 yards and 10 TDs last year and the portal addition of RB Dylan Edwards from Colorado. Their 10th in the nation scoring defense from a year ago returns nearly everyone and they are deep and experienced enough to switch base formations based on the matchup. Avery Johnson unlocks a new dimension of this offense. Howard was an effective passer and ran the offense well but wouldn’t scare defenses with his arm. Johnson has the potential and if he shows it, the Wildcats could be a playoff team.

Glass Half Empty: Outside of the schedule, Kstate must break in three new starters on the offensive line and are largely unproven at wideout. They lost to Mizzou and Texas on the road by a field goal last year and their other two losses were by 10 points or less. Defense travels but Kansas State needs to prove their offense can get into shootouts and stay in them throughout the entire game.

Kansas Jayhawks

Coach: Lance Leiopold returns to Lawrence for his 4th season despite being one of the hottest names in coaching searches over the past two years. He’s taken Kansas from being the laughing stock of the Big 12 to two straight bowl games including a nine win season last year, and his offensive system is one of the most unique and effective in the country.

Quarterback: Jalon Daniels will make his return after missing almost all of 2023 with a back injury. He was one of the most electric players in the country when he was (mostly) healthy in 2022, throwing for over 2,000 yards and rushing for another 400 while being a nightmare for defenses to game plan against. Daniels staying on the field is paramount for Kansas this year, but if he can, this is going to be a dangerous team in 2024.

Schedule analysis: There is a very real possibility that Kansas starts 7-0 - an easy out-of-conference schedule leads into one of the easiest possible starts in the Big 12 against the likes of West Virginia, TCU, Arizona State, and Houston - before the Sunflower Showdown against rival Kansas State in late October. Another tough game comes a week later when the Jayhawks travel to Ames to play Iowa State, but this is the easiest Big 12 schedule of any team in the league.

Glass Half Full: Leipold is one of the best coaches in the sport, and getting Daniels back at QB is as big of a deal as any returning player in the country. The running back room is arguably the best in the nation led by Devin Neal (who is a name you will know this year if you don’t already), who will share time with Daniel Hinshaw Jr. who is electric as well. Leipold’s offense operates extremely efficiently and with this much returning talent and production, Kansas could be scoring at will this season. Even if the defense isn’t one of the league’s best, Kansas is going to be a nightmare for teams to play in 2024.

Glass Half Empty: Much like it is at Utah, QB health is as big of a question as it is of an importance to the Jayhawks this year. Daniels’ injury last year was to his back, which is always tricky to deal with, and the reports out of spring practice weren’t that things were 100% fine and back to normal - rather, this is still something the training staff is monitoring and nurturing to keep healthy. Kansas was bailed out last year with veteran Jason Bean there to perform at a high level when Daniels went down, but Bean is gone now. Daniels’ back injury still being of concern to the Kansas staff this offseason is troubling because the Jayhawks’ status as a Big 12 contender absolutely rides on his shoulders. The defense is far from great, so if Daniels does go down for any period of time, this team becomes very beatable very quickly.

Actually, we wouldn’t be shocked if one of these teams won the Big 12:

TCU Horned Frogs

Coach: Sonny Dykes has only been in Fort Worth for two years but followed up his 2022 national championship stomping at the hands of Georgia with a 5-7 record in 2023. 

Quarterback: Redshirt Sophomore Josh Hoover returns after starting the final 6 games of the season and he actually might not suck. He nearly beat Texas and threw for 4 TDs in a loss to Oklahoma but needs to get more consistent. Dykes must not be a big believer because he went into the transfer portal and grabbed Ken Seals from Vanderbilt and the two will be locked in a fall camp QB battle.

Schedule analysis: TCU took The Iron Skillet in Fort Worth last year but now must head to Dallas and face an improved SMU team. Trips to Salt Lake City and Lawrence won’t be easy and neither will visits from Oklahoma State and Arizona in November. 

Glass Half Full: Three of their losses last year were by a field goal and only had one non-competitive showing. Following up the magical 2022 season was always going to be impossible but they weren’t far off from an 8-4 or 9-3 season. 6-5 WR Savion Williams is the best wideout you’ve never heard of and RB Cam Cook should have a breakout sophomore campaign.

