I Ain't Saying That We Back or Nothing...

Look up the title reference Boomers, but it’s great to officially say: Good morning and welcome back to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. It’s been approximately 7 months since our last newsletter, and in case you’ve been living under a rock or your dopamine addiction is leading to chronic brain fog, we’ve prepared a comprehensive list of all the things that have happened since we last spoke:

• Fardow became a footnote in an AP US History textbook

• Two-time Miss Maine runner-up Jordon Hudson thrust herself into the center of attention and the hearts of all geriatric men out there

• George Foreman died - RIP

• Duke’s entire starting five got drafted two months after blowing a 6-point lead with a minute left in the Final Four

• The Hawk Tuah girl came out of hiding after scamming thousands of Barstool Bros

• Rand moved to Charlotte

• 100 private jets flew to Italy for Jeff Bezos’ wedding - hope you signed a prenup this time

• Tate planned a wedding that is happening in the near future. Other than that…not much else has happened. Mainstream media has had nothing to talk about!

Well, actually a lot has happened in college football, and that’s all that matters in the world - unless you’re Elon Musk, who’s mentally and possibly physically on Mars right now. It’s also exactly why we’re here. We’re still figuring out the cadence and our plans for the fall, but that’s a problem for later. Let’s bring you up to speed on what we’re thinking about as the calendar melts into the worst part of the sports calendar, unless you’re looking forward to the Little League World Series or the NFL preseason, in which case you need to be admitted.

The ‘We’re Back’ List

We’re not here to be monotonous or mundane, so if you want your list of top games to look forward to or Heisman watch lists, go to ESPN’s website, or stick around through the summer with us. We’re going to put a spin on catching you up on all things college football as we steamroll our way to the season, which is a mere 47 days away, or less than the age gap between Jordon Hudson and Bill Belichick. Sorry, we can’t help ourselves.

Here’s a list of the top “Are They Back Teams” and a blurb on their outlook heading into the season. In other words, these teams are almost guaranteed to be in the preseason top 25 of any major publication this year and the next decade-plus just because they were good 30 years ago. 

USC: The Trojans finished the 1995 season (again, this list is an unofficial ‘We’re Back’ list because they were good 30 years ago, plus or minus 15 years) #11 in the AP Poll after beating Northwestern in the Rose Bowl behind WR Keyshawn Johnson. Presently, they are still trying to find their footing under wonderboy head coach Lincoln Riley, who is only owed a mere $90 million for the next eight years. It’s time to show some ROI after a meager 7-6 Big 10 debut in Riley’s first year in LA without Caleb Williams. After being behind the 8-ball during the advent of NIL, they seemed to have gotten their horses in a row and currently hold the #1 recruiting class for next year. This level of recruiting is reminiscent of the Pete Carroll era, but even with the transfer portal, top teams need to stack classes year after year, particularly in a conference with Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, et al. This year, Riley officially turns the reins (I’m full of puns today, all not intended) over to QB Jayden Maiava, who supplanted Miller Moss (now at Louisville) in the back half of the year. They’ll put up points, but a completely revamped defense might limit their ceiling, especially given they have to travel to Notre Dame, Oregon, Illinois, and Nebraska. This is a building year as the hype train will crank up to max volume next summer if they can hold onto their recruiting class.

Miami: Butch Davis & LB Ray Lewis led the Canes to a #20 ranking in the final 1995 AP Poll but I don’t think we need to tell you what Miami accomplished in the previous decade or in the early 2000’s to merit inclusion on this list. Since then, it’s been a whole bunch of overpromising & undelivering as they have still yet to win an ACC Championship or make the playoff. QB Carson Beck is here from Georgia but lost his influencer girlfriend and Lamborghini in the process, but we’re shedding crocodile tears for him as he’s reportedly making $4.3 million, which is equal to what the 23rd pick in last year’s draft is making. As is the case with Miami every single year, they’ve got all the talent in the world, but it remains to be seen if they can live up to their potential and avoid inexplicable losses to inferior teams, which they did twice last year vs Georgia Tech & Syracuse. Until head coach Mario Cristobal proves otherwise, we don’t think he has the chops to lead Miami to the promised land, instead, he’s been about as reliable as the spotter for the Titanic. We look forward to CTRL+C, CTRL+V-ing this blurb next year.

