Back from the Dead: Week 3 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. A phoenix rising from the ashes, the entire Democratic party, and now most importantly: the Pac-12 conference. On the week of the Civil War & Apple Cup, Oregon State and Washington State - the two lone members of the Pac-12 - announced Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State will be joining to remake the conference from the rubble that it currently is. That would put the PAC-12 at six members, two short of the needed eight to be recognized as a full conference by the NCAA to be considered for championship/tournament/playoff births, so there will likely be more dominos falling in the near future. We’ll break down the repercussions at a later date because we’ve got football to watch, not media rights and exit fees to analyze. Just know that nothing is ever truly dead in this world, except those dogs in Springfield, Ohio.

Seven Week 3 Games to Watch

#20 Arizona (2-0) @ #14 Kansas State (2-0): KSU -7, O/U 60.5 - Friday 8:00pm ET FOX

You might look at this matchup and think this is a huge, early-season matchup between two of the Big 12 best teams. You’d be right except this is a non conference matchup and won’t count in the conference standings. While this remains a crucial tilt for both teams who try to separate themselves from the rest of the conference contenders - namely Utah, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State - it will not solve the jumbled mess of teams at the top of the Big 12 all of whom are ranked between #12 and #21 in the AP Poll. Wake Forest and UNC set a precedent for scheduling non conference games between conference foes earlier this decade but the difference is this matchup was scheduled pre-Big 12 expansion when Arizona was in the Pac-12. UNC and Wake scheduled each other as conference members but in different ACC divisions. 

Arizona heads to the Little Apple after thrashing New Mexico in Week 1 and surviving a scare against FCS Northern Arizona 22-10. NAU’s game plan was to let anyone but WR Tet McMillan beat them and it almost worked. One week after going for 304 yards and 4 TDs, the Lumberjacks limited him to 2 receptions for 11 yards. Arizona racked up 200 yards on the ground to secure the win but they’re going to have to figure out a plan to get McMillan the ball consistently because running against Kansas State is hard, but not impossible. Tulane had some success on the ground last week against KSU but Arizona’s strength is QB Noah Fifita finding McMillan and it’s really that simple because they’re that good. 

Kansas State is led by QB Avery Johnson whose most important attribute is his hair which is some of the best in college football. Unlike former best-hair-in-college-football winners like Trevor Lawrence or Sam Hartman, he’s yet to eclipse 200 yards passing in three games as a college starter. We’re nowhere near writing him off yet however, Kansas State ran off Will Howard who landed at Ohio State in favor of this kid. The staff is high on him and he hasn’t lost yet, but the jury is out on whether he can win a game himself yet. For comparison, Howard threw for over 250 yards on six occasions last year so don’t give us the “Kansas State is a running game and defense first team” nonsense. That being said, they’ve got a 1-2 punch in the backfield that rivals the best in the nation. DJ Giddens and Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards have combined for over 334 yards on 41 carries. Quick math…carry the 1…yep that’s 8.1 yards/carry. Arizona LBs Jacob Manu and Taye Brown will have their hands full trying to contain the Wildcat rushing attack along with Avery Johnson who can scoot some too. 

#4 Alabama (2-0) @ Wisconsin (2-0): ALA -16, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Alabama heads north to take on the Badgers in one of the more interesting matchups of the week. Alabama looked pretty pedestrian last week against USF, but that’s a pesky Bulls team with some very talented players and a hard offensive system to gameplan for. The Tide have not yet been clicking on all cylinders this year but the amount of talent they have on both sides of the ball doesn’t have us too worried about them yet - and that talent has certainly flashed at times already.

Previewing Alabama games with Jalen Milroe gets repetitive because everybody is trying to do the same thing - keep him in the pocket and make him deliver consistent passes, because that is the only area he does not excel. USF was able to do a little bit of that because of the absence of starting left tackle Kadyn Proctor, whose replacement committed countless penalties and missed multiple assignments that completely broke plays for the offense. Wisconsin is not overly talented on the edge and it sounds like Proctor may be back for this one, so uhhh, good luck Badgers.

For Wisconsin, we’re not expecting much offensively here. We’re not big Tyler Van Dyke believers here at 4&F, and we certainly are not big believers in the receivers he’s throwing the ball to. With that said, Alabama’s very young secondary has absolutely busted coverages a few times in each of their first two games, so if Alabama’s offense can’t entirely get things going early in this one, we could be only one or two big plays from Wisconsin’s offense away from maybe having a good game in the second half. This is an opportunity for Alabama to play a good 60 minutes of football for the first time and make a statement before their huge matchup with UGA in two weeks.

