State of the Union: Week 10 Preview

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Good morning and welcome back to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We interrupt this college football season to bring you off-the-field news, which we wouldn’t normally do, but given how batshit it’s been off the field and the dearth of high-profile matchups this weekend, we felt like this was a good time. You can thank former Penn State coach James Franklin for his mismanagement of one of the best rosters in the sport and midseason collapse as a reason for this. #1 Ohio State hosts Penn State in what was presumed to be one of the biggest games of the season, is now one that we probably won’t get our eyes on as Ohio State is a three-touchdown favorite. College GameDay is in Salt Lake City for 6-2 Utah hosting 7-1 Cincinnati, and there are only two other ranked v ranked matchups on the slate. So let’s talk about the hundreds of millions of dollars that might as well be shot out of a potato gun at these coaches who are getting canned left and right.

State of the Union

We’ll start in the Bayou with LSU who just canned certified asshole, Brian Kelly. Due to some really boring state constitution bylaws, the Governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry, has and will have significant influence over this hiring process. So let’s meet this ‘look at me I’m important’ politician, which is a redundant statement to make. Landry first made waves on the CFB scene when he publicly advocated for bringing Mike the Tiger back to the sidelines of LSU games, which was not kosher with animal rights activists. Nevertheless, a tiger named Omar, donated by a guy in Florida who’d been cited for animal abuse, was brought into the stadium last year against Bama. LSU lost 42-13, and Omar has not been seen since. 

Landry is seemingly at odds with AD Scott Woodward, who is the infamous AD who hired and fired Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M and his $77 million buyout, and now is responsible for the same with Kelly and his $53 million buyout. At a press conference yesterday, Landry said he’d let Trump name the new head coach at LSU before Woodward. Landry also tweeted just this week, advocating for a Charlie Kirk statue on campus, and we’ll stop there with the political portion of this program. Instead, LSU’s Board of Supervisors will be leading this search per Landry. In response to this statement, the Board’s chair, Scott Ballard, said, “I didn’t know that.” All is well in the Bayou!

LSU instantly became the best job on the market, and unless Kirby Smart, Kalen DeBoer, Ryan Day, or Steve Sarkisian puts in their resignation in the next three months, they’ll remain the belle of the ball. The problem is, well, Landry, and this buzzword you’ll hear for the next 3 months: alignment. Alignment in a CFB coaching search context means the athletic department, university leadership, and boosters are in lockstep and agreement with the direction and goals of the football program. Nick Saban is an outlier for a million reasons, but it’s a key reason he was so successful at Alabama, and also why he retired. Winning cures all, but even before Bama got rolling, the AD, president, and boosters knew to get in line and stay out of the way. 

College football history is littered with examples of what can happen when you don’t have alignment amongst key stakeholders. You can end up like Auburn, which has been a dumpster fire for the last decade. They hired a political consultant named “Sloppy Joe” Perkins to enact a smear campaign against former head coach Bryan Harsin. His eventual firing enabled Auburn boosters to get ‘their guy’, Hugh Freeze, whose history of calling escorts on a school-issued phone was brushed aside because he beat Bama a few times. Now he’s on the hot seat with a 1-11 record against top 25 teams and 0 wins against Bama. If Auburn is boosters gone rogue, then UNC is a pertinent example of Boards gone rogue. Last year, the Chancellor and two key Board of Trustees members pushed aside AD Bubba Cunningham to hire Bill Belichick. We’re all familiar with how that’s going to date. 

And that brings us back to the present with LSU, which currently doesn’t have a school president, a Governor in Landry who is looking to score political points, and pissed off boosters at the fact they just wasted $18 million on a roster that’s currently 2-3 in conference with no hope for the playoff and a QB that’ll be a top draft pick. And even with all of that, they’re still going to get a name-brand coach because they’re going to pay him north of $13 million a year and probably fire him by the end of the decade for even more. 

