Buyers Remorse: Week 7 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Well, that was a hell of a weekend, wasn’t it? We promoted and promised a blockbuster weekend but even that surpassed our lofty expectations. However, in what was a phenomenal weekend for the fans there are boosters around the country who might be having buyers remorse for their NIL contributions. Whether they’re in Knoxville, Columbus, Raleigh, Oxford, or College Park, rich people around the country are not getting the expected ROI from their players. Maybe making 7 figure investments on 18-year-olds isn’t a wise decision, but since most rich people are impatient, egotistical, proud, and do dumb things like buy Twitter or sell NFTs of themselves, we’re happy to sling back the recliner with a bag of popcorn and watch the drama unfold. 

Week 7 Recap

Survive and Advance

Where do we even want to start here? Autzen? Death Valley? LA Coliseum? No, let’s start in Rocky Top because Tennessee fans have wanted the spotlight since Manning left town and now they’re getting it, regardless of how incompetent they looked. 2+ touchdown underdog Florida shut out the Tennessee offense for the entire first half before falling in overtime 23-17. Tennessee’s previously vaunted offense is averaging a paltry 20.6 points per game in conference play. They’re still sitting with only one loss and face finally mortal-looking Bama next weekend, but the playoff expectations might have to be reset with remaining games against Georgia, Kentucky, and dare we say Vandy. Head coach Josh Heupel and QB Nico Iamaleava need to figure out something quick because RB Dylan Sampson (112 yards, 3 TDs) is good, but he cannot continue carrying this team. 

Tiger Stadium is where opponents' dreams come to die and that was certainly the case for Ole Miss who had their playoff aspirations incinerated. There are 60 minutes of regulation in a college football game and LSU led for exactly zero of them, but still won. Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier played horribly the entire game but led a 75-yard touchdown drive with less than 3 minutes to go to tie the game and send it to overtime. Thanks to penalties, Ole Miss was forced to nail a 57-yard FG in overtime before LSU responded with a walk-off touchdown to WR Kyren Lacy. Brian Kelly and the Tigers are undefeated in SEC play and are firmly back in the playoff hunt while Ole Miss can finally focus on the important things like tampering with players around the country or innovative ways to fake injuries.

The performance of the week goes to former walk-on TE Tyler Warren of Penn State who finished with 224 receiving yards and this ridiculous TD grab in their 33-30 victory over USC in the LA Coliseum. The Nittany Lions came back from 14 points down as QB Drew Allar led a game-tying 4th quarter drive of his own to send the game to overtime where they kicked a walk-off field goal. James Franklin has taken his lumps for beating up on everyone not named Ohio State and Michigan you know, the good teams, and that narrative will remain unless he knocks off the Buckeyes in three weeks. However, this win is a reminder that with the talent he can accumulate in Vietnam, Pennsylvania, there might not be a team that is more grateful for the inception of the 12-team playoff. USC slipped to 3-3 on the year but we’re still bullish on QB Miller Moss and the defensive improvement for the long term. The Trojans have a manageable schedule until they travel to South Bend at the end of the year but even then it looks like Lincoln Riley is destined for the Las Vegas Bowl. 

Welcome to the world of mortality Alabama. A week after losing to Vandy in humiliating fashion, they escaped an upset bid from South Carolina on their home turf. Sentences like that were never typed under Nick Saban. Akin to Tennessee above, head coach Kalen DeBoer and QB Jalen Milroe need to solve their offensive malaise quickly because another loss will be a death blow to their playoff chances. South Carolina is spunky, plucky, and hellacious to play as LSU learned a few weeks ago, but the Tide should’ve had Milroe on the bench up by 3+ touchdowns in the 3rd quarter for the previous two weeks. The overreaction from the Bama faithful will always be there and unless DeBoer wins a natty, he will never endear himself or gain the trust of the fanbase. Criticism is warranted and expected but we expected to be having these conversations following the LSU, Georgia, and Tennessee games; not the historic doormats of the conference. Finishing off the SEC, Vandy beat Kentucky 20-13 and might’ve officially taken the title belt from the Wildcats of mid teir program punching well above their weight class. And in Red River, Texas suffocated Oklahoma 34-3. Ewers looked average in his return finishing with 199 passing yards but Oklahoma was playing with their true freshman QB and was missing their entire starting WR corps due to injury.

