Pretty Boys, Tough Boys, & Tired Boys - The ND & G5 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Rand is back in the Eastern time zone after gallivanting out west for like three weeks for his “job”, which I’m only 95% sure isn’t as a male stripper at bachelorette parties. That means we’re able to double up from the ~10,000-word Big Ten and SEC previews we’ve sent over the past couple of weeks, so get ready for a 20,000-word Group of Five preview below! Just kidding. We’ve got a short, sweet, hopefully informative, and funny edition for you today as we wrap up preview season and get closer and closer to kickoff, as we’re now officially less than one month away from actual college football games being played.

4th & Forever Merch

Our long, national nightmare is over. Now that Biden dropped out the only thing more stagnant than the polls between Trump and Biden is your dresser without a crispy new 4&F t-shirt. Call us a bigger tease than Trump in a hotel room with Stormy (heyo!) but we’ve actually had these for about a month now they’ve just been inaccessible to the masses after sitting in the back of Rand’s sister’s car.

If you, our dear, loyal reader, would like to purchase a shirt, please reach out via text or email. They’re $25 each and we can ship them to you too if you don’t have plans to see either one of us in the next few months. We have mediums through 2XL and the easiest way to pay us is Venmo. @Rand-Fisher and @Tate-Smillie

In the interest of transparency, these are priced so any ‘profit’ we make off of these is funneled right back into 4th & Forever. On the backend, we have ad plans and marketing initiatives with the obvious goal of growing our subscriber base and expanding our reach. Bored yet? Thought so, let’s get to football.

Group of 5 (and random Indiana Catholic school) Preview

As we’ve talked about many times here at 4th & Forever, there is no denying how much G5 football has taken a hit over the past few years. With some of the best G5 programs becoming P5 programs due to realignment, NIL widening the gap between the haves and the have-nots, and the transfer portal allowing the best G5 players to just immediately transfer to Texas rather than staying to become legends at their own schools, we no longer live in the world we grew up in. But the new 12-team playoff structure is immediately pumping life back into these conferences as an automatic qualifying spot will be reserved for the highest Group of Five conference champion each year. The conference champion qualification is an important note - that means that if Boise State goes 12-0 and is far and away the best G5 team in the country, they still have to win the MWC title game to even be eligible for the auto-bid. Regardless, one of these squads is likely going to end up with the honor of facing a pissed off Big Ten or SEC 5-seed in the first round of the inaugural 12-team playoff, so let’s get familiar with them.

Oh, we also wrote about Notre Dame since we haven’t covered them yet - a reminder that while Notre Dame is (obviously) eligible to make the playoff, they are not eligible for one of the top four seeds and a first-round bye because those spots are reserved for P5 conference champions. Join a damn conference you weirdos.

Notre Dame

Coach: Marcus Freeman is entering his 3rd year as the Notre Dame coach after Brian Kelly left South Bend for Baton Rouge and the jury is still out on which city would be less shitty to live in. Freeman’s two Notre Dame teams have ended in bowl wins and top 20 finishes in the AP poll but it’s been pretty nondescript otherwise. He’s won the games he’s supposed to (except losing to Marshall) and lost every game against higher-ranked teams, notably Ohio State twice. So nothing has changed at Notre Dame in the past 30 years? Check. 

Quarterback: Riley Leonard (formerly of Duke) is the latest pretty white boy ACC transfer QB after Sam Hartman led the Irish last year. Tate wrote about Leonard and the expectations around him this past spring. Leonard is currently recovering from ankle surgery and was not able to practice all spring so all eyes are on him once fall camp kicks off in a couple of weeks. 

Schedule Analysis: Notre Dame always has a tough, national schedule and this year is no different. Week 1 they open up in College Station against Mike Elko and the Aggies who used to be the Notre Dame DC way back in 2017. A few cupcakes precede a date with Louisville in South Bend at the end of September. For the stadium nerds out there, they play Army in Yankee Stadium, Navy at MetLife Stadium, and Georgia Tech in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Florida State comes to town in early November before they travel to LA and face USC over Thanksgiving. 

