The Home Stretch: Week 10 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Happy Halloween! There’s nothing in this world that your two favorite college football writers enjoy more than the November stretch of CFB, and this year’s November slate is shaping up to be a great one. Rand is wrapping up a two week long trip, half of which was for his job as… I’m still not sure what his job is, but I think it might be “traveling insurance fraud specialist”. Regardless, you’re stuck with Tate again today but Rand was able to put his weekly picks in because there are some priorities that simply can’t be overlooked. But I don’t think you’ll need two of us to get excited about what should be an awesome weekend of college football anyway, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Top Week 10 Games to Watch

#4 Ohio State (6-1) @ #3 Penn State (7-0): OSU -4, O/U 47 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX 

It’ll be a whiteout in Happy Valley for the game of the week, and for the first time in years it feels like the Nittany Lions actually have a real shot to take down Ohio State. Vegas still favors the Buckeyes, though, largely because of the health concerns surrounding Penn State QB Drew Allar who it does sound like will be playing, but may be hobbled and a bit immobile which could prove to be a major issue against guys like Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimololoau in the OSU front seven. That’s concerning for the Nittany Lions because Ohio State’s run defense is very, very good as well, and Penn State relies heavily on its two-headed monster running back attack, Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. If Penn State can’t get things going on the ground, it could be a long day offensively for a hobbled Drew Allar trying to make everything happen by himself. Do-it-all tight end Tyler Warren has been phenomenal and the Nittany Lions hit intermediate explosive plays at the fourth highest rate in the country, but they’ll need some of their receivers to finally step up because they haven’t done so thus far this season.

With all of that said, though, Penn State isn’t out of this even if their offense struggles, because their defense is one of the best units in the country and Ohio State has their own highly concerning problems at the moment as well. The offensive line is the main one - not only has that group struggled mightily at times this season - especially last week against Nebraska - but they also just lost starting left tackle Josh Simmons for the season as well. If you haven’t watched much of Penn State linebacker Abdul Carter yet, get ready to learn all about him on Saturday because they’re going to have him teeing off on OSU QB Will Howard all game long. He’s an absolute freak of an athlete, and at the moment OSU has no clear answer on how they’re going to stop him. Just like it is for PSU, it could become a serious problem if OSU struggles to establish the run and has to rely on Will Howard dropping back as Carter tees off from the edge. Penn State can afford to drop an extra man in coverage to help against OSU’s incredible wide receivers, because it probably isn’t going to take much blitzing for Penn State to get home pretty often.

Overall, this is one of the year’s best matchups and there is a ton on the line. For Ohio State, head coach Ryan Day desperately needs a win in a big game to appease Buckeye nation, and this team in particular needs this win to live up to the “best roster we’ve ever seen” expectations that were bestowed upon them in the preseason. Losing this game, after already losing to Oregon, could put an insurmountable amount of pressure on this team moving forward. For Penn State, this is finally the real opportunity to prove that they’re on par with the Big Ten’s best, and a win here would catapult them into an almost certain playoff spot for the first time since even the 4-team playoff was introduced. We generally thing the Big Ten putting their best games at noon is lame and boring, but boy are we excited to wake up and watch this one kick off shortly after. Can’t wait.

#1 Oregon (7-0) @ Michigan (5-3): Oregon -15, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

Trust us, even we can’t believe that we’re recommending a contest involving the 2024 Michigan Wolverines as a “must watch” game, but here we are. It’s the #1 team in the country going on the road to one of the most iconic venues in sports to take on the defending national champions. Things aren’t going to swimmingly on offense for the Hawkeyes - er, Wolverines - at the moment, though. Michigan’s massive QB struggles had them all the way down to their third string, Jack Tuttle, due to the incredibly poor performance from the first two guys. Tuttle proceeded to get a concussion just a couple of games into his stint, and then retired from playing football. That sucks, and we’re always supportive of somebody making a smart decision about their health and future, but… it’s objectively funny that your QBs are so bad that you had to start your third string, just for him to straight up quit football a few weeks later. Michigan will have to circle back to either Alex Orji or Davis Warren but honestly, it doesn’t matter. Michigan needs to establish the run and hit a few explosive runs to win any game they play this season, and that’s going to be especially difficult against Oregon’s dominant defensive front - especially because the Ducks won’t have any respect or concern for Michigan beating them through the air.

