Drunk Toddlers Fighting: Week 6 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. America is the land of opportunity but given recent events it should be renamed the land of second chances. America loves a good comeback story, especially ones with unforgivable and incomprehensible character flaws. Take Bobby Petrino, who is now the interim head coach of Arkansas after they canned Sam Pittman last weekend. We did a brief explainer into the history of this man a few years back. The short of it is, in 2012 while the head coach of the Razorbacks, Petrino wrecked his motorcycle where he claimed to be alone when talking to the police. Turns out he had a former Arkansas volleyball player on the back of the bike at the time. Oh and he had previously hired her for an admin role in the athletic department. And he had given her $200k and showered her with gifts. Would you now be surprised to learn they were having an affair? Methinks not. So take a page out of the Bobby Petrino book: nothing matters in life, there are no consequences, do something crazy today. Text your ex or something because they just might want to get back with you…but not before you read our Week 6 Preview. Salud. 

The Two Week 6 Games to Watch

#16 Vanderbilt (5-0) @ #10 Alabama (3-1): ALA -10.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

If someone told you 18 months ago that in early October 2025, 5-0 and #16 Vanderbilt would be headed to Tuscaloosa to try to beat Alabama in back-to-back years, what would you have said? That’s the reality as the ‘Dores look like not just a scrappy, hard-working bunch, but a legitimate contender in the league with one of the country’s best quarterbacks in Diego Pavia. It cannot be understated what a job Clark Lea has done so far in his tenure in Nashville - Vandy is good in all three phases of the game and plays with a swagger that is impossible to fake.

Unfortunately, they’re running into an Alabama team that appears to be somewhat of a buzzsaw at the moment. If it isn’t Diego Pavia, it’s Ty Simpson who is the SEC’s best quarterback as we enter October and the Tide are finally back at (nearly) full strength. Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton are as good of a receiving trio as you can have in college football. The offensive line looks to be coming into their own, the defensive line now looks pretty great with the return of Tim Keenan, and we already knew the secondary was pretty damn good. 

Are we expecting Vandy to win? No - this Alabama team looks like one of the best in the country right now. But would we be shocked if Diego Football and the ‘Dores did it again? Not at all. This is going to be an awesome game, and even if the ‘Dores drop this one, they have a serious shot at the playoff laid out in front of them. Vandy at Alabama is must-watch football at 3:30 on ABC. Who woulda thunk it?

#3 Miami (4-0) @ #18 Florida State (3-1): MIA -4.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

This would’ve been a top 5 matchup had Florida State not done exactly what Vegas warned would happen and go blow for blow with a UVA offense that’s one of the best in the country. C'est la vie but we still get a massive game in Doak-Campbell on Saturday night with Miami coming to town. Florida State and the Gus Mahlzahn offense runs the ball 66% of the time which is one of the highest non-service academy rates in the nation. The problem is, Miami has one of the best DLs in the nation led by quasi Heisman candidate Reuben Bain. When the Noles do throw it, they’ll target 6’6 WR Duce Robinson and sprinkle in some Micahi Danzy. But the Canes still match up well there as they’re top 25 unit in passing defense and oppoenents are only converting 25% of their third downs. This Canes defense is the real deal and the chess match between Gus Mahlzahn and DC Corey Heatherman will decide the game.

On the other side of the ball, Miami also happens to have one of the best OLs in the country and excels at keeping QB Carson Beck upright. Florida State struggled mightily at the whole tackling thing against the Hoos and that’s not a good problem to have when going against Canes workhorse RB Mark Fletcher. The case for FSU pulling off an upset in this game is even with their tackling woes, they’ll need to stop the run and force Carson Beck and his unproven WRs to beat them with his arm. It’s the same playbook that sprung an upset win over Alabama in Week 1. They’ve got 6 picks on the year which is among the nations leaders but they’ve struggled at protecting the ball themselves given their even turnover margin. Should the Noles lose, they’ll need to win out and root for Virginia to collapse down the stretch just to make it to Charlotte. 

The Other Week 6 Games to Watch

In the noon slate on Saturday, we head to America’s armpit of Cincinnati, Ohio, whose most famous exports are shitty chili and Charles Manson. Undefeated and #14 Iowa State rolls into town as a 1.5 point dawg, which has our eyebrows raised. What does Vegas see that we don’t? Since an opening weekend loss to Nebraska, Cincy has beaten Bowling Green and Northwestern State before a surprising upset victory over Kansas last weekend. Cincy has a very explosive offense and a great run defense, but those numbers might be inflated thanks to the fact they hung 70 on Northwestern State. We’re curious about the line, but Iowa State is a machine and will drag the Bearcats into a rock fight here. Over in Chapel Hill, we’ve got the preseason ACC game of the year, a coaching matchup of Dabo v Jordon Hudson, a shoe-in for College GameDay. Life was full of optimism, hope, and promises of eternal riches for Clemson and UNC just a few weeks ago, and then they both stepped on a football field. Since their ephemeral and euphoric opening touchdown drive against TCU, the Heels have scored a total of 16 points against P4 competition and come in with a 2-2 record. Clemson has yet to score more than 21 points in a game and are 1-3 with a lone win over Troy in which they were losing at halftime. Like a car crash, this one will draw eyeballs, and we can’t wait to see the carnage. 

