Florida Hurricane Season: Week 1 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Labor Day is truly a religious holiday for us here at 4&F because now we can get out of (almost) any Saturday social event that doesn’t revolve around college football. Labor Day also marks the unofficial beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane season which is great if you’re Flo from Progressive or that CGI Gecko, but bad if you’re Billy Napier or live in a city below sea level like New Orleans. Below we’re breaking down Week 1, holding ourselves accountable with our betting picks, and reviewing the weekend that was for the Deacs & Dawgs so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Week 1 Recap

Games of the Week

#19 Miami went down to The Swamp and demolished a rudderless Florida team on Saturday, and it can’t quite be understated how different the vibes in Gainesville and Coral Gables are after both came in needing this win. The Hurricanes looked like clearly the best team in what appears to be a weak ACC, with transfer QB Cam Ward looking like he might be a legitimate Heisman contender and offensive and defensive lines that dominated an SEC team up front. Ward has a collection of solid receivers to distribute the ball to, and his ability as a runner adds an element to the Miami offense that a Mario Cristobal Canes team has not yet had. Miami looked better than they ever have under Mario, and there’s not another team in the league that looked anywhere near as good. We’ve got our eye on this team moving forward. On the Florida end of things, this was just an embarrassing performance in every facet of the game and it’s never looked so clear that the Gators may have to move on from Billy Napier very soon. The offense looked completely pathetic and the defense genuinely looked like they did not even want to be there. The body language of the UF sideline looked entirely hapless and the Gators showed zero fight to get back in the game once Miami’s lead extended to two and three possessions. Really, really bad all around.

#7 Notre Dame came out of the weekend with arguably the week’s biggest victory, taking down #20 Texas A&M on the road Saturday night. ND’s defense showed up time and time again, capitalizing on A&M’s mistakes and flying around the field to shut down a lot of what the Aggies were trying to establish on the ground. Irish QB Riley Leonard didn’t have a phenomenal game, but he came up big when his team needed him down the stretch, and looks like he might be the best ND we have seen in several years. The banged-up and thin Irish offensive line certainly didn’t dominate by any means, but they hung in there and competed with an incredibly talented A&M front seven, opening up some running lanes on a couple of massive runs that helped the Irish get the job done. On the A&M front, all we can really say is that Conner Weigman and the offense looked horrendous. We certainly had questions about A&M’s lack of playmakers and we definitely didn’t expect the Aggies’ offense to light the world on fire in this game, but my goodness was that bad. They have a lot to work on… to say the least.

Out in Las Vegas, #23 USC took down #13 LSU in what ended up being the best game of the weekend. This matchup certainly didn’t go the way we expected after the past couple of years of dreadful defenses by both teams, but both units looked massively improved on Sunday and made some big plays. Both teams replaced Heisman-winning quarterbacks with new guys - Garrett Nussmeier for LSU and Miller Moss for USC - and both looked very, very good. Both had over 300 yards passing and looked confident and poised in the pocket, distributing the ball to the elite playmakers that both squads have. These two teams were not only very evenly matched, but damn near resembled each other to a tee both in the offseason and frankly even during the game. The difference was, for the third straight time in Brian Kelly’s LSU season opener, that LSU could not stop shooting themselves in the foot with costly penalties and coverage busts in the secondary. Kelly was furious in his post-game press conference and for good reason - his teams have had a tendency to lose their composure and play very undisciplined football in key moments, and this was supposed to be the season that many of those things were cleaned up. We are going to have to have a conversation about Kelly’s ability to get the job done at LSU if any of that continues throughout this season, because the fanbase and boosters in the Bayou aren’t going to put up with anything short of being a national title contender very, very soon. On the USC side, you have to give a ton of credit to new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn for improving this Trojan defense to an unbelievable degree this offseason. We have made fun of USC head coach Lincoln Riley since this newsletter began for keeping his former DC Ryan Grubb around for approximately five years too long given that USC’s defense has been a completely unserious operation since Riley arrived, but he finally made the move and boy does it appear to have paid off. Absolutely massive win for USC who now, somewhat surprisingly because of the new-look defense, looks like it might be a legitimate contender in the Big Ten.