#16 LSU (1-1) @ South Carolina (2-0): LSU -7, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

The Tigers are geauxing all the way to Columbia to take on the Cocks and for some very confusing reason, College GameDay decided to show up as well. Sidenote from Rand: last week’s Kentucky-South Carolina game became a de facto ‘winner gets GameDay’ game because GameDay would very likely be in Lexington had Kentucky not lost to UofSC. If you really want to get into the weeds, the GameDay buses also need to stay in the Southeast and not head to Corvallis for example because they’re likely heading to Norman or Stillwater next weekend. These two teams have hardly looked like SEC contenders so far this season, with LSU dropping their first game to USC and South Carolina nearly dropping their opener to Old Dominion. But there is a significant amount of angst amongst both fanbases here for various reasons, and there’s some fun talent to keep your eye on as well.

Whether this game turns into an LSU blowout or a Carolina scare will come down to LSU’s offensive line vs. South Carolina’s defensive line. LSU’s tackles (Will Campbell at left, Emory Jones Jr. at right) are future first round picks, but they have not yet been tested the way the Gamecocks defensive front has the ability to test them. South Carolina pulled off a major victory on the recruiting trail last cycle, keeping 5-star EDGE Dylan Stewart to stay in his home state rather than heading up to Ohio State, and now Stewart looks like he’s going to be one of the most dominant players in the country over the next few years. Stewart already has 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles and was doing this type of stuff to Old Dominion all game two weeks ago. Stewart still has some years to play, but we’re looking at a potential future #1 overall pick trying to get home against two potential first round tackles, which is always awesome.

If LSU can get out to an early lead here, this one could be over quickly. But the Tigers haven’t exactly come out of the gates firing offensively in either of their first two games and South Carolina has the ability to cause them trouble. On the South Carolina end, they’ve got to figure out a way to move the ball down the field more consistently. We’d like to see them spell Lanorris Sellers with a sprinkle of Robbie Ashford at QB to give LSU’s defense something else to worry about - Ashford looked explosive as a runner last week against Kentucky when Sellers missed much of the 2nd quarter with injury, and since Sellers isn’t a great thrower of the football anyway, you’re not missing much despite the fact that Ashford is even worse in that area. This has the potential to be a fun game, with both fanbases on pins and needles needing a win here. Count us in.

#24 Boston College (2-0) @ #6 Missouri (2-0): MIZ -16, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:45pm ET SECN

After all the Big 10 and SEC expansion we’ve had the promise of more preeminent matchups and ranked v ranked games we’re left with Boston College - Missouri as our only Saturday ranked matchup. Maybe if Florida, Florida State, Texas A&M, and Kentucky had their ducks in a row we’d have some more palatable matchups but it’s merely Week 3 and we’d commit a felony (for legal purposes this is a joke) to watch a quarter of Boston College Missouri on a Saturday in April. 

We all saw what Boston College did to Florida State on Labor Day by running the ball down their throats and asking QB Thomas Castellanos to throw it only when necessary. They’re coming off a 56-0 win over Duquesne which whatever. Missouri is the least talked about Top 10 team and it’s likely because they opened the season beating Murray State & Buffalo by a combined 89-0. Unlike Florida State, Boston College will have to prepare for a Missouri team that can run, block, tackle, throw, and catch or simply knows the fundamentals of Pee Wee football. Brady Cook has WRs Theo Wease Jr and future top 10 pick Luther Burden III to throw to and App State RB transfer Nate Noel at his disposal out of the backfield. Boston College will need to put together drives and keep the ball away from Mizzou’s potent offense to have a chance. The Tiger’s defense is untested but has yet to surrender a point much less allow their YMCA competition to enter the red zone. Castellanos and company are no strangers to being underdogs as all the pressure and attention will be on Missouri which hasn’t faced a legitimate opponent since January. 

Tulane (1-1) @ #15 Oklahoma (2-0): OU -13.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

Say what you will about this Week 3 slate, but folks, we’ve got a potential banger on our hands. Tulane took Big 12 and playoff contender Kansas State down to the wire last weekend and currently looks like one of the G5’s best teams and a potential playoff contender themselves. If you haven’t gotten your eyes on Green Wave QB Darian Mensah yet, then you need to tune into this game. Mensah spent last season on the scout team and entered fall camp as the third string QB this season, but apparently balled so incredibly hard that he beat out the two guys in front of him, including former 5-star Oregon transfer Ty Thompson who was the presumed starter. That announcement concerned a lot of people about Tulane initially, but now that we’ve seen Mensah play, it’s become very apparent that he is just entirely too good to keep off of the field. He has the Tulane offense humming right now and has made the Green Wave a dangerous team for anybody to play right now.

