Not Even Shown on Death Row: Week 8 Preview

Good morning and welcome back to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. If you find yourself in Japan this weekend, you can ask the bartender to turn it to Rakuten's R Channel to watch the Hawai’i - Colorado State matchup. That’s because the ‘Tokyo Toe’ or Hawai’i kicker Kansei Matsuzawa is one of the best kickers in the nation and taught himself how to kick via YouTube. He’s getting it done and is close to breaking the school’s single-season field goal mark. You know who’s not getting it done? James Franklin (Penn State), Jonathan Smith (Michigan State), Luke Fickell (Wisconsin), Billy Napier (Florida), Hugh Freeze (Auburn), Mike Norvell (Florida State), and Mark Stoops (Kentucky), to name a few. If you add up their cumulative buyouts you’d surpass the GDP of the Marshall Islands. Throw in a few more buyouts that have already been paid at Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, and Arkansas, and we’re talking Kiribati and Palau levels of gross domestic product. Cool! Someone is going to have to replace these guys, and there isn’t a more important hire a P4 school can make than their college football coach, especially what’s coming down the pipeline with conference realignment, playoff expansion, private equity infusion, and the second ending to the Mayan calendar, but this time they’re serious! But other than that, college football is as dramatic, unpredictable, and entertaining as ever.

Quick Week 7 Recap

One coach who did the exact opposite of the coaches listed above was Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, who took his Hoosiers into Autzen Stadium and whipped Oregon by ten in what was easily the win of the year thus far. There are not enough words in the English language to describe the job Cignetti has done at Indiana in the first 1.5 years of his tenure. He’s taken a historically irrelevant program and turned them into a legitimate national title contender in year two after making the playoff in year one. One of the great things about this new era of college football is, after Penn State’s firing of James Franklin, Cignetti’s name was instantly thrown around as a potential replacement, and in decades past, that would have made a lot of sense. But why would he leave Indiana for Penn State now? Indiana has backed up a truckload of NIL and staff retention money, and Cignetti, 64, is just as likely to have a statue built for him in Bloomington as he is to get canned in Happy Valley as a 70th birthday present. What an unbelievable win, and what a remarkable job he has done there so far. This ain’t last year’s Indiana, it certainly ain’t last century’s Indiana, and this guy isn’t going to leave. Congrats Hoosier fans.

The Red River Shootout took place down in Dallas in what many are now calling an “SEC game”, and while we were right in our prediction that there wouldn’t be a lot of points scored, we were surprised by basically everything else about it. For one, we wrote our entire preview about how Oklahoma would be without QB John Mateer due to the surgery he had on his hand, like, 72 hours ago. Well, Mateer played, and it almost instantly looked like one of the worst coaching decisions of 2025. Mateer clearly had no zip on his throws, and the wound from his surgery ripped open and started bleeding f*cking everywhere in the first half. Oklahoma, therefore, had zero shot against Texas’s very good defense, and all it took was a couple of nice plays from Arch and a punt return TD to get the job done for the Horns. Good win for Texas that keeps them alive in the SEC and playoff races, but what the hell were y’all thinking, Oklahoma?

Elsewhere down south, Alabama took down Missouri in what was a fun, back-and-forth game that ultimately the better team was able to put away. Missouri is good, but not great, and we’re starting to think that Alabama might be great. Texas A&M beat Florida in a fashion that should have us all beginning to think about the societal collapse the state of Texas would endure if the Aggies hoisted a national championship trophy. Tennessee held on to beat Bobby Petrino’s Arkansas in an affair that was more of a “Xanax and whiskey” vibe than a football game, while LSU beat South Carolina in a game that had both fanbases ready to hurl themselves in front of a moving train.

In the Big 12, we have a winner. Not a frontrunner, a winner. Texas Tech is so much better than everybody else in that league that commissioner Brett Yormark should legitimately consider just shutting the Red Raiders down for the rest of the season to avoid any chaos that could cause the league to become even more irrelevant come playoff time. Tech is already way more talented than anyone else in the league and is recruiting (read: spending comical amounts of money) at a level that no other Big 12 program is even sniffing. Great stuff TTU - we will see you in the playoffs very shortly.