Glass Half Full and Empty: I don’t even need to open my preview magazine or wait for the AP preseason poll to know that Notre Dame will open the season as a top 20 team in the country. They’ll lose to FSU, one of Texas A&M, Louisville, or USC, and squeak by Army and Navy but drop a random game to Georgia Tech, Purdue, Virginia. All told they’ll be the most covered 9-3 team in the country and end up in the Camping World Bowl against Utah or something. Nothing about Notre Dame has changed since 1988 and there’s no reason to think this year will be any different. They’ll have a tough running game led by Jerimayah Love, their best receiver threat will be a tight end - Mitchell Evans - and their defense will be stout. CTRL + C for the 2025 Notre Dame preview - just need to switch out a few names. 

Nine Other Teams You Should Be Aware Of:

Boise State (MWC) +400*: The Broncos enter 2024 as 4th & Forever’s favorite to make the playoff in the first year that a spot is reserved for a G5 team. Boise fired head coach Andy Avalos after ten games last year, yet still went on to win the Mountain West title game by 24 points led by interim coach Spencer Danielson. Danielson had that interim tag removed and is now the full-time head man over arguably the most talented Boise roster we’ve seen in several years. Former 5-star QB Malachi Nelson pretty randomly transferred from USC after his freshman year last year, and with a year of development under Lincoln Riley there are some extremely high expectations floating around in Idaho, especially considering Boise’s receiver room, which includes speedsters Prince Strachan and Austin Bolt who can stretch the field deep, as well as another former 5-star Chris Marshall who could be the most talented wideout in the league if he keeps his head on straight. The offensive line returns four starters, including left tackle Kage Casey who was a Freshman All-American last season, to block for the best player on the team and potential Heisman finalist, Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is an absolute stud and is, in our opinion, the best running back in college football - if you aren’t familiar with him yet, you will be very soon.

The defense is loaded with experienced talent, including EDGE Ahmad Hassenein who had 12.5 sacks in 2023, both starting inside linebackers and three starters in the secondary off of what was already a good defense last year. Hell, even their punter was 2nd in the nation in average yards per punt last season and is a potential first-team All-American this year. This is the best G5 team on paper heading into 2025, and a huge Week 2 game in Eugene against the Ducks will have this squad prepared to take on the rest of their schedule even with a loss to Oregon. Games on the road against UNLV and Wyoming will undoubtedly be tough, but there isn’t another team in the Mountain West that can match up with Boise from a talent perspective. The Broncos of our childhoods may be back.

*  - Odds of making the CFP as the highest-ranked G5 conference champion according to DraftKings

Liberty (CUSA) +400: The second subheader of Liberty’s Wikipedia page is ‘Controversies’ and methinks that’s not a good thing! Well, it is if you write a college football newsletter and will make fun of just about anyone except the Pope. Actually, who cares, I’m not Catholic and that old geezer definitely smells like a musty closet. Too harsh? Perhaps, but I don’t hold people who cover up the sexual abuse of minors in high regard. Speaking of covering up sexual abuse: Liberty University! Their athletic department is run by none other than Ian McCaw who was the AD during the Art Briles/Baylor football sexual abuse and mismanagement scandal. A cursory Wikipedia scroll shows buzzwords like blackface, LGBTQ discrimination, adultery, alcoholism, and abstinence. Maybe next year during the dog days of summer we’ll do a deep dive into the LU scandals but I implore anyone who isn’t familiar with why the former president resigned to google ‘Jerry Falwell Pool Boy’ and thank me later. On the gridiron, they’re going to be damn good…again. Jamey Chadwell enters his second year after making Coastal Carolina a household college football name. Chadwell’s high-powered, fast-as-hell offense, plays well in the CUSA which isn’t known for much defense, or much of anything. QB Kaidon Salter and RB Quiton Cooley are back and form one of the best tandems in college football. Anything other than a CUSA championship will be a disappointment and even though Oregon took them behind the shed like Lenny in the Fiesta Bowl last year, they have a chance to make the playoff this year and every year if the other G5 conferences cannibalize themselves. 

Memphis (AAC) +700: If you’re doing online dynasties in the new CFB video game or want a spunky G5 team to root for, Memphis is your team. They’re going to put up a bajillion points and have three games this year not on Saturday so when you’re bored on a Friday night in November wondering if watching the Rice-Memphis game is worth it, the answer is yes. QB Seth Henigan is a dual threat who will throw it 100+ times to WRs Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee (great names) while South Carolina transfer RB Mario Anderson will compete with incumbent Sutton Smith for the top RB role. Their defense won’t matter because like 2007 Hawai’i with Colt Brennan or 2011 Houston with Case Keenum they’ll score 50+ points a game and you can only pray to stop them once. An early season trip to Tallahassee might not be fun but Memphis is the AAC favorite for a reason and has something to prove after being passed up for the past few years by the Big 12 and ACC in conference realignment. 