After watching two drunk toddlers fighting at Kenan Stadium, you’ll find the meat of the weekend slate in the 3:30pm ET window. Florida brings #9 Texas and Arch Manning into the Swamp, and if the Gators get blown out here, Napier might not make it to the locker room before he’s fired. The line is only Texas by a touchdown, which isn’t surprising given how mediocre Manning has looked this year, and Florida is usually good for a deadcat bounce or two. #21 Notre Dame brings Boise State to their cathedral as three-touchdown favorites. Notre Dame’s defense isn’t any good but their offense led by QB CJ Carr is a well-oiled machine. Notre Dame is going to be an interesting case study for the playoff moving forward because they might win out, but have zero quality wins aside from a future matchup with USC whom the jury is still out on. The surprise team of last week, #24 Virginia, gets to prove their upset win over Florida State wasn’t a fluke as they head to Louisville as TD underdogs. Louisville’s offensive playmakers - WR Chris Bell, RB Duke Watson, and RB Isaac Brown - have been banged up but all played in last weekend’s win over Pitt. If Virginia can get a win here, they could coast into the ACC Championship game with their remaining schedule and their lone loss to NC State was a non-conference game. We might see a billion points in this one.

For the nightcap, Mississippi State heads to Kyle Field to play #6 Texas A&M. The Bulldogs let a victory slip away in an OT loss to Tennessee last weekend, but they are feisty and have a hell of a rushing attack with Fluff Bothwell. The Aggies are quietly undefeated in a wide-open SEC and follow this game with Florida and Arkansas. You might need to start paying attention to the Aggie Cult. And for the insomniac sickos, we’ve warned you before, and we’ll continue to do it until we’re blue in the face. Get your eyes on current Cal QB and future SEC star Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele who hosts Duke and QB Darian Mensah in what is a battle of the top QBs in the ACC. 

Tate’s Great Picks 

Last Week: 4-3 // Season Record: 14-17 (45%)

Florida +6.5 vs Texas

Miami -4 @ FSU

Cal +3 vs Duke

Clemson -14.5 @ UNC

Baylor -6.5 vs Kansas State

Iowa State +1.5 @ Cincinnati 

Ohio -14.5 @ Ball State

Georgia -20.5 vs Kentucky

OnlyRans

Last Week: 5-4 // Season Record: 24-22 (52%)

Iowa State +1.5 @ Cincinnati: Never a good sign when Tate and I are in on a line that confuses us, but I’m rolling with the better QB and head coach in this one. Also, why would I listen to Vegas? They don’t know shit! 

ULM +11.5 @ Northwestern: This might be my ugliest ever pick but bear with me here. ULM is 3-1 with their only loss being a 73-0 trouncing to Bama the week after they lost to FSU. They force turnovers and have a solid rushing attack. Northwestern has a horrendous rushing attack and QB Preston Stone has more picks than TDs on the year. Warhawks.

Virginia @ Louisville over 62.5: This is a ‘I don’t care how big the total is, give me the over’ game. Both teams are top 25 nationally in scoring offense and against P4 competition, they’re giving up 30 ppg. 

Cal +2.5 v Duke: Riding with Cal at home 

UCF +4.5 v Kansas: UCF is coming off a bye and the Bounce House will be rocking at night. I like UCF’s rushing offense against Kansas’ sieve of a defense. 

Mississippi State +14.5 @ Texas A&M and game total over 55.5: Love the hook here for the Bulldogs and they’ll need to score some points in College Station to keep up with TAMU’s passing attack and WR Mario Craver. 

Miami -4.5 @ Florida State: This is not a good matchup for the Noles and the Canes are coming in well rested.

Texas -6.5 @ Florida: I don’t think Arch Manning is that good but I know DJ Lagway isn’t healthy. Hook ‘em.

Clemson @ UNC over 46.5: What happens when two anemic offenses meet two anemic defenses? Points. 

Wake Forest & Georgia

Wake Forest (2-2) @ Virginia Tech (2-3): VT -6.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 1:00pm ET The CW

Even while working at a golf tournament with zero cell service, did you really think I wasn’t going to get my eyes on at least half of the Wake-Georgia Tech game? Of course I did. The PGA set up half-decent WiFi networks for emergencies like mine, and even when I wasn’t at my computer, I made sure my coworkers were. I’m pretty sure the inventors of the walkie talkie immediately thought of the use cases beyond calling in bombs on the Axis forces such as radioing in game updates across large swaths of land. So yes, I saw the missed pass interference and offside call that cost Wake the game. Yes, the ACC released a statement apologizing for their officiating blunder which is about as meaningful as thoughts and prayers after a school shooting. What lost us the game was blowing a 17 point halftime lead in less than 20 minutes, missing a 27 yard field goal, kicking three more inside the redzone, completing less than 50% of our passes, and throwing a pick on a game winning 2 point conversion attempt. Despite all of that, we still had a chance to win the game and should have won the game. Regardless of your viewpoint on moral victories, I still believe in this team and the outcome does not change my perception of them. The Deacs are feisty and flawed and will pick off a team or two they’re not supposed to as the season progresses. 