For Oklahoma, things are… not humming offensively right now. The Sooners are coming off a dreadful performance, only putting up 16 points and nearly losing to a truly terrible Houston team. It’s one thing when your staff and team express concern about their offense postgame, but Oklahoma looked absolutely flustered and completely lost on offense during the game last Saturday. The offensive line looks absolutely horrible (as we predicted it might in our Big 12 Preview this offseason!) and OU is banged up at receiver at the moment. That’s far from ideal as they welcome Mensah and this tricky Tulane squad this weekend. Maybe a week of preparation for the Sooners to work around those issues is all they need, but regardless, we have Oklahoma on major upset alert here and are expecting some genuine entertainment in this one.

#9 Oregon (2-0) @ Oregon State (2-0): ORE -16, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

Historically, the Civil War is played on Rivalry Week just like every other regional rivalry in college football. Thanks to conference realignment we get this matchup in mid-September while Oregon State heads to Boise and Oregon hosts Washington on Thanksgiving weekend. Expect the atmosphere in Corvallis to be ear-splittingly raucous. This is the first matchup between the two schools at Reser Stadium since Oregon effectively blew up the Pac-12 and darted for the Big 10 last summer with Washington. Akin to Texas leaving for the SEC and Oklahoma being a secondary prize, Oregon was the ringleader and mastermind. No one wants just Washington or Oklahoma, they’re only attractive as part of a package deal with Oregon and Texas respectively. Nothing was more emblematic of their lack of remorse for blowing up a 100-plus-year-old conference and leaving their ugly stepbrother out to die more so than one of their Board of Trustees dialing into the vote during a round of golf. Something we’re sure the Beavers fans have not easily forgotten.  

A lot of ink has been spilled over the Ducks’ early season struggles but not much is known about the new look Beavers. After all, their head coach and alumnus Jonathan Smith left for East Lansing while DJU is now chucking ducks (no pun intended) in Tallahassee and star RB Damien Martinez is in South Beach. QB Gevani McCoy transferred in from Idaho and the early season returns are promising even if those two games were against Idaho State and San Diego State. Their stable of running backs has gone for a combined 599 yards and 6 TDs which is top 5 in the country. Beavs head coach Trent Bray will look to exploit Oregon’s mediocre rush defense which gave up 221 yards and 3 TDs on the ground to Boise last week. 

Oregon (should) know it needs to watch out here. Oregon State has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Aka this is their Super Bowl. Oregon’s problem first and foremost is on the offensive line. They cannot get healthy and find a steady rotation which has led to 7 sacks allowed through 2 games good for 120th in the nation. Furthermore, they’ve been flagged 17 times which is 111th in the nation and most of those are holding or procedural. When the offense is on schedule and QB Dillon Gabriel is given time, he’s been lethal, particularly to WR Evan Stewart. On the season, Gabriel is 59/70 (83% completion rate) for 623 yards, 4 TDs, and no interceptions. Keeping Gabriel upright is integral to Oregon’s success in this game and moving forward, but that’s easier said than done in a noisy road environment with a scotch tape offensive line. 

Texas A&M (1-1) @ Florida (1-1): TAMU -3.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

While we can’t entirely refer to this game as an Anxiety Bowl considering it’s only Game 3 of the Mike Elko era, it’s about as close to an Anxiety Bowl for both squads as you can get in Gainesville this Saturday. The Texas A&M offense looked absolutely horrendous against Notre Dame in Week 1, but bounced back and looked sharp last week against McNeese State to get a little bit of their mojo back. QB Conner Weigman specifically looked to be playing with confidence, which was entirely nonexistent two weeks ago. A&M needs to come out with some life on offense in the Swamp or we’re looking at another uninspiring loss early in Mike Elko’s tenure.

On the Florida end, though, it’s not exactly like things have been clicking on all cylinders either. We all saw the embarrassing home blowout loss to Miami in Week 1, and near the end of that game QB Graham Mertz was taken out and put into the concussion protocol. That gave 5-star freshman DJ Lagway (the #1 QB in last year’s cycle) the start against Samford last week, and he seemed to give the Gators a spark that was completely missing against the Hurricanes two weeks ago. Billy Napier has still not named a starter for this game as Mertz is still recovering, and while we certainly don’t think Mertz is Florida’s main problem right now, we think Napier has to roll with Lagway’s upside to have any hope of pulling off some upsets and save his job.

One more interesting note on Lagway: he is from Texas, and the team that Florida beat out to land his commitment was, you guessed it, A&M. If Napier is fired this year, is this Saturday’s game a look at Lagway playing against his future team? We’ll see! This may not be the highest level of football you see this weekend, but this game is going to shape the narrative on two different SEC teams’ seasons, and Lagway just might already be must-watch TV. Get this game on one of your screens.