LSU is a microcosm of what this coaching carousel is going to look like for the next three months. You’ll hear ‘craziest ever’ on broadcasts and in articles over and over, and we don’t think it’s hyperbole. It’s not irrational to assume that 40+ head coaching jobs could turn over, which would be roughly one-third of the entire FBS. The reason this is the year for the craziest coaching cycle in history for a few reasons. First, last year was eerily quiet because everyone was waiting to see if the House settlement ($20.5 million revenue share) would be ratified, so athletic departments were pinching pennies. The other concurrent factor is Curt Cignetti. If this random dude from James Madison can show up to Indiana and turn them into a legitimate national championship contender overnight, why can’t everyone? Brian Kelly couldn’t even make the playoffs at LSU, same with Billy Napier at Florida. 

So let’s play this out. We’re not even in November, and we have 11 FBS openings: Florida, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, UAB, Kent State, Colorado State, Arkansas, UCLA, and LSU. Some schools that could join them by season’s end are Wisconsin, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida State, NC State, Boston College, Baylor, Cal, Maryland, Michigan State, Akron, and Mississippi State. Not all of those will open, but replace that list with some retirements (hello, Utah, Iowa, and Deion at Colorado) and surprise departures (Sark at Texas to the NFL? Oklahoma collapses and fires Venables?), and we’ll add 12 more schools to our list to reach 23.

The big boys in that list are going to prioritize head coaching experience because of the stresses of the transfer portal and the desire for an immediate turnaround. We’d argue a lot of schools should take risks on coordinators like Oregon’s OC Will Stein or Georgia’s DC Glenn Schumann, but that’s a different rabbit hole, and we’ve already talked about a tiger named Omar from Florida.

Let’s list out some sitting head coaches who are most likely to get called upon. Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss, Eli Drinkwitz at Mizzou, Shane Beamer at South Carolina only for Virginia Tech, Bob Chesney at James Madison, Alex Golesh at South Florida, Jon Sumrall at Tulane, Ryan Silverfield at Memphis, Fran Brown at Syracuse, Rhett Lashlee at SMU, Jedd Fisch at Washington, Willie Fritz at Houston, Sean Lewis at San Diego State, Dan Mullen at UNLV, just to name a few.

That list intentionally doesn’t include Brent Key at Georgia Tech, Kenny Dillingham at Arizona State, Clark Lea at Vanderbilt, and Jeff Brohm at Louisville. Those four are all at their alma mater, and it’ll be fascinating to see if anyone can pull them out of their very cozy situations. So now our count is 11 confirmed firings plus 12 more potential firings plus 17 sitting head coaches who could be hired away to make a grand total of 40, and I promise that perfect math wasn’t calculated before I wrote this. 

From there, there’s the Cold War domino theory that will make this even crazier than a recoupling on Love Island. For the uninitiated and uncultured, Love Island recouplings are the greatest invention by TV producers in the history of television, and don’t even get me started on the concept of Casa Amor. If Oklahoma opens, then they’ll surely go after native son and current Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel. Ditto for Penn State (already open) and Nebraska’s Matt Rhule. We could go on and on like we already have, so we’ll just say: Buckle up, it’s going to be bonkers. You know what’s also crazy? How shitty we are at making picks. 

OnlyRans

Last Week: 3-7 // Season Record: 36-49 (42%)

Wow, my first awful week of the entire year. I had been nails up to this point, so I’ll learn from that fiasco, readjust my strategy, and provide some locks of the century below. You have no reason to doubt me. 

#20 Texas -2.5 v #9 Vanderbilt: I reserve the right to not count this pick if Arch doesn’t play, as he’s 50/50 and currently in concussion protocol. Vandy has struggled to score in conference play and this is the best defense they’ll face all season. I like Texas at home and the Vandy cinderella story comes to an end…assuming Arch plays. 