When drafting this edition on Monday afternoon, we slated the #10 Florida State - Boston College game under Games of the Week with the following: “Possibly BC/FSU if FSU looks like shit or loses.” As the old adage goes (we think): if it looks like shit and smells like shit, it’s shit and we can confirm that’s accurate about Tallahassee and this year’s Florida State football team. We’re mad about the fact we were lied to for a whole offseason and bought into it. FSU will have a chip on their shoulder after missing the playoff, Mike Norvell is the best in the country at supplementing superb high school recruiting with high-end transfers, DJU won’t suck at his 3rd school! Wrong, wrong, and wrong again. Florida State is a trainwreck and after signing a contract extension through 2029 that pays him roughly $8 million/year he’s going to have to answer some tough questions. Boston College attempted 16 passes all game and beat FSU by 15 points as 16-point underdogs! This is a case study on how quickly things change in college football: 8 months ago Norvell was on the shortlist for Alabama but last night he lost on his home field to Bill O’Brien who was coaching his first game at Boston College. To think the November 30th FSU/UF matchup could be between two interim coaches fighting to get their teams into the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl is why we’ll be laughing ourselves to sleep tonight. 

Things We Liked

The stars of the sport were on full display which is all we can ask for in a we can ask for during a weekend that saw countless blowout matchups. Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan had 304 receiving yards (!!!) and 4 TD’s in the Wildcats’ 61-39 win over New Mexico, catching pass after pass from star QB Noah Fifita. We’re telling you right now that McMillan is going to emerge as a potential top 10 pick in next year’s draft, and Fifita is arguably the most electric player to watch in the nation. Meanwhile, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (the best RB in the country, FYI) was going absolutely nuts as well, rushing for 267 yards and 6 TDs against Georgia Southern on Saturday. He absolutely dominated that game from start to finish and essentially won the weekend’s most entertaining game by himself. Earlier on Thursday, Sheduer Sanders linked up with Travis Hunter time and time again to take down North Dakota State in yet another exciting game. Hunter had 7 catches for 132 yards and 3 TDs, the exact type of start he needed to catapult his Heisman campaign. All of these guys are borderline must-watch TV this year and they don’t play for the traditional power schools, something that we’re seeing less and less of in this NIL + Transfer Portal era. We’re going to appreciate them while we have them.

Anchor Down Vandy! The ‘Dores pulled off the upset of the weekend (well, if it wasn’t for FSU if we even still count that), beating Virginia Tech 34-27 in overtime. VT was hyped up all offseason as a potential sleeper in the ACC, but Vandy came out and genuinely looked like the more athletic, better-coached team for most of the day. An absolutely huge win for Clark Lea and his squad that really needs to show improvement in this year 4, and as we told you all offseason, Diego Pavia is the real deal at QB for Vandy and will keep that team in games that you wouldn’t necessarily expect them to be in. We loved every second of this game and are legally obligated to remind you Pavia was the QB who got in trouble for pissing on the midfield logo at New Mexico’s stadium while a QB at New Mexico State. Long live Diego. 

AON founder and Northwestern’s Ryan Field namesake, Patrick G. Ryan, should ask for his $800 million back because no amount of luxury suites or LED boards will beat how cool the temporary NW stadium on Lake Michigan is. Keep it forever and make every game in November a home game.

Things We Didn’t Like

UNC QB Max Johnson broke his leg in the 4th quarter against Minnesota and will miss the rest of the year. His college career is likely over after he finally won a QB competition and came into the year healthy. The cynic UNC fans out there don’t think this is that big of a loss as now the reins are handed to RS-SO and three-star recruit Conner Harrell who was Alabama’s Gatorade POY in 2021. He’s inexperienced but a much more dynamic runner than Johnson. Sucks for Max but UNC fans probably aren’t too upset. 

