A Needed Distraction: Week 10 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. If you need a distraction from what’s going to go down on Tuesday night and/or society in general, we strongly suggest welcoming college football into your loving arms. Don’t want to watch the election results? Watch the first playoff reveal show at 7 pm instead. Still not satisfied? Catch the return of MACtion on Tuesday night with Bowling Green-Central Michigan at 7:30 pm and Miami (OH)-Ball State at 8:00 pm. College football can and will hurt you and there’s still unruly discourse about rigged processes, death threats against perceived enemies, and conspiracy theories abound, but at its core, it’s a simple game with low stakes. Lmao who are we kidding, if you’ve seen either of us during a close Wake or Georgia football game you know the amount of passion we have and the mental toll this sport takes on us. The election sucks, and sometimes college football can too. So let’s take solace in knowing that we’re all fighting to beat the shit out of our rivals and inflict irreparable and eternal pain and suffering on them. Week 10 was nuts with seven top 25 teams losing so let’s focus on that. Not Puerto Rico, Fascism, or the unfortunate realization that the Selzer Poll is not a ranking of the best Whiteclaw flavors. (The answer is Watermelon). Let’s talk footbawl!

Week 10 Recap

Upset City

Let’s start in the Palmetto State where Saturday night treated us to two monumental upsets. First, Louisville scored their first win ever over #11 Clemson after trouncing Dabo and the boys 33-21 in a game that was not as close as the score suggests. The Tigers could not stop Cards RB Isaac Brown who went for 151 yards and a TD on just 20 carries. Louisville protected the football and won all the high-leverage moments by stopping Clemson on downs once, blocking two field goals, and recovering two onside kicks. This loss likely knocks Clemson out of the ACC Title and playoff picture and the calls for Dabo to utilize the transfer portal this offseason will only get louder. Want to guess which coach turned around his program through the use of the transfer portal? Jeff Brohm and Louisville. However, we don’t think that the offensive turnaround and promise Clemson showed since the Georgia game was a farce as Klubnik had yet another strong game here, we just don’t think it’s coincidental that Clemson has laid eggs against the two good teams they’ve faced on the year. The expectation in Death Valley is much greater than the Gator Bowl and Dabo needs to adjust. 

It was much merrier on the other side of the state when South Carolina beat the hell out of #10 Texas A&M 44-20 and promptly stormed the field. It was a beatdown from the opening kick as A&M could not stop the run, turned the ball over, lost their best RB to injury, and could not find any momentum in front of the raucous crowd. There's still a playoff path for TAMU heading into their bye week with matchups against New Mexico State and Auburn left, but having their season hinge on their ability to beat Texas in the last game of the season is a precarious position to be in. South Carolina proved once again they are a pain in the ass to play at home but we’ll be looking to see if they can go put the nail in the coffin for Missouri and Clemson at the end of the month. 

Elsewhere in the SEC, Vanderbilt beat Auburn 17-7 in Jordan-Hare as Dores QB Diego Pavia improved to 3-0 against Hugh Freeze and Vandy swept the state of Alabama. Freeze now owns a 9-13 record as the head coach of Auburn which is notable because they fired Bryan Harsin after a 9-12 start to his tenure. Freeze will survive the year and has a huge recruiting class coming in next year, but if the boosters start to turn on this moron (which they should) then we might be looking at yet another coaching carousel with Auburn front and center. Vanderbilt picked a great weekend to clinch bowl eligibility as the rest of their schedule is South Carolina, LSU, and Tennessee. 

It was a good weekend to be in the state of Texas unless you’re from College Station. Texas Tech went to Ames and knocked off #11 Iowa State thanks to a last second touchdown from the Big 12s best RB in Tahj Brooks. The loss doesn’t eliminate the Cyclones from playoff contention but it likely means the Big 12 will not get an at-large bid in addition to whoever wins the conference. Houston threw a grenade of their own into the Big 12 standings by knocking off #17 Kansas State 24-19. Houston QB Zeon Chriss led the team with 75 rushing yards as the midseason QB switch looks like it’s paying off for Willie Fritz and the Cougars. BYU is the only remaining unbeaten in the conference and needs to be on high when the Cougars head to Provo at the end of the year. Lastly, shoutout to Rice who started off last week by firing their head coach and finished it by beating Navy 24-10. We can put the Navy to the playoff talk to bed as they can now focus on ruining Army’s undefeated season if Notre Dame doesn’t do it first.

