The Vultures are Circling: Week 7 Preview

Good morning and welcome back to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. An elephant never forgets, neither does the internet, and lucky for you, neither do I (Rand). You can call me an elephant if you want. I consider it endearing. Anywho, I’m old enough to remember when a certain hire, “has been, currently is, and will continue to be an unmitigated failure.” That was a mere 34 days ago, following UNC’s humiliation at the hands of TCU. But have no fear ye of little faith, I declared Belichick would be a disaster way back in December of last year. So yeah, I’m here to collect my winnings, take a victory lap, and gloat. I don’t get many chances like this - just look at my OnlyRans record, so please indulge me just through the end of this paragraph. It’s Wednesday night as of writing and in the past 48 hours, we’ve had the following: a scathing look at the locker room dysfunction by a Raleigh news station, Hulu announcing they will not be releasing their planned Hard Knocks-style documentary on the Heels, a report that UNC social media was barred from posting anything pro-Patriots following Drake Maye’s upset win over the Bills on Monday night only to post a highlight clip less than an hour after the report, an assistant coach getting suspended for impremissable benefits, a report that UNC is circling the wagons to see if they can fire Bill for cause (recruiting violations), and just a few minutes ago, Bill released a statement that he’s ‘fully committed’ to his job. Yeah, no shit! He’s owed $20 million if he’s fired today, tomorrow, or 3 weeks from now. If you don’t think this can get any worse, just remember rock bottom is a fluid concept. Trust me on this one, I’m a Wake basketball fan. Week 7 is upon us, and luckily for our corneas, it does not involve Bill Belichick pretending like he gives a shit. 

The Three Week 7 Games to Watch

#8 Alabama (4-1) @ #14 Missouri (5-0): ALA -2.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Alabama has looked like arguably the best team in the country ever since their debacle in Tallahassee, but now has yet another very difficult road test two weeks after beating Georgia in Athens and taking care of Vanderbilt at home. Ty Simpson has the Bama offense cooking -  especially with the return of RB Jam Miller - and the Tide defense continues to look good - against non-mobile QB’s, at least.

Which brings us to Mizzou and their quarterback Beau Pribula, who is, well, mobile. Kalen Deboer’s Bama defenses have really struggled against these types of guys, most recently against FSU’s Tommy Castellanos. Pribula isn’t alone, either, as RB Ahmad Hardy is probably the best back in the country right now - 731 yards and 9 TDs (!!!) - and the Tigers have got some pretty good receivers, as they always do. The Mizzou defense isn’t as good as it has been in years past, but Deboer’s Bama offenses have also had a tendency to go on the road and look like they’re playing sarcastaball at times.

We’ve seen Mizzou pop up on Alabama’s schedule before, with the national media hyping it up as a “trap” game for the Tide. That never happens, but this year… well, we just suggest keeping your eye on this one.

#7 Indiana (5-0) @ #3 Oregon (5-0): ORE -7.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

We’ve seen this movie before, and we think we’re going to see it again here. Remember two years ago when Deion and the 3-0 Buffs rolled into Eugene proclaiming they were God’s gift to humanity? Oregon won 42-6 and Colorado went on to finish the season 4-8, while the Ducks lost two games the rest of the year, both to Michael Pennix Jr. and Washington. Don’t get it twisted, Indiana is much more talented than Colorado, but Oregon under Dan Lanning just does that to teams. He’s 40-6 in his fourth year and aside from an upset Civil War loss to Oregon State in his first year, his losses are to Ryan Day, Ryan Day, Kirby Smart, Kalen DeBoer, Kalen DeBoer, Kalen DeBoer, and Kalen DeBoer. 

Curt Cignetti can easily skyrocket into that tier of coaches with a win here. We’re not knocking his coaching chops or disrespecting what he’s done with Indiana. In case you need reminding, Indiana has a worse all-time winning percentage than Buffalo, Rice, FAU, Eastern Michigan, Akron, to name a few, and if Wake Forest didn’t exist, they’d be the worst in the P4. Point is, there’s a pretty big gap between “turning Indiana into a perennial winner” and “going into Eugene and beating Oregon.” The blowout playoff loss to Notre Dame will be held against them, fair or not, but this is a results-based profession, and it takes a lot to get a seat at the table or the benefit of the doubt. Should Indiana pull off the upset, we’ll be talking about QB Fernando Mendoza being the best QB in the nation, supplanting Oregon’s own Dante Moore.

