This Is Why We Do It: Week 7 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Under any circumstances, there will be no apple picking, furniture rearranging, or fall photoshoots with pumpkins this weekend. The college football faithful had all of September (save Week 1) to accomplish such menial tasks. We won’t make predictions because as we just saw, anything can happen on any given weekend in this batshit sport but aside from Rivalry Week this is looking like one of the best weekends on the college football calendar. The main card is stacked and the prelims offer intrigue throughout the day so fake the sniffles, twist your ankle, or whatever you need to do to find yourself in front of a TV for an incomprehensible amount of time without distraction. Nielsen thanks you for your service, so let’s get to it. 

Top Week 7 Games to Watch

Red River Rivalry: #1 Texas (5-0) @ #18 Oklahoma (4-1): TEX -14.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 3:30 ET ABC in Dallas, TX

It’s Red River Rivalry weekend, and unpredictability is embedded in this game’s DNA. Since 2014, eight of the past ten matchups have been decided by one score or less, including the legendary 2021 matchup where Texas stormed to a 28-7 lead before Caleb Williams came in and led Oklahoma back to win 55-48 at the last second. Three of those games have gone to overtime, and the underdog has won in five of those same past ten games. To put it simply, there is no rhyme or reason for anything that happens in this game. That’s what makes it so great!

QB Quinn Ewers returns for the Longhorns after missing the past two games, and while Arch Manning performed pretty in his absence, it’s Ewers that makes this team click. We may be down on Michigan but we’re still pretty high on their defense, and Ewers absolutely shredded those guys at the Big House last month in a way we haven’t seen anyone do to them since Stetson Bennett in 2021. Kelvin Banks leads one of the best offensive lines in the country, but Oklahoma’s front - and defense as a whole - is as good as it’s been since the Stoops era, so this will be no easy task for Ewers and the Texas offense.

For Oklahoma’s offense, uh, who knows? All five of their top five receivers have been hurt for weeks which has led them to turn them to backup QB Michael Hawkins Jr. who is more of a threat on the ground. They have looked far from great so far under Hawkins, but also far from inept. It will likely take hitting some big shots on top of incredible efficiency on the ground for Oklahoma to hang with Texas in this one…

…but as we mentioned, this game is the football version of taking a Benadryl and a couple of tequila shots on a flight. You wake up and aren’t sure what happened. This game never makes any sense, and as much as we’d expect Texas to win with ease based on the state of both teams right now, there is no way we’re predicting anything either way. It’s going to be a banger, so tune in.

#2 Ohio State (5-0) @ #3 Oregon (5-0): OSU -3, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 7:30 ET NBC

The game of the week will kick off at 7:30 in Eugene as the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to face Oregon, who absolutely smoked them the last time they played in 2021. The two top teams in the Big Ten haven’t proven much so far but you, me, and our moms know this will be an electric game that we’ll all be tuned in to.

Let’s, get to it, shall we? There is nothing that we know about Ohio State other than the fact that they are supremely talented. Their opponents so far have been: Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State, and Iowa. Has the defense been good? Yes, but they have not yet seen an offense like Oregon’s. The Ducks are led by Dillon Gabriel at QB, and I (Tate) am one of the biggest Dillon Gabriel haters this world has to offer. He’s good when it’s schemed up for him, or mainly when he’s throwing to his left, but otherwise he is not a championship-level QB. Oregon’s receivers are good, but they are largely 5’10 and 190 pounds, which is not what Ohio State’s secondary is. They’ll be dinking and dunking all day long.

Yes, Ohio State needs to show up offensively and to be a true national title contender, and Will Howard needs to show up and prove he’s worthy of being Ohio State’s quarterback. But does he need to dominate in this game? I’m not so sure, because we don’t think Oregon is going to be lighting it up on the other end. While we think OSU may give up some yards, we’re less sure that Oregon can consistently put the ball in the endzone - especially in the redzone. Expect a heavy dose of TreVeon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins from the Buckeyes to make the Ducks prove they can man up and stop them. Oregon is the #3 team in the country and is at home here, but is a 4-point underdog which should tell you a bit about how bettors are expecting this one to go. It doesn’t mean OSU is winning this game with ease - it means this is a game between a bunch of large fast people against a bunch of smaller fast people. We’ll see, but we lean OSU here.