Glass Half Empty: The QB room is a mess and Hoover couldn’t even play this spring due to injury. The offensive line is made up of transfers and their new DC is old Boise head coach Andy Avalos who is implementing an entirely new scheme. Sidenote: I (Rand) googled “Sonny” and forgot to put Dykes which led me down a Sonny Bono Wikipedia rabbit hole where I found out Cher divorced him due to “involuntary servitude”. I tried to weave in an involuntary servitude joke when writing this TCU preview but couldn’t make it happen. Maybe making you read this explanation is involuntary servitude. 

UCF Knights

Coach: Gus Malzahn enters his 4th season at UCF after being enthusiastically ousted by Auburn so they could hire Brian Harsin (???). He led the Knights to back-to-back 9-win seasons in 2021 and 2022, but 2023 saw a dip down to 6-7 in UCF’s first year in the Big 12. 

Quarterback: KJ Jefferson comes in from Arkansas and this pairing with Malzahn is one of our most intriguing things to follow this season. Jefferson is far from the best thrower in college football, but he’s an absolute unit on the ground (just listen to Nick Saban), and considering that Gus took a former Georgia cornerback to a national title game as his quarterback, we can’t think of a better place for Jefferson to have ended up than in Orlando.

Schedule analysis: UCF will host Florida out of conference in October, and after beating the Gators in a 2021 bowl game, the Knights are hoping to use this game as proof that they are on the same level as the Big 3 in their state. The Big 12 slate is pretty tough with trips to Colorado, Arizona, and Utah, but UCF won’t be an easy out for anybody.

Glass Half Full: On top of the Malzahn offense + KJ Jefferson pairing, UCF rivals Kansas as having arguably the best backfield in the country, led by RJ Harvey. The offense has the potential to be absolutely electric with Jefferson and Harvey being as close to the definition of “Thunder & Lightning'' as you could possibly create in the game of football. Physicality - especially on the defensive line - was one of the drawbacks of UCF’s first season in the Big 12, but there is a lot of confidence that that will be much better this season. It can’t be understated how much of a nightmare this offense could be for teams to game plan against, and that could go a long way for the Knights this year.

Glass Half Empty: Even with some positive buzz surrounding the offensive and defensive lines this offseason, those spots are still big question marks for this UCF team headed into the season. The Knights are still trying to transition this roster from an American Conference-level unit to a big and physical Big 12 one. UCF seems to have no idea who their best 5 offensive linemen are with the Right Tackle spot being of concern, and the defense could not stop the run to save their lives last season. If the offensive and defensive lines aren’t considerably improved this year, this team goes from a Big 12 sleeper to a Cheez-It Bowl hopeful.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Coach: Neal Brown was everyone’s pick for which coach would get fired first and this very publication predicted he wouldn’t make it out of September. Turns out starting the season 4-1 and being overshadowed by legendary men’s basketball coach Bob Huggins being a drunk homophobe and resigning will save your job. 

Quarterback: Senior Garrett Greene is back after a solid first year as the full-time starter. His 53% completion rate is concerning but he doesn’t turn the ball over - 16 TDs to 4 INTs last year - and is a running threat who posted 772 rushing yards and 13 TDs. Greene is a sneaky pick for the best QB in the Big 12 this year.

Schedule analysis: We’ll know a lot about the 2024 Mountaineers by the end of September. Penn State comes to town in Week 1 as does Jalon Daniels and Kansas a few weeks later. The Backyard Brawl is always a blast but unfortunately, it takes place in the nondescript corporate cesspool known as Heinz Field. Check that, the stadium is now called Acrisure Stadium which is somehow worse than being named after Big Ketchup. Once October comes around you’ll know if you should pay attention to their games at Oklahoma State, vs Iowa State, vs Kansas State, and at Arizona. Woof.

Glass Half Full: West Virginia had the fourth-best rushing attack in the nation last year and their top two running backs return. Their entire WR room, tight end, and most of their offensive line are also back. Their defense lost some key players but did a great job in the transfer portal filling the depth chart with high-end talent.

Glass Half Empty: Their Big 12 schedule is one of the hardest in the conference and that doesn’t factor in the heated rivalry matchups against Penn State and Pitt. A soft November schedule should allow the Mountaineers to backdoor their way into a bowl game but given the fanbase was ready to launch Brown off the New River Gorge Bridge 8 months ago that might not sit well with the historically rational and calm fanbase.

