Crunch Time: Week 12 Preview

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Good morning and welcome back to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. "Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." We’re not going to name who, but one of the authors has gone 28 years thinking that quote came from Forrest Gump and not Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. Like Mr. Bueller or whatever his name is (I don’t know, never seen the flick), we’re trying to slow down, live in the present, and ask ourselves some ambiguous questions like: why is Pat Narduzzi one of the worst ambassadors of college football, will, nay…can, Wake Forest score an offensive touchdown, can Georgia record a sack, and is Trump in the Epstein files? Yeah, enough with the questions. We’ll get our answers to all of the above in due time. In the meantime, enjoy this Week 12 preview while Rand and Tate ponder the quality of life in Timbuktu, should Wake Forest and Georgia…you know. 

Week 12 Games to Watch

Friday night brings us a game I’m sure ESPN thought was going to be a lot better when they made TV selections over the summer. Clemson travels to #20 Louisville in what is a far cry from the Deshaun Watson-Lamar Jackson duels years ago. Louisville will once again be without star RB Isaac Brown, but they’ve found life in Keyjaun Brown who rushed for 134 yards on just 14 carries in their upset loss to Cal last week. Is this game going to be about a Clemson midseason revival, or will Louisville get back on track as they try to lock up Jeff Brohm to a long-term extension and keep fighting for an ACC Championship berth? It’s a jalapeno popper of an appetizer for the weekend - decent on paper but we don’t want too many of them. Also in this window, we’ve got Minnesota traveling to #8 Oregon in what should be a beatdown, but Oregon played with their food against Wisconsin, barely escaped Iowa last week, and has not shown the death star ability on offense that we expect out of national title contenders. 10/10 game to fall asleep to by the fire on your Friday evening.  

Saturday’s noon slate features the College GameDay game with #9 Notre Dame traveling to #22 Pittsburgh, who is suddenly a war machine after making a midseason switch to QB Mason Heintschel. How big of a game is this for Pittsburgh? Don’t ask us, ask head coach Pat Narduzzi, who said the following after being asked if this is a must-win, “It is not an ACC game. I’m glad you brought that up. It’s not an ACC game. I’d gladly get beat 103 or 110-10 in that game. They could put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that.” These comments aren’t that surprising given Pat Narduzzi is one of the most blunt coaches out there, but pretty brutal if you’re a fan of the sport (or Pitt) who’d expect your head coach to be jacked up for one of the biggest games in recent program history.  

On a second screen in the noon slate, we advise a cursory look at #24 USF heading to Navy. The Bulls and QB Byrum Brown have the inside path to a playoff bid, but there might be some service academy tomfoolery going on here if Navy QB Blake Horvath plays. If not, USF should run roughshod here, and the Bulls might hang 60. Bobby Petrino is 0-4 in his attempt to gain a single win as the Arkansas interim coach, but has a good opportunity against an LSU team that seemingly has no interest in playing the sport of football for the remainder of the year. Arizona @ Cincinnati and West Virginia @ Arizona State should be entertaining at a minimum if the Notre Dame game is a dud. Wisconsin heads to Indiana after showing a sign of life for the first time in 4 years last weekend by beating Washington, but now they get presumed buzzsaw Indiana in Bloomington. Is #2 Indiana fading after their Happy Valley escape? Probably not, but we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel here. We promise bangers are coming. 

#11 Oklahoma traveling to Tuscaloosa is the filet mignon of the afternoon slate. #2 Alabama has the offensive playmakers in WRs Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard to put the nail in the coffin for Oklahoma’s playoff chances. The question is, will the OL give Ty Simpson enough time to get the ball out? Oklahoma’s defense is outstanding and Alabama doesn’t have a run game to speak of. The Sooners punked Alabama last year in Norman, but Simpson is not Jalen Milroe. The ground chuck of the afternoon, of course, involves two ACC matchups. #19 Virginia heads to Duke in what’s an ACC Championship and playoff elimination game for both teams. Duke is coming off a loss to UConn, but controls their own destiny to Charlotte should they win out. Virginia doesn’t have a passing TD in their last 10 quarters, and that’s not likely to change with their backup QB still in after Chandler Morris isn’t likely to play after being knocked out against Wake. Further down the sewer, you can find #15 Miami hosting NC State. No clue who’s winning this one, but one thing is for certain: society will not advance with these two programs playing. 

