Conference Championships Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. There’s a reason you won’t find college football coaches out buying presents for their families or taking Christmas card photos in a nearby grassy knoll. This is the busiest time of the college football season with the coaching carousel spinning like a Tagada, the tampering.. er.. transfer portal officially opening in 4 days, and early signing day 20 days out, all while half of them still have to prep for bowl games and conference championships. They’re paid millions of dollars to handle it so don’t feel too bad for them, we certainly don’t because it provides endless content for us, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Coaching Carousel

No matter how hard you fall or how shitty of a human you are, aside from politics, there is not another industry that is more willing and able to forget your past and forgive your sins if you prove to be effective at your job. We were reminded of this through two different coach hirings this past week and not coincidentally, both were in the SEC. Let’s start in Starkville.

Mississippi State hired Oklahoma OC Jeff Lebby as their next head coach after letting go of Zach Arnett. Arnett, who is only 37, is certain to land on his feet and get paid millions of dollars to be the DC at a high-level program like USC. Who is Jeff Lebby? Well if he were hired just because of his physique, or lack thereof, he is the perfect hire for northeast Mississippi. He started his coaching career at Oklahoma, then Baylor before moving on to Southeastern, UCF, Ole Miss, and coming back to Oklahoma. Hmmmmmm why would the running backs coach of Baylor need to move down to NAIA Southeastern for an OC role? Oh, right, because Lebby’s reputation was tarnished after being implicated in the horrific Baylor sexual abuse scandal of the mid-2010s. It’s unclear exactly how much Lebby knew about the sexual abuse, but it’s been reported one student told Lebby she was brutally assaulted by one of his players. That player was not disciplined and ended up playing the next two seasons. When Baylor fired head coach Art Briles, Lebby wore t-shirts and commonly posted #CAB on social media which stood for Coach Art Briles. This might be a good time to mention that Art Briles, one of the biggest pariahs in college football, is Lebby’s father-in-law. If you remember from way back in Week 2, Lebby was publicly chastised by the Oklahoma AD and head coach for bringing Briles onto the field after a win and posing for pictures. Lebby’s response to the incident was, “That’s my father-in-law…He’s my father-in-law. That’s the grandfather to my two kids.” Does it seem like someone who understands the magnitude of what he enabled at Baylor and has learned from his mistakes? Absolutely not, but Mississippi State decided holding its nose and covering its eyes from everything but the scoreboard will be worth it. At least the fans are armed with cowbells to drown out the inevitable moral platitudes. 

In what must be a race to the bottom between two bottom-feeder SEC schools, Arkansas saw the MSU hire and said, “Watch this.” On Wednesday, Arkansas announced the hiring of Bobby Petrino as their OC. Petrino comes from Texas A&M where he served as the OC for one season. Prior to that…well how much time do you all have? Let’s take a ride down memory lane, just know we’re not taking the motorcycle. Petrino is a revered offensive mind who has coached some of the best offenses in CFB history, including Lamar Jackson at Louisville. In the early 2000’s he led Louisville to double-digit wins, BCS bowl berths, and top-10 finishes as they dominated CUSA and the Big East. He signed a 10-year contract in 2006 which made him one of the highest paid coaches in the country. Six months later, he showed his appreciation and affirmed his loyalty by leaving for the Atlanta Falcons. He was supposed to come in and coach Michael Vick, but then the dog-fighting thing happened and you know the rest. One day after promising the Falcons he’d be back for another year, he resigned to be the head coach at Arkansas, a school that Falcons owner Arthur Blank explicitly forbade Petrino to interview with. Petrino is remembered in NFL circles for having one of the shortest coaching stints in league history and every player hating him after he informed the team of his departure/quitting by leaving a boilerplate note for all his players and dipping in the middle of the night. Following Petrino’s fourth year in Fayetteville, Petrino was riding his Harley through the Arkansas countryside before wrecking and seriously injuring himself. He refused roadside assistance and insisted he be driven to a local diner and not a hospital. Sounds fishy. Turns out, his mistress, Jessica Dorrell, was also on the motorcycle. Dorell had some BS job in the Arkansas football department and after some investigating it was reported Petrino had given her lavish gifts, promotions, and circumvented affirmative action hiring practices. Petrino was of course fired but as a parting gift, he granted us one of the most infamous pictures in college football history. Western Kentucky, Louisville, and Missouri State pulled the wool over their eyes and hired Petrino as head coach before his most recent stint at Texas A&M. Petrino is an undeniable scumbag, one of the biggest in college football history which is a really high bar to clear. There’s one more story from his second stint at Louisville that really shows you what kind of ‘man’ Petrino is. Matt Colburn was a 3-star running back in the class of 2015 hailing from Irmo, South Carolina. He was Petrino’s first commit in the recruiting cycle and remained committed all the way up to signing day. Mere hours before Colburn was set to sign, Petrino yanked his scholarship and offered him a grayshirt because the class was too full. Grayshirt is essentially a gap year where you can be on the team as a walk-on for a year before becoming a scholarship player. Louisville overrecruited their class and figured Colburn wasn’t worth a scholarship anymore. Colburn then committed to Wake Forest where he became one of the best running backs of the Clawson era. In 2018, in Louisville and in front of Petrino, Colburn rushed for 243 yards and 3 TDs. Welcome back Bob, can’t wait to see what you have in store for us this time. 

