Don't Look Ahead: Week 6 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. For once, there’s something important we want to mention before we get into football so instead of writing something silly and sarcastic let’s get right into it, and then we promise the football talk will follow. 

Hurricane Helene Fundraiser

We all watched the harrowing news coverage and saw the pictures and videos that came out in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. You don’t need us to tell you the situation in the mountains of North Carolina is devastating and dire. My sisters & I (Rand) spent almost every summer in the Asheville area going to camp, learned to ski near my grandparent's mountain house on Beech Mountain, and have numerous family, friends, and neighbors who have been impacted by this storm not only in the mountains of North Carolina but Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia. I’m willing to bet every reader of this newsletter was personally impacted by the hurricane or knows someone who was. 

A close family friend of mine owns a moving company and along with his son (who’s a junior at App State), they’ve been using their company trucks, trailers, and resources to take supplies and donations to the area. They’ve been working with West Jefferson United Methodist Church to coordinate donations and items of need from the Winston-Salem community. If you’re willing & able we’d love to use our platform to try and help so we’re kindly asking for monetary donations. 100% of the funds will be given to the church where they’ll buy and distribute essential items like cleaning supplies, diapers, water, charcoal, blankets, and nonperishable foods.

Venmoing either of us @Rand-Fisher or @Tate-Smillie is the preferred method but we also accept Cash App, Zelle, or Apple Cash. Feel free to shoot us a text or email if you have questions and we sincerely appreciate the help and support. 

Top Week 6 Games to Watch

#9 Missouri (4-0) @ #25 Texas A&M (4-1): TAMU -2, O/U 48.5 - Saturday noon ET ABC

A top ten team is a road underdog and as you’ll see below, they’re not the only one. Missouri has looked very pedestrian over their past two games against Boston College and particularly Vanderbilt who took them to overtime and probably should have beaten them. It’s been a little difficult to figure out what’s going on with the Tigers offensively, especially because this is largely the same collection of players that they won 11 games with last year. So far this season, Mizzou has really struggled to hit explosive plays despite the fact Theo Wease is one of the best veteran receivers in the SEC, who plays alongside arguably the best receiver in the entire country in Luther Burden. The offense hasn’t been bad by any means, but most of the time has just seemed a little off. Whether it’s the offensive line missing a block on an important down, QB Brady Cook missing a throw at the wrong time, or the receivers just not being able to turn those seven-yard slants into 40-yard gains as often as they did last year, the offense as a whole just isn’t striking fear into opponents’ hearts at the moment. As we’ve talked about many times, we’re high on Texas A&M’s front seven, which means Mizzou’s run game is likely to be slowed down to a degree on Saturday, so Cook and his receivers ability to start hitting some explosive plays will become a necessity to pull out a W.

At the same time, A&M’s offense isn’t exactly keeping defensive coordinators up at night either, to say the least. It sounds like Marcel Reed will get the start at QB over Conner Weigman once again, and while he’s looked like the better option of the two so far this year, he’s definitely more limited in what he is able to do as a passer than Weigman is. The fact of the matter is that A&M has only one way to win SEC games this year - play bend-but-don’t-break defense, control the game and clock offensively, don’t turn the ball over, and try to win 24-20. Can they do that against Missouri? Sure, but we aren’t as sold as Vegas seems to be that they can actually do it against a good team quite yet. 

#10 Michigan (4-1) @ Washington (3-2): WASH -2.5, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET NBC

Michigan is on the road for the first time since November 18th of last year and under the lights at Husky Stadium is not an easy proposition. We all hammered USC in the Big House a few weeks back after declaring Michigan as fraudulent and rightfully got burned. The expectations have been adjusted but Michigan is good, decent, above average, whatever you want to call them. Washington is coming off of a road loss to Rutgers and lost to Wazzu earlier in the year. In the loss to Wazzu, the Huskies struggled to contain dual-threat QB John Mateer on the ground while Rutgers ran the ball down their gullets. Washington QB Will Rogers continues to be one of the most efficient QBs in the nation while Michigan QB (if you can call him that) Alex Orji is coming off a career-high 86 yards passing. Congratulations Alex! This rematch of the 2023 national championship features two new coaches, two new QBs, and almost entirely new rosters on both sides of the field. There’s not much else on during this time slot so we know there will be a lot of eyeballs on this one…ours included.