Magnolia Bowl: #9 Ole Miss (4-1) @ #13 LSU (4-1): MISS -3.5, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 7:30 ET ABC

One of 4th & Forever’s games of the year, no matter the circumstances, is Ole Miss and LSU. Annually, this contest is less of a football game and more of a bourbon-fueled fever dream both on and off of the field. But this year, this drunk contest has legitimate playoff implications.

The Rebels’ offense is already one of the more cracked-out experiences you can find in college football, and they’ll be going against an LSU defense that will… also be on the field. Jaxson Dart and his receivers have looked pretty incredible (averaging nearly 500 yards per game) in all but one game, but that game was a loss to Kentucky at home, so even with as bad as LSU’s defense appears to be we have questions about the Rebels’ ability to take full advantage. 

As for LSU’s offense, Garrett Nussmeier continues to look good, but overall has looked more like a good NFL prospect than a national title-contending college QB. Still, the Tigeauexrs are capable of putting up points on just about anybody led by Nuss, WR Kyren Lacy, and one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Is Ole Miss’ transfer portal-led defensive front ready for this test? We tend to think so, but we haven’t seen that actually come to fruition against an offense worth a damn yet. 

Frankly, much like the Red River game, there truly is no point in trying to predict what happens here. This game is going to be extremely drunk, and everybody in the stands will be as well. A playoff birth is truly on the line here with both schools dealing with somewhat manageable schedules moving forward. We can’t offer you a prediction on how this game will turn out, but we can predict that it will be one of the most entertaining and exciting games of the season. If you don’t tune into this one, we promise you’ll be missing out.

Six More Games to Watch Because You’re a Sicko Like Us

#16 Utah (4-1) @ Arizona State (4-1): UTAH -6, O/U 45.5 - Friday 10:30 pm ET ESPN

The never ending saga of “will Cam Rising play or not” has fully jumped the shark at this point, but somehow we are still here ahead of this late Friday showdown in Tempe. Utah came into the season as the favorite in the Big 12 almost entirely because Rising finally seemed healthy after missing almost all of the previous two years with injury, but now he is once again not playing and questionable for tomorrow’s game. Utah may still be able to win without him, but Arizona State has been maybe the surprise of the league so far having won some tough games against Texas State and Kansas and remain in the Big 12 race themselves. If nothing else, watch some of this game to check out ASU running back Cam Skabetto. He’s an absolute bowling ball and a 4th & Forever favorite.

#4 Penn State (5-0) @ USC (3-2): PSU -5.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

Yes, Penn State is ranked all the way up at #4 and yes, we are just as surprised about that as you are. After looking like world beaters against West Virginia to start the year, the new offense led by Andy Kotelnicki has slowed down in recent weeks - only scoring 21 against Illinois and 27 against an awful UCLA team, both of which came shortly after only beating Bowling Green 34-27. Still, there’s a lot to like about them. Particularly both the offensive and defensive lines, which is always ideal, and the running back duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Meanwhile, USC was largely manhandled up front on both sides by both Michigan and Minnesota, neither of which have the talent up front that Penn State does. But the Trojans are at home and their backs are against the wall, so we expect a bounceback performance as they try to stay alive in the Big Ten. 

California (3-2) @ #22 Pittsburgh (5-0): PITT -3.5, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

This game would not be on here if Cincinnati did not blow a 21-point, 3rd quarter lead and West Virginia didn’t blow a 10-point lead with less than 5 minutes remaining to Pitt. That’s because we’d be talking about a 3-2 Pitt with wins over North Carolina, Youngstown State, and Kent State. Pitt QB Eli Holstein has been a perfect fit in new OC Walt Bell’s offense but we’re being cautious in calling him a revelation given their SOS is 92nd in the country. That being said, Holstein has racked up yards, touchdowns, and rarely turns it over. It’s a marked improvement from a Pitt offense that was DFL in just about every offensive statistic in the ACC last year.