For Oregon on offense, there’s not much to say right now other than this group is absolutely rolling. They put 32 on a very good Ohio State defense, and have since continued to get healthy on the offensive line and absolutely demolish the defenses they’ve seen since then. It sounds like star UM cornerback Will Johnson will either be out or limited, too, and Michigan does not have anyone to replace him that’s in his stratosphere. The only real concern here is that Oregon has only played three road games so far - against Oregon State, UCLA, and Purdue. None of those defenses are anywhere close to as good as Michigan’s is, and none of those environments can sniff what the atmosphere will be like in the Big House on Saturday. But even if Oregon struggles to hit the amount of big plays they’ve been hitting of recent, it’s not going to take too many points for them to get the job done here. This is an awesome helmet game and another opportunity for Oregon to prove they’re the #1 team in the country. We’ll be watching.

#18 Pittsburgh (7-0) @ #20 SMU (7-1): SMU -7.5, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET ACCN

Ahh yes, the game we all knew in the preseason we’d have to be locked into for P4 conference championship and playoff purposes - Pittsburgh at SMU. For all of the talk that Miami has gotten and for all the attention that Clemson is starting to garner in recent weeks, both of these teams are right there with them in the race for the ACC title and a bye in the first round of the playoff. 

This game will be decided by which quarterback plays better - for SMU, that’s Kevin Jennings, who somewhat shockingly took over the reigns earlier this season and has performed pretty well so far. He has 10 passing TDs and over 300 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, but he’s also prone to mistakes - he’s thrown 5 INTs already despite not starting until a few games into the season, and while his questionable decision making hasn’t entirely come back to bite his team quite yet, it’s going to happen if he keeps forcing throws into coverage. The exact same could be said for Pitt QB Eli Holstein, who has been surprisingly great after transferring in from Bama, but also has a tendency to make some of the worst decisions possible. Neither of these defenses are particularly good, so expect some fireworks here. There’s real playoff implications on the line for the Week 10 Pitt/SMU game, which is one of the absolutely awesome things about the new playoff format. Count us in.

Five More Games to Watch Because You’re a Sicko Like Us

San Diego State (3-4) @ #15 Boise State (6-1): BOIS -23.5, O/U 56.5 - Friday 8:00 pm ET FS1

We’ll keep this one short and sweet for you - this is a Friday night game on Boise’s famed blue turf, and is another opportunity to watch one of the most electric players - Ashton Jeanty - dominate yet again. Boise remains the favorite to be the Group of Five invitee to the inaugural 12-team playoff and even though this one is likely to turn into a blowout, it’s yet another test for the Broncos to stay focused and continue to impress the playoff committee to not only earn their spot, but to also continue to open the door to them not being locked into the twelfth seed by default. Crack a beer after a long week of work and watch Ashton Jeanty go wild - sounds like the ideal Friday to me!

Texas Tech (5-3) @ #11 Iowa State (7-0): ISU -14.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

It seems to be the week of playoff contenders taking on tricky opponents, and it’ll be no different in Ames Saturday afternoon. Iowa State has grinded their way to a few tough victories to remain unbeaten and while this is a game they should win at home, Texas Tech is a tricky team to get ready to play. The Red Raiders’ defense is absolutely horrid, but their offense can score points with the best of them. It’ll be a test for the Cyclones on defense, but even if they give up some points, QB Rocco Becht and his boys should put up plenty of their own. But this has the potential turn into a sneaky, playoff-spoiling affair in the afternoon slate that could shake up the makeup of the Big 12 race as well. Keep your eye on this one.

#13 Indiana (8-0) @ Michigan State (4-4): Indiana -7.5, O/U 51 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET Peacock

Another unexpectedly undefeated playoff contender in an interesting spot is Indiana, who continues to run through their opponents like Swiss cheese even when facing adversity. Last week, the Hoosiers hosted a tough Washington without their starting QB Kurtis Rourke but just proceeded to mostly dominate the game on both offense and defense. This IU team continues to impress in different ways each and every week, they’re far from just a one trick pony. They can run it, throw it, stop the run and turn offenses over at a solid rate. It sounds like Rourke is going to be back for this one and while that might make you think Indiana will just roll yet again (and they might), Michigan State QB Aiden Chiles is extremely dangerous in his own right. This will be a fun battle between two really good QBs, and we think the atmosphere in East Lansing during Indiana’s first really true road game of the year could cause some issues we haven’t seen for the Hoosiers quite yet.

