Pt 1: Who The Hell is Their Quarterback Again?

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. The dust has mostly settled in the 4&F bracket pool and in quarterback rooms around the country so we take a moment to analyze where each department stands. Additionally, Tate explains why he didn’t need to go to journalism school while Rand tells you which third-string spring quarterback battle YOU should be paying attention to, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

4&F March Madness Bracket Pool

The 4th & Forever bracket pool is down to the final two brackets. Kaitlyn Darcy is sitting in first and will win it all as long as Purdue doesn’t win the natty. If Purdue wins it all, then Brian Hagan will get the $600. Best of luck to both of you but just remember if you don’t win, at least you get your $10 back! Of note, Rand is sitting venerably in 6th place while Tate is in 20th. Make your individual character and intelligence assessments accordingly. 

The Coaching, er, Quarterback Carousel

It’s been a whirlwind of an offseason on and off the field since January and now that spring football is underway at just about every program in the country, let’s take stock of where a handful of programs stand at the most important position in sports: quarterback. It was damn near impossible to keep track of all the QB movements during the first portal window last winter. Therefore, we’re going to analyze the programs that look to be set for the fall, which programs seem to have no earthly idea who will be starting behind center for them in 6 months, which programs need someone, anyone (!!) to stand out, and which QBs we are fanboying over. We might have to do this whole exercise again in a few short weeks as the spring transfer portal window is open from April 15-30 which is yet another reminder that college football is f*****g bonkers. 

Which program brought in a transfer QB you think is going to be a success?

Tate: Rand and I probably both agree that Cam Ward at Miami is wildly intriguing and has the potential to be great, but the Hurricane’s head coach is still Mario Cristobal - a man who would run the ball 800 times per game if it were entirely up to him. So I’m going to go with Dillon Gabriel at Oregon after transferring from Oklahoma. Gabriel is already one of the most prolific passers in recent college football history (nearly 15,000 yards and 125 touchdowns in his career), and will now be joining a coaching staff that morphed Bo Nix into a punchline into a potential first-round pick. Gabriel’s size and arm strength will almost certainly limit him from being more than anything but an NFL backup, but while he’s still in college, he’s going to put up yards and points. Oregon will be playing a multitude of Big Ten defenses who haven’t seen a forward pass in half a decade. Gabriel is going to tear them up.

Rand: You’re certainly right that Cristobal would run the ball 800 times a game if he could, but lest we forget the great KneeGate of 2023 when he ran it against Georgia Tech (who had no timeouts) up by three with 35 seconds remaining when he simply could’ve kneed it to end the game? Fumble, Georgia Tech recovers, Hail Mary, Game Over. Another Masterclass in coaching brought to you by Mario Cristobal. I’m going pretty off the radar here and picking a sophomore QB whose career passing line is 1-3 for 0 yards. Malachi Nelson was a 5-star QB in last year’s class and was heralded as Lincoln Riley’s next Heisman-winning QB at USC once Caleb Williams left. After surgery to his non-throwing arm, inconsistent development (remember, he was a freshman last year), and the surprise emergence of Miller Moss, Nelson entered the portal and wound up on the Smurf Turf in Boise. The Mountain West is a competitive league and has produced Jordan Love, Kellen Moore, Jared Zabaransky, Colin Kaepernick, Chuckie Keeton, Colt Brennan, and David Carr at the QB position. Alright maybe I just wanted to remember some dudes but anytime Nelson steps on the field he will be the most talented player and I’m intrigued by his new OC in Dirk Koetter who returns to Boise after 10+ years of playcalling in the NFL. My honorable mention pick is KJ Jefferson who transferred from Arkansas to UCF and should excel in Gus Malzahn’s QB-friendly offense known for putting up points.

Which transfer QB are you most intrigued by but have no idea if it will work or not?