In more positive news, Syracuse officially announced its hiring of Georgia Defensive Backs Coach Fran Brown on Wednesday after firing Dino Babers earlier this month. Brown has been a fast riser in the coaching world over the last few years - he was Rutgers’ DB coach before Kirby hired him to come be a Dawg. He’s been an elite recruiter since arriving in Athens - 247 Sports named him the #1 recruiter in the country earlier this year, landing commitments from 5-stars like Ellis Robinson and Justin Williams for UGA’s 2024 class. While we are a bit skeptical that Brown’s recruiting prowess will translate seamlessly as he heads from arguably the most fertile recruiting ground in American territory to the Canadian border, we’re very confident that Brown has what it takes to run a program successfully. We’ll have to see if that program is Syracuse or not.

Lastly, our favorite hire of the cycle very well may end up being San Diego State’s hiring of Sean Lewis. Lewis spent five seasons at Kent State, where he was arguably the most successful coach in school history and thought of as one of the brightest offensive minds in the game. Lewis runs an extremely up-tempo offense that’s formulated with strong hints of the old-school air-raid system, made popular by the late Mike Leach, while mixing in a strong rushing attack when needed. Deion Sanders found this very appealing and hired Lewis to be his Offensive Coordinator at Colorado this past year, where things went… embarrassingly awry… as Prime demoted Lewis earlier this season, a move that shocked college football coaching circles as Colorado’s offense was the only thing that was even marginally functioning properly. 

Regardless of all the Colorado nonsense, San Diego State just landed a coach who, at only 37 years old, is one of the highest-thought-of minds in the sport right now. SDSU is one of the most resource-rich programs in the Group of Five, is in an attractive location for recruits, and has had tremendous success in recent history. We would be entirely shocked if this marriage didn’t work out.

Conference Championship Previews

CUSA: New Mexico State (10-3) @ #24 Liberty (12-0): Liberty -10.5, O/U 56.5 - Friday 7:00pm ET CBSSN

We know you’re not actually going to watch this game, well maybe for the first hour until the Oregon-Washington game starts, but we suggest you do because there’s a very real possibility Liberty sneaks into a NY6 game. The coveted spot goes to the highest-ranked G5 champion which means if Liberty wins and Tulane (the only other ranked G5 team) loses to SMU, Liberty will be in a primetime bowl. This shouldn’t come as a surprise since they are the most resourced school in CUSA and have the financial might to attract players and coaches. There’s a reason head coach Jamey Chadwell left the Sun Belt and Coastal Carolina for this inferior conference. The Flames are decent favorites over the Aggies, but watch out for Jerry Kill-coached teams. They punch above their weight and are led by QB Diego Pavia who is the inaugural winner of the 4th & Forever Heisman after peeing on New Mexico’s midfield logo and flipping off other UNM logos in the stadium. Congratulations Diego! 

Pac-12: #5 Oregon (11-1) v #3 Washington (12-0): Ore -9.5, O/U 65.5 - Friday 8:00pm ET ABC in Las Vegas

When these two teams last played in Week 7, Washington was a 3-point favorite. Now, on a neutral field, Oregon is favored by almost double digits. It goes to show how Vegas and the rest of the CFB world view these two teams. Oregon has pummeled every opponent since that loss in Seattle, winning every game by double digits. Washington, while still undefeated, has seemingly forgotten the concept of tackling, winning every game by 10 points or less. No matter how these two teams are trending or the expected outcome, the winning QB may very well end up winning the Heisman and leading his team to the playoff. Can’t ask for a better sendoff for the soon-to-be-dead 108-year-old Pac-12. Makes it even better (?) it’s between the two teams that single-handedly destroyed the conference they built earlier this summer. Salud.