Red River Shootout: #6 Oklahoma (5-0) @ Texas (3-2): TEX -2.5, O/U 42.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

A former Big 12 game nicknamed the Red River “Shootout” between one of the most prolific offensive programs of the past decade and the team that starts Arch Manning, and the O/U is, uh, 42.5. That’s the reality as we head into the second SEC Red River due to a multitude of factors that will likely lead to a pretty low scoring affair. First, of course, is that Oklahoma literally doesn’t have its quarterback after John Mateer went down a few weeks ago. The Sooners are in an interesting spot there, though, as Michael Hawkins Jr. will step in for the time being. Hawkins started multiple games and definitely flashed at times despite playing behind a horrid offensive line, and both OU and Hawkins decided to stick together this year despite Mateer transferring in with the plan to redshirt him this year and set him up to be the starter in the future. Point being, this isn’t just some random backup. But he’ll have his hands full here against a Texas defense that has tons of talent all over the field. Mateer himself hasn’t relied too much on his arm and has rather beat teams with his legs when he’s needed to, and while Hawkins is more than capable of that, Mateer has been able to put the team on his back in massively critical moments multiple times this year. Does Hawkins have that same clutch gene? We’ll see, but the odds of them having two guys with that ability seem incredibly slim.

On the flip side, though, things are obviously not going swimmingly for Sark’s offense either. We all know by now that Arch has been a complete and total bust so far, and it isn’t just that he’s missing open guys - though he’s doing that too. The main concern is that he is just not seeing the field at all, at times looking like he has no earthly idea where defenders even are on the field. Who is he going up against this weekend? Why, Brent Venables of course. The guy who for a decade, has run a defense that the entire football world agrees has the most complicated, confusing pre-snap looks causing offenses and quarterbacks to have no real idea what they’re doing at any time. Not a great matchup for Arch! This particular Sooners defense is getting after it in general right now, too, so we’re intrigued to see if the narrative around Arch continues to be that he’s one of the biggest busts ever, or if it catapults in a positive direction with a good performance against one of the country’s best defenses.

Either way, we wouldn’t count on a lot of points being scored here.

The Other Week 7 Games to Watch

The week kicks off with a banger Friday matchup, as two of the three best G5 teams at the moment - USF and North Texas - kickoff in Denton. North Texas is 5-0 behind QB Drew Mestemaker who has been almost perfect so far (68% completion, 1,200 yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs) and an efficient running game that keeps defenses honest. USF is back up to #24, with a win over Florida and its only loss to a fantastic Miami team on the road. The Bulls are lighting the world on fire offensively against non-P4 teams, and QB Byrum Brown is playing outside of his entire mind. Both of these programs have grander aspirations than being in the G5 forever - or really even just for that much longer - they’re both putting money in to grow their programs and attract talent, and it’s all culminating to what should be an absolute banger of a fun game that, dare we say, could have real playoff implications as these teams, along with undefeated Memphis, are the frontrunners for the G5 spot come December.

As President George Dubya once stuttered, “There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me, you can't get fooled again.” Whatever he meant to say, we think it’s applicable to not buying into the Illinois hype again. Last time we featured them, they let Indiana hang 63 on them, but to their credit, they have rebounded nicely with an upset win over USC and a comfortable win over Purdue. Well, now they get the Buzzsaw Buckeyes in Champaign for Big Noon. The Buckeyes are 14.5-point favorites, so our advice is to second-screen this behind Bama-Mizzou. As for a “monitor on your phone until it’s close in the 4th quarter,” we bring you Pitt heading to Tallanasty. Florida State is on the Champs Sports Bowl radar while Pitt might be on midseason revival watch. After benching QB Eli Holstein, they gave the reins to Mason Heintschel, who threw for 323 and 4 TDs in a romp over Boston College last weekend. A Noles loss here will reinvigorate the calls to fire Mike Norvell. That Alabama win is carrying a LOT of weight for him at the moment. 