The other noteworthy matchups in the Big Ten were both blowouts, with USC trouncing Michigan to stay alive in the conference and playoff race, while Ohio State stepped on Illinois' neck and kept its foot there until the Illini suffocated to death. The Buckeyes are gonna do that quite a bit this year.

The only interesting thing that happened in the ACC was Pitt giving Florida State their third loss, which, now that I’ve typed it, seems so uninteresting that I refuse to write another sentence about it. To Week 8 we go.

The Five Week 8 Games to Watch

#10 LSU (5-1) @ #17 Vanderbilt (5-1): Vandy -2.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

That’s right baby, we’ve got the Vanderbilt Commodores in a major spot on ABC, as a favorite over #10 LSU. The ‘Dores did take a tough loss at Alabama a couple of weeks ago, but Vandy’s prior 5-0 start is far from a fluke. There’s not much more we can say about Diego Pavia that you don’t already know at this point, but guys like Junior Sherrill and Eli Stowers have really emerged as legitimate threats for any team in the SEC to deal with, and the defense remains stingy and very well-coached. We can’t wait to watch the utter maniac that is Diego Pavia in this spot, with a chance to beat yet another SEC blue blood in Nashville.

But the reason Vandy is favored here has a good bit more to do with LSU, whose offense is somehow still in absolute shambles halfway through the season. QB Garrett Nussmeier is still making several dumb decisions every game, and the Tigers cannot run the ball at all behind an incredibly disappointing offensive line. LSU beat South Carolina 20-10 last week, but it certainly was not pretty - Nussmeier threw two horrid picks and again, LSU just could not get anything going on the ground to pull away from a Gamecock offense that never threatened to even really compete. Just like what happened against Ole Miss a few weeks ago, this shit show of an offense is going to come back to bite them, and we think that’ll happen again sooner rather than later. Vandy is the more complete team here, and while the LSU defense likely has enough talent to keep this thing close into the 4th quarter, we have way more faith in Pavia’s ability to come up with big, clutch plays than we do LSU’s and Nussmeier’s at this point. The LSU fanbase might be trying to shove Brian Kelly to the front of the coaching guillotine should he lose to Vanderbilt, and frankly, we’re here to see it. Go ‘Dores. 

#5 Ole Miss (6-0) @ #9 Georgia (5-1): UGA -8.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Dawg fans, we’ll start with a few quick words on the Auburn game. There’s no need to rehash the fact that the game was officiated by a herd of donkeys, but let me briefly offer a few thoughts. A) It was a fumble. The ball was knocked loose on the first punch before Arnold crossed the plane. B) the clapping/timeout was literally irrelevant considering we received the worst makeup call in history on the next play which set us further back than a delay of game would have - and also didn’t ever need that extra timeout, and C) as others have pointed out on Twitter, it’s been hilarious to hear fans of the school whose football head coach is Hugh Freeze (and whose basketball coach was Bruce Pearl until very recently) complain, on a night where they honored CAM NEWTON, about Kirby’s “ethics”, saying that they lost respect for him because it’s clear “all he cares about is winning no matter the cost.” I mean, come on.

That kind of leads me to my overall takeaway from the weekend, and it had nothing to do with the game - I just want to call Auburn out here. On Friday at my new job, I heard yet another Auburn fan - and this is a common thing I hear from them specifically, for whatever reason - tell me that they refuse to return to Athens because people were just sooooo rude there. The insinuation was that obviously, I wouldn’t experience anything like that from the high and mighty Auburn fans. I mean they don’t act like that at all, right? That’s not The Auburn Way. It’s literally just all Georgia fans. Well, I got called multiple slurs on my walk into Jordan-Hare on Saturday, and a man tried to get me to agree to fight him as we were exiting the stadium after the game. In 2010, after Cam beat us, grown adult men were screaming at me, a child, and my father to go back to where we came from. In 2013, after the Miracle on the Plains, college students berated us as we walked back to our car. And guess what? That’s fine! That’s SEC football! Grow a pair and quit b*tching about fans being “rude” in Athens. Goodness gracious. 

