My Eyes are Bleeding & Everyone Sucks: Week 9 Preview

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Good morning and welcome back to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Tate is off this week doing important adult stuff (supposedly), which means you’re stuck with Rand for the duration of this newsletter. Being unchecked and unsupervised is one scary proposition, but don’t worry, I’m not going to rip apart the East Wing of the White House or threaten to kill one our our most venerable and important institutions (NASA), but I will give some shoddy betting advice and rag on some teams I have no affiliation with because that’s what I do best. Onward!

Week 9 Games to Watch

Do you want your eyes to bleed? Same. That’s why I’ll be tuned into Cal @ Virginia Tech on Friday night with a second screen on North Texas @ Charlotte. Virginia Tech’s pass defense is as nonexistent as their program has been since Michael Vick left, while Cal still has my boy QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who is going through freshman growing pains. Essentially, he’s running around like a chicken thanks to his horrible OL and throwing balls he shouldn’t to receivers who can’t catch. I think it’s more fun when he’s this erratic and unpredictable, instead of, what, a coherent offensive game plan and execution? Boring! North Texas might hang 70 on a Charlotte team that hasn’t gotten any positive momentum since moving up to FBS a decade ago. Maybe it’s because they changed their name from UNCC or got into bed with Jerry Richardson and accepted all his grimy money. Maybe it’s also not a coincidence that the Carolina Panthers have also been the most irrelevant NFL franchise of the last decade, not named the Jets. 

The only reason your eyes should be bleeding on Saturday is either because you watched Lady Gaga at the 2009 MTV Music Awards or you have 4-5 screens rolling for this noon slate. Either one is worth it. Spunky and funky UCLA heads to Bloomington to face #2 Indiana, where their three-game Cinderella run is likely to come to an end, but don’t put it past the Bruins and QB Nico Iamaleava to keep this one close. In a marquee matchup of the day, #8 Ole Miss travels to #13 Oklahoma to face the Sooners' vaunted defense and Charmin offense. This is a de facto playoff elimination game, and there are going to be a lot of happy people in Gainesville if Kiffin loses here. I’m interested to see if Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss can do anything against this defense or if this is a 24-13 slug fest.

In the not-boring-offense category, we have #16 Virginia heading to UNC, where we might see a beatdown. During the Heels' bye week, when every news outlet in the world wrote an expose on Bill Belichick, a story came out that Lombardi and Billy B didn’t think then-transfer portal target Chandler Morris was good enough to make it in the NFL and therefore at UNC. Belichick has since said he never recruited Morris and has given the keys to QB Gio Lopez, who ranks 129th in the nation in QBR and has 3 passing TDs on the year. Morris, by the way, ranks 24th in QBR nationally and has 11 passing TDs. Another game that might result in a beatdown is Arkansas hosting Auburn. This is a horrible spot for Auburn and coach Hugh Freeze, who spent the past week asking his AD for a vote of confidence, which never came. Bobby Petrino, meanwhile, will put the hammer down here if the game allows for it. Auburn might be joining the coaching carousel come high noon on Sunday. Keep your eyes on the Dillons Sunflower Showdown between Kansas State and Kansas in Lawrence. Yes, this rivalry is sponsored by a grocery store…per Google. The main reason this game is on here is because Kansas hasn’t won since 2008 and is a field goal favorite. But more importantly, the one Kansas reader of ours (to my knowledge) was last seen on Instagram shooting hoops at the Dubrovnik Castle. Let’s see how dedicated this Jayhawks fan is and if this shoutout gets to him or if he’d rather sip Aperol Spritz by the Adriatic Sea. 

And finally, for the noon slate, we’ve got a matchup of two 6-1 American teams when #18 South Florida heads to Memphis for a potential AAC Championship preview. Memphis QB Brendon Lewis might not be able to go here, and they’ll need him if they have any chance of keeping up with QB Byrum Brown and the killer USF offense. Alright, back to eyes bleeding and questionable life choices: 5-2 Northwestern is in Lincoln to face 5-2 Nebraska, which is marginally better than walking into traffic. 

The afternoon slate: we start off with the College GameDay game in what is also a playoff elimination matchup. #15 Mizzou is in Nashville to face #10 Vanderbilt and QB Diego Pavia. We’ll be looking to see how well whatever frat guy gets selected for McAfee’s kick for a ridiculous amount of money does because Vandy kickers held kicking lessons on the quad to help these kids learn how to kick. Pro tip from a 2-year varsity football kicker whose team won 2 games in as many years: don’t toe it. Elsewhere in the SEC, South Carolina is the latest program in #4 Alabama’s warpath. Kalen DeBoer will probably wear his black hoodie of death, and South Carolina might muster an entire touchdown on offense. #22 Texas and Farce Manning (hey, just came up with that, I need to file a patent) are in Starkville to face the cowbells and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs really need RB Fluff Bothwell to play here, but Texas makes up for their nonexistent offense with a defense from hell, so it may not matter. 