We had to listen to Michigan and South Carolina sing the praises of how good their QBs would be this season and there was no need for them to dip into the transfer portal to find some help. After one game it looks like they should’ve caved to the national media pressure. Michigan’s presumed starter Alex Orji went 1/2 for 3 yards and a touchdown but is most dangerous on the ground. His replacement (if you can even call him that) Davis Warren was a meager 15/25 for 118 yards. Michigan is going to win 8+ games just on defense and their rushing attack alone but they’d be a playoff shoo-in if they had competent QB play. South Carolina sold out for ‘heralded’ freshman LaNorris Sellers who went 10/23 for 113 yards but did enough on the ground to stave off the upset over Old Dominion. Congrats I guess. 

Texas Tech needed overtime and a 2-point conversion stop to beat Abilene Christian 52-51 on Saturday night in Lubbock. Why in the hell was 5-star freshman WR Micah Hudson not playing? He wouldn’t be able to fix the fact that TTU let some guy named Maverick McIvor from a made-up college throw for 506 yards against them but want to guess what this ACU probably doesn’t have? A corner who can cover a D1 WR much less a 5-star talent. 

Iowa possibly having a competent offense is not an amusing development following Week 1. After an offensive explosion for 40 points against Illinois State, it’s looking like Iowa and new OC Tim Lester figured out what a forward pass is. Good for Iowa, bad for college football. Who is supposed to be our new punching bag for offensive ineptitude? Florida State? Wisconsin? The service academies? Alright, definitely not the last one. Change and progression aren’t always a good thing, kid. 

Texas A&M… What the hell, man? The Aggies’ talent on defense and a healthy Conner Weigman had me (Tate) thinking this could be a sneaky playoff hopeful this year given how light their schedule is by SEC standards. But Weigman was horrific when all he really had to be was below average to get this win. We can’t figure out how he looked this bad given we’ve seen him really flash in years past, but goodness gracious, we can’t possibly believe this team might rebound in a big way until we see Weigman look way better than he did on Saturday. That was dreadful.

Let’s Overreact

In what’s being dubbed the Year of the Freshman Wide Receiver, we’ve been force-fed spring and fall camp highlight tapes of Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, Auburn’s Cam Coleman, and Texas Tech’s Micah Hudson (see above on Hudson) like Bruce Bogtrotter in Matilda. Not to discredit Coleman and Smith who both lived up to their 5-star billing in Week 1, but Rand’s here to remind you not to forget about the other freshman phenom in Alabama’s 17-year-old Ryan Williams. In their 63-0 win over Western Kentucky, he had 2 receptions for 139 and 2 TDs. I think people are sleeping on Williams and Alabama a little too much even with Saban running around the GameDay set. By season’s end, Coleman might not even be the best freshman WR on his team as that honor might go to 4-star Perry Thompson who has 2 receptions for 82 yards and a TD against Alabama A&M. Disclaimer: I’m getting tired of writing about how good Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith is. It’s not a reach to say he will be in the same echelon of college receivers as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald (top 3 picks) when he’s draft-eligible. 

The big Week 1 tests are over for Notre Dame and UNC and we’re here to tell you they can be wiped from your consciousness for the next three weeks. Notre Dame plays NIU, @ Purdue, and Miami (OH) before facing Louisville at home on 9/28. Maybe Purdue and QB Hudson Card provide a stiffer-than-expected test but we’re not going to read too much into their 49-0 drubbing of Indiana State. UNC survived Minnesota thanks to the Gopher's shitty kicker and now gets Charlotte, NC Central, and James Madison in Chapel Hill before heading to Durham. Don’t go full amnesia but rather store these teams in your subconscious because both programs certainly aren’t immune to laying eggs. However, we’re expecting both to be 4-0 heading into the final week of September. 

