Launch Us To Space: Week 2 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. You know the thing about the astronauts that are stuck in space for the next 5 months because NASA abandoned them? What program is that and are they accepting applications? The NFL is starting and like a toddler who doesn’t know that a dog isn’t friendly, we’ve been bit one too many times on thinking this is the year for the Bears and Falcons. It’s a lot of work but we’ve mastered the art of drowning out the noise that the NFL and NBA take up during the college football season. We’re confident we can do it again but let us remind you Taylor Swift will be attending NFL games this season and we’re a few weeks out from Bronny James training camp analysis. We’d happily launch ourselves into the exosphere if it meant having complete control of our sensory inputs. We’re already dreading the “Dude look at this, I would’ve won my matchup last night if Jakobi Meyers had caught one more pass from Gardner Minshew!” That’s nuts dude. If space isn’t an option then we’ll stay in our college football lane if you stay in yours. Texas heads to Ann Arbor, BYU fans have the coolest nickname ever for a Jewish guy from California, and there’s a petty war brewing in Kentucky that doesn’t involve bourbon or stealing pew seats in church so let’s get rolling. 

Five Week 2 Games to Watch

#3 Texas (1-0) @ #10 Michigan (1-0): TEX -7.5, O/U 42.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

There’s no doubt that the game of the weekend is in Ann Arbor on Saturday as The Longhorns head up north to take on Michigan. This was nearly our national title matchup last year, but unfortunately, Texas was not quite “back” enough to get by Washington. Both teams are replacing a significant amount of talent that left for the NFL, but each squad returns some key pieces whose performances will undoubtedly determine the outcome of this game.

Offensively for the Wolverines, things are uh, not operating at a high level right now. The word out of Ann Arbor all offseason and through about half of fall camp was that Alex Orji would step in at QB to replace JJ McCarthy until the word started to get out that Alex Orji cannot throw a football to another person to save his life. So in steps the assumed backup, Davis Warren, who got the starting nod last week against Fresno State and looked rather uninspiring, throwing for only 118 yards, missing open targets multiple times, and throwing into double or triple coverage more than once. None of this is where you want your passing game to be as the #3 team in the country is coming into town. Michigan’s star tight end Colston Loveland needs to have the game of his life for Michigan to get this passing game going on Saturday.

Of course, what Michigan actually wants to do is run the ball down your throat, and to be fair, they might be able to pull that off given that they still have Donovan Edwards. Texas is still figuring out its defensive line post-T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy who departed to the league. Michigan replaces a lot on the offensive line and while the new guys didn’t look like world-beaters last weekend, we’re pretty sure they’ll be fine there.

What this game will come down to is really on the other side: Texas’ offense vs Michigan’s defense. Even with the loss of star running back CJ Baxter for the season, Quinn Ewers has a plethora of skill talent to distribute the ball to behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, including future top-10 pick Kelvin Banks. Steve Sarkisian is one of the best play callers in the sport, but this Michigan defense is for real, with three likely first-rounders in CB Will Johnson and DLs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. Texas’ receivers are very talented but relatively unproven in this offense, and we haven’t seen Sarkisian scheme things up recently when he has a corner like Johnson locking down one side of the field. And as good as Texas’ OL is, are they good enough to consistently stop Michigan’s front from blowing up their run game, especially since Texas is without its best back? Michigan needs to keep Texas’ offense from hitting too many explosive plays and keep this game low-scoring to have a true shot here, but they have more than enough talent to make it happen. We can’t wait to watch the matchups on the line of scrimmage when Texas is on offense not only because it’ll be filled with future NFL studs, but because whoever wins that battle will likely determine the outcome here.

Iowa State (1-0) @ #21 Iowa (1-0): IOWA -2.5, O/U 35.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

It has become an annual September tradition where we muse if Iowa State is a dark horse playoff contender. Then, they play Iowa for the Cy-Hawk trophy and before September is over Cyclones fans look at flights for the Cheez-It Bowl instead of the playoff. Iowa has won 7 of the past 8 meetings dating back to 2014. If there’s a silver lining or a cause for immense pain and suffering, every game has been won by less than 10 points since 2017. There’s a lot of side-eyeing going on in Iowa City after last week’s 40-point outburst against Illinois State which included 3 touchdowns to wide receivers. Iowa scored 50 points in their previous five games combined and threw 3 touchdowns to receivers all of last year. 

