Let's Talk Ball: Week 11 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Whether you’re euphoric, despondent, or indifferent to the state of the country right now, we don’t blame you. We’re not here to bitch and moan, stoke the flames, or make sweeping generalizations about a group, party, or single person. That’s what college football is for. So let’s talk ball.

Top Week 11 Games to Watch

#2 Georgia (7-1) @ #16 Ole Miss (7-2): UGA -2.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ABC 

Well, folks, it’s the first Dawgs game of the season where I can tell you that I genuinely don’t know what to expect. Lane Kiffin apparently thought it would be funny to put half of his team’s roster on their injury report this week in a pretty clear troll move, which muddies the waters on who will really be available for Ole Miss for sixty minutes. Enough has been said at this point about Carson Beck - he is a problem right now, and until we see him play 60 consecutive minutes of football without throwing several of the worst interceptions imaginable, we have to assume that’s what he’s going to do once or twice. But unlike a couple of the offenses that he’s done that against so far - like Florida’s last week - giving Ole Miss extra possessions is about as dangerous as it gets. 

But with that said, we’ve already seen how the Dawgs defense has responded against a really fast, dynamic offense on the road in the Texas game. And even though Ole Miss finally exploded offensively against Arkansas, they’ve had several games where they’ve really struggled to get things going offensively, and their inability to slice and dice good defenses while dominating bad ones has been a bit of a theme in the Kiffin tenure. The Rebs have also struggled to run the ball for much of the year, and while star receiver Tre Harris is likely going to play, he missed last week’s game with an injury and it appears he won’t be 100%. I’m not saying we’re going to shut the Ole Miss offense out by any means, they will get their points, but I’ve felt all week that we may be in for another classic UGA defense event that puts the country on notice. I still feel that way today.

So it’s all going to circle back to the offense’s ability to play a clean game. Game after game the offense has largely played very efficient football with the exception of the turnovers. Is Beck going to throw the ball directly to a dropping linebacker that he doesn’t even see two or three times? Again, we literally have to assume that he will until he doesn’t. If he does, we’ll be in for another dogfight. But if he doesn’t - and I think there will be a game where he doesn’t pretty soon - I think this game could be another “yeah, they literally only lose to Alabama” moment for the country. The Rebs are borderline dominant up front with transfers Princely Umanmielen and Walter Nolan leading the way, so it’d be a pleasant surprise if the Dawgs can establish the run early. But either way, it all comes down to Beck not turning the damn thing over six times. It’s time to go play your first truly clean game of the season, Dawgs. Go get it done and continue to remind the country who they should be afraid of. Go Dawgs.

#11 Alabama (6-2) @ #14 LSU (6-2): ALA -2.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC 

My how things have changed. In 2011, LSU and Alabama played a game that people still refer to as the “Game of the Century” which was an affair that ended in a 9-6 LSU win. Both teams had elite defensive players, including in the secondary, that basically all played in the NFL. Thirteen years later, and the only real expectation people seem to have about this game is that there’s likely to be points, points, and then more points.

For Alabama, the secondary has been plagued with constant communication breakdowns and blown coverages throughout the season which is highly concerning going up against LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier and his plethora of good receivers. Both teams are coming off of a bye, so maybe the Tide have been able to implement a game plan that everyone is on the same page about, but until the Missouri game two weeks ago - which was mostly about Missouri just sucking - we haven’t seen this Bama defense look like an actually good unit all season, and LSU may be the most talented offense they’ve played to date. It’s not all gloom and doom though - LSU has had a tendency to struggle to run the ball at times this year, and when they get entirely one dimensional we’ve seen them struggle to put points on the board (see: second half of the A&M game.) If I’m Alabama, I’m doing everything I can to completely take away LSU’s run game, bracketing Kyren Lacy as much as I can, and praying that Nussmeier doesn’t have enough to entirely put the team on his back for 60 minutes.