Anyway, that’s exactly why I wanted to drive my ass to Auburn. There is no sweeter feeling than going to one of your rivals’ places and beating them. And dammit do we do it a lot. We’ve now won 9 straight against Auburn, including our last four in Jordan-Hare. We’re 43-1 in our last 44 games against Auburn, Florida, Georgia Tech, and Tennessee (with the only loss being the Mickey Mouse COVID Florida game where our 4th string QB took most of the snaps). No matter what happens with this team once we hit December, I hope Dawg fans are taking the time to appreciate how much we own our rivals right now. It is the best of times. F*ck Auburn.

Anyway, we’ve got #4 Ole Miss coming into town this weekend, and considering how much I wrote about Auburn above, we’ll keep this preview simple. Lane Kiffin is never going to have a “bad” team in Oxford, but this year’s squad certainly has more questions than some of his past few. For one, obviously, starting QB Austin Simmons went down. Backup Trinidad Chambliss is electric and had looked really, really good in replacement all the way up to last week’s debacle at home against Wazzu. A part of the reason for his struggles there was that, in my opinion, Ole Miss doesn’t have any of those “easy play button” types of receivers that they’ve had for Lane’s entire tenure. There’s no Elijah Moore, no Mingo and Heath, no Tre Harris on this team. Not yet, at least. Running back Kewan Lacy is a stud, but the Ole Miss offense looks like it is having a difficult time more often than they have in years past. Chambliss will get his on Saturday for sure, but I have confidence that this defense will tighten up and be flying around at home.

What this game really is, is an opportunity for our offense to prove some naysayers wrong and establish themselves as a legitimate contending threat both in the SEC, and nationally. Due to injuries up front and a couple of massive missed plays in the Alabama game, on top of our QB making his first career starts, it’s taken a bit for this team to hit their stride. But we have all the tools we need to be a really solid offense, and the OL finally seems to be rounding into full health. Ole Miss’ defense is not what it was last year, and frankly, just might not be very good. We’re at home, and it’s a revenge game. Let’s let this thing rip and have one of those wins we got so used to having over the first 7 years of Kirby’s tenure, but haven’t seen in the last couple. Let’s put up 40 and remind the country of who we are. Go Dawgs!

Third Saturday in October: #11 Tennessee (5-1) @ #6 Alabama (5-1): Bama -7.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

In what could still be yet another banger between these rivals on the Third Saturday in October, these two teams have been on seemingly opposite trajectories over the past few weeks compared to their first few. Bama infamously lost to Florida State to kick off the season, but has turned around to look like one of - if not the - best team in the country with arguably the best QB in the sport ever since. Tennessee, on the other hand, scored checks notes one gazillion points in their first three games, but ended that third game in overtime with a loss to Georgia. Since then, Tennessee has gone wire-to-wire with two of the SEC’s worst teams in Mississippi State and Arkansas, with their weaknesses continuing to glare and the strengths starting to look a little questionable.

Both of these teams can score points. Both Bama’s Ty Simpson and Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar have spent much of - but not all of - 2025 looking like absolute studs. Both teams have at least one absolute stud receiver - Chris Brazzell II (576 yards, 7 TD’s) for Tennessee, and Germie Bernard (412 yards, 5 TD’s) for Alabama, who of course also has Ryan Williams. Nobody is going to pitch a shutout here by any means, but the game will come down to which defense can put enough stops together to take, and keep, a late lead. We’ve got our money on Bama being that team, but we wouldn’t be at all shocked if Josh Heupel and Aguilar were able to keep Bama’s defense on their toes enough to steal one in Tuscaloosa. This game has serious SEC and playoff implications on the line, so whoever wins this game will be tasting cigars that taste even sweeter than they normally do.