Both teams return nearly their entire roster from last year including the QBs. Iowa State’s Rocco Becht went 20/26 for 267 and 2 TDs in last week's 21-3 win over North Dakota. Establishing an early rhythm with WR Jayden Higgins - who went 5 catches for 75 yards and 1 TD last week - will be important for the Cyclones to pull the upset. Last week, Iowa QB Cade McNamara put on an offensive performance that will be told on front porches in Iowa City for generations to come: 21/31 passing for 251 yards and 3 TDs with two of them going to an NPC named Reece Vander Zee. Kinnick Stadium is going to be rocking for a game that could carry a ton of weight come playoff selection time in December. 

Colorado (1-0) @ Nebraska (1-0): NEB -7.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Deion Sanders and his children head into Lincoln to take on the ever-starving-for-glory Nebraska Cornhuskers in a game that we have never been so certain will be a meme for the rest of our lives. We all know what Colorado is at this point - it’s the Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and Jimmy Horn. Jr shows on offense, with nothing positive happening on defense (except for the hilarity that is Shilo Sanders attempting to destroy somebody 5 seconds after a play has ended multiple times per game). The offense is must-watch TV right now because of Sheduer’s ability to distribute the ball to those elite playmakers, especially Hunter, who is one of the most riveting players of our lifetimes. But Nebraska’s defense is big, physical, well-coached, and defensive coordinator Tony White is one of the best in the business, known for disguising coverages and forcing QBs into mistakes. Shedeur does a phenomenal job of not turning the ball over for the most part, but he does tend to make very quick decisions at times in order to get the ball to Hunter and Horn, and we think White might have something up his sleeve for that at some point.

Offensively for the Huskers, 5-star freshman QB Dylan “Mr. Thickness” Raiola already flashed in his first game, providing Nebraska with a downfield passing game they haven’t had in ages, which is a nightmare scenario for a Colorado defense that struggles to tackle in open space and just generally sucks ass. Travis Hunter is incredible though, so maybe he baits the plump young Husker into thinking he has an open man when he really doesn’t. Either way, we don’t see Colorado slowing Nebraska down much on the ground at all.

There is also the Deion factor… I’m sorry, but this guy has just now shown on multiple occasions that he is possibly the worst in-game coach in America. His clock management at the end of last week’s win against NDSU was nothing short of abhorrent, just genuinely inept stuff. And that came after he took heat for electing to play on offense first in overtime last year which is objectively the incorrect move in the college game, something we’ve known in this sport for decades. Nebraska has the clear coaching edge here, so the question of this game is entirely about whether or not Shedeur and the boys can score enough points to give themselves a shot.

#14 Tennessee (1-0) vs #24 NC State (1-0): UT -8.0, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC in Charlotte

Charlotte is the perfect place to host a game between Tennessee and NC State. Every UTK & State alum dreams about Charlotte the same way European explorers dreamed of finding the Northwest Passage but instead, they found a boring ass place they could gentrify the shit out of.

This is the most interesting game of the weekend in our opinion because of the vast stylistic and philosophical approaches to the sport of football that these two teams have. Tennessee’s offensive approach is well known at this point: they’re going to spread you the hell out and snap the ball as quickly as possible every play, making your defense’s organization and decision-making paramount to your success. Dave Doeren at NC State has had that defense humming for years primarily out of their 3-3-5 Stack base unit, which can both simulate and bring pressure from all sorts of weird spots on the field, as well as fit runs extremely effectively. But that’s what’s weird about this matchup - Tennessee’s receivers (often two on each side of the field) stand damn near on the sideline in a lot of their looks, meaning those DBs Doeren loves to blitz and fit runs will often get taken way out of their normal field positions. Historically, if you can get NC State out of their stack looks they start to struggle mightily - is that actually what is going to happen on Saturday, or can Doeren play chess with Heupel? We have no idea, but we tend to believe Tennessee’s lightning pace is going to take the Wolfpack out of their desired looks at times, and Nico Iamaleava looks like he’s exactly the type of guy to pick defenses apart when they’re on their heels.