As I, Rand, was watching the Clemson-UGA game on Saturday I was thinking how funny it would be if Clemson had to face an SEC conference slate with that Hindenburg of an offense. This could be said about almost every conference realignment move in the past 5 years and I know there’s a money discrepancy wider than Michael Strahan’s teeth, but Clemson’s best path to the playoff is in the ACC. Georgia faces Texas, Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama in the next few weeks while Clemson faces NC State and Florida State with their third toughest test either being App State at home or at Wake Forest. The lawyers will get their billable hours and Clemson will bolt eventually, but if Clemson thinks this is bad now, wait until they’re going 6-6 with competent QB play. 

It was only one game of course, but we have major concerns that UCLA might be very very bad after their 16-13 win over Hawaii. The offense looked dreadful with QB Ethan Garbers throwing two picks and the running game only gaining 71 yards on 20 attempts. Chip Kelly brought some life to this offense last year but several of his players are gone, as are the Bruins’ best defensive players from last year including DL Laiatu Latu who went in the first round. It was always going to be tough sledding for this squad as they entered the Big Ten, but an additional out-of-conference game against LSU is making it look like this might be an absolutely brutal year 1 for head coach DeShaun Foster. Yeesh.

Pump the Brakes

A lot of noise going to be made on #3 Oregon playing with their food against Idaho and winning 24-14. With Oregon specifically, we are used to the shellackings they put on inferior opponents like the 81-7 number they hung on Portland State in Week 1 last year. Idaho converted on some trick plays and got some key 4th down stops including one in Oregon territory thanks to the patented Lanning aggressiveness. Oregon also had to play a walk-on at center due to injury who was replacing last year’s Rimington Award winner. QB Dillon Gabriel and WR Tez Johnson both played well and the box score tells a very different story than the final score does, so we’re not worried about Oregon’s Week 1 clunker. Now if this continues next week when Boise comes to Autzen we’ll have a different conversation.

ACC darkhorse pick SMU looked horrid against Nevada in Week 0 and was lucky to get out of Reno with a win. Turns out Nevada might be decent which is something we haven’t been able to say since 2021. Former Texas DC and new head coach Jeff Choate brought RB Savion Red with him and he’s a hoss. His 135 yards led Nevada to a 28-26 upset over Troy who came into the game as touchdown favorites and were predicted to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt West. 

Rand’s early Week 2 prediction is that Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola and Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders are going to throw for a billion yards next week and set the scoreboard on fire in Boulder. As a result, there’s going to be a lot of media coverage around Nebraska's freshman phenom Dylan Raiola, and how good he is. I do think he’s good but let’s not overreact to someone torching the UTEP and Colorado defenses. For reference, Colorado just let NDSU QB Cam Miller rack up 277 yards on 18/22 passing. That being said the O/U for next week’s tilt could be 90.5 and I’ll still be taking the over.

Similar to Oregon and as much as it pains Rand to say, I’m not wavering on NC State’s long-term outlook even though they messed around with Western Carolina for three quarters. WR KC Concepcion is a top-three WR in the conference and RB Jordan Waters, formerly of Duke, is still good. The Wolfpack have to play Tennessee in Charlotte next week so I don’t blame them for taking the “We’re not putting anything on tape” approach to this game. That being said, my prediction after next week is State fans won’t want to watch the UT tape after Nico hangs 40+ on their remade defense. 

As brutal of a loss as it was for LSU, we’re pumping the breaks on a full-on freakout as we look ahead to the rest of their season. QB Garrett Nussmeier looked really good for a lot of that game as did several of his receivers, and the Tigers’ offensive line is going to be one of the best in the country this year. Even though LSU’s DBs are somewhere between “aggressively average” and “hot garbage”, the front seven looks improved and certainly appears to play with more effort than they have over the past few seasons. This was an incredibly frustrating loss for several reasons, but we certainly don’t think the bottom is going to be falling out here.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 5-3 - Season Record: 6-6

