Everyone has a Vice: Week 9 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We’ve been doing you all a disservice and now we must own up to our mistakes and God willing, make amends with you. We haven’t been paying enough attention to the midweek Conference USA games and as a result, telling you about the hidden gems of football games that are happening right under our noses. If you were lucky, smart, or likely bored enough to catch them this week, we thank you for your service. For the uninitiated, you missed quite a spectacle.

On Tuesday night, the two-win FIU Panthers temporarily rebranded themselves as Vice U and hosted Sam Houston at Pitbull Stadium where they parked a yacht on the sideline for people to watch the game from. Nothing in that sentence is made up including a final score of 10-7. Simultaneously, one-win UTEP was in Ruston to face Louisiana Tech. UTEP’s starting QB Sklyler Locklear went down with an injury early in the game so they had to turn to backup QB JP Pickles. Pickles attempted two passes the entire game and completed one for 1 yard. Lastly, on Wednesday night we were treated to the biggest G5 upset of the year. 0-6 Kennesaw State was looking for their first FBS win ever but was four touchdown underdogs to 5-0 Liberty who hadn’t lost a regular season game in two years. After an incomplete hail mary attempt by Liberty, Kennesaw State fans and students stormed the field and started celebrating. The refs reviewed the play and put 1 second back on the clock and cleared the field. Liberty’s lateral attempts were awful, then Kennesaw State stormed the field again, and now we are saved from a potentially undefeated Liberty from being one of the worst playoff entrants in history. Thank you Kennesaw, thank you midweek CUSA football, and thank you Pitbull. Dalé.

Top Week 8 Games to Watch

#17 Boise State (5-1) @ UNLV (6-1): BOIS -3.5, O/U 65.5 - Friday 10:30 pm ET FOX 

Is this the most anticipated regular season Group of Five game ever? There are certainly memorable G5 matchups that come to mind like the Kaepernick-Kellen Moore upset of 2010 or the 2022 App State Troy Hail Mary game that was buffed up thanks to College GameDay being there. Aside from that Kaepernick upset which knocked Boise State out of national championship contention, there hasn’t been a regular season G5 game with greater playoff implications. We have the expansion of the playoff to thank for that because if this game happened a year ago we’d have this in the section below imploring you to watch this underrated G5 game at 10:30 pm on a Friday. We can also thank Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman campaign and UNLV being in the spotlight thanks to their starting QB quitting 4 games into the season. The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat for the G5 playoff spot. Army and Navy are lurking but their SOS is abhorrent and unless either one knocks off Notre Dame, it’s likely they won’t have the resume to jump the winner of the game assuming everyone wins out. 

We all know the deal with Boise State’s RB and Heisman frontrunner Ashton Jeanty so we won’t harp on him too much. Just know that last game against Hawai’i, he rushed 31 times for 217 yards and it lowered his average yards/rush to 9.9 yards. He’s still averaging 60 more yards/game than the dude in second place (Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson) and is averaging more rushing yards/game than all but 20 FBS teams. He’s coming for you, Barry. Aside from Jeanty, keep your eye on QB Maddux Madsen. He’s quietly been one of the most efficient passers in the nation and owns a tidy 12 TD to 2 INT stat line. Of course, so much pressure and attention is on Jeanty, but it’s nice to know he can deliver in passing situations which might be needed in this game because…

UNLV owns one of the best rushing defenses in the nation. Of course, they haven’t seen someone like Jeanty yet but they’ve held some prolific rushing offenses in check - namely Kansas, Syracuse, and Oregon State. Head coach Barry Odom is one of the best defensive minds in the game and will have some surprises for the Boys in Blue, but Jeanty is so good that it might not matter. Offensively, UNLV’s WR Ricky White III is 2nd nationally with 9 TD catches but more impressively has 3 punt blocks to his name on the year. That’s more than any other team in the country except…Florida State? So congrats to Ricky and FSU who just received their first compliment of the year from this publication. Stay up for this game because you won’t be disappointed.

