Week 9 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. In this edition, we’re airing our grievances about the state of Florida, previewing a massive Pac-12 matchup, and discussing Michigan’s moral compass, or lack thereof. We’re also talking about Oompa Loompas, Santa, and which American city smells like sewage, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Michigan Scandal

Rand here, and I would like to formally apologize for my irresponsible, egregious, and reprehensible comment in last week’s newsletter where I said, “Go Blue - 4th & Forever supports you.” It was ill-advised of me to assume Michigan was morally superior to Michigan State who had players charged with assault in last year's contest, fired a coach who was sexually harassing a sexual abuse prevention advocate, showed Hitler on their video board last weekend, and employed Larry Nassar for 19 years. And yet, never count out the University of Michigan for tarnishing any ethical and moral high ground they claimed to have held.

Roughly three hours after we published the newsletter last Thursday, a report surfaced that Michigan staffer Conor Stallions has been purchasing tickets at college football stadiums around the country and filming opponents himself or sending other people in an effort to steal their signs and play calls. Disclaimer: if other coaches are tasked with buying tickets on the 50-yard line, close to the field, and need people to film the games, we at 4th & Forever retract our apology, and our lines are open.

Anyways, this is Tate now, and I’d like to make my opinion on the matter very clear here: What Michigan is accused of doing is blatant cheating. I have seen many people, even some of our readers here at 4th & Forever, say that they aren’t too bothered by what Michigan has been doing due to some version of “all teams try to steal signs.” That is very true - in any given game, every single football team will probably have a staff member(s) dedicated to trying to figure out if the opposing team is tipping anything with their signals if there are any patterns regarding signs given or personnel groups that indicate what the offense is likely running. That is not against the rules, that’s just a guy on 2nd base figuring out the catcher’s signals, or the dugout figuring out that a pitcher is tipping pitches. But having a staff member (or somebody the staff member has hired) go to opposing teams' games for several years, weeks before you play said team, and sitting behind the bench to record the future opponent's signals, to then take back to practice to analyze and prepare for weeks, is strictly against NCAA rules, and goes way beyond the “well everybody tries to do it” version of what everyone actually does. This is the Astros, and we all know how everybody feels about what the Astros did.

Clemson under DC and now Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables were masters at figuring out what the opposing offenses were running and making pre-snap adjustments. He’s never been accused of cheating, but offenses were aware of this and simply…changed their signs. It’s part of the game if it’s done legally and by all accounts, Clemson was doing it within the rulebook. The funny part about this whole cheating fiasco is, more often than not, it doesn’t work. It’s an unfair competitive advantage sure, but you still have to line up and stop the run or pick up the blitz. Remember that 0-0 Frank Beamer picture we referenced a few weeks ago? Virginia Tech had Wake’s entire playbook thanks to the WakeyLeaks scandal and still lost. That same year, Army’s DC Jay Bateman was sent Wake’s playbook but lost too. Sidenote: Bateman was later hired at a similar to Michigan morally frivolous institution but fired because he sucked. That school was, of course, UNC. We digress, but you get the point. Cheating is bad. Don’t listen to the predominantly large, state universities who claim they are ‘above it’ as Harbaugh did in his press conference earlier this year as he returned from his three-game suspension for violating NCAA recruiting rules. This (well maybe not this) happens everywhere, but only the idiots get caught.

3 Week 9 Games to Watch

#6 Oklahoma (7-0) @ Kansas (5-2): OU -10.0, O/U 66 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

If you like high-scoring football with tons of absurd plays, boy do we have the game for you to kick off your Saturday with. Oklahoma beat Texas in a classic Red River Rivalry game two weeks ago but struggled mightily to beat a below-average UCF team last week in Norman, needing a stop on a two-point conversion with a minute left to pull a victory out. The Sooners are still the leaders at the turn in the Big 12, but they are far from unbeatable and still seem to be struggling defensively against good, fast, creative offenses. Kansas brings their good, fast, creative offense into this game in hopes of pulling off the biggest upset in the program’s recent history, and we think they’ve got a damn solid shot at it. The Jayhawks will likely be without starting QB Jalon Daniels, who has missed the last several weeks due to a back injury, but don’t let that fool you - backup QB Jason Bean is one of the best backups in the country, and his ability as a runner is exactly what Oklahoma struggled with last week. This Sooner team is ripe for an upset at some point soon, and Kansas has the ability to pull it off. Grab a beer, plop down on your couch, and get ready for some explosive plays. This game will be, if nothing else, really fun.