L - TAMU -3: lost to Notre Dame 23-13

L - West Virginia +8.5: lost to Penn State 34-12

L - Arkansas Pine Bluff +48.5: Arkansas won 70-0

W - Oklahoma State -9.5: beat South Dakota State 44-20

W - Miami -2.5: beat Florida 41-17

W - Stanford +9.5: lost to TCU 34-27

W - NDSU @ Colorado U 60.5: Colorado won 31-26

W - USC +4.5: beat LSU 27-20

I followed up my abysmal 1-3 Week 0 record with a profitable Week 1 performance to get back to .500 on the year. I don’t feel too bad about missing TAMU & WVU because those two games were irrationally hard to get a read on. I do feel bad for WVU though. First game in Morgantown against rival Penn State in 30 years and they get screwed right before half on a missed offensive pass interference call which leads to a TD for the Nittany Lions and saps the energy out of the stadium. Then the skies open up and the two teams sit in the locker room for hours while fans are forced to evacuate. When the 2nd half finally began Penn State picked up where they left off and laid the hammer down for a big victory. Some of you might’ve read my Arkansas Pine Bluff pick from last week and thought “Maybe Rand knows something about the Golden Lions that we don’t”. WRONG. The Razorbacks covered the 7 TD spread at halftime and outgained APB by 550 yards. If I ever bet on Arkansas Pine Bluff and/or an FCS team to cover a 49-point spread please put out an APB for my location and wellness. 

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 4-5 - Season Record: 5-6

L - USC vs LSU O 64.5: USC won 27-20

W - UNC @ Minnesota U 51.5: UNC won 19-17

L -TAMU -3: lost to Notre Dame 23-13

L - UNLV @ Houston O 51.5: UNLV won 27-7

W/W - Akron +48.5, U 58.5: OSU won 52-6

L - Florida +2.5: Miami won 41-17

W/L - UGA -13.5, O 48.5: UGA won 34-3

Not the best showing but certainly not the worst. I’m frustrated with myself because, in last week’s edition when speaking about the changes to the clock operations we saw in Week 0, I noted that betting the under might be the play very often in Week 1. So naturally I ended up taking three separate overs that all lost, while the two unders I bet on actually won. Why the hell did I do that? Oh well. I’ll put my hand up on the Florida pick - just an absolutely embarrassing performance by the Gators as we discussed above, while Miami impressed me more than I expected. Just a bad pick without having seen the two teams play yet. The ND/TAMU game looked a lot like I expected it to look and came down to the wire, but my goodness did I not expect Conner Weigman to be that bad. We’ve seen him be good before, what the hell happened? Just marginally competent QB play probably gets that game done for the Aggies but he was just dreadful. The wins were nice in the UNC and UGA games, with a double-victory coming in the Ohio State game. I’m content missing on the UGA/Clemson over given it was the Dawgs absolutely dominating on defense that kept it under. I’m confident I’ll improve from here now that we’ve seen everybody play a game.

Wake Forest & Georgia

(1-0) Georgia 34 - (0-1) Clemson 3: Well that sure was an ass-whooping, wasn’t it? Things started a little slow and conservatively on offense, as it seemed like Clemson came out playing a little more zone than Mike Bobo and the staff had scripted for - not to mention that Clemson’s defense has several future NFL players on it to begin with. But the offense started hitting some explosive plays in the second quarter, and after about six plays of Clemson playing offense, it was abundantly clear that it’d probably only take 13-17 Dawgs points to get the job done anyway. The Dawgs’ defense absolutely dominated throughout and already looks like it’s going to be the best defense in the country yet again, all while missing the expected-starting STAR Joenel Aguero due to injury along with a handful of defensive linemen who didn’t play because they were banged up. Mykel Williams also went down and may miss the next couple of games which is not exactly ideal, but it sounds like he’d be back for the Alabama game at the latest which is probably the next time his absence would actually matter. Malaki Starks slid down from safety to replace Aguero at STAR, and holy hell was he phenomenal. He was so good that I’m now wondering if he should just play there permanently because offenses have to account and/or adjust for him on every single play because he can run with anybody and make plays like this. Just dominant stuff from the Dawgs defense.

