Week 11 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. In this edition, we’re talking about a guy named Boopie, the proper way to burn your house down, life lessons learned in Europe, and why the outcome of a particular game Friday night will solve whose newsletter this really is. Without further ado, let’s get to it!

But First, Basketball

Remember on Monday when we said this newsletter is for football only, but we will include some basketball content on our website and simply alert you through the newsletter? Well, due to foreseen circumstances (we’ve known about this game for months) we have to make an exception because Wake Forest travels to Athens to face the Dawgs on the hardwood Friday night. What the hell else are us two writing a Wake/Georgia newsletter for if we can’t take some time to write about a Deacs/Dawgs matchup?

Georgia comes into this game 0-1 after losing their opening game to a very experienced and good Oregon team by 11 on Monday night. The Hoop Dawgs have once again built a roster that is better than the previous year’s team, but as is the world of college hoops nowadays, teams built largely out of the transfer portal tend to take some time to gel and play fluidly together. The bright spot of the Dawgs opening game against the Ducks was a pair of freshmen - Silas Demary Jr., who started at point guard, tallied 8 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists, and looked very in command of the offense for a freshman playing in his first college game, and Blue Cain, a legendary-looking man with a legendary name, who looked incredibly comfortable pulling up from deep and taking the ball to the bucket, finishing with 12 points. As mentioned, it may take some time for this team to gel together, especially considering that it is relying on some younger guys to grow up quickly, but things are looking up for Georgia basketball for the first time in ages. The Dawgs signed three top-100 players in the previous recruiting class (including Cain and Demary) for only the third time in school history, UGA has already signed 5-star Asa Newell for next year’s 2024 class with a very good chance of landing fellow 5-star Derrion Reid as well, and the Dawgs have already jumped out to the 2025 class with a commitment from 4-star Jacob Wilkins - yes, Dominique’s son. Losing the opening game against Oregon was disappointing to be sure, but the Hoop Dawgs have a great opportunity to continue to build towards a great future against a very solid Wake team on Friday night.

The Deacs are 1-0 on the season and not to be dramatic or anything, but we’re winning the national championship. Akin to Georgia, there are a lot of new faces on this squad, so let’s meet the team.

Transfer PG Hunter Sallis from Gonzaga is a former top-10 recruit and it would not be surprising if he continues the Alondes ‘Butter Boy Man-Man’ Williams (I did not make up that nickname) and Tyree Appleby blueprint of transferring to Wake as an underutilized PG, win ACC Player of the Year, go pro. Seriously, I watched this guy play on Monday night and he’s absurd. He will make All-ACC at a minimum. The problem is his running mate, guard Cam Hildreth, has looked better than him thus far. Take it for what it’s worth but he was the leading scorer in the exhibition win against #24 Alabama and the Monday win over Elon. I haven’t shot a basketball in 10 years, but I do know this guy is probably infuriating to play against. This pale, redhead from the UK is cooking blokes up and down the court. He’s the stereotypical scrappy guy who can shoot and dives on every loose ball, but what separates him is his strength and ability to get into the lane and finish through contact or pull up for a midrange. 6’10 forward Andrew Carr returns to the team and looks like he bulked up over the summer. He’s one of the most important players on the team with his rebounding and three-point shooting ability. Kevin ‘Boopie’ Miller is another guard transfer from Central Michigan, and I also did not make up that nickname. He is crafty with the ball and can score at all three levels. 7’1 center Matthew Marsh is back again after almost breaking the NCAA record for field goal percentage. Last year, he exclusively scored on alley-oops and shot close to 90%. To close out the main players who can play right now, there’s freshman PG Parker Friedrichsen who shoots threes like he’s Steph Curry. A 4-star recruit out of Oklahoma, he was probably the best shooter in the class of 2023.