#8 Oregon (6-1) @ #13 Utah (6-1): Oregon -6.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

For weeks, everyone had their eyes glued to Oregon, Washington, USC, and even Colorado in the PAC 12 race, and everyone has largely ignored the fact that two-time defending conference champion Utah has clawed their way to 6-1 with essentially no quarterback play at all. The Utes are continuously disrespected - every year we do the same thing, and every year Utah kicks everybody’s ass down the stretch of the season. This Oregon team seems different this year, though, and the Ducks are favored by nearly a touchdown despite the fact that QB Bo Nix has been notoriously worse when he plays away from home in his career, Nix has thrown for 51 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions at home, while throwing for only 36 touchdowns and 20 interceptions away from home. While that has improved this season, if there is a team that can bring him back down to reality, it’s Utah.

The Ducks and the Utes are two of five schools battling for a shot at the PAC 12 title game, both teams play very hard and are extremely well-coached, and this game has given us some shocking results in recent years. As we often like to point out, this will be your last chance to see this matchup for quite a while before Oregon heads to the Big Ten and Utah heads to the Big 12 starting next season. Tune in, because this is big-time West Coast football at its best, and the stakes couldn’t be much higher.

Tate’s prediction: Oregon wins 31-13. Utah will keep it close with their physicality for 3 quarters, but their inability to move the ball will become more pronounced as the game goes on and Oregon will put them safely away in the 4th.

Rand’s prediction: Utah wins 29-27. Utah last lost at Rice-Eccles Stadium in 2020 when fans weren’t allowed. Before that, it was 2018. Every single time we (read: me) count out the Utes for not having an offense, not being talented, whatever excuse I have, they end up winning.

#20 Duke (5-2) @ #18 Louisville (6-1): Lou -4.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

The chess match between Mike Elko and Duke’s defense versus Jeff Brohm and Louisville's offense will be worth the mid-afternoon watch here. We just hope neither coach pulls a Hans Niemann and cheats in a similar manner. After reinjuring his ankle in the loss to Florida State, QB Riley Leonard’s status is a cryptic ‘day-to-day.’ Before he got hurt in the third quarter, his stat line was an unimpressive 7/16 for 69 yards and 1 interception, but Duke was up 20-17. Duke has less confidence in their backup QB than Tate does in his bets. Once Henry Belin IV came in, he went 1/6 passing for 7 yards. Coupled with his start against NC State and removing his mop-up duty against Lafayette, his season stat line is 5/18 for 114 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick. Inspiring.

Sam Bankman-Fried blushed when he saw how fraudulent Louisville looked against Pittsburgh in their 38-21 loss. That was two weeks ago, so we’re interested to see if it was a one-off result or a sign of things to come for the Cards. QB Jack Plummer blew up for 2 picks and a fumble which - not to toot our own horn - predicted would happen eventually because he sucks. WR Jamari Thrash does not suck but RB Jawhar Jordan is questionable after a hamstring injury cost him almost all of the Pitt game. This Duke defense is tough as nails, but Louisville is really creative on offense and can scheme around it. The winner here is in the driver’s seat for an ACC Championship appearance against FSU.

6 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

Clemson (4-3) @ NC State (4-3): Clem -10.0, O/U 44 - Saturday 2:00pm ET The CW

Offensively, this game might be like watching a car crash, but don’t feel ashamed, we can’t look away either. ESPN opting for Virginia-Miami and UNC-Georgia Tech on the ACCN over this game - which will be shown on The CW - tells you everything you need to know here. Excluding Syracuse, Clemson is averaging 17 points/game in ACC play, and their best WR Antonio Williams will not be playing. ‘Best’ is misleading as we really mean the least shitty out of their island of misfit toys they try to pass off as D1 receivers. We’re interested to see how Clemson’s run game holds up against State’s vaunted run defense led by LB Payton Wilson. Dabo and QB Cade Klubnik have shown nothing over the past year and a half to lead us to believe an offensive outburst is on the horizon so this game will be won or lost with RBs Will Shipley and Phil Mafa.

State QB MJ Morris was named the starter after much-hyped transfer Brennan Armstrong was benched for poor and inconsistent performance to start the year. Ironically, Morris’ two-game tenure has resulted in poorer and more inconsistent performance. He threw for 4 touchdowns and 265 yards but 3 INTs against a very good Marshall defense, cool whatever, but was held to less than 200 yards, no touchdowns, and 1 INT against Duke as he led the Pack to not one, not two, but three entire points. State had two weeks to prep for this game, but Clemson’s defense is not who you want to be facing if you’re trying to find your offensive footing. Just ask Wake Forest.

