Damn The Torpedoes! Week 0 Preview

In partnership with

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Our long national nightmare is officially over - it’s finally game week! Yes, it may be the worst Week 0 slate in recent memory and we’re still not sure why this sport is insistent on kicking its season off in Dublin, Ireland every season, but dammit college football is back and we couldn’t be more excited. Today we take a look at the four Week 0 matchups on the docket, but don’t get too bored because our long-awaited Georgia and Wake Forest season previews will follow them below. Talking season is officially over (well, unless you write a college football newsletter I suppose) and it’s time to kick off. Enjoy!

The Only Four Week 0 Games to Watch

#10 Florida State vs Georgia Tech: FSU -10.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Florida State enters 2024 replacing basically all of their best players from last year’s “undefeated” team that was snubbed from the CFP, and while the ‘Noles will certainly still be the more talented team in this game, this is an interesting matchup. DJU transfers in to take over at QB for FSU and the offseason narrative has been that he doesn’t need to do too much - just take care of the ball and be decent - the reports out of FSU’s fall camp have been that the wide receiving unit has not been very impressive. Outwardly saying that your QB is going to be just a game manager with a group of receivers that aren’t world beaters doesn’t exactly lead us to believe this is going to be one of the country’s best offenses, and with so many new faces, this could be tricky in the Seminoles’ first game. The defense could be really good, though, led by UGA pass rushing transfer Marvin Jones Jr. who has the change to be a first round pick. Georgia Tech has had the most intriguing offseason in the program’s recent memory, and after closing the 2023 season in relatively strong fashion, the expectations are pretty high this year. Haynes King returns at QB, and we think he might be one of the country’s most underrated players. Tech’s offense was pretty damn good down the stretch last year when King really found his footing as a runner, and while the defense might still not be very good, Tech’s offense might make them a dangerous team to play in the ACC this year. Game One can often be a great equalizer of talent as teams are often at different levels of “ready”, especially offensively, and we have this game circled as one of those instances. We’re expecting a close game here and would not at all be surprised if Tech pulled off the upset, even though we both expect FSU to eventually win the ACC this year.

Montana State @ New Mexico: Montana State -11.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FS1

I’m sorry… is FCS Montana State actually an 11.5-point favorite on the road against an FBS team? That appears to be the case despite New Mexico hiring Bronco Mendenhall this offseason which we here at 4th & Forever believe to be one of the best hires of the offseason. Regardless, New Mexico is thought of as one of the worst teams in the FBS while Montana State is consistently competing for FCS titles and returns a ton of production off of last year’s squad. We’re fully aware that this preview is likely not getting you overly excited about this matchup, but it’s an FCS team with a great chance to beat an FBS team which is always fun. Besides, what the hell else is going to be on your TV in the background at 4:00pm on Saturday?

SMU @ Nevada: SMU -24.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET CBSSN

We’ve spared no expense in previewing SMU this offseason given the level of intrigue in a moderately open ACC race this year and excitement from fans & boosters. We wrote about their realignment expectations here and previewed them in our ACC Preview. Therefore, let’s trigger Clay Travis and talk about Colin Kaepernick & Nevada. Since former head coach Chris Ault retired in 2012 after leading Nevada to record-breaking success with Kaepernick and the finicky Pistol Offense, Nevada has been wandering the desert for the last decade+. Brian Polian (holy shit how many Polian’s are there in football) and Jay Norvell found mild success but left to be the special teams coordinator at Notre Dame and head coach of Colorado State, respectively, and that should tell you all you need to know about the perception of Nevada football right now. The bottom fell out with consecutive 2-10 seasons under Ken Wilson before they canned him. Enter Jeff Choate, the former Montana State coach & Texas DC who will be test rabbit #4 to try and inject life into this program. Why did I lay out all of this information? To tell you they’re going to suck this year. Check back in 2025 for a pulse on the Wolfpack. 