Then there are the two very important players who cannot play at the moment. 7’1 C Efton Reid is another former 5-star transfer from Gonzaga who is currently ineligible because he got his two-time transfer waiver denied by the NCAA. Wake is currently appealing and remains to be seen if he will play this year. This is a similar situation to the UNC Tez Walker situation and my stance is everyone should play. I don’t care that Tez Walker, Efton Reid, or the litany of other transfers around the country are on their third school. The product is better when these guys are playing and not hampered by arbitrary and arcane rules. What I don’t recommend (yet) is for Wake to start their own bitch and moan campaign against the NCAA which led to UNC fans issuing death threats against council members even though it worked. Lastly, there’s forward Damari Monsanto who is recovering from a torn patella tendon and should be back in December. There aren’t adequate words to describe how lethal this dude is from three. He has seemingly unlimited range and he’s never met a shot he didn’t like. It’s cliche but true. I’ve watched a lot of ACC basketball in my day, and I haven’t seen a shooter like him since JJ Reddick at Duke and that’s not an exaggeration. Wake scheduled a tough non-conference schedule to rack up wins that will look good on their resume in March. We smacked Georgia last year in Winston and there’s no reason we can’t do it again. Deacs by a million. Alright, enough basketball let’s talk football.

6 Week 11 Games to Watch

#3 Michigan (9-0) @ #10 Penn State (8-1): Mich -4.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

It is Week 11 of the college football season and it’s about time Michigan decided to join in on the fun of playing a meaningful game. The Michigan sign-stealing saga has a new development every hour and we don’t have the time or space to detail it all here so we will stick with actual football. Michigan has looked understandably incredible so far given their Charmin schedule, but everyone will be looking to see how they play and respond to a top-10 opponent. RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards have combined for 18 TDs on the year, while JJ McCarthy is doing his best Trevor Lawrence impression by putting up Heisman-worthy numbers through 3 quarters before hitting the bench. Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson will be tasked with stretching the field against Penn State’s vaunted secondary. Michigan’s offense looks incredible, but their defense is even better. Through 9 games, Michigan’s defense has not faced a goal-to-go situation. In other words, opposing offenses have not hiked the ball inside Michigan’s 10-yard line the entire season. The defense is peppered with future NFL players, they’re giving up 6.7 ppg, and Rand wouldn’t argue if you compared them to the 2010 Bama defense. Tate would because of the 2021 Georgia defense blah blah but the point is, this defense is elite.

On the other side, Penn State gets its millionth and one chance to prove they’re in the same class as Michigan and Ohio State. In their previous million tries, they’ve failed spectacularly. Every single time Penn State faces a top-10 Michigan or Ohio State we hear the same stuff. It’ll be different this time, they’ve got all the talent in the world, they finally have a quarterback, they’re a sleeper playoff team, James Franklin will finally break through, yada, yada, yada. As we saw last month, Penn State ran into Ohio State at the Horseshoe, lost 20-12, and set offense back 40 years in the process. This time they get a top-5 opponent in Beaver Stadium, but we’ve seen this story before. It’s put up or shut up time for the Nittany Lions…again.

#8 Alabama (8-1) @ Kentucky (6-3): Bama -10.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

We aren’t sure if there is a single person on planet Earth outside the greater Lexington area who believes Kentucky is going to win this one, but this game is still absolutely worth watching. Alabama has turned itself into a very serious national title contender less than two months after many began predicting the official death of the Bama football dynasty. Say what you will about Kentucky, but the Wildcats are one of the best-coached teams in the country and tend to provide a serious test to teams that are much “better” than they are. The Tide will almost certainly be facing UGA in the SEC Championship Game in less than a month, and this Kentucky defense will be the closest thing schematically to Georgia that Bama will face before then. While Jalen Milroe has looked great over the past few weeks, it will be extremely interesting to see if Kentucky can fit runs and edge-contain their way to slowing him down on the ground, because as good as Milroe has looked, his ability to beat you through the air consistently is still a massive question mark for this Alabama offense. This one could tell us a lot about what this Alabama team truly is.

#18 Utah (7-2) @ #5 Washington (9-0): Wash -8.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

Washington returns to the Pacific Northwest and draws the unenviable task of having to defeat Utah. The Utes are season-killers and would love to add Washington to their hit list after ruining Oregon and USC’s playoff hopes in previous years. Utes QB Bryson Barnes, whose side hustle is pig farming, has looked great in recent weeks against mediocre competition. It’s a welcome development for a previously non-existent offense, but defense is where the Utes butter its bread. Since Washington’s dramatic victory over Oregon, they’ve looked relatively pedestrian beating Arizona State by 8, Stanford by 11, and USC by 10. Their offense has come back down to earth, and their defense has been shaky all season. They have the talent, but they need to do what Oregon did to the Utes and win in convincing fashion here.