And finally, the game of the day and perhaps the season occurred in Eugene, Oregon on Saturday night. The Ducks upset Ohio State 32-31 after Buckeyes QB Will Howard failed to end his rush before the clock ran out which would’ve set up a potential game-winning field goal. We don’t want to make sweeping statements following a game between two of the best teams in the country that came down to the final play but of course, there are important things to note. Bucks head coach Ryan Day is one of the best in the business and has an absurd 61-9 overall record, but he’s yet to win a national championship and is 2-6 against top-five teams. Being oh so close against Michigan, Georgia, and now Oregon doesn’t cut it in Columbus, especially when their roster cost a reported $20 million. Meanwhile, the Ducks secured (argulably) their biggest win in program history as Dan Lanning got that elusive signature victory after failing twice against Washington last year. These two programs are transfer portal and NIL stalwarts but the game came down to Oregon getting QB Dillon Gabriel out of the portal while Ohio State opted for Howard. Again, the Buckeyes are not toast and remain one of the few teams that can win the national championship, but their trip to Happy Valley in a few weeks just became a must-win. Two words that will remain a death knell for Ryan Day until he proves otherwise. 

ACC

We want to offer our condolences and sympathy to everyone in the UNC football family after UNC announced the passing of Tylee Craft who lost his battle with lung cancer on Saturday morning before the Georgia Tech game. We give Mack Brown a lot of flack for his coaching and comments but he has had the unfortunate responsibility of rallying his team during this tough time and has done so graciously and compassionately. It’s evident his players love him and we hope for the best for the UNC program and Craft’s family and friends. UNC ended up losing to Georgia Tech 41-34 after RB Jamal Haynes busted a 68-yard run with less than a minute to go when they were clearly playing for overtime. The Jackets ran for 371 yards on the day which should be a fireable offense for DC Geoff Collins who used to coach at Georgia Tech. Earlier in the week some Georgia Tech players who played under Collins made some cryptic comments about how they were treated and how much they wanted this one…and got it.

Elsewhere in the ACC, Pitt continued their winning ways by beating Cal 17-15. Cal missed a 40-yard field goal with less than 2 minutes remaining to secure the Panthers victory. All the focus of Pitt is on QB Eli Holstein who struggled in this game but here’s your PSA to remember RB Desmond Reid who might be the best back in the conference. Pitt has trips to SMU and Louisville as well as a visit from Clemson left so we expect them to sink back into mediocrity by the season’s end. Cal on the other hand has lost their last three games by a combined 8 points but their defense is stout. They’ll continue to be a tough out for everyone left on their schedule. Louisville beat Virginia 24-20 as both teams are 2-1 in the conference. They’re the ringleaders of the plucky ACC teams who are just good enough to pull off an upset and really muck up the conference title race between Clemson and Miami. 

Lastly, NC State slipped to 3-4 on the year after losing to Syracuse at home 24-17. State fans are starting the fire Dave Doeren movement and while it might be misguided, we can’t blame them. It’s year 12 of his tenure and he has a losing record against P5 teams and a losing record in the ACC. He just signed a contract extension so he’s not going anywhere soon but there will be necessary staff changes this offseason. Unlike State, Syracuse picked the right transfer QB this past offseason as Kyle McCord has led the Orange to a 5-1 record in Fran Brown's inaugural season and is a few plays away from being undefeated. They’ve got a huge game at Pitt in two weeks but this season can already be chalked up as a resounding success for the Orange and Brown. 