#12 Notre Dame (6-1) v #24 Navy (6-0): ND -13, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ABC in East Rutherford, NJ 

Nothing would be more American than Navy knocking the preeminent Catholic institution out of the national picture. After all, religious intolerance is what led Notre Dame to become the behemoth they are today but that’s a story for another time. Just know that Knute Rockne was a genius marketer before marketing was a thing. This is the first time since the Rockne days that this matchup has had such an impact on the playoff picture instead of being the old-timey, you should watch this because you’re patriotic and/or Catholic game. Again, you can thank the expanded playoff for that. Compared to Army, Navy owns the best victory of the two with a beatdown of Memphis but aside from that, their schedule has been pretty light. That being said, they are demolishing teams and putting up huge offensive numbers. This isn’t your dad’s Navy triple option team, much less one from 10 years ago. QB Blake Horvath has attempted at least 9 passes in every game this year and has 10 TDs to his name. Of course, he can run the triple option too, and is the team's leading rusher. He’s got an army (lol) of backs behind him but keep your eye on FB Alex Tecza who has 7 TDs on the year. Besides that, you know what you’re getting with this Navy offense. Defensively they’ve played bend don’t break D. They give up yards but have been nails in the redzone. Notably, the team that leads the nation in redzone defense? Army. 

For the Irish, the script remains the same. If they win out, they’ll be in the playoff. Any loss along the way will eliminate them. Never count out a Marcus Freeman coach team stubbing their toe as we witnessed just a few weeks ago with NIU. But as always, Notre Dame has a significant talent advantage. Their defense is great and when they can run the ball effectively, the pressure gets taken off of QB Riley Leonard literally and figuratively. The rest of the noon slate on Saturday is lackluster so we recommend checking out this one, at least for the flyover and pageantry. 

#8 LSU (6-1) @ #14 Texas A&M (6-1): TAMU -2.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC

LSU heads to College Station to take on A&M in a game that could, somehow, be a preview of the SEC Championship game in six weeks. Both teams are undefeated in conference play and this game has become an unsung rivalry in the league, having largely been played on rivalry week in November over the past decade until Texas joined the league this year and pushed this game up to mid-October. Both of these teams are still flying under the radar at the moment, but both have very real shots of being playoff teams here over halfway through the season.

For LSU, this is the most interesting test this team has had to date. The Ole Miss game two weeks ago was obviously a banger and a huge win for the Tigers, but this A&M pass rush provides a challenge unlike anything LSU has seen to date. QB Garrett Nussmeier has been phenomenal when facing pressure so far this season, constantly evading pressure and stepping up in the pocket to make throws, but he hasn’t done that against guys like A&M’s Nic Scourton. Our prediction is that LSU may largely abandon the run game in hopes of protecting Nuss enough to attack the Aggies’ secondary which is the weakness of the unit. LSU’s defense has improved in recent weeks too, which is encouraging.

But this game will probably come down to which version of A&M QB Conner Weigman we get. The former 5-star looked unbelievable after returning from injury to route Missouri two weeks ago, but he also looked pathetically horrible against Notre Dame to kick the season off in Week 1. LSU is likely to score some points here, so the Aggies are going to need Good Weigman to show up to keep up with them, because if Bad Weigman shows up they really have no shot. This is a clash of styles in a game that has more implications than you probably think it does - if both teams were to win out from here, they’d be in the SEC Championship and would likely be guaranteed to be in the playoff. Crazy, right? Count us in.

Nine More Games to Watch Because You’re a Sicko Like Us

Syracuse (5-1) @ #19 Pittsburgh (6-0): PITT -6, O/U 62.5 - Thursday 7:30 pm ET ESPN

Yes, both Pittsburgh and Syracuse are very much in the race for the ACC title and while 4th & Forever’s official stance is “that’s awesome” we’re a bit afraid that Florida State might sue us for saying so. Regardless, this is one of the weekend’s more interesting matchups due to the largely unexpected nature of how both of these teams’ seasons have gone thus far. Pittsburgh brought in Alabama transfer Eli Holstein - who was like 5th on their depth chart last year - to play under center and he has somehow turned into one of the conference’s best QBs halfway through the year. But he may have to keep up with Syracuse who has been rolling offensively behind QB Kyle McCord and a plethora of talented receivers. You may not realize it quite yet, but this game could go a long way in playing a role in the ACC title race now that everyone is expecting a Clemson/Miami matchup as an inevitability. This is going to be high-scoring and very fun on a Thursday - you can put Rams/Vikings on a second TV if you want.

Rutgers (4-3) @ USC (3-4): USC -14, O/U 56.5 - Friday 11:00 pm ET FOX

The combined record of these two teams in their past three games: 0-6. Are we going to break this game down further? Absolutely not, it’s only on here because I want to go inside baseball on why this game is at 11 pm ET. Back in April when FOX and the Big 10 made the conference schedule, the FOX TV executives put this game on Friday night after Game 1 of the World Series because they made a bet that the Yankees or Dodgers would be in the series. They lucked out, got both, and now get to swim like Scrooge McDuck in the disproportionate number of advertisement dollars they’ll make from both home audiences staying tuned in for an otherwise nondescript Friday night Big 10 game. Are you a better human knowing this? No, but you’re more informed and what’s the point of writing this newsletter if we can’t provide you useless information? 

