Week 8 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. This week we’ve got top 25 matchups in four Power 5 conferences, a bitter rivalry that led to players getting assault charges last year, and a matchup one fanbase has been waiting literal decades for. A certain someone’s bets (not naming names) have been utterly abysmal this year, so in true College GameDay fashion, we brought in a celebrity guest picker to weigh in. We’re also going to be looking at how our preseason win totals are doing thus far while talking about reality television, Papa John’s, and how Rand would like to be buried, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

4 Week 8 Games to Watch

#7 Penn State (6-0) @ #3 Ohio State (6-0): OSU -4.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Finally, FINALLY, we have a reason to watch a Big 10 matchup that doesn’t involve taping our eyelids open to watch Iowa’s offense. The first marquee matchup of the Penn State-Ohio State-Michigan round-robin that has immense playoff implications is here. We all know the story with Ohio State by now: new QB Kyle McCord can throw to whichever five-star, future NFL receiver he wants, they can’t really run the ball even with TreVeyon Henderson, and the defense is elite. Let’s focus on the Nittany Lions who might have more NFL talent than the Buckeyes which is almost unfathomable.

Led by sophomore, former five-star, and Ohio native QB Drew Allar the Nittany Lions don’t seem to have a true WR1 as they have in the past with KJ Hamler, Allen Robinson, et al. but a bunch of very solid WR2’s led by KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Harrison Wallace III which seems like a problem, but the scouting consensus is that Ohio State’s secondary is overrated. Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are averaging over 4 yards/carry and have combined for 9 TDs on the year. Left tackle Olu Fashanu will be a top 5 pick in April, with fellow lineman Drew Shelton going high in 2025. Penn State has played dog water thus far and hasn’t shown a propensity to push the ball downfield even with Allar’s rocket arm which might be an issue unless they’ve been saving their playbook for this game which is probable.

They’re even more talented on defense which is impressive given we just listed off at least 4 future first-round picks. CBs Kalen King & Cam Miller will have the unenviable task of guarding Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, while DLs Chop Robinson (great name), Abdul Carter, and Zane Durant lead a unit that pressures quarterbacks on 50% of dropbacks which is asinine. The matchup of the day will be Ohio State’s offense versus Penn State’s defense, especially when McCord drops back to pass. The Horseshoe will be rocking, and FOX analyst Gus Johnson will be screaming so we hope you enjoy.

Tate’s prediction: 26-24 Penn State: We’re due for an Ohio State offensive stinker. The Buckeyes can’t run the ball right now and McCord is scheduled for a letdown. Penn State has been waiting for this exact moment for years - the Nittany Lions walk it off with a game-winning field goal.

Rand’s prediction: 27-17 Ohio State: Everyone’s writing off Ohio State and acting like Penn State is all of a sudden a juggernaut in the Big 10. Maybe they are, they’re certainly playing like it but unless you’re Michigan, I won’t believe anyone is beating the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe until I see it.

#17 Tennessee (5-1) @ #11 Alabama (6-1): Bama -9.5, O/U 48 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

One of, if not the best games of the 2022 season makes its return in Tuscaloosa this weekend, and these two teams could not look much different than they did during their classic game last season. Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton has been wildly inconsistent so far this season, and Tennessee has had to rely a lot more on complementary football with their defense and physical, interior running game than they did last year with QB Hendon Hooker. This Alabama team has thrived against the run so far and is really good in the secondary. That likely means Alabama can commit one less defender in the box most of the time, which is the absolute last thing that Tennessee wants to see, as proven by Georgia last year.

On the other end, QB Jalen Milroe continues to prove that if a stretch of the game is hit where he has to make consistent and accurate intermediate passes, Bama is probably going to struggle on offense. That will give Tennessee an opportunity, even though Bama is the better team. Both fanbases will be chomping at the bit to follow up last year’s classic, despite the two fanbases combining for 27 total teeth. This is one of the best rivalries in the sport and you don’t need us to tell you to tune in.

Tate’s prediction: 24-20 Alabama. Bama’s offense will struggle at times, but their defense will carry them once again. It is known.

Rand’s prediction: 27-14 Rammer Jammer. I’d love to fade Tate here, but Saban is not losing to Tennessee two years in a row. This game is in TitleTown and all the offseason hype about Tenn QB Joe Milton being able to complete short and intermediate passes on a consistent basis has been proven unfounded.

