Welcome to 4th & Forever

Hello and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. You know as well as anyone that there’s nothing we enjoy talking about more than College Football, which is why we started this newsletter and want to share our thoughts and opinions with you. You can expect game previews & recaps, betting picks, updates on CFB current events, and other random stuff we find enjoyable.

With the first games less than a week away, we figured we'd go ahead and put our embarrassing amount of college football knowledge and takes to good use. Below, you will find Rand and Tate's top 10 reasons to be excited and interested about our favorite dumb sport this season. We have also included some preseason O/U totals that you guys can jump on before the season kicks off. Without further ado, let's get to it!

Rand’s Top 10 Reasons to Watch CFB in 2023

1. The Pac-12 of all conferences has the best collection of QBs in the country: Michael Penix Jr., Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, DJ Uiagalelei (Aidan Chiles might win the job), Cam Rising, Cam Ward, Jaden Rashada (NIL Darling), Dante Moore (5* Freshmen at UCLA), Shedeur Sanders. RIP to the Pac-12 after this year…enjoy it while it lasts. On the flip-side the SEC has the most unproven collection of QB’s in the country which is unusual because I think Stetson, Bryce Young and Will Levis were in school for decades.

2. Realignment should calm down…for now. Florida State’s saber-rattling over trying to leave the ACC even though they are 26-33 in the ACC and checks notes 0-3 vs WF in the past 3 years is comical. I genuinely hope it does. I really could care less if Cal & Stanford join the ACC - which is the only foreseeable move at this point - this entire process sucks for everyone.

3. Shocking FCS Upsets. Pay attention to Richmond @ Michigan State, Eastern Kentucky @ Cincy, Idaho @ Cal, North Carolina Central @ UCLA, and Southeastern LA @ Mississippi State. Last year, Southern Illinois beat Northwestern, Delaware beat Navy, among others which means we are due for an App State - Michigan or NDSU - Iowa (2016). I am manifesting it.

4. Nepotism King Brian Ferentz. This plotline will be plastered on ESPN for the entire season so prepare yourself now. The OC of Iowa and son of the unfireable HC Kirk is probably the worst OC in the history of football. He has been so bad in recent years that there’s a new clause in his contract that if Iowa doesn’t average 25 ppg (non-offensive scores included) and win 7 games, which will be easy with their ridiculously good defense, he will be fired. Last year, they averaged 17.7 ppg and 14.5 ppg when you take out non-offensive touchdowns. Iowa runs their football program like the mafia.

5. Random nonconference matchups. I personally think it’s really fun when two of the most random teams you can think of play each other. Good luck to the Gators who have to go to Utah at night Week 1. Please tell me why the Auburn AD thought it would be a good idea to schedule a home & home with…Cal? Wisconsin is going to Pullman, WA? Sure. Oregon in Lubbock, TX and UCF on the Smurf Turf? Why not? Only in college football does it make sense seeing Mormons (BYU) intentionally travel to Fayetteville, Arkansas. Woo Pig.

6. Shitty teams that think they should be Bama. Texas A&M is paying Jimbo Fisher $100 million to suck, but thank god he finally relinqushed play-calling duties in favor of new OC Bobby Petrino. Sidenote: go look up their DC DJ Durkin and his time at Maryland. Killer staff they’ve assembled in College Station. USC has the reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams who also happens to be the best NFL QB prospect since…Andrew Luck? However, they also lost in the Cotton Bowl to Tulane thanks to their JV-level defense. Worst move of the offseason might prove to be Lincoln Riley not firing DC Alex Grinch and hiring legitimately anyone else. Texas thinks they have Jesus playing QB for them year (Quinn Ewers) and this is definitely their year! I don’t believe HC Steve Sarkisian has the coaching and playcalling ability to go toe-to-toe with the Bama’s of the world who they happen to play in Tuscaloosa this year so we will certainly see.