Iowa State Cyclones

Coach: Matt Campbell has spent several offseasons as one of the hottest names in the coaching carousel, but has stuck around in Ames where he’s turned a historically awful program into a threat in the Big 12 since he arrived in 2016.

Quarterback: Redshirt Sophomore Rocco Becht turned out to be one of the most intriguing players in the Big 12 last season, and he remains very intriguing to us heading into 2024. He turned the ball over far too often last season (8 picks and multiple fumbles), but he can sling the football and he’s pretty mobile in the pocket. Iowa State thrived with just decent QB play from Brock Purdy for years, and Becht has the chance to be even better.

Schedule analysis: Things start pretty easy for the Cyclones in Big 12 play with games against Houston, Baylor, and West Virginia, but this team may already have a loss after their big rivalry game against Iowa on September 7th. November could be rough as the season concludes with games against Kansas, Utah, and Kansas State, but you have to bring your A-game to beat Campbell’s Iowa State teams no matter who you are.

Glass Half Full: For the first time in years, there is reason to be very high on Iowa State’s offense heading into the season. Becht has the potential to be one of the country’s best QBs, and getting to throw the ball to playmakers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel - who combined for nearly 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023 - will make his life pretty easy in the pocket. The offensive line returns all 5 starters which is absolutely massive for the Cyclones, and with a little improvement in the run-blocking department, the offense could be one of the Big 12’s better units which is not something we’re used to saying about Iowa State. The defense will always be good under Campbell, with the secondary being arguably the best in the league and an expectation of a pretty good pass rushing unit off the edge. This team will be a threat to anybody they play if the offense lives up to the hype.

Glass Half Empty: Simply put, there is not a ton of elite-level talent on this roster. Matt Campbell’s ability to develop underlooked kids is absolutely commendable and you can always count on his teams playing smart, physical football, but there just aren’t a ton of guys you can look at and say “that’s a future NFL player.” As great as it is to return all five of your offensive linemen, that unit could not run-block worth a damn last year, and if that continues in 2024 then this team won’t be more than a tough out for teams on their schedule.

Colorado Buffaloes

Coach: Shit wait, who is it? I can’t remember.

Quarterback: It’s the coach’s dad or something, right? Or like a famous rapper or something? The national media clearly needs to talk about Colorado more so I can actually give our readers a worthwhile preview. I do apologize.

Schedule analysis: For some masochistic reason beyond my brain’s comprehension, Colorado decided to open up their season against North Dakota State - who has 9 FCS national titles in the past 13 seasons - in their first game. What a horrible idea. They follow that up with a game on the road against what should be a much-improved Nebraska team. Yeesh. The Buffs also have to play some of the conference’s best teams in Kansas State, Arizona, Utah, Kansas, and Oklahoma State. Have fun!

Glass Half Full: The top-level talent on this team is better than that of any other team in this league. Shedeur Sanders (ahhh yes, I remember now… Bernie Sanders’ son) is currently projected as a first-round pick, as is WR/CB/freak of nature Travis Hunter, who missed much of last year’s 4-8 season due to injury. The Buffs signed 5-star offensive tackle Jordan Seaton to help shore up what was a really bad, often horrific offensive line last season, and CU seems to have alleviated some of their 2023 depth issues through the transfer portal this offseason. By that, I mean if a starting linebacker gets hurt they should no longer have to bring in a middle schooler to try to play Oregon. Speaking of which, three of CU’s losses last year came against teams that now play in the Big Ten which should certainly help the Buffs move closer to a bowl game, and you can’t expect the injury luck to be as bad as it was last year. If Hunter and Shedeur can stay healthy, they’ll be a problem for teams to deal with.

Glass Half Empty: Outside of Travis Hunter playing half of his snaps at cornerback, there is still not a single noteworthy player on this defense, and the offensive line remains a massive question mark even with the addition of Seaton. Outside of the few elite-level players that they do have, the rest of this roster is just simply not as good as several other teams in this league. Good enough to improve over last year? Sure. Enough to compete for a national title? Not unless you love throwing your hard-earned cash directly into a fire pit. I don’t think a Big 12 title is in the cards either, so I’m sure the national media will provide them the same attention they give all the other 6-6 teams around the country.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Coach: Joey McGuire - a Texas high school football legend - enters his 3rd season as Texas Tech’s head coach. He’s created tremendous buzz in Lubbock and has been recruiting his ass off throughout the state, and despite a couple of tough early-season losses in 2023, he’s had this team competing and winning games since he arrived.