#16 Duke (5-1) @ #4 Florida State (6-0): FSU -14.5, O/U 49 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Another week, another Duke primetime TV slot which is breaking the space-time continuum. This is a very big, eyebrow-raising line for Florida State as they face one of the best defenses in the country. Duke is giving up less than 10 points/game, 75 rushing yards/game, and a ridiculous 164 passing yards/game. Duke head coach Mike Elko is a wizard, but he’s got his hands full with this Florida State offense. Noles QB Jordan Travis is expected to be good to go after he injured his hand against Syracuse last weekend, while 6’7 WR Johnny Wilson is also expected to play after missing last week's contest. Duke, meanwhile, is supposed to have QB Riley Leonard back but we’re interested to see how mobile he is as he recovers from an ankle sprain. Florida State has had difficulty running the ball consistently this year, and it will be very interesting if they have success or are forced to air it out against Duke’s elite secondary.

#14 Utah (5-1) @ #18 USC (6-1): USC -6.5, O/U 56 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

Utah’s offense sucks. USC’s defense sucks. But does USC’s offense also suck? It’s possible everything in this game sucks, let’s gooooooo. In all seriousness, this is an opportunity to watch the best (non-Brock Bowers) player in the country avenge not only last week’s loss against Notre Dame but USC’s two losses to Utah last year. We’re all enamored with Washington, Oregon, and USC (‘s offense) this year, but two-time defending PAC 12 champion Utah has a habit of blowing the whole league up and fighting their way to the championship game which they then win because they are more tough and physical than everybody else, and really matters by the time these kids hit December. Utah can’t figure out which hurt and/or shitty quarterback to play, while USC has arguably the best QB draft prospect we’ve seen since Andrew Luck. And yet, this game is more or less a toss-up. If that doesn’t get you pumped for this one, we’re not quite sure what will.

5 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

Washington State (4-2) @ #9 Oregon (5-1): Oregon -20.0, O/U 61 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Both teams are coming off of tough losses last week, but don’t let that fool you into thinking this isn’t an interesting one to watch. Much like Texas’ loss to Oklahoma, Oregon’s close loss to Washington likely only means one thing - the two teams are going to meet again in the conference championship game, and it’s going to be for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Washington State QB Cam Ward remains one of the most exciting players in the PAC 12, and Oregon’s secondary has not yet proven they cannot wholly let their team down. This one could be very exciting.

#8 Texas (5-1) @ Houston (3-3): Texas -23.0, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FOX

Houston has been waiting on a conference matchup with Texas for almost thirty years since the Southwest Conference disbanded in 1996. Texas & Houston have matched up 25 times in their history, but not since 2002 and Houston hasn’t won since 1991. If that seems like a long time for two schools separated by a mere 150 miles, it’s because it is, and a lot of the blame can be put on the Longhorns. Quick history lesson as to why Houston fans and boosters are so eager for this matchup. After the Southwest Conference disbanded, Texas moved to the Big 12 and Houston became a charter member of Conference USA. A little suspect that a massive, nationally relevant athletic program home to Andre Ware, Carl Lewis, and Hakeem the Dream would be relegated to C-USA, no? Rumors have it that Texas (along with Texas A&M) lobbied the Big 12 against adding Houston and the conference abided. There were many, many more instances of Houston not securing a Big 12 invite over the past decades and the animosity reached the highest levels of Texas legislature. Houston finally earned an invite to the Big 12 and very conveniently got a home game against Texas the one year they share the same conference. Shoutout to the Cougars for being able to say they’re on the same level as the Longhorns for a season, but they’re going to get drilled here, and an embarrassing loss is the last thing head coach Dana Holgerson needs if he wants to keep his job.