#9 Ole Miss (8-1) @ #2 Georgia (9-0): Georgia -10.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

As always, we will have a preview of the UGA game below, but we felt a little silly not including a top-10 SEC matchup in the “Games to Watch” section. On the Ole Miss side of things, while it may not seem like it, the Rebs still have a realistic chance to make the College Football Playoff, even if that chance includes beating the best team in the country on the road and some other top contenders taking losses over the next few weeks. Ole Miss is really good and still has a ton to play for, and obviously, Georgia is in the same boat. As mentioned, more on this one below.

#13 Tennessee (7-2) @ #14 Missouri (7-2): Tenn -1.0, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

If you’re one of those weird losers hoping for Georgia to lose and not win their third consecutive national championship, then this one may interest you. The SEC East race is technically not over yet. If Ole Miss were to pull off the upset over Georgia in Athens this Saturday and Tennessee were to beat Missouri, the SEC East Championship would take place next week in Knoxville between the Dawgs and the Vols. It’s an interesting scenario, but in reality, we all know that Georgia is never losing ever again.

But even a race for 2nd in the final iteration of the SEC East (reminder that the SEC is abandoning the division format starting next year) is very interesting, particularly in what it means for both programs moving forward. The Vols have received a ton of hype as one of the up-and-coming programs in the country over the past couple of seasons, while Eli Drinkwitz has slowly but surely turned Mizzou into one of the most physical, difficult-to-beat teams in the SEC. WR Luther Burden is questionable for Missouri and while his potential absence would hurt, the Missouri defense does a great job after getting quarterbacks, and UT QB Joe Milton is, uh, not great when pressured. A game like this will certainly be more interesting when the 12-team playoff format begins next season, but this should still be an intense, well-played football game between two good teams, and it’s one of the last chances we have to watch the SEC on CBS.

USC (7-3) @ #6 Oregon (8-1): Oregon -15, O/U 73.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET FOX

Even Oprah will be impressed with how many points the USC defense will be giving away to Oregon on Saturday night. Fresh off allowing 572 yards, 52 points, and almost 200 rushing yards before contact to Washington, USC finally fired DC Alex Grinch who’s likely back in his cave at Mount Crumpit. This move was long overdue and a potential sign of giving a damn from Lincoln Riley, this still doesn’t solve the fact that this defense is an absolute abomination. They still have Caleb Williams which gives them a puncher's chance. Oregon can’t lose again if it wants to stay alive in the Pac-12 and playoff race, and against this defense, we expect them to live for another week. The Duck is going to be doing a lot of push-ups in Autzen on Saturday.

4 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

#7 Texas (8-2) @ TCU (4-5): Texas -10.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Like every other team in the Big 12, TCU would like nothing more than to hand Texas a big ole L in their final matchup before the Longhorns head to the SEC, but this one might be uniquely bitter. For many years, Texas was the largest voice in the Big 12 advocating against TCU’s entrance to the conference until the Horned Frogs finally forced their way in 2012. The Frogs immediately proved Texas’ fears right, as TCU has won 9 of the 12 matchups these teams have faced as conference foes, including a true classic last year in Austin which saw TCU win 17-10. Texas is fighting for a playoff spot but is currently doing so without starting QB Quinn Ewers, and the team certainly looks vulnerable in his absence. TCU’s crowd is going to be rocking, this is one of the most elite uniform matchups in all of college football, and this is the last time you’ll be able to watch this matchup for the foreseeable future. Tune in.

Miami (6-3) @ #4 Florida State (9-0): FSU -14.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Last year’s 45-3 loss to Florida State was one of the lowest points in recent Miami history. Well, there’s also the loss to Middle Tennessee State last year, the infamous brawl with FIU in 2006, and the Ponzi scheme booster Nevin Shapiro who hosted parties on his yacht with prostitutes and football recruits. But other than that, last year's beatdown by FSU was a dark moment for the Canes. Will they turn it around against the best FSU team in a decade? Probably not given their horrific offensive performance last week (more on that later) but it’s a classic rivalry game between two fanbases that despise each other that’s always worth a watch.