North Texas v Navy game total under 65.5: What happens when the nation’s #1 scoring offense meets the 16th-ranked one? A surprising defensive slugfest buoyed by a hilariously large Vegas O/U mark. Trust me here, I’m a lock machine. 

Indiana -21.5 @ Maryland: I don’t care how big the spread is, the Hoosiers are a machine. 

Washington State -3.5 @ Oregon State: A few weeks ago I watched this Beavs team in person go through the motions against Wake en route to a 39-14 loss. They fired their coach after the game, their QB said the team had already quit, and now they face a Wazzu team that lost to Ole Miss and Virginia by a combined 5 points since then? Hammer the Cougs.

Nebraska +6.5 v #23 USC: Gah, this is a sick, demented game to bet on. Is this Nebraska team closer to the one that beat Cincinnati and took Michigan to the wire, or are they the one that scored 6 points on Minnesota? And what about USC? Are they the beatdown of Michigan or the throw reverse passes with their WR in the rain on 4th down against Notre Dame? I’ll take the home team and the points in this game from the depths of hell.

The Home Dawg Special: Cal +4.5 v #15 Virginia, NC State +5.5 v #8 Georgia Tech, Colorado +4.5 v Arizona: parlay this if you want, but I’m betting on the ACC to throw up on itself this weekend, given the CFB slate is devoid of high-profile matchups. Beating a dead horse here but every time we look at slate and say, ‘boring’, this sport turns itself on its head. Georgia Tech and Virginia have been playing with fire for roughly the entire season. Carter-Finley is one of the toughest places to play in the conference and it’d be classic State to win this game when they’re on the verge of throwing in the towel on the season and firing their coach for the 15th or so year in a row. 

Virginia has to fly all the way across the country and hope to keep up with Cal’s offense while their own has fallen off a cliff the past few weeks. There are rumors of College GameDay heading to Charlottesville next weekend for the first time ever, if they can win which never bodes well. And finally, I subscribe to the thinking that teams are never as good or bad as they looked the previous week and Colorado looked horrific against Utah last weekend. They were down 41-0 at halftime against the Utes and its backup QB. Deion and the boys right the ship and keep it close against an Arizona team that doesn’t have a quality win all season. 

Tate’s Great Picks

Last Week: 2-4 // Season Record: 27-34 (44%)

#1 Ohio State -20.5 vs Penn State: You’ve gotta love that this is at that 20.5 mark, and while I still think it’s reasonable to question what exactly Ohio State is, I just do not see the Buckeyes giving up more than a handful of points here at home. Penn State has quit, and the Buckeye defense may be one of the best defenses of the decade when all is said and done.

UNT -6.5 vs Navy: Like the Buckeyes, the Mean Green are at home and get a nice little hook here. But more than that, I’m taking UNT because of their quarterback, Drew Mestemaker. If you don’t care about G5 football, even though these teams are a combined 14-1, then fine. But I’m telling you that you need to get your eyes on this kid because there is a decent chance he is playing on a really good P4 team next year. He’s savvy in the pocket and consistently makes absurd throws despite being a 0-star recruit that never started a varsity football game in high school (!!!!). This offense is nasty and unlike anything this Navy team has seen so far - Middies take their first L of 2025.

Mississippi State +4.5 @ Arkansas: MSU’s offense has been absolutely rolling of late, and Arkansas’ defense is an affront to God. The same could be said about Arkansas’ offense and MSU’s defense, sure, but that’s what the 4.5 points are for. MSU is due for another big win after falling up short against Tennessee and Texas over the last few weeks - they get it here.

#14 Tennessee -3 vs #18 Oklahoma: After freestyle-QBing his way through the first few weeks as a “Heisman contender”, OU QB John Mateer has come back down to earth and the 3-5 mind-boggling decisions he makes in the pocket every week. This Sooner offensive line is dreadful, in my opinion, and the offense as a whole just looks like a shell of what we once thought it might be. The Vols are still in the playoff race, so Neyland will be rocking. Give me the Vols.