TCU (4-3) @ Kansas State (4-2): Kansas State -6.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN2

Having spoken about Texas and (somewhat) about Oklahoma already, we’d be remiss to not mention the position Kansas State is in right now. Everyone is writing #8 Texas right back into the Big 12 Championship game, but people seem to be ignoring the fact that Kansas State is in the exact same position as Texas in the conference - both only have one loss. The Wildcats struggled offensively early but have found their groove after letting backup QB Avery Johnson (who had five rushing touchdowns last week, btw) take over. This team has, in addition to being the defending champs, been the most well-coached, physical team in recent history. If you are gearing up for a Red River rematch in early December, you are remiss to count out this Kansas State team quite yet. On the TCU end, the Frogs are the defending national runner-ups and are looking to prove that they are still a force to be reckoned with in the conference. Sometimes, all you need in a game is for two teams to want it really badly and be really physical. Go ahead and keep this one on your radar, because both of these teams fit that mold.

#2 Michigan (7-0) @ Michigan State (2-4): Michigan -24.0, O/U 48 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Commentators love to say you should ‘throw out the record books’ during a rivalry game. You can keep them in your possession this time because Michigan is going to stomp the Spartans. However, this has the potential to turn from a figurative stomping to a literal one. If you remember last year, Michigan State players ganged up on a Michigan player in the Big House tunnel, and beat the hell out of him to the point assault charges were filed against seven MSU players. Over the summer when the game time was announced to primetime, Michigan State radio personality Mike Valenti issued a warning to Michigan fans. “Here’s the PSA I would offer and it’s not hyperbole. I’m being real with you because people are nuts and I don’t condone what all people do. But I’m just telling you friendly advice if you’re a Michigan fan, don’t be there. Don’t be there. Don’t bring the women and children. Don’t be there. Don’t show up in your egregious butter themed t-shirt garb. Don’t be there. It’s the equivalent of playing stupid games and winning stupid prizes. That is going to be arguably the most hostile environment this rivalry’s ever had. Ever. Ever… it will be a tinder box. Don’t be there. Find something else to do somewhere other than East Lansing. I would never, if I was a Michigan fan, be at that game, because there’s decent odds you’ll be eating a battery. I don’t condone it, I ain’t telling people to behave that way. But I know what Spartan fans are feeling and how that’s going to go down after what happened last year. And how MSU got railroaded. Yeah, that is not a place to be. Don’t bring the kids.” We aren’t especially clued into the interworkings and toxicity of Michigan colleges & university fanbases, but it’s certainly telling if Michigan’s fanbase is the one that is considered morally superior. Go Blue - 4th & Forever supports you.

Clemson (4-2) @ Miami (4-2): Clemson -3.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

This is a ‘which coach needs this win more’ type of matchup and it looks like the pressure is getting to Dabo. On his radio show Tuesday, Dabo said, “We’re at a point in our time — and I hate that — where people (think) if you don’t go undefeated, you’re losers and you’re terrible…It’s just such a terrible mindset. Honestly, maybe we need to lose a few games and lighten up the bandwagon. Sometimes, the bandwagon can get a little too full.” He then had to walk back some of those comments after all the warranted blowback he got. Yes, Dabo, it is very hard to win consistently but you’re not paid $10mil/year to lose to Duke and barely beat Wake. YOU are paid to beat the Bama’s, Georgia’s, and Ohio State’s of the world. YOU are lucky you won’t have to play one of them in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl this year because it’d be a bloodbath. YOU created this admittedly irrational fan expectation by winning at the highest levels of the sport for an extended period of time. YOU should focus on why your offense has slipped from unstoppable to unwatchable even after you brought in the hottest offensive coordinator in the country and ran off former five-star DJ Uiagalelei (who is excelling at Oregon State btw). If YOU weren’t so focused on what the fans think even though you say you’re not but consistently make comments about what they think, maybe you’d peruse the transfer portal for a wide receiver who has a pulse. All the respect in the world for Dabo and what he built at Clemson, but show some accountability, please. Anyways, they should beat Miami in a very ugly game, unless they intentionally lose to ‘lighten the bandwagon.’

Midseason Win Totals Check-In

Four score and seven years ago in our first-ever newsletter, we looked at Regular Season Win Totals and tried to make some predictions. With the midway point of the season here, we thought it’d be a useful yet painful exercise to see how they are panning out thus far.