7. New Coaches. Aside from the obvious answer of Deion Sanders at Colorado - an SEC school sold their already feckless souls for a slimeball who came from Liberty, but got fired from his first SEC job for paying recruits and using his work phone to order strippers? Auburn & Hugh Freeze are back baby!! Wisconsin decided it’s time to stop using their offensive playbook from 1957 and hire Luke Fickell and OC Phil Longo (formerly at UNC) who plan to wow the Badger faithful with forward passes. Trent Dilfer is coaching at UAB and his only previous coaching experience is at a Tennessee high school. NFL flameout Matt Rhule is the sixth coach since Tom Osborne retired in 1997 who has the honor of trying to restore Nebraska to national prominence. Let’s start with making a bowl game first which hasn’t happened since 2016.

8. Second year coaches who need a big year. Billy Napier at Florida and Mario Cristobal at Miami are killing it on the recruiting trail right now, but both need to show any form of life after brutal first years which included losses to Vandy and MTSU respectively. Florida State supposedly being back doesn’t help either. Brent Venables was the gold standard of assistants while the Clemson DC for years and in year 1 came and lost 49-0 to Texas. Marcus Freeman lost to Stanford & Marshall and barely beat Cal & Navy in his first year. He really needs the Sam Hartman experiment to work this year.

9. The under & overachievers. Every year for the past 25 years, at least one team has started unranked and finished in the Top 10 and one preseason Top 10 team has finished the season unranked. The unpredictability and volatility of CFB is what makes the sport so unique and you rarely get Cinderella’s in the NFL or massive busts unless it’s the Cowboys. My prediction for underachiever this year is preseason #9 Florida State and overachiever will be Kentucky.

10. I can finally stop watching the f***ing LLWS.

Tate’s Top 10 Reasons to Watch CFB in 2023

1. On top of the quarterbacks and awesome offensive skill talent in the PAC-12, it is also, unfortunately, the last year of the league. Enjoy USC, Oregon, Washington, Utah, and the rest of the league fight for the last PAC-12 title, ever. It is going to be an awesome race, full of late-night action of teams with truly dynamic offenses, filled with matchups that we may not get to see again for some time. Root for Wazzu and Oregon State, because they don’t deserve what’s happening to them.

2. USC is back? FSU is back? Texas is back??? For years, the collective college football community has wanted to see these teams return to prominence. They’re often the answer to the question “College Football is better when ___ is good.” All three will begin the season in or near the top 10, and all three are serious CFP contenders.

3. The Big Ten East may not be as simple as Ohio State vs Michigan at the end of the year. New QB Drew Allar looks to vault Penn State into being something more than just a “good win” for OSU and UM. With three teams in the same division beginning the season in the top 10, the Big Ten East could have several big games that alter the course of the National Championship race.

4. Simply put, Alabama. It’s been nearly three years since Alabama last won a (mickey mouse) National Championship, and the Tide find themselves entering the season with the most amount of questions that we’ve ever seen in the Saban era. Do they have a QB? Can the Offensive Line run block? Do they have a difference maker on the DL? Are their ILB’s gonna be fat and slow again? Many are hesitant to believe that we may be at the end of era of the Bama Dynasty, but another year without a National Championship could push Saban closer to retirement. Especially because…

5. First 3-Peat ever? The Georgia Bulldogs are already the first team in the College Football Playoff era to win back to back National Championships, and now look to become the first team in college football history to win three straight. After breaking the single-team NFL draft record of 15 guys selected in 2022, this Dawgs roster may have even more than 15 guys drafted in April. A 3-Peat may be boring for the casual viewer, but the pursuit of something that has never been done before is always intriguing to me.

6. New QB’s. Outside of LSU, every team who has won a national championship in the CFP era will be breaking in a new QB this season. Alabama and Ohio State will be replacing the #1 and #2 overall picks in the NFL draft, while Georgia will be replacing the greatest quarterback who has ever lived. Clemson looks to replace a certified chode with DJU off to Oregon State (but Clemson sucks so whatever). These new QB’s on top teams will be very interesting to watch.

7. The Big 12 looks to be really competitive with some really good teams once again, and everyone will be gunning for Texas and Oklahoma in their last year in the league. TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech will all be really solid. The Big 12 stuck it to Texas on their way out the door by making them play at Houston, a program Texas has historically refused to play. The storylines will be good, the teams will be good, and there will be some anger and bitterness abound. We’re in for a great Big 12 year.