He’s got his hands full with a Cal defense that has been an immovable object the entire season outside of the nuclear-level meltdown in the last 10 minutes of the Miami game last week. A Pitt win would further solidify their claim as the ACC’s third-best team and we’d be forced to give Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi his flowers even though he is one of the biggest assholes in the game. So we ask the higher powers of the #Calgorithm to do us, the ACC, and the nation a solid here. Beat Pitt and let the suburban moms of Philadelphia who will singlehandedly decide the election focus on who they’re voting for instead of swooning over a 19-year-old from Louisiana.

Arizona (3-2) @ #15 BYU (5-0): BYU -4, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 4:00 pm ET FOX

If you haven’t noticed by now, BYU is undefeated and at the top of the Big 12 standings, furthering our already growing belief that Jesus may actually have visited the state of Missouri. The Cougars are playing great defense, as the usually do, but the most fun part about this team is that their starting quarterback, Jake Retzlaff (1,200 yards, 12 TDs), is Jewish. Who’da thunk it? This is a massive game for BYU who hopes to keep their playoff dreams alive in only their second year as a Big 12 school, but getting past the phenomenal Arizona duo of QB Noah Fifita and WR Tet McMillan is no easy task. This one’s going to be a lot of fun.

#11 Iowa State (5-0) @ West Virginia (3-2): ISU -3, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET FOX

The Cyclones are flying under the radar in the crowded Big 12 race and if they survive a road test in Morgantown, they’ll cruise into November as an undefeated top-10 team. West Virginia is coming off a 389-yard (!!) rushing performance against Oklahoma State and even though they’re 3-2, both of their losses are out of conference. The Neers passing offense is about as effective as Florida State’s, but that might not matter against a Cyclones D that is mediocre at stopping the run. If the Neers can play keep-away from the potent Iowa State offense, they could throw a grenade into the Big 12 standings. Cyclones QB Rocco Becht is one of the best in the conference and his favorite targets are WRs Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins who have combined for 70% of the team's receiving yards and 7 of the 9 touchdowns. Don’t tell us we didn’t warn you about the Cyclones if they win here. 

#18 Kansas State (4-1) @ Colorado (4-1): KSU -4.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 10:15 pm ET ESPN

Which Kansas State and more importantly Avery Johnson are we going to get this week? Will the Wildcat QB turn the ball over and struggle mightily as he did in the 38-9 loss to BYU or carve up the defense on the ground and through the air like he did before their bye week against Oklahoma State? It’ll probably land somewhere in the middle which is still a boon for Colorado. The Buffs, especially during night games at Folsom Field, thrive in chaos and getting teams out of their rhythm. When you’ve got a live buffalo, a Hollywood red carpet gaggle of celebrities, and enough jewelry on the CU sidelines to rival a small country's GDP, we don’t blame Johnson if he gets antsy and rushes things. Kansas State should lean into RB DJ Giddens who can get 100 yards in the blink of an eye to settle Johnson and then attack the non-Travis Hunter portion of the CU secondary. Once again, Shedeur Sanders is going to be running for his life against this Kansas State front led by DE Brendan Mott. If Colorado wins this one, the hype train will kick right back into overdrive like we saw early last year. 

Bar Beatdowns

This group of games is called Bar Beatdowns because if you find yourself at a local bar this weekend one of these games will likely be on. That’s because all of these games involve a top-ranked playoff contender who’s favored by 2+ touchdowns. We expect them to romp but on the off chance they don’t we want to keep you abreast of the storylines to follow and arm you with nerdy facts to bore your friend group and significant other with.