Big 12: #18 Oklahoma State (9-3) v #7 Texas (11-1): Tex -15.0, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC in JerryWorld

Since losing to Oklahoma back in early October, Texas has won six games in a row, gotten healthier, and started to look like one of the best teams in the entire country once again. Although they’ll be without star running back Jonathan Brooks here, Texas certainly looked to have enough offensive firepower in their 57-7 route of Texas Tech last weekend. QB Quinn Ewers finally looks fully healthy, and receivers Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell are playing at an extremely high level alongside the best offensive line in the Big 12. This Oklahoma State defense has looked, uh, not good at times this year, and we expect Texas to have a good amount of success offensively in this one.

But Oklahoma State has Ollie Gordon II, the best running back in the country. Gordon has already run for 1,580 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, and despite all of the talent that Texas has, he’ll be the best player on the field in this one. Gordon facing one of the nation’s top defensive lines will be the most intriguing matchup of this game - a future NFL stud trying to run through a group of future NFL studs. But what will really determine how this game goes is which Oklahoma State team shows up. Will it be the team that lost to South Alabama 33-7, or lost to UCF 45-3? Or will it be the Pokes squad that battled and defeated Oklahoma, that beat Kansas and Kansas State? We expect Okie State to show up ready to play, but you really never know with this team.

In any other year, Texas would be one win away from a clear College Football Playoff appearance, but this is not any other year. Texas will need some help this Saturday, from a Florida State loss and/or an Alabama win to make it into the dance. Regardless, we’re starting to think it’s safe to say that Texas Is Ba… nah, nevermind, we’ll wait for them to win this one first before we say anything we’ll regret.

MAC: Miami (OH) (10-2) v Toledo (11-1): Tol -8.0, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN in Detroit

Defending MAC champion Toledo comes into this one riding an 11-game win streak, which is the sixth-longest active streak in the nation, and is without a doubt the most talented team in the conference. If it weren’t for a 2-point loss to Illinois in Week 1, a win here would’ve likely put Toledo in a New Year’s Six bowl game - and if it were next year, it’d be for the 12th spot in the College Football playoff. Miami (OH) brings in arguably the best defense in the conference, but the best players on the field - including MAC Player of the Year QB Dequan Finn and MAC Offensive Player of the Year RB Peny Boone - play for Toledo. We expect Toledo to win this one and continue to move toward establishing itself as the best program in the MAC after years of underperforming.

Mountain West: Boise State (7-5) v UNLV (9-3): Boise -2.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 3:00pm ET FOX in Las Vegas

These two programs could not be in much different places than they are right now, which makes this one of the more interesting championship matchups of the weekend. UNLV has not made a bowl game since 2013 (and before that, not since 2003), but after hiring former Missouri head coach Barry Odom last offseason, UNLV has been one of the biggest surprises in the country, winning nine games and earning a spot in the title game after being predicted to finish 9th in the conference in the preseason. Boise State, on the other hand, comes in as only the second team to ever enter a conference championship after firing its head coach - Andy Avalos - in the same season. This is a proud program that does not take mediocrity lightly, and while Avalos was not meeting Boise’s expectations, this is still arguably the best team in the conference. The Runnin’ Rebs high-flying offense is powered by MWC Freshman of the Year Jayden Maiava, who has led UNLV’s offense to being the second-most efficient passing offense in the country this season. Boise is led by QB Taylen Green and a very good rushing attack, and because both defenses are not particularly good, we think this might be a fun one to keep your eye on. For different reasons, this game could go a long way in determining the direction of both programs in what should be a wide-open Mountain West Conference moving forward. Expect cool uniforms and some points scored.