OnlyRans

Florida State (6-0) U 9.5

This one aged worse than Matthew Perry especially after I predicted the Noles to lose to LSU & Clemson last month. A lot of credit to head coach Mike Norvell for turning this program around but more credit goes to the trigger-happy boosters who begrudgingly stuck with him after some very rough early years. The Noles have won convincingly against LSU 45-24, in tough road environments against Clemson 31-24 (OT), and incredibly ugly against Boston College 31-29. Their offense led by QB Jordan Travis and WRs Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson is one of the best in the country when healthy, but questions remain about their rushing attack and defense. Even with a schedule that still includes Duke, Miami (FL), and at Florida, I’m interested to see if their defense can win them a game if QB Jordan Travis blows up for a bunch of interceptions as he’s done in previous years, or if he’s turned a corner. Watch out for their October 28th road trip to Winston-Salem where the Deacs have won three in a row for only the second time in series history, but the Deacs haven’t beaten an AP top-10 team since 1946 against Tennessee. One of these unfathomable streaks will fall.

Louisville (6-1) U 8

I wasn’t feeling very confident about this one when Louisville knocked off Notre Dame 33-20 to move to 6-0, but then the Cards laid an ostrich egg against Pittsburgh last weekend and lost 38-21. Games against Duke, at Miami (FL), and Kentucky could result in three losses while home matchups against Virginia & Virginia Tech are likely dubs. I can only hope Louisville’s season blows up in their face and their program burns in the pits of hell given the suffering they’ve caused me over the years, athletic department immorality, and promotion of f*cking Papa John’s. It’s one thing to make a bad pizza but to consistently make it inedible on an international scale violates the UN’s Universal Doctrine on Human Rights. ANYWAYS, more likely I’ll be rooting for a push on this bet, and I can wipe my hands clean of this one. Eventually, I will provide context for my deep-seated yet justifiable disdain of Louisville.

Boston College (3-3) O 5.5

This bet and head coach Jeff Hafley’s job security is going to come down to the wire. The Eagles need to get to bowl eligibility and with 6 games left, flip a coin to see if they do. At Georgia Tech, at Syracuse, at Pitt, and Virginia Tech are toss-up games, while they’re likely to beat UConn and lose to Miami at home. The Eagles' week 1 overtime loss to Northern Illinois was not very helpful for this one, but they’ve rebounded nicely beating Army and Virginia in the past couple of weeks.

Florida (5-2) U 5.5

This one is as good as dead, but there’s more hope than you’d think of Florida not winning another game. Credit to head coach Billy Napier for turning Wisconsin run-off QB Graham Mertz into one of the most efficient QBs in the nation thus far, but Florida has five games left and four of them are currently ranked teams in Georgia, at LSU, at Mizzou, and Florida State. This one might come down to if Arkansas can knock off the Gators in the Swamp. I know Tate will be happier than a pig in shit if this happens.

Michigan State (2-4) U 5.5

Did I predict that former head coach Mel Tucker would blow $77 million dollars and get fired for cause in the middle of the season by sexually harassing sexual abuse prevention advocate Brenda Tracy? No, but I did predict they would suck which can only mean I am a deity and request to be buried with chocolates from Brussels, tulips from Holland, and used astroturf pellets from Wake’s football stadium. Michigan State has six games left and guaranteed three more losses to Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State. Sorry Sparty.

UCLA (4-2) O 8.5

This one will be close but if UCLA wins the games they’re supposed to, I’ll be sitting prettier than the 3rd quarter sunset at the Rose Bowl. The Bruins need to win five of their last six games, but they’ll likely be favored in five. If their defense remains stout, and freshman phenom QB Dante Moore can find some consistency, they should be able to knock off Stanford, Colorado, both Arizona schools, and Cal, while @ USC will be a toss-up. It’ll be close but I am irrationally confident in this one.

Vanderbilt (2-6) O 3.5

Can I talk myself into Vanderbilt to pull off a massive upset as they have in the past two years? Let’s see…@ Ole Miss? Ole Miss will hang 50 on them so no. Home against Auburn who can’t do anything on offense except run the ball? Vandy hasn’t given up less than 127 rushing yards in a game since Week 0 against Hawai’i so no. @ South Carolina? Vanderbilt can’t stop the pass either and South Carolina averages over 300 yards/game so another no. Finally, @ Tennessee? Tennessee isn’t losing in Rocky Top, especially against this Vandy team. Oh wait, Vandy needs to win TWO of these? Oy vey.