Delaware State @ Hawaii: Hawaii -39.5, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 11:59pm ET Spectrum PPV

This is another game between an FCS team and a pretty bad FBS team, but this time the FCS team is, well, not a national championship contender considering they’re expected to lose by roughly 40 points. Hawaii is improving under Timmy Chang who took over an absolutely horrible situation two years ago, but considering this game is at midnight on Spectrum’s Pay-Per-View service, we won’t bore you by breaking this game down because you won’t be watching it anyway. The most interesting thing about this game is that it might not even get played because Delaware State literally missed their flight to Honolulu. An apparent “bus snafu” to the airport on Monday now has Delaware State scrambling, attempting to divide their team into groups to purchase available seats on various commercial flights. If they are able to make it in time, this game might be worth watching just to see what a team that’s already expected to lose by 40 looks like following an 11+ hour flight, playing at midnight with no chance to adapt to the time change. This could be a hilarious game of football if it happens, so safe travels to the Hornets because we’d love to see how drunk this game could get.

Tate’s Great Picks

#10 Florida State vs Georgia Tech: FSU -10.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Pick - Georgia Tech +10.5: The vibes haven’t been this high on North Avenue, both on the recruiting trail and on the practice field, in well over a decade. QB Haynes King is one of the league’s best at the position, and in my opinion probably the better QB in this game. Tech RB Jamal Haynes is a stud too, and I’m starting to think this Yellow Jackets team is a bit of a sleeper in what might be a very mediocre ACC this year. The long travel and weird environment of the Ireland crowd may be a bit of an equalizer in a first game against an FSU team that is replacing a ton of talent, and I am extremely doubtful that DJ Uiagalelei and a very questionable receiving corp are clicking on all cylinders in Week 0. I’m putting the Seminoles on major upset alert here - even if they pull out a victory, I think the Jackets keep it close.

SMU @ Nevada: SMU -24.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET CBSSN

Pick - SMU -24.5: It cannot be understated how little Nevada seems to care about football as a university right now, and I think that will be reflected as soon as the Wolfpack step on the field against SMU on Saturday night. SMU returns a lot of talent off of a solid 2023 team, including their very good QB Preston Stone. Their receivers are much better athletes than anything Nevada’s defensive backfield can run out there, and SMU has one of the county’s better coaches in Rhett Lashlee. SMU is an ACC title contender for a reason, while Nevada is, uhh, not. I think SMU comes out guns a blazin' in this one and overwhelms Nevada from the jump. Four-TD Mustang victory incoming.

Tennessee over 8.5 wins: One more win total for y’all before the season kicks off that I’m very confident in. I’ve been analyzing each game of the SEC schedule over the past couple of weeks and through every different scenario I’ve run, there’s been something I’ve found extremely consistent: Tennessee winning 9 or 10 games. The schedule is very light by new SEC standards, the defensive line has a chance to be one of the country’s best, and QB Nico Iamalaeva has the potential to be really good. I’d be very surprised if Tennessee won 8 or less games this year.

OnlyRans

#10 Florida State vs Georgia Tech: FSU -10.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Picks - Georgia Tech +10.5 & Game Total Over 55.5: I’m tempted to go with FSU here because this pick is trendy and the line’s moving down, but I can’t come up with reasons why I should ride FSU other than they’re more talented. FSU QB DJU is an enigma while Tech’s Haynes King is a known quantity. Their offense is veteran-laden and while the defense will come along during the season, they should score enough points to keep it close or backdoor cover this thing. Those are the football reasons. As for betting stats, Tech coach Brent Key is 7-3 as an away dog (this game is a neutral site but whatever), Tech’s covered 8 of the last 9 times against the Noles, and last year they had 4 underdog outright wins with two of them being double-digit dawgs. Did I just convince myself into a GT ML?

SMU @ Nevada: SMU -24.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET CBSSN

Pick - SMU -24.5: Shit, following Tate again which is a horrible idea if you remember last year’s results but this is cake. SMU will want to make noise entering the ACC and get it clicking before FSU visits Dallas at the end of September. 

Montana State @ New Mexico: Montana State -11.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FS1

Pick - Montana State -11.5: I’m all in on FCS power Montana State getting their flowers and deserved win over FBS New Mexico which has a new coach and is returning a total of 3 offensive starters from a 4-8 team. They aren’t even the best team in the state of New Mexico which is a low bar to clear.

