Billy & Willie - Coaching Storylines to Watch in 2024

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We have a slightly delayed newsletter here today but for good reason - Rand is currently driving around Idaho for some reason while I (Tate) have spent the past week… getting engaged. Hooray! I proposed on Friday, Saturday was spent relaxing by the beach with my lovely new fiance, Sunday was spent with family, and I planned a surprise party with friends on Monday. So naturally, Tuesday and Wednesday were spent writing about college football. The things we do for love. We’re living our best lives this summer and more important than anything, we’re officially less than three months until kickoff, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Coaching Storylines to Watch in 2024

After I proposed to my now-fiance Diva this past weekend, there were tons of thoughts running through my head: When and where are we going to get married? How quickly do we need to start planning? What college football coaches are in the most interesting situations heading into the 2024 season? For some reason Diva was only interested in discussing the first two questions, so Rand and I thought it might be a good topic of discussion as we enter the final two months of the offseason. 

Let’s start off hot, literally. Which coach is on the hottest seat entering the 2024 season?

Tate: If someone gives me the opportunity to discuss how Florida could fail so badly that they have to fire their coach, I am going to take it. But even with my bias aside, I don’t think there’s a hotter seat in the country than the one UF head coach Billy Napier is sitting on. Heading into year 3, Napier is three games under .500 in his time at UF, going 6-7 in his first year which included one of the most embarrassing moments in CFB history in their bowl game, and followed that up by going 5-7 and entirely missing a bowl game in year 2. Napier is 0-2 against each of Florida’s top rivals (UGA, LSU, and FSU), and the Gators’ schedule is arguably the country in 2024 - Florida’s last 5 games are against Georgia in Jacksonville, at Texas, vs LSU, vs Ole Miss, and at FSU. Ooooooofffffff. I’d just hate to see Florida go 0-5 in that stretch and be the laughingstock of the SEC for a couple of months. That would really ruin my holiday season.

I will admit that I honestly thought hiring Napier was a great move at the time Florida hired him. He was remarkably successful at UL Lafayette for multiple years, he’d worked under Nick Saban and got Florida to commit financially to building out the types of support staffs we’ve seen at Alabama and Georgia, and on top of being known as a great recruiter, he seemed to have the demeanor and level-headedness that it takes to win in the SEC. While he has gotten some good top-end talent to come to Gainesville over the past couple of years, he just had his best running back transfer to Georgia, he’s had some embarrassing whiffs on the recruiting trail and he’s now named in a lawsuit related to the most infamous failed NIL deal to date. 7-5 might just save his job for one more year, but it’s hard to see seven wins on this schedule and the vibes could not be worse in Gainesville headed into the year. Napier is sitting on lava. Heartbreaking.

Rand: Napier is the answer so I’m going to cheat and give you two. Let’s start in Dr. Pepper’s Fansville and check in on Dave Aranda at Baylor. Aranda was the defensive coordinator during LSU’s 2019 national championship run before going to Baylor after Matt Rhule bolted for the Panthers. After a 2-7 COVID year which I won’t count, he responded with a 12-2 season, Big 12 Championship, and Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss in 2021. Since then he’s gone 6-7 and 3-9. We’ve mentioned ad nauseam that the Big 12 is a wide-open league without Texas & Oklahoma, but that can raise expectations in Waco when proof of concept has been shown with and without Aranda. Road trips to Salt Lake City, Boulder, Ames, and Morgantown will not be easy, nor will visits from Oklahoma State, Kansas, TCU, or Air Force. I’d put equal odds on the Bears going 8-0, 4-4, or 0-8 in those games so please remind future Rand not to give betting advice on Baylor games this year even though I won’t listen. 

Sam Pittman at Arkansas has a similar profile to Aranda and is under equal if not more pressure heading into 2024. The former Georgia OL coach was hired by the Woo Pigs in 2020 after Chad Morris ran the program into the ground worse than that drunk captain on the Exxon Valdez. After a 3-7 COVID year which doesn’t count, he went 9-4 and 7-6 which is impressive given Arkansas was in the SEC West with Bama, LSU, and Ole Miss. A slip to 4-8 last year with their only Power 5 victory coming in OT against Florida did little to inspire confidence in The Natural State. After firing OC Dan Enos midseason, Pittman turned to none other than Bobby Petrino to lead the offense. If you want the full history of why this move is alarming, shocking, and utterly hilarious you can catch up in this previous newsletter. Yes, Pittman might’ve just hired his midseason successor but there’s nothing the Arkansas faithful want more than this cigar-smoking, trash-talking, country bumpkin to succeed. However, their schedule is no joke. Outside of the three non-P4 games, their easiest games are probably at Auburn, at Mississippi State, or TAMU in JerryWorld? Woof. 

What coach is maybe not on the hot seat this season, but needs to perform to keep himself off of it moving forward?