South Carolina (3-2) @ #7 Alabama (4-1): ALA -21.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ABC

Reasons to watch: It’s been a bit hard to figure out what Alabama actually is this year. Are they more of the team that absolutely demolished arguably the best team in the country in Georgia for an entire half, or are they more like the team that blew that massive lead, almost lost, and then went and lost to Vanderbilt? The clear issue with this team right now is the secondary, and we don’t think South Carolina will be able to take advantage of that weakness enough to win this game. But how Alabama responds to last week’s colossal embarrassment will tell us more about what we should expect out of this team moving forward. 

Stanford (2-3) @ #11 Notre Dame (4-1): ND -23.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET NBC

Reasons to watch: Notre Dame is a heavy favorite against an inferior opponent at home? This should get interesting. Stanford comes in off blowout losses to Virginia Tech and Clemson but has a nice upset win over Syracuse on the resume. There’s really only one player to keep your eye on and that’s WR Elic Ayomanor. If the Irish win out they’ll make the playoff, but as we know with a Marcus Freeman-coached team, every game needs to be closely monitored like a toddler with a small object near its mouth. 

Florida (3-2) @ #8 Tennessee (4-1): TENN -15.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Reasons to watch: Similar to Alabama, Tennessee is coming off of a brutal road loss to a lower-level SEC team but remains in the playoff race. Nico and the offense have struggled to get things going in recent games, but playing Florida’s defense might be just what the doctor ordered. The Gators have exactly zero pass rush, and their effort as games wear on is even more questionable. Will we get one step closer to Billy Napier being fired, or can he stay alive and make Tennessee this week’s SEC laughing stock? We’ll be tuned in. 

#17 Boise State (4-1) @ Hawai’i (4-1): BOIS -20.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 11:00 pm ET CBSSN

Reasons to watch: Boise’s RB Ashton Jeanty, Ashton Jeanty, and more Ashton Jeanty. You won’t even have to watch past halftime because he’ll likely have 200 yards and 3 touchdowns before he rides the bench throughout the rest of the blowout. Get your eyes on this kid before the NFL throws him in the running back meatgrinder like a chicken at a Tyson factory. 

Trivia Question

Who has the most rushing yards in Oregon history? Hint: It’s not an obscure name from the 40s.

Tate’s Great Picks (25-22)

#17 Boise State (4-1) @ Hawai’i (4-1): BOIS -20.5, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 11:00 pm ET CBSSN

Pick Boise State -20.5: First of all, I love that this line has dropped down below three touchdowns. Hawai’i is far from a bad team, but the Broncos from Idaho are absolutely rolling on both sides of the ball led by, obviously, Heisman favorite running back Ashton Jeanty. I’m expecting an entertaining first half where Hawai’i hangs around, but their lack of depth will get worn down and the Broncos will easily pull away in the second half.

South Carolina (3-2) @ #7 Alabama (4-1): ALA -21.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ABC

Pick Alabama -21.5: Alabama’s primary issue right now is, by far, it’s secondary. It’s pretty bad right now. What’s South Carolina’s primary issue? Their complete and utter inability to throw the ball. The Tide roll with ease in a bounce back game.

#4 Penn State (5-0) @ USC (3-2): PSU -5.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

Pick PSU -5.5: Against both Michigan and Minnesota, USC has gotten largely abused on both lines of scrimmage, and the Trojans recently lost former 5-star Bear Alexander off of their defensive line to the portal. Whose lines of scrimmage are even better than Michigan and Minnesota’s? Penn State. This won’t be a huge blowout, but I think Penn State wins by two scores.

Stanford (2-3) @ #11 Notre Dame (4-1): ND -23.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET NBC

Pick Stanford +23.5, O 45.5: Two words: Elic Ayomanor. The Stanford receiver is an absolute stud and consistently performs on the biggest stages, like on national TV against Syracuse earlier this year as well as last year when he absolutely dominated Travis Hunter. I think Stanford can keep this within three scores, and that Stanford can put up some points for this game to hit the over.