Eight More Games to Watch if You’re a Sicko Like Us

Arizona State (2-0) @ Texas State (2-0): ASU -1.5, O/U 59.5 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Have you ever watched a game from San Marcos? The NFL may have taken over our lovely Thursday nights in recent years, but ESPN happened to put a lowkey banger next to Bills vs Dolphins tonight. Texas State is looking like a potential playoff team in the G5’s spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff due to their relentless pursuit of scoring one billion points every time they step on the field. They eviscerated UTSA - one of the G5’s best teams over the last few seasons - last week in what was truly a statement game. QB Jordan McCloud (James Madison transfer) is lighting it up in GJ Kinne’s offense - this is one of the most exciting teams in the country to watch, so we suggest you do. They’re playing Arizona State who is off to a nice 2-0 start including a win over Mississippi State last week. They, too, enjoy playing lots of offense and very little defense, so this will be a fun one tonight.

UNLV (2-0) @ Kansas (1-1): KU -7.5, O/U 58.5 - Friday 7:00pm ET ESPN

A rematch of the 2023 Guaranteed Rate Bowl!? How lucky are we!? $20 from Tate if you can tell him - without looking it up - who won and better yet, where the Guaranteed Rate bowl is even held. After holding Illinois to a paltry 271 yards of total offense and still losing thanks to 4 turnovers, Kansas is forced to pick up the pieces at home on a short week against a G5 school that might not be a fun game. UNLV is led by former Mizzou head coach Barry Odom who won 9 games in his inaugural season last year. UNLV is a historic doormat that before last year had only been to 4 bowl games in its history. UNLV smoked Houston 27-7 in Houston a week before the Cougars took Oklahoma down to the wire and then beat Utah Tech 72-14 which is a likely front for Mormons to stash cash and keep it in the family. The Rebels are a run-first offense with a stout defense to balance them out. Their QB Matthew Sluka did little damage against Houston and Utah Tech but WR Ricky White Jr is one of the best wideouts in the country. As always, Kansas lives or dies at the hands of Jalon Daniels who has four picks in two games. This is a sneaky good game on Friday night, unless you’re a Jayhawks fan because this could turn into an anxiety attack real quick. 

Memphis (2-0) @ Florida State (0-2): FSU -6.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

In our Week 1 preview before the FSU-BC game we opined that “there’s nothing the FSU staff and fans want more than this team to slip away into oblivion for a few weeks while they figure out their offense.” Well FSU got their wish with a bye week last week but the toothpaste is out of the tube, this offense is buns. Enter Mike Norvell’s former school and G5 playoff spot contender Memphis. They’ve spent the past two weeks demolishing North Alabama and Troy while QB Seth Henigan has been efficient and methodical leading the offense in his fourth year at the helm. Emphasis added because can you name another QB who’s entering his fourth year as a starter at the same school, especially in today’s transfer portal age? They have to be good enough to start all four years but just shitty enough to not get NFL buzz. Last year, the Tigers had the 6th best-scoring offense in the country at 40 points/game and one of the best passing attacks in the nation. Georgia Tech and Boston College did most of their damage on the ground so we’re interested to see how their untested secondary holds up against an aerial attack. Norvell and DJU better not lose this game or else FSU fans are going to make the Miami drug busts of the 1980s look like a birthday party. 

#18 Notre Dame (1-1) @ Purdue (1-0): ND -10, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

So, Coach Freeman, what did you have to say for yourself and the team’s performance following the loss at home to Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite? “It's disappointing. You go from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows in a tale of two weeks, but we've got to own this thing.” One week ago, everyone in college football media including this very newsletter was lauding Notre Dame for their win in College Station and slotting them in for a playoff at-large berth. From our Week 1 Recap: “[Notre Dame] can be wiped from your consciousness for the next three weeks. Don’t go full amnesia… [ND] certainly isn’t immune to laying eggs.” We expected the egg-laying to occur against Louisville or Purdue, not a MAC team but do we get credit for not fully believing in the Irish? We vote yes, and Freeman did the honors of explaining our rationale for us: “We've been here before, right? We've been here before.” 