#20 USC (5-1) @ #13 Notre Dame (4-2): ND -9.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

We’re 20 years from the legendary 2005 Bush Push game, which is reminiscent of the better, older times where Notre Dame could never get over the hump and Jeff Samardzija was not yet throwing fastballs for the Cubs. The Golden Domers started off the year losing to current top 5 teams Miami and Texas A&M by a combined 4 points but have eviscerated every other team since then. They can get back into the playoff if they win out but this is the biggest hurdle that remains. USC is some bad luck and an ill-timed turnover against Illinois away from being undefeated and shouldn’t be underrated here (famous last words; see: OnlyRans). Notre Dame QB CJ Carr won’t blow you away and once again the receivers we were promised would be better this year are yet again underperforming. However, that matters little when the offense continues to execute and has the best RB in the nation in Jeremiyah Love. It ain’t pretty but it’s honest work. Their defense has been a work in progress since their 0-2 start but it’s hard to say if it’s fixed given their level of competition. However, hanging 56 and holding Arkansas to 13 might age well. This might be the last USC-Notre Dame game we get for a long time, as the athletic departments bitch about playoff format which we won’t bore you with or even qualify as an excuse. Grow up, say you're sorry, and continue one of college football's greatest rivalries before we beat the shit out of both of you with The Jeweled Shillelagh.

Holy War: #23 Utah (5-1) @ #15 BYU (6-0): Utah -3.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

As a consumer and connoisseur of an entire season of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, there is no one more qualified to preview the Holy War than yours truly, Rand. #Momtok has not sucked me into the new season of Dancing with the Stars, but I’m not ruling it out. I’ve seen some god awful reality TV, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, given I’ve willingly watched Wake basketball for my entire life. 

Utah is led by QB Devon Dampier who is one of the most dynamic QBs in the sport. Opposing him is Bear Bachmeier (yes, brother of Hank for the Wake fans), who wears #49 and forms a hell of a running duo with RB LJ Martin. Where this game will be won will be on third down and in the redzone which could be said about any game but this has immovable force v unstoppable object vibes. Offensively, the Utes lead the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage at 60% and 8th in the nation with a 97% red zone conversion rate. Conversely, the Cougs defense ranks 12th nationally in 3rd down conversion allowed at a whopping 28% and #10 in redzone at 70%. This is one of the fiercest rivalries in the game, and these two teams are carbon copies of each other yet again. It’s almost as if they have the same familial…eh, never mind.

The Other Week 8 Games to Watch

Friday night kicks off the weekend with two ACC matchups that are enticing for completely different reasons. First, #2 Miami hosts Louisville in what should be an elimination game for the ACC Championship, should the Cards lose. Louisville is spunky, has a trio of offensive playmakers with QB Miller Moss, RB Isaac Brown, and the ACC’s leading receiver WR Chris Bell, and Jeff Brohm will surely have a few trick plays up his sleeve, but Miami DE Reuben Bain Jr is garnering Heisman hype for a reason. On the other side of the country, UNC and Billy B end their four-year-long bye week, which saw every publication short of the North Korean State News (KCNA) spilling ink over how much of a disaster his tenure has been. They get the honors of playing Cal and stud QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. The bad news for Carolina having to face this guy is CB coach Armond Hawkins was suspended for recruiting violations, but maybe that’s a good thing, given they’re 109th in passing defense. Lastly, #25 Nebraska and Penn State coaching candidate Matt Rhule head to Minnesota, which is probably the mid-est team in the nation. 

The noon slate is chock-full of intriguing matchups once you get past Vandy and LSU. Undefeated #12 Georgia Tech heads to Wallace Wade to face Duke and stud QB Darian Mensah. However, this game should be decided in the trenches as Georgia Tech’s 7th-ranked rushing attack goes up against Duke’s 22nd-ranked rushing defense. If Georgia Tech is forced to throw, they’ll have to slice through a secondary that has 8 picks on the year and is forcing 2.4 turnovers/game. Over in Columbia (Satan’s armpit, not Missouri), we get another premier QB matchup between South Carolina’s LaNorris Seller and #14 Oklahoma’s John Mateer. Mateer’s thumb looked decent against Texas last weekend, but he was largely ineffective. Sellers has gone from a potential #1 overall pick to having one of the worst QBRs in the conference. One of these QBs needs to show face this weekend or else we’re in for a rock fight. 