On the LSU side, we’re going to sound like a broken record as we are nearly two years into the Jalen Milroe tenure, but the game plan is as clear as day. The Tigers need to do everything they can to limit Jalen Milroe killing them with his legs and force him to become a pocket passer more than he’d like. Milroe got banged up a few weeks ago against South Carolina and has not looked like the same hilariously explosive athlete since then, but maybe the bye week has allowed him to heal up a bit in time for Saturday’s game. If he’s back to being healthy, we really don’t have much belief that LSU has the type of dudes to keep Milroe contained - hell, it took Georgia an entire half to figure it out - and if he gets going on the ground, the deep shot game to guys like Ryan Williams will open up and Milroe may suddenly look like the best QB of all time like he occasionally does.

All in all, no matter what happens, we’re certain this one is going to be electric. It’s Alabama vs LSU, at night, in Baton Rouge. There will be NFL talent all over the field, there will be points scored, and it’s likely to be a close game into the fourth quarter. We could talk about this matchup until we’re blue in the face, but you don’t really need us to get you hyped up for this one, do you?

Michigan (5-4) @ #8 Indiana (9-0): IU -14, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

Just as we all expected to be the case headed into the year, #8 Indiana is a two-touchdown favorite over defending national champion Michigan here in Week 11. It’s been an unbelievable ride for the Hoosiers that we’ve enjoyed as much as everyone else, but it’s also true that IU just simply has not played anybody yet. Sure, Michigan isn’t really “anybody” either this year, but they do possess a level of talent that none of Indiana’s previous opponents to this point possesses. 

It’ll start up front for both teams - Indiana has done a great job of protecting QB Kurtis Rourke this year which has allowed him to stand back and deliver over and over again. Can Michigan’s  future NFL studs Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham slow the IU run game down, muddy up the pocket and force Indiana to win a dogfight? It’s certainly within the realm of possibility. On the Michigan side offensively, things went a little smoother against #1 Oregon than they had all year which was interesting, especially because QB Davis Warren looked much improved after his benching earlier this year. If IU is struggling to slow down the Wolverines’ improving O-Line and their beast running back Kalel Mullings, Michigan might find success in taking their time, slowing this game down and limiting Indiana’s possessions and therefore ability to blow this thing out. We love everything about this Cinderella run Indiana is run and will even admit that we’ll be rooting for them on Saturday, but this is unquestionably the biggest test the Hoosiers have faced all season. Let’s see if they pass.

Conference and Playoff Races

We’re not going to bury the lede here: this week’s slate is weak. However, whether you’re a CFB newbie or a lifelong fan, you probably know that some of the craziest weekends come with the smallest of expectations. It’s crunch time for conference contenders and playoff hopefuls so below you’ll find a list of those teams facing weaker opponents and what’s on the line should they lose.

#2 Ohio State (7-1) @ Purdue (1-7): OSU -38, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX

The Stakes: Ohio State is neck and neck with Georgia as having the most impressive resume behind Oregon and the rankings accurately reflect that. The Buckeyes need to win out which would include victories over Indiana and Michigan to clinch a spot in the Big 10 title game. If they stub their toe against anyone they’ll have two losses and be staring down the barrel of a 10 seed. Win out and beat Oregon? They’ll be a top 2 seed. The margin for error is slim but the possible outcomes vary greatly. Root for the Buckeyes and Hoosiers this weekend and next so we can get a top 5 matchup in the Shoe on November 23rd.  

#4 Miami (9-0) @ Georgia Tech (5-4): MIA -11.5, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN

The Stakes: Miami is ranked #4 in the country mainly by default. They’re undefeated, a name brand, and have a Heisman candidate at QB, but are still not being taken too seriously. They’ve teetered on the edge of disaster in four of their last five games but in the end, they pull away mainly off the simple fact they have Cam Ward and the other team doesn’t. Is Georgia Tech talented enough to beat them? Not on paper, but if you recall the game last year, Miami refused to kneel the ball and instead they fumbled and Georgia Tech threw a Hail Mary to win. Everyone - us included - expects the other shoe to drop. But give credit where it’s due, it hasn’t happened yet and if they finish out the last three games without a mystifying loss they’d buck 20 years of precedent. Maybe 2024 is the year of bucking 20-year-old trends…for better or for worse. 