Over in the Big 10, we’ve got another 5-2 v 5-2 matchup as Iowa hosts Minnesota. Both teams only boast one loss in conference and can play spoiler in the conference championship should Ohio State or Indiana slip up. Not likely, but worth monitoring the situation here, especially given tiebreaker situations. #23 Illinois heads to Husky Stadium to face Washington. We’ve spilled a lot of ink about how Washington’s offense is soooooo good and you need to remember these three names. Yeah, well they’ve looked phenomenal against Rutgers and Washington State and like shit against everyone else. I’m done with the Huskies. Bury these con artists, Illini. To close out the slate, we’ve got an ACC matchup freshly caught from the concrete banks of the Los Angeles River. NC State fans are currently campaigning for the Wolfpack to lose out so they can fire Dave Doeren but also recognize they have the talent to go 5-0 the rest of the way. Pitt doesn’t have a win over a team with a winning record (I’m not counting 4-3 Central Michigan because it goes against my narrative), but the Panthers somehow find themselves at 5-2. Their injury report is littered with their best players, but leave it to Pat Narduzzi to pull some trash out of his ass and win an ugly game here. Pitt would also like to fade down the stretch and fire their coach, but not everyone can have nice things! Either way, the winner here is likely to be just as happy as the loser…somehow.

Speaking of teams that would love to lose so they can cut bait with their deadbeat coach, let’s head to Baton Rouge. #20 LSU welcomes #3 Texas A&M into Death Valley at night, where Brian Kelly is fighting for his life every time he steps behind a mic. Texas A&M has one of the best resumes in the sport and already has a win in South Bend under its belt. For the third consecutive week of writing this newsletter, if TAMU wins here, you should take them seriously as a national championship contender. They’re still underrated. #25 Michigan heads to East Lansing in the 10-year anniversary of the ‘oh, he has trouble with the snap’ game. Michigan State is also very, very bad and might be on capital Q, Quit watch, but little brother always gets up when big bro rolls into town. And finally, if these games are blowouts, turn to Houston @ #24 Arizona State as the Cougs are rolling under Willie Fritz and face the team that just knocked off presumed Big 12 champion Texas Tech. Our late-night, sicko game of the weekend heads to one of the best atmospheres in college football, Rice-Eccles Stadium. Colorado is in town to face Utah, which has a busted lip and hurt feelings after losing to BYU and might be without starting QB Devon Dampier. 

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OnlyRans

Last Week: 4-5 // Season Record: 33-42 (44%)

Last week, my plan of fading myself yielded better results than my previous two weeks of a combined 5-15, but I’m still not satisfied. Hell, I was sitting at 52% before this three-week slide. Should I have faded my own thinking that Rutgers and Wisconsin would keep it close against Oregon & Ohio State? Of course not, but I stayed the course. This week, we’re back to our regularly scheduled programming, except I’m going to pick smarter and sharper. Will it work? Of course. What makes you think it won’t? 

Iowa State -2.5 v #11 BYU: A few weeks ago, the undefeated Cyclones were underdogs to Cincinnati and Colorado, and I wisely picked the Cyclones to cover and proclaimed Vegas doesn’t know shit. They lost both. Now they’re the favorites against the Big 12’s best team in undefeated BYU? I guess Vegas sees an evenly matched game and gives the edge to the Cyclones as the home team. Don’t fail me, Vegas.  

Oregon -31.5 v Wisconsin: Will Wisconsin score a point for the first time since October 4th? My sharp mind thinks…nah. 

Stanford +29.5 @ Miami: I don’t think the wheels are falling off for the Canes, but I do know Stanford is frisky, hasn’t quit on their season (unlike Florida State), and Miami will pull their starters early to rest up for their trip to SMU next week. 

Colorado +13.5 @ Utah: Don’t love the Buffs heading into Rice-Eccles Stadium at night, but I do love the fact they’re 3-1 ATS in their last four and the lone loss was by half a point. They keep these games close, and Buffs QB Kaidon Salter gets better each week. 

Colorado State +5.5 @ Wyoming: I saw a stat on Twitter this week that teams are like 7-1 ATS after their coach gets fired. I could look it up or do the math myself, but that’s for dweebs. Colorado State fired Jay Norvell last weekend, and their QB just entered the portal. We call this a dead cat bounce. 

North Texas -26.5 @ Charlotte: The American’s #1 scoring offense vs #14…out of 14. 

Texas A&M -2.5 @ LSU: Yeah, yeah, Brian Kelly is 15-1 in Death Valley at night or whatever but I do not trust this LSU team. Their QB has an oblique injury that severely limits his ability to push the ball downfield (sources say that is important), and their rushing attack is second-worst in the conference. 

UCLA +25.5 @ Indiana: Maybe my judgment is hindered by my inability to believe Indiana is this good. Or maybe Vegas still doesn’t believe in the midseason turnaround by UCLA, which is on a three-game win streak. Either way, this is a ton of points for the Hoosiers. 

Ole Miss +5.5 @ Oklahoma & Under 54.5: This is also a ton of points for the Sooners against an Ole Miss team that’s sputtering but talented. Also, the Sooners haven’t scored more than 26 points against P4 competition. Is Mateer still injured, are they playing conservatively, or do they suck. Probably all three. 