Washington (4-3) @ #13 Indiana (7-0): IU -6.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET BTN

In unquestionably one of the weekend’s most interesting matchups, the surprisingly competitive Washington Huskies travel to Bloomington to take on the #13 (???) Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana will be without starting QB (and a Tate favorite) Kurtis Rourke, who will be replaced by Tayven Jackson. Jackson went 7/8 for 91 yards and 2 TDs last week in relief of Rourke which is obviously encouraging, but when he had the chance to start last season he also threw for 2 TDs while throwing… 5 interceptions. The risk of dumb turnovers is concerning here for the storybook Hoosiers, especially against a Washington team who is playing incredibly smart, mistake-free football of late. We’ll have our eyes on this one as we expect it to be a really good game, and obviously, Indiana very much remains in the thick of the Big Ten - and therefore College Football Playoff - race.

The South’s Oldest Rivalry: UNC (3-4) @ Virginia (4-3): UVA -4, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET The CW

Not to be confused with the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry which is between Georgia and Auburn, this UNC and UVA matchup is tied for the second-longest played matchup in the FBS. Well technically, Georgia and Auburn are one occurrence above them given they’ve already played this year but I’ll let the UNC and UGA fans hissy fit over technicalities like they do over which public institution is older. I promise you, no one outside of Athens or Chapel Hill cares but wars have been waged over less so who am I to judge? Genuine question for UNC and UVA fans: do you even care or much less consider this a rivalry? Or is this a wine and cheese thing where you can flaunt your victory in the Deloitte boardroom? You must if it’s important enough for the ACC to protect it on an annual basis instead of giving it the every other year treatment. 

Any…who, UNC has the chance to play spoiler after UVA stunned the #10 ranked Tar Heels last year in Chapel Hill. No, Virginia isn’t ranked but they are favored which says a lot about the trajectories of these two programs. Virginia is coming off a somewhat competitive loss to Clemson and owns a nice win over Boston College and of course, the comeback win over the Deacs while UNC has endured an emotional and tumultuous season on and off the field, losers of 4 straight. Expect a shootout here as one team is going to have to stop the other on offense and neither defense has shown any interest in doing so. 

#11 BYU (7-0) @ UCF (3-4): UCF -2, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

The Cardiac Cougs head to the Bounce House to face UCF and head coach Gus Malzahn. BYU opened as a 1.5-point favorite but the line has moved to UCF being favored. The only injury that could swing the game this much is to BYU QB Jake Retzlaff and we haven’t seen anything to suspect he won’t be playing. The real reason for this line movement is the QB change UCF just made and the general distrust of BYU by the fellas in Vegas. KJ Jefferson was the preseason Big 12 Newcomer of the Year as a transfer from Arkansas after a long and fruitful career in Fayetteville. Last week, Malzahn benched him in favor of Jacurri Brown who is a transfer from Miami. Brown couldn’t pass the ball to save his life against Iowa State last weekend but rushed for 154 yards, 2 TDs, including a 67-yard TD run. Brown is the better runner but a much worse passer than Jefferson, but that doesn’t matter to Malzahn. He will run the ball every play if it’s working and even though the Knights are 3-4 on the year, he’ll keep doing it. UCF has the third-best rushing attack in the nation behind the usual suspect Army and of course, Boise State. BYU will have their hands full with Brown and RB RJ Harvey if they want to remain undefeated. If they lose here, they’ll need to win out to make the playoff but that’d give arch-rival Utah the opportunity to put the dagger through their season two weeks from now. 

#21 Missouri (6-1) @ #15 Alabama (5-2): ALA -16.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ABC

The reeling Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off of the most tumultuous three-week stretch in recent memory and now have to host a ranked Missouri team in a game that will largely be season-defining for both squads. The line has moved way up because not only is Mizzou’s star running back Nate Noel already ruled out, but QB Brady Cook is now doubtful to play as well, so we won’t waste too much time on breaking this game down because Bama should now smoke this team at home. But… what if they don’t? What if a banged up and kinda bad Missouri team hangs around with Alabama in Tuscaloosa? The Bama fanbase is already in a collectively horrible mental state after the Vandy loss, the South Carolina debacle at home, and the road loss to Tennessee. The defense is, uh, kinda horrible on the back end and teams are learning that a sort of banged up Jalen Milroe is entirely ineffective if he’s forced to sit in the pocket and make plays. We think that Bama should roll here, but we’re extremely interested in what happens if they don’t. We’ve got eyes on this one.