Sun Belt: App State (8-4) @ Troy (10-2): Troy -6.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPN

Troy clinched their spot and home-field advantage in the Sun Belt Championship game three weeks ago after beating 2-8 ULM. Then they knocked off 5-6 Louisiana and 3-9 Southern Miss. Golf clap for you Trojans. We hope you’re ready because you’ve got a red-hot Neers team rolling into town winners of five in a row, including a victory over James Madison. This isn’t to knock the Trojans, because they are still a really good team. Their defense is once again the creme de la creme of the Sun Belt and only gives up 16.7 ppg. Their only two losses were to Kansas State and James Madison back in September. They’ve more or less eviscerated every opponent since. But as we’ve mentioned before, will mention below, and mention again here, the Neers always play up to their opponents. This should be a great matchup that might be worth a second screen while you watch the main event…

SEC: #1 Georgia (12-0) v #8 Alabama (11-1): UGA -6.0, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET CBS in Atlanta

Well, here we are. After 29 straight victories and 2 national championships, Georgia now has to face the last team to beat them in the same place and game that it happened. Alabama comes into this one looking like an entirely different team than it did early in the season when it lost by two scores at home to Texas and then needed a late touchdown to put the game away against USF, and honestly, the same could be said about Georgia. After questionable performances but gutsy wins against South Carolina and Auburn in the first half of the year, the Dawgs have looked like clearly the best team in the country after their bye week, smoking Florida, Ole Miss, and Tennessee and beating a top-10 Missouri team by two scores. These teams seem to be peaking at exactly the right time and may be the two best teams in the country at the moment, and now they get to face off on the biggest stage.

For Georgia, there are a few things that, if accomplished, could allow the Dawgs to win this one comfortably. On the defensive side, this will need to be the most disciplined game Georgia has played defensively all year, in multiple facets. Bama QB Jalen Milroe is extremely good at two things. First, Milroe is statistically the best deep-ball thrower in the country, completing 55% (!!!) of his passes on throws that travel 20+ yards, with 15 touchdowns and 1 interception on those throws. Alabama may not have the most refined, sure-fire first-round receivers it has had in years past, but guys like Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond are extremely fast and athletic and have the capability to take the top off of secondaries. It is imperative that safeties Javon Bullard and Malaki Starks, two All-American caliber players, have patient eyes and remain disciplined in the play-action game. Taking away Alabama’s ability to connect on downfield shots is a massive part of slowing down the Tide’s offense. I expect the Georgia defense to be prepared to limit those types of plays more often than not.

The second thing that Milroe excels at, though, is improvising and making something out of nothing with his legs, and that is very difficult to prepare for. The Dawgs have struggled at times this year against quarterbacks who can run, but that has mostly been in situations where the designed QB run is a big part of the offense. While that’s not a big part of the Alabama offense, Georgia has also not seen a quarterback who is anywhere close to as athletic, powerful, and fast as Jalen Milroe. Hell, when Kirby was first asked about Milroe this week by a reporter who’s question compared Milroe to Tim Tebow, he started his answer by saying “No offense to Tim Tebow, but…” So yeah, he’s a f*cking threat on the ground. The absolute key to limiting what this Alabama offense can do is limiting Jalen Milroe’s ability to escape pressure and make plays happen on the ground. Much like it is for Georgia’s secondary, it is an absolute must that Georgia plays its most disciplined game of the year upfront. The Dawgs front seven has struggled at times keeping good gap control in the middle, and keeping a consistent contain on the edge. Struggling in those areas could be disastrous against Milroe. You have to, have to, HAVE TO force Milroe to make intermediate throws with consistency, which is where he struggles. Putting Milroe in 3rd & long situations and keeping him relatively contained in the pocket is how you shut this Alabama offense down - especially when you consider that Georgia is 2nd in the country in defensive success rate on 3rd down. It sounds like Bama’s starting RB Jace McClellan, who has the vast majority of Alabama’s carries at the RB position, will be out with an injury for this game, so that should help. But the Dawgs need to be as mentally ready as they have ever been to take on Milroe and this offense.

On the offensive side for Georgia, while it sounds like Ladd McConkey may not be able ready to go in this one, it obviously goes without saying that getting Brock Bowers back is absolutely massive. This offense is scary to face when Bowers is healthy, and all signs point to him being as close to 100% as he’s been since he returned from his ankle injury/surgery. This Georgia offense has turned into the most balanced attack in the country down the stretch of the season. Carson Beck has been phenomenal in the short and intermediate game all year, and downfield shots to guys like Dominic Lovett and Dillon Bell have started to become more consistent in recent games. Future first-rounder Amarius Mims is back at right tackle and the Dawgs o-line is protecting Beck better than any team in the country is protecting their QB right now. The running game has really shaped into form down the stretch of this season, and Kendall Milton is looking like a man possessed coming out of the backfield at the moment. This Alabama defense is very good, but UGA’s offense is absolutely rolling right now and can attack you in a plethora of ways. We’re going to put up points - if we don’t turn the ball over multiple times, I think we could turn this into a mini-shootout that Alabama can’t keep up with.