Quarterback: Behren Morton returns after taking over at QB full-time a few games into the 2023 season, and there is confidence that he may be an emerging star for the Red Raiders. He had a strong finish to the 2023 season and has a good amount of talent surrounding him entering 2024. 

Schedule analysis: The out-of-conference schedule is easy and the first two games of Big 12 play are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, so we’re expecting Tech to get off to a good start. It’s a pretty favorable Big 12 schedule overall, as the only games against the conference’s best teams come at home against Arizona and Oklahoma State. Big 12 sleeper alert?

Glass Half Full: Along with the buzz surrounding Morton at QB, running back Tahj Brooks returns to lead the rushing attack after running for over 1,500 yards in 2023. Arguably the most interesting player in the country is in Lubbock this year, too. 5-star receiver Micah Hudson stuck out his commitment and will be catching passes for the Red Raiders this season, and he is insanely talented. The defense was solid last season and should be again, so the potential development of Morton, the return of Brooks, and the addition of Hudson make this one of the most interesting sleeper teams not only in the Big 12 but in the country this season. We can’t wait to watch this team play.

Glass Half Empty: As intrigued as we are about those pieces on offense, there is a good bit of pure faith being put into the improvement of the offense rather than true production. As good as Micah Hudson is at receiver, he is still a true freshman with a ton of pressure being put on his shoulders. Yes, the defense was solid last season, but it wasn’t exactly elite, so if the offense can’t take legitimate strides this year, the Red Raiders may fall short of their goals of being the Big 12 sleeper threat for the second straight season. A lot of hype, but not a ton of results just yet.

Hell, except for Arizona State, we wouldn’t even be surprised if one of these teams won the Big 12

Baylor Bears

Coach: Dave Aranda, who is entering his 5th season in Waco after winning the national title as the defensive coordinator of the legendary 2019 LSU team. He’s gone 12-2, 6-7, and 3-9 over the past three seasons, so his seat is as hot as anyone’s in the country entering 2024.

Quarterback: Dequan Finn transferred in from Toledo after a great three-year stretch where he threw for over 7,000 yards and 63 touchdowns while rushing for over 1,700 yards and 25 touchdowns. He was one of the most coveted QBs in the transfer portal this offseason.

Schedule analysis: There are harder schedules in the Big 12, but Baylor has found itself in the unfortunate (or fortunate?) position of having to play conference favorite Utah as a non-conference game in Week 3. The two schools had previously scheduled a series and rather than canceling, the schools decided to keep the game on the schedule and not count it toward Big 12 standings. Their first three conference games are on the road against Colorado, and then at home against BYU and Iowa State - about as easy of a start as you can have in this league. They’ll need to take advantage of that stretch to make any real noise this season.

Glass Half Full: After a 12-2 season in 2021, the Bears have fallen all the way down to going 3-9 last year, but there is belief in Waco that not all is lost for HC Dave Aranda and the current staff - hence him not being fired into the sun after 2023. Injuries absolutely plagued this team which already lacked depth last season, to the point where the Bears’ defense was asking 260-pound former edge rushers to play nose guard at times. There is a lot more confidence around the Baylor building that there is more talent stacked throughout the roster than they’ve had over the past couple of seasons, and Finn has the potential to be the most dynamic QB they’ve had in years. 

Glass Half Empty: There are still major question marks on both lines of scrimmage and even if Finn turns out to be one of the league’s best QBs, there doesn’t seem to be a truly dynamic skill position player on the roster. Even if the Bears are able to put up some points, the lack of difference-makers on defense has been prevalent for two full years now and there is no obvious answer to the lack of disrupters on the defensive line. If they can’t get any stops in this league, they are very cooked.

Houston Cougars

Coach: Willie Fritz’s first year at Houston comes after an 8-year stint at Tulane. Fritz led Tulane…TULANE to a 23-4 record over the past two years which included a 2022 Cotton Bowl victory over Caleb Williams and USC. Fritz got the juice and Tate dubbed him his favorite P4 hire of the offseason.