On the other side, NC State ran offense at a snail’s pace in their grind-it-out win last week against Western Carolina. Receiver Kevin Concepcion is a stud on the outside, and Grayson McCall’s running ability at QB gives defenses something extra to try to contain. But this is not Western Carolina - Tennessee’s defensive front is one of the best in the country. NC State needs to establish itself on the ground to try to balance out their attack, or James Pearce and crew are going to tee off going after McCall in the pocket, and McCall does not have the arm strength to beat pressure and hit guys downfield consistently. We’re excited for this one because you couldn’t come up with two approaches to football that are much different than these teams, and while we certainly tend to believe Tennessee has the edge here, there are paths to victory for both squads.

Boise State (1-0) @ #7 Oregon (1-0): ORE -19.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 10:00pm ET Peacock

Did you really think FOX, CBS, and in this case, NBC forked over a seven-year, $8 billion contract to the Big 10 without having a trickle-down effect on us mortal plebeians? Thanks to conference realignment and subsequent TV deals, if you want to watch the #7 team in the country go against a name-brand G5 school with an RB in Ashton Jeanty who just ran for 6 TDs you’ll have to do something illegal or subscribe to Peacock. 

Vegas does not seem concerned with Oregon’s uninspiring 24-14 win over Idaho last weekend and perhaps it’s because Heisman favorite QB Dillon Gabriel looked sharp after posting a 41/49 for 380 yards and 2 TD passing line. Furthermore, Vegas does not seem shaken by the unimaginable fact that Boise State is 3-0 all-time against the mighty Ducks. Of course, when they last met in 2009 Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount went viral before going viral was a thing after socking a Boise DL in the face. If you’re going to throw a punch, you have to make it count and Blount certainly did so props to him. As is the case with any plucky, upset-minded team, Boise will have to limit the penalties and turnovers, something they didn’t do against Georgia Southern who almost pulled an upset of their own. It’d behoove Oregon to save face and regain their recognition as a national champion contender because they head to Corvallis next weekend in what’s going to be the usual hostile crowd but this time on crack. 

Seven More Games to Watch if You’re Sickos Like Us

BYU (1-0) @ SMU (2-0): SMU -11.5, O/U 55.5 - Friday 7:00pm ET ESPN2

Duke (1-0) @ Northwestern (1-0): NW -2.5, O/U 37.5 - Friday 9:00pm ET FS1

We’re combining these two nondescript P4 games into one because they’re both on Friday night. Thanks to the NFL starting on Thursday night the CFB gods have deprived us of 3 straight nights of college football and are bending the knee to Goodell and Mahomes. While SMU looks to prove their might in the suddenly wide-open ACC we would be remiss not to mention that BYU fans endearingly refer to QB Jake Retzlaff as the BYJew. Meanwhile, Duke and Northwestern face off in the Nerd Bowl on the shores of Lake Michigan with an O/U of 37.5. If that’s not enough natural melatonin to have you sleep peacefully before Saturday’s marathon then you should actually see a doctor. 

Arkansas (1-0) @ #17 Oklahoma State (1-0): OSU -7.5, O/U 62.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

After sending QB KJ Jefferson (now at UCF) to the transfer portal gulag and bringing in new OC Bobby Petrino and QB Taylen Green from Boise State, Arkansas has remade their offense in an effort to save head coach Sam Pittman’s job. They hung 70 on Arkansas-Pine Bluff last weekend and if you think that’s a predictor of future success that’s like thinking you can shoot a 79 after going to the driving range once. Now they head to Stillwater for their first meeting against the Pokes since 1980 when Lou Holtz and Jimmy Johnson were the coaches. After looking up that fact I’m 95% confident that’ll be the Aflac trivia question during the broadcast. Oklahoma State fought off reigning FCS national champion South Dakota State pretty convincingly last weekend in a 44-20 victory. Ollie Gordon III isn’t a known reader but he likely takes offense to Tate’s claim on Tuesday that Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is the best RB in college football. LB Doneiko Slaughter (I just wanted to say the name) will have the unenviable task of trying to slow Gordon down but look out for WR Brennan Presley who is QB Alan Bowman’s favorite target. A win by the Pokes will cement their status as a Big 12 frontrunner while a Hogs win would go a long way in saving Pittman’s job so America can avoid a second term of Bobby Petrino. 