Big 10

Speaking of coaches who people want to fire, Maryland is not trending in the right direction under Mike Locksley who’s been in College Park since 2019. They’re 3-3 on the year and looked listless on offense against Northwestern at home. They still have to play Oregon, Penn State, USC, and Iowa so a bowl game is likely out of the question. Credit to Northwestern’s David Braun who took over following the Pat Fitzgerald fiasco and had the interim tag removed over the offseason. Even with one of the worst offenses in the Big 10 for seemingly the 20th year in a row, Northwestern is like fighting a masochistic crackhead who wants you to punch them in the mouth so they can punch you right back. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz secured his 200th conference win following their 40-16 beatdown of Washington. RB Kaleb Johnson is leading the conference in rushing yards and touchdowns while Iowa continues to have a steel curtain at defense. They might win out and finish the year 10-2 with their only losses coming to Iowa State and Ohio State. Ferentz is eternal and will likely surpass Woody Hayes for most Big 10 wins of all time by the end of the year. 

In one of the crazier games of the day, Purdue came back from 24 points down in the second half only to fall 50-49 to Illinois in overtime. Are we about to witness a midseason offensive renaissance from the Boilermakers? Freshman QB Ryan Browne got the start over an injured Hudson Card and promptly threw for 297 yards and added another 118 on the ground. They still have to play Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana but with an interim OC and new QB, there’s very little prep you can do on this team right now. Up in Madison, Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell and OC Phil Longo saved themselves from getting dumped in Lake Mendota before it freezes over with the offensive revival they’re engineering. A week after beating Purdue 52-6 they stymied a potent Rutgers rushing attack in a 42-7 victory. QB Braeyden Lock and RB Tawee Walker have 13 TDs combined in the previous three games. Don’t sleep on the Badgers who are getting hot at the right time. 

Big 12

You know when there’s a game in LA and the broadcast shows an aerial view of the city at night and you can see all the red brake lights from traffic but still think ‘Wow that’s pretty’? That’s the Big 12 for you, a beautiful disaster you’re lucky not to be a part of. There are 8 teams with a 2-1 or 3-0 conference record and if you think you know who’s going to win it, buy that lottery ticket now. Undefeated Iowa State might be the best bet after beating West Virginia 28-16 in Morgantown but don’t forget about BYU who has the best defense in the conference and is also unbeaten. The Cougs soaked er, smoked Arizona 41-19, and have the easiest schedule left out of the contenders. Arizona State is 5-1 after beating Utah and deservedly stormed the field. 34-year-old Kenny Dillingham isn’t getting enough attention (yet) for the turnaround he’s crafted in Tempe. Kansas State is also 5-1 after hanging on to beat Colorado in another late-night thriller. Travis Hunter was knocked out of this game with an injury as were two other CU receivers but the fact the Buffs still had a chance in this game and probably should’ve won it is a testament to their competency and talent. Or an indictment on Kansas State for being a fraud, however you want to spin that is up to you. Wildcat QB Avery Johnson is wildly unpredictable but he endeared himself to us in perpetuity after he took a selfie with a fan during the game and did the Deion Sanders dance after scoring a touchdown. Way to be, Avery. The dark horse in this fiasco is Texas Tech which boasts the best running back in the Big 12, scores a trillion points, and refuses to play defense. They’re a true chaos agent and might require appointment viewing in the near future. 

Group of 5

We weren’t alive but 1960 was seemingly a pretty important year in the United States with the Civil Rights Act being ratified, the Vietnam War going on, JFK getting elected, and the Beatles rising to prominence. What’s vastly underappreciated in that year is it was also the last time Army and Navy were ranked in the AP poll simultaneously as they are as of yesterday following their unbeaten records to start the season. They’re on a crash course for the American Conference championship game which would be the week before the standard Army-Navy game. It’s unlikely the winner of the first meeting will make the playoff but both teams face Notre Dame and if they knock off the Irish they’ll own the most impressive G5 victory of the year. The problem is, Boise State is in the driver’s seat with a three-point loss to Oregon as the only blemish on their resume if you can even call it one. Heisman front-runner RB Ashton Jeanty went for 217 yards in their 28-7 victory of Hawai’i and remains on pace to break Barry Sanders’s single-season rushing record. Jeanty will likely do it in more games assuming the Broncos make it to the Mountain West title game and unlike Sanders, Jeanty bowl game will count in the record books too. Challenge it all you want, we won’t stop you, but just recognize that we’re watching one of the greatest running backs in the modern era and he plays on a cotton candy-colored field in Idaho. 