Tate’s Great Picks

Last Week: 4-3 // Season Record: 25-30 (45%)

Cal +5.5 @ Virginia Tech

Ole Miss +5.5 @ Oklahoma

UVA -10.5 @ UNC

USF -4.5 @ Memphis

Mississippi State +7 v Texas

Oregon -31.5 v Wisconsin

Texas A&M -2.5 @ LSU

Tweet(s) of the Week

Oh, you thought I wouldn’t do anything off the wall with 50% of 4th & Forever LLC out of the picture this week? Well, welcome to a new segment I’m calling Tweet of the Week, where I explain something hilarious I saw on Twitter this week. Should you read this if you are on Twitter? Yes, because I promise you, unless your name is Tate, you’re probably not on Twitter as much as I am. It’s where I get all my news on current events, sports, and politics without fear of algorithms showing me posts I’m more likely to agree with. Unsubjective, unfiltered, unbiased: Twitter. I should trademark that too. 

Anyway, I’m sure you’re familiar with the phenomenon known as Calgorithm from last year's college football season. Well, those accounts still exist and post incredible content. With Cal heading to Blacksburg on Friday, a Virginia Tech account @vt_isyourdaddy posted an AI photo (below) of a Hokie saying, “we must defeat communism”. The Calgorithm then promptly flamed this guy into oblivion by calling how horrible the AI photo was, and how he’s not a true patriot for not having a bumpstock on his AR-15. Two posts and two days before this, the same Hokie account posted a selfie with his now-fiancée after they got engaged. Below are some of the replies from the Calgorithm:

“PEOPLE OF BLACKSBURG: Cal's WOKE ENFORCEMENT unit is TAKING YOUR GUNS this weekend! You MUST place all firearms in our rainbow bins conveniently located throughout VaTech's campus. YOUR GUNS will be confiscated and DESTROYED for your safety! Thanks for your prompt compliance.” @AdmiralBear01

“Will they receive free vaccines when turning in their guns?” @LABMcKay

“For this low effort AI meme, we bestow upon you this honor: the Participation Trophy. Way to go! Thanks for getting out there, trying your best, and learning a lot along the way! Nice job!” @AdmiralBear01

Also, this one…just for good measure.

“August 1st 2023:

UNC, FSU, and Clemson vote against Cal, Stanford, and SMU into the ACC. 

October 18th 2025:

Cal 21 - UNC 18 

SMU 35 - Clemson 24

Stanford 20 - FSU 13” @RyanJosephData

Maybe this will just become a weekly Calgorithm feature. Never kill this beautiful creation, Mr. Musk. 

Wake Forest

SMU (5-2) @ Wake Forest (4-2): SMU -3.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET The CW

The Deacs host the Stangs in what has become a massive spot for both teams. The Deacs will consider bowl eligibility a success - and attainable goal - for year 1 of the Dickert era. They’ve got road trips to Duke, Virginia, and Florida State (will they be favored??) with home games left against Delaware and UNC.  They can get there without this one, but this game is gettable. SMU, meanwhile, is sitting undefeated and tied atop the ACC with a real shot to get the ACC Championship and sneak back into the playoff. They’re coming off a win over Clemson in Death Valley, but host Miami next week in Dallas. This is the trappiest trap game of all trap games for the Stangs. Also, it might be announced by the time you read this, but I think Wake might be debuting some special throwback uniforms, perhaps with the flying WF.

SMU’s QB Kevin Jennings is still here, and while he’s not a runner, he’s mobile and can extend plays with his legs. Jennings is the conference’s second-leading passer (behind Duke’s Mensah) but also has 7 picks on the year. No one on this team will blow you away, and there’s not one player on the offensive side that you have to key in on. They’re solid all the way around, and Wake is going to have to play a complete game to win this one. In their losses to TCU and Baylor, they got in a shootout and couldn’t keep up, but in their other five (and unimpressive) wins, they held everyone to 24 points or less. 

I don’t think the Deacs have a QB controversy, as Robbie Ashford seems like he will regain the starting spot after missing the Oregon State game with a thumb injury. However, if Deshawn Purdie starts or we see him at any point for non-injury reasons, I wouldn’t be stunned. Coming off the bye, the Deacs are reportedly healthy (namely RB and LT), and have been watching the Stangs for 2 weeks now. I think this is going to be a really close game, and Vegas agrees with me - perhaps for the first time ever.

I don’t have a compelling reason to despise SMU, but I’m foaming at the mouth to change that. Ideally, not in the form of a loss, but I’m guessing they have incredibly annoying, entitled fans. Learned that lesson real quick with Pitt and the sewer rat fans I encountered at the ACC Championship. Don’t even get me started on Louisville. SMU has yet to lose an ACC game since being thrown a life raft by the conference. I’d be honored to send them off in their private jets and Labubu-clad Gucci purses with their first one. Let’s stomp the shit out of SMU and their dumb Lil’ Sebastian-ass pony. Deacs by a million. Don’t text me if we lose. 

Where in the World is Rand?

Rand: Where else do you think? Go Deacs.

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.