Southern Miss (1-4) @ UL-Monroe (4-1): ULM -6.5, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 5:00 pm ET ESPN+

Pick ULM -6.5: If you haven’t figured it out by now, ULM is pretty good! Their only loss is to #1 Texas, they’re at home behind an excited fanbase, and I love that we’re getting this at -6.5 rather than -7. USM is on the verge of firing head coach Will Hall - I’m just seeing a strong Warhawk W here.

Vanderbilt (3-2) @ Kentucky (3-2): UK -13.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 7:30 pm ET SECN

Pick Vanderbilt +13.5, O 46.5: I’m sorry… Are we really expecting Vanderbilt to lose by two touchdowns to Kentucky after last week? These guys have an absolutely unwavering confidence in themselves, are led by one of the league’s best QBs, and are coming off the biggest win in program history. Sure, Kentucky is coming off of a bye here, but I think the market is being tricked by Kentucky’s near-win against UGA and actual-win against Ole Miss, where they were able to play keep-away from the opposing offense all game. Vandy just had the ball for 42 minutes against Alabama… give me a close game with more points than expected.

OnlyRans (20-32)

#1 Texas (5-0) @ #18 Oklahoma (4-1): TEX -14.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 3:30 ET ABC in Dallas, TX

Pick Oklahoma +14.5: Last week, Tate and I took Clemson -14.5 knowing it is one of the worst lines to bet in football and it worked, but this week I’m leaning into the impending karma. The cliche of ‘throw out the record books in a rivalry game’ is overused and outdated in every rivalry except Red River. Double-digit favorites are 0-5 in covering in the last 12 years. Most of the time Texas was the underdog but OnlyRans don’t care. That was a Honey Badger reference for the uninitiated or my mom who will text me about the poor grammar. Anyway, Horns QB Quinn Ewers is going to be back for his first action since September 14th. As experienced as he is I have reservations about simply throwing him back into the offense and expecting immediate success. Lastly, they’re #1 in the nation thanks to preseason rankings and SEC carnage around them, not on merit. They have the 101st-best SOS in the nation and their road win over Michigan is not carrying much water anymore. Maybe I just want a good game, but don’t yOU too?

#11 Iowa State (5-0) @ West Virginia (3-2): ISU -3, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET FOX

Pick Iowa State -3: I usually put more emphasis than normal on when and where a game is taking place so a night game in Morgantown gives me pause but the West Virginia team does not. QB Garrett Greene is a turnover machine and if Iowa State jumps out to a lead, he is incapable of stacking scoring drives, especially against an Iowa State pass D that is one of the best in the country. If the Neers run for a billion yards again then I guess I’ll need to hop back on the bandwagon I rode off a cliff to begin the year but I’ll take the better coach and quarterback in this spot. 

UAB (1-4) @ Army (5-0): ARMY -25.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET CBSSN

Pick Army ML: Gotta stack up some easy wins to climb out of this hole and are you going to tell me that’s cheap? It’s Army you asshole. Kidding…OnlyRans says take Army -25.5. The UAB players have thrown in the white towel on the season and have one of the worst rushing defenses in the country. Is 25.5 a lot of points for a triple-option team? Yes, but Army has 42 rushing plays on the season that have gone over 20 yards. 

Arizona (3-2) @ #15 BYU (5-0): BYU -4, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 4:00 pm ET FOX

Pick BYU -4: Remember when I said I put a lot of emphasis on when and where a game is being played? Well, LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo is a madhouse. I don’t care that this game is in the daytime, I think Arizona is way too reliant on the Fifita - McMillan connection. They’ll get theirs but I think BYU will continue to rack up the interceptions against Fifita as he tries to force it. 