Business as Usual

Not everybody got upset though, as the wagon that is #13 Indiana briefly looked like they might end up in the above category as well after going down 10-0 to Michigan State. But then the Hoosiers went and scored 47 unanswered points (!!!) to cruise to a 47-10 victory. We’re loving this unfolding Cinderella story but we do want to point out that Indiana has not yet played a team that even received a single vote in this week’s updated AP Poll. We don’t mean to take away from their accomplishments, but it’s a good representation of how scheduling in these massive, division-less superconferences are going to be moving forward - very unbalanced, especially when you compare it to a team like Ohio State or Georgia who have both played two separate road games against top 5 teams to this point. It’ll get tougher for the Hoosiers in November as they take on Michigan next week and Ohio State the next.

Speaking of #4 Ohio State, the Buckeyes did what they literally always do and beat #3 Penn State 20-13. Once again, we were led to believe this could finally be the Penn State team to break through their 10-2 ceiling and play with the big boys in the Big Ten, and it actually looked like that could be the case after the Nittany Lions went up 10-0 on a pick 6 that had 111,000 people at Beaver Stadium rocking. But then the Penn State offense just… stopped… and from there, things looked like they always do when a James Franklin team is in a huge game. It was a great win for Ohio State who really needed a big win of their own, and just another horribly frustrating loss for the Penn State fanbase. This team gets run over by Ohio State every single season in a game that largely proves Penn State is still not a serious national contender. The Nittany Lions are still in great position to make the playoffs, but now that James Franklin is 1-14 against top 5 teams in his Penn State tenure, does anybody really think they’ll go on a run even if they are in the playoffs? This was their best shot in years, and they blew it at home. Again. Yeesh.

Staying in the Big Ten, #1 Oregon took care of business at the Big House in the afternoon slate, taking down Michigan 38-17. The Wolverines actually showed some signs of life on offense, but the story of the game was Oregon masterfully slicing and dicing the Wolverines defense from the jump. The Ducks were going left, right, and straight forward through Michigan and once they had 28 points at halftime, it was clear Michigan had no real shot of keeping up with them. Oregon continues to prove they’re the clearcut #1 team at the moment but even they couldn’t escape without at least one concern, as it seems like star WR Tez Johnson is going to be out for a while with an injury. Regardless, it seems like Oregon is going to roll into Indianapolis at 12-0 and be a clear favorite in the playoffs.

In the ACC, things got off to a bit of a wonky start even before the later upsets as #5 Miami was trailing Duke by two scores well into the third quarter. But the Hurricanes did what they’ve done several times this year and came storming back to win 53-31 and move to 9-0. Cam Ward was great - 400 yards, 5 TDs - but also threw one of the worst (and most hilarious) interceptions you’ll ever see. Ward has a tendency to do something like that once a week, and while it’s funny for now when they win anyway, it has to scare the Miami staff that he’s going to do that at the worst possible time at some point moving forward. Especially since Miami’s defense cannot seem to stop giving up huge plays and a ton of points to offenses that largely aren’t even good, like Duke and Cal. The Hurricanes are good, but it’s a little difficult to view them as a team that can win an ACC Championship and then three straight games against playoff teams at this point. While Clemson was getting drilled by Louisville, #18 Pitt was also getting drilled by #20 SMU. The Mustangs dominated from the jump, are looking really good lately under new quarterback Kevin Jennings (306 yards, 2 TDs on Saturday), and are now 8-1 and 5-0 in the ACC and look to be headed to Charlotte. Absolutely incredible stuff from SMU who are the first team to ever have better than a 2-0 start in conference play after moving from a G5 league to a P5 league. They’re in playoff contention!

Elsewhere around the country, #15 Boise State cruised to an easy 56-24 win over San Diego State and remains the favorite to represent the Group of Five in the playoff. #21 Army had a last-minute scratch of their star QB Bryson Daily but handled Air Force with ease anyway. #8 Tennessee struggled to finish drives and missed three field goals but was still able to put Kentucky away 28-18. The Vols will get to tune things up against Mississippi State next week before their massive showdown against the Dawgs in Athens in two weeks.

