First Round Playoff Preview

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Good morning and welcome back to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. An impending war with Venezuela? Is the AI bubble about to burst? How does one pick bowl games between teams that don’t have a head coach and half of their roster had opted out? Those questions are rhetorical, unanswerable, the same problem every AD is dealing with in the coaching carousel when hiring the new guy, and that same coach is doing in the transfer portal trying to rebuild his roster. These athletic departments have better odds heading to The Flamingo and playing Rich Little Piggies on the slots. The only differentiator is whether they are armed with six or seven-figure money orders to play with. 

We’ll get to the transfer portal and coaching carousel in due time, but there are far more important things going on right now. The first round of the playoffs kick off this weekend, USF and ODU just played in the Cure Bowl with their third-string QBs and committed a combined six turnovers, and Paddington: The Musical just debuted in London, featuring a very creepy and way too realistic 4-foot bear costume, so forgive us if we’re a little distracted. 

But since you asked nicely, and we can’t help ourselves, here’s a rapid-fire primer of what’s gone on in the past 36 hours. Ohio’s coach (Bobcats, not Buckeyes) was just fired for ‘serious professional misconduct,’ which amounted to allegations that he stored and drank alcohol in his office. I mean, I think “serious professional misconduct” would be more in line with what Sherrone Moore did, but you do you, Ohio. As of writing, we’re at 31 FBS head coaching changes, with Missouri State joining the two aforementioned schools as the lone jobs unfilled. We predicted upwards of 40 changes a few weeks back, and while we’re unlikely to get there, if Bama loses on Saturday and Michigan poaches Kalen DeBoer, then all hell could break loose once again. 

As for the transfer portal, it technically doesn’t even open until January 2nd but that hasn’t stopped roughly everyone and their mother from declaring their intentions to enter on social media. Florida’s DJ Layway, Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola, Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby, North Texas’s Drew Mestamaker, and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt will command a few million each, while intriguing reclamation and G5/FCS transfers will catch the eye of some other high major programs. Remember, seven of the last nine Heisman winners and six of the eight QBs in the playoffs have been transfers. It’s a lottery ticket, but when it hits, it’s a hell of a better outcome than that awful book we all had to read in 9th grade, aptly called The Lottery. We’ll keep you posted on coaching moves and even non-QB transfers to keep your eye on, but let’s get to the games this weekend. 

Quick note on the trivia answers to the non-transfer Heisman and transfer QBs playing this weekend: DeVonta Smith & Bryce Young for Heisman and Marcel Reed & Ty Simpson for non-transfers.

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First Round Playoff Preview

#9 Alabama (10-3) @ #8 Oklahoma (10-2): OKLA -1.5, O/U 39.5 - Fri. 12/19, 8pm ET ABC

Do you like offensive football? Yes? Well, that absolutely sucks for you because we are likely in for the sluggfestiest slugfest that has ever slugfested tomorrow night in Norman. Both of these offenses have been reeling for at least a month - Bama’s most recent performance was their absolute shellacking against Georgia in the SEC Championship game, where the Tide put up their first points and only points in the 4th quarter on a drive where the Dawgs gifted them two 15-yard penalties. QB John Mateer and the Sooners’ last outing came at home, in a game where OU had 3 points at halftime, Mateer threw three picks, but escaped with a victory against 7-5 LSU on a brutal coverage bust by the Tigers. The Sooners, despite being ranked #8 in the country, have not scored more than three touchdowns in a game against a Power 4 opponent this season. On top of all of this terrible offensive play on both sides, each squad’s defense is also littered with NFL talent all over it. We hope you don’t like offensive football that much.

Still, this will likely be an entertaining, down to the wire matchup against two powerhouse programs fighting to keep their seasons alive. At first glance, it seems Oklahoma would have the advantage here - they already beat Alabama just a month ago, and did so in Tuscaloosa. But that game was one of those bizarro outcomes when you dig deeper into the box score, where Alabama essentially dominated in all but one category. Alabama outgained the Sooners 406-212, had nine more first downs, easily won the time of possession battle, and had four more 3rd or 4th down conversions. But Ty Simpson threw three picks - one that was returned 87 yards for an OU TD, and another that led to Oklahoma’s only offensive touchdown drive of the day that went for a total of 31 yards. With three field goals by Groza Award winner Tate Sandell, Oklahoma somehow left T-Town with an entirely improbable win. While that sort of box score is highly unlikely to result in an OU victory for a second time, this time Ty Simpson will have to deal with the Sooner faithful absolutely rattling his eardrums for 60 minutes, and Simpson has been playing timidly for over a month. We highly doubt he has a lot of fun tomorrow night playing Oklahoma’s nasty front seven, but simply protecting the ball a little better might be all the Tide needs to return the favor and get out of Norman with a W. We really, really hope you like defensive football.

#10 Miami (FL) (10-2) @ #7 Texas A&M (11-1): TAMU -3.5, O/U 48.5 - Sat. 12/20, 12pm ET ABC

That’s right baby, the best game of the day at one of the loudest venues in college football is taking place at 11:00am local time so that it doesn’t compete with the NFL regular season. The college football playoff and calendar are absolutely perfect and need zero reconsideration whatsoever! In all seriousness, we are pumped to have this game to wake up to on Saturday, not only because it is easily the best matchup of the day, but because we have zero idea what is going to happen.

For different yet somewhat similar reasons, these teams almost feel like they’re the same thing. Both programs have appeared to be on the cusp of finally breaking through to the top after decades of severe and at times devastating underperformance. Both programs decided to ditch the idea of chasing flash and glamour as their selling point and made hires of true football maniacs who want to build their teams from the line of scrimmage first and foremost. Both teams played relatively soft schedules this season, and both played two absolute clunkers of games - though A&M was actually able to win one of their two, in one of the greatest comebacks in SEC history. 

