Eye of the Tiger: Week 12 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Did you miss us? We hope so and apologize but we wish we could say the same about Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry who will surely be voted out of office after this fiasco he’s caused with LSU football in the past week. LSU used to have a live tiger, Mike, on the field in a cage stationed right next to the visitor locker room. For valid animal welfare reasons, LSU no longer shoves a tiger in a cage on a field with 110,000 people screaming for 4 hours. Mike lives in an enclosure right outside the stadium and since the end of this tradition, there has not been a substantive vocal push to bring him back. There are detractors, of course, but it’s a general consensus that it was a cool tradition back in the day but society has evolved.

Well…last Saturday, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry decided to bring back the tradition of LSU having a live tiger on the field and we’re not making up anything you’re about to read. After being denied the opportunity to bring in Mike the Tiger (the one in the enclosure outside the stadium) Landry decided to ship in a tiger named Omar Bradley from Florida. The feds had investigated and cited this tiger’s owner for improper treatment and abuse of tigers and other animals. Nonetheless, Omar Bradley was on the sidelines in a cage next to the Alabama locker room. LSU lost 42-13 and after the game, Landry - who we should note is from Louisiana and did not attend LSU - said, “Our tiger, our live tiger, unfortunately, disappointingly, was the only tiger who showed up Saturday. I’m sorry.” Never change college football, never change.

Quick Week 11 Recap

As you may have noticed, your favorite college football writers took a few days off and didn’t send a Week 11 recap on Monday due to some travel and prior commitments we both had, so we figured we’d take a moment to talk about what turned out to be an interesting day of college football. The day started with #4 Miami and their hall of fame dumbass coach Mario Cristobal losing to freaking Georgia Tech, as once again the Hurricanes’ defense could not get timely stops nor could QB Cam Ward come up with enough magic to pull it out in the end the way he’s done several times this season. It was a huge blow to Ward’s Heisman campaign and it’s the type of loss that makes you wonder if Miami will even make the playoff. We’ve seen this team play with its food for weeks now - what if it also loses to SMU in the ACC Championship game? It would have two losses (one of which was very bad), zero good wins, and wouldn’t be a conference champion. Great job, Mario, you have to win out now.

#8 Indiana played in its biggest game of the season so far, taking down Michigan 20-15. Is Michigan good? No, but they have multiple Sunday players on their team - especially along the defensive line - so it was good to see the Hoosiers be able to get physical and pull out a tough, close victory for the first time all season. We still question whether Indiana has the dudes to do the same sort of thing to Ohio State in two weeks, but we’ve seen crazier things happen. They’re very deserving of their #5 ranking in the updated playoff rankings.

Miami wasn’t the only top five team to go down on Saturday, as - sigh - the #3 Georgia Bulldogs lost to #16 Ole Miss in a rainy Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. It’s as simple as this for the Dawgs at this point: something’s gotta give for the offense. We’ve talked for weeks about Carson Beck’s struggles and while those struggles remain true, we’ve probably overlooked that the receiver and tight end rooms do not have anybody that’s truly dynamic, the offensive line sucks in pass protection, and that the complete and utter lack of an explosive and/or consistent run game means we have literally nothing to turn to when we need it. We’re just bad on offense, and we’re playing enough really good offenses that the defense can’t make up for it entirely themselves. This isn’t a championship caliber team right now, but we’re still in the hunt. For Ole Miss, it can’t be understated how big of a win this was for Lane Kiffin and his program. Kiffin did not yet have a signature win as a Rebel, and a loss to Georgia would’ve knocked them out of the first ever 12-team playoff in a year that the Rebels clearly went all-in for. Just massive in every way imaginable, and along the way the Rebels looked like the type of team that has the offense and defense to make real noise in the playoff. Great stuff Rebs.

Saturday’s slate concluded with a couple of interesting blowouts and a couple of insane endings. #10 Notre Dame beat Florida State 52-3 (!!!) in what has to be the most embarrassing thing that’s happened to FSU so far this season - and that’s saying a lot. The Seminoles fired a bunch of assistants after the game and appear to be losing more recruiting commitments as time goes on. Yeesh. All eyes were on #11 Alabama and #15 LSU in Baton Rouge and well, it sucked. The Tide absolutely rolled the Tigers in a way that seemed almost devastating to the Brian Kelly era at LSU. Bama looked significantly more talented at almost every spot, and LSU once again had absolutely zero answer for a running quarterback after getting sliced and diced several times already this year in the same way. Milroe had 185 yards and 4 TD’s on the ground and didn’t even look like he had to try that hard. Back to the drawing board in the offseason for LSU who is now clearly out of the playoff picture.