#3 Penn State (6-0) @ Wisconsin (5-2): PSU -6.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET NBC

What in tarnation is going on in Madison? Since when are college football teams allowed to improve as the season goes on and perform better than our expectations? We left Wisconsin for dead after starting QB Tyler Van Dyke was lost for the year during the Bama came and subsequently got blown out by USC the next week. Since then they have blown out Purdue 52-6, Rutgers 42-7, and Northwestern 23-3. Combined record of those three? Don’t ask but teams don’t normally flip a switch into being an offensive juggernaut unless they’re sitting on a Cam Newton or Johnny Football type of QB, especially not at Wisconsin. Don’t be alarmed, Wisconsin is not sitting on the next Lamar Jackson or anything but backup turned starter Braedyn Locke has been serviceable which is all Wisconsin has needed. More importantly, they’ve seemingly found their next great running back to add to their otherworldly lineage. Since the Alabama loss in Week 3, RB Tawee Walker has racked up 8 TDs, averaged over 6 yards/carry, and has broken the 100-yard mark twice since becoming the feature back. An average quarterback, fortuitous schedule, and workhorse of a running back is a great recipe for a midseason comeback but now the real test comes with Penn State. 

Drew Allar will be gunning for former walk-on tight end who had that ridiculous 17-catch, 224-yard receiving day against USC a few weeks ago. RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are the bell cows out of the backfield while their defense remains one of the best in the conference. Wisconsin has its work cut out for them but don’t sleep on the Badgers, at night, in Camp Randall, especially if it’s close at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy: Michigan State (4-3) @ Michigan (4-3): MICH -3.5, O/U 40.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET BTN

Another ‘not be confused with rivalry’ but don’t confuse this matchup with Wisconsin and Minnesota who play for Paul Bunyan’s Axe and sorry Georgia, Auburn, UNC, and UVA but the Badgers and Gophers take the cake for the longest college football rivalry. What’s the obsession with Paul Bunyan in college football? He’s Canadian! Wait, no he’s from Westwood, CA? No, he has a statue in Bangor, Maine. I don’t know where the hell this made up dude is from and his Wikipedia is too long. Can we just assign mythical figures to college football entities now? Well, Pandora’s Box is already open. Take your pick between UNC, FSU, Tennessee, Lincoln Riley, and Brian Kelly as Icarus, Vanderbilt as Atlas, Hugh Freeze & Lane Kiffin as Hades, NC State and Iowa as The Myth of Sisyphus and Eternal Punishment, and Curt Cignetti as King Midas.

Anyway, we do somewhat regret suggesting in an official capacity that you watch this game, but we are intrigued because we are sick, sick people. Michigan is absolutely awful, and while its defense is the reason they’re able to hang around in most games, now their most talented player in CB Will Johnson is hurt and may be out or at least limited in this one. That could lead to some serious issues on Saturday because Michigan State QB Aiden Chiles is the real deal. He’s made a lot of terrible decisions throwing into coverage this season, but he’s cut down on them in recent weeks and every weeks makes a few throws that make you say “holy sh*t that guy is good.” This is a big matchup for both teams, not only because it’s a rivalry where players sometimes get charged with assault, but because for Michigan this could be a season-ending loss while for Sparty, this could be a win that kicks the Jonathan Smith era into gear much quicker than we expected. Don’t expect good football - expect entertainment.

Cincinnati (5-2) @ Colorado (5-2): COLO -5.5, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 10:30 pm ET ESPN

If you think we’re only including this because writing about Colorado and Deion are good for algorithm purposes, well, you’re only half right because both Cincinnati and Colorado have only one conference loss over halfway through the year and are very much alive for the Big 12 title and therefore a playoff berth. We won’t bore you with any reasons on why you should watch Cincinnati because while they have been improving, they’re incredibly boring and we know you’ll be here for the Buffs. Deion’s boys have been remarkably better in recent weeks, especially on the defensive side where it initially looked like they’d be pathetic yet again but now look like a formidable squad that can actually help Sheduer and his receivers win games rather than making this program look more like a TV show than a football team. Frankly, it’s going to be midnight on Saturday and one of the most interesting teams in the country may be in a close game with real implications on the line. Do you really need us to give you more reasons to tune in here?

