Let's Praise Some Coaches That Didn't Even Make Bowl Games

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. In our 50th (!!) edition we’re giving you the details on how to join our March Madness Bracket Pool, explain why we’re over Ted Cruz and the American judicial system, and discuss why Rand might be forced to join The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

4&F March Madness Bracket Pool

Selection Sunday is…you guessed it…this Sunday. Of course, we are going to do a 4th & Forever bracket pool. You can find the link here, looking up 4th & Forever on ESPN’s Tournament Challenge, or below. The password is ‘Newsletter’. Sam Weinbach won $240 in the Bowl Pick ‘Em which is usually reserved for college football freaks who will actually watch the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Point is: we’re expecting a pretty hefty pot for this one. Feel free to invite your friends and family as well.

Rules: $10/bracket with unlimited entries. Venmo is preferred but we can also accept Cash App, Zelle, carrier pigeon, etc. If you can figure out a way to get us $10, we can figure out a way to get it back to you when you win it all. Payout is winner takes all with second place getting their money back. We’ll send you a reminder email on Monday morning with the details and links again.

Link: Here

Password: Newsletter

Payment: $10/bracket, unlimited entries

Rand’s Venmo: @Rand-Fisher

Tate’s Venmo: @Tate-Smillie

Let’s Get Back to Football, Shall We?

College football has become a 24/7, 365 news cycle akin to the NFL, politics, or what conspiracy theory Aaron Rodgers currently touts. We won’t give him the satisfaction of answering that, but you can Google it if you’re curious. Gone are the doldrums in the CFB offseason where coaches could take vacations, administrators could focus on the other 20+ sports their institution sponsors, and players could hit the weight room and/or the library if their University believes in that sort of thing. It’s been 69 days since Michigan walked off the field in Houston and on a seemingly daily basis college football has been consumed with coaching changes, NIL lawsuits, NCAA hearings, TV deals, Playoff changes, etc. We’re tired of reading and writing about what some judge in Tennessee ruled because UT boosters are mad at the NCAA for enforcing rules they agreed to. Do you really want to read our analysis of what Nick Saban told Ted Cruz at his Future of College Athletics roundtable* on Tuesday? Didn’t think so.

*Ted Cruz can’t call a formal congressional hearing because he’s in the Senate minority so he’s handcuffed into calling souped-up photo ops 

Unless there’s some earth-shattering news like FSU leaving the ACC or the future playoff format is finally finalized (breaking news: that’s supposed to happen today or tomorrow) we’ll cover it. After all, spring football is about to start in earnest and there’s a transfer portal window behind that. Until then we’re going pose a question for both of us to answer and maybe yell at one another why our opinions are stupid and invalid. Let us know what you think and if you have suggestions or questions our inbox is open.

Today’s Question: What first-year head coach made you the most optimistic about their future at their current program?

Rand: We’ve made the joke before that we’re legally obligated to write about Taylor Swift & Deion Sanders so I want to assure everyone that I am safe, mentally sound (most of the time), and not writing under duress, but I have to write about Deion. Before Prime got to Boulder, the Buffs had been in the CFB dungeon, going to two bowl games in 2006. Their administration didn’t seem to care about football and it showed in their coaching hires. Dan Hawkins, Jon Embree, Mike MacIntyre, Mel Tucker, Karl Dorrell. They got lucky with Mel Tucker who only lasted one season before darting to Michigan State who paid a king's ransom to get him. Even then, Tucker only went 5-7 in his lone year. Props to Colorado AD Rick George who watched 10 years of shit and decided he’s probably going to get fired if he makes the safe hire again.

Enter Deion, his two sons, Louis Vitton luggage, the attendee list of Met Gala, every television camera on the western seaboard, and millions of eyeballs watching this downtrodden program resuscitate themselves in real, nay, prime time. I won’t rehash last year because we all know the story, but once again, I am interested to see how next year plays out. QB Shedeur Sanders will be on every Heisman list along with WR/DB Travis Hunter before they depart for the NFL. Rising sophomore CB Cormani McClain was their 2023 5* flip of the year from Miami who will be joined by 2024’s flip of the year in 5* OL Jordan Seaton. Colorado loaded up in the portal on OLs and DLs and much needed help on the outside with three WR transfers from Power 5 schools, namely Will Shepard of Vanderbilt. If you watched a single offensive snap of Colorado this past year you know their OL was softer than puppy shit in the rain (props to Houston basketball head coach Kelvin Sampson for that analogy). 

As they crawl back to the Big 12 after leaving the conference in 2010, they will be a trendy pick to win the whole league which is currently devoid of a superpower. A quick peek at their 2024 schedule yields a lot of formidable opponents in Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona, and both Kansas schools, but all eyes will be on them in the first two weeks of the year when they host FCS power North Dakota State before going to Nebraska (more on them in a bit). Rick George is a genius or extremely lucky for hiring Deion but what the hell are you doing scheduling NDSU? There is no benefit to playing them and they’ve beaten Power 5 opponents before. Call up Weber State, ask them if you can whip their ass and you’ll pay them $2 mil for the inconvenience. 

