Goya Beans, Baby Gronk, & NATO - Conference Realignment Refresher

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We’re 79 days away from the start of the 2024 season, a season that will be unlike anything we’ve seen in several ways, including the fact that UCLA and Rutgers will be playing a conference game on a Friday in November for some reason. In this edition, we’re discussing expectations for the new members of each conference which include passionate, relevant, and informative discussions on Baby Gronk, Goya Beans, Simba, NATO, and the future of Kennesaw State football. You just can’t get this type of content anywhere else. We’ll be starting 2024 season previews here in the next few weeks, but without further ado, let’s get to it. 

2024 Conference Realignment Refresher

SMU, Cal, and Stanford are coming into the ACC next year. SMU has been gunning for this since the death penalty while Cal & Stanford are just happy to be here after the PAC-12 imploded. What are the expectations for SMU and then Cal & Stanford as they assimilate into the ACC?

Rand: If you thought the football-crazed, oil-money-backed, stereotypical rich white kid school in the heart of Dallas, would enter the ACC with grace, respect, and caution then buddy, you ain’t never been to Texas. Akin to Simba in The Lion King, SMU believes it’s their divine right to be back in the highest levels of football after 40 years of wandering the wilderness following the death penalty stemming from the Pony Excess era. The SMU boosters have been lining their coffers for decades and now have a legitimate reason to empty the war chest. In the past transfer cycle, they reeled in commits from former Miami FL, Ohio State, Michigan, Arkansas, Colorado, Utah, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Oregon players. They fired their basketball coach after only 2 years because he wasn’t winning big enough even though they made the NIT after going 10-22 in year one to snag Andy Enfield from USC (formerly of Dunk City and Florida Gulf Coast). On the gridiron, head coach Rhett Lashlee brings over his high-scoring offense led by QB Preston Stone who threw for 2,500 yards and 26 TDs during the 2023 11-3 campaign. Aside from a visit from Florida State, the rest of their ACC schedule is a relative cakewalk: Louisville, Stanford, Duke, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Virginia, and Cal. Don’t be surprised if the Mustangs are pushing for an ACC Championship in year one because it’s very plausible. 

Leo DiCaprio’s character Jack, that rich asshole who ran OceanGate, and the PAC-12 might be at the bottom of the ocean, but Cal & Stanford paid for a first-class ticket which included priority boarding and a life raft sponsored by the ACC. Unlike SMU, who will be more loud and obnoxious than the people who FaceTime without headphones in public, Cal & Stanford are just lucky to be here. Life and travel might not be easy for the Cardinal & Bears, but it beats the hell out of having your decomposing corpse being an artifact for the next rich asshole who decides he’s gotten everything out of life except for diving down to the bottom of the ocean in a Goya Beans can with an Xbox controller. Cal’s schedule includes flights to Auburn, Tallahassee, Pittsburgh, Winston-Salem, and Dallas while Miami and NC State visit the Golden Bears. A lower-tier bowl game would be quite the accomplishment under 7th-year coach Justin Wilcox. Stud RB Jadyn Ott will make life easier but unproven QB play and a sieve of a defense lower the ceiling in Year 1. Meanwhile, Troy Taylor is coming off a 3-9 debut season at Stanford which included an embarrassing loss to his former team Sacramento State. He’s going to have plenty of leash to install his spread offense which includes RPO mesh concepts learned from watching Clawson & the Deacs but don’t expect a massive jump in Year 2. Flights to Raleigh, South Bend, Clemson, and Syracuse with visits from TCU, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and SMU mean Cardinal fans might need to start circling 2025 on their calendars. Beggars can’t be choosers, be careful what you wish for, yada yada yada but the Berkeley and Palo Alto police departments might be wishing the life raft left without them after a weekend of being overrun with fans of Clemson, Miami, and SMU who assume Silicon Valley is a place for boob jobs.

The Big 12 adds Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah this season. With the absence of Texas and Oklahoma, the league title seems wide open and now there’s an automatic playoff berth on the line - can any of these teams claim it?

Tate: First & foremost, let’s get one thing out of the way: the answer is no for Arizona State.

Now that we have that covered, we’re left with three interesting teams entering an interesting league. I don’t think I need to say much about Colorado - this team has a few really high-level, top-end talent players in Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, and freshman Jordan Seaton, but likely lacks the depth to compete week-to-week enough to compete for the title. Would it shock me if the Buffs were in the hunt entering November? No, especially because CU’s Big 12 schedule is pretty soft in the first part of the season. But the defense is just so, so bad, and there are simply more talented, better-coached teams throughout the league. Deion and his guys are definitely going to win the TV Ratings Championship and we’re inevitably going to be talking about them all year, but this team is still more of a reality TV show than it is a championship contender. 