#9 BYU escaped a chaotic game against rival Utah after trailing 21-10 at halftime. There was a controversial defensive holding call late in the 4th quarter that helped BYU escape, which absolutely set off Utah Athletic Director Mark Harlan who took the mic at the postgame press conference to absolutely lambast the officiating crew. The Big 12 immediately fined him $40K, and the funny part is about 50% of people think it was actually the right call anyway. Good stuff. But it was #24 Missouri’s win over Oklahoma that really stole the show after the craziest final ten minutes of any game in the country this season. Oklahoma returned a fumble for a touchdown with two minutes left to take a 7-point lead, Mizzou responded with a touchdown with one minute left, and then returned a fumble for a touchdown of their own to win the game with 30 seconds left. It was a masterpiece.

The One Week 12 Game You Need To Watch

#7 Tennessee (8-1) @ #12 Georgia (7-2): UGA -10, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET SECN

Another week, another top ten SEC team the Dawgs have to play. But this time we’re at home! The story of the week so far has been the availability of Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava. Nico sat out the second half of the Vols’ game against Mississippi State for “precautionary reasons” according to head coach Josh Huepel, but rumors began swirling on Monday that there was something going on with Nico and he may not play against Georgia. Those rumors narrowed down to Nico being in concussion protocol and that Tennessee actually has no clue if he’ll clear that in time for the game, and last night, Tennessee listed him as questionable on their weekly injury report. Even as a Dawgs fan, I hope he plays because I want to beat this team at full strength. 

I’m expecting a low scoring affair here, as neither offense has looked overly powerful, to say the least, all season long. Tennessee went through a stretch where they were literally just not scoring points, including a three game stretch where they had zero points in the first half. And the Dawgs’ offense.. well, I’ll just refer you back to what I wrote above in the review of the Ole Miss game. Tennessee hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game all season, and edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is one of the nation’s best which is highly concerning considering we kinda suck in pass protection. Their DL as a whole is deep, so we may not be able to wear them out the way we have over the past few years.

But at the same time, Kirby has tied Huepel’s offense in a knot every single time he’s played him so far. It’s a known thing that if you are able to slow/stop Tennessee’s run game without having to commit extra guys in the box, you’re probably going to have a very good day. We’ve done that every year since Huepel got there, and I don’t really expect Saturday to be any different. It’s our first huge home game of the season after two months of playing top ten teams away from home seemingly every week, the fans are calling for a blackout which some of the players are now joining in on, and it’s going to be an absolutely electric atmosphere at Sanford. Am I guaranteeing that we roll here? No. But I certainly think it’s within the realm of possibility. Show up, wear black, and be loud. Let’s make it seven in a row against these idiots.

Bar Beatdowns

Every weekend in college football is meaningful, especially at this point in the year where no team is separating themselves from the pack. For the average fan, we genuinely hope it’s exciting. It’s supposed to be, so embrace it.  There have been some Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and Clemson teams in the past decade where we’d have to convince you for an entire season that various teams might have a chance to put up a fight against them for at least a half. But we’d be lying to you. Just for entertainment purposes, the entire country would convince themselves of ridiculous scenarios that just maybe Notre Dame, Cincinnati, or Oklahoma could knock them off. Reread that sentence. It was never going to happen. This year we don’t have a world beater and if someone runs the table like a UConn in the basketball tourney, then pull the wool from over our eyes because we can’t see it, and you should find a casino.

This weekend, there is only one other top 25 matchup outside of the Tennessee-Georgia game and that’s South Carolina-Mizzou who aren’t technically eliminated from playoff contention but devoting time and attention to that would be like writing a preview of the NBA In-Season Tournament. Point is, there are 19 games involving top 25 teams and only four of them have single point spreads. Does that mean you shouldn’t watch? Uh if you’re reading a newsletter devoted to college football, I don’t think we need to convince you of not doing that. You know better, we know better, so enjoy the shocking upsets this weekend. 

Tate’s Great Picks (42-49)

Utah (4-5) @ Colorado (7-2): COLO -11.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX

Pick Colorado -11.5: This Utah team has been dead in the water for weeks, and while they made sure to get up for their massive rivalry game against BYU last weekend, they’re now coming off of their most devastating loss of the year and have to take on a Buffs team that is rolling. Sko.