Bar Beatdowns

This group of games is called Bar Beatdowns because if you find yourself at a local bar this weekend one of these games will likely be on. That’s because all of these games involve a top-ranked playoff contender who’s favored by 2+ touchdowns. We expect them to romp but on the off chance they don’t we want to keep you abreast of the storylines to follow and arm you with nerdy facts to bore your friend group and significant other with.

Nebraska (5-2) @ #4 Ohio State (5-1): OSU -25.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX

Reasons to watch: Six days ago we might’ve had this game on our top games to watch but thanks to Indiana exposing Nebraska as the fraud they are and have been for the past 25 years, it’s been relegated to a Bar Beatdown. Ohio State has had 2 weeks to simmer on the Oregon loss and now welcomes a Nebraska defense that just let the Hoosiers hang 56 on them. The only two things to watch here is if Nebraska is able to keep this close it’ll be because QB Dylan Raiola breaks his freshman slump and lives up to his billing against one of the best defenses in the country and/or Ohio State is still hungover and salty about the Oregon loss. Neither is expected. 

#20 Illinois (6-1) @ #1 Oregon (7-0): ORE -21.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

Reasons to watch: Speaking of Oregon, they host #20 ranked Illinois who is fresh off a 21-7 victory over Michigan in the ugliest uniforms we’ve ever seen. Actually, that’s not true, there are worse so recency bias is at play here and FSU and UNC haven’t brought out their black alternates yet. Anyways, Illinois’ only flop is a loss in Happy Valley but if they somehow knock off the Ducks, there’s a chance we’re talking about an 11-1 Illinois and playoff contender in the same sentence. Save us from that possibility, Ducks. 

#5 Texas (6-1) @ #25 Vanderbilt (5-2): TEX -18.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 4:15 pm ET SECN

Reasons to watch: Is this the biggest game in Vanderbilt program history? Many pundits think so and God help us if we did enough research into Vanderbilt football to accurately opine, so we will follow the groupthink like sheep. A loss to Georgia last weekend doesn’t change the fact that Vanderbilt has a non-zero chance to knock off two top 5 teams in the same season. The problem is, they won’t be catching Texas by surprise like they did Alabama and the CFB universe. The construction zone stadium will be rocking (even though it might be half burnt orange) but keep your eyes on this one just in case Vandy breaks the space-time continuum. 

Florida State (1-6) @ #6 Miami (7-0): MIA -21, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Reasons to watch: To put it simply these teams hate each other and may very well start brawling at midfield at some point during this game because the FSU players might just get fed up with their season as they get trounced by a Miami team that will be assuredly talking shit all evening. We’re only half kidding, but in all seriousness, this is a real test for Miami who has been struggling mightily defensively in recent weeks and still seems to be trying to prove themselves as a legitimate contender despite their 7-0 start. Cam Ward is somewhat quietly having a Heisman-caliber season and while dominating a 1-6 team may not typically be the way to improve he and his team’s stock, winning this rivalry game in convincing fashion could go a long way in telling us who this Miami team actually is. On the FSU end… uhh, we wish you good luck and good health.

Trivia Questions

In 2007, Navy beat Notre Dame to end the longest streak of consecutive victories of one team over another in CFB history at 43 consecutive wins. Who were the head coaches of Notre Dame and Navy? What’s the longest active win streak of one FBS team over another at 28 wins? Hint: both teams are currently in the top 25. (answers at the end of the newsletter)

Tate’s Great Picks (36-30)

Syracuse (5-1) @ #19 Pittsburgh (6-0): PITT -6, O/U 62.5 - Thursday 7:30 pm ET ESPN

Pick Syracuse +6: I have no problems with this year’s Pitt team, but QB Eli Holstein often makes some very questionable decisions when throwing the ball into coverage which is going to come back to bite them at some point. I think that may be tonight - giving the ball to this very explosive and efficient Syracuse offense is a dangerous game. It’s October, the season of Orange. Give me Cuse.

#20 Illinois (6-1) @ #1 Oregon (7-0): ORE -21.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

Pick Illinois +21.5: Oregon has a habit of struggling a bit in the redzone which means they could kick a few extra field goals rather than scoring touchdowns, even if they’re largely taking care of business. I think Illinois can hit a few big plays to keep this one close for a while, and I love that a 3 touchdown Oregon win would still cover here.