TCU (4-3) O 7.5

This doesn’t look half bad, good job Rand. TCU looked really good against BYU last weekend and might be hitting their stride. Baylor and Texas Tech are trainwrecks and a toss-up game against Kansas State looms this weekend. Alright, I buried the lede, they still have to play Texas and Oklahoma. Goodnight.

Wake Forest (3-3) O 6.5

Six games left, three of them against ranked teams (FSU, at Duke, at Notre Dame), two unranked teams that have at least a Pop Warner defense in Pittsburgh and NC State, and a Thanksgiving visit to the house of horrors that is Syracuse. Take my money Vegas, but the bills will be soggy from wiping off my tears.

Texas (5-1) U 9.5

This was my last-second flier pick as the Texas under has hit 12 of the past 13 years. The Longhorns have 6 games left, and only one opponent has a losing record, but none of them are ranked. Mood:

Tate’s Great Picks

Vanderbilt (2-6) O 3.5

Rand and I both thought this Vanderbilt team was primed for yet another step forward after the ‘Dores went 2-10 in Clark Lea’s first year in 2021 then jumped to 5-7 with 2 SEC wins in 2022. Vandy brought back its starting QB, two best playmakers, and a solid defense that added former top-end recruit Prince Kollie as a transfer from Notre Dame. But because I bet on them to win 4 games, they lost to UNLV and likely won’t even get three wins now. That’s my year in a nutshell.

Northwestern (3-3) U 2.5

Just a bad bet. After going 1-11 in 2022, Northwestern’s offseason was filled with turmoil as beloved long-time Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired amid a hazing scandal in the program, that was followed by an administrative PR nightmare by both supporters and critics of the firing. Somehow, these nerds have improved their win total by two games only halfway through the season. Whatever man.

Ohio (5-2) O 6.5

I feel very confident about this one, even after Ohio threw three INTs in the 4th quarter against Northern Illinois last weekend and blew a chance to move to 6-1. But the Bobcats are one of the best teams in the MAC and I fully expect this team to get to 7 wins sooner rather than later.

Colorado State (3-3) O 4.5

Another one I’m feeling good about. I thought I might steal a win in week 3 in that insane overtime game against Deion’s Colorado team/reality television cast, but the Rams fell short. Luckily, Colorado State stole a win back after their insane hail mary completion to beat Boise State last week which we talked about on Monday. The Rams look like a solid team and only need two more wins over their final six games - pretty sure we’ll hit.

Louisville (6-1) O 8

I think we’re going to hit here, but it’s not a done deal after the Cards got whooped by a below-average Pitt team to take their first loss of the season last week. Still, Louisville only needs three more wins in their next five games, and two of them are against Virginia and Virginia Tech, who are both lower-tier teams in the ACC (with Virginia being easily the worst team in the league). I’ll be very interested in this one down the stretch.

Georgia (7-0) O 11.5

The Dawgs going 12-0 in the regular season for the third straight year was always going to come down to the end stretch of the schedule, so I can’t really say I feel better or worse. After this week’s bye, the Dawgs play Florida in Jacksonville, #20 Missouri and #13 Ole Miss in Athens, and then travel to Knoxville to play #19 Tennessee. Tough stretch, and even tougher without TE Brock Bowers who likely won’t be back in time for any of those games. Still, even though the Dawgs have looked a little unimpressive at times, we will likely be two-possession favorites in all of the remainder of our regular season games. 12-0 still looks like a probability.

NC State (4-3) O 6.5

Yeahhh this one is probably toast. I thought NC State’s offense would look a lot better than it has, and the Wolfpack still have to play Clemson, Miami, and #10 UNC in their final five games. Crazier things have happened, but I think this one is screwed.

Illinois (3-4) O 6.5

This one is also likely boned. I did not expect the Illini defense to fall off a total cliff after being one of the best in the country in 2022, but here we are. Any Big Ten West game is a toss-up, so while this one isn’t 100% done yet, you usually don’t win all of your toss-ups. Losing to a horrible Nebraska team at home really screwed me here. Oh well. This is why you can’t ever believe in northerners.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (7-0): The Dawgs are on a bye, which could not be coming at a better time after UGA made it official and announced that Brock Bowers underwent his tightrope surgery to treat his high ankle sprain and will be out for 4-6 weeks. Bobo and the offensive staff have a free extra week of practice to come up with some different looks and game plans to get other playmakers the ball as defenses won’t have to commit so much effort to stopping Bowers. Oscar Delp, a true sophomore, is certainly not Brock and he really struggled as an inline blocker at times this season, but he is uber-athletic, and he has looked a ton more comfortable as a blocker over the past two games. True freshman Lawson Luckie will move into the TE2 role - Luckie received a ton of hype in fall camp, before suffering a high ankle sprain of his own, and is just getting worked back into playing time after having the same tightrope surgery that Brock underwent on Monday.