But at the end of the day, this is just Georgia and Alabama. It’s the two best teams in the country, the two best coaches in the country, and the two most talented rosters in the country, facing off on the biggest stage. We know the history, we know Kirby’s Dawgs are 1-4 against Nick Saban since Kirby got to Georgia. We know that the 2008 and 2015 games are two of the most embarrassing moments in Georgia history. We know that the 2012 SEC Championship and 2017 National Championship are unquestionably the two most heartbreaking moments in Georgia history. But we also know that the 2021 National Championship game was the most euphoric, exciting moment in the history of Dawgs football, and we know Kirby is 1-0 against Nick Saban in our last 1. It’s time to get the monkey off our back for good and make it unquestionable who the premiere program in the country is. Leave No Doubt. Go Dawgs.

American: SMU (10-2) @ #22 Tulane (11-1): Tulane -3.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ABC

At home last weekend, Tulane relied on its defense by forcing five turnovers and stifling UTSA’s high-octane offense led by QB Frank Harris Jr. This weekend, another high-scoring offense comes to NOLA except this time it’ll be without their star QB. In last week’s romping of Navy, SMU’s Preston Stone broke his leg and will be out for the remainder of the season. After Stone left the game, SMU sent in three different quarterbacks to throw passes. Maybe they are trying to throw off the Green Wave, or maybe they have no clue who to rely on to lead the offense. Whatever the case, this is a devastating injury for the Stangs who have a shot at a NY6 bowl with a win. Tough luck, but Vegas is trying to tell us something with a line that close even with the injury.

Big 10: #2 Michigan (12-0) v #16 Iowa (10-2): Mich -21.5, O/U 35.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX in Indianapolis

This is the Big Ten Championship game. Michigan is favored by more than three touchdowns. Vegas has Iowa’s first-half team total over/under set at 0.5 points. Yes, 0.5 points. Iowa’s game total O/U is set at 6.5. While we’d love to give you a breakdown of the Big Ten Championship matchup, which should be one of the biggest events of every college football season, we simply can’t get ourselves to tell you that this is going to be anything more than an absolute bludgeoning in the most boring form imaginable. It will be interesting to see how Michigan fares against a very good Iowa defense ahead of the playoffs, but at the end of the day, 14 points should win this game comfortably for Michigan. The real Big Ten Championship game took place last weekend in Ann Arbor, and we couldn’t be more thankful that the Big Ten West will finally cease to exist after this game, because in no world does Iowa deserve to play this Michigan team in a “championship” game of any kind.

ACC: #14 Louisville (10-2) @ #4 Florida State (12-0): FSU -2.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ABC in Charlotte

Win and you’re in. Or that’s the hope in Tallahassee right now. Without QB Jordan Travis, the Noles looked like a shell of themselves last weekend in The Swamp. Tate Rodemaker played about as well as you’d expect a backup QB to play as Florida State relied on four straight second-half three-and-outs by the Gators to escape with a victory. Louisville has the offensive firepower led by RB Jawhar Jordan and WR Jamari Thrash to go blow for blow with the Noles. Expect some trickeration from head coach Jeff Brohm who is leading a team with nothing to lose, while the Noles have everything to lose. We won’t get into all the scenarios that might knock FSU out of the playoff picture even if they win, but it would behoove them to win convincingly here and pray Bama doesn’t have another 2nd & 26 up its sleeve against the Dawgs.

Regular Season Win Totals Recap

Way back in our first-ever newsletter, we looked at Regular Season Win Totals and tried to make some predictions. Then, In our Week 8 Preview, we looked at how they were faring halfway through the season. Now that the regular season is officially over, let’s take a look at how our predictions netted out.

OnlyRans

L - Florida State (12-0) U 9.5: In the midseason check-in when the Noles were 6-0 I said, “This one aged worse than Matthew Perry.” In my defense this was BEFORE he died, but…well…yeesh. This pick still didn’t age well! Credit to FSU and head coach Mike Norvell for elevating this program and not collapsing under all the preseason hype. It’ll be interesting to see if they can replicate this success next year with almost every key player leaving, but they'll no doubt be a preseason top-10 team because of their helmet. 