Cal (1-0) @ Auburn (1-0): AUB -13, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

Why is a game with a home SEC team favored by 2 touchdowns on this list? First of all, shut up, and second of all would you rather us write about Michigan State-Maryland or Georgia Tech-Syracuse because we will! We kid, but the real reason is Auburn is about as trustworthy as that girl from high school selling Arbonne on her Instagram and they almost lost this game last year. Auburn survived in Berkeley last year thanks to a 4th quarter go-ahead touchdown pass by QB Payton Thorne and was aided by three missed Bears field goals to escape with a 14-10 win. Auburn is coming off a 73-3 thumping of Alabama A&M while Cal cruised to a 31-13 win over UC Davis. Whatever that three-headed dog in Harry Potter is called, Auburn’s got that at WR with Cam Coleman, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and Perry Thompson while Cal has a straight-up dog in RB Jaydn Ott. Things often get crazy on The Plains so tune into ESPN2 for at least the 1Q unless you have DirectTV. More on that below.

#19 Kansas (1-0) @ Illinois (1-0): KU -5.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET FS1

Kansas brings one of the most exciting offenses in the country into Champaign, where they’ll take on one of the most boring offenses in the country. Kansas is led by QB Jalon Daniels, whose participation in this game is reason enough to watch alone, but the initial line here caught our eye - why is this only a 5.5-point spread? Illinois is known for its defense these days, so the concern here would seem to be that Illinois could slow the Jayhawks’ run game down enough to where Daniels is forced to sit back and make big throws - which is not at all what he excels at. Either way, this is another interesting stylistic matchup that should be fun and exciting to watch, so count us in.

USF (1-0) @ #4 Alabama (1-0): Bama -30, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

We included this game because USF took the Crimson Tide down to the wire last year in Tampa in a literal monsoon, and USF brings back one of the country’s best and most electric QBs in Byrum Brown. Sure, Alabama was in absolute silly mode when it elected to bench Jalen Milroe in favor of Tyler Buchner thinking they could throw the ball better (again, in an actual monsoon… still pretty sure that was a secret suspension of Milroe), but we digress. Alabama is sure to light up a below-average USF defense, but Alabama’s very young secondary busted a few coverages last week against Western Kentucky that the Hilltoppers just could not convert on. Brown will convert on those, and it wouldn’t shock us to see some Bulls points early in this game that make us all switch our TVs over to this game for a little. Or maybe we’re wrong and you just get to watch Alabama’s incredible players go crazy. It’s a win/win, right?

App State (1-0) @ #25 Clemson (0-1): CLEM -17.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

At this point, watching a Clemson game might be considered cruel and unusual punishment. Water always finds its level and with Iowa sending former OC Brian Ferentz out to the cornfields this offseason, it looks like the CFB gods sent Clemson to the doldrums. Here’s a stat for you: The average passing yards/game in college football last year was about 220 yards. Klubnik has started 17 games in his career and has passed for 220 or more yards just eight times. He’s 4-4 in those games and here are the wins: Charleston Southern, Kentucky in a bowl game (read: opt-outs), Syracuse, and 2022 against North Carolina who had the 116th-worst pass defense. So the answer to the problems is not to let Klubnik throw more, it's to take the Michigan model of playing ridiculous defense and running your offense through RB Phil Mafah who’s one table corner away from popping like a balloon. We have 17 data points that show Klubnik is not the golden boy Clemson hoped and hyped him up to be. The floor for this program should be an ACC Championship game appearance with that defense, all you need is mediocre QB play who can get the ball to WRs Antonio Williams and 5-star freshman Byrant Wesco Jr. Put backup QB and former 4-star Christopher Vizzina and simply ask him not to blow it. Dabo is doing a disservice to his team and fans with Klubnik in there week in and week out because they have the talent to beat presumed favorite Miami in Charlotte, but that won’t happen with Klubnik behind center. 

This week the Tigers lick their wounds in a primetime game against App State who is the singular G5 team you do not want to face regardless of circumstances. They don’t win every P4 game they play, but they never get blown out and certainly don’t make life fun. Drake Maye needed 2OTs and fortuitous officiating to beat them last year. In 2022 they lost to UNC 63-61 but took down Jimbo and the Aggies in College Station the very next weekend. In 2021 they lost to Miami by two but in 2019 they took down UNC and South Carolina on the road. We’re not calling an upset here given Clemson’s D but look out for QB Joey Aguilar who returned his top four pass-catching targets from a year ago and leads the Sun Belt favorites into Death Valley. 