BYU (5-2) @ #7 Texas (6-1): Texas -18, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Texas hosts the 5-2 BYU Cougars in Austin on Saturday, but don’t let the record deceive you, BYU probably isn’t very good. The only team with a winning record they’ve faced is Kansas where they lost by 11. The reason this game is interesting is because Texas QB Quinn Ewers will miss this game due to a shoulder injury he sustained last week. It’s unclear when Ewers will return, but he’s likely missing next week's massive game against Kansas State, so this is our first real opportunity to get a look at second-string Maalik Murphy. If you dive into Ewers's numbers on the year, they’ve been pretty average, because UT’s run game behind Jonathon Brooks masks the offensive shortcomings…or maybe Ewers just isn’t that good. Everyone is raving about Murphy’s potential, but the only data point they have is how well he played in the spring game. Give us a break, we both passed the driver’s test when we were 16, but that doesn’t make us good drivers.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said Murphy and third string phenom Arch Manning will both get reps in practice this week, but Murphy will start. In our armchair coach's opinion, it would behoove Murphy to play well against BYU and not give Arch the opportunity to sniff the field because if Manning completes a 10-yard pass, the UT fanbase is good to lose their minds and demand he starts against K-State and potentially even when Ewers returns. If you thought Deion and Colorado caused a media frenzy, lest we forget we’re talking about the University of Texas and a Manning here.

#21 Tennessee (5-2) @ Kentucky (5-2): Tenn -3.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

The battle for the SEC East is not quite over yet, as a Tennessee victory over Kentucky would keep the Vols in the race with the Dawgs. Before Alabama adjusted in the second half and stormed back to beat Tennessee last weekend, the Vols held a 17-0 halftime lead and still look to be a very solid, dangerous team. But Kentucky matches up pretty well, and Kentucky fans look forward to this game as much as just about any other on their schedule. This is an underrated mini rivalry with a surprising amount of hate involved, and both teams are good and still have a lot to play for. This will be a good one.

#3 Ohio State (7-0) @ Wisconsin (5-2): OSU -14.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Both teams are coming off solid, hard-fought conference wins in what may be a preview for the Big 10 Championship game in December. Ohio State hasn’t lost to Wisconsin since 2010 even though Wisconsin has rolled out some incredible defenses and running backs over the years. Under first-year head coach Luke Fickell and OC Phil Longo, Wisconsin’s record is hiding the fact that their offense has not been as advertised. Longo came from UNC where he routinely put up 40 or 50 points a game. The personnel to run his offense cannot be flipped overnight, especially at Wisconsin, but proof of concept might need to be shown soon. The only problem is they’ve got the best defense in the nation rolling into Madison. If nothing else, night games at Camp Randall are always incredible atmospheres, and Jump Around before the 4th quarter is must-see.

Colorado (4-3) @ #23 UCLA (5-2): UCLA -17.0, O/U 64 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

The Deion Show comes off a bye week and heads to the Rose Bowl to face Chip Kelly & UCLA. Forewarning: Deion grew a beard during the off-week as if he’s gearing up to be Santa, and we wouldn’t be surprised if ESPN comes up with some stupid graphic showing his coaching record in facial hair vs clean shaven. Kind of like how the NFL tracks Travis Kelce’s offensive output with Taylor Swift watching vs without. UCLA hasn’t officially said but we’re assuming they benched freshman QB Dante Moore in favor of Ethan Garbers. Garbers was the starter last year and was replaced by Moore early in the season but looked good against Stanford last week amid Moore’s struggles. Who plays QB here likely won’t matter as Colorado decided stopping the run ain’t Prime so RB Carson Steele will likely go for 150 yards and 3 TDs here.