L - Texas (11-1) U 9.5: Another team that I bet wouldn’t live up to their lofty preseason expectations for the 20th year in a row but got to give credit where credit is due. Unfortunately, even if they win this weekend, there’s a chance they’re passed over for a playoff spot because they couldn’t beat their archrival. Ohio State is warming a seat for you on the misery bus. 

L - Louisville (10-2) U 8: Turns out Jeff Brohm is a really good coach and can take a brand new team and their Charmin schedule and lead the Cards to the ACC Championship Game in year 1. The emergence of WR Jamari Thrash helped, along with RB Jawhar Jordan who masked a lot of deficiencies they had with QB Jack Plummer. Congrats on your Cheez-It Bowl bid.

W - Boston College (6-6) O 5.5: Head coach Jeff Hafley coached himself off the hot seat and bought himself another year in Chestnut Hill. Simply put, they won the games they were supposed to except for their Week 1 loss to Northern Illinois (Syracuse, Holy Cross, UConn, Army) and lost to better teams. It wasn’t pretty, but what about Boston College football is supposed to be pretty?

W - Florida (5-7) U 5.5: At our midseason check-in, Florida was sitting at 5-2 and only needed one more win for bowl eligibility and much more importantly push this bet to a loss. Well, Gators, I appreciate and applaud your futility. Losses to #1 Georgia, #19 LSU, and #5 FSU weren’t unexpected but damn, a 3-point loss to Arkansas at home? And the infamous 4th & 17 conversion by #9 Mizzou which set up a game-winning field goal? Your effort is commendable but Vegas doesn’t count moral victories. 

W - Michigan State (4-8) U 5.5: This pick was in even before former coach Mel Tucker was fired, but it was still an easy one. Seemingly their entire team either dipped for the transfer portal or the NFL and it showed on the field. After season-opening wins over Central Michigan and Richmond, Sparty lost six in a row, only one by less than a touchdown, and finished the season getting smoked by Penn State 42-0 in Ford Field because it is ‘too cold’ to play outside. New coach Jonathan Smith from Oregon State will improve this roster and on-field results, but he’s got his work cut out for him. 

L - UCLA (7-5) O 8.5: Would’ve been nice if every UCLA QB didn’t end up getting injured and/or outright sucking by the end of the season. Losing 17-7 to 3-9 Arizona State and then 33-7 to 6-6 Cal in the season finale is inexcusable. I’m pretty surprised the Bruin brass believe Chip Kelly can effectively lead this program and offense against Big 10 defenses. I would’ve started with a clean slate regardless of the potential portal defections (see: QB Dante Moore), but Oregon, Washington, and USC are all going to be looking for new QBs this offseason and these four schools will be compared exclusively against one another next year in Big 10.

L - Vanderbilt (2-10) O 3.5: Place stupid bets, win stupid prizes. Can’t believe I trusted a team that played their home games in an active construction site to win at least 4 games. Someone call OSHA next time I expect anything positive with this Vandy program.

L - TCU (5-7) O 7.5: TCU lost a ton from their playoff squad last year so regression was inevitable, falling off a cliff was not. A year after going 7-1 in one-score games, they regressed to a putrid 0-4. Their QB carousel of Josh Hoover and Chandler Morris who was the starter last year before an injury forced Max Duggan into action, did not work. A lot of pressure will be on Sonny Dykes to find some semblance of stability in the program last year which I’d probably be willing to bet on again. He didn’t forget how to coach overnight.

L - Wake Forest (4-8) O 6.5: Don’t have the energy or willpower to dissect this one so I’ll leave you with how I ended my midseason check-in: Take my money Vegas, but the bills will be soggy from wiping off my tears.

Overall: 3-7

Tate’s Great Picks

L - Vanderbilt (2-10) O 3.5: Dammit Vandy, why did you have to miss an easy game-winning field goal and lose to UNLV. That would’ve given the Dores their third win in September, and that loss felt like it completely tanked their entire season. I expected another step in the right direction from Clark Lea’s squad after last year’s team in his second season was so vastly improved from his first one in 2021, but here we are at 2-10. Oh well.

L - Northwestern (7-5) U 2.5: YEESH. Northwestern went 1-11 in 2022 and then had to fire long-time head coach and Northwestern legend Pat Fitzgerald just months before the season due to rampant hazing allegations that rocked the program. So naturally, they proceeded to go 7-5 while interim coach David Braun unanimously won Big Ten Coach of the Year and had his interim tag removed. This was obviously a horrible miss, but literally nobody saw this coming.