Rand: After Mike Elko left Durham for College Station and Notre Dame threw the bag for the second straight offseason at a Tobacco Road QB, Duke was left with a pretty empty football facility. Former Miami head coach Manny Diaz revived his career leading Penn State’s defense and parlayed his coordinator success into the Duke head coaching job. Into the portal he went and out he came with former Texas QB Maalik Murphy which got a Eugene Levy-sized eyebrow raise from me. Murphy is a former 4-star QB from California but spent last year backing up Quinn Ewers earning a few starts (both wins) when Ewers hurt his shoulder midseason. If you recall, Texas had (and still has) another QB sitting on their roster by the name of Arch Manning, who Murphy beat out for the backup job. Even last spring after Ewers posted an underwhelming and injury-riddled 2022 season at Texas, there was serious buzz that Murphy might beat him out. Murphy has all the talent and potential in the world but his sporadic playing time has left him with a career passing log of 40-71, 56% completion rate, 477 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Color me dark blue interested to see how he performs under a new, defensive-minded regime in Durham and an offense that returns just 53% of their offensive production which ranks 93rd in the country per Bill Connelly at ESPN. A quick peek at their 2024 schedule yields the conclusion that their non-conference schedule is an absolute joke but they draw Florida State, SMU’s high-octane offense, an improved Virginia Tech & Georgia Tech, a trip to Miami, and all of Tobacco Road. Good luck M&M. (I reserve the right to patent that nickname for Manny Diaz & Maalik Murphy if needed).

Tate: You likely have no earthly idea who this is yet, but words cannot quite describe how intrigued I am by Aidan Chiles at Michigan State. If I had to describe my level of intrigue with words, I would say I’m “extremely intrigued.” See, who needs journalism school? Anyway, Chiles was a true freshman last year at Oregon State and followed his head coach Jonathan Smith over to East Lansing, MI. You might remember that Oregon State’s quarterback last year was DJ Uiagalelei, but people around the Oregon State program were singing Chiles’ praises - again, as a true freshman - before DJU ever played a snap. In fact, there was buzz later in the season that the only reason Chiles hadn’t taken over for DJU was because of promises made to DJU when he transferred in. There’s nothing I enjoy more than buying into completely unwarranted buzz on a player before he ever proves a damn thing, and Chiles is that guy for me this year. I’m not expecting Michigan State to shock the world in the Big Ten, but I’m intrigued to see if their QB play catches people by surprise this year. Chiles could be a star in the making.

Which returning QB are you most excited about coming back (to the same team)?

Tate: The easy answer for any sane, moral person would be Carson Beck, but Rand has set aside some time to talk about Beck down below, so I’ll leave him out of this conversation. Without him, my other easy answer is Jaxson Dart. Dart has thrown for over 6,000 yards and 43 TDs over his past two years at Ole Miss, returns arguably the best-returning receiver in the SEC in Tre Harris, and also added arguably the other best-returning receiver in the SEC in South Carolina’s Juice Wells. The Rebels have only been held back by their defense under Lane Kiffin, but this offseason had the best transfer class in the country led by #1 transfer player in DL Walter Nolen, who will be joined by several other talented defensive transfers. I already know Dart is going to light it up, but it’s starting to look like the Rebels are going to be a true force to be reckoned with this season, and I’m expecting him to become a household name in short order. 

Rand: Keep in mind Jaxson Dart and company have to make a trip to the vaunted Groves/BB&T/Truist/Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium on September 14th, Mr. Smillie. Incredulously they’re a lifetime 0-1 in the Dash and 0-2 all-time against the Deacs. I’m going to stay in the SEC and go with Jalen Milroe at Alabama but for completely different reasons than Tate’s man crush Jaxson Dart & Ole Miss. We all remember Milroe’s story from last year: sucked against Texas, benched against USF, ‘wins’ the job back only because the rest of the Bama QBs were worse, improves throughout the year, leads the Tide over Georgia in the SEC Championship, and nearly beats Michigan in the playoff. Akin to Josh Allen or Joe Milton, Milroe can launch a football farther than almost anyone walking this planet but cannot throw a short or intermediate pass to save his life. Enter new head coach Kalen DeBoer who just oversaw QB Michael Penix Jr, and the three-headed WR corps that rivals some of the best in CFB history. Other than replacing the greatest coach of all time, losing his prized OC Ryan Grubb to the Seahawks a few weeks before spring practice, losing 10+ players in the transfer portal, and merely trying to keep the Alabama Death Star from blowing up, having a competent and reliable Jalen Milroe would go a long way for DeBoer in his first year in Tuscaloosa.