Mark your Calendars

Get your errands done early on Tuesday because as we mentioned, we’ve got a whopper of a TV night. Assuming American democracy doesn’t implode, on Thursday we will give you a quick refresher on how the conference championship races are playing out and the potential effect on the playoff. Clemson might’ve just eliminated themselves with their second loss while it’s entirely plausible that SMU and pick any Big 12 team (hello, Colorado) will be a top 4 seed and have a first round bye. Seemingly stronger teams like Georgia or Ohio State could be shipped off to Bloomington, South Bend, or Provo to chase down the national title. This playoff is going to be wild and the results from Saturday are pointing toward a lot of pissed off fan bases and conferences. Buckle up as Tuesday could be a very consequential night for the future of the country, in more ways than one. 

Holding Ourselves Accountable

Tate’s Great Picks: Last week: 4-7 - Season Record: 41-44

L - Clemson -10.5: lost to Louisville 33-21

L/L - Texas A&M -2.5, U 44.5: lost to South Carolina 44-20

L - Tennessee -16.5: beat Kentucky 28-18

L - Army -22: beat Air Force 20-3

L - Nebraska -6.5: lost to UCLA 27-20

L/W Georgia -16.5, O 52.5: beat Florida 34-20

W - Ole Miss @ Arkansas O 53.5: Ole Miss won 63-31

W - Vanderbilt +6.5: beat Auburn 17-7

W - Oregon -15: beat Michigan 38-17

Alright folks I am admittedly slipping of late. Clemson, A&M and Nebraska were all awful picks while the Army pick was just extremely unfortunate due to their star QB being ruled out of the game an hour beforehand completely unexpectedly. The Dawgs continue to refuse to cover as big favorites and Tennessee fooled around with a Kentucky team that seems like they’ve quit half the time. But I was once again somehow profitable as my most confident picks were Oregon and Vanderbilt, both of which I viewed as borderline free money and was proven to be correct. I may just have to bet Vandy anytime they’re an underdog from here on out. I’ll also never not bet on the wagon that is Indiana again. As one final feather in my hat in what was overall a subpar week, my upset pick of the week was Texas Tech over Iowa State, so at least I finally got one of those right! But I’ve dipped under .500 for the first time this season which I refuse to allow to continue - onward and upward.

OnlyRans: Last week: 1-6 - Season Record: 36-49

L - Auburn -6.5: lost to Vandy 17-7

L - Memphis -7: lost to UTSA 44-36

L - Arkansas +7: lost to Ole Miss 63-31

L - Army -22: beat Air Force 20-3

L - Tulsa +3: lost to UAB 59-21

L - TAMU -2.5: lost to South Carolina 44-20

W - Indiana -8: beat Michigan State 47-10

Holy hell what a performance! What’s even more impressive is I inadvertently made an argument in the previews for fading each pick. Hindsight is 2020 so I’m going to pull the receipts on myself. 

Auburn: “I’m going to chalk this one up to Vegas knows something we don’t and pick the Tigers…when a line like this makes you raise an eyebrow while simultaneously going against what you want to happen, Vegas is generally right.” Vegas is full of morons.

Memphis: “Can’t say I’ve watched much UTSA this year.” Turns out I should’ve!

Ole Miss: “They’ve escaped multiple upset bids and while Vegas is adjusting their metrics to account for their offense being shitty, I still think they’re overrated.” Uh, they just dropped 63 points and finally looked like the offense we were promised the entire year, just waited until I picked them to show it.

Tulsa: “This is a matchup of two coaches who might go down as the worst hires in program history at a minimum and possibly the worst in college football this decade.” I literally said that Tulsa’s coach is one of the worst in history and still picked them.

Texas A&M: “I don’t love TAMU having to go into Williams-Brice at night because that place is going to be rocking but QB controversy be damned, this defense is good.” There’s just nothing to say on that one, just a chef’s kiss. 