W - Ohio (9-3) O 6.5: Easy dub here, though it didn’t entirely take form in the manner I expected. QB Kurtis Roark was easily the best QB in the MAC in 2022, and while he was coming off of an ACL tear suffered late last year, I was expecting another stellar season from him. But injuries set him back a bit throughout the year, and it was up to the Bobcats defense to keep things together, and they were able to do that with ease. The Bobcats have been a wagon for two years now, Vegas needs to take a closer look at their win total projection next year.

W - Colorado State (5-7) O 4.5: This technically only barely hit, but considering the Rams had a 2OT loss to Colorado, a 2-point loss to UNLV, and a 3-point loss on a last-second field goal to Hawai’i, they were honestly unlucky to not win 6 or 7 games. I’m looking for this program to start making moves in the Mountain West sooner rather than later.

W - Louisville (10-2) O 8: Eaaaasy money. Louisville’s schedule avoided Clemson, North Carolina, and most of all FSU, and while I thought a push at exactly 8 wins might be a small possibility, I didn’t see any way this team was only winning 7 games. This one hit weeks ago.

W - Georgia (12-0) O 11.5: Never in doubt. C’mon man, the Dawgs haven’t lost a single football game in 2 years, we’ve won 29 in a row. I guess Vegas had to set the line somewhere. I’ll be betting the Dawgs O 11.5 in perpetuity, and you should too.

W - NC State (9-3) O 6.5: Another easy dub, though I’ll admit that when we did our midseason check-in, I thought we might be in trouble. NC State was 4-3 at the time and seemed to be struggling, with Clemson and UNC - who was undefeated at the time - still to play. Regardless, the Wolfpack ripped off 5 in a row from that point on to close the season, and I profited BIGLY. I hope you did too.

L - Illinois (5-7) O 6.5: This is the most upsetting loss to me, as the Illini came up two wins short of winning me some good money. Illinois had a 2-point loss to Northwestern, a 2-point loss to Iowa, and a 4-point loss to Wisconsin in a game that Illinois had a 2-touchdown lead in the 4th quarter. Quite frustrating, but that’s how it goes when you bet on Northerners. Smh.

Overall: 5-3 

Tate’s Great Picks (26-44-2)

#2 Michigan (12-0) v #16 Iowa (10-2): Mich -21.5, O/U 35.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX in Indianapolis

Pick - Michigan -21.5, U 35.5: I genuinely don’t think Iowa is going to score a point here. I don’t really know what else to say. Hammering both of these.

New Mexico State (10-3) @ #24 Liberty (12-0): Liberty -10.0, O/U 54.5 - Friday 7:00pm ET CBSSN

Pick - NMSU +10: The Aggies are coming off two big-time wins against Auburn (lmao) and Jacksonville State over the past two weeks. This is the greatest season in program history, both the offense and the defense are playing at a very high level, and 10 is a lot of points. Liberty is good, but I think this will be a close one.

App State (8-4) @ Troy (10-2): Troy -6.0, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Troy -6.0: App State has looked improved in recent weeks, but Troy is a wagon right now and is still the class of the conference. The Trojans are the better-coached team and will be fighting hard to defend their title. Troy by two touchdowns.

#5 Oregon (11-1) v #3 Washington (12-0): Ore -9.5, O/U 54.5 - Friday 8:00pm ET ABC in Las Vegas

Pick - Oregon -9.5: Oregon was literally 1-yard away from kneeling out a victory up in Seattle earlier this year when Washington was absolutely rolling offensively. Washington is no longer rolling offensively while Oregon is, this game is not in Seattle, and the defenses aren’t even comparable at this point. I think Oregon might make a statement here to send a message to the CFP committee.

American: SMU (10-2) @ #22 Tulane (11-1): Tulane -3.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ABC

Pick - Tulane -3.5: As mentioned, SMU QB Preston Stone will be out for this one which is just a damn shame because this one was going to be electric before he got hurt. Tulane was already the more complete team, and I’m now struggling to see a world where SMU hangs around for too long. Give me Tulane.

SEC: #1 Georgia (12-0) v #8 Alabama (11-1): UGA -6.0, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET CBS in Atlanta

Pick - UGA -6.0: Let’s make it 30 in a row. Dawgs 31, Tide 20. Lock it up, HBTFD.