Holding Ourselves Accountable

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 4-4 - Season Record: 29-26

W - Boise -20.5: beat Hawai’i 28-7

W - ULM -6.5: beat Southern Miss 38-21

W/L Vanderbilt +13.5 & Game Total over 46.5: beat Kentucky 20-13

L/W - Stanford +23.5 & Game Total over 45.5: lost to Notre Dame 49-7

L - Penn State -5.5: beat USC 33-30

L - Alabama -21.5: beat South Carolina 27-25

Let me state something first and foremost: Vandy +13.5 was possibly the most free money I have ever made. Reporters who got to interview Diego Pavia after the Alabama win all reported that he was running around the hallways hollering about how they had to go beat Kentucky next, or that win would never be anything more than a meme. They didn’t just cover - they won, and I won money on that too. Great stuff ‘Dores.

All in all though, yet another .500 week on the books which is a bit frustrating. The large-ish favorites I keep picking continue to fail to cover, so that’s a strategy I’ll be reworking from here on out. Penn State decided they could only throw to one single man and therefore could not cover, Alabama apparently sucks ass, and uhhhh yeah, Stanford didn’t cover either. We’re still solidly in the positive on the year so I’ll take it, but these .500 weeks are starting to piss me off. I’m changing that next week, guaranteed!

OnlyRans: Last week: 5-2 - Season Record: 25-34

W - Arizona State +6: beat Utah 27-19

W - Cal +3.5: lost to Pitt 17-15

W - BYU - 4: beat Arizona 41-19

W - Army -15.5: beat UAB 44-10

W - Iowa State -3: beat West Virginia 28-16

L - Washington +2.5: lost to Iowa 40-16

L - Oklahoma +14.5: lost to Texas 34-3

If you made the decision to fade OnlyRans I have zero sympathy for your irresponsibility because, like the Honey Badger, I don’t care. It only took me 8 weeks (including Week 0) for OnlyRans to get hot so I’m permitting myself to gloat. If you want to hold me to my word and not allow me to count the Utah game because Cam Rising did play, that’s fine but I operate in the gray area and he was playing injured. Rising threw 3 picks after injuring his leg and head coach Kyle Whittingham hung him out to dry instead of putting in his semi-capable backup. Utah is toast while Arizona State might be a wagon I’ll continue to ride, much like Army, BYU, and Iowa State. I also almost nailed the upset pick of Florida over Tennessee and I’m kicking myself for not taking Florida +15.5. Why would I pick the upset but not make a pick on the bet? I’ll be even better next week which is a scary proposition for the race for betting supremacy between myself and Tate as he is perpetually .500. OnlyRans is coming. 

Wake Forest & Georgia

(2-4) Wake Forest 14 - (5-1) Clemson 49: Expected outcome against a vastly better team. Dabo is now 16-0 against the Deacs which is the second-longest FBS winning streak in the nation behind Ohio State over Indiana. National media is also quick to mention that Clemson fired Terry Bowden and promoted their WR coach following the 2008 Wake victory so apologies to college football for that one. Wake still hasn’t beaten a top-10 team since 1946 but will likely get one more shot on the road against Miami next month. While I’ve seen this exact Wake Clemson game play out for my entire life save a few wins in the Aughts, Wake lost the previous two meetings by a combined 10 points. It goes to show how fast things can change in college football. Wake’s record is pretty gaudy right now and has two straight road games against UConn and Stanford which are coin flips but we’re not out of bowl contention just yet. Except Miami, every game left on the schedule is winnable, it’s just a matter of whether our defense gives us the opportunity. Onto the next one, Go Deacs. 

(5-1) Georgia 41 - (1-5) Mississippi State 31: Sad, embarrassing, concerning, our coach is too fat.