Florida State: The Seminoles and Bobby Bowden finished 4th in the 1995 AP Poll after stumbling in Charlottesville to Tiki Barber & the Hoos and later to Spurrier’s Gators. RB Warrick Dunn was a stud while Peter Warrick and Randy Moss were on this team, but too young to play because of archaic rules regarding freshmen. Florida State is coming off a 2-10 campaign with rousing, inspirational wins over Cal and Charleston Southern. After bringing in DJU via Clemson and Oregon State, he turned out to be a bigger flop than Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell. To rectify their offense and potentially save Mike Norvell’s job - he’s owed a paltry $63.8 million - they brought in Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos who recently proclaimed he “tore the ACC up” and when asked about their season opener vs Alabama he said, “They don’t have Nick Saban to save them…I just don’t see them stopping me.” If tearing up the ACC means beating Florida State and losing to Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Louisville while averaging less than 200 yards/game then sure man, talk your shit. We definitely won’t bring those comments back up at any point during the upcoming season.

Nebraska: The 1995 Cornhuskers, led by head coach Tom Osborne and QB Tommie Frazier, are regarded as one of the best college football teams of all time as they annihilated everyone en route to a national championship. They got one more in 1997, and since then, it’s been as bland and insipid as Mike Pence. Sophomore QB Dylan Raiola and transfer WR Dane Key (Kentucky) will be asked to carry the brunt of the offensive workload, but the main reason for optimism is head coach Matt Rhule’s track record of turning programs around in Year 3 - sans the eternally hopeless Carolina Panthers. Year 3 at Temple resulted in a 10-3 record, and at Baylor, he led them to a Sugar Bowl with an 11-2 record. A favorable schedule means an at-large playoff berth is possible, but we’ve heard ‘this is the year’ for Nebraska for our entire lives, but the on-field results yielded the same result as the Irish Potato Famine. Let’s learn some basic motor functions before we start asking what the world record mile time is, first, Nebraska.

Florida: Nebraska’s opponent in the 1995 Fiesta Bowl? The Florida Gators and Spurrier’s fun & gun offense with QB Danny Wuerffel. Do they deserve merit on this list even though they have 2 national championships since then? Absolutely, Tim Tebow is 37 years old, and if I’m dragging Miami and Florida State, I’m certainly not giving a pass to the most insufferable of the fanbases. Much like Nebraska, the story of the 2025 Gators will be told based on the performance of former 5-star QB DJ Lagway, who has a shiny new toy in the form of 5-star WR Dallas Wilson. However, their schedule is ruthless with trips to LSU, Texas A&M, and Miami in addition to hosting Texas, Tennessee, and, of course, Georgia in Jacksonville. Is 7-5 enough to save Billy Napier’s job? He’s owed a comparatively palatable $27 million, which is roughly half the GDP of Tuvalu.

Tennessee: The Vols’ lone blemish on their 1995 record was a loss to Florida, but they had Peyton Manning, so again, crocodile tears. If CBS is looking for a replacement for The Young & The Restless, our free and unsolicited advice is a Hard Knocks-style documentary on UT’s athletic department would win Emmys…plural. UT boosters gave QB Nico Iamaleava $8 million and were rewarded with a playoff berth last year but were blown off the field by Ohio State. A few months ago, Nico and his prototypical QB father asked for more money, to which Tennessee told him to shove it. Nico is now at UCLA, and Joey Aguilar comes over from…UCLA. Their schedule is a piece of cake compared to Florida, but an unproven QB and guaranteed off-field distractions make UT a fascinating watch for the year, but don’t expect much more out of them than a Music City Bowl bid.