Carson Beck was excellent, accurate as ever, and even showed his underrated pocket presence and mobility on a couple of scrambles that kept drives alive. The offensive line was dominant after the first couple of possessions and the receivers all looked great, highlighted by fellow transfers Colbie Young and London Humphries who both had touchdowns (ahem, Clemson). But the star of the show was, of course, Nate Frazier, the #1 RB in the country in this past year’s recruiting class who looked a whooooole lot like a mix of Sony Michel and D’Andre Swift out there. The kid filled in for the suspended Etienne and the hurt Rod Robinson and the run game just didn’t miss a beat - Frazier had 107 yards from scrimmage and a TD. Just another new piece to this offense that’s going to be a stud for us going forward.

All around, about as good as you can ask for in a Game 1 against a good team. We have an easy week to get a bit healthier and clean up some things before we head to Kentucky, and there’s nothing in this world quite like sending Orange People home very sad. Them Dawgs is absolute Hell once again.

(1-0) Wake Forest 45 - (0-1) NC A&T 13: NEVER A DOUBT! Unless you’re one of my friends who texted me “are we really this bad” around the time NC A&T was up 10-7 in the second quarter. A missed facemask call on A&T and a few dropped passes by Wake WRs made the first-half score look worse than it was. Once Taylor Morin returned a punt 73 yards early in the 3rd quarter to make it 24-10 the game was essentially over. 

The Good: Me when I told you to buy stock in the following players and now I get to gloat: WR Horatio Fields (3 rec, 33 yards, 1 TD), WR Donavon Green (3 rec, 72 yards, 1 TD), WR Deuce Alexander (5 rec, 69 yards, 1 TD), and RB Demond Claiborne (17 car, 135 yards, 1 TD) to name a few. Am I cognizant that I am gloating about stats versus NC A&T? Yes, but as an eternal pessimist I’m taking my moment in the sun. 

The Bad: giving up 185 rushing yards and not forcing any turnovers. We knew the defense would have some question marks but most of those were in the secondary and I wouldn’t classify this game as a stress test for that unit. Transfer LB Branson Combs (Southern Illinois) looked as good as advertised and LB Dylan Hazen is picking up where he left off last year. DLs Kevin Pointer & Jasheen Davis racked up 2 sacks and 3.5 TFLs combined and their combined production will need to continue for Wake to take pressure off the secondary. 

The QBs: If you look at the stat lines and snap count between Michael Kern and Hank Bachmeier you’d likely and potentially correctly conclude that Bachmeier has won the starting job. Kern started the first three drives (14 snaps) of the game and finished 5/8 for 57 yards. Bachmeier (54 snaps) finished the 1st half and played 95% of the second half with an 18/28 for 263 yards and 3 TDs. Even given that discrepancy, I wouldn’t declare this QB battle over for a variety of reasons. First, when Wake was in their 2Q rock fight with the Aggies, Kern was the one who was leading the offense more efficiently. Most of Bachmeier’s damage was done in the 2nd half and their 1st half stats were about even. Second, Kern started the game which is telling. Clawson rightly rode the hot hand in the 2nd half but it was clear Wake would do whatever it wanted on both sides of the ball by then. Lastly, we play Virginia next week. Yes, it’s an ACC game and not the time to experiment with QBs but I’d be surprised if Clawson names a starter for next week’s game and plays both again. He’s going to make me look like an idiot and name Bachmeier the starter by the time you read this Tuesday but again, I gloated above for a reason. 

Texts of the Week

“I also think Bitchigan tries to prove a point today so I like them to cover.” - Ohio State fan Sam C. who made a curious bet and lost

“[Lee Corso] is becoming the Sister Jean of college football.” - Jack R.

“Billy Napier just needs a few more years to get this program back in shape.” - Adam D

“Kirby lost Ladd and Brock and replaced them with more exciting whites.” - Starch

Lastly, the official new 4&F meme provided by our good friend Ben D:

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.