The only one that I don’t fault myself for missing is Army who scratched their starting QB due to injury just before kickoff. One of the pitfalls of writing a newsletter that comes out on Thursday’s. 

Wake Forest Basketball & Georgia Football

(7-1) Georgia 34 - (4-4) Florida 20: Sooooo, yeah, we have a quarterback problem at the moment. We beat the Gators yet again but almost nobody in the fanbase seems happy because Carson Beck is just not seeing it right now. I was willing to give him some grace as a couple of his interceptions in the earlier part of the season were on his receivers, and because we’ve seen him take care of the ball very well in the past. I thought after the bye week that followed that very tough midseason stretch we had, Beck and the offense would be able to reset, watch some extensive film, and come out much sharper than they’d been before - I was dead wrong. Beck is completely in his own head at this point, he is just blatantly not seeing dropping linebackers, safeties floating towards the sidelines, and appears to be way too locked in to what he thinks a defense is going to do pre-snap. He’s now thrown three interceptions in three different games and has thrown eight INTs in the past three. There is no sugarcoating it anymore - this is a problem and if it continues, we will lose another regular season game. We don’t currently have an “easy button” to go to like we did with Brock and Ladd last year, so it’s going to come down to Beck seeing defenses better and the receivers continuing to get more separation. Something has to be figured out, and quickly.

Outside of our quarterback nearly costing us the game, I actually liked a lot of what we saw from the rest of the Dawgs on Saturday. I thought we were pretty dominant physically and while I am a bit concerned about our run game - especially from shotgun - Florida was really stacking the box for most of the day and daring us to throw it. But we were able to get yards and conversions when we needed them, and we capitalized on Florida’s mistakes in the second half. It wasn’t perfect for the defense by any means, but we seemed to keep things pretty vanilla for the most part and frankly, I’m not really worried about that unit because we know how good they can be when they’re locked in on executing a good gameplan. I think the defense is starting to really gel despite a few mistakes on Saturday - I think we’re going to be hard to score on down the stretch.

Overall, I share the same sentiments and concerns as the rest of Dawg Nation has about Beck and the offense at the moment, but I am trying to remember that even though there are things to be worried about, these are still the glory days. We’ve only lost to Florida once since 2016, and that was the fake COVID year with our 4th string quarterback. We literally never lose to Auburn, Tennessee, or Georgia Tech. We had an offensive catastrophe happening with our quarterback on Saturday and still beat our biggest rival by two touchdowns. We’ve all lived through years where our offensive catastrophe led to embarrassing losses where we were the laughing stock of our rivals for weeks, sometimes seasons at a time. I’m going to enjoy post-Florida-win week with a big ole smile on my face, and I think you should too. Go Dawgs.

PS: One final quick note. A lot was made of freshman RB Nate Frazier’s gator chomp and throat slash touchdown celebration that earned him a 15-yard penalty as well as the disappointment and rage of both his teammates and coaches, but I wanted to bring up something I haven’t seen anyone talk about: it was an homage to Todd Gurley! We saw Frazier pay his respects to past UGA greats after his first career touchdown against Clemson, and all Frazier was doing on Saturday was emulating Gurley after one of the most electric UGA touchdowns I’ve ever seen in one of the best Cocktail Parties of all time. I love this kid’s passion for UGA Football history because it’s just like mine. Lay off Frazier, Kirby. This kid is the man.

Wake Forest Basketball: Two weeks ago, Tate gave his preview of the Georgia men’s basketball team and with Wake’s season tipping off tonight against Coppin State, it’s time I do the same. The key difference between Wake & Georgia basketball is Georgia might be good while Wake is supposed to be good. Am I still salty about the two losses the Deacs took to Dawgs last year? Perhaps (read: yes), but I think Georgia is lucky they don’t have to face the Deacs this year. I take preseason fodder with a grain of salt but Wake is the consensus third-best team in the ACC behind Duke and UNC and a trendy dark horse team to win the conference and make noise in the NCAA tournament. 