Tulane (AAC) +1000: Coming off of arguably the best two-year stretch in program history, Tulane finds itself in a coaching transition after losing the legendary Willie Fritz to Houston this offseason. Thankfully, they managed to hire arguably the best up-and-coming young head coach in the country, hiring Jon Sumrall from Troy. Sumrall formerly coached at Tulane as an assistant so he’s already familiar with the school’s culture and recruiting ground, and at only 42 years old was the head man at Troy for only two seasons where he won back-to-back Sun Belt titles. Good stuff! The Green Wave will also have to replace four-year starting QB and AAC Player of the Year Michael Pratt which is tough, but they’ll get to do so with former 5-star Ty Thompson who transferred in from Oregon. Running Back Makhi Hughes is back after running for nearly 1,400 yards and winning AAC Rookie of the Year, and he’ll be running behind a likely excellent offensive line that returns some very good players. Receiver is a little bit of a question mark, but that’s been the case for both of the last two very successful years, and Thompson’s ability as a runner adds a wrinkle to the offense that makes the receiving question marks less of an issue for now.

The defense has been very solid over the past two seasons (#1 in the AAC in scoring defense in 2023), and returns some key talent, especially in the front seven with ILB Tyler Grubbs (third team all AAC in 2023) and DT Patrick Jenkins (8.5 sacks, 20.5 TFL’s) coming back to stop the run yet again after the Green Wave also led the conference in rushing defense last year. Sumrall is an elite defensive mind as a coach, too, and his pairing with this unit makes us believe Tulane will have a very stingy defense once again. The Green Wave host Kansas State and travel to Oklahoma in weeks 2 and 3, and while those games will obviously be very tough, they’re also opportunities for massive resume boosts that could eventually put them over the top of other G5 teams contending for that one playoff spot. This is going to be a really good, really entertaining team in 2024 and we wouldn’t be shocked at all if they ended up giving the 5-seed a run for their money in late December.

App State (Sun Belt) +1000: I don’t know how many times we have to say this but the message is clearly not getting through to college ADs: stop scheduling App State. UFC fighters and boxers are notorious for gloating about how they’ll show up for a fight at any time, any place, under any rules. App State is that team in CFB and they’ll play anyone. They might not win every time but dammit they’ll make the game the least enjoyable 60 minutes of your year. Just ask Michigan, Wake Forest, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Penn State, and of course, UNC who Mack Brown publicly said they will not play again. This year’s sucker is Dabo and Clemson but they also pull OOC games at ECU and home against Liberty which both are destined to be barnburners. QB Joey Aguilar started last year buried in the depth chart after transferring from JUCO Diablo Valley but injuries vaulted him into the starting role. Of course, because every App State QB not named Chase Rice (the Clemson dude who had to replace Trevor Lawrence for that game against Syracuse) ends up being good. Aguilar will be one of the best players in the Sun Belt this year and there is little question their running backs will be solid for the 200th year in a row even with Nate Noel at Missouri. App State just churns out dudes and if they can avoid slip-ups to Georgia Southern and/or Coastal Carolina as they’ve been prone to do, they could shake their label as being the winningest FBS team in the playoff era without a playoff appearance. 

UTSA (AAC) +1200: Meep Meep! The Roadrunners didn’t skip a beat after moving up to the AAC from Conference USA last season, going 10-2 in the regular season and winning the whole damn conference. They’re in a tough spot here in 2024, though, with longtime QB Frank Harris out of eligibility and no firm answer to replace him under center. Head Coach Jeff Traylor is as good of a coach as there is in the country though, and he’s amassed some serious skill talent at running back and receiver over the past few recruiting cycles that will likely keep the Roadrunners’ offense scoring some points. The defense should keep them in games as well, with All-AAC front seven players LB Donyai Taylor and DL’s Brandon Brown and Joe Evans returning to slow opponents’ run game down once again. Out-of-conference games against Texas State and Texas are… not ideal, and while we think UTSA’s success over recent years is driving their CFP odds a little too high at this point, we’re also not in the business of betting against Jeff Traylor. This will be a tough out for every team on their schedule.