Duke (6-3) @ UNC (7-2): UNC -14.5, O/U 50.5 - Friday 8:00pm ET ACCN

A few weeks ago, this game had the potential to decide who would meet Florida State in the ACC Championship. Now, it’s a matchup between two good teams who didn’t learn from Icarus and flew too close to the sun. Duke is likely to rely on third-string QB Grayson Loftis again with Riley Leonard now out for an extended period of time. This defense is still one of the best in the nation but has its work cut out for it with UNC’s Drake Maye, Tez Walker, and Omarion Hampton. UNC’s defense is another story though. After starting the season looking like the unit that could finally complement the offense and lead them to Charlotte, they collapsed like a lung in their two losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia. This rivalry matchup has produced some great games in recent years and we’re hoping for another one here even if both fanbases have already turned their attention to the basketball season.

Wyoming (6-3) @ UNLV (7-2): UNLV -4.0, O/U 51.5 - Friday 10:45pm ET FS1

We’re putting this one on here because these are two of our favorite programs of the 2023 season, this matchup has very real consequences in the Mountain West Conference title race, and it’s taking place at 10:45 on a Friday night. Whether you’re at a bar getting drunk with your friends (cool) or you’re sitting on your couch at home (lame… but relatable), we recommend tuning in to watch these two good football teams duke it out in Vegas. Late-night psychopath games are what make college football, college football.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (9-0): Well, well, well. If it isn’t the game I have been waiting on for over a decade. Ole Miss, my 2nd favorite SEC team, comes to Athens as the #9 team in the country to take on the Dawgs on ESPN, Between the Hedges, at night. It truly, truly does not get any better. Ole Miss comes into this game 8-1 following a hard-fought victory over consistently underachieving and notoriously weird Texas A&M last Saturday, and if you’ve gotten accustomed to the Dawgs cruising to victories over the past three years, you might need to buckle up. This Ole Miss team is dangerous, particularly offensively. Led by QB Jaxson Dart (2,467 yards 16 TD’s passing, 347 yards and 7 TD’s rushing), RB Quinshon Judkins (793 yards, 12 TD’s), and WR Tre Harris (749 yards, 7 TD’s), the Rebs are third in the SEC in both yards per game and points per game. Dart’s ability as a runner is something that the Georgia defense has struggled with at times this year, so it will be imperative for the Dawgs to keep their edges contained and keep Dart himself contained to the pocket when things break down. Much like last week against Missouri, the most interesting matchup will likely be Ole Miss’ elite wide receivers vs Georgia’s elite secondary. It will be interesting to see how the defensive staff deploys Kamari Lassiter after using him all over the field for the first time in his career last week. If the Dawgs come out with a similar game plan, expect RS Freshman Julio Humphrey to be matched up one-on-one in big-time situations against a variety of Ole Miss receivers. Lane Kiffin is as good as anyone in the sport of football at finding favorable matchups for his playmakers and scheming them open, so we’ll need to have tremendous discipline in the secondary and hopefully get more production from our pass-rushing unit than we did last week, against an offensive line that is not as good as Missouri’s.

But what this game will likely come down to is Ole Miss’ ability - or inability - to stop Georgia’s offense. Georgia’s offense is #2 in the SEC in both yards and points per game, and Carson Beck is yet to face an opponent that has been able to slow him and his receivers down much at all. Ole Miss brings in a solid front 7, but their secondary leaves a lot to be desired and the Rebs often find themselves in positions where they are having to devote an extra man in the defensive backfield to protect against big passing plays. This will likely occur again on Saturday, and will likely force Carson Beck to make accurate and on-time intermediate throws - which is exactly where Beck shines. Expect another 250+ yard performance from our alien-resembling QB.

I could maybe break this game down some more, but honestly, I am just too excited to get to Athens and experience this day, experience a top-10 showdown at night in Athens, to see our light show before the 4th quarter. I am so excited to see the Rebs come play the Dawgs. It’s Ole Miss vs Georgia Between the Hedges. Enjoy it, because it doesn’t get any better than this.

Wake Forest (4-5): The Deacs got a long break to get healthy and hopefully figured out how not to commit senseless and undisciplined penalties after their brutal, inexcusable, self-inflicted loss to Duke last Thursday night. Now they get NC State (6-3) who’s riding high after beating Clemson and Miami in consecutive weeks at home thanks in large part to their defense. State is a 2.5-point favorite, the O/U is set at 44, and it kicks off at 2pm on the CW.