What about a program that looks set at QB, but needs that guy to establish themselves right away?

Rand: Let’s do a quick rundown of Ohio State’s projected 2024 roster. At running back they return first-team All-Big Ten RB TreVeon Henderson who has over 3,000 career yards and 36 TDs to his name. For shits and gigs apparently (or because they’re Ohio State) they picked up two-time All-SEC RB and junior Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss who has amassed 3,000+ yards and 34 TDs in just two years. At WR they return two-time All-Big Ten Emeka Egbuka and bring in #1 overall recruit Jeremiah Smith who’s currently being touted as the best WR prospect Ohio State has ever had. If either one gets hurt or flames out they can simply turn to Brandon Inniss, Carnell Tate, or Mylan Graham all of whom are former five-star recruits. If the five former five stars I just listed don’t pan out they’ve got a stable of former four-star WRs to turn to in Jayden Ballard, Bryson Rodgers, Kyion Grayes, and Kojo Antwi. With future first-round picks JT Tuimolau and Jack Sawyer anchoring the defensive line and 2023 first-team All-Big Ten lockdown corner Denzel Burke back for another year, Ohio State should have one of the nation’s top defenses. Oh, and just for shits and gigs (or because they’re Ohio State) they added Freshman All-American S Caleb Downs from Alabama who is already the best defensive player in college football and will likely enter the Eric Berry, Ed Reed, Patrick Peterson, Honey Badger echelon of college safeties. It’s national championship or bust for the Buckeyes and Ryan Day this year and they need Kansas State QB transfer Will Howard to work out. If not, they’ll simply turn the reins over to former five-stars Julian Sayin or Air Noland. It’s pretty good being a Buckeye fan, aside from the fact they haven’t beaten Michigan since 2019. 

Tate: Rand took a great answer from me because Ryan Day and Ohio State are fully in Natty or Bust mode this season. But outside of the Buckeyes, the obvious choice to me here is Notre Dame. The Irish have had good-but-not-great teams for seemingly 15 years straight now, and a lot of their lack of greatness can be attributed to an impressive run of absolutely mediocre quarterback play. Whether it was Everett Golson, Deshone Kizer, Ian Book, Jack Coan, or Drew Pyne, Notre Dame has always been held back by not having that guy at QB. The Irish attempted the veteran transfer concept last season with Sam Hartman, and while Hartman was good, his surrounding team wasn’t quite good enough to be a threat for the 4-team College Football Playoff. Well now we’re in a 12-team playoff world, and ND once again signed a very talented ACC quarterback in Duke’s Riley Leonard. Talent and athleticism-wise, Leonard is probably the best QB that will suit up for the Irish in over a decade. I’m very interested to see whether having something other than the most average pocket passer in America could vault ND into the next tier - especially in a 12-team playoff format.

Did you really think we were going to send a newsletter without mentioning Wake Forest or Georgia? Where do they stand with their signal caller(s)?

Tate: Carson Beck threw for 3,941 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2023, despite Kirby Smart telling ESPN last week that early in the season, “we probably did try to protect him too much… we were probably a little too slow with him out of the gate.” Beck is the early leader as next year’s QB1 in the NFL draft, and there is little doubt amongst the Georgia fanbase that he is going to put up over 4,000 yards and close to 30 touchdowns this season. He has the arm, the accuracy, the poise, the consistency, and a Lamborghini. There’s not really much else to say here.