Wake Forest +10 vs FSU: 10 points? Florida State University’s football program is favored by ten points? C’mon Deacs, don’t let me down. Purdie for Heisman.

#17 Cincinnati +10 @ #24 Utah: After weeks of me touting #24 Utah as one of the nation’s potential dark horses, I’m now taking #17 Cincinnati to take them to the wire in Salt Lake. The Utes have looked lackluster on both sides of the ball at certain points throughout the year, while Cincy just keeps on rolling behind QB Brendan Sorsby, and while I think Utah probably still gets this done at home, ten points is a lot - especially against this Bearcat team right now. The Big 12 race is in full swing and we’ll have a much clearer picture on it - and therefore the playoff race - after this game concludes. This is one of the few ranked vs ranked matchups this week, so naturally it’ll kickoff at 10:15pm ET, because this is college football baby. 

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Wake Forest & Georgia

World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party: Florida (3-4) v #5 Georgia (6-1): UGA -7.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

The Dawgs head down for their annual trip to Jacksonville to take on their sons, the Florida Gators, who will be playing their first game without Billy Napier at the helm. We see it all the time in this sport, and we therefore talk about it consistently in this newsletter, but these are the situations where you often see a seemingly “bad” team jump up out of nowhere and surprise their next opponent. The entirety of the national college football media seems to think the same thing this week, that Florida may shock the world on Saturday. But the Gators have only beaten us once in the past eight years, and I think it’s time for the Dawgs to make their true, solid statement about who they really are.

The CFB world is still not Gunner Stockton believers in a way that seems incredibly similar to how Stetson Bennett was viewed throughout his entire career, despite being the best quarterback in the country in 2022. I’ve heard comments this week about how he “doesn’t throw the ball down the field” (certifiably false), about how he’s “good, but not great” and a “game manager”. All of this despite what he did up in Knoxville to win the game, and despite how he went 12/12 in the second half against Ole Miss in a game where his offense didn’t have a possession that didn’t end in points for the entire game. 

The main reason people seem to believe we should be on upset alert is our defense and in particular, defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann. He received heaps of criticism over the past two weeks after the performance against Ole Miss. Admittedly, we were all out of sorts schematically and gave up a ton of points before tightening up and forcing stops when we needed them late, just like we did against Tennessee. But I’d just like to take a moment to call out how ridiculous it is for Georgia fans to be calling for Schumann’s head and/or rooting for him to get one of the head coaching jobs his name is being floated for. Schumann has been Kirby’s right-hand man since their days at Alabama, has been our most important and effective recruiter outside of Kirby Smart himself for a decade. Before Dan Lanning left and Schumann took over as DC a few years ago, he was the best inside linebacker coach in the country. Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Channing Tindall, Smael Mondon, and now CJ Allen, Raylen Wilson, Justin Williams, and Chris Cole, among others, have all come to Georgia to be under Schumann’s tutelage. Kirby and Glenn are two peas in a pod when it comes to defensive gameplanning, so while the defense has been incredibly disappointing at times this year, this is just as much Kirby’s defense as it is Schumann’s. It’s not Glenn’s fault, from a recruiting or developing standpoint, that our defensive line talent is nowhere near what it was a few years ago, or that we don’t have a pass rusher worth a damn at the moment. If some of the fault is his, then it’s doubly Kirby’s and the DL/OLB coaches’ as well. Hoping for one of the most important pieces of the Kirby Smart era to be fired or willingly leave because his young defense gave up a bunch of first-half points to Tennessee’s weirdo offense, and Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss is incredibly shortsighted. 

With all of that said, this defense does need to come out with a fire and energy that we just have not seen them start games with this season. Frankly, I think they’re going to. DJ Lagway and the Gator offense may be playing with less pressure now that their season is cooked and their coach is fired, but the one time Billy did let Lagway loose this year, he threw five picks to an LSU team that just fired their coach themselves. On the other side, while Florida’s defense is solid, I still think people are heavily underestimating what our offense is capable of. Once again, if we are able to establish ourselves on the ground early, we are a threat to score 40 against almost anybody. 