#11 Oregon State (6-1) @ Arizona (4-3): OSU -3.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET ESPN

As we mentioned in the Oregon-Utah preview, all of the talk in the PAC 12 has been centered around Washington, Oregon, Utah, and USC all season long. But there’s another team everyone seems to be forgetting about. Oregon State is just as much in the conference title race as any of them at 6-1, and the Beavers truly look better and better by the week. DJ Uiagelelei is back in the spotlight in college football after leaving poverty program Clemson, and Oregon State continues to be a tough, physical, exciting team to watch. Arizona has unexpectedly become one of the toughest teams to beat in the league, taking both Washington and USC to the wire in recent weeks. If Oregon State makes it through this one, the Beavers will likely be 9-1 and a top 10 team in the country headed into their late November showdowns with #5 Washington and #9 Oregon. But if all of that isn’t enough to get you to watch this game, remember this: We have five more weeks of PAC 12 After Dark. Ever. You are going to miss it when it’s gone, and so are we. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (7-0): The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party makes its return this weekend, and it’ll be the first game Georgia has played without Brock Bowers since JT Daniels was the quarterback. JT Daniels has played at two different colleges since then, sooooo yeah, Georgia is in a little bit of uncharted territory here. This is going to be a very physical matchup upfront, and the Gators have found more success on the edge offensively - where the Dawgs have struggled at times - with freshman receiver Eugene Wilson coming into his own as a more gadget-type weapon for Florida. To be totally honest, this one is really going to come down to one thing (as have all of Georgia’s games so far this season): Georgia’s ability to execute for 60 minutes.

I could talk about how I’m interested to see Rara Thomas, Ladd McConkey, and Dominic Lovett step up in place of Bowers, but every Georgia fan under the sun has already been talking about that for two straight weeks. I could try to break down more about this Florida team, but frankly, this is the most boring, solid but unspectacular Florida team in recent history. I don’t think you need me to get you interested in watching the #1 Georgia Bulldogs play a game in late October, but I do think I can get you excited to beat Florida. Let’s take a little trip down memory lane and remember what it’s like to lose to these bozos.

Every Georgia fan remembers where they were in 2007 when Knowshon Moreno dove over the pile in the first quarter to put Georgia up 6-0 and the entire UGA team ran on the field to celebrate. How awesome was that? But do you remember where you were in 2008 when the Dawgs, who started the season #1 overall, were down 49-10 in the final minutes and Urban Meyer called 2 timeouts just to rub it in while Tim Tebow ran around the sideline with the Holy Spirit within him? I do. I was at my dad’s house, 12 years old and absolutely filled with rage, my heart fueled by hatred of Florida in a way I’d never felt before. That absolutely fucking sucked, and it kicked off three consecutive years of Urban’s Gators kicking our ass.

The 2011 and 2012 Dawg wins in the Cocktail Party definitely live in UGA lore, but do you know what doesn’t? When the unranked 3-3 Florida Gators came to Jacksonville and beat the #11 Dawgs by 18. I was there, watching UF QB Treon Harris go only 3 for 5 for 27 yards because we literally could not stop Florida on the ground. Florida ran for over 400 yards and my dad and I drove all the way back home to Atlanta. Fuck yeah.

In 2016, me and about 10% of our readership here at 4th & Forever got first-row student tickets and had the opportunity to yell at Kedarius Toney for 4 hours. Awesome right? Wrong, we got strangled to death by Florida for four quarters. The Dawgs haven’t lost a regular season game in three years, and who was the last to do it? I don’t even need to say it.

The point of all of this is to say: You have been spoiled by the greatest run in UGA football history over the last few years, and we’ve gotten used to laughing at Florida more than worrying about them for a couple of seasons in a row now. But losing this game is the most painful, angering, disheartening thing the Georgia Bulldogs can possibly do. This Florida team has what it takes to play with us, and it is not out of the question that we don’t play well and let them have a shot at the end of the game. So whether you are at the game or watching with your friends back home, be f*cking loud and obnoxious. This is Georgia Florida - losing this game will ruin you emotionally more than you can imagine right now. Go Dawgs.

Wake Forest (4-3): The Deacs remain in Winston-Salem this weekend to host #4 Florida State (7-0) at 12:00pm ET on ABC. The Noles are favored by three touchdowns and the over/under is set at 51 for those interested.

ESPN pretty-boy commentator Kirk Herbstreit put the Noles on upset watch by saying, “I just think Florida State, going to Wake. It’s always sleepy at Wake and Wake has a good team, well coached, and if you don’t show up with the right attitude you’re going to be in the fourth quarter looking up and it’s a three-point game. It has that kind of feel this week for Florida State.” Thank you for the backhanded compliment there, Kirk. It’s still unclear what the Wake Forest fanbase did to piss you off, but we’ll continue occupying the beachfront estate rent-free in your head. Just two years ago on College GameDay, David Pollack made a comment that Wake fans might be upset with where they are in the CFP rankings and Herbstreit said, “All six of them.” ‘Them’ being the fans. Not unfair in the grand scheme of things, but certainly uncalled for.