Auburn: The Tigers finished #22 in the 1995 AP Poll, but we’ll cut them some slack because we’re less than a decade from their 13-0 2004 season, and Cam Newton followed shortly thereafter. That being said, we formally apologize to the CBS executives for not mentioning that Auburn might be an even better documentary topic than Tennessee, but you can’t go wrong with either. Hugh Freeze has to do something because his holier-than-thou* coach speak is wearing thin on The Plains, given his 11-14 record in two seasons. However, this will be the most talented team he’s had during his tenure after Bryan Harsin left him with dog water. WRs Cam Coleman and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. are perhaps the best tandem in the nation, while QB Jackson Arnold comes in from Oklahoma and looks to live up to his 5-star billing. Another bowl-less record this year should kickstart Freeze’s future career as a motivational speaker at far-right gigachurches…or Congress.

*Freeze was popped at Ole Miss for calling escorts on a university phone, along with other on and off the field violations (some of them sexual in nature), but then he went to Liberty and acts like all sins are forgiven…literally.

Wisconsin: The Badgers didn’t even make a bowl game 30 years ago, but four years later, they had RB Ron Dayne running roughshod over the entire country on his way to the Heisman, so they get the nod on this infallible list. The Luke Fickell experiment has not gone according to plan following his highly-touted hiring just 2 years ago. The offensive coordinator position has been a revolving door after Phil Longo got the boot because shockingly, running a hyper up-tempo and gimmicky offense doesn’t work when you’re entire institutional identity is built on running the ball and winning in the trenches. Here’s a leading question for ya: What was the last Maryland football game you remember watching, if ever? Well, enter QB Billy Edwards Jr, who is in Madison after a 3-year stint in College Park. Making a bowl game would be a rousing success for the Badgers this year given they have trips to Tuscaloosa, Eugene, and Ann Arbor in addition to hosting Ohio State. Good luck, Bucky & Billy.

Combined playoff appearances between these teams: 2 (Tennessee & Florida State) - remember, the playoff has been around since 2014.

National Championships this century: 7, but none since 2013 (Florida State)

I did not look up any preseason top 25 lists before compiling this list, but after some research, the hit rate was decent. The college football preview magazine, Lindy’s, has 3/8 in their top 25 but 7/8 if you include their top 37 teams - lol Wisconsin. Athlon and The Athletic also had 3/8 teams listed, while ESPN only had 2/8, so a hat tip to you, Mark Schlabach.

The Projected Worst Teams Heading into the Year

It’s not all sunshine and rainbows in the real world, which is why people do everything they can to stay on Love Island for as long as possible. Do they even know about Alligator Alzactraz? Per VegasInsider.com, here are the worst Power 4 teams heading into the season based on win totals and a reason for optimism. 

Purdue O/U 2.5: The Ryan Walters experiment in West Lafayette was a bust, but it certainly wasn’t for a lack of talent. The Boilermakers have had their roster ransacked by high-major programs like Oregon, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M. They went out and got proven winner Barry Odom as the new coach, who breathed life into UNLV’s corpse of a program and led Mizzou to a few winning seasons beforehand. They were able to hold onto stub RB David Mockobee, but their only other returning starter is their kicker. Keep your eye on Georgia transfer Nitro Tuggle, who lived up to his name by driving 107 through Athens, GA, but is a former 4-star wideout. Our money is on them beating Ball State and Southern Illinois to open the season and being able to steal one against Minnesota, Northwestern, or Rutgers.  

Stanford O/U 3.5: You know how the NFL is just a big cesspool of retreads for head coaches and quarterbacks? Well, step aside North Carolina because the 33^rd NFL team might actually be Stanford. After hiring Andrew Luck as their GM and firing head coach Troy Taylor in March for workplace misconduct (read: this dumbass pr*** was investigated twice for his conduct towards female staffers – that’s not going to fly at Stanford bud) Luck hired his old Colts coach Frank Reich who was last seen leading the Panthers to a 1-10 record in 2023. 4-star QB Elijah Brown might be a stud, but every team on the schedule has to be licking their chops at facing Stanford this year. 