#7 Tennessee (8-1) @ #12 Georgia (7-2): UGA -10, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET SECN

Pick Game Total Under 48.5: As discussed above, I think both defenses hold clear advantages over the opposing offenses and while I think the Dawgs put this one away comfortably late, I think we’re looking at much more of a 23-10 outcome than a 30-24 final. Take the under.

#20 Clemson (7-2) @ Pittsburgh (7-2): CLEM -10, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Clemson -10: Clemson reaaaaally needs this one and I’m pretty sure Pitt absolutely sucks. Give me the Tigers.

Due to the aforementioned time constraints of our weeks this week, I’ll take a page out of Rand’s book and go rapid-fire for a few more. Give me Arkansas +13.5 at home against Texas. I’m not expecting the upset to be clear, but this is a low key heated rivalry, the Hogs crowd will be rocking and I’m still unconvinced Texas’ offense can score at will when they don’t have comfortable leads from the jump. I’ll take Tulane -6.5 against Navy as, sadly, the Midshipmen have started to look incredibly pedestrian in recent weeks while Tulane is wildly more talented and can clinch an AAC title appearance in this one. I know I’ve had varying success betting on the Orange this year, but I’m all over Syracuse +9.5 out on the road against Cal. I just think there are more ways Cuse keeps this one close and/or wins than there are scenarios where Cal’s offense is able to truly pull away. Lastly, give me Notre Dame -23 against Virginia, and Oregon -14.5 against Wisconsin as I think these two playoff teams roll against their incredibly average opponents.

OnlyRans (44-53)

I’m catching a lot of heat for having a rough year of betting. Warranted yes, but I think Tate needs to catch some strays too. I went 8-4 last week, nailed the upset call of the week (Georgia Tech over Miami) and am now half a percentage point behind Tate in terms of winning percentage. Do the math and check the tape. Is it because I did so well last year? Probably, but now you’re making me blush and I’m uncomfortable. All I’m saying is like a spunky mid-major who just won their conference tournament, I’m getting hot at the right time. Fade me at your own risk, plebeians. 

UCLA (4-5) @ Washington (5-5): WASH -4, O/U 46.5 - Friday 9:00 pm ET FOX

Pick UCLA +4: Is UCLA my new wagon? Are they the OnlyRans of college football? After surviving Hawai’i to kick off the season they lost 5 straight games but have since recovered and won their last 3. The only thing that scares me here is being on the road at night against a Washington team that has to win if they want to make a bowl because their only other regular season game is against Oregon. I’m riding the hot hand in UCLA that’s coming into form at just the right time. 

Houston (4-5) @ Arizona (3-6): ARIZ -1, O/U 45.5 - Friday 10:15 pm ET FS1

Pick Houston +1: Like UCLA, Houston has turned their season on a dime after an inauspicious start. They made a quarterback change a few weeks back and have won three of their last four. Arizona has lost 5 in a row and has seemingly folded on the season. I’m ignoring that there are pyramids in the desert for a reason motto because it’s my betting preview and I get to selectively pick when I reference that based on when it helps my narrative. Houston and the fighting Willie Fritz’s steal one in Tucson here. 

Utah (4-5) @ Colorado (7-2): COLO -11.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX

Pick Utah +11.5: The premise here is simple: this is way too many points for the best defense Colorado has faced all year. Utah laid it all out on the line against their rival BYU last weekend and lost, but defense travels and this game is at 10am local time. If Utah is emotionally spent after that aforementioned loss, then fine, Colorado rolls and we get to continue marveling at Travis Hunter and the Deion haters clutching their pearls. Win-Win in my book.

#20 Clemson (7-2) @ Pittsburgh (7-2): CLEM -10, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Clemson -10: Didn’t Clemson just play this type of game and cover? Feisty ACC team on the road with a decent QB? Yeah, they did and the game wasn’t competitive past the first quarter in Blacksburg. Since starting 7-0, Pitt has dropped their last two and their QB has played horrendously four games in a row. He’s fading and so is Pitt. Wah, so sad. Feel awful for them. Shucks.  

Rapid fire time because it worked really well for me last weekend which I won’t stop mentioning. Penn State -28.5 at Purdue. Purdue lost to Oregon and Ohio State at home by a combined score of 80-0. Why would Penn State be any different? Notre Dame -23 v Virginia. Did you know Notre Dame has covered 66% of their games since Marcus Freeman became head coach which is the highest clip in the nation? Irish roll at home because that’s what they always do, MAC teams notwithstanding. SMU -19.5 v Boston College. Boston College is on the wrong side of the news right now as QB Thomas Castellanos got benched, took a few days away from the team, and is now in the transfer portal. Now they head to the red hot Mustangs who are well on their way to clinching their first ACC Championship appearance. Don’t like that combo for the Eagles. South Carolina -13.5 v Mizzou. Mizzou QB Brady Cook is doubtful and South Carolina might be the hottest team in the country. Give me the Gamecocks at home. Boise State -13.5 @ SJSU. Lmao one team has Ashton Jeanty and it’s not San Jose State…are you kidding me?