Florida (4-4) @ #5 Texas (7-1): TEX -21.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ABC

The Stakes: You know who really doesn’t have an impressive resume? Well Florida yes, but also Texas. Is beating Vandy by three in Nashville their best win? Beating Michigan in the Big House is a rite of passage these days and the lingering question from the Oklahoma game is how were they not able to beat them by more. Compared to the other one-loss teams like Georgia (who they lost to), Ohio State, or Penn State, their SOS is significantly weaker, and in the eyes of the playoff committee, that stuff matters. We expect them to beat Florida at home but the Horns need to start thinking about style points. Gators QB DJ Lagway was last seen on the back of a cart in Jacksonville but is miraculously listed as questionable for the game. It’s crunch time for Texas whose singular objective remains the same: just win. 

#17 Iowa State (7-1) @ Kansas (2-6): ISU -2.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET FS1

The Stakes: Iowa State took their first loss of the season last week in a hard-fought one-point defeat to Texas Tech last weekend, but the Cyclones remain one of the best teams in the Big 12. So it only makes sense that as they take on 2-6 Kansas this weekend, they’re heavily favored by… 2.5??? That is wildly confusing, but it has become pretty clear as the weeks have gone on that even the “best” Big 12 teams aren’t all that different from the rest of the pack. We’ve been talking and joking all year about how much parity would exist in the league this year, but even we didn’t expect just how equal all the teams would be. The Cyclones control their own destiny and really need to go get this road victory - this will be an intense game.

#23 Clemson (6-2) @ Virginia Tech (5-4): CLEM -6.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

The Stakes: Is it too early in the Brent Pry era for this to be an anxiety bowl against Clemson? Perhaps, but if Hokies QB Kyron Drones and RB Bhayshul Tuttle are out again, they might get a pass. That being said, this Clemson team is gettable and coming off an ass beating from Louisville. This could be an anxiety bowl for Clemson as all the goodwill Dabo, OC Garrett Riley, and QB Cade Klubnik built up following the flop against Georgia evaporated last weekend in Death Valley. A loss to a lowly and injured Virginia Tech might ensure Dabo won’t be able to cast a ballot in the state of South Carolina for the 2026 midterms. After this, the Tigers have a trip to Pittsburgh and a visit from South Carolina. Their season is effectively over but there’s still a lot of meat left on the bone for Dabo to ensure he’s about to endure the longest offseason of his career. 

#20 Colorado (6-2) @ Texas Tech (6-3): COLO -3.5, O/U 62.5 - Saturday 4:00 pm ET ESPN

The Stakes: Do you want to see Deion Sanders in the playoff or not? Then root your ass off for Colorado. Colorado has a manageable schedule to make the Big 12 championship but as is the theme for most of this section, they cannot drop another one. Heading to equally-in-the-race Texas Tech, this is probably the Buffs hardest test left. What will be interesting to watch is we sometimes talk about strength v strength in a matchup but how about weakness v weakness? As we know, Colorado’s offensive line is a sieve, but Texas Tech couldn’t rush the QB if this were flag football. Travis Hunter, flying tortillas, and a metric fuck ton of points. What else could you want in a college football game?

Maryland (4-4) @ #1 Oregon (9-0): ORE -25, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET BTN

The Stakes: Oregon has a lot of wiggle room and can afford to drop a game or two and still make the playoffs. With a remaining schedule of Wisconsin and Washington, they can effectively clinch a playoff berth with a win here. Expect monotony and mundane play calls against a rudderless Terps team, but they’ll still win by 30+. Oregon is coasting to the Big 10 Championship game for a likely rematch against the Buckeyes. Their only concern should be health and staying locked in even though Ducks fans can already taste the #1 seed. I’ve always wondered if wet bread is appetizing. Probably not, but to each their own.

