Week 0 Preview & Win Totals!

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. You all have heard a bit from Rand recently as we’ve gotten ready for the season, but I (Tate) am back to formally announce my return to your inbox. I took some time away over the summer to plan and execute me and my wife’s wedding in Laguna Beach, which went swimmingly (figurative), and our honeymoon in Maui, which would have gone much more swimmingly (literal) had the expected mega-tsunami actually hit on our second day. It was somewhat surreal bracing for potential catastrophe - several questions raced through my head: Will this impact Hawai’i’s already-temporary stadium over in Honolulu after their first one started falling apart? How, even if marginally, will this affect LeBron’s legacy? Are my wife and I in imminent physical danger? Thankfully, literally nothing happened despite the hours-long fearmongering from the woke and radical Hawai’i weather alert services. 

I’m happy to be back, and while I’ll miss Rand living down the street now that he’s in Charlotte, I know that I’ll still be seeing him as I mostly do anyway: via pictures he texts me in front of random college football stadiums in northern Utah at 3pm on a Wednesday. His work is mysterious and important and we do not ask him about it (and it is not as a traveling circus ventriloquist, no matter what anybody says). 

Oh, and I’m excited for college football to start, which is happening in literally two days.

Week 0 Preview

Farmageddon - #22 Iowa State v #17 Kansas State: KSU -3, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN in Dublin, Ireland

We hope you don’t have brunch plans on Saturday, because it’s time for us to celebrate college football’s most sane and normal tradition: sending two teams to kick off the season in Ireland for some reason. This year we get two teams who constantly remind us all of Irish heritage, tradition, and history: Iowa State & Kansas State.

In all seriousness, a top 25 matchup is a great way to get things started - especially between two Big 12 teams. We talked about it ad nauseum last season, but the Big 12 is now the most volatile power conference in the country where, while there are no programs in the top tier or two of the sport, there are similarly no programs that you can count out from competing for the league, either - as Arizona State proved last year, winning the conference and making the playoffs after being picked to finish last in the league in the preseason. Both ISU and KSU are serious contenders this year, and this game could go a long way in determining the conference and playoff races. 

Both schools bring back their starting QBs - Rocco Becht for the Cyclones and Avery Johnson for the Wildcats. Both squads also bring back their starting running backs in Carson Hanson for ISU, who ran for over 750 yards and 13 TDs last year, and Dylan Edwards for KSU, who is on the preseason Maxwell Award list. All of this has me leaning toward the Over at 49.5, but then I remember that this is a Week 0 game in Ireland. Regardless, you can’t ask for much more than two ranked teams kicking things off in Week 0, so I can guarantee I will be watching every second of this game from my couch.

One Reason to Watch the Other Games

We’re not going to beat around the bush: Farmageddon is the main event, and the undercard sucks. Feel free to go about your last summer Saturday however you see fit. Trim your petunias, clean out the garage, read that book you bought 8 months ago because God knows you won’t have another free Saturday until February. However, just in case you stick around for the Saturday evening CFB slate, we’re giving you one compelling reason not to go do yard work or whatever hellacious task has been assigned to you. 

Idaho State @ UNLV: UNLV -26.5, O/U 65.5 - Saturday 4:00 pm ET 

One reason to watch: Barry Odom revived the deadbeat program that was UNLV and promptly left for Purdue to hopefully do the same…Boiler Up. Enter former Mississippi State and Florida head coach Dan Mullen, who took a sabbatical, along with a $12 million buyout from the Gators, to the ESPN booth. Mullen has an interesting QB battle on his hands in former UVA QB Anthony Colandrea and Michigan’s Alex Orji. Colandrea was fine, not great for the Hoos, but his dual-threat ability should play well in Mullen’s system. Also in the running (literally, because that’s all he can do) is Orji, who was borderline unplayable last year even with Michigan trying anything and everything at QB. Remember when Michigan was starting guys named Davis Warren and Jack Tuttle at QB? Mullen will run a run-first scheme and Colandrea and Orji won’t be asked to carry the team. That will fall on the best RB in the Mountain West - Jai’Den ‘Jet’ Thomas. UNLV will roll here, but it might be worth tuning in at least until the game below starts. 

Fresno State @ Kansas: KU -13, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 6:30 pm ET FOX

One reason to watch: After having to play games in Arrowhead and the stadium of whatever the Kansas City MLS team is called, Kansas is finally done with its renovations to David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Horrible name by the way, gotta shorten that up. Jayhawks QB Jalon Daniels was oft-injured last year but when healthy, he’s one of the best in the Big 12. Fresno State is rebuilding under 1st year coach Matt Entz, who used to be at North Dakota State when they were (and still are) winning every FCS national championship. He coached Trey Lance, Carson Wentz, Easton Stick, etc. This is easily the second-best game of the day and should go a long way in telling us how seriously to take Kansas in the Big 12 race this year. 