Michigan State (4-3) @ Michigan (4-3): MICH -3.5, O/U 40.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET BTN

Pick Michigan State +3.5: Michigan absolutely sucks on offense and has zero quarterback presence at the moment, while Michigan State QB Aiden Chiles has looked incredible at times this year and will almost certainly be in the NFL in a couple of years. The QBs will matter here.

#12 Notre Dame (6-1) v #24 Navy (6-0): ND -13, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ABC in

Pick Navy +13, U 52.5: Navy is a wagon, and I still don’t think Notre Dame is very good. Navy’s triple option will keep the possessions limited here to keep this game under - and I don’t think ND can completely shut it down either. Let’s go America.

Florida State (1-6) @ #6 Miami (7-0): MIA -21, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Miami -21: Florida State just sucks, man. Miami’s primary weakness at the moment is their secondary giving up big plays, but time and time again we see FSU incapable of hitting big plays even when they’re there for the taking. Mario Cristobal, a Miami native, will have no issue kicking FSU while they’re down here either. Give me the Canes.

UL Monroe (5-1) @ South Alabama (3-4): USA -7.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 5:00 pm ET ESPN+

Pick ULM +7.5, U 45.5: Going to take a shot in the dark here - I love what ULM has been able to do in keeping games short, limiting possessions with their offense and playing stifling defense. And dammit, they just keep winning. South Al is better than their record so while I’m not guaranteeing a ULM win, I’m expecting a 14-10 type of game here where either squad can come out on top. Go Warhawks.

OnlyRans (27-39)

Washington (4-3) @ #13 Indiana (7-0): IU -6.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET BTN

Pick Indiana -6.5: Army & UAB are on byes this week so I’m going with my honorary third wagon in Indiana. Washington has one of the worst rushing defenses in the conference and don’t think they can keep up with the Hoosiers in Bloomington which will be bumping with College GameDay in town. 

Georgia Tech (5-3) @ Virginia Tech (5-3): VT -10, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ACCN

Pick Virginia Tech -10, U 51.5: Georgia Tech will be without starting QB Haynes King in this one so the analysis can stop there. Give me the Hokies and RB Brayshul Tuten who just broke the school record for rushing yards in a single game. If you’re going to fade me, keep in mind I am 2-9 in betting game totals this year. Alright, now the analysis is over.

Arkansas (4-3) @ Mississippi State (1-6): ARK -6.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 12:45 pm ET SECN

Pick Mississippi State +6.5: Mississippi State has been massive underdogs in three straight games to Texas, Georgia, and TAMU and covered every time including mere 10 point losses to the Bulldogs and Aggies. Freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. (hell of a name) has been a revelation for the Bulldogs and even without fellow stud freshman WR Mario Craver I like them to cover at home against the Hogs. More Cowbell!

Michigan State (4-3) @ Michigan (4-3): MICH -3.5, O/U 40.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET BTN

Pick Michigan State +3.5: Following Tate here but fading Michigan has proven to be a fruitful endeavor. I like the Spartans to continue their winning ways and think Chiles has found his footing after last week's upset win over the Hawkeyes.

#11 BYU (7-0) @ UCF (3-4): UCF -2, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

Pick BYU +2: Vegas is begging me to take BYU but I’m a sucker so I’m going to do it. UCF cannot pass the ball for two reasons: they can’t and they don’t want to. BYU is the better, more well-rounded team and even as a road dog I’ll take the team with a bunch of 25-year-olds that know how to win close games.

Florida State (1-6) @ #6 Miami (7-0): MIA -21, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Florida State +21, U 54.5: I’m going wayyyyyyyyy out on a limb here but hear me out. You wouldn’t know it from this publication but FSU’s defense has been pretty solid this year especially in the secondary. Outside of the SMU game, they’ve hung tough with everyone on their schedule and that includes Clemson and Memphis who rack up points. Miami is a different beast but I’m going off vibes. Pressure is on Miami, Mario Cristobal has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat one too many times for my liking, and it’s a rivalry game. I think FSU can keep this under 3 TDs and if not their offense is so bad they won’t threaten the over. Wait, I’m 2-9 on picking these. This is the worst pick I’ve ever made in my life. 

#17 Boise State (5-1) @ UNLV (6-1): BOIS -3.5, O/U 65.5 - Friday 10:30 pm ET FOX 

Pick UNLV +3.5: While I’m at it, is picking against the best running back we’ve seen since Derrick Henry the best idea? Probably not, but I’m a believer in UNLV’s run defense at home and collectively, they have the best special teams unit in the country. I think some weird shit’s going to happen in Vegas.