Mississippi State (2-7) @ #7 Tennessee (7-1): TENN -23.5, O/U 61 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

The Stakes: Much of the conversation about potential SEC Championship matchups have involved Georgia, Texas, LSU, and even A&M until the Aggies’ awful loss last week. But the Vols are right in the thick of things with only one conference loss to date and an opportunity to knock the Dawgs out of the race next week in Athens. To do that, they’re going to need to finally get this offense really rolling which they’ve struggled to do all year - look for Tennessee to start moving at a faster pace and try to work through some more kinks against the Bulldogs on Saturday to get ready for the other Bulldogs. Tennessee is quietly still in the thick of both the SEC and Playoff race.

Florida State (1-8) @ #10 Notre Dame (7-1): ND -26.5, O/U 42.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET NBC

The Stakes: As you can see by the spread, it appears that just about nobody thinks the Noles have a shot of hanging with the Irish on the road. For Notre Dame, they really need to make sure that’s exactly what happens. The Irish already have arguably the worst loss of the season against Northern Illinois this week, and while staying with only one loss probably does get them into the CFP… but what if it doesn’t? What if they look awful on Saturday and win something like 14-13 and continue to look lackluster for the rest of the regular season? They’d be a team with the worst loss in the country, an extremely light schedule, wouldn’t play in a conference championship game and because of the automatic qualifying structure of the new playoff format, they’re really only fighting for one of seven spots. Again, we still think 11-1 will get them in but they better kick the hell out of an awful FSU team here, even if it’s just for home field advantage purposes in the first round.

Nevada (3-7) @ #12 Boise State (7-1): Boise -24, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET FOX

The Stakes: Boise has to win out to make the playoff, it’s that simple, and they’re expected to do so. We loathe playoff hypotheticals, blind resume rankings, and any overreaction to the meaningless in-season playoff rankings just as much as the next person because this will all work itself out. However, here’s a fun hypothetical for you: Boise State could back their way into the #4 seed of the playoff and thus a first round bye. It’s unlikely and would require a perfect storm sure, but it’s not out of the question. They’d need to win out (duh), BYU to drop a game (not inconceivable), and then have Army win out which would include beating Notre Dame (uhhhhh). Reminder, the top four seeds go to the highest-ranked conference champions, they’re not automatically slotted to the P4. So in that scenario, you’d potentially have a Big 10, ACC, SEC, and Boise as the top 4 seeds. You want to see the SEC and Big 10 pack their bags and go create super conferences with their own playoffs before the end of the decade? This is the scenario for that. Imagine a Boise State team ahead of a 2-loss Georgia or 1-loss Ohio State. Or even crazier, what if Oregon drops their Big 10 championship and then they’re behind the team they beat head to head? Again, we could play this game all day long and think it’s a futile exercise but if you want your chaos agent in the playoff, root for the Smurf Turf and Army. Oh, and Ashton Jeanty is going to run for a million yards here against a putrid Nevada defense.

Trivia Questions

Who was the last player from a Group of Five school to be a Heisman Finalist - i.e. invited to New York? Who was the last Heisman Trophy winner from a Group of Five school?

Tate’s Great Picks (41-44)

South Carolina (5-3) @ Vanderbilt (6-3): SoCar -3.5, O/U 46 - Saturday 4:15 pm ET SECN

Pick Vanderbilt +3.5: Look man, I’ve said it for weeks. The rules are simple. If you’re giving me Vanderbilt with points, I am going to take them until they prove me wrong. Another huge Dores win on the way.

#11 Alabama (6-2) @ #14 LSU (6-2): ALA -2.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC

Pick Game Total Over 58.5: This game is going to be a banger not only because it’s a classic rivalry between a bunch of future NFL players, but also because both of these secondaries kinda suck while both groups of receivers are very good. I’m expecting some major fireworks here - it ain’t 2011 anymore.

#17 Iowa State (7-1) @ Kansas (2-6): ISU -2.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET FS1

Pick ISU -2.5: Obviously this line is super weird and any sane person would stay far away from it, but I’ve had good luck this year betting on games where the line freaks me out. Hot take here, but I think one of the Big 12’s best teams that remains in the playoff race beats 2-6 Kansas by at least 3. Crazy, I know.