I am feeling as good as I have about a Cocktail Party as I have in a few years for a couple of reasons. For one, we are coming off a bye. That’s always the case for both teams in this game, but I think it’s uniquely important for the Dawgs this year. Our first bye came in Week 4, when we’d only played Marshall, Austin Peay, and a bizarro shootout game in Knoxville. I don’t think this coaching staff knew exactly who we were back then, and therefore didn’t have a great idea of what we were truly good at and what we were truly not-so-good at. That is clearly not the case now. The best coach in college football knows exactly what this team needs to get better at, along with how it can best attack teams, and has spent the past two weeks getting these players ready for the home stretch while they all spent time getting healthier.

And on that note, the main reason I feel confident has to do with what two players told me during the Florida bye week in 2018. I asked these two players (who were NOT smoking weed while we drank beer and played Fortnite, so QUIT ASKING) if it was nice finally having a bye week, and they said no, that Kirby had them out there murdering each other on the practice field all week anyway. “Kirby hates Florida.” That he does. Dawgs by seven quintillion.

Wake Forest (5-2) @ Florida State (3-4): FSU -9.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ESPN

The Deacs head to Tallahassee to play a Florida State team that may or may not already have their bags packed for Daytona Beach. The Noles were on a bye last weekend, but come in riding a four-game losing streak. Their most recent loss was a horrendous one to Stanford, who played their backup QB and are on an interim coach. Mike Norvell’s seat is on fire; their AD had to release a statement saying they’ll evaluate his job at the end of the season, which is another way of saying ‘start looking under your couch cushions, boosters.’ His buyout is north of 50 million, and they haven’t won an ACC game in over a year. Things are going great in Tallanasty…per usual.

Let’s say the Noles turn around their season and win out. That’d mean wins over Florida and Virginia Tech, who are on interim coaches, Clemson, who is just as decrepit, sad, and crestfallen as they are, Wake, who they believe they should beat with their backups no matter the year, and NC State, who may be on an interim coach of their own by then. I guess the standard at FSU is 8-4 with a Duke’s Mayo Bowl appearance now. 

As for the game at hand, the Noles run a similar offense to Georgia Tech, where they’re going to try to kill you on the ground. OC Gus Malzahn’s offense is predicated on it, and he has a dynamic QB in Tommy Castellanos to run it. Castellanos wouldn’t have been able to play last weekend if they had a game due to injury, so watch for that in the injury report and leading up to the game. When Castellanos does pass it, he exclusively targets 6-6 WR Duce Robinson and the 6-1 speedster Micahi Danzy. If the run game gets rolling, they’ll try to take the top off through them. This game is setting up a lot like the last time the Deacs rolled into Tallahassee back in 2022. FSU QB Jordan Travis had Johnny Wilson and Mycah Pittman to throw to, but they couldn’t stop Hartman, AT Perry, and the run game as Wake rushed out to a big lead and held on for dear life to win 31-21. 

Last week’s win over SMU was cathartic, euphoric. It’s hard to rationally adjust my expectations for this team given how horrible the offense has looked at times. But, if you told me at the beginning of the season we’d be sitting on wins over Virginia Tech & SMU, I’d happily take it. I’m getting greedy and would love to beat Florida State today, tomorrow, and always. They’ve acted like victims since the 2023 playoff snub, sued the ACC, and have done nothing on the field to back it up. A win over Alabama? Sure, but since said playoff snub, you’ve won 5 games against Charleston Southern, East Texas A&M, Kent State, and Cal. Here’s a sticker. Go run to the Saudi’s to save you from the pain and misery of being a broke ass, mismanaged athletic department. They enjoy lighting money on fire just as much as you do. Deacs by a billion. 

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.