#8 Miami (5-0) @ Cal (3-1): MIA -10, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 10:30 pm ET ESPN

Given the demographic makeup of Miami and South Beach, Cal Twitter hasn’t sarcastically gone full-blown Marxist as they did against Auburn and FSU. However, they have collectively dubbed this game as Woke v Coke which is an outstanding moniker for an otherwise nondescript game. College GameDay is visiting Berkeley for the first time ever in what promises to be an incredible atmosphere. The BART metro system is offering extended services to get fans to campus to see Herbstreit and the gang. Sidenote: now that GameDay and its assets made the trek to the West Coast you can go ahead and book them for Eugene next week. Not only is this the first-ever GameDay for Cal, but it’s also a 10:30 pm ET kick for Miami which is just another circumstance of realignment. The Miami equipment bus left on Tuesday to make the 3,104-mile journey which is asinine for a conference game. 

Cal had an off week after falling to FSU a few weeks ago and has hopefully used the time off to concoct an offensive game plan. They are below average statistically at running the ball, passing the ball, and putrid at protecting QB Fernando Mendoza. What they lack on offense, they more than make up for on defense which is stout in all phases of the game but most importantly at turnovers. They lead the nation with 10 picks on the year but it’s important to note they played Auburn which has thrown 4 picks on two different occasions this year. Last week against Virginia Tech, Miami completely reversed course and seemingly forgot how to tackle, protect the football, and run the ball but survived anyway. QB Cam Ward will need to be better with his decision-making because Cal is an opportunistic bunch. This should be one of the best atmospheres in college football this weekend and when was the last time you can remember watching a meaningful broadcast from Memorial Stadium?

Seven More Games to Watch if You’re a Sicko Like Us

Syracuse (3-1) @ #25 UNLV (4-0): UNLV -7, O/U 58.5 - Friday 9:00 pm ET FS1

If you asked us in the preseason which G5 school outside of Boise State we’d end up talking about the most through the first third of the season, an FBI interrogator wouldn’t have gotten us to say UNLV. That has changed after the Rebs started the season with 2 P4 wins (Houston and Kansas), had their starting QB quit after an NIL fiasco, and are now ranked for the first time in school history. Enter Syracuse into the fray, nay, strip, and their potent offense led by blacklisted Ohio State transfer QB Kyle McCord. McCord is leading the nation in passing yards per game, completions per game, and 4th in touchdowns with 14. Will Howard meanwhile is uhhh not putting up those stats! One of McCord's favorite targets is TE Oronde Gadsden II who is cut from the Brock Bowers cloth of being the freakiest athlete on the field when healthy. UNLV meanwhile has a dynamic offense of its own but its defense is more impressive with 9 interceptions on the year. Look out for senior DB Jalen Catalon who is leading the nation with 4 picks to his name. A UNLV win here would keep them neck and neck with Boise State as the presumed leaders for the G5 playoff spot and the good vibes rolling in Vegas which is desperate for attention. Alright maybe not, but can head coach Barry Odom figure out the water crisis? That’d be equally impressive as turning around this doormat of a program. 

SMU (4-1) @ #22 Louisville (3-1): LOU -7, O/U 56.5 - Saturday noon ET ESPN

Remember in the offseason when we dubbed SMU as a dark horse ACC contender and QB Preston Stone as one of the best QBs in the conference? Well, we were half right in that calculation and a lot of that had to do with how SMU’s schedule shaked out. Stone has been relegated to making sure the offensive line has water during timeouts and SMU passed their ‘test’ against FSU last weekend, if you can even call it that. The 18-15 loss to currently undefeated BYU is aging very well and this upcoming trip to Louisville is a quasi-battle for third place in the ACC behind Miami and Clemson. A Mustangs loss here wouldn’t be the end of the world as the rest of their schedule is buns while Louisville still has to face the aforementioned Tigers & Canes. 