That being said, Herbstreit is right in the fact that FSU head coach Mike Norvell and the Noles tend to struggle with the Deacs considering Wake has won the last three. If the Noles didn’t pull out of the 2020 game due to COVID, it’d almost assuredly be four straight. However, this is NOT the same Noles team the Deacs have faced in previous years. Almost everyone returned from last year's 10-3 squad, and they’ve already knocked off LSU, Clemson, and Duke. 6’7 WR Johnny Wilson has had an injury-riddled season and it’s unclear if he will play. Regardless, Wake CB Caelen Carson will get the tough task of limiting WR Keon Coleman in what will be a matchup of future NFL draft picks. Florida State’s offense will get theirs, in order for Wake to have any hope of springing an upset, they need to control the ball and the clock behind RBs Justice Ellison and Demond Claiborne. If DE Jared Verse is teeing off on our OL and whoever our QB is, it’s going to be a long day for the Deacs. Note: Clawson listed Mitch Griffis as QB1 on the depth chart but said “We’ll see” when asked if he’s playing.

Florida State is to the ACC what Veruca Salt is to Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory. Veruca is the spoiled brat who sings “I Want it Now” with the Oompa Loompas and then gets killed or whatever when the egg machine deems her a bad egg. Anyways, Florida State spent the offseason complaining to the media about how the ACC’s media rights distribution, which is not even half what the SEC and Big 10 schools are set to make, might make them uncompetitive nationally. FSU AD Michael Alford wants to ensure the Noles stay competitive in this new media landscape when schools such as Arkansas, Rutgers, and Mississippi State are doubling FSU’s athletic department revenue annually. However, Alford is whining about a problem that doesn’t exist…yet. FSU was competitive before NIL, winning a national championship in 2013, they’re competitive in the NIL and transfer portal era now, like right now – they’re undefeated and top 5 in the country - and they will continue to be because they’re freaking Florida State. Their recruiting is off the charts, and they use the transfer portal better than almost anyone in the nation. The only rational argument I will allow to be made on this is when athletes inevitably become employees and are paid by athletic departments. Until then, worry about your football team on the field and listen to the Oompa Loompas: “If you're not spoiled then you will go far / You will live in happiness too / Like the Oompa Loompa Doompety do.”

Tate’s (Diva’s) Great Picks (14-28)

Diva finished over .500 (3-2) last week, a feat I’m pretty sure I haven’t accomplished all season, so it was not even a question that she’d make her return this week. She has been excited to do this once again, and actually did a good bit of research to figure out a pick she makes below (she googled the mascots of Purdue and Nebraska). There’s no point in my dumbass rambling on about picks that I didn’t even make, so let’s see what Diva has to say:

Syracuse (4-3) @ Virginia Tech (3-4): VT -3, O/U 47 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Diva’s pick - Virginia Tech -3: “Virginia Tech -3 because I feel like they’re smarter?”

Georgia State (6-1) @ Georgia Southern (5-2): Georgia State -3, O/U 63 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Diva’s pick - Georgia State -3: “Georgia State -3 because I went there for a year! Go Thers!”

Indiana (2-5) @ #10 Penn State (6-1): Penn State -32, O/U 46 - Saturday 12:00pm ET CBS

Diva’s pick - Indiana +32: “Indiana +32 because my roommate Lindsay went there.”

#6 Oklahoma (7-0) @ Kansas (5-2): OU -10.0, O/U 66 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Diva’s pick - Kansas +10: “Kansas +10 because my roommate Lindsay has family from there.”

Purdue (2-5) @ Nebraska (4-3): Nebraska -2.5, O/U 39.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FS1

Diva’s pick - Game Total Under 39.5: “Under because ‘husking corn’ and ‘making boils’ (?) just isn’t gonna cut it.”

#21 Tennessee (5-2) @ Kentucky (5-2): Tenn -3.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Diva’s pick - Kentucky +2.5: “Kentucky +3.5 because I will NOT wear that gaudy orange.”

OnlyRans (34-37)

BYU (5-2) @ #7 Texas (6-1): Texas -18, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Pick - BYU +18 & Game Total Under 50.5: Ohhhhhh this might be really, really stupid but I simply can’t resist. After Ewers went out late in the third quarter, backup and presumed starter Maalik Murphy attempted two whole passes as Houston stormed back and almost won before a late 4th down stop by Texas. I’m curious to see if Sarkisian airs it out a bit more or plays conservatively to figure out if he can win a game with his defense and rushing attack. I think the latter.