Quick Hitters

If you’re living in 2024 and not 1979 when electricity was invented (don’t fact-check) and Russia was invading a different country you’re probably procuring your live TV through a streaming platform like Hulu or YouTubeTV. If so, that means you’re blissfully unaware of the carriage dispute between DirectTV and ESPN. As of last weekend, DirectTV has dropped all ESPN channels from its programming until they get a long-term deal done. These are usually very public but short disputes because shockingly, customers get really pissed off when they can’t watch the NFL or college football during football season. This is important for iPad kids and boomers alike because a lot of bars and restaurants use DirectTV as Rand learned on Monday night when he was trying to watch the Boston College-FSU game. We want you to be armed and cognizant of this information before making weekend plans that don’t involve melting on the couch. 

Whether it’s inertia, electromagnetic something something, or gravity that makes this massive rock called earth spin, the college football equivalent is pettiness over trivial matters that get blown way out of proportion and we couldn’t love it more. On Saturday, Western Kentucky hosts their FCS and cardinal direction opposite Eastern Kentucky. Western Kentucky has been advertising a White Out since July 10th with all-white jerseys and encouraging fans to wear white. EKU exercised their right to wear white jerseys on the road and now the Hilltoppers have to wear their home reds. We expect Western Kentucky to put a beatdown on the Colonels but we applaud the coaching staff’s chess move. Similarly, former Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins dashed to Columbu$, OH this offseason, and after being asked how his Ohio State debut he noted how there were over 100,000 fans and, “Being at Ole Miss, I only got to see that at away games.” If there’s anything we know about Ole Miss fans it’s that they will take this slight in stride and react rationally, just as they did when the Pro-Palestinian protestors came to campus earlier this year. We’ll let you look that up on your own time. 

Wait a minute, there’s a non-Dabo coach out there having to walk back comments critical of fans and we’re not even in Week 2 yet? Oh, baby. We can’t put you on the hot seat because you’re already there so I guess continue sitting there, Billy Napier, while we analyze. This past Monday following Miami’s 41-17 beatdown of the Gators Napier said, “If we can focus on those things and not necessarily what some guy in his basement is saying in rural Central Florida on social media, then we got a chance to get better.” In response, UCF’s collective is now selling shirts that say Rural Central Florida. Napier walked back those comments just yesterday and claimed he was not referencing UF fans because of course he wasn’t! Why would those comments lead you to believe he was talking about anything but Floridians in general? On the field, starting QB Graham Mertz will be out on Sunday with a concussion so freshman phenom DJ Lagway will get the nod against Samford. Just as baseball execs do before the trade deadline, expect high-major coaches across the country to watch the film on this game because Lagway could become an Ohtani-level free agent by October. 

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Tate’s Great Picks (5-6)

#3 Texas (1-0) @ #10 Michigan (1-0): TEX -7.5, O/U 42.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick Texas -7.5: I think Michigan’s defense may keep this one close into the second half, but Michigan looked really lackluster against Fresno last week. Texas has too much firepower not to score some points, and if that happens early, Michigan does not have the ability to play from behind and throw themselves into a comeback right now. The Horns pull away in the late 3rd/4th quarter.

#14 Tennessee (1-0) vs #24 NC State (1-0): UT -8.0, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC in Charlotte

Pick Tennessee -8: Grayson McCall has a noodle arm while Nico Iamaleava is going to be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft in two years. The Vols’ offense puts the Wolfpack on their heels early and keeps their foot on the pedal. Vols Vols Vols.

Cal (1-0) @ Auburn (1-0): AUB -13, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

Pick Auburn -13: I thought Auburn looked pretty damn good last week and I am not at all a Cal believer, no matter how good Jaydn Ott is. I don’t think Cal has anybody that can cover Cam Coleman, and I thought 5-star true freshman defensive end/EDGE Amaris Williams really popped last Saturday. Tigers/War Eagles/Plainsmen roll at home.

Iowa State (1-0) @ #21 Iowa (1-0): IOWA -2.5, O/U 35.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick Game Total Under 35.5: This game is hilariously low-scoring every year and while I think Iowa State’s offense might eventually get things going, they could not run the ball to save their lives last week against North Dakota. That does not bode well as they head into Hawkeye Stadium to play one of the best defenses in the country.