Quarterback: Donovan Smith transferred to Houston after 2 years of sporadic play at Texas Tech but after starting all 12 games last year he posted a respectable 22-13 TD to INT ratio and added another 6 TDs on the ground. 

Schedule analysis: Timing is everything and when the Houston AD scheduled a series with Oklahoma he couldn’t have picked a worse year to travel to Norman. Other than that they travel to Provo, Lawrence, and Tucson while hosting Utah, Kansas State, and Iowa State. Good luck Willie. 

Glass Half Full: Donovan Smith is an experienced, top-half QB in the league and can keep them in every game this year. Smith’s favorite redzone target WR Joseph Manjack IV comes back along with a left guard named Tank Jenkins. They’re good, experienced, and have great names. One of Houston’s top-rated recruits ever in WR Jonah Wilson will get a bunch of playing time along with transfer WR Mekhi Mews (Georgia). Willie Fritz relies heavily on the run game and the entire RB room returns which is an impressive feat given the transfer portal era with a year one coach. 

Glass Half Empty: Donovan Smith didn’t play this spring after recovering from a torn labrum which isn’t ideal. Neither is having to replace four offensive linemen and nine defensive starters in our humble opinion. If nothing else, this offense will be entertaining but they’ll need to put up 55 points to keep pace with what should be the worst defense in the league. Year 1 under the new coach will be tough but trust the process and earmark them as a contender for 2025. The Cubs and Houston are one and the same. Right, Rand? 

Cincinnati Bearcats

Coach: Scott Satterfield enters his second year in Cincy after a miserable 3-9 debut season which no one saw coming. Wait, no, everyone saw that coming. Not only was the roster torn to shreds after Luke Fickell finally was hired away by Wisconsin but the Satterfield to Cincy hire of the 2022 offseason was widely regarded as one of the worst in the country. Satterfield had immense success at App State before Louisville hired him but he could never get it rolling. It was a not-so-secret rumor that UL was going to fire him after the 2022 season so he got out in front of it by resigning. So what was UC administration thinking hiring damaged goods for $22 million when their competition for him was no one and they were entering the Big 12? Couldn’t tell ya but America loves a trainwreck. 

Quarterback: Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby who on name alone sounds like he sucks. Upon further inspection of his stats, he indeed sucks at football. 1,300 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 57% completion percentage in 6 starts last year. Yeesh

Schedule analysis: After a 2-0 start to the Satterfield era last year, Cincy got a visit from in-state foe Miami (OH) and lost in overtime 31-24 which began a 7 game losing streak. Welp, week 3 this year guess where Cincinnati is going? Oxford, OH. Satterfield better win that one along with a couple of matchups against the bottom of the Big 12 by Halloween because November is a meat grinder with West Virginia, Iowa State, and Kansas State. 

Glass Half Full: Cincy was 5th in the nation in rushing last year and returns RB Corey Kiner along with the entire offensive line. That’s a solid foundation to build out from but even with a potent rushing attack, they averaged a dismal 24 points per game last year. At least their kicker and their 6’7 punter are back?

Glass Half Empty: Cincy’s offense was one-dimensional last year and will be again this year, Their defense routinely gave up 40+ ppg and only return 4 starters - which might be a good thing now that I think about it - and Scott Satterfield has yet to prove he can build and sustain a program. His success at App State was largely due to the foundation left by Eli Drinkwitz and his best season at Louisville came after the 2-10 Bobby Petrino dumpster fire but never got back to that highwater mark. Call us in 2025 if Satterfield is gone, then we will take this program seriously.

BYU Cougars

Coach: Kalani Sitake boasts a commendable 61-41 record entering year nine at his alma mater. However, another non-bowling season after BYU’s 5-7 inaugural season in the Big 12 might have the LDS Church considering sending him on another mission. His first one was to Oakland, California so at least it can’t get much worse…right?

Quarterback: Mormons like options and they’ve got two in Gerry Bohanon and Jake Retzlaff. Bohanon led Baylor to the 2021 Sugar Bowl before transferring to USF in 2022 but hasn’t played since due to a shoulder injury. Retzlaff started the final four games for the Cougars in 2023 following an injury to Kedon Slovis and struggled with accuracy (50% completion), turnovers (3 interceptions & 3 fumbles), and throwing the ball downfield (162 passing yards/game). 