Side note: If you see anybody suggesting that Brock Bowers may elect to forego the rest of this year and just focus on the NFL Draft, let me make it very f*cking clear that they do not know who Brock Bowers is. They have not watched him hurl his body at defender after defender to gain 3 extra yards. They have not watched him put 275-pound men in the dirt as a blocker even though the play is on the other side of the field. This kid is a relentless machine, and his family has made it abundantly clear that he got the surgery as soon as possible so he could return to play for the Dawgs as soon as possible. This injury will not allow Bowers to complete a historical statistical season, but the legend of Brock Bowers may reach unseen heights the moment he steps back on the field to help lead us to a three-peat. Have faith, Bulldog nation. He will Rise.

Wake Forest (3-3): The Deacs return to Winston and look to snap their three-game skid and fix their offensive woes at 3:30pm against Pitt (2-4) on the ACC Network. Wake Forest is a 1.5 favorite, and the O/U is set at 46.5.

When it rains it pours. Looks like my quick background on assumed starting QB Michael Kern was a bit premature given he will be out for the next couple of weeks due to an injury sustained late in the Virginia Tech game. To make matters worse, on Tuesday Clawson said, “Mitch took some shots. We’re not 100 percent sure of his availability. We’re going to let the week play out and see where we are…We’ll see where we are on Saturday.” Encouraging. So let’s check the depth chart and see what we know about this kid named Santino Marucci who started the season as QB3 on the depth chart.

Marucci is a 6’1 217lb redshirt sophomore from Jacksonville, Florida, and came out of Bartam Trail High School as a three-star pro-style quarterback. He committed to Wake while holding offers from Kentucky, Nebraska, Cincy, and App State among others. Marucci played six snaps and didn’t attempt a pass against Norfolk State in 2021 but didn’t appear in a game last year. He ran for 1,500 yards in high school, but the body of work is exactly what you’d expect from a third stringer. Incomplete & drab. Wake Forest beat writer Les Johns said on the DDD message boards, “Based on what I saw in camp (which seems meaningless six games in) Tyler Mizzell looked the best of those behind Kern. Marucci seemingly had more balls caught by defenders than by receivers.” For context, Tyler Mizzell is a true freshman QB from East Lincoln High School in Denver, NC, and hasn’t been traveling with the team for road games so we will not be seeing him on Saturday.

No matter who is playing QB for the Deacs, they still have to beat a Pitt team who might be in the midst of their best Oklahoma State impression after starting the season looking like a beached whale but just beat a previously undefeated Louisville team 38-21. Boston College transfer QB Phil Jurkovec did not work out, so they made a QB switch to Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux who went 12/26 for 200 yards and 2 TDs. Not inspiring, but immensely better than what they had with Jurkovec which is saying something with that stat line. You know which team also switched QBs a few games before playing Wake and turned around their offensive outlook? Virginia Tech. After beating Wofford to open the season, Pitt lost four in a row to West Virginia, Cincinnati, UNC, and Virginia Tech before their aforementioned win over the Cards. Make no mistake, Veilleux was below-average last week, and Pitt largely won thanks to three Louisville turnovers. To put into perspective how bad this offense has been, they are among the bottom three teams in the ACC in the following offensive categories: Total yds/game, passing yds/game, rushing yds/game, and points/game. As expected under head coach Pat Narduzzi, their defense is good if not very good. The Panthers are 4th in the conference with 20 sacks and 5th in the ACC only giving up 323 yards/game.