Don’t sleep on the Washington Huskies who are 5-1 and have a favorable schedule until a rivalry week battle with Oregon, assuming they can make it out of the Big House unscathed. Michigan got punked by USC last weekend, and we’re starting to ask real questions about Bryce Underwood’s efficacy. He’s got a 59.7% completion percentage which is good for 100th out of eligible quarterbacks. That’s one spot below Wake’s Robby Ashford and two below TAMU’s Marcel Reed, so it’s not a perfect picture, but I just felt like saying that. But Underwood is a middling P4 QB who has looked great against Wisconsin and Central Michigan but pedestrian against any team with a pulse. The Wolverines and Sherrone Moore need this one. 

Onto the afternoon slate, which has a juicy undercard along with Georgia-Ole Miss. #4 Texas A&M heads to Arkansas to face Bobby Petrino, who continues his season-long audition for the full-time gig, which we’ll warn Hog Nation now, don’t fall into his trap. Plug your ears with beeswax and don’t fall for the allure of the Petrino siren. That’s a good analogy; we should use that more in the coaching carousel. UNC BOT’s John Preyer and Jennifer Lloyd would’ve been wise to listen to us, too. Our advice is free (and unsolicited). Anyway, as good as the Aggies have looked, this may be a trap game as they head to LSU and Missouri in the coming weeks. Elsewhere, get a good look at future playoff participant #7 Texas Tech, who may or may not have starting QB Behren Morton, but that likely won’t matter as Will Hammond is just as good, if not better. Arizona State may or may not have starting QB Sam Leavitt, and that will matter because backup QB Jeff Sims is 90 years old and plays like it. 

Undefeated UNLV and Dan Mullen head to the Smurf Turf against Boise State as double-digit underdogs, which is eyebrow-raising. The law of averages says UNLV will come back down to earth and not have four wins by one possession, but this is a results business, and Mullen is getting them. Another ACC fixture we’ll have our eyes on is SMU heading to Death Valley to face Clemson. We haven’t heard from Dabo in a while, but they’ve enjoyed two scrimmages against Boston College and UNC. A loss here to a decent but not great SMU team will reinvigorate the debate on whether he has lost his edge. 

And finally, for your fourth screen viewing during the packed night slate, we’ve got Kentucky hosting #21 Texas, Auburn hosting #16 Missouri, and whatever shell of a program Penn State is heading to Kinnick to face Iowa. The late-night sicko matchup is Florida State at the hapless Stanford Cardinal, and our not-even-shown-on-death-row matchup of the evening, featuring FCS Lafayette and winless Oregon State, who thought the beatdown to Wake Forest was so obscene they fired their coach. 

OnlyRans

Last Week: 3-7 // Season Record: 29-37 (44%)

A 3-7 record isn’t that bad when you consider I went 2-8 the weekend before. It’s kinda like Trump celebrating his approval rating bump after the ceasefire, which beats his own record of worst of all time. 

So I’m trying something new this week…I’m going to fade myself. If you faded me the past two weekends, you would’ve gone 15-5, so never say OnlyRans isn’t valuable. Like normal, I’ll write a quick blurb on why I think this bet will hit and then take the exact opposite. Let’s get back to our winning ways. 

Rutgers +17.5 v Oregon: Dan Lanning and the Ducks don’t have a large data set of how they perform after losses. That’s because they’ve only lost 5 regular season games in 4 years prior to last weekend. I expect Oregon to be reenergized and smash Rutgers to smithereens. They probably won’t make the Big 10 Championship, so they will need an at-large bid and style points. 

Duke -1.5 v Georgia Tech: Duke has 8 picks on the season, which is good for 12th in the nation, but I don’t see that being a boon for the Devils as they face a Jackets team that wants to run it down your throat. The O/U is 61.5 so they’re expecting points here, but in a matchup of the two best QBs in the ACC, give me the senior Haynes King against the boom or bust Mensah. 

Michigan -6.5 v Washington: Michigan’s rush defense was just exposed by USC to the tune of 224 yards and 6.2 yards/carry. Enter the Washington offense led by QB Demond Williams Jr. and RB Jonah Coleman who racked up 180 rushing yards on Rutgers last weekend. Also, Michigan QB Bryce Underwood has all the talent in the world but the production of a backup on JV. I think Washington is being undervalued here. 