Schedule analysis: In a word: brutal. They play @ SMU and @ Wyoming in September and they can ask Texas Tech how their visit to Laramie went last year. Of the five teams listed in our contenders section above, four of them visit Provo. If that’s not enough, the Holy War resumes after a 2 year hiatus but BYU has to travel to Rice-Eccles where Sitaki holds a 1-4 career record against the Utes.

Glass Half Full: This team was Jekyll and Hyde last year with uncompetitive showings against Texas, Iowa State, and TCU but they nearly beat Oklahoma State and Oklahoma after going to Fayetteville and beating Arkansas. Injuries, particularly on defense, a lot of players were thrown into the fire but most of them are back. If they can find an average QB between Retzlaff and Bohanon, a bowl game is attainable and Sitake’s job should be safe for another year.

Glass Half Empty: Did you read the schedule analysis section? Yes, a majority of their tough games are in Provo, but their defense ranked 90th in the country or worse in passing, rushing, scoring, and total defense. Not to be outdone, their offense ranked 90th or worse in passing, rushing, scoring, and total offense last year.

Arizona State Sun Devils 

Coach: Kenny Dillingham is in his second year as HC after being hired away from Oregon where he was the offensive coordinator. He’s highly thought of as an offensive mind and as a young coach in general, but uhhh… he’s going to need to prove himself as a recruiter because this roster is… not good.

Quarterback: Sam Leavitt, who allegedly threw 23 passes for Michigan State last year. Alrighty then.

Schedule analysis: Boned. They just got absolutely boned by the Big 12. The league managed to put Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Arizona on the Sun Devils’ schedule. Good lord man.

Glass Half Full: “Cam Skattebo is still here holy shit” - this is the note Rand left me as we started our research on this roster, and to be very honest, he is just about the only positive thing I have to say about this team heading into this season. He is pretty fun though.

Glass Half Empty: This is the worst roster in the Big 12 by a pretty wide margin and the Sun Devils have to play all five of the top five teams in the league. 2025 has never looked so sweet.

Texts of the Week

In a group chat between Rand, Tate, and 4&F reader and Georgia alum (keep this in mind) Sam Weinbach, an animated, scholarly discourse broke out that resulted in ranking which fanbases in the Men’s College World Series we would most want to have a beer with? Here are the results:

Sam 

1. UNC - I’m a Tar Heel born, I’m a Tar Heel bred, and when I die I’m a Tar Heel dead*

2. Kentucky - annoying as can be during basketball season, but they have bourbon

3. NC State - I legitimately have no opinion

4. Virginia - Orange and elitist. My ex-girlfriend’s parents went there and I don’t think they liked me. 

5. FSU - I have a lot of good Florida State friends, but if I have to hear anymore about how many guys they were missing in a game they lost by SIXTY POINTS, I’ll start throwing up the U in their faces. The ice is getting thin.

6. Texas A&M - The only school in the world that’s a weider cult than Auburn

7. Tennessee - Hamas

8. Florida - Satan incarnate

Tate 

1. Kentucky - if I can swap the beer for bourbon, guessing that’s allowed

2. NC State - these are NPC’s, easy to navigate

3. Tennessee - I’d be the smartest guy in the room

4. Virginia - my mom studied there, questionably racist vibes

5. Texas A&M - definitely a cult but fun to make fun of over a beer

6. UNC - cool colors, good school, cool football program. All swag and vibes, no results.* 

7. FSU - 63-3

8. Florida - did 9/11

Rand 

1. Florida - love them some much I have a UF coaster in my car

2. Virginia - 7th grade girlfriend went there but I won the breakup Editor’s note: something about UVA & ex girlfriends

3. FSU - cool enough chant that the Braves stole it (Tate & Sam are massive Braves fans)

4. Kentucky - nothing impressive and can’t hurt me. Kinda like an airsoft gun

5. Tennessee - Rocky Top song & free dip from their fans

6. Texas A&M - will never get over the midnight yell video the night before the App State game

7. NC State - admirable athletics run but elated they just sold their souls for the next 40 years to pain & suffering. Hope 0 nattys was worth it. I’d rather not even be in the tournament!

8. UNC - my answer would be considered too extreme for the dark web

*The opinions shared by readers and SOME writers do not necessarily reflect the values of 4th & Forever

Have a great Thursday and we will talk to you next week.

Thank you for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.