In the afternoon slate, we’ve got a trio of games for you to pair with Oregon-Indiana, Red River, and of course, Wake-Oregon State. First, we’ll be watching a bloodbath in South Bend as Dave Doeren’s listless Wolfpack head to South Bend. We’ll also be scoreboard watching TCU at Kansas State. The spread is only -1.5 to the Horned Frogs because Kansas State’s 2-4 record is deceiving, given all losses are by a touchdown or fewer. And finally, in Rocky Top we have the return of Razorbacks head coach Bobby Petrino, who will surely have some offensive wrinkles for the Vols but likely can’t fix his inherited defense that was last seen giving up 56 to Notre Dame. 

We’re not one to mince words around here, so let’s just get this out of the way: this evening slate fucking slaps. Let’s start with Michigan visiting the LA Coliseum for the second time ever and first since 1957. Bryce Underwood and Jayden Maiava are two of the best QBs in the conference and the chess match between Lincoln’s offense and Michigan’s defense will be fascinating. We’ve also got the spunky, upstart Florida Gators heading to Kyle Field to face the undefeated Aggies. Keep your eye on Florida freshman WR Dallas Wilson, who went for 111 yards and 2 TDs in his season debut (injury) against Texas last week. He’s the real deal but this TAMU defense is too. We’ve also got the immovable force (LSU’s offense) vs the unstoppable offense (South Carolina’s offense) in Death Valley. If you read that as a compliment to both, you’d be wrong. They’re both ‘figuring it out’ which is something you’d like to hear in Week 2, not 7. And finally, in the chaotic Big 12 we’ve got undefeated BYU heading to 4-1 Arizona while 4-1 Utah hosts 4-1 Arizona State. That viral corgi who hits basketballs on the stairs probably has a better idea of what’s going on in the Big 12 than we do so just soak in the choas and have a wonderful Week 7. 

OnlyRans

Last Week: 2-8 // Season Record: 26-30 (46%)

Hands up, that was one of my worst performances since last year, and for that, I apologize. I should go back and look at my season record for O/U’s because I think it’s like 1-7 with my only hit being Clemson-UNC over from last weekend (lol). Will I stop telling you to bet on ULM against Northwestern, or to take Iowa State because ‘Vegas doesn’t know shit’? Absolutely not. 95% of gamblers stop right before they win the jackpot. Will it happen this week? Let’s see. 

Michigan +2.5 @ USC: Did USC fix their defense over the bye week that was last seen giving up 502 yards to Illinois? My hunch is no and they’ll need a track meet here to beat Michigan. 

Old Dominion -14.5 @ Marshall: Hate the hook here but ODU is a wagon and is the only team to play competitively against Indiana thus far. The Monarchs' defense is top 10 nationally in stop rate with 79% of their opponents' drives ending in punts or turnovers. Marshall’s is 104th in the same metric.

Georgia -3.5 @ Auburn: Georgia doesn’t have a pass rush, which is more surprising than them having 0 arrests during the bye week, but Auburn QB Jackson Arnold holds onto the ball for way too long. Dawgs roll. 

Florida +7.5 @ Texas A&M: Florida has been competitive in every game but keeps getting healthier with every passing week. Like clockwork, I’ll bet on Florida’s midseason resurgence and TAMU’s midseason collapse.

Clemson -14.5 @ Boston College: UNC is horrible but somehow Boston College is worse. 

South Carolina +9.5 @ LSU: Betting against LSU at night in Death Valley? Uh, yeah. Their QB can’t throw because of an oblique injury and they don’t have a run game. 

Iowa State +2.5 @ Colorado: Vegas really hates Iowa State for some reason, but I can’t trust a Colorado team that can’t hold a lead and hasn’t had a head coach this week because Deion is undergoing more procedures for blood clots. Hoping he’s OK. 

Penn State -21.5 v Northwestern: Ugly, I know, but Northwestern sucks and Penn State will be out to prove they aren’t an abject failure in every sense of the word…even if they are.

Oklahoma +1.5 v Texas: Even if Sooners QB John Mateer doesn’t play, I don’t trust Arch and his chinchilla fur offensive line against an Oklahoma defense that’s third nationally in sacks. 

Michigan State -8.5 v UCLA: One of the reasons UCLA jumped out to a huge lead on Penn State is given the OC switch 3 days before the game, Penn State had no idea what offense they were going to run. Their problem was, they didn’t make adjustments and lost the game. After a week of reveling in the big win, UCLA now must travel to Michigan State for a 9am PT kick. Michigan State now has tape on them and I think the Bruins come back to earth.