Louisville is coming off a masochistic loss to Notre Dame in which they turned the ball over 3 times, went 1-5 on 4th down, and outgained the Irish by over 100 yards. Aggressive play calling is a staple of a Jeff Brohm-coached team but there’s a fine line between aggressive and reckless, especially with the bull in the china shop play QB of Tyler Shough. Statistically speaking, Louisville is still one of the most balanced teams in the conference. They’ve got playmakers in the backfield and on the outside, their offensive line is excelling at protecting the QB, while their defense wreaks havoc in the backfields by racking up sacks and TFLs. All of that being said, their schedule has been hot garbage so take that with a grain of salt. Louisville needs this win a lot more than the Stangs do but the fuck it we ball playcalling of both Brohm and SMU’s Rhett Lashlee should provide some fireworks in this ‘Wait, these two teams are in the ACC?’ clash. 

#12 Ole Miss (4-1) @ South Carolina (3-1): MISS -9, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

The Rebs head to Hellpit, South Carolina after a shocking home loss to Kentucky last week that happened because Kentucky did a great job of keeping the ball away from Ole Miss’ offense, and because the Ole Miss offensive line had a horrible time trying to block Kentucky’s defensive front. That’s a bit concerning because South Carolina is likely to try to do the exact same thing - keep the ball away from Jaxson Dart and WR Tre Harris while letting their talented defensive front - highlighted by 5-star freshman Dylan Stewart - tee off on the Rebs’ questionable-at-best OLine. It’s hard to imagine that Lane Kiffin comes into this game with as few answers as he had against UK last week, but South Carolina has been a feisty, hard-to-beat team so far this season and Gamecock fans are going to be rocking as always. An Ole Miss win keeps them in the playoff race while a South Carolina win might put a focus on them that we never expected headed into this season. 

Rutgers (4-0) @ Nebraska (4-1): NEB -6.5, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 4:00 pm ET FS1

Ahhh yes, the game we always expect to be awesome - Rutgers vs Nebraska. But this year, we think it actually will be! Rutgers is undefeated with wins against a decent Virginia Tech team and the 2023 national runners-up, Washington. They’re led by a shockingly good offensive line and a really competitive defense, which sounds a lot like Nebraska, to be honest. We don’t expect there to be a lot of points here, but frankly, this is the Big Ten at its best because it’s not that the offenses are completely horrible, it’s that these teams emphasize running the ball and devouring you on defense for 60 minutes. The winner of this game is likely to crack the AP Top 25 next week and will stay alive in a very competitive Big Ten title race. Count us in!

UCF (3-1) @ Florida (2-2): UCF -3, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 7:45 pm ET SECN

The mere fact that Florida is coming into this game as an underdog is one of the most embarrassing things I’ve seen happen to them yet. They are at home. UCF is a “little brother” program that nobody would’ve ever dreamed could actually compete with UF just a handful of years ago. Last week, UCF got absolutely f*cking drilled at home by a Colorado team that is not very good. But here we are, in what is likely a last-ditch effort game for Billy Napier to keep his job for a little longer. The Gators will have to start quickly in this game because as we’ve seen multiple times already this season, if they go down early, this team’s effort completely plummets. UCF QB (and former Arkansas QB) KJ Jefferson is far from a good passer, but his ability as a runner at about 260 pounds does not bode well for a defense that is both not very good and has a habit of quitting when things aren’t going well. This would be one of the most embarrassing losses in Florida football history, so you can be damn sure I’ll be tuned in.

