Week 8 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Week 8 of the college football season is in the books, and we saw coaches apologizing for insensitive jokes, universities apologizing for insensitive pictures, coaches getting fired, and that’s before we even get to the actual football. Today we’re talking about Rocky lookalikes, pig farmers, and cigars so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Coaching Catastrophes

College football is cyclical, and you don’t have to look further than Penn State - Ohio State for evidence. Seemingly every year, Penn State touts that they have the necessary personnel and playmakers to knock off Michigan and Ohio State and finally earn their first playoff bid. This narrative was blasted on a megaphone all week leading up to Saturday’s matchup and someone should’ve pressed mute. 5-star QB Drew Allar was supposed to elevate the offense in a way Sean Clifford wasn’t able to, their defense could hold up against anyone in the nation, and head coach James Franklin will finally get over the Ohio State hump. None of that came true as Ohio State (7-0) beat the Nittany Lions (6-1) 20-12. Penn State’s defense was as advertised, but they could not stop WR Marvin Harrison Jr. who finished with 11 catches for 162 yards and a TD. We’re not going to give them too much flack because Harrison Jr. is an alien and legitimately unstoppable. They held the Buckeyes to 79 yards on the ground and forced a fumble too. But offensively, good lord was an atrocious performance. Drew Allar finished the day 18-42 for 191 and a meaningless touchdown with less than a minute to go. That’s a 43% completion percentage for those keeping track at home. Ohio State’s defense is very, very good but that being held to 6 points for 57 minutes is inexcusable. Ohio State didn’t even have their top CB Denzel Burke due to injury and Penn State went 1-16 on third down. James Franklin dropped to 1-9 against the Buckeyes during his 10-year Penn State tenure and is a paltry 2-12 against top 25 teams on the road and neither of those two wins are against top 10 teams. Next year when the offseason hype machine ramps back up for Penn State, check their schedule to see if they play any top 25 teams before you buy in.

Speaking of anemic offensive performances, without their starting QB Will Rogers, Mississippi State managed 205 total yards of offense, went 1-10 on third down, and still beat Arkansas 7-3. Arkansas has been without star RB Rocket Sanders for much of the season due to injury but preseason second-team all-SEC QB KJ Jefferson went 19-31 for 97 yards and 1 interception. The Arkansas offense has been one of the worst in the nation in offensive yards/game and on Sunday, Razorback OC Dan Enos was justifiably fired.

In less than a week, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has had to walk back two of his public statements and if his offense doesn’t improve, we’re guessing he might be walking back more in the future. Last week, Dabo said, “Honestly, maybe we need to lose a few games and lighten up the bandwagon. Sometimes, the bandwagon can get a little too full.” Well, seems like the bandwagon is a little lighter after Clemson blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead and lost to Miami in double overtime. After the game, Dabo was asked if Clemson uses sports psychologists and responded, “We got him, he’s probably on suicide watch right now.” Dabo later apologized but has yet to apologize to anyone for letting Miami beat them with a backup QB.

Michigan State must’ve been watching that Clemson presser and said ‘hold my beer’ because somehow Dabo’s comments were not the most insensitive action of the weekend. Prior to their game against Michigan, Michigan State’s video board was showing a YouTube channel’s trivia game and one of the questions was ‘What country was Adolf Hitler born in?’ A photo of Hitler accompanied the question and the blowback was so fierce that Michigan State had to issue an apology in the middle of the game. The answer is Austria and Michigan State lost 49-0.

Wasting Generational Prospects

As we’ve written many times, USC QB Caleb Williams and UNC QB Drake Maye are almost assuredly going to be the first two QBs off the board when the NFL Draft rolls around next April. But their coaches are doing their fanbases a disservice by wasting the most talented QBs they have or will ever coach. And before you accuse us of slandering Vince Young, we’re looking at it through an NFL Draft lens.