#17 USC is still in playoff contention, but a loss to the visiting #20 Hawkeyes will knock them out completely. USC probably isn’t a legitimate playoff threat, given they head to Eugene next weekend, but their DNR order might last for one more week. Additionally, don’t be surprised if we’re talking about ECU this time next week. They’re 4-1 in conference, host Memphis, can score a ton of points, and aren’t completely out of the AAC race. Worth monitoring. 

On Saturday evening, the crème de la crème of the evening is Texas @ Georgia and you can find that preview below. Elsewhere, Florida heads to #7 Ole Miss who can lock up a playoff spot if they win out. Maybe Lane Kiffin is facing his future employer in this spot. Florida State hosts Virginia Tech, and while Mike Norvell is definitely not getting fired during the season, if he loses to Virginia Tech with an interim coach, he should start packing and send his family to the Tetons for protection. The football and television overlords have heard our pleas, our yearning, and consternation over the lack of quality late-night viewing options. This weekend, we’re presented with two great matchups. San Diego State hosts Boise State, and if you’re not on the Aztec bandwagon yet, you’re running out of time. They’re 7-2 on the season, and if they win here, they have a massive matchup against San Jose State next weekend. #12 BYU hosts TCU in Provo one week after getting smoked by Texas Tech and are out of playoff contention, but what’s the point of watching football if you’re only worried about playoff contention? What are you? A fair-weather Clemson fan? These games will be bangers, and while we’re at it, check out Louisiana Tech at Washington State and Wyoming at Fresno State. You’ll miss these Saturday nights in February, we guarantee it. 

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OnlyRans

Last Week: 5-5 // Season Record: 46-57 (45%)

The lock machine rolls on (don’t look above this line) as we’ve got a plethora of picks for you this weekend. Fade me at your own risk, peon.

#10 Notre Dame -12.5 @ #24 Pittsburgh: Do I think Pat Narduzzi is game theory-ing this matchup and taking the pressure off his team by saying he doesn’t care about the outcome? Absolutely not, I actually believe he doesn’t care, and I know he hates having a competent offense. Notre Dame rolls as they have legitimate playoff hopes on the line this weekend, and the spotlight is too bright for the Panthers. If there’s a prop bet on Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love’s rushing yardage, take the over. Pitt’s front seven is in shambles due to injuries.

#15 Louisville -2.5 v Clemson: Clemson looked like an actual football team last week against FSU, and Louisville looked horrendous in their loss to Cal. I don’t believe Clemson is that decent and Louisville is that bad. Cade Klubnik and his porous OL are not going to have a good time against Louisville’s stout defensive line. Get right game for the Cards against Clemson…never thought I’d type that.

Arizona +6.5 @ #25 Cincinnati: 7-2 Cincy came back down to Earth after getting whipped by Utah last week, but now faces a 6-3 Arizona team that has an almost identical statistical profile to them. This line is too big to comfortably take the Bearcats, as I think Arizona keeps this close thanks to their defense and one of the Big 12’s best QBs: Noah Fifita.

Arkansas +5.5 @ LSU: Has LSU quit? Do they care about facing a 2-7 Arkansas team whose interim coach Bobby Petrino is trying - and spectacularly failing - at getting the full-time gig? Is anyone going to be there for 11:45am local kick? Woo Pig give me the points.  

Tulsa +2.5 v Oregon State: What happens when a 2-8 Oregon State, coming off a home loss to the previous winless Sam Houston Bearkats, has to fly halfway across the country to face a 2-7 Tulsa team whose last win was against Mike Gundy? Apathy and an ‘upset’. Tulsa runs a funky offense, Oregon State still has the worst special teams unit this sport has ever seen, and if they haven’t quit yet, they’re about to. Enough about this game…next!

Western Kentucky -13.5 v Middle Tennessee: Ah, there we go. Conference USA! This one is pretty simple: WKU is really good and MTSU is very bad. If you need actual rationale…the Hilltoppers rank #1 in the conference in scoring offense and #4 in scoring defense, while the Blue Raiders rank #11 in both of those categories…out of 12. 

Marshall -7.5 @ Georgia State: Same thing here but this time in the Sun Belt. Georgia State is a 1-8 dumpster fire while Rand University (no affiliation) is fighting for bowl eligibility under a first-year head coach. 

#13 Utah -7.5 @ Baylor: Baylor’s Achilles heel this year has been their defense, which is one of the worst in the country. Couple that with a Utah offense that’s shockingly dynamic and explosive and you get a horrible matchup for the Bears. Utah is going to manhandle the Bears in the trenches and Baylor’s only hope is going to be launch bombs over the top of them which should be difficult against a Utah secondary that gives up the sixth-fewest passing yards/game in the nation. 