#20 Colorado (6-2) @ Texas Tech (6-3): CU -3.5, O/U 62.5 - Saturday 4:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Game Total Over 62.5: I know that this is a crazy amount of points to still be betting the over on, but this game is going to be drunk to a degree I’m not sure we’ve quite seen so far this season. Texas Tech has given up 59, 51, 41, and 35 points in separate games this season, and Colorado has Travis Hunter catching passes for them. I think this one flies over.

Mississippi State (2-7) @ #7 Tennessee (7-1): UT -23.5, O/U 61 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick UT -23.5: As we discussed above, this is Tennessee’s last shot to get their offense right before the most important stretch of their season. MSU is the perfect opponent for that - Tennessee rolls big.

#2 Georgia (7-1) @ #16 Ole Miss (7-2): UGA -2.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ABC

Pick UGA -2.5: Ole Miss won’t be able to run it on our front, and I think we get after Dart on some of the Rebels’ slow-developing pass plays. People are doubting the Dawgs once again, and I believe that once again we’ll respond with fury. Dawgs get a big November road win and cover.

OnlyRans (36-49)

Iowa (6-3) @ UCLA (3-5): IOWA -6.5, O/U 44.5 - Friday 9:00 pm ET FOX

Pick UCLA +6.5: UCLA has shown sneaky competence after winning their past two road games against Rutgers and Nebraska. Now they welcome an Iowa team that refuses to throw the ball and relies entirely on the run, albeit effectively. I’ll take UCLA at home and their 11th-best in the nation run defense to cover against the Hawkeyes. This may be dumb, but rock fights are by nature. 

Holy War: #9 BYU (8-0) @ Utah (4-4): BYU -3.5, O/U 40.5 - Saturday 10:15 pm ET ESPN

Pick Utah +3.5: If you’ve read my nonsense long enough you’ll know that I hold the BYU and Utah stadiums in very high regard, perhaps irrationally so. Wouldn’t know, haven’t been to either, want to. Anyways, Utah’s season is done but what they can do is ruin their arch rival’s best season since 1983, at home, at night, in Rice-Eccles. Utah will need to drag BYU down to their level and make the game an unwatchable dogfight and I’m betting they can. To add fuel to the fire this week, Utah CB Jaylon Glazer had to publicly apologize for saying “fuck BYU.” Ohhhhh things are getting chippy in Utah! Watch out for flying apple juice and mean looks!

Oklahoma (5-4) @ #24 Missouri (6-2): OU -3, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 7:45 pm ET SECN

Pick Mizzou +3: Here is your weekly “Vegas is begging you to fall into their trap” line and I’m going to fall for it and pick Mizzou. Last week it was Vandy and Auburn and I avoided the trap by picking Auburn. This time I’m diving headfirst into the Indiana Jones Kali Ma pit. Will Mizzou’s QB and RB play this week due to injury? Will Oklahoma have a starting WR for the first time since August? Zero clue, but what I do know is I’d never bet on Oklahoma covering 3 points on the road.

Texas State (4-4) @ UL Monroe (5-3): TXST -7.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPNU

Pick ULM +7.5: Here’s a sicko pick but I’ve got some solid reasoning which might result in you fading the hell out of me. Wouldn’t blame you but if you actually do fade me on a Texas State-ULM pick, please send me photo evidence because you are a sicko and I am in awe of you. Texas State has lost 2 games in a row to solid Sun Belt teams and their offense regressed to not breaking 20 in either game. ULM is vying to reach their second ever bowl game after coming up from FCS in 1994. 30 years, one bowl game, yeesh. Let’s ride Warhawks.

New Mexico (3-6) @ San Diego State (3-5): SDSU -2.5, O/U 66.5 - Friday 10:30 pm ET FS1

Pick New Mexico +2.5: Pop quiz: who has the Mountain West’s best scoring and total offense behind Boise State? I know, easy question, it’s New Mexico. They buoy their electric offense with a refusal to play defense but I don’t think SDSU has the guns to keep up with them. I’ll take a flier on New Mexico hanging 45 here.