San Houston @ WKU: WKU -10, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET CBSSN

One reason to watch: On paper, this is a skippable game, and we wouldn’t blame you if you did. However, under the hood, there are some intriguing storylines here. First, Sam Houston is called the Bearkats and that’s not a typo. Upon Google review, a Bearkat is an intentional mispelling of Bearcat and is either a mythical creature, a reference to a Binturong of SE Asia which looks like a climbing raccoon, or a Kinkajou of South America which looks like lemur things. They’re also coached by former UNC and Wisconsin OC Phil Longo, who was lambasted for running such a fast-paced offense with Sam Howell that Mack Brown’s horrible defense was routinely left out to dry. They also have 0 returning starters on defense, which is not what you want against the Hiltoppers who routinely have one of the best offenses in the country. Enter new WKU QB Maverick McIver, who comes from Albeline Christian. You might remember him throwing for 500+ yards and being a 2-point conversion away from knocking off Texas Tech last year. Liberty is far and away the best team in CUSA, but this Week 0 matchup kicks off a battle for second. 

Stanford @ Hawai’i: HAW -2.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET CBS

One reason to watch: Are you a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty person? Therapists looking for new material can use this game as an example because why in the hell is Hawai’i favored against Stanford? Should we credit Warriors head coach Timmy Chang for building this program literally from the ground up? Or is Stanford really going to be this bad? Either way, shit always goes down in Hawai’i, and there’s no better way to cap off Week 0 of college football with a bunch of nerds trying not to lose in a high school stadium in the middle of the ocean. 

Regular Season Win Totals

Because of weddings, tsunamis, and trips to northern Utah, we were unable to do conference previews like we did last year. Therefore, we’re trying to highlight a few teams throughout the country by looking at regular-season win totals and why they have our attention either positively or dubiously. A few weeks ago, Rand looked at the lowest win totals for Power 4 teams and offered a reason for optimism for each one, so we’ll avoid repeats there. However, be sure to thank us in 6 months when all of these hit. Lay the mortgage!

OnlyRans

Boise State over 8.5 wins: We’re going on 20 years of Boise State proving they are a recession-proof program at the Group of 5 level. Even with the loss of Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos are loaded and, even with a difficult schedule, should breeze to double-digit wins. QB Maddux Madsen is back after throwing for over 3,000 yards and 23 TDs. He’ll have four of five starters on his offensive line back, as well as his favorite redzone target, TE Mark Lauter. The Broncos have to travel to South Bend, but should be favored in every other game on the schedule - including a juicy home game against App State. I’m betting on the Broncos to get to 10+ wins for the 21st time this decade, which is a wild stat to type. 

Auburn O 7.5: While I’ve never seen the movie Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, per Google, it’s about a couple who get this procedure to relive the past and erase specific memories. I might need that procedure done after I take Auburn to cover their regular-season win total, but I’m high on the Tigers. This hitting or not will come down to Oklahoma transfer QB Jackson Arnold, who has not lived up to his lofty potential yet but has one of the best WR rooms in the country. Cam Coleman is one of the best WRs in the nation, and he’s paired with Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr., who reportedly runs a 4.2 forty. Keep your eyes on WR Horatio Fields from Wake and DE Keldrick Faulk who will be a first-round draft pick next April. This might be the dumbest thing I’ll write all year, but no going back now. 

Tennessee U 8.5: If you were to look at Tennessee’s schedule, you might call me an idiot for taking the under here. Well, I did just hype up Auburn football so I wouldn’t argue with you there. However, I don’t think it’s going to be a fun year on Rocky Top with the departure of QB Nico Iamaleava. Joey Aguilar was good not great at App State and there’s a pretty steep drop-off in talent between the two and South Alabama and Alabama might as well be playing a different sport. Also, App State lost 48-14 to South Alabamer last year but I digress. Tennessee’s best CB and future top draft pick Jermod McCoy tore his ACL in January with no timetable on his return, and they have to completely rework the offensive line and WR room around Aguilar. Back to the schedule, it’s pretty easy once you look past Georgia and Bama. But what do Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma all have in common? Coaches who have to win now. 

SMU U 8.5: Another 2024 playoff contender who I am not so high on going into the season, even though they return QB Ken Jennings. Per usual, the Mustangs relied heavily on the transfer portal to offset their departures but that’s easier said than done year over year - just ask Florida State. Additionally, their schedule is a meat grinder. Trips to Clemson and TCU are sandwiched in between visits from Miami, Baylor, and Louisville. And don’t even get me started on their first-ever trip to Winston-Salem. Ok ignore that, but even though they’re coming off consecutive 11-win seasons and a playoff berth, either there’s going to be some regression to the mean or Rhett Lashlee will be coaching in the SEC next year. 