Wake Forest & Georgia Previews

Wake Forest: When the unwritten goal of the season is ‘competency’ you know the previous year was a nightmare. I’d like to remind the narrowed and short-minded Wake fans that yes, last year was awful, but A) we all know how much worse it can get, and B) even with a revolving door that included a converted safety at QB we went 4-8 and had three losses by less than a TD…and one of those was at Clemson. Competency should be a given so let’s strive for more, shall we? After all, it’s the hope that kills ya.

Starting off hot on the hope-meter with our QB who is…yet to be determined. As of writing a decision has not yet been made but Clawson said earlier this week he will decide by EOW; the same timeline I give my bosses on getting stuff done which is usually an interpretive deadline. Contestant #1 is Hank Bachmeier. 25-year-old transfer QB with previous stops at Boise State (did well) and more recently Lousiana Tech (not so great but horrible team). Contestant #2 is Michael Kern. The 6th-year-senior who’s been in Winston the entire time and even started the VT game last year before hurting his shoulder. I’ll leave it up to your pessimistic or optimistic self to determine if it’s a good or bad thing that it’s this late into fall camp and neither one has separated themselves.

Regardless of who the QB is, they’ll have a plethora of talent around them. Do not sleep on RB Demond Claiborne who will be one of the best RBs in the conference by season's end. You won’t forget his name because I’ll be sure to remind you of the fact I wrote that exact sentence throughout the season when he proves my prediction astutely accurate. WR looks even more promising but the product has to match the hype. Taylor Morin will RPO/slant you to death and is the defacto safety valve. He’ll have 40+ catches for 500 yards for the 4th year in a row and no one will bat an eye. Past him is where the hype begins and I start drooling. Former blue-chip recruit Donovan Greene is back after missing all of last year with an injury. When he gets hot as he did two years ago, he is one of the best WRs in the ACC and that’s not an exaggeration. If Claiborne didn’t exist, Horatio Fields would be my ‘write his name down’ breakout pick on the team. Injuries have cost him but he looks to be finally healthy and while I take fall camp reports with a grain of salt, this is one I’m buying into. Fields is going to be damn good. Behind him, look out for highly touted recruits Jeremiah Melvin who’s 6’5 factory-made burner, and zippy Micah Mays who will be hard to keep off the field even with the talent in front of them. 

The offensive line returns 3 starters but the 2 new guys are both juniors and reports from fall camp suggest this isn’t a huge area of concern. What did I say about taking fall camp reports lightly? Damn the torpedoes! 

Akin to the offense, the Deacs have a majority of good-to-great position groups and one big question mark. Secondary and particularly CB is the seemingly eternal question mark and is the quickest armchair QB reaction to why we couldn’t get off the field on 3rd downs last year. Yes, we were inconsistent last year and there’s a lot of (mostly) warranted angst heading into the year. But, a lot of pressure comes off the secondary when your front seven can stop the run and get to the QB. Wake’s DL is the strength of this team and returns almost everyone on the 2-deep including future NFL draft pick Jasheen Davis. Up the middle Kevin Pointer goes through unblockable streaks and Kendron Wayman spells Davis on the opposite side. Behind them, LB Dylan Hazen is the stereotypical white MLB (think Brian Bosworth) who will rack up 100+ tackles with proven depth on either side of him. Back to the secondary, we know the talent is there but inconsistent play and especially injuries have seemingly cursed this position group. However, if the front seven is as stout as I expect them to be, they can mask a lot of deficiencies on the corners.

Holistically, the expectation at Wake Forest is to regularly make a bowl game, beat the Tobacco Road teams, and everything after that is icing on the cake. We’ve been spoiled with success under Clawson but there’s no reason to think he can’t right the ship after one horrible year. It happens to everyone except Nick Saban. NC A&T, Virginia, Cal, Stanford, Duke, UConn (!!), and Louisiana are on the schedule. Tough home games against Clemson and Ole Miss loom but beyond that, you’re left with trips to NC State, UNC, and Miami - three teams who always live up to their offseason hype. Can you, Carmen Sandiego, find 6+ wins in there? Roll mfing Deacs. 