Looking further ahead, I don’t think Deion is long for CU especially if they have let’s say an 8-4 or 9-3 year next year. Shedeur and Travis Hunter will be at the NFL Combine a year from now and it’s in every coach's best interest to strike while the iron is hot. My hunch is his ultimate goal is to get back to the South, specifically Texas where he’s from. He was the runner-up for the TCU job before it went to Sonny Dykes in 2022 and had interviewed at other places before accepting Colorado. His alma mater Florida State locked in Mike Norvell so he’s not going anywhere, neither is Steve Sarkisian at Texas who can both thank Alabama’s opening for their massive new pay raises. Keep an eye on this CU team next year because if they act the part and make a run while, say, Florida & Auburn don’t, we could see Deion in the SEC come Christmas. Actually, screw it, everyone needs to wish for Mario Cristobal to have another miserable year at Miami…now imagine that.

Tate: Shoutout to Rand for being a true businessman and talking about Deion for 4th & Forever algorithm purposes. Maybe next we’ll talk about #TaylorSwift and #TravisKelce. I think there are certainly things to like about Deion at Colorado, but as Rand mentioned, I don’t see him actually being at Colorado for very long. He either keeps losing a bunch of games and gets fired, or he starts winning big games and moves back below the Mason-Dixon Line. #FireDeion #DeionToAuburn.

Call me crazy for believing in Nebraska in the year two-thousand-and-twenty-four, but I’m going to go with Matt Rhule and his gang of mighty Cornhuskers. Nebraska spent the Scott Frost era (2018-2022) as one of the softest, sloppiest, dumbest teams in America. If the defense was halfway decent in a given year, the offense was sure to be dogs*t. If the offense was capable of scoring points, the defense would be getting outscored left and right. The special teams were always a complete and utter joke.

So in stepped Rhule, taking over a soft program that was in shambles after the hiring of its prodigal son failed so miserably. At the time of his hiring, Rhule was well known for his ability to turn programs around in short order. When he took over at Temple a decade ago, he took a 2-10 team in his first year to 6-6 and a bowl game in his second, and then won 10 games in consecutive years in (2015 and 2016). He then got the job at Baylor, a program in the middle of a (well deserved) NCAA and literal federal investigation nightmare, with players leaving the program in droves and recruits opting to go literally anywhere else. Rhule went 1-11 in his first year, but again saw a second-year jump to a bowl game, and then went 11-1 in the regular season in year 3 before taking the Carolina Panthers job.

Nebraska’s 5-7 2023 season may be unremarkable on paper, but the team finally looked tough, physical, and played smart. Its defense was very strong and its special teams looked competent for the first time since Jake Fromm was a true freshman. The offense was absolutely dreadful due to horrid QB play, sure, but Rhule landed the #1 QB in the country - Dylan “Fat Tubster” Raiola - in his first full recruiting class. The good defense returns a ton of talent and the offense is going to improve almost by default. I’m looking for yet another big time improvement from a year-two Matt Rhule team.

Rand’s Take on Tate: The fact that we’re complementing Nebraska for going 5-7 shows you everything you need to know about where the program was under Frost. Ironically, I just wrote about a program that went 4-8 so you have me beat there. All eyes will be on ‘Fat Tubster’ to see if he’s the real deal. I do agree that Rhule is an upgrade over Frost and every other now-former Nebraska coach after Bo Pelini, but there’s a long way to go. First, just yesterday, Nebraska’s AD Trev Alberts left for the Texas A&M gig and we all know what happens when new ADs enter the fray and want to hire their own guy. My guess is Rhule had a 4-5 year leash under Alberts and that’s been cut to 2-3 years. Second, they’re in the Big 10 which just got a whole lot tougher. Nebraska has shown no proof of concept for the past 20 years and that was even when they were in the much easier & now defunct Big 10 West. They’ve got a pretty easy schedule but trips to Ohio State, USC, and Iowa are likely losses. Toss up games against Colorado, UCLA, and Wisconsin means they need to hold serve against the likes of Purdue, Rutgers, and Illinois to make a bowl which is something they haven’t done since 2016.

Honorable Mentions: We’ve talked about it before, but considering that Northwestern’s 2023 win total was set at 3.5 before its longtime, legendary head coach was fired in the middle of the summer due to a hazing scandal, interim (and now full-time) head coach David Braun deserves a mention here. The Wildcats won 8 games (!!) and finished second in the Big Ten West (!!!). Is Northwestern ever going to compete with the OSUs, Michigans, Oregons, and Penn States of the conference? Of course not. But there is a wide middle-of-the-pack in the current Big Ten, that a well-run Northwestern program can take advantage of under the right coach. So far, Braun looks like he might be that guy.

Dishonorable Mention: Cincinnati leveraged their playoff appearance into a Big 12 invite which is admirable but they’re a not-so-quiet CFB head coach incubator given the former coaches who have left for bigger opportunities, namely Mark Dantonio, Brian Kelly, Butch Jones (lol) and Luke Fickell. So what in the hell are they doing hiring Louisville’s Scott Satterfield - who was about to get canned - to lead them into the Big 12? Early ROI data is not great as they went 3-9 last year with a loss to Miami (OH) which was the start of a 7-game losing skid. The Big 12 isn’t getting any easier next year with the Pac-12 boys coming in. 

Where in the World is Rand?

By the time you read this, I’ll be in New York City for the weekend probably sweating out the Wake-Pitt ACC Tournament game (2:30pm for those who want to play hooky from work). Monday I’m catching a flight to Seattle for work only to catch a flight to Salt Lake City on Tuesday, also for work, and TBD if/when I come home. I’m currently slated for a Wednesday afternoon flight back to Atlanta but in the very off chance Wake makes the tourney and the even slimmer chance they get put in the Salt Lake City Regional…well you can imagine what happens from there, but a man can dream.

Hope you have a great day and we will talk to you again soon.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.