Rand: Miami has been wandering the college football wilderness for the better part of my lifetime but I was assured that would all change, The U would be back, and Miami would finally be relevant in football once they brought home their Lord and Savior: Mario Manuel Cristobal. Cristobal of course is from Miami, played at Miami and won two national championships, went to the Saban Coaching Rehab Facility after flaming out at FIU, became the #1 ranked recruiter in the nation, and went to Oregon where he won two conference championships and compiled a 35-13 head coaching record. After the 2021 season, AD Dan Radakovich brought Jesus, er, Mario home to the tune of $80 million over 10 years. Quick side note on Radakovich: he was the AD at Clemson from 2012 to 2021 before going to Miami. Quickly think about what Clemson football looked like in 2012 when he started versus 2021 when he left and you can see why he was just as important of a hire as Cristobal. Everything was theoretically in place for Miami to return to their perch atop the conference (which they’ve still never won) and a mainstay in the national landscape.

Slight problem: Cristobal can’t coach for shit. We’ve mentioned time and time again that Cristobal is a great recruiter but there’s a theory permeating in college football circles that he simply can’t coach. He’s done nothing to disprove this conception and it’s only gotten worse, especially after the epic collapse against Georgia Tech last year. From our 2023 Week 6 recap, “Canes head coach Mario Cristobal committed coaching malpractice and should be tried at The Hague…This inexcusable blunder by Mario Cristobal certainly did not dispel the notion that he can’t coach and can only recruit. Additionally, he lost a game when he was at Oregon in almost the exact same manner.” Have no fear Canes fans because 2024 is the year with a cupcake schedule, top 5 recruiting class, and talent oozing out of your two-deep. Sound familiar? Probably considering you’ve finished in the top 20 recruiting rankings nationally each of the past 5 years and twice in the top 5. It’d be a waste of time to list off the reasons for optimism - of which there are plenty - because until Cristobal proves he can manage a 4th quarter we still need to leave open the possibility of sending him to the Netherlands.

Tate: Rand is right that the clear answer to this question is Mario, but Ryan Day is right there with him. Ohio State has had one of the three best rosters (at least) in college football for all of the past three seasons, but has famously lost to Michigan - and therefore lost the Big Ten - three straight times, entirely missing the playoffs twice in that stretch. Losing to Michigan is considered unacceptable - no, reprehensible - behavior in Columbus, and now the Buckeyes have arguably their most talented team of all time. It goes without saying that Day cannot afford another loss to Michigan, but even beyond that, OSU has gone so far all-in on this season via NIL and the transfer portal that anything less than a final four or championship loss to Georgia would have the Buckeye faithful in a tailspin. In my opinion, rightfully so.

In a 12-team playoff world, Day and OSU can probably afford something like a loss to Oregon in mid-October, or hell even a loss in the Big Ten title game (probably against Oregon) as long as they’re still firmly in the national title race - but it’s bordering on national-championship-or-bust for the Buckeyes this year. Ryan Day is 56-8 overall as Ohio State’s head coach, and yet his season-ending to basically anybody but Georgia would be enough of a failure to put him squarely on the hot seat entering 2025. We are extremely intrigued by this storyline entering the season.

Can we get some positive vibes going in here?! What was your favorite coaching hire in the Power 5 this offseason?

Tate: I really liked some of the hires we saw this offseason - Fran Brown at Syracuse, Mike Elko at Texas A&M, and Kalen DeBoer at Alabama just to name a few. But no hire fired me up quite like Houston’s hire of Willie Fritz. Fritz is truly an elite coach who has won everywhere he’s ever been, most recently taking a lowly Tulane program to a victory over Caleb Williams and USC in a Cotton Bowl. He’s proven not only that he can consistently win with lesser talent, but that he’s an incredible evaluator and developer of said talent as well. Houston is as fertile a recruiting ground as one could ask for in this sport, and the Cougars are no longer fighting the “yeah but you’re still just a G5 program” allegations now that they’re in the Big 12. I’m not here to claim that he’ll have Houston fighting for national championships anytime soon, but I would be absolutely shocked if this hire wasn’t a success, especially with how wide-open the Big 12 is now that Texas and Oklahoma are gone. A++ job here by the oil fellas in Houston.

Rand: Giving grades or predicting future success based on coaching hires is a fool's errand, just ask Jedd Fisch when he was hired at Arizona in 2021. Fisch was a relatively unknown commodity and never even played college football. He bounced around in the NFL and various colleges as an offensive coordinator or position coach but was on the 2019 Rams Super Bowl offensive staff. The year before he arrived in Tucson, he was the QB coach for the Patriots where Belichick handed him the keys to a QB room that might have well been filled with myself, Tate, and Joe Theismann but only after his kneecap exploded. Cam Newton, Brian Hoyer, and Jarrett Stidham are who Fisch had to work with and you can see why his hire wasn’t received with the standard pomp & circumstance. Somehow, Arizona’s football program was in worse shape than that QB room or the Prince William Sound circa spring 1989, and in Fisch’s first year they went 1-11. After a proof of life 5-7 2022, Fisch led the Wildcats to a 10-3 record with losses only to Washington, at Mississippi State in OT, and in 3OT to Caleb Williams. Again, no clue if Fisch will work in Seattle and he certainly has his work cut out for him after the entire Washington team transferred out or went to the NFL draft following the national championship appearance. However, with bajillion-yard & year-old QB Will Rogers coming in and a coach who got Arizona from 1-11 to 10-3 in 2 years, Husky fans should be a little less dejected their coach darted for Tuscaloosa. 