Parlay: South Florida @ North Texas and Arkansas @ Tennessee over 68.5: I’ve already noted my mathematical defying (in)ability to pick these O/U’s incorrectly, but these two are ridiculously huge, so have some fun and bet the overs here. For shits and gigs, the lowest game total of the day belongs to Iowa @ Wisconsin at 35.5. I will not be doling out betting advice on that crime against humanity. 

Tate’s Great Picks 

Last Week: 4-4 // Season Record: 18-21 (49%)

Fresno State -6.5 @ Colorado State

TCU -1.5 @ Kansas State

Michigan +2.5 @ USC

UNLV -6.5 vs Air Force, U 65.5

Texas A&M -7.5 vs Florida

Wyoming +1.5 vs SJSU

Oklahoma +1.5 vs Texas, U 43.5

Oregon -7.5 vs Indiana

Wake Forest & Georgia

Wake Forest (3-2) @ Oregon State (0-6): Wake -2.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET The CW

The Deacs head to Corvallis this weekend for their first-ever meeting with Oregon State. The Beavs are the poster child (along with Wazzu) for why realignment has sent this some proud, undeserving program into the college football abyss. It’s why Jake Dickert himself is in Winston-Salem and not Palouse, why Oregon State played in Boone last weekend, and bought Wake out of their return trip to Ole Miss just for this matchup. Anarchy, greed, and George Kliavkoff are other reasons that are much too long for this preview, but point is, the Beavers are 0-6 on the year. Per SP+, the only power conference teams that share a ranking in the 100s with them are UNC and Oklahoma State.

Since getting blown out by top 10 teams Texas Tech and Oregon, the Beavers had an OT loss to Houston and were an App State goal line stand away from eeking out a win in Boone. Old friend by way of Durham QB Maliik Murphy is here, and while the skill players around him aren’t anything special, he’s still talented. But talent can’t hide the fact the Beavs are 122nd in scoring offense, 127th in scoring defense, 123rd in turnover margin, 132nd in the red zone, and just fired their special teams coach for one of the worst units ever seen in college football. I’m not kidding.

In Week 1 against Cal, they went 0-2 on two-point conversions, which is an ominous sign as I bury the lede. 

Against Fresno State in Week 2, they had 2 botched PAT attempts where the ball went over the holder’s head, 2 botched punt attempts one of which that was returned for a TD after the punter tried to kick it off the ground, a dropped snap by said punter, a missed FG, and then they 0-4 on two-point conversions because shockingly, they couldn’t kick an extra point.

The next week against Texas Tech, here’s how their 1st quarter drives went: 29-yard punt by AJ Winsor downed at the 50. 23-yard punt by Windsor downed at the Oregon State 48. 36-yard punt by QB Maliik Murphy (improvement!). Missed 47-yard field goal. Here, Oregon State had their punter, Winsor, line up at roughly shotgun distance and essentially pooch punt it every time - hence the short yardages. However, they did convert their first two XP attempts of the season. Improvement!

Against Oregon of all teams, they didn’t have any issues! Scoring only 7 points helped but they did allow Oregon’s punter to fake them out and run for 24 yards and a first down. In the non-special teams department against Houston, they blew a two-touchdown 4th quarter lead but their game-winning FG attempt was blocked (second of the night), and they lost in OT.

Anyways, they just fired their special teams coach, their long snapper is out for a while with a hand injury, and they clearly don’t have a suitable replacement. That’s probably enough on Oregon State’s special teams, don’t ya think? 

For the Deacs, I’m watching the health of RB Demond Claiborne, who didn’t play in the second half against Virginia Tech, and QB Robby Ashford (gulp), who was out of the game momentarily but was peeling himself off the field at the end like those elastic sticky hands you throw against the window. Get a win, and get healthy heading into the much-needed bye week. Deacs by a billion.