#11 USC (3-1) @ Minnesota (2-3): USC -8, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET BTN

In between USC’s first bye week on September 14th and their next one on November 9th, here’s a list of the cities USC will have played in on consecutive weekends. Ann Arbor, LA, Minneapolis, LA, College Park, LA, Seattle. I hope the extra money is worth it because that time zone hopping and cross-country flights have to be brutal. As you can tell, the Trojans are heading back to the Midwest to face a Minnesota team that’s coming off a last-minute loss to Michigan. The Minnesota defense is feisty and statistically better than Michigan’s the problem is somehow their offense is even worse. They’re going to make life tricky for the Trojans three-headed monster that’s QB Miller Moss, RB Woody Marks, and WR Zachariah Branch. The problem for Minnesota is the USC defensive revival is confirmed. Trojans DC D’Anton Lynn won’t win the Broyles Award for coordinator of the year but he should just based on the variance between where they were last year and where they are currently. We keep waiting for Gopher RB Darius Taylor to pop as he showed last year before injury but that’s yet to materialize and probably won’t this week against a defense that’s actually capable of tackling and staying true to their assignments. SkiUMah will be bumping and the Trojans need to be careful not to look ahead with Penn State rolling to town next weekend.

Texas Tech (4-1) @ Arizona (3-1): ARIZ -6, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 11:00 pm ET FOX

After opening the season with an OT victory over Abilene Christian and a non-competitive loss to Wazzu, we completely wrote off Texas Tech as fraudulent. We’re happy to provide bulletin board material to any team that wants to utilize it but since then Texas Tech has been on a rampage winning their last three. North Texas, Arizona State, and Cincinnati are nothing to write home about but credit the Red Raiders for figuring out that RB Tahj Brooks is one of the best in the nation. He missed the Wazzu game with injury but in the other four, he’s gone for over 100 yards in each and is averaging over 5 yards/carry and leading the nation in attempts per game. Freshman phenom WR Micah Hudson has been a nonfactor all year but we’re patiently waiting around for his breakout so we can say we told you so. 

Arizona went into Rice-Eccles Stadium at night and beat a Cam Rising-less Ute squad 23-10 last weekend. Before the loss, the Utes had won 14 straight at home and were 26-2 over the last five years. Cam Rising or not, that was an impressive win for the Wildcats and first-year head coach Brent Brennan. As is and will be the case all year, this offense will go as far as QB Noah Fifita and WR Tet McMillan will take it. McMillan was kept in check against Utah but WR Keyan Burnett and a stable of RBs picked up the slack which was a surprising and important development. It’s a late kickoff in Tucson but a worthwhile one to stay up for. 

Bar Beatdowns

This group of games is called Bar Beatdowns because if you find yourself at a local bar this weekend one of these games will likely be on. That’s because all of these games involve a top-15 ranked playoff contender who’s favored by 2+ touchdowns. We expect them to romp but on the off chance they don’t we want to keep you abreast of the storylines to follow and arm you with nerdy facts to bore your friend group and significant other with.

Michigan State (3-2) @ #6 Oregon (4-0): ORE -24, O/U 52.5 - Friday 9:00 pm ET FOX

Reasons to watch: This is a tuneup for the Ducks who host Ohio State next week in what has Game of the Year potential. The Ducks need to sort out their offensive line and Michigan State should serve as a good barometer as they’re 12th in the nation in sacks but don’t expect much out of them offensively. Wonderboy QB Aidan Chiles was benched against Boston College and struggled mightily against the Buckeyes last week.  

UCLA (1-3) @ #7 Penn State (4-0): PSU -28, O/U 46.5 - Saturday noon ET FOX

Reasons to watch: While it’s not the famed White Out Game in Happy Valley which will come later in the season against Washington, this is the Stripe Out Game which is a spectacular site and environment. Penn State has matchups with USC and Ohio State left on the docket and this will serve as another data point if we should take their offensive revival seriously or cast them aside as a fraud for the 30th year in a row. 