The Panthers and the Deacs have only played twice in the history of the universe. The first time was in 2018 when the Panthers won 34-13. Three years later they met in the ACC Championship where future Farmer Wants a Wife participant QB Kenny Pickett torched the Deacs, fake slid (which would later be deemed illegal), and led the Panthers to the title. Thanks to ridiculous ACC scheduling matrixes the Deacs have never been to Heinz Field, or whatever horrendous corporate name it goes by now. While we’re on the topic, thank God the ACC got rid of divisions and moved to a more flexible scheduling model even with the additions of Cal, Stanford, and SMU because another absurd example of this scheduling imbalance is the Miami Hurricanes haven’t come to Winston since 2009 or played outright since 2013, both of which predate Clawson’s tenure.

This Pitt game might approach Iowa levels of unwatchableness (is that a word? idc), and my expectations are in the gutter, so I am willing, able, and eager to be pleasantly surprised! Need I remind everyone what happened the last time our QB got injured and an inexperienced guy from Jacksonville, FL was thrust into action? Yes, this is an apples and oranges comparison but I’m referencing Riley Skinner the year we went to the Orange Bowl back in 2006. Deacs by a billion. With a B!

Tate’s Great Picks (11-26)

Alright people, my picks have been so horrid and mathematically improbable this season that I’ve decided to shake things up. I’ve gotten tired of getting things wrong and having to write about it every damn week, so I wanted to see if my wonderful girlfriend Diva, who does not know much at all about college football, can do any better. I gave Diva a list of five games and their spreads and asked her to make her picks based on anything she wanted to. Did she have a cousin go to a certain school? Pick them then. Does she prefer a mascot or color? Go for it. It’d be hard to do worse than I’ve done so far, so f*ck it, who cares. Here’s how it went:

#7 Penn State (6-0) @ #3 Ohio State (6-0): OSU -4.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Diva’s pick - Penn State +4.5: “Penn State +4.5 because Ohio State sucks.”

#14 Utah (5-1) @ #18 USC (6-1): USC -6.5, O/U 56 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

Diva’s pick - Utah +6.5: “Utah +6.5 because I enjoy the Real Housewives of Salt Lake City, and you should too.”

#13 Ole Miss (5-1) @ Auburn (3-3): Ole Miss -6.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 7:00 ET ESPN

Diva’s pick - Ole Miss -6.5: “Ole Miss covers because I’m just a ‘Go Rebs’ type of girl.

Clemson (4-2) @ Miami (4-2): Clemson -3.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Diva’s pick - Miami ML: “Miami wins because of the Alix Earle effect?”

#17 Tennessee (5-1) @ #11 Alabama (6-1): Bama -9.5, O/U 48 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Diva’s pick - Tennessee +9.5: “Tennessee because fuck Alabama.” (good woman)

I’m very, very interested to see how Diva’s picks go this weekend. If she does better than I have thus far, she’ll be back next week, because I simply have to ride any hot hand I can find at this point. If I’ve rubbed off on her and she fails miserably, tune in next week to see a video of my puppy Lottie making picks for me. I’m not kidding.

OnlyRans (28-31)

#17 Tennessee (5-1) @ #11 Alabama (6-1): Bama -9.5, O/U 48 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick - Game Total Under 48: Two offensively challenged teams and the inferior team of the two have to go into the best environment in the SEC which also happens to possess an elite defense. Tide will roll but I like the under.

Minnesota (3-3) @ #24 Iowa (6-1): Iowa -3.5, O/U 31.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Game Total Under 31.5: We might be approaching free money territory with Iowa unders given how elite their defense is. I don’t think Vegas has the cajones to set a college football O/U at 28, but if they did, I’d still take the under. Unless Iowa pulls some special teams and defensive touchdowns out of their hat, I don’t see either team scoring more than 2 TDs each.

UCF (3-3) @ #6 Oklahoma (6-0): OU -18.5, O/U 66.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Pick - Oklahoma -18.5: Both of these offenses average over 500 yards/game and 35+ points/game which is especially impressive for UCF who has done it with QB John Rhys Plumlee who is set to return after missing the past four games with a leg injury. The problem is Oklahoma’s defense is elite, only gives up 14 points/game, and excels at stopping the run where UCF is most dangerous. Boomer.

Oklahoma State (4-2) @ West Virginia (4-2): WVU -3.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Oklahoma State +3.5: The Pokes are hitting their offensive stride at the right time while WVU is coming off a brutal hail mary loss to an inferior Houston squad. I like the half-point hook here to push it over a field goal, and I expect the more experienced OSU QB Alan Bowman to outduel Neers QB Garrett Greene who ‘leads’ a vertically challenged offense.