Mississippi State O/U 3.5: The Bulldogs should boast a strong offense behind QB Blake Shapen, but the guy to watch here is South Alabama RB transfer Fluff Bothwell, who we swear is the real deal, and not just for his name. Their defense was a disaster last year, which we quickly learned after they lost 41-17 to Toledo in their third game last year. We don’t expect the offensive-minded head coach Jeff Lebby to solve much here, so enjoy cashing those buyout checks, Jeff.

Northwestern O/U 3.5: Death, taxes, corruption in South American dictatorships, and Northwestern having an offense that sets college football back 75 years. We’ll continue to trust the Wildcats to field an above-average defense, but there’s actually a glimmer of hope on the horizon on the North Side, and I’m not talking about the fact that the Cubs are leading the NL Central at the time of writing. QB Preston Stone set the AAC on fire for SMU 2 years ago before being passed over for Ken Jennings, who led the Mustangs to a playoff berth but was last seen playing catch with Penn State’s secondary. Anyways, maybe SMU was onto something, and Stone is damaged goods, but there’s nowhere to go but up. If not, they’ve got a swanky new stadium opening up…in 2026.

Oklahoma State O/U 4.5: Last year, the Cowboys started off 3-0 before sinking faster than Daniel Plainview’s fortunes in There Will Be Blood en route to losing their remaining 9 games. Mike Gundy still exists, and it’s hard to count him out, but he needs to figure out the QB position. Thankfully, the charade of him trying to start his son is over as Gunnar Gundy is now at D-II Emporia State, while transfers litter the offensive depth chart along with a new offensive coordinator. And holy hell, Todd Grantham is here as the new defensive coordinator. I’ll spare you the details but he’s known as one of the biggest assholes in the industry with a spotty track record of success at the college and NFL levels. Here’s an excerpt from his Wikipedia page, and before you read it, I’m obligated to remind you there are 32 NFL teams. “2004 was a break-out year for the Texans. Grantham's line once again made a major contribution, helping the Texans achieve the 13th ranked run defense in the league.”

Arizona O/U 4.5: After shocking the nation with a 10-3 record in 2023, the Wildcats came back to earth with a 4-8 record, which isn’t that surprising given their entire offense was throw the ball to Tet McMillan, who went 8^th overall to the Panthers. McMillan is a stud, but he’s not Calvin Johnson at Georgia Tech. The ‘Cats still have QB Noah Fifita, who has an NFL future, but with two new coordinators under 2nd-year man Brent Brennan, there are a lot of unknowns throughout this roster. However, men are simple creatures, and we’re infatuated with the fact they have a left guard named Chubba and a left tackle named Rhino, which masks a lot of the deficiencies we’d note otherwise.

Wake Forest O/U 4.5: Our betting advice is notoriously sketchy, but you can take out a mortgage on us having much more on Wake Forest heading into the season. But in case you missed the national news last December, Dave Clawson retired as Wake’s head coach and was replaced by Jake Dickert of Washington State. Dickert was thrust into the head coach role at Wazzu after Nick Rolovich was fired for refusing to take the COVID shot and then navigated the Cougs through the dissolution of the Pac-12. Despite all that, he still managed to lead them to a very respectable 23-20 record in 3.5 years. For reference, Clawson’s record at Wake was 67-69, and people want to build a statue erected yesterday (we don’t disagree). Dickert’s track record includes bringing Cam Ward in from Incarnate Word before he went to Miami, as well as QB John Mateer, who is now at Oklahoma and among the betting favorites for the Heisman this year. As with any coaching change, a lot of roster turnover came with the move, and there is very little we know about the Deacs heading into the season, outside of RB Demond Claiborne, who was being courted by blue bloods to jump in the portal. A soft nonconference schedule of Delaware, Kennesaw State, and Western Carolina means the Deacs should be able to fly past this win total, but we’ll have more to say on this topic in due time.

Last year, 11 teams in the Power 4 finished with 4 wins or less, so there’s plenty of room for growth by the end of the season, looking at you again Florida State!

We hope you had a fun & safe 4th of July, and we’ll talk with you again soon.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse, Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.