Yes, the Irish have been here before and while it’s hilarious for us, it’s not a good thing for Freeman or the country’s most recognizable football brand. In 2022 they lost to Marshall and Stanford who finished the year 3-9 and fired David Shaw after the season. In his now third year at the helm, Freeman has now lost five games in which he was favored and only beaten one team as the underdog which was the TAMU game. Brian Kelly is persona non grata after ditching the Irish for LSU but in his 12 years in South Bend, they weren’t losing to MAC teams. His worst losses were to Tulsa and USF but those were in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Freeman and new OC Mike Denbrock have to figure out how to get the passing game going with QB Riley Leonard. Through two games he’s thrown for a total of 323 yards with 2 picks and no touchdowns. Dating back to the start of last year, Notre Dame has had a receiver gain 100+ yards in a game just twice and that was against Wake and Duke. They’ve been trying to do what Michigan did last year for the past decade. The notable difference aside from Michigan actually doing it is Notre Dame can’t get out of its own way and lacks accountability and leadership…kinda like the Catholic Church, no?

This week the Irish head to West Lafayette and face a Purdue team who we know little about. After a 49-0 drubbing of Indiana State in Week 1 they had a bye in Week 2. QB Hudson Card was in the same recruiting class as Bryce Young (and DJU for that matter) but has yet to show his 4-star promise. In year two under head coach Ryan Walters they should show improvement over last year’s 4-8 record. They returned four offensive linemen and hammered the transfer portal on both sides of the ball so on paper we expect improvement. They face a difficult conference schedule but don’t be surprised if the Boilermakers make some noise in the Big 10 this year, and it might start this weekend. 

Washington State (2-0) v Washington (2-0) in Seattle (Lumen Field): WASH -4.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET Peacock

We mentioned the elevated disdain Oregon State has for Oregon given their move to the Big 10 but don’t ask Wazzu fans if they feel any differently. Washington still voted to leave and left the Cougs wandering the abyss of Eastern Washington more than they already are. Did you know Pullman is closer to Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Canada than it is to Seattle? Anywho, both teams come in as relatively unknown quantities. Washington is getting acquainted with an entirely new staff and roster from last year’s national championship appearance while Washington State kept head coach Jake Dickert but is dealing with life post-Cam Ward and post-Pac-12. Washington’s transfer QB Will Rogers (Mississippi State) threw for a bajillion yards under Mike Leach and that hasn’t seemed to drop off albeit against Eastern Michigan and Weber State. Sidenote: how many damn colleges are in Utah? The number of football programs per capita has to be one of the highest in the country. Wazzu surprised many by stomping Texas Tech last weekend but that might say more about the Red Raiders than it does the Cougars. No real read on what will happen in the game aside from a few fights in the stands 

West Virginia (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-0): WVU -2, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

We get into the off the field news surrounding Pitt below in Quick Hitters but we’re not going to let some boardroom politics distract us from one the meanest rivalries this sport has to offer. The Backyard Brawl is one of those rivalries where the name accurately encapsulates the state of the rivalry. Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t remember any Civil Wars being fought in Oregon. West Virginia and Pitt are separated by less than 200 miles and it’s a rivalry West Virginia takes very seriously while Pitt thumbs their nose at the notion of playing WVU and considers their main rival Penn State. Kinda sounds like Tobacco Road, no? Based on stories from former players and coaches it’s commonplace that the visiting team will have their bus pelted with rocks and players spit on. In the 1970’s when West Virginia head coach Bobby Bowden allowed a 27-point comeback to Pitt, he had his team stay in the locker room for an extra hour because Mountaineer fans were trying to break in and beat him up. This is a fantastic rivalry that we’re glad is back after, guess what, a consequence of conference realignment caused a decade-plus long hiatus. Very few need to be reminded of the 2007 edition where a 4-7 Pitt team knocked off #2 West Virginia and cost Pat White and Steve Slaton a shot at the national title. They play again, both teams are mid, we’re still watching.

App State (1-1) @ ECU (2-0): APP -2.5, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPNU

Battle of the Beards! App State needs to rebound quickly from their slaughtering in Death Valley because Dowdy–Ficklen Stadium is one of the toughest environments in the G5 when ECU is going. The Pirates have broken the space-time continuum or something because through 2 games they have turned the ball over 10 times - 7 interceptions and 3 fumbles - yet are 2-0. The answer is 1) Norfolk State and Old Dominion suck (don’t tell South Carolina fans that) and 2) their defense might be good? Might be safer to give more credence to reason one. A blowout at the hands of Clemson will not deter our belief that you never want to face App State but we have no clue what either of these teams are so we’re expecting literal and figurative fireworks and copious amounts of alcohol consumed in eastern North Carolina on Saturday afternoon.

UCF (2-0) @ TCU (2-0): UCF -2.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET FOX

This game is on here purely because of the point spread. Both team's philosophy is to score as many points as possible and defense is only an impediment to getting their offense back on the field. Secondly, this might be the best game on Saturday night. Your other options are watching Georgia run the ball down Kentucky’s throats in the rain, Indiana @ UCLA in a Big 10 conference matchup (eye roll), Auburn trying to not lose at home to the other FBS school in New Mexico like they did last year, or Deion’s Circus traveling to Fort Collins and facing Colorado State. We’ve lost the plot here but the winner of the UCF TCU game will score a ton of points and will be T-1 in the Big 12. 