Georgia: The Dawgs had won 29 straight football games before losing by three to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game (as is tradition) and being left out of the playoff last season, so the questions about complacency and entitlement that hovered around over the past two offseasons are long gone this year. Georgia enters the season as the #1 team in the country but if you listen to Kirby Smart, this is a mentally tough squad that has embraced being relentlessly physical as fall camp has gone on. If you are not a Georgia fan, this should scare you.

Not much needs to be said about the QB position with Carson Beck returning for his fourth year in the program and his second as the starter. He completed 72% of his passes for nearly 4,000 yards last season and enters 2024 as the #1 quarterback prospect in next year’s NFL Draft. There are really only a couple of minor things Beck needed to “work” on over the offseason, and by all accounts, he’s looked as good as he ever has in camp this year. We know what we’re getting out of Beck, and what we’re getting is very good. Kirby has been very encouraged on what he’s seen out of the backups Gunner Stockton and Jaden Rashada as well, and the buzz on freshman Ryan Puglisi is approaching “through the roof” levels. The Dawgs are in a great spot at QB in 2024.

The running back room is as deep as it has been since the days of Chubb and Michel, which is a far cry from where we were last year. Branson Robinson, the #1 running back in the 2022 class, returns after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury, and the camp reports are absolutely glowing about him. Kirby has been uncharacteristically candid about how good of a player (and person) Branson is, and how tough it was for the RB room to lose him last season. He’ll split many of the RB snaps with Florida transfer Trevor Etienne, a shifty and powerful guy who is already one of the league’s best RB’s. Rod Robinson is a big bruising back who has garnered a ton of offseason buzz after cutting some baby fat and looking like an absolute tank these days, and then there are the three blue chip freshmen backs the Dawgs brought in this offseason. Nate Frazier was the #1 running back in the country in this past recruiting class while Dwight Phillips Jr. possesses a level of speed that is genuinely comical (and this doesn’t even mention top recruit Chauncy Bowens who has been here since January). This room has the potential to be one of the better groups of backs Georgia has ever had, and the ability to hit homeruns out of the backfield could add a layer to an already great Georgia offense that we haven’t seen in years.

The receivers and the tight ends have question marks that have less to do with how good they are, and more to do with who they are replacing. Enough has been said about how good Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey were - those guys can’t be replaced individually. I’d put Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint’s ability as a pass-catcher and blocker right in there with them at the X position, as something the Dawgs may struggle to replace. But neither of these groups give me true concern - Miami transfer Colbie Young paired with Dominic Lovett and Dillon Bell is still one of the nation’s best receiving corps, and that’s before you even get to game-breaking speedsters Arian Smith and Anthony Evans out wide. At tight end, Oscar Delp could be a first round pick while reserves Lawson Luckie and Stanford transfer Benjamin Yurosek are talented enough to create headaches for opposing defenses. Bell and Lovett are guys I have my eye on as a breakout candidates to match the likes of McConkey, but even if they don’t fully explode onto the scene, this is a group I am unconcerned about headed into the season. I’ll put it simply on the offensive line in the same paragraph: this group has the potential to be the best OL of the Kirby era and will win the Joe Moore Award. Dominant.

Defensively, while Kirby’s group is still getting used to not having elite-level players at defensive end and tackle, this is still a top 5 (at minimum) group in the sport and after a year of playing and scheming with this unit of players, I have no doubt Kirby is ready to roll with them. Vets Nazir Stackhouse, Warren Brinson, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, and Fat Chris Miller are going to be hell for opponents to deal with, and it is my opinion that Mykel Williams (a phenomenal 5-tech who will be playing EDGE this year) will be the first pick in next year’s NFL Draft. He’ll play alongside several edge defenders who were ranked very highly coming out of high school, such as Damon Wilson, Jalon Walker, and Samuel Mpemba, who will make his job so much easier.

The inside linebacker room, to put it simply, is the best room to have existed in college football since Alabama’s 2020 receiver group. Future NFL draft pick Jamon Dumas-Johnson was quite literally encouraged to transfer to conference foe Kentucky to make room for rising sophomores CJ Allen (Roquan Smith clone) and Raylen Wilson (cracked-out pterodactyl), and that doesn’t even mention one of my favorite UGA players of all time, Smael Mondon who seems to be fully healthy after playing through major injuries last season. A healthy Smael cannot be understated - his instincts combined with his athleticism create arguably the best inside backer in the country when healthy. All of these guys will be backed up by 5-star true freshmen Chris Cole and Justin Williams, who was the #1 inside linebacker in the country out of high school this past cycle. Kirby has already identified both as guys that “will be leaders for us as they get older.”