Iowa (3-1) @ #3 Ohio State (4-0): OSU -20.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

Reasons to watch: The SEC quartet of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas are rightfully getting all the attention given the high-profile games they’ve played. I don’t think we need to remind you to remember Ohio State but we might just have to. They aced their first test last weekend by smacking Michigan State around and now host Iowa which at least has a defense. The Bucks travel to Eugene next week so a convincing win here would put the Ducks on high alert before that blockbuster.

#1 Alabama (4-0) @ Vanderbilt (2-2): ALA -23, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 4:15 pm ET SECN

Reasons to watch: While we won’t go as far as to say these are the two “best” quarterbacks in the SEC, Jalen Milroe and Diego Pavia are certainly the most “electric.” Bama is obviously coming off of a massive, emotionally draining win against Georgia while Vandy is coming off of a bye week after nearly beating Missouri two weeks ago. Do we think Vandy could win this game? Not at all, but do I think Pavia could do something incredible to make it a one-possession game before halftime? I’m not ruling that out. This could be fun for a half.

#15 Clemson (3-1) @ Florida State (1-4): CLEM -14.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Reasons to watch: Earlier this week, Noles head coach Mike Norvell announced QB DJ Uiagalelei would miss this game with an injury, and possibly more time after this. Vegas responded to the news by not moving the line in the slightest which shows you the confidence they had in DJU who now turns the reins over to Brock Glenn. This game is at night in Tallahassee which is always a cool environment so long as the FSU faithful haven’t succumbed to the Visit Dubai commercials. Clemson won’t get their crack at former QB DJU but they do get to showcase their new offense against one of the worst defenses in college football. 

#4 Tennessee (4-0) @ Arkansas (3-2): TENN -13.5, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC

Reasons to watch: The Arkansas defense is solid but certainly not great, and we haven’t yet seen Nico and the Tennessee offense really try to explode against a non-FCS/G5 team. These two teams have played some classic games before, and the Arkansas crowd is heavily underrated when the Hogs are playing at night against a good team. It’ll be a great atmosphere and another test to see if Tennessee can keep looking like a national championship contender.

Trivia Question

Cal is hosting its first-ever College GameDay this weekend. Who are the other five Power 4 schools that have never hosted? The answer is at the end of the newsletter.

Tate’s Great Picks (22-19)

Texas State (2-2) @ Troy (1-4): Texas State -13.5, O/U 57 - Thursday 7:00 pm ET ESPNU

Pick Texas State -13.5: Despite a couple of tough losses, Texas State remains one of the best teams in the Sun Belt while Troy, despite being the two-time defending Sun Belt Champion, is… not. The Bobcats will be well-rested after a bye week while Troy keeps getting beat up and punished week after week. Bobcats win with ease.

#12 Ole Miss (4-1) @ South Carolina (3-1): MISS -9, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

Pick Ole Miss -9: Yes, I am a bit concerned about Ole Miss’ offensive line here against a good South Carolina pass rush, but given a week of reviewing and game planning off of the Kentucky film where the same thing happened, I think Lane will have some answers ready even if his OL is struggling. Ole Miss bounces back here and the Rebs expose Sellers as a passer.

#4 Tennessee (4-0) @ Arkansas (3-2): TENN -13.5, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC

Pick Tennessee -13.5: I think Arkansas has a chance to compete with Tennessee for a chunk of this game, but eventually, Tennessee’s tempo will wear the Razorbacks’ lack of depth on defense now and the Vols will pull away late - if they haven’t pulled away already. Love that this line has stayed below -14.

#9 Missouri (4-0) @ #25 Texas A&M (4-1): TAMU -2, O/U 48.5 - Saturday noon ET ABC

Pick Missouri +2: As I mentioned above, there are very game script-dependent ways that A&M can beat quality SEC teams this year due to their lack of explosiveness on offense, and I don’t see them being able to pull that out in this one. Mizzou finally hits a few big plays and wins 27-21.