Quick Hitters & Follow us on Twitter

Last Saturday primarily during the noon slate we had some fun on Elon Musk’s $44 billion dollar cesspool formerly known as Twitter. Come hang out with us throughout the season as we’re always on the lookout for humorous stuff that can’t always fit in this newsletter. Find us @_4thandforever or here.

Pitt is one of the loudest and most dysfunctional middle-of-the-road P4 teams in the nation and these past 5 days have been no expectation. On Saturday, they came from 21 down in the second half to beat Cinicannatti on the road courtesy of a buzzer-beater field goal. Eulogies were being written about head coach Pat Narduzzi’s tenure in the Steel City at halftime and it’s primarily because no team should look lifeless against Scott Satterfield’s Cincy teams which is a whole other issue we discussed this offseason. 

In an unrelated move to the thrilling win on Saturday, earlier this week Pitt’s chancellor announced she fired Athletic Director Heather Lyke. If this sounds as drab as someone from Cincinnati talking about how good their chili is, bear with us. Last year, Heather Lyke won AD of the Year and has seemingly stabilized and elevated the athletic department. This move was a shock to everyone in college athletics and we’re not taking the reports that Lyke was fired because of disagreements over the role of NIL seriously. Lyke had been up for other AD jobs recently - Ohio State & Northwestern - but that’s a reason to keep her around, not fire her. We think something fishy is going on here and it’d behoove Narduzzi and company to not make the #1 priority of the new AD to find a new football coach. 

This cannabis startup pioneered “rapid onset” gummies

Most people prefer to smoke cannabis but that isn’t an option if you’re at work or in public.

That’s why we were so excited when we found out about Mood’s new Rapid Onset THC Gummies. They can take effect in as little as 5 minutes without the need for a lighter, lingering smells or any coughing.

Nobody will ever know you’re enjoying some THC.

We recommend you try them out because they offer a 100% money-back guarantee. And for a limited time, you can receive 20% off with code FIRST20.

Shop Now.

Tate’s Great Picks (9-10)

#4 Alabama (2-0) @ Wisconsin (2-0): ALA -16, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick Alabama -16: Alabama was as sloppy as can be against a really tricky USF team and still managed to pull away at the end. They’re going to be fired up to go on the road and prove they’re still one of the nation’s best teams. Starting left tackle Kadyn Proctor may be back as well, which will instantly solve the OL penalty issues we saw against the Bulls from his replacement who committed about 9 penalties. Bama rolls here in a statement game.

Arizona State (2-0) @ Texas State (2-0): ASU -2, O/U 58.5 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Pick Texas State +1.5: What Arizona State is exactly is still to be determined, but we know exactly what Texas State is: high-flying, well-executed offense for 60 minutes. Texas State is at home here and has an established identity as one of the best G5 teams in the country this year. The Bobcats pull off the upset Thursday night.

Tulane (1-1) @ #15 Oklahoma (2-0): OU -13.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

Pick Tulane +13.5: Oklahoma looked like garbage last week in a way that is genuinely concerning. The offensive line is not good at Jackson Arnold, for as much as we have praised him, looked like a deer in headlights when he didn’t have any time to throw against Houston. They’ll have to be humming offensively to cover this spread because Tulane’s star freshman QB Darian Mensah is going to put up some points. Tulane covers.

#16 LSU (1-1) @ South Carolina (2-0): LSU -7, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Pick LSU -7: The line being this low scares me a little bit, but also makes me want to hammer LSU. LSU’s defensive issues are almost entirely about their DBs, but South Carolina can not throw the ball downfield to save their lives. The Tigers’ front can load up the box and let their athletes like Harold Perkins tee off on the run game and get after the QB. South Carolina is not good, and will not cover.

#9 Oregon (2-0) @ Oregon State (2-0): ORE -16, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

Pick Oregon -16, O 50.5: The talk about Oregon not looking great so far is true, but it’s bled too far into the gambling market this week. They have flashed their ability several times, but have struggled to do it consistently enough to put teams away. That’s understandable in the first two weeks, but I’m expecting them to put things together enough to beat a depleted Oregon State team by more than two touchdowns.

Colorado (1-1) @ Colorado State (1-1): Colorado -7, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET CBS

Pick Colorado -7: We have been very clear in our stance that Colorado is a circus and not a good football team, but it looks like Colorado State is very bad. Sheduer and Hunter are going to light these guys up, I’m rolling with the Buffs.