California (3-2) @ #22 Pittsburgh (5-0): PITT -3.5, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

Pick Cal +3.5: Is this biased given my disdain for Pitt? Perhaps but I’m still not a believer in the Panthers given their schedule and fortuitous but irreplicable late-game heroics. They’ll come back down to earth and I think it’ll be here. I don’t love Cal having to travel across the country after their emotional batteries were drained like my bank account last weekend, but defense travels. If Pitt smacks them then I can chalk it up to that, but until then I’m fading Pitt and will refuse to acknowledge their competence. 

Washington (4-2) @ Iowa (3-2): IOWA -2.5, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX

Pick Washington +2.5: Yeah, yeah Big 10 teams traveling across 2+ time zones have an abysmal record but do you know who isn’t factored into that yet? Iowa. Iowa has the exact same profile as Michigan except they’re shittier. Run the ball, play defense, and start a the equivalent of a Pee Wee kid at QB. Iowa’s defense has been surprisingly susceptible to the pass and now they have to face Will Rogers who just carved up Michigan’s D. Fun fact: when was Iowa QBs Cade McNamara’s last touchdown pass against a P4 opponent? 2021 against Iowa when he was the QB at Michigan. Give me the Huskies on the road to score an insurmountable 17 points and cover with ease. 

#16 Utah (4-1) @ Arizona State (4-1): UTAH -6, O/U 45.5 - Friday 10:30 pm ET ESPN

Pick Arizona State +6: I did this with Texas A&M a few weeks ago, but I reserve the right to void this bet if Utes QB Cam Rising plays. You have a better shot at figuring out who the Zodiac Killer is than if Cam Rising throws a football. Even if he does and it hits, I will not count it because I am a man of integrity, unlike Hugh Freeze. Excluding their beatdown of Wyoming, all of Arizona State’s games have been decided by 8 points or less. They’re also at home under the lights and RB Cam Skattebo still exists. I’m bullish on Arizona State in the long run and an upset to Utah would not surprise me.

Upset Call of the Week

The rules for this section are simple. We’re both going to pick a double-digit underdog to pull off the upset outright. This does not count for or against our betting totals above (not that it’d matter for Rand) but it’s simply for bragging rights.

Rand: Wake Forest +20.5 to Clemson anyone? No? Alright, give me Florida +15.5 over Tennessee. 

Tate: Vanderbilt +13.5 over Kentucky

Wake Forest & Georgia

#10 Clemson (4-1) @ Wake Forest (2-3): CLEM -20, O/U 60.5 - Saturday noon ET ESPN

Clemson returns to Winston-Salami for the first time since the 2022 DJU game where he led the Tigers to the 51-45 double-overtime victory. In that game, he threw for 371 and 5 TDs which was one less than Sam Hartman threw. DJU has played in 26 college football games since and has not crossed the 300 passing-yard threshold once. Before getting injured this year he only threw for 4 TDs in five total games. Did the confidence gained from the Wake game irreparably break DJU? People are wondering. 

The 2023 rendition of this one-sided conference matchup was the complete antithesis of what we saw in Winston where the Tigers knocked off the Deacs 13-9 in Death Valley. If Wake has any shot this year, they’ll likely need another shootout which is much easier said than done. There’s a lot of fodder from the national media about QB Cade Klubnik’s transformation and while I think it’s legit let’s pump the brakes real quick. I took AP Stats in high school (don’t ask me what I got) but I do know you should throw out the lowest and highest extremes in a data set. So let’s ignore his horrendous Georgia performance and toss his 378-yard game against App State. We’re left with NC State, Stanford, and Florida State. They rank 78th, 105th, and 83rd in passing defense respectively. Klubnik’s completion percentage is in line with last year’s when he was “atrocious” and his yardage is only up by 30 yards/game. Notably, his yards/attempt is up by over two yards which for the non-AP Stats takers is significant. 