If you remember, NC State brought in old Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong but was benched after five games in favor of MJ Morris. On Tuesday, Morris announced he would not be playing the remainder of the season and taking a redshirt. This is the second State offensive starter - the first being RB Jordan Houston - to essentially quit the team in the middle of the season. Inspiring! On the season Armstrong is completing less than 60% of his passes and has 5 TDs to 6 INTs. Impressive! However, akin to Kyron Drones at Virginia Tech, he is a very capable and powerful runner.

The Pack rank behind the Deacs in almost every major statistical offensive category which goes to show how inept their offense has been this season. As mentioned, they do their best Iowa impression and lean on their defense to win them ball games, which has worked out pretty well. QB MJ Morris didn’t provide the offensive spark he theoretically could, but it didn’t matter in their previous two wins. They forced four turnovers, held Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke to 173 yards passing, were outgained, and still won 20-6 last week. The week before against Clemson, they forced two turnovers including a pick-six, completed a staggering 11 passes of their own, were outgained by 160+ yards, and still won. It’s impressive this team has willed its way to six wins and is a testament to head coach Dave Doeren who should get a lifetime contract because…

Ask any State fan which team has ruined more State seasons in the past decade and the answer will be Wake Forest without hesitation. In previous newsletters, I’ve chronicled painful games of suffering and ineptitude by Wake at the hands of Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh to name a few. Let’s flip the script on that trend and this season because I need it. It’s time for a history lesson:

2017: State entered this game ranked #19 in the country at 7-3 and was looking to march closer to their first 10-win season since 2002 since they had Philip Rivers at QB (this will be a trend). Led by QB Ryan Finley, RBs Jaylen Samuels and current Buffalo Bill Nyheim Hines, WRs Kelvin Harmon, Emeka Emezie, current Raider Jakobi Meyers, DE and future #5 pick Bradley Chubb, this team was loaded. Wake was a respectable 6-4 behind QB John Wolford but wasn’t consistent enough to be a real ACC threat yet. State had won the previous three meetings and Wake hadn’t beaten a ranked team in the regular season under Clawson coming in.

State finished the game with 10 more first downs, outgained the Deacs 502-334, and had a 22-minute advantage in time of possession which is unfathomable. However, Wake won the turnover battle 3-1, and let’s talk about one in particular. With under two minutes left, down 24-30, State was at Wake’s 11. Finley completed a pass to Emezie who was darting for the endzone until Wake LB Demetrius Kemp knocked the ball out of his hands at the goal line and recovered it in the endzone. To this day, State fans claim there is some conspiracy with ACC refs and how Wake is too poor to afford goal line cameras or something. Yes, it was a very close call, but maybe don’t put the game in the refs' hands after dominating Wake for 58 minutes. Tough loss. Sad!

Personal anecdote: I watched this game in Lisbon, Portugal during study abroad and since it was a night game in the US, I was able to watch the entire fourth quarter. We went out and got back around 3am and I think we had a flight around 7am the next day. After the fumble, I woke up my sleeping roommate, Sam Choice, who I thought would be ecstatic with the exciting result, exhilarating finish, and subsequent screaming but turns out he did not which was very disappointing. I guess Choice desperately needed his beauty sleep and not everyone watches Wake football at 4am, especially in Europe.

2018: The very next year, State entered the matchup ranked #14 with a 6-2 record and was once again aiming for that elusive 10-win season under Doeren. Remember all those star players I listed previously for State? Almost everyone on that team returned and this team was unquestionably better. Wake was 4-5 under freshman QB Sam Hartman and was scrapping to get bowl eligibility which is almost the exact situation Wake is in right now. Hmmmmm. Turned out that in the previous game against Syracuse, Hartman injured his knee and would be out for the season. Facing a short week with this game on a Thursday night in Raleigh, Wake was forced to give Georgia Football legend Jamie Newman his first career start.

In the fourth quarter, Wake was down 23-13 but State elected to go for it on 4th & 3 on Wake’s 39-yard line. State didn’t get it and Wake immediately marched down the field to make it 20-23 with 6 minutes left. State then milked over four minutes off the clock but was faced with another 4th & 3 but this time from Wake’s 20-yard line. State threw another incomplete on 4th down giving Wake and Newman the ball at their own 20 with no timeouts left and 1:39 on the clock. State’s vaunted defense let Wake get all the way to the State 32 before Newman threw a TD pass with TE Jack Freudenthal with 30 seconds to go. Wake would go on to win 27-23, score their road win against a ranked team in 10 years, and State would not get to 10 wins.