The rotation at secondary is somewhat interesting, but very far from concerning to me. First-team All-American Malaki Starks will start at safety while veteran Daylen Everett holds down one corner position. Sophomore Joenel Aguero will play at nickel/STAR, a position of utmost importance in Kirby’s defense and a guy Kirby can’t help but glow about when speaking about. The other safety and corner spots are being competed upon by a collection of four and five-star talents, and Kirby has indicated he has 10+ guys he believes can play winning football in the secondary. This doesn’t even mention 5-star freshman KJ Bolden from Buford, who Kirby has also highlighted as a guy who could really push for playing time this season. The national media hasn’t caught onto this quite yet, but this may be the best secondary in the country this season. Michigan and Ohio State be damned.

Despite two straight national championships and becoming the premier program in the country over the past few years, playing like dogsh*t against Alabama and missing out on the CFP has left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Kirby’s comments during camp about how this team is a “long way away from where we need to be” should be highly concerning to other team’s who don’t know how he speaks. When Kirby is critical of his teams in practice and is publicly challenging guys to perform better, watch out. That means he thinks their potential is through the roof and that they have the mental toughness to dominate on a national scale. Yes, the schedule is tough - the games at Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss will not be easy. But there is a reason this team is ranked #1 yet again, despite Ohio State spending nearly eight digits in the transfer portal alone. While I am not guaranteeing we go 12-0 in the regular season, it’s worth remembering that we haven’t lost a regular season game in nearly 4 years. There isn’t a deeper team in the country, and a lackluster performance or two won’t eliminate us from national title contention in the new world of the 12-team playoff. We’re the national championship favorites for a reason, and I expect this squad to live up to those expectations.

Personality Hats are in

Fashion has spoken, and the personality hat is all the rage these days. You know what that means? It means it’s a great time to put your logo on a hat.

Talking about all the rage these days, you’re going to want to make it a Branded Bills hat. They make quality merch people actually want to wear.

Don’t just take it from us, see what a happy client has to say about the branded hats they just ordered:

“They're wearing them to bowling alleys, sporting events, etc.” Rebecca Ferguson, Empire CAT

If you want to make a statement with your company merch, hit up Branded Bills.

ICYMI: T-Shirts & SEC Survivor Pool

We still have t-shirts for sale. They’re $25 each and we can ship them to you if you don’t have plans to see either one of us in the next few months. We have mediums through 2XL and the easiest way to pay us is Venmo (@Rand-Fisher and @Tate-Smillie) but we accept all forms of payment except Russian Rubles. Shoot us a text or email if you’d like to procure this Egyptian cotton masterpiece. 

Quick reminder from last week, we wanted to highlight a competition we highly recommend you take part in - SEC Survivor Pool. The goal is to correctly pick one SEC team per week to win their game and be the last one standing. Be careful and plan ahead though, because once you get a pick wrong, you’re out. Both of us here at 4th & Forever have participated in recent years and we’ve had a blast with it - we couldn’t recommend it enough unless you pick Vanderbilt to beat UNLV in Week 3 like we definitely did not do. For more information on the rules and registration visit secsurvivor.com. Sign-ups and payment are due by August 27th so if you’re interested make sure you hop in now.

Where in the World is Rand?

If you’ve read the previous two newsletters you can probably guess I am still in Denver for BMW Championship: 15 days down, 7 to go. I will not be able to watch the FSU-GT game but you can bet your ass I’ll be finding a stream (legal, of course) to watch the Delaware State-Hawaii game. The DSU football team better be on any mode of transportation to Hawaii right now because the only thing getting me through these long days is the potential of watching this horrendous game and in less than a week I’ll be on a plane back to NC for the Wake-NC A&T game. Call me a sicko but the human spirit in me is still alive & well.

Have a great Thursday and we will talk to you next week.

Thank you for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.