#21 Missouri (6-1) @ #15 Alabama (5-2): ALA -16.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ABC

Pick Bama -16.5: Screw it, I’m riding with Bama. Missouri is down their starting running back, quarterback, and is heading into TTown to face a pissed off Bama team. Does pissed off = they’ll reverse their three week trend of playing like crap? No, but I have more trust in Kalen DeBoer than I do the team who will be starting Drew Pyne at QB. 

Oklahoma (4-3) @ #20 Ole Miss (5-2): MISS -20, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Ole Miss -20: Oklahoma WR Deion Burks hasn’t played since the 1st half of the Tennessee Game on September 21st and has been upgraded from out to questionable for the first time since then. Want to take a guess who Oklahoma’s leading receiver is for the season? Yep, Burks. Oklahoma did the Michael Scott snip snap snip snap and is currently back to Jackson Arnold as QB but they’re heading into Vaught-Hemingway without a competent receiver. Give me the Rebs.

Auburn (2-5) @ Kentucky (3-4): UK -2.5, O/U 42.5 - Saturday 7:45 pm ET SECN

Pick Auburn +2.5: For my 12th and final pick of the day give me the Tigers. I’m twelve games under .500 and once all the preceding locks hit I’ll just need Auburn to hit who like myself, is due. Oh my god, and I am the Auburn of CFB betting? I need to find a new hobby. 

Upset Call of the Week

The rules for this section are simple. We’re both going to pick a double-digit underdog to pull off the upset outright. This does not count for or against our betting totals above (not that it’d matter for Rand) but it’s simply for bragging rights.

Rand: Florida State +21 over Miami. I may be an idiot, but so is Mario Cristobal

Tate: Navy +13 over Notre Dame 

Wake Forest & Georgia

Wake Forest (3-4) @ Stanford (2-5): WFU -3, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 3:30 ET ACCN

The Deacs head to Palo Alto for the second time ever with their first trip coming in 2010 when some QB named Andrew Luck boat raced us 68-24. If you think TV start times are egregious now (see Rutgers-USC above) that game kicked off at 11:15 pm ET on ESPN2. Even for a sugar-rushed 13-year-old Rand that was a ridiculously late start time for a football game and I think I was knocked out by the end of the 1Q. No hard feelings though, Wake beat Stanford and Luck the year before in Winston. 

Past history aside, taking stock of Stanford this year is difficult. They started the season 2-1 with a nice upset win at Syracuse and averaged 31 points in those games. Since then, they’ve been blown out 4 games in a row and averaged 9.5 points per contest. They hosted Virginia Tech and #21 SMU while visiting #11 Notre Dame and #17 Clemson. Per ESPN, they’ve played the 4th hardest schedule in the country. Stanford has started three different QBs on the year and as of writing, they haven’t named a starter between incumbent starter Ashton Daniels or freshman Elijah Brown. Daniels is a running threat and more experienced but had more picks than touchdowns on the year. Brown is coming off a 16/32 passing performance for 153 yards, 1 TD, and 2 picks against SMU in his first-ever start. Inspiring stuff! 

There’s one person who needs to be accounted for at all times and that’s WR Elic Ayomanor. We’ve mentioned it before but last year against Colorado’s Travis Hunter he caught 13 passes for 294 yards and 3 TDs. If you’re a Deion hater, feel free to watch this montage of his performance as Colorado blew a 29-point lead to 1-4 Stanford. He’s only eclipsed 100 yards once this year and that was in the season opener against TCU. He’s still dangerous as Syracuse found out a few weeks later. Stanford was facing a 4th & 9 with 20 seconds to go while Syracuse decided to single-cover Ayomanor. Unsurprisingly, they threw it to Ayomanor and he broke a 27-yard gain and they later kicked a walkoff game-winning field goal. Why am I harping on a nondescript ACC game from September? I’ll take any opportunity I can to throw shade at Syracuse. Stanford is a better ACC member than those Yanks. Just cover Ayomanor, please.

Stanford is coached by 2nd year guy Troy Taylor who came over from FCS Sacramento State after leading them to the playoffs three straight years. Taylor inherited a pile of rubble from David Shaw but lost to his former team last year en route to a 3-9 year. He’s of particular interest to Wake fans because he has utilized some of the slow mesh RPO concepts Wake is famous for. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery but I’d appreciate it if he’d go copy something else because Stanford sucks at running it. Stick to quantum mechanics or the I-formation and leave our slow mesh alone. 