What else is there to say, really? We started the day with a quick 3 and out, but followed that up with a tipped ball interception that put us down 3-0 to a terrible Mississippi State team to start the game. Once again, the Dawgs refused to get off to a fast start to put a lesser team away and once again it came back to bite us in the end. This team continues to play like it is scared, like it is entirely unconfident in what it is, and that is coaching. It’s easy to put the blame on Kirby and while that’s fair because these things start at the top, I think it’s also fair to accept that our assistant coaches being continuously hired as head coaches elsewhere is finally impacting us on the field. We have four new assistant coaches this year and at several key spots, we just simply are not playing with the same confidence and intensity that’s come to be known as Georgia Football in recent years. We have been slow, sleepy, lethargic, scared, and intimidated in situations that I never would have expected us to so far in 2024. We have to figure this out quickly.

I will give a little bit of grace to the offense. We’re without two massively important starters on the offensive line and were on our third string center again on Saturday, and simply could not run the ball to save our lives. Yes that’s concerning, but neither Tate Ratledge nor Jared Wilson’s injuries are season-ending, and we’ve seen us run the ball effectively already this season. Carson Beck was forced to air it out 48 times (!!!) on Saturday and while he definitely missed some plays, he mostly looked a lot like he did in the 2nd half against Alabama which is absolutely fantastic to see. The receivers are coming along and the staff seems to be opening things up a little more both on the play selection and personnel front (see: Anthony Evans taking several snaps on offense for the first time this season.) I’ve been critical of the tackles all season as well, but they played pretty well on Saturday and the unit as a whole seems to be taking big strides forward.

But the defense is currently playing so far from the standard their predecessors have set that it’s difficult to pin down what the issue is. Many are blaming the DBs, and while most of those guys did not play well on Saturday and have not been playing well as a whole, a lot of that has to do with the fact that the front is not affecting the passer consistently at all, leaving our secondary on islands for way too long. I was willing to forgive most of our schematic shortcomings in 2023 given we’d understandably gotten used to the likes of Devonta Wyatt, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Travon Walker etc. penetrating the backfield in 3 or 4 down fronts for several years, but I can’t understand for the life of me why we still play like we expect to be able to do that after a year and half of not being able to do that. I’m not going to pretend to know more about defense than our gluttonous king, but we have got to find ways to let Mykel, TID, Fat Chris, and Jalon Walker play our fronts and rush passers while allowing at least one of Malaki or KJ Bolden to play centerfield over the top. Yes, I want to see Ellis Robinson play more and I think he will, and yes, Malaki is playing like his shoes are stuck in mud right now. But we have all the pieces we need to be not just good, but borderline dominant on defense, and it’s on the coaches to figure it out. They’re currently failing.

This has been one of the weirdest first-halves of a season I’ve ever experienced as a UGA fan, because we are simultaneously incredible and also horrible. When we’re incredible its mostly because our players are playing freely, and our horridness is typically a result of our coaches failing to let our players do so. We’re on the road against the #1 team in the country next week, and we have every capability of beating them and reestablishing ourselves as the team to beat in 2024. It is on our coaches. It’s time to f*cking show it.

Texts of the Week

“Rand, Fred’s truck is FILLED with supplies - lots of warm blankets, socks, gloves, and snacks as requested headed for Lansing in the morning. Hoping to find some propane too but it’s sold out everywhere. Lots of love and big thanks to all of your readers who contributed. They are giving warmth and hope to those who really need it in remote parts of western NC.” - my family friend who coordinated the fundraiser to give supplies to those impacted by Hurricane Helene. Massive thank you from both of us to those who helped contribute to the fundraiser we ran last week. We really enjoy publishing this newsletter and love it when we get feedback on our writing but texts like those are really special and we never would’ve thought this silly newsletter could lead to a positive impact in our community. Thank you all and we will talk to you on Thursday. 

“We need a serious aura injection right now.” - Alex S.

“I think it’s about time we send Kirby off to go coach the Panthers to a 4-13 record.” - Jack Z.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.