8. The 2023 Heisman Race may be a fun one. To be honest, I don’t really give a damn about the Heisman, but we’re in a position this year where there is really only one clear frontrunner at QB in Caleb Williams, and the Heisman obviously is very reluctant to give it to the same player twice (only one player has ever won the award twice). The Heisman has largely turned into a QB award these days, but players like Marvin Harrison Jr., Brock Bowers, Blake Corum, Quinshon Judkins, and other skill position guys could put up huge numbers and give us something other than an all-QB finalist list.

9. This is it. The last year of the conferences as we know them. The last year of divisions in most conferences. The last year of the 4 team playoff. The last year of the SEC on CBS. The last year before the B1G and the SEC create such a large annual gap in revenue from the rest of college football that only those two conferences can truly be considered “power” conferences. This is the last year of college football as we’ve come to know it, and I damn sure plan on enjoying it.

10. I can finally stop watching games from the mid-2010s.

OnlyRans Futures: Regular Season Win Totals

• Florida State U 9.5

  • There is A LOT of hype on FSU this year which is somewhat warranted (they return everyone and went 10-3 last year) but lost to the 3 good teams on their schedule. I’m predicting they lose to LSU (semi-neutral field in Orlando) and @ Clemson before September ends, which means they’d have to win every other game which includes vs Duke, @Wake, @Pitt, vs Miami, and @Florida. I’m just not a believer in historically inconsistent QB Jordan Travis leading this team to 10 wins.

• Louisville U 8

  • They finally got alumnus Jeff Brohm from Purdue but with that comes an entirely new offense & defense off an 8-5 from last year. They’re bringing in a QB (Jack - not Jake - Plummer) who played under Brohm at Purdue but he was as average as 6-5 white dudes come. 1 returning WR, lost all three starting LBs, but loaded up in the transfer portal (22 transfers including UNC DB Storm Duck who sucks) on offense and defense. They don’t draw Clemson or FSU but have a mid-year four-game stretch @ NC State, vs Notre Dame, @ Pitt, vs Duke then close @ Miami, vs Kentucky. Maybe Brohm is a miracle worker but I am suspicious.

• Boston College O 5.5

  • Should you bet the over on a team whose coach could get fired midseason, lost their starting QB to the portal (Phil Jurkovec to Pitt), 1st round WR (Zay Flowers), had one of the worst OLs in the country last season and finished 3-9? You Betcha! Their OL will improve with incoming transfers and All-ACC guard Christian Montogomery coming back from injury, their sophomore QB has game experience and beat NC State on the road last year, and they have an incredibly easy schedule. You’re telling me there’s not a slight chance they can’t win at least 6 of the following?: vs Northern Illinois (O/U 5.5), vs Holy Cross (FCS), vs Virginia (3.5), @ Army (6), @ Georgia Tech (4.5), vs UConn (4.5), @ Syracuse (6.5), vs Virginia Tech (5.5)?

• Florida U 5.5

  • I’m a long-term believer in coach Billy Napier if the boosters give him enough time. However, transfer QB Graham Mertz (Wisconsin) is not the answer at quarterback. After they beat McNeese State and Charlotte, they could lose every other game on their schedule. Absolutely brutal. Their Tom Petty ‘I Won’t Back Down’ mid-game singalong tradition is cool though.

• Michigan State U 5.5

  • They lost their starting QB (Payton Thorne - Auburn) and best WR (Keon Coleman - FSU) to the portal, ranked in the 100s in total defense the past two seasons, and draw Washington, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Assuming they defeat Central Michigan and Richmond at home and go beat Rutgers and Indiana on the road, you’re banking on them beating two of the following: vs Maryland, @ Minnesota, and vs Nebraska. They also brought in a transfer placekicker from UNC and we saw how that worked out for Ohio State last year against Georgia….sorry Noah Ruggles.