Navy O 8.5 & Army O 7.5: Alright, here’s a working thesis: with the advent of the transfer portal, Army & Navy (and Air Force) are surprising beneficiaries of the mass roster changes throughout college football. It’s undeniable that the triple option is an absolute nightmare to prepare for. When Wake had Army on the schedule under Clawson, they’d devote entire practice sessions to preparing for it during spring and fall camp. Now, with new coaches and entirely new rosters, these Army & Navy guys who don’t collect NIL and don’t enter the portal are 3-4 years into running an offense that’s second nature to them lining up against guys who have been at their school for less than a month. Navy won 10 games last year, returns star QB Blake Horvath, plays four teams with first-year head coaches, and that’s not counting UAB or FCS VMI. I’m legally and morally obligated to mention that VMI will put up a hell of a fight against the Midshipmen because if I did, I will be disappeared…and the Keydet readers know how to make that happen. Army won 12 games last year, also plays UAB and an FCS team, four teams with new coaches, but must replace their prolific QB and RB. Hammer the over and I’ll work on getting my paper published. 

Tate’s Great Picks

Miami U 9.5 wins: The notoriously underperforming Canes are yet again ranked in the top 10 to start the season, but appear to be the biggest potential paper tiger amongst that group (shocking, I know). Literally all of their pass catchers are gone, they’re replacing #1 overall pick Cam Ward with Carson Beck, who is coming off of major elbow surgery; they have to go play at Florida early, and it remains Mario Cristobal’s brain that will be making in-game clock management decisions this season. Gimme the under.

Louisville O 8.5 wins: If Miami falters as a true ACC and playoff contender, someone else in the league may need to step up and take their place, right? It’s true that Louisville’s quarterback is USC transfer Miller Moss who was pretty ass before getting benched last year, but I think Brian Brohm could make a bowl game with an actual raccoon playing quarterback. The schedule sets up nicely with an easy runway to get themselves into form, they get Clemson at home, and their toughest road game is at Miami, which is… not the toughest place to play in America. Give me the Cards to get to 9 wins.

Nebraska O 7.5 wins: I know, I know. What am I doing here? But as I’ve made clear in the past, I’m a big believer in Matt Rhule’s ability to get a program rolling within a few years of his tenure, and the Big Ten is going to be wiiiiide open. It’s possible that QB Dylan Raiola ate over 400 meatball subs this offseason (many are saying this!), but I’m betting the experience he gained in his freshman year allows him to take the next step this season. There are questions on defense for sure, but they also play offenses like Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Iowa in league play. Huskers get to 8.

Utah O 7.5 wins: After 37 years, the Cam Rising saga is over in Salt Lake, and New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier steps in to potentially fix the offense. I think the QB purgatory the Utes have been in the past few years has people underestimating Kyle Wittingham’s squad this year - they always play good defense, they can always run the ball, and they might finally have a truly dynamic quarterback for the first time in ages. I’m hammering this one, I think Utah is a playoff sleeper.

UTEP O 6.5 wins: Allow me to get on Demon Time real quick ladies and gents - I’m rocking with UTEP this season. According to Bill Connelly at ESPN, the Miners are set to play ten games this year that are currently projected to have spreads with 5 points. Former 5-star QB Malachi Nelson is taking the reins, and while he might be terrible given he transferred from USC to Boise State and then didn’t even win that job, that simply doesn’t fit my narrative here. Ride the Miners with me folks.

Syracuse O 5.5 wins: Are we serious here? Fran Brown comes in and wins 9 games in year one, and now the Orange are projected to miss a bowl game? Sure the schedule is tough and QB Kyle McCord is gone, but the vibes could not be much better up there, and Syracuse will be 2-1 at worst in late September. I am highly confident a Fran Brown team can win just 4 out of their final 9 games to get to 6.

Arkansas U 5.5 wins: As much as I love him, I think this will be the end of the line for Sam Pittman in Fayetteville. The Hogs play at Memphis and host Notre Dame in their out of conference slate (what the hell are y’all doing man?), travel to Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, and Texas. But the main reason I’m going under is because this team is absolutely toast if QB Taylen Green misses any time with injury, and that is incredibly possible considering that already happened last year, and that they’ll need him using his legs a ton to keep up with the teams on their schedule.

Georgia O 9.5: Kirby’s worst team since his first year went 10-2 and won the SEC last year while playing Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss all on the road. Now we get all of those teams at home, and this squad is going to be vastly improved from last year if you ask me. Mega Ultra Hammer.

Where in the World Are We?

Rand: I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, but why I pay rent is beyond me, and my financial advisor, who may or may not be my father. After a week and a half in Charleston and Baltimore, I finally returned to Charlotte for one whole night. Now I’m off to Bald Head Island, straight to Cali for 4 days, then a redeye on which will put me in Winston the day of Wake’s first game against Kennesaw State next Friday. If that’s nuts, just wait until football season starts…

Tate: Over the past month, I have been in Laguna Beach, Maui, Puerto Rico, and Indianapolis. King Arthur himself could not pull me off my couch this weekend.

We hope you have a great weekend welcoming the return of the greatest sport on planet earth. Talk to you next week. 

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.