West Virginia +7.5 @ UCF: This UCF team has lost three in a row but have been competitive in every one of them and boasts a strong rushing attack. West Virginia, on the other hand, is one of the worst P4 teams out there. They’ve also lost three in a row, weren’t competitive in any of them, and that’s not accounting for an early-season loss to Ohio, or the fact that they’ve played five different guys at QB this season. 

Wisconsin +25.5 v Ohio State: This is where the fading myself exercise gets ridiculous (in my expert opinion), but I’m a man of principle, so I’m sticking with it. I’m supposed to believe that a team that hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game this year is going to keep it close to the best defense in college football one week after losing 37-0 to Iowa? Puh-lease. 

Arkansas +7.5 v Texas A&M: I keep waiting for that patented Aggie October collapse but it’s yet to come and they seem to get better each week. A long-term injury to RB Le'Veon Moss isn’t the best news, but 5-star Rueben Owens is an apt replacement. In a battle of Mike Elko’s defense v Booby Petrino’s offense, I’m not taking the boob. 

Arizona State +7.5 v Texas Tech: As mentioned, both backup QBs have seen game action and will likely be starting here. Arizona State’s is awful and has been in college since I graduated, while Texas Tech’s offense has looked better with their backup QB in. Even if Sun Devils starting QB Sam Leavitt is playing, he was in a walking boot 4 days ago, which takes away his dynamic ability. That, plus the Sun Devils going against one of the best defenses in college football, means it’ll be all Red Raiders here. 

Utah @ BYU game total Over 49.5: Both teams run the hell out of the ball, pass it less than 40% of the time, and this environment is one of the loudest in the nation. I expect both teams to play conservative (no pun intended) and lead with their defense.

Notre Dame -9.5 v USC: This is way too many points for a USC offense that’s scored 30+ in every game, and that includes the stout Big 10 defenses of Illinois and Michigan. Is Notre Dame’s defense (namely the pass rush) all of a sudden fixed just because they’ve enjoyed beating up on Purdue, Arkansas, Boise State, and NC State? I think not! I like Lincoln Riley to cook up some offense with QB Jayden Maiava and the nation's second-leading receiver, Makai Lemon.

Tate’s Great Picks 

Last Week: 3-6 // Season Record: 21-27 (44%)

Alabama -7.5 vs Tennessee

Cal -10 vs UNC

Houston +1.5 vs Arizona

Ohio State -25.5 @ Wisconsin

Oregon -17.5 vs Rutgers

Texas A&M @ Arkansas U61.5

UNLV +11.5 @ Boise State

Texts of the Week

“These refs are putting up a triple double in the first half.” - Alex S.

“This broadcast team is DOOOOOOGGGGGGSH**********TTTT.” - Jason L.

“That is a touchdown for one team but I don’t know which.” - Sam W (it was neither)

“Holy sh*t we’re rage baiting them and it’s working.” - Alex S. on Auburn’s midgame mental collapse

“What is Auburn’s version of Rocky Top? I want to sing it in this Birmingham hotel lobby.” - Alec N. It’s this one Alec

Where in the World are We?

Tate: I’ll be back where I belong in Sanford Stadium, where yet another top ten team is coming into town. Those who know me know that Ole Miss has always been my second-favorite SEC team due to my dear childhood friend Waide, who I will be attending the game with. But I am seeking revenge for last year’s mess of a performance in rainy Oxford, so I will be sneaking a baseball bat into the stadium to threaten Waide with it should he get too loud in cheering for the Rebs for my liking. Violence is never the answer, unless of course you are against me in any way.

Rand: Wake is off this weekend, basking in the glory of their dominant performance (and my very fun trip) out west to Oregon. You’d think I’d be doing the same, given this awesome slate, and I haven’t had a true couch-rotting day all season. Wrong. It’s called foreshadowing or irony or something, moron. Look it up. I’m off to the great state of Iowa to take in the Penn State-Iowa game from Kinnick Stadium. This game looked pretty good a few weeks ago, but given everything that’s gone on in State College, dare I argue it looks better? Go Hawkeyes, I’ve been practicing my wave all week. 

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.