USC head coach Lincoln Riley has taken a ton of heat for keeping dunce-hat-wearing DC Alex Grinch, and while it’s warranted, the past two weeks have all but extinguished USC’s national championship hopes and Caleb Williams Heisman candidacy. After a three-interception, 199-yard passing performance against the Irish, on Saturday night, Williams threw for a mere 256 yards and no touchdowns as Utah kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired to win 34-32. After Williams rushed for a touchdown to complete an 11-point 4th quarter comeback, USC let 3rd string QB Bryson Barnes march the Utes back down the field with under two minutes left to set up the winning field goal. After the game, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said, “They've got a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, so they're gonna make some things, and that's just the way it is…But we've got ourselves a pig farmer at quarterback, so we're proud of that guy, too.” Absolutely brutal. Utah outgained the Trojans 484 - 401 which is almost unfathomable with how bad Utah’s offense had been. This is the same Utah team that scored 7 points in a loss to Oregon State and 14 in a win over UCLA. If you add up their total offense yards from both of those games, it would be 67 yards less than the 484 against USC. Until Lincoln decides defense is important, he will be known as an offensive mastermind whose refusal to field a competent defense overshadowed some of the best QBs the sport has seen. Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and now Caleb Williams.

Mack Brown has undoubtedly raised the ceiling of the UNC program since he came back to Chapel Hill in 2019. Recruiting is at a historic high, his offenses have been world-beaters under multiple OCs and different QBs, and the defense took a massive leap forward this year which many believed was the missing piece for UNC to have a legitimate chance to win the ACC and compete for a playoff spot. No seriously, with Heisman-hopeful QB Drake Maye, WR Tez Walker, an experienced OL, a dynamic rushing attack, and just an average defense, this UNC team had the markings of being able to compete with FSU and potentially earn a playoff spot. But you cannot, absolutely cannot, lose to a 1-5 Virginia team, at home, as 24-point favorites. Virginia came into the game 1-5 and their only win was 27-13 over FCS William & Mary. QB Tony Muskett (great name) only threw for 208 yards, but UNC could not stop UVA on the ground as they went for 228 yards with three different players rushing for at least 66 yards. This was the Cavs' first-ever road win as a top-10 team in program history and the last time a 1-5 team beat a top-10 team on the road was 1961. This is by far the biggest upset of the college football season, but the problem is, this isn’t a one-off upset as Mack’s teams seem to make losing a game they shouldn’t a yearly tradition. Quick history lesson:

2020: #15 UNC and QB Sam Howell were 4-1 and 8-point favorites over the guess Hoo - 1-4 Virginia Cavaliers. WR Dyami Brown had 240 yards and 3 TDs, UNC had over 500 yards of offense, and UVA QB Brennan Armstrong went 12-22 for 208 yards. However, two UNC fumbles and an inability to stop Virginia’s rushing attack (sound familiar?) allowed UVA to hold on to win 44-41.

2021: Take your pick of losses from this season. We wrote about this season way back in the Week 1 Preview, but UNC was a preseason top-10 team with their entire OL and QB Sam Howell returning. UNC opened the season at 5.5-point favorites but lost to a mediocre Virginia Tech team that would go on to finish 6-7. Three weeks later they got whipped by Georgia Tech 45-22 as 14.5-point favorites in Atlanta who would finish the year 3-9, and two weeks after that Florida State would beat them 35-25. UNC was a 17.5-point favorite and FSU finished the year 5-7.

2022: #13 UNC was 9-1 and 21-point favorites hosting the 4-6 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets who were forced to play their QB3 & QB4 due to injuries. Georgia Tech erased a 17-point deficit and beat the Heels 21-17 in yet another upset. After the game, Brown said, “I thought we did a poor job of preparing them and didn’t play well enough to win.” After the loss last night Brown said, “...we had chance after chance, but I think you'd have to say that we as coaches didn't prepare them very well.” At least Mack seems to have his postgame press conference statements prepared following upset losses.