A disclaimer that you should keep in the back of your mind as you read this preview and for my future writings about Wake basketball. The Deacs are not back, they have proven nothing, and I am in full-blown believe it when I see it mode. I think the staff would tell you the same thing. Wake hasn’t made the dance since 2017 when we lost in the First Four with John Collins which I don’t even count and before that, it was 2010 which is also the last time we were even ranked. Wake basketball has put me through hell and back for the better part of quick mental math my entire lifetime. I have taken the hype drug many times in my life and the comedown is brutal. I am going to root my ass off for them per usual but I am proceeding with caution. I’m tired of reading bubble watch articles and having to scoreboard watch around the conference to see if some made up metric will improve our resume if Louisville beats Clemson on the road or some shit. Can we please just beat the hell out of people and worry about seeding, not mere participation?

With that disclaimer out of the way, I am confident in saying this will be the best Wake basketball team since the 2008-09 team that had four NBA players in the starting five. Everything starts with the return of guard Hunter Sallis who is racking up accolades as a preseason All-American and 1st team All-ACC. His return and withdrawal from the NBA Draft is the sole reason there is so much hype around this team. The only question is his usage rate is going to skyrocket now that Boopie Miller is at SMU so will his efficiency suffer as a result? My guess is I sure hope not but he can score at all three levels with ease and will do this to some poor ACC center - hopefully Jalen Washington. A solid year will have him in the lottery pick conversation for next year’s draft. 

Spelling Sallis in the backcourt is billionth-year senior Cam Hildreth from England who is a bull in a china shop. Like Sallis, he can score at all three levels and is a menace on defense. He's gotten better every single year and that’s while playing most of last year with a broken wrist. Sophomore Parker Friedrichsen is the best three-point shooter on the roster and got plenty of playing time last year. He shot 36% from deep last year and that included a 2-22 cold spell to end the season. A sizable sophomore jump is expected with him. Ty-Laur Johnson will get plenty of minutes at PG after transferring in from Louisville. The number one thing to know about him is he’s fast as hell. He’s experienced and looks capable of running the offense seamlessly. Davin Cosby (transfer from Alabama) is the last name out of the backcourt to know and he’s a lethal 3-point shooter (34% last year). When he and Fredrichsen are out there together, the lane is going wide open for penetration from Sallis and/or Johnson. 

Down low is where Wake made the most improvement from last year. Efton Reid is back and is the lynchpin of the defense but after losing Andrew Carr to Kentucky, Forbes brought in Omaha Biliew from Iowa State, Tre’Von Spillers from App State, and Churchill Abass from DePaul. Biliew in particular is the most tantalizing out of the three. He’s a former top 15 recruit in the nation but couldn’t crack the lineup for the Cyclones. Like Appleby, ButterBoy ManMan, and Sallis, he has the ability to further Forbes’ legacy as the undisputed Portal King. He was injured and couldn’t practice all that much in the offseason so that’s something to monitor. Spillers & Abass provide meaningful and most importantly playable depth when Reid needs a breather or more likely gets in foul trouble. That’s a luxury Wake hasn’t had in previous years especially the last when Reid was on the bench. Overall Wake got better, tougher, and more experienced in the backcourt which is great to write on November 4th, but I want to see it come to fruition.

Lastly are the wildcards on the roster. Salisbury, NC native Juke Harris is the only freshman on the roster but is a top 100 recruit and we beat out the likes of Tennessee and Kansas for him. He’s 6’7 and even with expected freshman inconsistency, he might be too talented to keep off the floor. The other is sophomore Marqus Marion who’s a mere 6’9 wing player and got playing time last year. While he’s not expected to have as big of a role as P-Fred, if he takes the sophomore leap like we’re anticipating he will be a valuable commodity off the bench. 

As mentioned, this is the most talented and anticipated Wake team we’ve seen in the past 15 years. Forbes scheduled a meat grinder of a non conference slate and of course, there are no easy nights in the ACC. We have the talent and potential to keep up and routinely beat the big boys this year, it’s just a matter of putting it together. If not this year, then when? Let’s go beat the shit out of Coppin State and GTHC.

Texts of the Week - Carson Beck Edition

“3 picks while black face is wild”

“Death, taxes, Beck & DB’s”

“Man loves throwing into double coverage”

“Big Ass”

“Least the eye black looks sick”

“His tiktok with Hanna last weekend was pretty cool too”

“I hope they repossess the lambo”

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.