That leaves us with Arizona and Utah, and the short answer for them is yes, either of these teams could be the one to claim an automatic bye in the inaugural 12-team playoff and I wouldn’t be shocked at all. Arizona lost head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington but it managed to retain star players Noah Fifita at QB and Tetairoa McMillan at WR, and coming off of a 10-3 season last year, the expectations in Tucson are as high as they’ve been in years. Had Fisch stayed with the Wildcats this very well may have been my preseason pick to win the league, but even without him, this team is going to be in the race. If they do end up winning the league, I’m excited to see FOX send Gronk to shotgun a beer and spike the trophy for no reason at all.

Utah returns 29th-year senior Cam Rising at QB and head coach Kyle Whittingham is as good as it gets in college football. The Utes dealt with some bad injury luck in the PAC-12 last year, but they won the league in both 2021 and 2022, they return a ton of talent, and they are more than ready to play the physical style of football we’re seeing permeate throughout the Big 12. They’ll likely be the favorite to win the league heading into the year and barring another season of catastrophic injuries, there’s no doubt this team will at least be near the top of the conference come season’s end.

The Big Ten adds Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA this year. Why the hell did they do that and how will these teams fare in the B1G in 2024?

Rand: The quick answer is the Big 10 adding USC & UCLA was a direct response to the SEC adding Texas & Oklahoma the summer before. Akin to Stanford & Cal in the ACC, the Big 10 threw Washington and Oregon a life raft but this one came with Dom Perignon and flight attendants to fan you off with palm tree leaves and hand feed you grapes from the Chilean Andes. Oregon is to the Big 10 what SMU is to the ACC: a roster set up to win now, rich boosters, and irrationally high expectations. UCLA is in the Cal/Stanford bucket of racking up air miles and playing for the love of the game, not because it’s a life-and-death proposition for their fanbase. USC & Washington are the interesting programs heading into the season and no one can quite figure out where they fit into the greater conference picture.

The shine on Lincoln Riley at USC might be wearing off even with his stout 19-8 record through two years. Of course, how does one lose 8 games with Caleb Williams as your quarterback? Chicago Bears fans will be able to answer that in about 6 months but I digress. With September matchups against LSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin, we’re going to learn real quick if former DC Alex Grinch was a Steve Bartman-esque scapegoat or if Lincoln Riley legitimately does not know how to field a competent defense. QB Miller Moss looked incredible in his limited action last year but if you're a Trojan fan you’d feel a lot more comfortable if it was 5-star Malachi Nelson behind center but he opted for the rolling hills of Boise, Idaho, and the smurf turf instead. Washington returns three starters from their national title appearance team but it’s usually not good when two of them are your kicker and punter. Jedd Fisch comes over from Arizona and brings QB Will Rogers who threw for just over a bajillion yards at Mississippi State. If you have any idea what to make of Washington in 2024 please call your bookie and place no less than a mortgage payment or two. 

Texas & OU are joining the SEC after years of dominating the Big 12, mainly Oklahoma. Will it be a seamless transition to the SEC or will they miss the relative ease of the Big 12, especially in the era of the 12-team CFB?

Tate: You almost - almost - have to feel bad for Oklahoma in this situation, because after an entire decade of absolutely dominating the Big 12 under Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley, Riley left for USC and took a ton of great players with him which has significantly hurt OU over the past two years while drunk maniac Steve Sarkisian and Texas, their biggest rival, just went to the playoff and now look primed to be a top-three SEC team right off the bat. Not only is Texas simply a much better team than Oklahoma heading into 2024, but the SEC managed to give the Sooners a much tougher schedule than the Longhorns, too. On top of playing Texas and Tennessee early in the year, four of the Sooners’ last five games come against Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, and LSU. Texas’ last five games come against Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Texas A&M - quite possibly five straight unranked teams before a possible SEC Championship Game. What the hell Greg Sankey?

It’s not all bad for Oklahoma though - rising Sophomore QB Jackson Arnold looks like he is going to be the real deal, and while Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma completely void of any defensive aptitude, head coach Brent Venables has started to stock up some real talent on that side of the ball, including five-star defensive tackle David Stone in this past recruiting class. Venables improved from 6-7 in his first year in 2022 to 10-3 last year, and OU returns 65% of its overall production from last year. Oklahoma is going to be competitive in their first year in the league, but there is a reason their Vegas preseason win total is sitting at 7.5. I’m not expecting a playoff berth here.