OnlyRans (62-66-1)

App State (8-4) @ Troy (10-2): Troy -6.0, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - App State +6: I’m fading Tate because he seems to have forgotten App always shows up in big games. While App was clawing their way into clinching the much more competitive Sun Belt East including a win against previously undefeated James Madison, Troy has been sunbathing in la-la land beating down on the poverty programs of the Sun Belt East. No doubt Troy is good, especially on D, but App is coming in hot and tested. The Neers might not win, but they’ll ensure this game will come down to the wire. Have some Prilosec on hand for this one.

American: SMU (10-2) @ #22 Tulane (11-1): Tulane -3.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ABC

Pick - SMU +3.5 & Game Total over 46.5: SMU has scored 30+ points in every game since September 30th and has the ability to hang 50-60 points on opposing defenses. They’ve scored 31 passing to 28 rushing touchdowns and are averaging less than a turnover a game.  They’re no doubt explosive but Tulane has one of the best defenses in the nation in terms of scoring at 18.8 ppg. I don’t expect a 35-31 shootout, but I expect the over to hit with ease.

That’s what I had written before I checked Twitter and saw SMU’s starting QB Preston Stone won’t play after breaking his leg last weekend. I am officially switching my pick to Tulane -3.5, but I think the over will still hit because it’s more fun that way. I also wrote this before we wrote the AAC game preview above…if you can’t tell.

Big 12: #18 Oklahoma State (9-3) v #7 Texas (11-1): Tex -15.0, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC in JerryWorld

Pick - OK State +15 & Game Total Under 54.5: 15 points is too much for a Pokes team that’s playing in their Super Bowl, while Texas is hoping to get invited to the Big Dance even with a win. I’ve tried to manifest that Texas playing with fire in the second half of the season would come back to bite them and it hasn’t happened yet, but we’re good for one Texas-sized disappointment per season and this is the last chance. I like the under here because OK State is going to try and keep the ball out of Ewers's hands by running the ball with Heisman hopeful Ollie Gordon II. If it’s effective, I expect Texas to respond with their own rushing attack which will limit possessions and keep that clock moving. 

Big 10: #2 Michigan (12-0) v #16 Iowa (10-2): Mich -21.5, O/U 35.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX in Indianapolis

Pick - Michigan -21.5 & Game Total Over 35.5: Picking Iowa unders is responsible for roughly all of my betting wins this year which is exactly why I’m going against them this week. Five touchdowns is right on par with what Michigan’s offense is averaging on the year. They just hung 30 on the Buckeyes, and have scored at least 31 points in every game except one since September 30th. Iowa on the other hand has been suffocating the worst offenses in the Big 10 West which will surely get a banner hung at Kinnick Field, but that’s about it. The one decent team they faced this year was Penn State and they lost 31-0. Michigan’s last two Big 10 Championship Games have seen scoring margins of 42-3 against Iowa and 43-22 against Purdue. Michigan is too talented not to score at least a TD a quarter and maybe even Iowa scores late in the fourth against the Wolverine JV squad.

ACC: #14 Louisville (10-2) @ #4 Florida State (12-0): FSU -2.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ABC in Charlotte

Pick - Louisville +2.5: I don’t like this pick. Apologies to 4&F reader and Noles fan Bill for going against you here. In evenly matched games like this, I’ve gotta go with the more experienced QB and the gunslinging coach who’s likely to call some flea flickers or fumblerooski’s. Louisville’s Athletic Department does not deserve an ACC Championship, but much like Mississippi State and Arkansas did earlier this week, I’m holding my nose and covering my eyes here.

My moneyline parlay of the week won’t count toward my season total because I am picking favorites and not looking for cheap wins. But favorites are favorites for a reason and it’s been a consistent theme in college football this year. Take Toledo, Liberty, Michigan, and Boise State ML, and have a beer on me.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: I will be in Atlanta for the second consecutive weekend which I don’t think has happened since June or July. Streaks are made to be broken which is why I will be in Miami next weekend for work. However, I will be tailgating for the SEC Championship with my fellow Georgia friends before watching the rest of the games at a bar or my house. I’ve spent a lot of money on Wake football this year, but I think if you added up all the tickets I purchased, it wouldn’t equal the cost of attending the SEC Championship. Being a Wake fan sometimes has its perks.

TS: It’s Georgia vs Alabama in the SEC Championship. Where the hell do you think I’m going to be?

Hope you have a great weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.