OnlyRans (8-13)

UCF (2-0) @ TCU (2-0): UCF -2.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET FOX

Pick TCU +2.5: I’m back after putting together a Masterclass in suck that will be studied by scholars and laureates alike. The line opened at TCU -2 but swung 4+ points to UCF. I don’t get it and there don’t seem to be any injuries on the Horned Frogs end. UCF is one-dimensional yet dangerous in their rushing attack but Arkansas transfer QB KJ Jefferson has done less than a traffic cone. I’m trusting the home dog with the better QB here. 

Arizona State (2-0) @ Texas State (2-0): ASU -2, O/U 58.5 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Pick Arizona State -2, under 58.5: I’m going to fade Tate and back the P4 school with wins over Mississippi State and Wyoming over the trendy G5 pick who struggled to put away FCS Lamar 34-27 in Week 1. For rooting purposes, I hope I am wrong but no matter how flashy GJ Kinnie’s offense is, Arizona State has RB Cam Skattebo and the Bobcats do not. Furthermore, I’m going to double down with the under based purely on vibes. This is Texas State’s biggest football game in its 12-year history at the FBS level and San Marcos is going to be bumping. I think the lights will be too bright and Arizona State might run them off the field. Again, hope I’m wrong because I love new blood on the national stage but I’m ok with getting tomatoes thrown at me by Tate here. 

Washington State (2-0) v Washington (2-0) in Seattle (Lumen Field): WASH -4.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET Peacock

Pick Washington -4: Last week I correctly identified Iowa’s Week 1 offensive performance as a mirage which should win me an award of some sort. This week I’m pumping the brakes on Wazzu who are getting attention after throttling Texas Tech but context is needed. Texas Tech sucks (irrefutable) but they were with one of the best RBs in the Big 12 Tahj Brooks and the Red Raiders threw two interceptions, fumbled twice, and turned it over on downs four (!!) times. Wazzu should have beaten them by more tbh. Roll Huskies, sorry Cougs. 

West Virginia (1-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-0): WVU -2, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

Pick West Virginia -2: This one is pretty simple. West Virginia has one of the best backfields in the nation and Pittsburgh has one of the worst defensive fronts under Narduzzi. I’m going down with the ship on West Virginia and not getting hyped up over Pitt’s miracle last weekend. They were tight with Kent State through the 3rd quarter in Week 1 and Kent State just lost to St. Francis. Pitt sucks (forever and always). 

#24 Boston College (2-0) @ #6 Missouri (2-0): MIZ -16, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:45pm ET SECN

Pick Missouri -16: I think the public is still overreacting to Boston College’s Week 1 beatdown of FSU and has not seen Missouri yet this year. Mizzou is at home and has the vastly more talented team while BC is a spunky, tough team, they’re still Boston College and have a Year 1 head coach. 

#12 Utah (2-0) @ Utah State (1-1): UTAH -20, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 4:30pm CBSSN

Pick Under 44.5: Last week against Baylor, Utah QB Cam Rising injured his hand and did not return. In his 2nd half absence, the Utes did not score another point and still won. Kyle Whittingham has been mum if he will play or not and with a trip to Stillwater looming, even if he does he won’t do anything. This game will turn into a meat grinder. 

#13 Oklahoma State (2-0) @ Tulsa (1-1): OKST -19.5, O/U 62.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2

Central Michigan (1-1) @ Illinois (2-0): ILL -18.5, OU/ 49.5 - Saturday 12:00pm Peacock

Pick Tulsa +19.5 & Central Michigan +18.5: Hold your nose, my hand, and follow me into hell. Both Oklahoma State and Illinois are in look-ahead spots and coming off cathartic, draining matchups. Oklahoma State survived Arkansas (should’ve lost) and now has to travel to an in-state foe a week before a matchup against Utah. Illinois survived Kansas (should’ve lost) and travels to Lincoln to face Nebraska in a nationally televised matchup next week. 

Wake Forest & Georgia

Kentucky (1-1) @ #1 Georgia (2-0): It looks like we may get hit with a literal hurricane during the game which is why I’m staying away from locking in UGA -24.5 in my picks above. Kentucky looked dreadful last Saturday in their blowout loss to South Carolina at home, and they currently do not look like a team that can play on the same field as us right now. The offensive line is hot dog sh*t, and our former backup QB Brock Vandagriff has not yet shown any ability to make up for that deficiency when he doesn’t have time to throw. Defensively, the Wildcats are always going to be well coached under Mark Stoops but this unit does not have an abundance of talent and should not be causing our offense really any issues at all. This is the worst, most boring Kentucky team we have played in years, which is saying something because Kentucky is always boring.