Texas Tech (3-4) @ BYU (4-2): TTU -3.5, O/U 51 - Saturday 7:00pm ET FS1

Pick - BYU +3.5: I’m not really understanding why Texas Tech is favored here but my hunch is people overreacting to BYU’s shellacking to TCU last weekend. Provo is a really hard place to as the entire fanbase is hyped up on cotton candy and Diet Coke or whatever Mormons are permitted to consume, so give me the Cougs at home.

Mississippi State (3-3) @ Arkansas (2-5): Arkansas -6, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Arkansas -6: It’s desperation time for the Razorbacks and head coach Sam Pittman who might be escorted to the slaughterhouse if he doesn’t win this one. Mississippi State’s defense is among the worst in the SEC in almost every stat while Arkansas’ offense is experienced, efficient, and explosive. I’m calling the hogs on this one. Woooooooooo, Pig! Sooie!

SMU (4-2) @ Temple (2-5): SMU -20.5, O/U 55 - Friday 7:00pm ET ESPN2

Pick - SMU -20.5: Temple just got plastered by a bleh/meh/.500 North Texas team and now has to face an elite offense in SMU who need to keep pace with Memphis and Tulane in the American.

South Carolina (2-4) @ Missouri (6-1): Mizzou -7, O/U 60 - Saturday 3:30pm ET SECN

Pick - Game Total over 60: South Carolina is dead last in the SEC giving up 321.7 passing yards/game and has to face an aerial assault the likes of which the country has never seen! Alright maybe an exaggeration but this game will be a defense optional track meet between two great quarterbacks.

Utah (5-1) @ USC (6-1): USC -6.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Game Total under 53.5: Utah’s defense gave USC nightmares twice last year but has an Iowa-level offense, keeps rotating QBs like it’s a ferris wheel, and is currently playing a free safety at running back due to injuries. Even if USC explodes for 35 points, I don’t see Utah scoring more than a few touchdowns.

Arizona State (1-5) @ #5 Washington (6-0): Wash -26.5, O/U 60 - Saturday 10:30pm ET FS1

Pick - Arizona State +26.5: Am I really advising you to put money on a 1-5 team against the best offense in the nation? Absolutely, and as I’ve proven the entire season, you’d be a fool not to listen to me. The Sun Devils gave Colorado and USC absolute fits on both sides of the ball, and I think Washington sleepwalks through this game after all the hype from last week's win over Oregon.

For my moneyline upsets of the week, give me Miami ML and Penn State ML. I think Clemson’s offense is actually really, really bad and Miami’s offensive and defensive lines are talented enough to match up with the Tigers. I reserve the right to cancel this bet if Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke doesn’t play but Cristobal said ‘he’s ready to roll.’ As for Penn State, does this directly contradict my prediction up top? Yes, but that was just to fade Tate. This is the money-making section, and much like USC had been walking on eggshells all season and finally broke down against Notre Dame, I think Ohio State’s inability to run the ball gets exposed against the NFL-level Penn State defensive front. Penn State is more balanced, and I don’t love the idea of Kyle McCord having to put this game on his back. I reserve the right to look like an absolute moron when Marvin Harrison Jr. goes off with 15 catches for 250 yards and 3 TDs.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: I will be in good ole Winston-Salami, North Cackalacky taking in the impeccable beauty and ambiance of Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium on a brisk, sunny fall afternoon. Note how I didn’t mention anything about how I expect the game to go. Go Deacs.

TS: I am off to Austin, Texas to attend my very good friend (and 4th & Forever reader) Alex Sztejenberg’s wedding. About 18 months ago, after Alex proposed to his lovely soon-to-be-wife Megan, he started texting me asking how confident I was that the Georgia bye week would indeed be this weekend and he’d be safe to plan his wedding for this Saturday because he is a good man with his priorities in order. Thankfully we nailed it. On top of that, he has allocated some time for me to watch some of the Rutgers/Indiana game at noon before the service on Saturday, because he truly is just a tremendous guy, and I can’t wait to celebrate with him.

Hope you have an extraordinary weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.