Stanford’s secondary has been injured and if it weren’t for Wake, they’d be last in the ACC in passing yards allowed/game so there’s that. They’re also one of the worst red zone defense teams in the nation, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 88% of their trips. Is there a redeeming quality about this game? Well of course there is, Wake & Stanford are two of the least penalized teams in the conference. So if you’re a fan of clean, pure football this Nerd Bowl is for you. 

As for the Deacs, the lessons learned from the close win over Connecticut are simple: finish drives. Who knows if WR Donavon Green will be back but Fields, Mays, and Alexander continue their upward trajectory. Get the ball to RB Claiborne early and often, and don’t let an opposing QB - whoever it ends up being - who can’t even complete 60% of his passes beat us. Let’s beat the hell out of these trees, birds, color, imitators, whatever they are, and get to .500 on the season. Go Deacs. 

Georgia… Basketball?

That’s right folks. With the gridiron Dawgs on bye this week, we’re going to take the downtime to preview the Hoop Dawgs as we’re now only about ten days away from the first tip of the 2024-2025 season. As many of you know, I have followed and supported Georgia Basketball as loyally - and borderline religiously - as Georgia Football for as long as I have memories. So when I tell you that this is the best Georgia Hoops roster I’ve seen in my lifetime, I guess I’m telling you that… you should listen?

It starts with the returnees. In 2023, Georgia signed one of its highest-rated recruiting classes in decades which was highlighted by point guard Silas Demary, shooting guard Blue Cain, and stretch forward Dylan James. In this current world of absurd turnover from year-to-year in college basketball, Mike White managed to hold on to his three talented freshmen. Demary was charged with leading the team from day one, and while he had his struggles offensively at times, he showed an ability to be tough and consistent that is rare for a freshman in today’s SEC. Offseason reports indicate he’s made tremendous strides as a shooter which was a big drawback of his last year, and he’s starting to get some low-key buzz as a potential first-round pick in the next NBA draft if that comes to fruition. Blue Cain became a fan favorite both because of his hair and because he was a lights out shooter for most of the season and news flash: he can still shoot it. Dylan James finally got on the court about halfway through the season and as soon as he did, he flashed. He’s added some weight in the offseason, he shot it from deep pretty well last year and apparently the shot is even better now. The importance of getting these guys to return cannot be understated - they’re already good SEC players and it sounds like all of them have improved in massively important ways this offseason.

Then there are the newcomers, and while I won’t break down every single one of them here, there are two that we need to highlight. The first two are blue-chip true freshmen - 5-star forward Asa Newell and 4-star center Somto Cyril, both of which are surefire NBA players, likely within the year. Newell will mostly play at the 4 for us this year and is already one of the most talented players we’ve signed in decades. He’s incredibly fluid, can finish around the rim with the best of them while also hitting 3s at a high rate, and is going to be an incredibly versatile defender for us which will allow us to switch in a much more effective manner this year. Cyril is an absolute freak of nature - he’s 6’11, 260 pounds, and has a vertical of over 43”. He was committed to Kentucky before Calipari left if that tells you anything. He may be a bit raw but Georgia has not had anyone even close to his stratosphere when it comes to size and athleticism at center since I have been alive. All of these guys will be supported by the best transfer class UGA has signed since the portal became a thing several years ago, highlighted by Vanderbilt transfer guard Tryin Lawrence who has been a great player in this league for several years. 

We’re in the midst of yet another exhilarating football season, and I fully acknowledge that most people won’t care one iota about college basketball for a few more months. But I’m telling you Dawg fans right now - if there was ever a time to start watching and supporting this team from day one, it’s this year. We’re tipping things off on Monday, November 4th and I haven’t been this excited about a UGA Hoops team in several years. Go Hoop Dawgs.

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: Two straight weeks without attending a college football game? Have I lost my touch? Run out of interest? Wake’s schedule broke a certain way? The answer to those four questions is yes, have you lost your mind, I pity you if you think that, and yes. If I’m going to fly all the way out to the Bay Area it will not be for a Stanford football game. Actually, that’s a complete lie, I’ll almost certainly be doing that by the end of the decade. But I’ll be at my friend’s wedding in Greenville, SC, and look forward to celebrating the happy couple and a Deacs dub simultaneously. On Sunday, I’ll be flying to Phoenix for a work trip and you know what they say, it’s always best to leave a wedding with your best friends and head straight into a work event for five days.

Tate: Couchy McCouch-Couch.

Trivia answers: Paul Johnson of Georgia Tech, Charlie Weis of Notre Dame, and Ohio State over Indiana.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.