#10 Texas A&M (7-1) @ South Carolina (4-3): TAMU -2.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC

The SEC primetime game this week is… at 4-3 South Carolina? Yes, because the 7-1 Texas A&M Aggies come to town in the trappiest of all trap games. It sounds like Marcel Reed is going to get the nod at QB for the Aggies after coming off the bench last week against LSU, rushing for three touchdowns and coming back to win, and while we think that’s probably the right move we also aren’t so sure things are going to go as swimmingly against this tough defensive front for South Carolina - especially because they’re certainly gameplanning for him all week which LSU did not have the luxury to do. Regardless, we don’t think it’s going to take a ton of points from the A&M offense to get the job done here, because South Carolina’s offense remains pretty bad, especially as a passing attack. It’s possible that QB LaNorris Sellers’ ankle is a little more healed up after another week of recovery which makes him more dangerous on the ground, but similar to when Texas A&M is on offense, the Gamecocks are probably going to be running into the brick wall that is A&M’s front seven over and over again hoping for the best. It isn’t going to be the most explosive game you’ve ever seen, but it has major SEC title and playoff implications for A&M while being a massive opportunity for South Carolina and head coach Shane Beamer to prove they’re still taking steps to compete with the best in the SEC. It’ll be an awesome environment - we’ll be tuned in.

Louisville (5-3) @ #11 Clemson (6-1): Clemson -10.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ESPN

It’ll be a fun night for ACC fans as this game will be happening simultaneously with the SMU/Pitt game, and even more conference title and playoff implications will be further-answered in Clemson on Saturday evening. The Tigers are coming off of a bye while this will be the seventh straight game without a break for the Cards, a stretch that has included tough game after tough game. We’re interested to see if the offensive firepower we’ve seen from Clemson since the UGA game can continue against a truly quality opponent, because if there’s any rust Clemson needs to work out after not having played for two weeks, UL head coach Jeff Brohm is the guy who’s going to take advantage of it. The Cardinals don’t do anything exceptionally well, but Brohm’s teams hardly ever do anything poorly and that’s the case yet again this season. By the time we hit midnight on Saturday we’re going to have a much clearer picture on the ACC title race - Clemson coming out with a win here as will put them in phenomenal position. But we’re not so sure it’ll be that easy.

Trivia Question

In the last decade, how many times has the game between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions been decided by one possession (eight points or fewer)?

Tate’s Great Picks (37-37)

#1 Oregon (7-0) @ Michigan (7-0): Oregon -15, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

Pick Oregon -15: Oregon is absolutely wrecking everybody at the moment and Michigan still cannot do anything offensively except hit a few big run plays per game. Oregon’s defensive front is elite and if they take Michigan’s run game away, this could get ugly very fast. Ducks roll.

Vanderbilt (5-3) @ Auburn (3-5): Auburn -6.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:45 pm ET SECN

Pick Vanderbilt +6.5: Are you seriously going to give me 6.5 points for Vanderbilt - a team that beat Alabama and just took Texas to the wire last week - to cover? This line weirds me out a bit but there’s no way I’m not hammering it. Vandy Vandy Vandy.

UCLA (2-5) @ Nebraska (5-3): Nebraska -6.5, O/U 40.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET BTN

Pick Nebraska -6.5: UCLA is not good at all, and I think playing decently well against a very good Ohio State last weekend may provide a jolt of confidence for this Cornhusker offense. The defense is still playing very well too, so I think Nebraska covers a touchdown at home here.

Ole Miss (6-2) @ Arkansas (5-3): Ole Miss -7, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick O 53.5: Yes, Ole Miss is led by its defense and its offense has been struggling a bit recently, but Arkansas’ defense is not very good at all and Ole Miss will be looking to scheme open receivers - something Lane Kiffin is elite at - to try to get themselves rolling offensively down the stretch of the season. I won’t say I’m expecting a “shootout”, but I think this one comfortably clears the over.

Air Force (1-6) @ #22 Army (7-0): ARMY -22, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET CBS

Pick Army -22: Army is simply a wagon and Air Force is horrid. This is easy money, folks (note: I am not a financial advisor).

Kentucky (3-5) @ #7 Tennessee (6-1): Tennessee -16.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 7:45 pm ET SECN

Pick Tennessee -16.5: Tennessee’s defense is very good and Kentucky’s offense is very bad. I think the second half against Alabama will spark some juice for this Vols offense and even if they don’t score a ton of points, I think they put Kentucky - who I think will hardly score at all - away with ease.