Keep it short and sweet: Who was your favorite G5 hire?

Rand: Easy, breezy, Covergirl - it’s Ken Niumatalolo at San Jose State. After being fired (perhaps unjustly and irrationally) by Navy, Chip Kelly hired him at UCLA to be the Director of Leadership which is about as real of a job as Matthew McConaughey being the Minister of Culture at Texas or a prison guard for Jeffery Epstein’s cell. Niumatalolo along with Troy Calhoun at Air Force and Jeff Monken at Army have been passed up cycle after cycle for non-service academy jobs because of animosity toward the triple option offense. Niumatalolo has a chance to change that narrative and give current and future service academy coaches the option (lol - yes it was intended) to rise in the coaching ranks. SJSU won’t run the triple option because believe it or not, coaches have the capacity to change, embrace new ideas, and adapt to their rosters and talent. I feel like Nick Saban did that a decade or so ago and might’ve had success in that venture. Good move by the Spartans replacing Brent Brennan who backfilled Fisch at Arizona. 

Tate: Easy peasy, it’s Jon Sumrall who Tulane hired away from Troy. Sumrall is only 41 but has quickly become one of the fastest-rising coaches in the industry, working as an assistant in the SEC (including at his alma mater Kentucky, which I believe will be an important fact within the next few years…) before being hired as Troy’s head coach where he won 12 games in both of his seasons. His teams have been disciplined and well-coached every time they step on the field, Tulane is currently rolling as a program thanks to the work of Willie Fritz, and I don’t see that train slowing down under Sumrall. It’s hard for a G5 program to hire a great coach right after losing one to a Power 5 team, but the Green Wave did it. Great hire.

Last one: What up-and-coming coordinator/assistant do you see as the next good first-time head coach in the coming years?

Tate: Don’t call me biased, the answer is Glenn Schumann, Georgia’s defensive coordinator. Schumann is only 33 years old, his entire coaching career has come as an assistant under Kirby Smart and Nick Saban at Alabama and Georgia, and he is thought of not only as an elite recruiter but as one of the smartest football minds in the entire sport. It seems that Schumann is taking the Kirby and Dan Lanning approach of waiting for a big-time offer rather than trying to make it as a G5/lower P5 head coach, which certainly worked for Kirby and Lanning before him - as well as the programs that hired them. But when he finally does land that big job, watch out. He’s going to be a force.

Rand: Here’s a blast from the past, how about Tashard Choice, the current RB coach at Texas? In the two years since he’s been at Texas, he’s coached top 10 pick Bijan Robinson and 2nd round pick Jonathan Brooks. Former blue chips CJ Baxter & Jaydon Blue showed flashes of their elite potential after Brooks went down with an ACL tear last November and are on draft big boards in every NFL office. Lincoln Riley might not know how many people are allowed on the field when USC plays defense, but he knows a thing or two about offense which is why he tried to bring Choice to LA in 2021 before he took the Texas job instead. Prior to his coaching career, he committed to Oklahoma out of high school but was supplanted in the depth chart by a true freshman named Adrian Peterson. After he transferred home to Georgia Tech, Choice led the ACC in rushing in 2006 and 2007. Don’t be surprised if he’s a head coach within the next three years.

Where in the World is Rand?

That’s a great question and it depends on when you’re reading this. Tuesday I flew into Bozeman, MT from Atlanta. Wednesday I drove about 9 hours from Bozeman to Missoula to Spokane, WA. The highlight of my day was seeing the University of Montana’s football stadium which is now on my bucket list. Thursday I am driving another 7 hours from Spokane, WA to Yakima, WA before ending in Seattle for the night. Once I’m back in Atlanta Friday night I might hang out with Tate and watch college baseball only to fly to New Jersey Monday morning for client meetings. Breaking news if you haven’t been to western Montana or the panhandle of Idaho before: there’s not shit out here.

Texts of the Week

“RIP Bill Walton, a legend. It is somewhat beautiful to know that he knows nothing but the sports world without the PAC 12.” - Robbie Eisenman 

“Is there anywhere that’s not McDonald’s, Waffle House, or Cookout that I can get a hamburger at 9am in Atlanta?” - Alec Nathan, 9:19am

“Well obviously not EVERYTHING runs through Lubbock.” - Bobby Hoane after being shown this graphic

Thank you for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.