#15 Clemson (3-1) @ Florida State (1-4): CLEM -14.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Clemson -14.5: No, I do not care that -14.5 is one of the worst numbers that you could possibly bet on. FSU is absolutely dreadful, is very much on quit watch, and will be breaking in a new quarterback. Clemson is rolling through teams right now. I’m hammering this, it won’t be close.

#8 Miami (5-0) @ Cal (3-1): MIA -10, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 10:30 pm ET ESPN

Pick Miami -10: Cal offense bad. Miami offense good.

OnlyRans (13-23)

Syracuse (3-1) @ #25 UNLV (4-0): UNLV -7, O/U 58.5 - Friday 9:00 pm ET FS1

Pick Syracuse +7: I’m all in on the UNLV hype train but this Orange offense is tough to slow down. With this game being in the Raiders Death Star it’s not like Cuse will have to deal with a raucous home environment either. McCord is perfectly suited for this offense that will be the best UNLV has faced this year. Syracuse’s win over Georgia Tech and loss to Stanford have a combined final margin of 5 points. I like them to cover but will be expecting and rooting for UNLV to win. 

UCLA (1-3) @ #7 Penn State (4-0): PSU -28, O/U 46.5 - Saturday noon ET FOX

Pick Game Total Over 46.5: UCLA’s offense is perfectly suited for the Big 10 in that it’s a crime against humanity and everything Mike Leach stood for. That being said, Penn State might hit this over by themselves. Aside from Hawai’i, UCLA has given up at least 34 points per game and if they match their season average of an anemic 15 ppg, this will hit with ease. Welcome to the Big 10 Bruins!

#4 Tennessee (4-0) @ Arkansas (3-2): TENN -13.5, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET ABC

Pick Tennessee -13.5: I’m rarely one to give lock of the week advice (have you seen my record) but what the hell is this line? Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the nation and should have no problem handling Razorback QB Taylen Green who’s as erratic as Boris Johnson. The fact this snuck below 14 points makes it all the more enticing. Tennessee is coming off a bye and doesn’t have a look-ahead spot with Florida coming to Rocky Top next week. 

#15 Clemson (3-1) @ Florida State (1-4): CLEM -14.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Pick Clemson -14.5: Dang nabbit Dabo! I’m finally believing in you and whatever PEDs you’ve given Cade Klubnik. Florida State just surrendered 42 points to SMU which is coincidentally the same amount Clemson is averaging on the year and that includes the 3 points they scored against Georgia. The Noles have one of the worst offenses in CFB and now have to face Clemson. Good luck with that. Don’t make me regret this Dabo. 

SMU (4-1) @ #22 Louisville (3-1): LOU -7, O/U 56.5 - Saturday noon ET ESPN

Pick SMU +7: Louisville’s offense is explosive but QB Tyler Shough is loose with the ball as evidenced by the fumble and two picks last week. Enter SMU who has forced 7 fumbles on the year and is second in the nation with 9 picks. I think this will be a shootout that SMU has the horses to keep up with. Pun was 100% intended there. 

Navy (4-0) @ Air Force (1-3): NAVY -10, O/U 35.5 - Saturday noon ET CBS/Paramount+

Pick Navy -10: Picking games with two teams that run the triple option scares me a bit but I’m pretty confident that Air Force is atrocious and Navy is excellent. Air Force’s only win is against FCS Merrimack and have shown little ability to run the ball consistently which is less than ideal when your entire offense is predicated on it. They’re 3rd in the nation in attempts/game but a measly 57th in yards/game. Navy is right where you’d expect them to be (along with Army) amongst the national leaders in rushing statistics and has an impressive beatdown of Memphis on their resume. The last statistical point I’ll make: Navy is averaging 46 ppg while Air Force is almost DFL with 12.5. Navy cruises here. 