Both teams have tremendously talented rosters and have accomplished, but wildly volatile quarterbacks. This game will be a back-and-forth war up front no doubt, but who moves on to get the honor of playing Ohio State will very likely come down to who wins - or perhaps loses - this game between A&M’s Marcel Reed and Miami’s Carson Beck. Both spent the first half of this season as frontrunners in the Heisman race, but both struggle with one key part of playing the quarterback position: not throwing the football to the other team. Many of our readers are Georgia fans and don’t need a description of what Carson Beck can look like when the going gets tough for his offense. He gets rattled and frustrated at times, and his decision-making often takes a nosedive when he gets like that. He is a fantastic talent when he is on, but he can give you a three-picker anywhere at any time. Reed, similarly, can make plays that make you turn to the person next to you and say “how is that dude not a projected first-rounder?”, two throws before he accidentally fires the ball into the 11th row, 7 yards left of his intended receiver. Whichever one of these quarterbacks can reel it in a bit and play a full, smart, 60-minute game is likely the one that’ll get to face off against Ohio State’s vaunted defense in two weeks. We just have no idea which one it will be.

#11 Tulane (11-2) @ #6 Ole Miss (11-1): MISS -17.5, O/U 56.5 - Sat. 12/20, 3:30pm ET TNT

The advent of the 12-team College Football Playoff immediately created a lot of new opportunities for a lot more programs. If you’re a G5 school, it provides you with a real, clear path to a national championship. If you’re a major conference program that’s been outside of the top tier in your league, it gives you the opportunity to get in the dance without having to beat the behemoths of your league in the conference championship. Hell, it even gives fans of national title contenders the chance to see your team play programs from other conferences and regions that you’d otherwise never get to see, save for some bowl game in Tampa in late December. So how was Ole Miss’s first post-regular season life at a shot at a national title rewarded? With their head coach bolting for the same job at a hated conference rival, while the fans and team got matched up with a team from a bordering state that it already beat earlier this year. Should the Rebels advance, fans will get the opportunity to see their Rebs play checks notes Georgia, who they also played earlier this season, last season, and is scheduled to play again next season. Super exciting!

We’re all exhausted from the Lane drama, and we’ll rehash it all later after the season comes to a conclusion. But it’s certainly a noteworthy aspect of this game - new head coach Pete Golding will be making not just his debut as the coach of the Rebels, but his overall head coaching debut. Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is also headed to become Florida’s new head coach, but will be coaching in this game because his parting of ways with Tulane was, to put it mildly, a little less hostile than Lane’s departure from Oxford. This is, without a doubt, the weirdest head coaching situation, considering the stakes, in modern college football history, and these sorts of distractions often have major effects on the performances of 18 to 20-year-old players. How it’ll impact this matchup is impossible to predict, but…

…we won’t lie to our readers and say that we’re expecting anything other than Ole Miss cruising to a comfortable win. We’ll leave some room for the fact that the Green Wave, and especially QB Jake Retzlaff, have certainly improved from what they were when Ole Miss beat them 45-10 just a few months ago. But there is a reason that the betting line is what it is, even with Ole Miss’ wild month of staff shakeups and pure, raw anger - Ole Miss simply has a way bigger, more athletic, and faster roster than Tulane, and guys like Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy didn’t forget how to play football when Lane left for Baton Rouge. It’d take something truly remarkable to happen for us not see these Rebs get yet another rematch with Georgia in two weeks at the Sugar Bowl.

#12 James Madison (12-1) @ #5 Oregon (11-1): ORE -21, O/U 47.5 - Sat. 12/20, 7:30pm ET TNT

Can you do a prop bet or something for which game will be a bigger blowout? This one or Ole Miss-Tulane? If so, we’d recommend hammering this game. JMU is a great story, and we’ll never blame them for being here - that’s the ACC’s fault - but this is a simple equation of Oregon’s endless troves of NFL talent and physicality outnumbers JMU’s at least 15 to 1. Could you say the same about other improbable upsets like App State - Michigan or uhhhhh Stanford-USC circa 2007? Sure, but those are once-in-a-generation upsets, even though those two happened one year apart. Alright, I picked bad examples but the point remains. If JMU pulls the upset here, it’ll automatically enter the App State-Michigan stratosphere. We don’t see it and neither does Vegas. JMU’s coach, Bob Chesney, has one foot out the door to UCLA and in the three weeks since their last game, they’ve been able to get healthier at skill positions which will be a major factor in this game and their playoff run.

Oregon’s freshman phenom WR Dakorien Moore missed all of November with a leg injury but he’s listed as questionable for a return in this game. The same goes for starting slot receiver Gary Bryant Jr was injured back in October but practiced this week. In a Kyle Schwarber 2016 Cubs World Series return level bombshell, WR Evan Stewart practiced after missing the entire year to an ACL injury over the summer. If you remember, Stewart is a WR transfer for Texas A&M, and in Jimbo’s final year, he almost single-handedly beat #1 Alabama when TAMU’s entire gameplan was throw it to that guy. These three will likely be limited if they even play, while Oregon is going to run it down JMU’s throat here, but they are key pieces to the Ducks should they advance to the next round against Texas Tech.

What does an upset look like for the Dukes here? As monumental upsets go, it’ll come down to turnovers, penalties, and special teams. JMU is talented and boasts a good defense, but they don’t have the offensive firepower - especially through the air - to go blow for blow with Oregon here. Eugene will be a scene and props to the Dukes for their seemingly 500th moment in the sun the past few years, but we expect a blood bath. 

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.