#10 Georgia (4-1) @ Auburn (3-2): UGA -3.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

The Dawgs are headed back to the only place that Auburn has beaten them at in the last twenty years, and only three times in that timeframe, to face a team that somehow might need this victory even more than we do. Auburn looked good in Week 1 against Baylor, but their offense seems to be in a bit of a free fall as teams have started to realize that they’re almost entirely one-dimensional. I’ve been a big believer in Jackson Arnold for over two years now after he garnered a lot of preseason hype as a freshman at Oklahoma and looked great in mop up duty, but at this point he is who he is. He’s a good athlete that makes you respect his legs, but it’s become clear that he’s less Johnny Football and more this guy when trying to push the ball down the field. Still, receivers like Cam Coleman, Eric Singleton Jr. and Malcolm Simmons are massive threats on the outside, and our DB’s haven’t exactly lit the world on fire thus far. The Auburn defense looks good but somewhat untested thus far - Keldric Faulk is a potential first rounder off the edge, but there isn’t a whole lot of otherworldly talent on the Tiger defense this year. But it’ll still be a test for Gunner and the offense in an environment that is sure to be electric.

For the Dawgs, it’s been a relatively quiet week after we handled business against Kentucky, but also didn’t look absolutely incredible in doing so. We suffered yet another on the offensive line with LT Monroe Freeling going down against Kentucky, and while it doesn’t sound super serious, the injuries there seem to be just killing this offense’s potential at the moment. Our ability to pull away from a team that we are better than hangs on this group’s ability to establish itself on the ground, which, to be fair, they’ve mostly been able to do so far in 2025. Our first road test went pretty damn well as an offense, but that does not mean it’ll be easily repeatable in our glorious sport of college football. I do think our defense matches up well with the Auburn offense, and again, I think we are just a better football team than they are. But Cam Newton’s jersey is being retired before the game, it’s at night, and Hugh Freeze teams typically show up for these games. I’ll do my small part and be loud as hell in the stands. Go Dawgs!

Texts of the Week

“I’ve never seen the general public point and laugh at UNC. Not even in African American studies gate” - John H. We’d argue there are numerous instances of the general public laughing at UNC, but the greater point remains. 

“That shit was pornhub.” - An unnamed Wake fan after a TD

“This is an ass-off” Alex S during Texas/Florida

“Showing a LinkedIn commercial after Arch throws an interception is a sign” - Sam W

“Cash is a DEI running back” - Alex S

Where in the World are We?

Tate: I spent last weekend in Vegas but am somehow headed into an even more depraved, godless, soul-obliterating, cesspool of depravity: Auburn, Alabama. As I mentioned above, Auburn chose this weekend to hang Cam Newton’s jersey in the rafters. I was a child in 2010 when Cam Newton’s Plainsmen hung on to beat a very bad UGA team, when Nick Fairely tried to literally murder Aaron Murray like six times. I was at the 2013 “Prayer at Jordan Hare” game. Hell, I was even there in 2017 when we came in as the #1 team and got smoked - the last time Auburn beat us. 

But I was also there weeks later in 2017 when we got revenge in Atlanta. I was there in 2019 when we beat them with a sack to end the game. 2021 when we smoked them. And I’ve watched every Georgia victory over Auburn at Sanford Stadium since our streak started in The Blackout of 2007. My life has been filled with Georgia beating back terrorism both in Athens and in Auburn. I don’t plan on watching evil have its day on Saturday.

Rand: Did you think to yourself after reading the Wake preview, “if there’s one away game Rand isn’t going to it’s probably the one in Bumfuck, Oregon.” Wrong. You can bet your sweet ass I’ll be at that game. When else will I have an excuse to go to Corvallis, Oregon? I say that about a lot of things I do in life, but the flights have been booked since March, so no going back now.

I’ve mentioned it in previous newsletters, but for the new and uninitiated, my Dad and I have an annual tradition to go to one random college football game together. It doesn’t have to be the biggest game of the year, involve Wake Forest (necessarily), or even be played between teams we care about. Our one and only stipulation is that it has to be cool. “It” and “cool” are open for interpretation. In previous years, we’ve gone to LSU, Colorado, USC, Army-Navy, South Carolina, Florida State, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and probably some more I’m forgetting. The added benefit of this trip out west is my dad gets to reconnect with an old high school buddy of his who will become our de facto tour guide, and on Friday night, we’ll catch Washington-Rutgers in Seattle. 2 games, 24 hours, and a whole day on Sunday to mosey our way back to Seattle to catch a redeye which will include stops at Cannon Beach and whatever else we may find interesting. Any tips for the Oregon Coast are greatly appreciated, and if you need me on Monday, no you don’t. 

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.