It might start this weekend in Blacksburg who shocked NC State a few weeks after getting smoked to Old Dominion and firing head coach Brent Pry. Gauging teams on interim coaches is always challenging. It’s not uncommon to see a deadcat bounce following a firing but it’s hard to predict if that’s sustainable. Also, the Hokies were playing State who will choke on their own vomit for eternity. Anyway, Wake heads to Blacksburg for their first road game of the Dickert tenure in what will be a raucous crowd. The Deacs haven’t won in Lane Stadium since 1983. Against the Pack, the Hokies ran for 229 yards and only allowed 59 which is not a good matchup for the Deacs who want to run the rock and not rely on Ashford throwing the ball. Speaking of, Ashford may not even be 100% for this game after leaving with a knee injury against GT before returning. The same goes for RB Demond Claiborne who injured his shoulder on the overtime TD run. The good news is Wake’s boom or bust offense matches up well against VT who is horrible against preventing explosive plays. If Wake’s going to walk out of Lane with a win for the first time since Michael Jackson released Thriller, they’ll need to convert in the redzone and not settle for field goals which is the main reason they are sitting at 2-2 and not 3-1 or even 4-0. The opportunity is there, and this Virginia Tech team is an enigma. Deacs by a quintillion. 

Kentucky (2-2) @ #12 Georgia (3-1): UGA -20.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Who are we kidding, nobody is that interested in a Kentucky preview. You Dawg fans are all still reeling from the Alabama loss and I promise you, I am too. Once again, we had multiple opportunities to beat that team and once again, every one of those opportunities somehow slipped through our fingers. Bama scored ZERO second-half points and we still managed to lose at home for the first time in six years. Talyn Taylor dropped a wide open go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and then we infamously handed the ball to our small walk-on running back on 4th and 1 after probably getting it on third down, which we didn’t give the refs time to look at. It should have been a walk-in touchdown, but as I discussed as a concern in the preview, the two freshmen O-Linemen we had to play on the right side completely miscommunicated and let a Bama D Linemen directly into the backfield completely unimpeded. The type of mistakes we seemingly only make against Alabama.

I spent my Sunday entirely dejected, depressed, forcing myself to think more about the Atlanta Hawks than I ever have in September in my entire life. But I’ve gotten through this week realizing something: we’re probably completely fine. Again, we had every opportunity to win that game. We were in this exact same situation last year on the very same weekend, having lost a close game to Alabama, and we ended up winning the whole league while they didn’t even make the playoff. This time, we even get Ole Miss and Texas at home. I’m sick and tired of the offense looking like they’re just going through the motions early in games, but the offense continues to prove that they’re good. Gunner threw a few strikes, and we can actually run the ball this year - we’ve really got something going with Chauncey Bowens. As young and mistake-prone as the offensive line is, they seem to be finding themselves as a whole. The receivers, Branch and Colbie Young in particular, are incredible. And as annoyed as I am that our defense is seemingly in a constant state of “let’s just get to halftime and figure it out”, they continue to do just that. They are still incredibly young and inexperienced at several spots, and I do think they are overcoached, but when they’re clicking, they’re clicking.

The point is this: given the amount of youth we knew we’d be playing with this year, we were always likely to be better in November than we were going to be in September. We have a quarterback who has already proven to be able to show up when the moment calls for it, we have a serious run game, and we have a couple of incredible receivers. The defense, for as frustrating as it is at times, knows how to tighten shit up when they need to. We’re not perfect. We’re not the best team in the country right now, obviously. But I have a feeling that you’re not going to want to see us on your schedule come November, December, and January.

It’s just so f*cking annoying that it was them. Again.

Where in the World are We?

Tate: I am off to Vegas for my very first time for, somehow, a baby’s first birthday party. I hate gambling and being in casinos, so naturally I will be at the Bellagio watching my Dawgs play Kentucky at 9am local time. Look for me on the news.

Rand: A few weeks ago, UNC announced Ludacris would be playing a free concert leading into the UNC-Clemson game, with the hope being that this game would get a primetime TV slot. Well, when the combined wins between these two ACC ring leaders are Troy, Richmond, and Charlotte, you get thrown into the noon slot, and the Ludacris concert gets pushed to 10am. So guess where I’ll be at 10am? Yep, listening to an artist whose prime was 20 years ago when I owned an iPod shuffle and paid $1.29 for the explicit version of Money Maker. Parents’ weekend beckons for the Fisher family, and I’m sure it’ll be real easy to convince the patrons of the Carolina Inn to switch on the Wake-VT game in the middle of the UNC one. I’m screwed. 

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.