#10 Texas A&M (7-1) @ South Carolina (4-3): TAMU -2.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC

Pick TAMU -2.5, U 44.5: I think both of these run-heavy, time-wasting offenses are going to both struggle against the solid front seven on each opposing sides keeping this game short and low scoring. But TAMU is just better and has a ton to play for here - I think the Aggies are able to grind their way to a win here.

Louisville (5-3) @ #11 Clemson (6-1): Clemson -10.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ESPN

Pick Clemson -10.5: Clemson’s offense has been rolling ever since the UGA game and we all know the defense is always tough. Louisville is a tricky team to play but as the week has gone on, I’ve started to feel like the Tigers just might smoke the Cards at home here.

Florida (4-3) vs #2 Georgia (6-1): UGA -16.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ABC

Pick UGA -16.5, O 52.5: Don’t be alarmed if Florida makes this somewhat close for a quarter or so - the Dawgs are going to do what they always do and beat this team into submission as the game wears on yet again. I think Lagway can put a few points on the board to help with the over, and I think the Dawgs explode offensively in the second half to cover both the spread and the game total with ease. Georgia 44 - Florida 16.

OnlyRans (35-43)

Disclaimer: As you’ll read below, I wasn’t able to watch much of any CFB last weekend and haven’t done my standard research, reading, and podcast listening to gear up for this weekend. I haven’t even read what Tate wrote above and am simply scanning the ESPN website looking at the schedule and picking games off educated guessing and vibes. This kind of reminds me of last year when Tate was doing so horribly at picking games he asked his girlfriend (now fiance) to pick games for him.

Vanderbilt (5-3) @ Auburn (3-5): AUB -6.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:45 pm ET SECN

Pick Auburn -6.5: I’m guessing the entire country will be all over Vandy on this one because of the line and unless you’re a terrorist, who in the hell would cheer for Auburn over Vandy? I’m going to chalk this one up to Vegas knows something we don’t and pick the Tigers. I’d love to be wrong here but like the Texas A&M - Notre Dame or Michigan - Michigan State games from earlier this year, when a line like this makes you raise an eyebrow while simultaneously going against what you want to happen, Vegas is generally right. 

Memphis (6-1) @ UTSA (3-5): MEM -7, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN2

Pick Memphis -7: Can’t say I’ve watched much UTSA this year but I know they’ve fallen off a cliff since their glory days once Frank Harris left. Memphis has a high-octane offense and is still trying to hunt down the AAC title and G5 playoff bid. Tigers again. 

#19 Ole Miss (6-2) @ Arkansas (5-3): MISS -7, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Arkansas +7: Ole Miss is quite frankly lucky to only have 2 losses. They’ve escaped multiple upset bids and while Vegas is adjusting their metrics to account for their offense being shitty, I still think they’re overrated. Razorbacks QB Taylen Green has been a revelation in Fayetteville and think he pops off here and might even pull the upset at home. Woo Pig. 

Air Force (1-6) @ #22 Army (7-0): ARMY -22, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET CBS

Pick Army -22: My wagon is back from their bye and now host the worst Air Force team we’ve seen in decades. 3+ touchdowns be damned, I’m taking Army over and over and over. 

Tulsa (3-5) @ UAB (1-6): UAB -3, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 2:30 pm ET ESPN+

Pick Tulsa +3: My other wagon is also back off their bye and now I can fade UAB. This is a matchup of two coaches who might go down as the worst hires in program history at a minimum and possibly the worst in college football this decade. Kevin Wilson and Trent Dilfer are living on borrowed time but at least Wilson had coached CFB before, he’s just not very good at it. 

#10 Texas A&M (7-1) @ South Carolina (4-3): TAMU -2.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC

Pick TAMU -2.5: I don’t love TAMU having to go into Williams-Brice at night because that place is going to be rocking but QB controversy be damned, this defense is good. Gig em.

#13 Indiana (8-0) @ Michigan State (4-4): IU -8, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET Peacock

Pick Indiana -8: I don’t think Indiana has won a game by less that double digits and expect that to continue against a Michigan State team that was last seen fighting a horrible Michigan team that beat their ass. Even without Kurtis Rourke, I still like the Hoosiers.

Upset Call of the Week

The rules for this section are simple. We’re both going to pick a double-digit underdog to pull off the upset outright. This does not count for or against our betting totals above (not that it’d matter for Rand) but it’s simply for bragging rights.