Clemson (4-3) @ NC State (4-3): Clem -10.0, O/U 44 - Saturday 2:00pm ET The CW

Pick - Game Total Under 44: As we detailed above, we don’t expect there to be many points here as both teams have elite defenses and litterbox offenses. For my own, sick enjoyment I'd love nothing more than to see these two teams get into a field goal battle.

Michigan State (2-5) @ Minnesota (4-3): Minn -7, O/U 40.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET BTN

Pick - Michigan State +7: Yes, I am betting on a 2-5 Michigan State team against a Minnesota team that just beat Iowa (if you consider that impressive). But seven points is way too much here. The only thing Michigan State is capable of is stopping the run which Minnesota exclusively relies on. Last week, the Spartans held Michigan to 49 yards on the ground. Earlier in the season they held Iowa to 61 yards and Washington to 53. Washington and Michigan of course scored 40+ through the air, but Minnesota is only averaging 131 yards/game passing.

South Carolina (2-5) @ Texas A&M (4-3): TAMU -14.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - TAMU -14.5: Yes, TAMU head coach Jimbo Fisher (no relation) should be arrested for criminally underperforming given the talent and resources he has at his disposal. But the Gamecocks are legitimately bad this year. Their offensive line is horrendous and have given up 30 sacks on the year which is among the worst in the SEC. Which defense is #1 in the SEC is sacks? The Aggies. This UofSC offense didn’t score a touchdown against Mizzou last week and this TAMU defense is better. Give me the Aggies at home in a game Jimbo will be fired on the field if he loses.

Southern Miss (1-5) @ App State (3-4): App State -17, O/U 55 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN+

Pick - App State -17: Another game where the coach might be fired on the field if he loses here. App head coach Shawn Clark absolutely needs the one against a Southern Miss team that just lost 55-3 to South Alabama. App is about to enter a brutal stretch of Sun Belt play and if Clark would like to have a job come December, he needs to win this one convincingly.

Old Dominion (4-3) @ #25 James Madison (7-0): JMU -20.5, O/U 49 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ESPNU

Pick - ODU +20.5: I asked Tate what Diva thought of this game, and she said to take JMU because “Old Dominion doesn’t sound good.” Welp, sorry Diva but I’m fading you. ODU has played 7 games this year and 6 of them have been decided by a touchdown or less. That’s great when you’re playing Marshall, App, and Wake, but not so much when you beat Texas A&M-Commerce (yes, real school) by 1. James Madison is really good but has struggled to put teams away they should. I think the Monarchs get up for this in-state rivalry and keep it close.

Marshall (4-3) @ Coastal Carolina (4-3): Marshall -4.0, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 6:00pm ET NFLN 

Pick - Marshall -4: Another Sun Belt game? Yes. Sun Belt = Fun Belt and making money is also fun. This is a really low line considering Coastal’s QB Grayson McCall was stretchered off the field last week and is ‘doubtful.’ I like Rand University here.

Syracuse (4-3) @ Virginia Tech (3-4): VT -3, O/U 47 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Virginia Tech -3: Syracuse is in the midst of their annual midseason free fall and Virginia Tech is coming on at the right time which I’ve unfortunately witnessed firsthand. I like the Hokies at home on Thursday night under the lights.

For my moneyline upsets of the week, give me Arizona ML and Kentucky ML. Kentucky gets the Vols at home and has a similar physicality on defense and a solid rushing attack to Bama who just beat. They’re also at home and if you can’t tell I don’t like picking against home teams at night, especially if your stadium is named Kroger Field. Arizona is due for an upset win as we detailed above and unfortunately for the Beavs, they have to go to the desert for this one…at night.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: I’m currently in Los Angeles for work but taking a late flight back on Friday to make it back in time for the Wake game on Saturday. Sorry not sorry to my Yankee friends as the forecast is calling for a sunny, 83-degree day in Winston. Allegacy Stadium will be rocking for at least the first quarter, and anything after that is cake. Deacs by a million.

TS: For only the third time since 2013, I’ll be taking in the Cocktail Party from back home in Atlanta. I need a week off following Alex and Megan’s lovely wedding last weekend and before a run of Georgia games I plan on attending down the stretch of the season. Besides, it’s going to be an absolutely gorgeous day in Atlanta, and I’d rather enjoy that with friends and family than travel to that sewage-smelling city and risk getting murdered by some rabid Florida man who is on meth and in jean shorts. God I hate Florida. Dawgs by approximately four hundred trillion.

Hope you have a great weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.