#8 Miami (5-0) @ Cal (3-1): MIA -10, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 10:30 pm ET ESPN

Pick Miami -10: Disclaimer: I was wrong last week in picking Miami to cover the hefty spread against Virginia Tech but a putrid performance does not dissuade my opinion of Miami. Cal lost to Florida State and still cannot score to save its life. Never underestimate Mario’s ability to completely choke under pressure but Miami is too talented and these lights are too bright for Cal. Miami struggled getting to Drones last week but the Hokies have an above-average OL and Mendoza is a statue in the pocket. I’d love to be wrong here but I see Miami pulling away comfortably at the end. 

#10 Michigan (4-1) @ Washington (3-2): WASH -2.5, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET NBC

Pick Michigan +2.5 and Game Total Under 41.5: Washington’s biggest advantage is their ability to defend the pass which is convenient for Michigan since they’re unable and allergic to doing so. Washington’s rush defense is pretty horrid and Michigan has 3 different guys who can burn them on any given play. On the flip side, Michigan’s secondary has been surprisingly disconcerting but they’ve also had to face Quinn Ewers and Miller Moss. Both of these teams will want to possess the ball and rely on their defense to yuck the game up. The winning team won’t have more than 21 points.  

#9 Missouri (4-0) @ #25 Texas A&M (4-1): TAMU -2, O/U 48.5 - Saturday noon ET ABC

Pick Mizzou +2: Last but not least I’m picking another road dog to cover which I have unknowingly done for every bet until writing this so do with that what you will. Missouri’s offense has been an enigma and Texas A&M’s defense will be the best they’ve seen by a wide margin. Figuring out offensive cohesiveness on the fly at Kyle Field is less than ideal but they are coming off a bye week. I’m trusting Mizzou has and/or will figure out their slow start and am willing to fall on that sword if not.

Upset Call of the Week

The rules for this section are simple. We’re both going to pick a double-digit underdog to pull off the upset outright. This does not count for or against our betting totals above (not that it’d matter for Rand) but it’s simply for bragging rights.

Rand: Baylor (+11.5) vs #16 Iowa State

Tate: Purdue (+14) vs Wisconsin

Wake Forest & Georgia

Wake Forest (1-3) @ NC State (3-2): NCST -4.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday noon ET The CW

The Wake-State rivalry has been one of the most chaotic, entertaining, and heartbreaking rivalries for both fanbases since Doeren and Clawson got to town in the last decade. Both sides have been blown to smithereens as the undisputedly worse team, both have pulled monumental upsets, and there have been big-time clashes with ACC Championship appearances on the line. I chronicled the pain & suffering State fans have endured at the hands of Wake Forest in last year’s Wake-State preview. This time, however, we are in uncharted territory as both teams are underperforming shipwrecks. 

NC State is 3-2 on the year but their season has been tumultuous, disappointing, and infuriating. If I clipped that last sentence and you read it out of context you could attribute it to any NC State season this century which is a fact I love repeating. In the three games since taking over for Grayson McCall, QB CJ Bailey has yet to register more than 200 total yards on offense. Since a Week 1 outburst of 9 catches, 121 yards, and 3 touchdowns against Western Carolina, star WR KC Concepcion has 22 catches for 122 yards and 1 touchdown combined. Outside of their tight end, no other receiver has racked up more than 50 yards in a game this year. Running the ball hasn’t been much better either as they’re averaging less than 4 yards/carry and 127 rushing yards/game both of which rank in the bottom quarter in the ACC. If you thought that was bad, just wait for the rankings of where State ranks nationally in defense. Scoring defense is 120th, rush defense is 90th, and pass defense is 92nd. This is fun so I’m going to keep going. They’re allowing opponents to convert on 41% of their third down tries (96th), they’ve given up 74 plays of 10+ yards or more (118th), 24 plays of 20+ yards (104th), and 16 plays of 30+ yards (127th).