Last two because I rolled to a perfect 4-0 in this section last week picking these favorites. Oregon -14 @ Wisconsin. Wisconsin has fallen off a cliff since their farcical midseason revival and even though Oregon is just trying to play it safe and get healthy, if this game is close they can put on the burners and put this game away. BYU -2.5 v Kansas. BYU has been playing with fire all year long but I think I have a perfect record picking their games and that includes a +2.5 pick for Utah last weekend. Kansas beat the hell out of Iowa State last weekend and looked to be the team we expected them to be all year long. Too bad they now head to Provo in what has become my most talked-about stadium for some unknown reason. Must be those people who show up at my door. Wait, those at Jehovah’s Witnesses. 

Underdog time because America loves them and I like what roughly half of what America likes if you catch my drift. Arizona State +8.5 @ Kansas State because Sun Devils RB Cam Skattebo looks to be playing and Kansas State’s QB knows nothing about football except how to throw picks. Cincinnati +9.5 @ Iowa State. I think I’ve made a call on every Big 12 game this weekend which might be the sickest thing I’ve done this entire season. Cincy is coming off a dud of a loss to West Virginia while Iowa State just got drilled by Kansas. Both teams have nothing to play for except who won’t have to go to the Autozone Liberty Bowl in Memphis? This game will stay closer than a touchdown. Syracuse +8.5 @ Cal. I just watched this Cal team and while Wake made them look like the Greatest Show on Turf, Syracuse didn’t forget how to play football. This might be the grossest ACC conference game my little brain could ever fathom. Give me the Orange…I guess. I need to stop this section immediately. 

Upset Call of the Week

The rules for this section are simple. We’re both going to pick a double-digit underdog to pull off the upset outright. This does not count for or against our betting totals above (not that it’d matter for either of us - the real ones note the change here) but it’s simply for bragging rights.

Rand: Arkansas +13.5 over Texas

Tate: Arkansas +13.5 over Texas

Wake Forest

Wake Forest (4-5) @ UNC (5-4): UNC -11.5, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET ACCN

A rivalry in college football is not a binary concept. It’s a fluid definition and can change based on which fan you’re talking to, the current state of the program, or historical precedent. If you’re reading this you probably root for a team and have a hated rival. Maybe you hate a lot of teams. Fine and fair. Whatever your reason is for it, I’m sure it’s personal. Familial ties? Geography? A string of stinging losses? They cheat? Childhood pain and suffering? They don’t respect you and you relish being the underdog? All of the above? I fall into all of the above category plus about 60 other ones I won’t possibly bore you with. Rivalries make college athletics great. Michigan and Ohio State have been a relative dead heat for their entire existence while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for example is one of the most one-sided rivalries to exist. I can’t possibly understand your personal disdain for your rival (unless you’re a Wake fan from Winston) but I can empathize with you. What happens on the football field doesn’t matter. I don’t care if Wake is 8-0 and UNC is serving the death penalty they deserve, just win. Both of these teams are mediocre at best but I don't care. I don’t care what happens in UGA - Tennessee or if every single top 10 team loses this weekend. My happiness is contingent on this nondescript ACC game. Florida plays LSU this weekend in a meaningless game but don’t tell me those fans don’t care. Texas plays Arkansas and hell, Rutgers plays Maryland. Whoever and whatever it is, you want to beat the shit out of them and that’s what I want Wake to do. Spread is 11.5? That’s a lot. I. Don’t. Care. Beat the ever-living shit out of UNC and if it doesn’t happen, it’s an outcome I’m unfortunately accustomed to. It won’t change my disdain nor the fervor I’ll approach the next contest with them. Field Hockey, basketball, intramural hockey, whatever. Beat Carolina. Dear God, Go mfing Deacs. 

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: Did you read what I just wrote? My ass is going to be in Chapel Hell. GTHC. 

Tate: It’s Tennessee and Georgia under the lights in Sanford Stadium. There’s an unofficial push for the fans to wear black which some of our players have joined in on, the red light show is going to go crazy at the end of the third quarter, and I do not expect to have a voice on Sunday. The season is on the line for the Dawgs - I’ll be there doing my part.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.