I just picked 5 underdogs in a row? Is something wrong with me? Don’t answer that. Alright, here are 4 straight favorites I like to cover (this is not a parlay unless you make it one).

Clemson -6.5 over Virginia Tech

Liberty -11 over MTSU

Colorado -3.5 over Texas Tech

Alabama -3 over LSU

What do all of those teams have in common? They’re all on the road and boast the vastly superior QB. 

Home favorites more your style? Hold on, let me cook real quick.

Indiana -14 over Michigan

NC State -3 over Duke

Oregon -25 over Maryland

I’ve gotta mix it up to get OnlyRans back on track. Maybe this will work, maybe it’ll fail spectacularly, or maybe next week I’ll make predictions based on which hand Tate’s dog takes a treat out of my hand first.

Upset Call of the Week

The rules for this section are simple. We’re both going to pick a double-digit underdog to pull off the upset outright. This does not count for or against our betting totals above (not that it’d matter for Rand) but it’s simply for bragging rights.

Rand: Georgia Tech +11 over Miami. I may be an idiot, but so is Mario Cristobal.

Tate: Washington +13 over Penn State: Penn State is pretty good but also sucks. Washington kinda sucks, too, but is also pretty good. I think this will be a close one. 

Wake Forest

California (4-4) @ Wake Forest (4-4): Cal -7, O/U 54.5 - Friday 8:00 pm ET ACCN

The #Calgorithm was a cute story in September, but now they’re public enemy number one - for at least three hours on Friday night. They lost four ACC games in a row by a combined 9 points and are the only team in the nation to lose to Florida State. I’m not impressed. They have one of the worst offenses in the ACC, they refuse to say if their star RB is going to play or not, and their QB could easily be confused for Slenderman. I’m not scared of the Calgorithm or anyone who resides in the city of Berkeley, but will welcome this like-minded institution to Winston-Salem with open arms. What I am scared of is their defense. They have the ACC’s top-ranked scoring defense, second-best total defense, and second-best red zone defense. The Cardiac Deacs have their work cut out for them if they want to continue their midseason turnaround and get one step closer to attaining bowl eligibility. WR Donavon Green might be back and RB Demond Claiborne looks like he’ll be a full go after hurting his shoulder against Stanford. I’m struggling to hype myself up for this matchup given the records of both teams, the fact we’re playing a conference opponent for the first time ever, and I feel like I haven’t seen a Wake football game in over a month because of weddings, bye weeks, and travel. Those feelings will immediately subside when I wake up on game day and start packing the car to tailgate. I shouldn’t need to hype myself up for an important night game for Wake Forest in November, but I suspect I’m not the only one with similar, fleeting feelings of apathy given current events whether they’re Oregon, Wake, or UNC (lol) fans. Let’s kick the shit out of these nerds and if you’re participating in Senior Fifth - which I will not confirm or deny my previous involvement for legal reasons - be safe and have fun. I may or may not be jealous. Go Deacs.

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: By the time you read this on Thursday I’ll be in Charlotte for a work event, Friday I’ll be in Winston-Salami for the Wake game, Saturday you can find me on my patio with multiple TVs, a fire pit, and a lack of responsibilities. On Sunday, I’ll be in Greensboro for the Wake-Michigan basketball game before I fly to Sea Island, GA for another work event at 6 am Monday morning. Big weekend for the Deacs and if you approach me with menial tasks like moving furniture or yard work, I can’t be bothered. You know who you are.

Tate: It’s the Dawgs' third road trip to one of the SEC’s best teams but for the first time this season, I won’t be making the trip with them. We’ve got some big time games coming up to close the season - including next week’s Tennessee game, tickets for which are running around $450 just to get into the stadium - and I’ll be saving a few pennies to get ready for the SEC Championship and potential playoff run. Catch me in Atlanta this weekend.

Trivia answers: 

Last G5 Heisman Finalist: Jordan Lynch - QB Northern Illinois in 2013

Last G5 Heisman Winner: Roger Staubach - QB Navy in 1963

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.