• UCLA O 8.5

  • Even after losing million year starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB, I am big believer in 5-star freshman Dante Moore at QB - assuming he wins the job. They’re solid everywhere else (transfer RB Carson Steele from Ball State is a name to watch) but this is betting on Moore winning the job and living up to the hype. On top of that, outside of playing @ Utah and @ USC, their schedule is very, very manageable.

• Vanderbilt O 3.5

  • Clark Lea - former Wake LB coach and Notre Dame DC - knows what he is doing and I am bullish on Vandy’s future. They took a step forward last year by beating Florida and Kentucky en route to going 5-7 (up from 2-10 in 2021). Their non-conference schedule is vs. Hawai’i, vs Alabama A&M, @ Wake (loss), and @ UNLV. They draw Kentucky, Mizzou, and Auburn at home and @ Florida. They will hit the over here before the end of September.

• TCU O 7.5

  • This team was a few plays away from winning the national championship last year and their O/U is 7.5??? Okay, the first part might not be true, but they cleaned up in the portal (read: key transfers from Bama) and their QB Chandler Morris was supposed to start ahead of Max Duggan before he got injured in the opener. They should cakewalk through September sitting at 5-0 before the meat of their schedule.

• Wake Forest O 6.5

  • Lock of the year alert! Keep betting against Dave Clawson at your own risk. After NFL backup God John Wolford left, everyone thought we were screwed by putting in a lanky 90-pound 2-star freshman Sam Hartman under center, then he got injured mid-season and we were screwed again until future Georgia Football legend Jamie Newman came in and ended up on Heisman Watch columns, and now we're screwed because Sam Hartman left for Notre Dame. No….we’re not. Mitch ‘Money’ Griffis has been at Wake for over 3 years, we have one of the deepest WR rooms in the country (even with the Donavon Greene injury news), return most of our OL and RBs, and key pieces from an admittedly porous defense. Another year under DC Brad Lambert's system should help. While the schedule is tough (Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame), Clawson should keep us bowling for the 8th straight year and we will improve upon our 1-3 record in one-score games from last year where we went 8-5. TBH I am a little surprised the O/U isn’t set at 14.5 in which I’d still bet the over.

  • Bonus: Texas U 9.5 - Texas’ under has hit 12 of the last 13 years

Tate’s Eight: Regular Season Win Total Overs

Vandy O 3.5

Lock of the year. They’ll be done with this by early October.

Northwestern U 2.5

This team went 1-11 last year and then lost their long-time head coach in the middle of the summer. They are going to get beat by 40+ several times this year.

Ohio O 6.5

Kurtis Roarke at QB is all you need to know. He’s coming off an ACL tear, but he’ll be the best QB in the league for a team that won 10 games last season. I have no idea why this total is so low.

Colorado State O 4.5

Sprinkling some juice on CSU to win MWC (+4000) as well.

Louisville O 8

Unlike Rand, I think Brohm is an elite play caller who will have this team ready to go. They avoid FSU, Clemson, and Drake Maye and UNC. I’m pretty sure they’re going to start at least 4-0 as well. I’m all over this.

Georgia O 11.5

While it’s hard to predict a third straight 12-0 regular season for anybody, this is the most talented team in college football with one of the easiest SEC schedules humanly possible. This over will likely come down to the game @Tennessee on 11/18. I need to see the Vols show they can hang with Georgia at the line of scrimmage before I ever predict a Dawgs L there. Dawgs are going 12-0 again.

NC State O 6.5

Brother I am HAMMERING this one. New offensive coordinator Robert Anae and new Quarterback Brennan Armstrong put up ridiculous numbers in 2021, and they’re now reunited on a team where the offense has been the only thing holding them back. This is one of the more talented teams in the ACC, and I think they’re closer to a 9 win team than a 6 win team.

Illinois O 6.5

One of the best defensive lines in the game, an OL that returns most of its top talent, a coach who has won big in the B1G, and a new quarterback who is more talented than the one that won Illinois 8 games last year. The Illini are going to win the B1G West this year.

Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward to friends & family. If there’s anyone who we’re missing please let us know and reach out to us with comments on this project. Talk to you again Thursday.