Personal anecdote again: I was a senior in college and went to this game with some State friends who I knew from Winston. I sat with Wake fans for most of this game and not in the student section since I was in the WF hoodie and didn’t want some State student to spit his dip on me. Before Wake’s comeback, I asked my friends where we should meet once the game was over. Turned out they left, and I had to catch an Uber home with their roommates whom I had just met earlier that day. Once Wake came back to win, I was sure they were going to leave me, and I’d have to figure out my own way home. Luckily, I sweet-talked them into letting me ride back with them but only under the stipulation I wasn’t to say a word about the game. I didn’t keep my mouth shut because I am weak. Fun car ride though.

2021: State came into this game ranked #16 at 7-2 and had an impressive win over Clemson already on their resume. QB Devin Leary & WR Emeka Emezie (yep, him again) let a dynamic offense coupled with a stout defense and LB Drake Thomas. Their only losses were to Mississippi State and Miami but had yet to lose in the ACC Atlantic Division. Wake entered the game ranked #12 at 8-1 but just lost an out-of-conference game to UNC the week before in one of the most painful games in my life. Sidenote: Wake and UNC scheduled each other as out-of-conference foes because they didn’t like not playing each other as often. Therefore, the winner of this matchup would almost assuredly be going to Charlotte to play in the ACC Championship.

Before the game, it was announced Wake would be without their top two cornerbacks, Gavin Holmes and Caelen Carson, and lost star WR Jaquarii Roberson early in the matchup. This ended up being one of the best games in the ACC, if not the country, that year. This game was close the entire night, and whether you point to State committing 9 more penalties, going 3-14 on 3rd down, or not being able to capitalize on three Hartman interceptions, there wasn’t a singular play or stat that defined this game. In the end, Wake came out on top 45-42 in Winston.

While the stakes aren’t as high in this year’s matchup, I can only hope I can add to this illustrious list come Sunday. Deacs by a million.

Tate’s Great Picks (19-34-1)

#3 Michigan (9-0) @ #10 Penn State (8-1): Mich -4.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Michigan -4.5: This game may be in Happy Valley, and there may be tons of distractions surrounding Michigan’s football program, but I have a feeling that Penn State’s offense may have a veeeerryyyyy bad time in this game. PSU QB Drew Allar has been solid this season, but he has no legitimate receivers to throw to, and Michigan has a way of suffocating offenses who can’t stretch them downfield. I can see Penn State hanging around for a while as they also have a very good defense, but Michigan will put this one away comfortably in the 2nd half.

#20 USC (7-3) @ #6 Oregon (8-1): Ore -15, O/U 73.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET FOX

Pick - Oregon -15: USC has legitimately the worst defense in college football, they just fired their defensive coordinator which is rarely great for team morale, and Caleb Williams was just seen crying after Southern Cal’s 3rd loss in its last 4 games. Meanwhile, Oregon still has very real playoff hopes and is currently annihilating everybody. Give me the Ducks.

#18 Utah (7-2) @ #5 Washington (9-0): Wash -8.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

Pick - Washington -8.5: I think this one could look a lot like the Oregon/Utah game did, where while Utah is still a physical, well-coached team, they simply did not have anywhere near enough offense to keep up. Washington can score on just about anybody in the country, and this Utah defense isn’t as good as they have been in years past. If Washington gets up early and forces Utah out of its offensive game plan, this game will get out of hand quickly.

#21 Arizona (6-3) @ Colorado (4-5): Zona -10.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 2:00pm ET PAC-12 Network

Pick - Arizona -10.5: Forgive me for riding with a bunch of favorites to cover this weekend, but Arizona is a wagon right now. The Wildcats have three in a row, two against ranked opponents, since losing to USC in double overtime last month. Meanwhile, in Boulder, Deion demoted his best assistant coach in OC Sean Lewis before last week’s game against Oregon State, to only put up 51 first-half yards and give up another 4 sacks and 2 more TFLs. It’s rough for the Buffs right now, and Zona is rolling. Wildcats run away with this one.

#15 Oklahoma State (7-2) @ UCF (4-5): OKST -2.5, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - OKST -2.5: Alright goodness gracious, I’m picking another favorite to cover here. Just calling it like I see it, which has never steered me wrong in betting before! Plain and simple, I’ve thought UCF’s defense has been stinky hot garbage all season, and OK State RB Ollie Gordon has been going nut nut for a month now and may end up as a Heisman finalist. This may be a trap line, but OK State has been playing extremely well and is still fighting for a conference championship. I’m riding the Cowboys here, and I might just save a horse too.