Listen, UNC can still make the ACC Championship and if they beat FSU, they could be a 12-1 conference champion. We’re not here to play the ‘What If’ game in terms of making the playoff, but this UVA loss is absolutely brutal. Suppose you have a 12-1 Bama, 12-1 Oregon, or 12-1 Texas sitting there. Their losses are a lot more palatable for the playoff committee than this dud, but first, they’ve gotta go to Atlanta next weekend and play the Yellow Jackets as gulp 12-point favorites.

Quick Hitters

Elsewhere in the ACC, Florida State (7-0) stands as the lone undefeated ACC team as they pulled away from Duke (5-2) 38-20 after QB Riley Leonard reinjured his ankle in the third quarter. Duke was actually up 20-17 at that point but Leonard was ineffective passing for 69 yards and a pick. Once he left the game, backup QB Henry Belin IV managed one completion for 7 yards as FSU scored three, 4th quarter TDs. Duke remains winless all-time against the Noles as these two teams have played 20 times. Boston College (4-3) beat Georgia Tech (3-4) 38-23 in a game where both QBs rushed for over 125 yards, but this ridiculous pick-six by the Eagles was one of Haynes King’s 3 interceptions of the day.

In the American, SMU (5-2), Tulane (6-1), and UTSA (4-3) all won to move to 3-0 in the conference, while Memphis (5-2) remained in the picture after beating UAB (2-6) 45-21. East Carolina (1-6) officially staked their claim as the worst team in the state after losing to Charlotte (2-6) 10-7. If ECU weren’t so poorly run and had their financials in line, we’d assume head coach Mike Houston would be out the door, but we’re talking about a school that had to take a loan from their medical school to subsidize their football stadium renovations.

Speaking of coaches who should get fired but probably won’t because their buyout is too big, Indiana and head coach Tom Allen dropped to 2-5 after Rutgers beat them 31-14. Congrats to Rutgers (6-2) who is bowl-eligible for real, and not just because Texas A&M backed out of the 2021 Gator Bowl following a ‘disappointing’ 8-4 year. Oh, the irony. We’re guessing Aggie boosters would be elated with an 8-4 season in 2023 as they sit at 4-3 but still have to travel to Oxford & Baton Rouge. Iowa (6-2) lost to Minnesota (4-3) 12-10 where of course the historically low under of 31.5 hit yet again. We’re required by law to discuss how bad Iowa’s offense was so please bear with us. The Hawkeyes finished the day with 127 total yards, 11 of them rushing, and 3 turnovers. In the second half, they went punt, fumble, punt, punt, punt, punt, interception and had 12 total yards. Late in the fourth quarter, Iowa’s Cooper DeJean seemingly returned a punt 54 yards for a touchdown until the refs overturned it because he supposedly made a fair-catch signal. The official rule is the returner's arm has to go above his head which did not seem to be the case here. To make matters worse, Wisconsin (5-2) came back from 14 down in the fourth quarter to beat Illinois (3-5) 25-21 and move back into first place in the Big 10 West.

In the SEC, Bama fans (likely) caused a public health crisis by raising the Tuscaloosa AQI to ‘hazardous’ levels by firing up their victory cigars after the Tide (7-1) came back from 13 down at half to beat Tennessee (5-2) 34-20. Missouri (7-1) didn’t allow South Carolina (2-5) to score a touchdown as they beat the Gamecocks 34-12 in Colombia, MO. The Tigers have a bye before a three-game stretch of @ Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida which will tell us how seriously we should be taking this team in the SEC East. LSU QB Jayden Daniels continued his Heisman campaign by throwing for 279 yards and 3 TDs on just 11 completions as they beat Army 62-0. Not every service academy had a bad day as Air Force (7-0) beat Navy (3-4) 17-6 and threw a 94-yard touchdown which is the longest ever by a service academy.