#11 Texas +5.5 @ #5 Georgia: Tate will detail the game of the weekend in depth below but I’m predicting a rock fight here. Georgia has notoriously started slow, while Texas and Arch are finally getting their shit together. Texas covers, UGA wins - please don’t come at me, UGA fans, I’ve got enough on my plate this weekend. 

#4 Alabama -5.5 v #11 Oklahoma: Alabama can’t run the ball worth a damn but neither can Oklahoma. In another rock fight, I’ll take the more complete team and far superior QB at home to do just enough when it matters to negate an aggressive Sooners defense. 

San Diego State -2.5 v Boise State: The Broncos will be with QB Maddux Madsen who went down early in their 30-7 loss to Fresno State last time out. Enter walk-on Max Cutforth who threw two picks and barely eclipsed 100 yards in that game. SDSU is a wagon in case you haven’t been paying attention at 7-2 on the year. All of my picks are locks, but this is my super special lock of the week. 

Tate’s Great Picks

Last Week: N/A // Season Record: 30-37 (45%)

USF -8.5 @ Navy

Arkansas +5.5 @ LSU

North Texas -18.5 @ UAB

Alabama -6 vs Oklahoma

NC State +15.5 @ Miami, O54.5

Ole Miss -14.5 vs Florida

UCLA +32.5 @ Ohio State

Mississippi State +7 @ Missouri

UGA -6 vs Texas

Wake Forest & Georgia

UNC (4-5) @ Wake Forest (6-3): WFU -6.5, O/U 38.5 - Saturday 4:30pm ET The CW

The sun is shining in Athens as the dark cloud has finally been lifted off the Georgia football program. Last weekend against Virginia, Wake beat its highest-ranked opponent on the road since defeating the #12 Georgia in 1979. Wake is 2-1 all-time against Georgia for the record. Last week’s game was a crime against humanity, given how ugly and unwatchable it was, but as Dickert says, we’ll never apologize for winning. Veni, vidi, vici for the Deacs in Charlottesville, but the future beckons, and like Jordon Hudson, we’re hoping it includes a fat ass estate on the Cape. 

What happens when an immovable object (Wake’s offense) meets an unstoppable force (UNC’s offense)? A hilariously low O/U line for a game that somehow doesn’t involve Iowa. Wake is averaging 250 yards of offense in their previous three games, which would be good for 135th in the nation over the course of the entire year. Yet somehow, they are 2-1 in those games with two of the wins coming against ACC contenders SMU and Virginia. Wake’s defense is (Trump voice) nasty, very mean, totally unfair to the opposing team! This is probably the best defense Wake’s had since one Mike Elko was roaming the sidelines as defensive coordinator. Carolina is a very similar team minus the tabloid head coach, pageant girlfriend, despised and inept GM, on field results, and promising future…you know, the shit that matters. That being said, Carolina’s defense is tough and the reason why we might see another 12-9 result. Heels DE Melkart Abou Jaoude leads the conference with 10 sacks on the year with 8 of them coming in the last three games. LB Tyler Thompson is second in the conference with 7 of them. I’ll give it to the Heels though, the national media (and us) rightfully buried them all season, their players and parents have been on the record discussing how much of an asshole Belichick and Lombardi are, and still, they’re 4-5 on the year and damn well should be 6-3 even with a QB who is getting paid $1 million to be one of the worse in the country. Given Wake’s standing in the QB department, I thank Gio Lopez for his service. 

I can’t even subjectively preview this game, which is why you’ll never find OnlyRans doling out picks on a Wake or UNC game. I don’t even know what to write about. I should’ve gotten Tate to write about this game. I’m petrified, Wake should win, Carolina can win. Expect the worst, hope for the best. Go Deacs. Smash these fools. 

Surprise! A Quick UNC @ Wake Preview, Presented by Tate:

It would be disrespectful to all of our lovely UNC and Wake readers if I were to describe the offensive football that is going to take place in this game as a televised cry for help, so I won’t do it. It would be very mean if I said that I wouldn’t just rather watch paint dry than watch these two offenses for 60 full minutes - that I’d even rather eat the paint itself - so I won’t say anything like that either. Because of how much I love our readers, I will not describe these two offenses as a plague on athletic competition. In fact, I wouldn’t even think about saying something like that.