Rutgers (6-3) @ Iowa (7-2): Iowa -1.5, O/U 28.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET BTN

Pick - Game Total Under 28.5: No explanation is needed here. Betting Iowa unders is an honor, a privilege. It takes a truly noble and strong person to bet an under of 28.5. Also, if you send me a time-lapse video of you watching this game in its entirety I will Venmo you $50.

OnlyRans (45-49-1)

#20 USC (7-3) @ #6 Oregon (8-1): Ore -15, O/U 73.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET FOX

Pick - Oregon -15 & Game Total Over 73.5: We previewed it above and Tate touched on this game in his picks, so I’ll keep it short. Did you see what Oregon did to Utah’s defense? Oregon seems to be getting better each week and it’s in Autzen at night. Quack Attack.

Rutgers (6-3) @ Iowa (7-2): Iowa -1.5, O/U 28.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET BTN

Pick - Game Total Under 28.5: They say Las Vegas has something for everyone and that rings true, for me at least, after finally setting an Iowa O/U under 30 points. Again, out of precedent and because it’s a smart bet, I have to take the under here.

Old Dominion (4-5) @ Liberty (9-0): Liberty -13.5, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 1:00pm ET ESPN+

Pick - Liberty -13.5: Liberty is undefeated and locked up their CUSA championship appearance against New Mexico State if the Aggies beat Western Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Liberty is very balanced on offense behind QB Kaidon Salter and Wake transfer RB Quinton Cooley and is coming off a dominating 56-30 win over Louisiana Tech.

#21 Arizona (6-3) @ Colorado (4-5): Zona -10.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 2:00pm ET PAC-12 Network

Pick - Arizona -10.5: I agree with Tate which is making me reconsider this bet, but Colorado’s offense is in disarray after they demoted OC Sean Lewis and their defense is porous. Zona QB Noah Fifita has been a revelation and has a stable of good receivers to throw to. I’ll take the Wildcats.

North Texas (3-6) @ SMU (7-2): SMU -17.0, O/U 67.5 - Friday 9:00pm ET ESPN2

Pick - SMU -17 & Game Total Over 67.5: This game will be a good old-fashioned Texas shootout. These are the top two offenses in the AAC, with both averaging over 35 ppg, while SMU's defense gives up a mere 15 ppg to North Texas’ giving up 36.7 ppg. I expect a lot of points with the Mustangs pulling away at the end.

#15 Oklahoma State (7-2) @ UCF (4-5): OKST -2.5, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - UCF +2.5: This bet makes absolutely no sense and think OK State should be at least a touchdown favorite, but I’ve lost a lot of bets this year thinking Vegas is stupid and the line should be higher. I’m finally listening to whatever Vegas is trying to tell me here and fading Tate.

#25 Fresno State (8-1) @ San Jose State (4-5): SJSU -1, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Fresno State +1: I take back everything I said about Vegas above because this line is ludacris. SJSU is 4-5 on the year but two of those losses are to Pac 12 teams, the best MAC team Toledo, and Air Force & Boise State which are excusable. San Jose’s offense has come to life in the past three games and is averaging 31 ppg. But Fresno State has the better QB, a better coach, and I’m smarter than Vegas. Go Bulldogs.

For my moneyline upsets of the week give me Nebraska ML & UCF ML. Maryland is falling apart at the seams and under Mike Locksley they’re 3-13 in November. Give me Nebraska at home to win outright and achieve bowl eligibility for the first time since Brexit was a thing. I’m doubling down on my Tate fade with UCF and hoping Vegas knows something I don’t which is generally the case…except for the Fresno State line.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: I don’t know if there’s a worse adult activity than moving. Having to go to the DMV? Sitting next to a crying child on an airplane? Being in the Dean Dome? I’d take any of those over having to move which is what I am doing Friday morning. On the bright side, I’ll be darting back to Winston for the Wake-State game on Saturday. Go Deacs.

TS: I’ll be back in the greatest place in the world watching the best team in the country play the ninth best team in the country. I’d try to write something funny here, but this is just going to be so f*cking awesome. Go Dawgs.

Hope you have a great weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.