In the Big 12, Texas (6-1) survived an upset bid to Houston (3-4) winning 31-24, but serious concerns remain after QB Quinn Ewers was seen in a sling after hurting his shoulder in the third quarter. They get BYU at home next week before a big matchup against Kansas State in Austin on November 4th. Kansas State (5-2) is quickly becoming one of the most interesting teams to watch in the nation after they pummeled TCU (4-4) 41-3 in the Little Apple. The Wildcats rotate quarterbacks every drive between senior Will Howard and freshman Avery Johnson. Howard is the passer of the two as he threw for 3 TDs on just 10 completions but also added 62 yards on the ground. Johnson threw for a touchdown himself but had 73 yards on the ground which comes a week after he rushed for five touchdowns. TCU’s freshman QB Josh Hoover might be the long-term answer for the Frogs, but Hoover sucked on Saturday. He followed up his 429-yard, 4 TD game against BYU last weekend with 187 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Oklahoma (7-0) needed 4th-quarter heroics by QB Dillon Gabriel to beat his old team UCF (3-4) 31-29. A failed 2-point conversion by the Knights was the deciding play after a touchdown with 1:16 left. Don’t sleep on the Pokes who moved to 5-2 and beat West Virginia (4-3) 48-34 behind 282 yards and 4 touchdowns from RB Ollie Gordon III.

Out west, UCLA (5-2) trounced Stanford (2-5) 42-7 while Oregon (6-1) handled Wazzu (4-3) 38-24. Washington (7-0) followed up their massive victory over Oregon with an absolute snoozer. The Huskies were down 7-3 to Arizona State (1-6) late in the 4th quarter before a pick-six and a late field goal gave them the win 15-7. QB Michael Penix Jr. passed for 275 yards but had two picks, a fumble, and no touchdowns. The Heisman race is wide open as we’ve seen in recent years this late into the season.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 6-6 - Season Record: 34-37

L - Tennessee @ Bama Game Total under 48: Bama won 34-20

W - Minnesota @ Iowa Game Total under 31.5: Minnesota won 12-10

L - Oklahoma -18.5: beat UCF 31-29

W - Oklahoma State +3.5: beat West Virginia 48-34

W - BYU +3.5: beat Texas Tech 27-14

L - Arkansas -6: lost to Mississippi State 7-3

W - SMU -20.5: beat Temple 55-0

L - Utah @ USC Game Total under 53.5: Utah won 34-32

L - South Carolina @ Mizzou Game Total over 60: Mizzou won 34-12

W - Arizona State +26.5: lost to Washington 15-7

W - Miami ML: beat Clemson 28-20 (2OT)

L - Penn State ML: lost to Ohio State 20-12

I feel like I’ve gone .500 and been 3 games under breaking even for 10 straight weeks now. Bama and Utah both figuring out they are allowed to throw the ball past the line of scrimmage in an effort to score points was certainly not an expected or welcome development, while South Carolina’s season keeps getting worse. In my prediction for Penn State-Ohio State, I picked the Buckeyes but then faded myself by picking Penn State ML which was incredibly stupid. However, I also said I reserve the right to cancel my Miami ML pick if Canes QB Tyler Van Dyke didn’t play, which he didn’t but the Canes won anyway so I’m counting it.

Tate’s (Diva’s) Great Picks: Last Week: 3-2 - Season Record: 14-28

L - Penn State +4.5: lost to Ohio State 20-12

W - Utah +6.5: beat USC 34-32

W - Ole Miss -6.5: beat Auburn 28-21

W - Miami ML: beat Clemson 28-20 (2OT)

L - Tennessee +9.5: lost to Bama 34-20

Diva absolutely proved to be a better gambler than me despite not knowing the name of a single player that played in any of the above games. After a shaky early start to the day missing on the Penn State and Tennessee picks, Diva went 3 for 3 later in the day on Saturday and even correctly picked underdog Miami to win outright. Diva’s picks will make their return later this week because there’s no shot in hell I’m stopping this train before it really gets rolling. Tune in on Thursday because I am going to make her pick Big Ten West over/unders to see if I can break her will.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (7-0) - BYE: Not much to write about as the Dawgs were on a bye, but it is imperative that I remind you all as early as I can that it is officially Florida hate week. The Florida Gators are a sad, pathetic, lying, and cheating football program that hasn’t won a national championship since 2008 (lmfao). We’ll do a bigger breakdown in Thursday’s newsletter, but it’s never too early to let hatred of the Florida Gators consume your heart. Fuck Florida.