But the coaching staff is high on backup Gunner Stockton as well! Kirby sang his praises this week following UGA’s first spring scrimmage on Saturday, and given that Stockton will be in his third year in the system, the Dawgs will be in more-than-good hands should anything illegal or terroristic/Auburn happen to Beck. Gunner balled out in the bowl game against FSU (6-10 for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 46 rushing yards), and has the athletic/running ability to keep defenses on their toes. He could be the future at QB for UGA… but let’s keep all of that for 2025 for now.

Rand: Beck better stay under the speed limit in the Lambo because if caught he’d be the 15th? 16th? 28th? Georgia football player charged or arrested for driving-related offenses in the past year. Google it if you don’t believe me. Anywho, turns out replacing one of the best QBs in program history (Sam Hartman) with a carousel of guys who have never played meaningful college snaps is actually not that easy! Mitch Griffis and Michael Kern took turns struggling on the field and in the injury room when they weren’t which led to a disappointing 4-8 season for the Deacs. Kern - who looked decent in his limited action before injuring his shoulder which cost him the season - is back for his sixth (!!) and final year and was battling for the QB1 job with transfer QB Hank Bachmeier before he injured his finger and will be out the rest of the spring. Bachmeier is also in his sixth and final year of eligibility after transferring from Louisiana Tech and Boise State before that. Bachmeier had a fair amount of success at Boise State under Bryan Harsin but injuries cut a couple of seasons short. Most notably he led a Week 1 18-point comeback & upset over Florida State as a true freshman. That game was supposed to be played in Jacksonville but moved to Tallahassee in the 11th hour because of a hurricane gifting FSU a home game. I got off track quickly there but always have to take a jab at future SEC member and Saudi Arabian PIF-funded FSU when I can. Early returns from spring camp have been positive for Bachmeier and his experienced WR room, but I expect the QB competition to last deep into fall camp once Kern returns so there will be plenty more to come on this QB battle.

I don’t normally pay attention to QB3 battles and certainly shouldn’t given the transfer portal exists but I’m interested to see who wins between redshirt freshman Charlie Gilliam and highly touted early enrollee Jeremy Hecklinski and what it means for the 2025 Deacs. Speaking of stuff in the future, by the time you hear from us again next week, Wake might’ve picked up a commit from 2025 QB recruit Cutter Woods who has an illustrious name and luscious, Trevor Lawrence-esque hair. With that name and hairstyle, it’d be illegal for him to be from anywhere other than South Carolina. checks notes anddddd he’s from Anderson. Perfect. 

Texts of the Week

“Who is B Hagan, he’s my worst enemy…I am simply a sad, distant third” - Jack Zucker who is a sad, distant third in the bracket pool with a 0.0% chance of winning

“Bronny to UGA after we win the NIT” - Alex Sztejnberg, Tuesday 9:13pm

“I can’t believe we aren’t getting Bronny” - Alex Sztejnberg, Wednesday 12:38pm

“If you’re not watching the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond right now then you rooted for the British in the Revolutionary War” - Sam Weinbach

“Would there theoretically be a NIT Championship parade in Athens? Asking for a friend.” - Adam David

Where in the World is Tate?

I’ll be headed to Memphis, Tennessee to celebrate one of my best friends, and more importantly 4th & Forever reader, Alec Nathan’s wedding. I’ve never been to Memphis and am very excited to see the 8th wonder of the world, the Bass Pro Shop pyramid. I can’t wait to see many of you here and celebrate with Alec and Hayley, whose first full day of marriage will be toasted by the sun and the moon with a total eclipse on Monday. If any Georgia Basketball transfer portal news happens during the ceremony, Alec knows that I may have to step away from the rest of the groomsmen to see what our message boards are saying. I’ll only be able to celebrate Alec’s wedding once, but at the same time, I may never again see the Hoop Dawgs sign a mid-major power forward who averaged 9.4 rebounds a game in the SOCON last year. Life is about managing priorities.

Have a great weekend and we’ll talk to you again next Thursday. Boiler Up.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.