Rand: Florida +16.5 over Georgia :)

Tate: Texas Tech +14.5 over Iowa State 

Georgia

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party - #2 Georgia (6-1) vs Florida (4-3): UGA -16.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ABC

Florida has been experiencing yet another season of turmoil and embarrassment, have only beaten the Dawgs once in the past seven years, while the Dawgs continue to roll as arguably the best program in the country yet again. And yet, my hatred for Florida Football remains as strong as ever and my desire to obliterate them on the field every Halloween weekend can never be understated. This week is no different.

When looking at the current state of this Florida team, a couple of things are very clear: they’ve been playing their best football of the season over the past couple of games, and freshman QB DJ Lagway continues to get improve and makes the Gators’ offense much more dangerous than it was under Graham Mertz. We all know it by now, but the one thing that Kirby Smart defenses have often struggled with mobile quarterbacks and while Lagway is by no means Jalen Milroe, he does have more than enough athleticism to extend plays with his legs and make things happen downfield when things break down in the secondary. The Dawgs’ defense won’t be able to solely focus on confusing Lagway pre-snap like they did with Quinn Ewers and the Texas offensive line - that’ll be part of the plan, sure, but it’ll be imperative that our EDGE and inside backers are playing disciplined ball to keep. UF’s best receiver Tre Wilson was ruled out on Wednesday as well, and he was really the only weapon that would actually scare the Dawgs’ defensive staff. Don’t let Lagway move around and play backyard football - keep him in the pocket, make him deliver over and over again, and we’ll be fine.

Offensively, the story remains the same as it’s been all season. We have got to find a way to play clean, turnover-free football where either a successful run game is setting up the passing game, or an on-point, in rhythm Carson Beck and his group of receivers spread the defense out to allow us to start gashing on the ground. We can’t keep having halves of football, strings of possessions where we struggle to run the ball while Beck and his receivers seem completely out of sync. In our two biggest games of the season so far against Alabama and Texas, Beck and leading receiver Arian Smith have been on a different page than each other which led to a massive interception in each game. After a bye week - our second bye week of the season - that can no longer happen. Florida’s pass rush has been borderline nonexistent for most of the season, and their defense has a habit of losing effort when things aren’t looking good for them. We need to come out ready to go offensively. Punch them in the mouth early, open things up for yourself, and see how they respond. We’ve gotta quit dilly dallying around for long stretches of time, because the longer you allow this game to stay close, the more the Gators become with Lagway at the helm.

Overall, though, this is a game I am expecting the Dawgs to continue to make the statement that they started making in the Texas game: we are still, at least arguably, the best team in the country. I talked a lot about how it was surprising how quickly the country seemed to forget who the Dawgs both before and after the Texas game, but the situation we find ourselves in is something else people seem to have forgotten about. Each of the past three seasons, we’ve had slow, sleepy, lackluster performances in the early part of the season. And then we hit the annual bye week before the Florida game, come back out against the Gators, and proceed to start demolishing everybody on our schedule down the stretch of the season. It starts on Saturday against our most hated rival - let’s keep reminding folks what Georgia Football does when it matters most. F*ck Florida.

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: I feel like I haven’t been able to breathe since last Thursday after we sent the Week 9 Preview. After my incredibly fun wedding from last weekend and going straight into a ridiculous 5-day work event in Phoenix, I haven’t been able to catch up my breath figuratively or literally given the allergic reaction I had at a work dinner earlier this week. I’m fine but I’ve had three allergic reactions in my life and all three have come at work events which is funny, scary, and annoying all at the same time. I’ll be back in ATL this weekend where I’ll watch copious amounts of football and see Tate for the first time since Week 1. Wake football and basketball content is coming your way in due time whether you like it or not. Now if you’ll excuse me I’m going to get on this flight back to ATL and pass the hell out for 4 hours.

Tate: We’re gearing up for the stretch run of the season - which as a Dawgs fan means many more games than just the regular season - so after the trip to Austin two weeks ago, I’m saving some energy and money by watching the WLOCP from Atlanta this year. I’ll be there next year, though, before they temporarily have to move the game for two years due to renovations at the stadium in Jacksonville. Hopefully Florida is a real program by then (but not actually).

Trivia answers: From 2014 to 2023, five games between Ohio State and Penn State were decided by one possession, and we’re expecting Saturday’s matchup to be no different.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.