Wake Forest (4-3) - Deacs 21 - Pittsburgh 17: Oh my god Pitt. Not. Like. That. Poetic Justice, Karma is a queen, Revenge is a dish best served cold, whatever you want to attribute it to, Hollywood could not write a more brutal script of how Pitt lost that game. If you remember from the 2021 ACC Championship Pitt QB Kenny Pickett fake slid against Wake Forest on a 58-yard TD run which made the NCAA implement a rule that a runner is down once they initiate a feet-first slide. Down 17-14 with one minute remaining, Wake’s third string QB Santino Marucci threw a brutal interception right to Pitt at the Panther's 29-yard line. However, because Pittsburgh players have only won two games on the season and don’t know how to handle their emotions with class and integrity, they committed two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, and their ensuing drive began at their own 7-yard line with Wake having 3 timeouts. On third and 8, Pitt QB Christian Veilleux scrambles and initiates his feet-first slide a few inches short of the line to gain. If you watch the replay, there wasn’t a defender that close to him, and even if he just ran out of bounds past the marker, Pitt could kneel the ball out and win the game. Pitt was forced to punt which went a whopping 32 yards and gave the Deacs the ball back with 40 seconds left on the Pitt 48-yard line. Out of field goal range, Marucci faced a 4th & 1 with 20 seconds left at the Pitt 39 and threw a 24-yard pass to WR Ke’Shawn Williams. After a spike, Marucci threw a bullet touchdown pass to TE Cameron Hite with 7 seconds left to clinch the Wake victory. After the game, Clawson said, “I’m not going to pretend we out-coached them or out-smarted them. Sometimes you get a little bit lucky. It’s a great lesson that we’ll show our players. You can’t start to slide. It’s kind of ironic, isn’t it?”

With Marucci starting, it was pretty obvious Wake was going to learn on their running backs and only let Marucci pass when absolutely necessary. RB Demond Claiborne finished with 14 carries on 96 yards including a 48-yard touchdown run with 3 mins left to give the Deacs a 14-10 lead. Unfortunately, Pitt marched right back down the field and threw a TD pass to retake the lead 17-14 before Marucci’s aforementioned interception. RB Justice Ellison had 60 yards on 20 carries while DB DaShawn Jones, LB Jacob Roberts, and former Deac of the Week pick LB Quincy Bryant led the Deacs on defense. Jones and LB Dylan Hazen left the game with injuries so hoping for good news on that front come Clawson’s Tuesday presser.

What a win for the Deacs. Prior to starting on Saturday, Marucci had been playing safety and other positions of need in practice for the first three years and Clawson had a very limited playbook for him. I have no idea who will start next Saturday if Griffis is healthy, but I don’t care. The Italian Stallion who might be the son of Sylvester Stallone came through, and we are all better for it. Except Pitt. Hahahaha you guys suck. Onto the next, Go Deacs.

Texts of the Week

“We riding the Force?” - Alex Sztejnberg asking if he should bet on Air Force, only hours before his own wedding. Priorities in order. Congratulations to the Sztejnberg’s!!!

October 14th following UNC's win over Miami: “As T Swift says, Karma is a queen, that’s what you get for betting against the heels. And she’s taking over football too what a win for the girlies this weekend.” -Rand’s cousin and UNC alum Anna Bland Costello. You and T Swift are right AB, Karma is a queen.

Hope you have a great Monday, and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.