Not much to update you all on the Dawgs - Rod Robinson will be out once again with turf toe, and it sounds like Mykel Williams will be held out with his leg injury as a precaution before the bye week that’s followed by our trip to Alabama. We seem to be getting healthier and we are obviously playing at a high level right now, so barring some insane weather, this should be another cakewalk for us. Are Georgia previews against lesser teams kinda boring now? As is often the case, I’m looking for us to execute and be efficient offensively, stay healthy, and I’m calling for another shutout. Get it done, Dawgs.

#5 Ole Miss (2-0) @ Wake Forest (1-1): MISS -23, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 6:30pm ET The CW

I hope the Deacs got the dismay of the Virginia game out of their systems quickly because as we said last week, life comes at ya fast. Lane Kiffin and #5 Ole Miss come to town and the only thing they know how to do besides tailgate is score and score fast. Lane Kiffin, QB Jaxson Dart, and the offense get a lot of publicity and much of it is deserved. However, I don’t think the average college football fan could name another player on the team which is a disgrace because they are loaded and not just on offense. WR Tre Harris is a dynamite wideout and leads the Rebels in receiving through 2 games. His counterpart is Juice Wells who transferred from South Carolina and has big game results (hello, Clemson) with next-level potential. RB Henry Parrish Jr. leads the Rebels in rushing and is a transfer from Miami. He’s backed up by Matt Jones (Southern Miss transfer) and Ulysses Bentley IV (SMU transfer). All five of those guys were coveted out of the transfer portal but wound up going to Ole Mi$$ even if it meant fewer touches. 

Defense is more of the same but getting less spotlight given their two opponents have been Furman which they beat 76-0 and MTSU which they beat 52-3. DL Walter Nolen is the former #1 overall recruit and transferred in from Texas A&M while Princely Umanmielen transferred in from Florida after being one of their best players last year. LB Chris Paul Jr. (no relation to CP3) transferred in from Arkansas and is leading the teams in tackles. The point of this exercise is to familiarize yourself with the Ole Miss team because they’re going to be around for a while. After this game, they play Georgia Southern, Kentucky, and South Carolina before they travel to LSU when their season truly begins. The second point in doing this was out of the goodness of my heart because Tate can now plagiarize most of what I said above for his Georgia-Ole Miss preview when they play ain Athens in November which could be a battle between top 3 teams. 

The Deacs on the other hand have some questions on defense. The best player, captain, and DL Jasheen Davis is questionable which is not ideal facing an offense of this caliber. Virginia threw all over them last week and…I really don’t have the mental fortitude to rehash that game. Hank Bachmeier has won the starting job from Michael Kern and has established a rapport with WR Donavon Greene. Hank is leading the ACC in passing yards through 2 games which is impressive given he’s really only played 6 quarters. I think the competency of this offense is undervalued but this might not be the best week to delve into it. Let’s get into some facts & figures to note instead.

Wake Forest is 2-0 all-time versus Ole Miss. The first win came in 2006 in Oxford and Ed Orgeron was the head coach for the Rebels. Wake attempted 5 passes, ran the ball 53 times, and still won 27-3. This game wasn’t on TV so I remember having to listen to it on the radio like a mid-century peon. The second came in 2008 when Sam Swank hit a game-winning field goal as time expired to win 30-28 and spoil RB Dexter McCluster’s electric day. 

Wake has not beaten a top 10 team since 1946 when they beat #4 Tennessee in Rocky Top. What is the second-longest streak in the P4 you ask? That would be UNC who beat #4 Miami in 2004. A difference of a mere 58 years or longer than my dad has been alive. Furthermore, Wake has never beaten a top 10 team at home. The law of averages/gravity/relativity says that’s damn near impossible considering the Deacs started playing football in 1888. However, Clawson is 4-0 against SEC opponents during his time at Wake and it’d be 5-0 if Texas A&M didn’t cop out of the Gator Bowl because of ‘covid’. I don’t make predictions or bets on the Deacs but the laws of COMMON SENSE say a program-defining upset should happen EVENTUALLY. Or we’ll continue being the answer to Aflac trivia questions. Go Deacs. 

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: You bet your ass I’m going to be in Winston for the Ole Miss game. Not even a hurricane would stop me…

Tate: It’s my birthday weekend and I did not exactly feel like spending it driving through a hurricane to go watch us obliterate Kentucky. We’re on the couch again to consume an incredible amount of football as I gear up for the Alabama road trip in a couple of weeks.

Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this endeavor.

Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers. If you’d like to update your subscription settings, please do so using the following link: 4th & Forever Subscription Settings

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.