Texas on the other hand? Yeahhhh… they’ll be ready. We’ll certainly take a deeper look at the Longhorns during our full SEC preview in the coming weeks, but Quinn Ewers is back for a third season to throw to a plethora of talented receivers behind a really good offensive line. The defensive line and linebacker rooms are flooded with talent and while the secondary may get them in trouble at times this year, again, there’s a reason their win total is sitting at 10.5. This is very likely a playoff team and possibly the best team in the league this season. I’m sure Texas fans will be very level-headed and rational about it.

Let’s pour one out for Oregon State & Wazzu:

Tate: We’ve poured one out for these two beautiful programs about thirty times over the past year here at 4th & Forever, but we still remain heartbroken about where these teams have been left. After the death of the PAC-12 last summer, both Wazzu and the Beavers will have partnered with the Mountain West Conference to create a scheduling alliance over the next two seasons, and while one might think they’d have a leg up on the teams in that league they’ll be playing, the transfer portal has murdered both of these teams. QB Cam Ward single-handedly carried Wazzu to some wins last year, and he plays for Miami now. Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei transferred to Florida State, and his highly touted replacement Aiden Chiles transferred to Michigan State to follow head coach Jonathan Smith who also left for the Big Ten. 

We’re still holding out hope that Oregon State somehow runs the table and beats #2 Oregon at the end of the season to make the playoffs, but in all honesty, we’re just sad. Here’s to you, Wazzu and Oregon State *pours entire beer on the hardwood floor while Diva yells at me to stop.*

Army joins the AAC after years of being Independent while Kennesaw State moves up from FCS to join CUSA. Does anything intrigue you about these situations?

Rand: Army finally joins Navy after years of being the lone independent service academy but in an ideal world they’d both still be independent, playing a national schedule against high-level P4 and G5 teams. Unfortunately, college football operates with a money-first mindset and not even our military institutions are immune from this toxic groupthink. For reference see The Allied Powers, NATO, and the Union. Okay, maybe Army & Navy joining the American conference won’t be so bad. Tip of the cap to Army for sending Navy in to do all the dirty work in this conference so they can come in unabashed and with clean uniforms. I’m sure the history buffs out there can also name other historical instances of this. With AAC powers Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, and SMU all leaving, life in the American is about to get a whole lot easier. Army’s first 5 conference games are against FAU, Rice, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, and East Carolina. They’re set up for success with Jeff Monken at the helm who is one of the 20 best coaches in CFB and these AAC teams like Charlotte, North Texas, and UAB are going to learn real quick why playing Army & Navy is like getting a midseason colonoscopy. 

Speaking of colonoscopies, Kennesaw State better have good insurance because they might be living at the outpatient clinic this fall. This football program didn’t even exist 10 years ago and it’s no coincidence that their ascension closely coincides with the Braves moving their stadium and ballpark village out to bumfuck. Brian Bohanan has been the coach for all 9 years of the program's existence and his triple-option attack yielded 3 Big South titles since 2017. However, to prep for this move to FBS he installed a Colin Kaepernick Nevada-esque pistol offense and only started his key players for 4 games last year to preserve their redshirt which led to a 3-6 2023 campaign. Instead of facing off against the mighty Tusculum Pioneers, venerable Lincoln Oaklanders, and ferocious Virginia-Lynchburg Dragons, they’ll be getting their brains beat to a pulp by Liberty, Western Kentucky, and San Jose State. Welcome to the big leagues Kennesaw. Bona Fortuna. 

Where in the World is Tate?

I’m headed up to good ole Athens, GA on Saturday with my good friend Jack Zucker to watch the #7 Georgia Diamond Dawgs take on NC State in our Super Regional matchup this weekend. Jack and his brother Drew offered me an incredible ticket above the UGA dugout for the Dawgs first Super Regional game in 16 years, which is really the least they could do considering how lucky they are to have me as a friend. I am incredibly excited to watch Charlie Condon get intentionally walked three times while our pitching staff gives up 9 runs in a game we inexplicably win. Go Dawgs.

Texts of the Week

“Oh my god is this what being a Wake fan is like year round? Holy shit this is intense” - Clemson fan Griff Tompkins watching his first ever Wake baseball game. (Wake lost).

“Well there’s always football season.” - Clemson fan Griff Tompkins trying to console Rand over Wake’s baseball season ending. Yeah, that’s reassuring…thanks, Griff.

“Army is focused on Ukraine, East Asia, and the Middle East. Looking past Georgia is a HUGE mistake.” - Alec Nathan

“NOOOOOOOOO” - Alex Sztejnberg after hearing that Baby Gronk flipped his commitment from Georgia to Florida on Sunday

“Reminds me of cricket” - Alex Sztejnberg while watching the most exhilarating UGA baseball game in 15+ years

Thank you for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.