Texas State (Sun Belt) +1200: Head coach GJ Kinne enters his second year with the Bobcats, and things could not be going much more swimmingly. Texas State was a lowly, irrelevant, stepped-on program virtually every year since they moved up from the FBS until Kinne and his air assault offense arrived last season, winning 8 games for the Bobcats’ first time since they moved up. James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud comes in after throwing for 3,600 yards and 35 TD’s last year, and he’ll have weapons to throw to as well. We’re expecting 4,000+ yards and 40 TD’s in Kinne’s offense. Stud running back Ismail Mahdi (Lisan al-Gaib!) returns after running for over 1,300 yards last year as well. The defense was not very good in 2023 but does return it’s two best players at safety and linebacker, and frankly, even if the defense isn’t good, this team can likely out-score just about anybody they play in their conference. If the offense keeps clicking, this is going to be an extremely fun team to watch and will be a legitimate playoff contender.

Fresno State (MWC) +1500: Bulldogs head coach Jeff Tedford has won everywhere he went which included multiple stops at Fresno State, a decade-long career at Cal, and stints in the NFL and CFL. Tedford was the coach at Cal when they were rolling with Aaron Rogers before he became a crackhead, Marshawn Lynch, and DeShaun Jackson but unfortunately, he stepped down earlier this month due to health reasons. It’s hard to gauge how interim head coach Tim Skipper will fare but Tedford left him a healthy program and roster. Figuring out Fresno State isn’t that hard: when QB Mikey Keene plays well, the Bulldogs win…a lot. Keene is the biggest X-Factor in the MWC this season and if he finds consistency with his new receivers on a weekly basis, we could be looking at the Bulldogs in the CFB. Sidenote: what are the criteria to be an X-Factor? I think it’s an overused trope by ESPN and other publications to get clicks. Oh, the biggest X-Factor for the Chicago Bears this year is Caleb Williams? No shit. 

South Florida (AAC) +1600: Go Bulls! Is it true that I added a ninth team to this list because I grew up a USF fan (behind the Dawgs of course) due to family ties? Yes. But is it also true the USF has the ninth best odds out of G5 teams to make the playoff and seems like they’re going to be damn good in 2024? Yes again! The Bulls bring back head coach Alex Golesh for his second season after hiring him away from Tennessee, where he was the offensive coordinator for the Vols during their incredible run that season. QB Byrum Brown somehow didn’t transfer to a powerhouse school this offseason, and folks, he is a beast. He threw for over 3,200 yards and 26 TD’s last year while rushing for another 800 and 11 TD’s - he and Heisman winner Jayden Daniels were the only two people with 3,000/800 last season. He’s absolutely dynamic and has some really good skill talent paired with him, with running back Nay’Quan Wright returning, as well as WR Sean Atkins returning who had over 1,000 yards receiving last year. A little bit of Year 2 improvements on the offensive line and some upgraded talent on defense via the portal has the Bulls positioned as a very dangerous team in the AAC with a real shot at winning the conference to make the playoff. Traveling to T-Town to play Alabama is certainly not ideal, but this is just a gentle reminder that it took a last minute touchdown to ice the game against USF last year. Even with a loss there, USF hosts Miami a couple of weeks later in what will be a massively intriguing game not only for folks in the state of Florida, but as an upset spot that could catapult the Bulls’ resume into the top of the G5 in the race for the coveted playoff spot.

Where in the Sweet Hell has Rand Been?

Everywhere anywhere all at once or whatever that dumb show is on HBO (Tate: that is a movie lol. Also, it’s one of the best movies ever). Alright, enough from the peanut gallery. In the past two weeks, I have visited one-fifth of the states in this country, and not all visits were intentional. By the time this edition comes out, I’ll likely be on hole #7 on a golf course outside of Ocean Isle Beach, NC and I’ll be damned if I don’t deserve it. On July 9th (two days before the Big 10 preview was published) I flew from Atlanta to Albuquerque, NM. I sat in Albuquerque for a few days before driving a MINI Cooper and staying in the following cities for one night each. Albuquerque to Durango, CO then to Grand Junction, CO, to Salt Lake City, through Yellowstone, to Bozeman, MT, to Missoula MT, to Spokane, WA, to Yakima, WA, and ending in Seattle. My work ventures included but were not limited to the following:

• Being a mascot handler for the University of Montana’s Monte the Bear and protecting him from old ladies who kept grabbing his ass

• Telling a yoga instructor she could not promote her nonprofit, Teens in Training School, aka TITS to our consumers while onstage

• Hanging out with four 600+ lb pigs at a ranch in Bozeman. The heaviest future piece of bacon was aptly named Schnitzel (pic below)

  • I may have tried to convince the ranch owners to name two of their other pigs Kirby and Raiola

• There’s not enough time or space to explain other ridiculous stories such as why a motorcycle cop threatened to throw me in jail, why I bought a children’s bouncy house from a Walmart in Espanola, New Mexico, or why I became the impromptu conductor of the Seattle Seahawks marching band

Tate did an admirable job covering the two most important conferences in college football in my absence and apparently some crazy shit went down in the US while I was without service for hours at a time on a daily basis. For example, work gave me a satellite phone for “emergencies only” which of course meant I had to find out who in my contacts would answer a call from a number that looked like it was from Saudi Arabia. After 20+ calls to my mom and dad who did not answer (noted for future emergencies), I called my coworker. She said, “Hey while you’re gallivanting around the West Coast do you know what’s going on right now?” As you can probably guess I did not know what was going on in the world because shockingly there isn’t service 2 hours south of Pagosa Springs, CO. So that’s how I found out Trump got shot.

Everything came to a head on Monday when I was slated to take a redeye from Seattle to Atlanta before ending in Myrtle Beach and get to Ocean Isle on Tuesday morning. I showed up at SeaTac at 3:00pm on Monday for an 11:35pm flight. Silly, naive me had no idea what this CrowdStrike thing was and how it was wreaking havoc on planes across the country. All I knew was I couldn’t stay in my hotel (sold out) and I had nowhere to go except the terminal for my flight. I was at the check-in desk for baggage and they told me my flight was canceled and Delta rebooked me for Wednesday night. I immediately got in a customer service line with a bunch of Karens and overworked Delta employees who made it quite obvious their hands were tied. Sitting on the floor of SeaTac while on hold with my company travel reps I booked an American flight to Wilmington but it was out of Portland. Personal note: I haven’t flown anything but Delta in 5+ years so I was livid I had to book an American flight and get no miles. I’m Platinum Medallion so next time you see me please be aware you’re in the presence of royalty.

Anyways, at 4pm on Monday I was standing in the Seattle airport with a flight out of Portland and no way to get there. After booking a rental Kia Sorento through some sketchy company called Thrifty I drove 3 hours to Oregon. My flight was scheduled to take off at midnight on Monday. A two-hour delay meant I spent 6 hours in the Portland airport on Monday night. Knowing I physically could not stay awake before the flight I leaned against a wall with my AirPods in, set an alarm for the boarding time, and still slept through it (standing up) and only made my flight because a good samaritan woke me up telling me to get on the plane. Did I mention the night before this we had an open bar staff party? My redye flight to Portland took me to Dallas where I boarded a flight to Charlotte. My Charlotte flight to Wilmington was supposed to take off at 1:15pm and I didn’t board until 6:00pm because of mechanical and weather delays. I was so tired on my flight to Wilmington that I was the second to last person off the plane, didn’t even wake up when we landed, and would’ve been the last person off if the lady next to me didn’t have to wait for the entire plane to deboard so she could get her wheelchair. 

So, please, Debbie from finance, pardon the delay in my response but I’ll get to my expense report eventually and no, Mom I don’t know when I’m getting my haircut. 

Texts of the Week - EA Sports College Football 25 Edition

“First passing play I threw a pick six hell yeah” - Alex Sztejnberg

“I’m seeing ghosts” - Bobby Hoane

“I’m getting the breaks beat off of me by Georgia Southern” - Jake Berg

“It’s 1 am. Carson Beck has thrown 5 picks to Clemson in the first half. I think it’s time to go to bed.” - Eli Shankman

“Just came back from two touchdowns down in the last quarter to beat Florida and as I was kneeling down the power went out. Probably a sign I should be working.” - Waide Swain, 3:25pm on a Tuesday

“Why am I getting in more trouble for not going to class than I did in actual college?” - Adam David

“This is what I’m sending to recruits when I’m running low on recruiting hours and can only afford to ‘send them a DM’ ” - Alex Sztejnberg (picture below)

Have a great Thursday and we will talk to you next week.

Thank you for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.