I don’t mean to rag on State (yes I do) but I’m just stating facts here. Wake’s aren’t much better and have a worse record against worse competition. Advanced analytics does not correlate to wins (clearly) but per PFF QB Hank Bachmeier is the 4th highest-graded QB on the year only behind a bunch of dweebs like Jaxson Dart, Cam Ward, and Shedeur Sanders. Having a more consistent running attack would be nice but I’m nitpicking and beating around the bush. This defense needs to step up. One more stop each in the Louisiana and Virginia games and we’re sitting at 3-1 and the tenor of the season is completely changed. Those are the margins you deal with week in and week out in college football but especially in the ACC where every team is just decent enough to not be complete shit and just bad enough to not be a consistent winner. It’s like being in NBA purgatory where you’re consistently drafting in the teens but can’t get over the hump or trade your players to completely tank. Or you could be the Hornets and just miss on every draft pick in franchise history - hello Marvin Williams. Holy hell what a tangent. Am I compensating, dodging, and avoiding my pain? 100%. Go Deacs. Let’s get a stop or maybe even two (!!) and proceed to kick the shit out of State. 

Auburn (2-3) @ #5 Georgia (3-1): UGA -24, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ABC

Let’s bounce this thing back, shall we? It’s been a dreadful week for Dawgs fans after losing to Alabama in frustrating and heartbreaking fashion again, but a few days of reflections have us all remembering that we’re still one of the best teams in the country, we’re still right in the middle of the SEC and national title race, and that we looked damn good in the second half of that game.

I don’t need to break down what I want to see from the Dawgs in this game, because we all want the exact same things. The offense needs to finally show that they’re capable of coming out with energy and scoring points in the first half of a football game. We saw what we are capable of against really good teams in the second halves of the Clemson and Alabama games, but we’re holding ourselves back by looking so lethargic and lifeless early in games. We’ve got to come out ready to play so we can actually look like one of the best teams in the country for sixty full minutes. The fanbase needs it. The way that both the Kentucky and Alabama games went also did not allow us to play more guys, because we had to scrap together drives just to have chances to win all game with our starters. I’d love to see more of Branson Robinson and Nate Frazier at running back and more of London Humphries and Anthony Evans at wideout, because we very well may need those guys down the stretch of this season as they’re all big play threats any time they’re on the field. 

Defensively, despite the first half against the Tide, I remain very confident in this unit. But Auburn has done a good job of moving the ball this season - reminder that Auburn freshman receiver Cam Coleman is every bit as talented as OSU’s Jeremiah Smith and Alabama’s Ryan Williams - they just keep shooting themselves in the foot by having their quarterbacks throw the worst interceptions you’ve ever seen. Can we take advantage of that? I’d like to see it. Hugh Freeze surprised us last year by game-planning a Payton Thorne-led rushing attack for the first time all season, but I’m confident we’ll be ready now that we have last year’s game film and because we just played Jalen f***ing Milroe. I’m expecting a statement performance from the defense.

All in all, this is a game everyone is expecting the Dawgs to dominate. But we’re no longer in a position where anything less than domination can be written off as “ehhh, we were just a little sleepy, we’ll start looking good soon.” We already have a loss and we have to travel to #2 Texas in three weeks. We need to see the domination now. Hunker the f*ck down, Dawgs.

Where In The World Are We?

Tate: It’s Auburn at Georgia. This has been my favorite game of the season every year since I can remember watching UGA football, even if Auburn and the SEC decided to ruin over 100 consecutive years of playing in November so they wouldn’t have to play Georgia and Bama within three weeks of each other. Auburn hasn’t won in Athens since the very flukey 1-point loss the Dawgs took in 2005. This is about defending our homeland against agents of chaos, anarchists who’d have us all perish if we let them gain control. This is personal. You know where I’ll be.

Rand: On Friday night I will be in Chapel Hill with my parents visiting my sister at UNC. Saturday morning I will be escaping Shawshank Redemption style for Raleigh and attending the Wake-NC State game. Deacs by a million baby. 

Trivia answer: Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Virginia. Rand’s note: there’s a massive asterisk on Wake after they hosted College GameDay in 2020 during Covid but the set was on the field and no fans were in attendance so ESPN owes us a real one. I’m definitely not bitter about it…

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.