So instead, let’s talk about how this game might play out. One big edge that Wake holds in this matchup is its defense’s ability to create turnovers. The Deacs have recovered nine fumbles this year, and this UNC team loves to give the ball away at times. Jake Dickert’s defense has come up with takeaways at timely moments multiple times this season, and even when they’re not forcing turnovers, they do a tremendous job of not letting teams stay ahead of the chains on a consistent basis. While things have often been, umm, less than impressive on the other side of the ball for the Deacs (I’m really trying here, guys), the key difference here in my opinion is that Wake’s defense is actually good, while UNC’s defense has struggled mightily several times this season.

Which leads me to the main point I wanted to make when Rand gave me the honor of writing this quick preview. Bill Belichick had three Super Bowl rings by the time Jake Dickert began his coaching career as a graduate assistant at Wisconsin–Stevens Point, which, I learned today, is a thing that exists. Dickert’s first big shot at being a defensive coordinator came in 2019 at Washington State - seven months after Belichick won his sixth Super Bowl as an NFL head coach. And yet, and I say this with absolutely zero hesitation, the biggest advantage the Wake Forest Demon Deacons will have on Saturday, is the coaching advantage. 

Wake 20, UNC 12. Go Deacs!

#11 Texas (7-2) @ #5 Georgia (8-1): UGA -6.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Drunk maniac Steve Sarkisian brings his Longhorns to Athens in what many Texas fans have called “Georgia’s Super Bowl” over the past couple of years. Texas is looking to stay alive in the playoff race, and while Arch Manning and the gang have indeed started to look a little better in recent weeks, they’ve shown no real ability to move the ball on the road against teams that aren’t Mississippi State. The Dawgs, meanwhile, seem to be rounding into form at just the right time.

To put it simply, this game is going to come down to the Texas offense’s ability or inability to put points on the board. Entering this game, the Horns are averaging 2.2 points per drive (78th nationally), which drops to 1.9 against SEC competition. That’s, uh, pretty dreadful! A lot of that has had to do with Arch Manning struggling mightily for basically the entire first half of the season, but a lot of that had to do with the fact that Texas’s offensive line is not very good at all. Texas is the 8th most penalized team in the entire country (worst in the SEC), much of which comes from the O-Line just grabbing dudes and pulling them to the ground when they get beat about five times per game. The Dawgs’ complete inability to disrupt the pocket has been a story in Athens all season long, but the front seven has started to ramp things up a bit over the past couple of weeks, disrupting and containing DJ Lagway in the pocket two weeks ago in Jacksonville followed up by three sacks, a bunch of hurries and 6 TFL’s against a good Mississippi State offense. Simply put, if the Texas offense is getting beat up front, Texas’s chances then rest on Arch’s ability to consistently make off-schedule plays… I’m not so sure that’s a recipe for success in Athens. The “clash of titans” matchup of this game will come on the other side of the ball between Georgia’s very good run game and Texas’ very good run defense, and while that’ll be interesting to watch, I have full confidence in Gunner Stockton and his receivers’ ability to move the ball when they need to even if we struggle on the ground more than we’re used to. Get Arch off rhythm, and the Dawgs win this game.

With all of that said, Texas is obviously talented enough to beat us. We cannot let that happen. This football program’s entrance into our beloved conference has come with a level of arrogance that even Oklahoma, who actually consistently made the playoffs while in the Big 12, couldn’t even dream of. The Horns’ ability to straight-up buy recruits is already impacting our beautiful program, as seen during last year’s recruitment of five-star Justus Terry - a Georgia kid who Kirby had been recruiting since 8th grade, who on signing day stunned Dawg Nation by announcing his commitment to Texas, who started “recruiting” him two months earlier. The only thing that was sweeter than going out to Austin and whooping the #1 ranked Longhorns last year was Gunner Stockton coming into the game and beating them a second time in Atlanta to win the SEC. We won’t see this team again for another couple of years - let’s not give them anything to brag about, or recruit with, for a little while longer.

Where in the World are We?

Tate: I am headed to Athens on Friday night for the 9:00pm Hoop Dawgs game against Georgia Tech, will get back to Atlanta after midnight, and then will wake up Saturday morning to get on a party bus to head back to Athens for the Texas game, where I will again return to Atlanta well after midnight. I am sure I will be a fully functioning human being on Sunday, energized and ready to get the work week started!

Rand: At 4:30 pm on Saturday, I will be in Winston-Salem, on Wake’s campus, in Wait Chapel, dressed to the nines, at a wedding. Luckily for the plethora of UNC fans in my life and myself if we lose, I will be unreachable Saturday evening, but I’ll sure as hell be watching it. 

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.