Middle Tennessee State (1-0) @ #6 Ole Miss (1-0): Ole Miss -41.5, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 4:30pm ET SECN

Pick Ole Miss -41.5 and Game Total Over 63.5: This is a crazy spread to cover, I know, but hear me out. MTSU struggled to get stops all day against a backup FCS QB last week, while Lane Kiffin seemed insistent on bolstering Jaxson Dart’s Heisman campaign against a completely overwhelmed Furman team last week, chucking the ball deep while already up 45 and scoring 76 points for no apparent reason at all. Lane doesn’t seem to believe it’s his job to not run up the score on you, it’s your job to stop it. I don’t think MTSU can stop it. Note from Rand: keep in mind they might not want to put anything on tape and play conservatively for their huge matchup in Tusca…Winston-Salem next weekend.

#19 Kansas (1-0) @ Illinois (1-0): KU -5.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET FS1

Pick Kansas -5.5: The concern of Illinois slowing Kansas’ run game down and forcing Jalon Daniels to make throws is certainly valid, but I just do not see a Bret Bielema offense scoring enough points to keep up with a Daniels-led Lance Leipold attack. If you played this game ten times I think Kansas not only wins, but covers this spread seven of them, so I’m rolling with the Jayhawks.

Colorado (1-0) @ Nebraska (1-0): NEB -7.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Pick Nebraska -7.5: We’ve got ourselves a fight as Rand is on Colorado below, but I just am not seeing it with this Colorado team unless they are playing an average-to-bad defense. Nebraska’s defense is neither. Dylan Raiola may be the chunkiest boy alive, but his ability to stretch defenses deep is something Nebraska has lacked for years. Matt Rhule is a much better coach, Nebraska’s defense is far better than Colorado’s, and this game is in Lincoln. Give me the Huskers.

OnlyRans (6-6)

App State (1-0) @ #25 Clemson (0-1): CLEM -17.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Pick App State +17.5 and Game Total Under 53.5: Did you read anything we wrote in the game preview above? App State doesn’t get blown out in these spots and even if they did, what planet are you betting on where you’d think Clemson could sniff the game total if their defense shuts down the Neers?

Iowa State (1-0) @ #21 Iowa (1-0): IOWA -2.5, O/U 35.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick Iowa -2.5 and Game Total Under 35.5: Last week’s 40-point outburst by Iowa was a mirage. Don’t forget they were only up 6-0 at halftime and 19-0 at the end of the third quarter. This offense is still shitty with a capital…well, all letters. Iowa State on the other hand was outgained on the ground by the worse of the two schools in North Dakota. Last year’s O/U was 36.5 and the under hit. In 2022 the final score was 10-7. The under is 17-2 in this series. Enough stats for ya? TLDR: I’m riding Iowa’s defense at home against their rival who they rarely score against or lose to. 

Boise State (1-0) @ #7 Oregon (1-0): ORE -19.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 10:00pm ET Peacock

Pick Oregon -19.5 and Game Total Over 61.5: This is a night game in Autzen which doesn’t bode well for the Broncos. Everyone’s focused on the rushing performance by Jeanty last weekend which conveniently masks the fact their defense allowed 461 total yards and 12-19 on third down to Georgia Southern and a ginger QB named JC French. If my read on Oregon blowing out the Broncos holds, Oregon might hit the over by themselves. 

#14 Tennessee (1-0) vs #24 NC State (1-0): UT -8.0, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC in Charlotte

Pick Tennessee -8: I try my best to shed my bias when making these picks which is why I never bet on Wake or one of their specific rivals but if Nico is the truth like everyone including Urban Meyer said he is, he’s going to shred State here. The talent disparity between upper middle tier SEC and ACC schools is wider than you’d think and since when has anyone not believed something Urban Meyer said?

Texas Tech (1-0) @ Washington State (1-0): WSU -2.5, O/U 65.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET FOX 

Pick Texas Tech +2.5: Yes, Texas Tech was a trainwreck last week against Abilene Christian but they still have RB Tahj Boyd and I’m predicting a look-ahead spot for Wazzu who might be focused on the Apple Cup a week too early. 

Colorado (1-0) @ Nebraska (1-0): NEB -7.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Pick Colorado +7.5: I can get Colorado as a possession-plus underdog against the most disappointing and underperforming team in the last two decades? Yes, please. Even though Colorado and Deion don’t perform well outside of Boulder, especially ATS, I’m not going to jump on the Nebraska bandwagon all of a sudden because they looked good against a UTEP team that finished 122nd in total defense last year. 