WR Antonio Williams had emerged as a legit #1 receiver while TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr are the freshman 5-star receivers. Klubnik has certainly improved but he’s not lighting the world on fire, it’s just much better than what we’ve seen out of him for the past two years. He’s still buoyed by a strong running game led by Phil Mafah. More offensive weapons, familiarity with OC Garrett Riley’s scheme, and game experience had allowed Klubnik to become an above-average ACC QB. Crazy how that works. Is Clemson a legit playoff threat? Yes, given the state of the ACC but they aren’t explosive enough to knock off the best of the SEC or Big 12. The pressure and weekly mockery of Dabo has simmered for the time being but if they take a beating to a South Carolina or Miami in a potential ACC Championship then it’ll crank right back up. 

Back to the game at hand, the Deacs will be without best WR Donavon Greene for the second straight game but the emergence of Micah Mays and Deuce Alexander during the State game was promising. For Clemson, it looks like DL Peter Woods will be a full participant after being limited against FSU. That’s bad news for the Deacs as Woods is a game wrecker and future 1st round draft pick. Akin to the stats on Klubnik, it’s hard to get an accurate read on how good (or not) this defense is. App State, NC State, Stanford, and Florida State are some of the worst offenses in the country based on advanced metrics. I’m going to stop stat geeking and just say this is not the Clemson defenses of old as that’s an impossible standard to be held to. However, they have NFL talent at all three levels and as we’ve seen against everyone including Georgia, they can put the clamps down early. The Deacs will need a balanced offensive attack, keep the pressure off Bachmeier, and just like water is wet we’ll need to make some stops. Let’s beat Clemson for the first time since 2008 and pull a once-in-a-generation upset. If Vandy can do it, why not us? Roll Deacs. 

Mississippi State (1-4) @ #5 Georgia (4-1): UGA -33, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 4:15 pm ET SECN

There have certainly been some dreadful Vanderbilt teams over the years, but I am not sure that a worse SEC team has visited Sanford Stadium in several decades. Mississippi State’s one win was over FCS Eastern Kentucky, they got blown out by Toledo at home, and head coach Jeff Lebby completely abandoned his long-time offensive identity of being very up-tempo against Texas in order to shorten the game just so he could save some face from getting their doors blown off - they literally didn’t even try to win. This is a middle of the pack G5 level roster, so yeah, the Dawgs should not be tested too much on Saturday.

With all of that said, I won’t bore you with too long of a breakdown as I have a feeling the fake Bulldogs will deploy a similar gameplan they did against Texas - run the ball and waste clock early in the game to try to “hang in there” for a while and avoid an embarrassing 55-point loss. I’d like to see our real Dawgs not fall into the trap of allowing the first half to fly by - we need to come out and attack, come out and execute at a high level, and do everything we can to put this one away early. It will be interesting to see how we deploy our wide receivers in the absence of Colbie Young, and we need to see continued improvement from the offensive line, especially at the tackle spots. But honestly, this is about a little of a test as you could possibly have leading into the massive showdown in Austin next weekend. Establish the run, play great defense, blow this team out and get the hell out of there as healthy as possible. Enjoy the rest of the incredible slate on Saturday because this one won’t be a contest… but the season is on the line next week.

Where In The World Are We?

Tate: I plan on waking up around 8:30am and after taking my pup out and making a coffee, sitting on the right side of my couch. I plan on remaining there to watch College Gameday until it’s time for lunchtime and the noon slate. I plan on then moving one couch cushion over to the left to change things up. From there, the odds that I continue moving left on my couch is remarkably high. This is where I will remain until the end of the Bosie State/Hawaii game. 

Rand: Work trips during the week sound fun until you have to spend three days in northern New Jersey like I have. Homeostasis will be achieved when I return later tonight to Winston and, of course, I’ll be at the Wake-Clemson game. After the game ends I’ll promptly rush home to sit, lay, and rot on my couch and watch enough football on various screens to cause an epileptic episode. Deacs by a million. 

Trivia answer: Not LaMichael James, De’Anthony Thomas, LeGarrette Blount or let’s remember some guys real quick, Kenjon Barner or Jonathan Stewart. It’s Royce Freeman who rushed for 5,621 from 2014-2017. 

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.