Wake Forest & Georgia

Tennessee Tech (0-1) @ #1 Georgia (1-0): At his Tuesday press conference, Tennessee Tech head coach Bobby Wilder said, “If I was being honest, I would tell you I’m not thrilled to be headed to Athens, Georgia this weekend. So, I’ll be dishonest and say I’m very excited to be playing Georgia at Sanford Stadium in front of 93,000.” I hear ya, coach. 

I’ll be very honest and admit I do not have much to tell you about Tennessee Tech ahead of this game, but the Golden Eagles fought hard in their first game against Middle Tennessee State, coming up short 31-25 at the end. They do appear to be a decent team by FCS standards this year, and even though they lost their starting quarterback for the year early in last Saturday’s game, their backup Jordyn Potts came in with some juice, throwing for over 250 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs in relief. Regardless of any of that, we all know they are not going to have a ton of fun on Saturday.

I’ll keep it brief on the Dawgs this week because this is nothing more than a practice for us, but Kirby’s updates this week made it sound like we’re getting healthier and have no true long-term injuries at this point (outside of potentially Rod Robinson who has turf toe, the recovery for which is borderline impossible to predict) which is great news, and we may even get to see Joenel Aguero return to play STAR which I couldn’t be more pumped about. Trevor Etienne should be back from suspension and while it’ll be nice to see him take snaps, I’m expecting him to touch the ball about 4 times. I’d love to see Nate Frazier get some more runs, and I’m excited to see the other two freshman backs we brought in, particularly Dwight Phillips Jr. who is hilariously fast. I’d love to see the backup QBs (Rashada and Puglisi in addition to Stockton who we’ll definitely see early) get some legitimate run as well, but Kirby is pretty insistent on not running up the score on FCS opponents and I expect much of the second half to be us almost intentionally punting the ball, so who knows. Outside of that for the offense, I’d just like to see us get off to a quick start, be efficient, and get out of there healthy. Same goes for the defense, but I’m formally asking for a shutout from them.

I’ll review the game a bit on Sunday but I’ll be excited to look ahead to actual real opponents - including Alabama - that we have coming up shortly after this. Stay healthy, Dawgs.

Virginia (1-0) @ Wake Forest (1-0): WFU -2, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN2

Life comes at you fast and no fanbase knows that more than those of Wake Forest. After a Week 1 FCS bout with NC Central, they draw ACC counterpart Virginia before hosting #6 Ole Miss next week. But this is no time to look ahead because Virginia was better than their 3-9 2023 record showed. 5 losses by less than a touchdown with upset wins over Duke and UNC means they’re likely due for some positive regression to the mean. QB Anthony Colandrea is a dual threat with an arm to sling it all over the field. WR Chris Tyree escaped the developmental purgatory known as the Notre Dame WR room while RB Kobe Pace got lost in the shuffle at Clemson but is still talented. This is one of the most experienced and oldest teams in the country and while I’m not saying they’ll make the ACC Championship game there are similarities to the 2021 Wake Forest team. Last week they soundly beat Richmond 34-13 with a balanced offensive attack but finished a paltry 3-11 on third downs.

For Wake to extend their 5 game win streak over the Hoos they’ll need to play a complete game and that starts up front. The DL played well against the Aggies last week but they did a poor job of tackling in space which is integral to corralling Colandrea. As noted on Tuesday, Clawson has yet to name a starting QB and an ACC matchup is not an ideal time to try offensive experimentation, no matter how similar the playing styles of Bachmeier and Kern are. I’m doing that nervous/eternal pessimist thing again, aren’t I? I’m nervous about Virginia!? This game is at home and will likely be a sellout. What the hell am I talking about, we’re going to kick the shit out of Virginia. They don’t beat anyone of note unless they’re overrated and wearing Carolina blue. Deacs by a billion. 

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: If you did the math on how often I’m in Atlanta versus my rent, I’d be better off staying in the Ritz-Carlton whenever I’m here. But what’s the point of being 27 if you’re not going to make fiscally irresponsible decisions?  Buried the lede here but I’m off to Winston to see the Deacs play the Cavs. 

Tate: I think my days of attending the annual UGA vs FCS game are behind me, especially now that I have a college football newsletter to write. I’m opting out of the Athens (and back) trip to sit directly on my couch to watch all of Texas/Michigan and the rest of this week’s slate. Three-TV setup inbound.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.