Week 7 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Through 7 weeks of the season, the Air Force Falcons have still not lost a game and it is about damn time that we give them their flowers. Air Force beat top Mountain West Conference contender Wyoming in Colorado Springs on Saturday night to move to 6-0 and have become the favorites to not only win their conference but represent the G5 in a New Year’s Six bowl game in January. This team is very well-coached and so much fun to watch, and we are looking forward to seeing if Air Force can pull off a historic season for the service academies down the stretch this season. Go Falcons! Week 7 gave us a ton of wild plays, insane finishes, and taught us more about quite a lot of teams - so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Game of the Week

We figured Oregon @ Washington would give us some high-flying, explosive offensive plays, and somehow this game between two top-10 teams managed to exceed our expectations. QBs Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. went back and forth with star receivers and running backs made big plays all game long. The game came down to the very last play as the infamous college kickers trope reared its ugly head (pending your allegiance) - is there much more you can ask for? A lot has been said about Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s decision-making on 4th down, but we are (almost) fully on board. Lanning went for it on 4th down three times, and all three attempts came up unsuccessful - the two most notable ones were at the end of the first half when Oregon could have kicked a chip shot field goal to cut the Washington lead to 22-21 at halftime. Oregon, of course, ended up losing by three, and Lanning himself has admitted he wishes he had that one back. But the decision to go for it with 3:00 left in the game is exactly what coaches should do. Oregon (5-1) had the chance to end the game, and while they didn’t convert, it was the exact line of thinking that football coaches need more of. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t, but we love Lanning’s approach to the game.

On the Washington (6-0) side, the Huskies are now the #5 team in the country (and receiving first-place votes), the clear frontrunner in the PAC 12, and Penix is without a doubt the frontrunner in the Heisman race. Awesome for UDub. Both teams look like legitimate College Football Playoff contenders, and all signs point to a rematch in the PAC 12 championship game to determine who gets the honor. This game was what college football is all about - Kirk Herbstreit strongly agrees with that statement.

Buzzer Beaters

If you didn’t get eyes on the West Virginia-Houston game on Thursday night, we don’t necessarily blame you but you missed one of the best college football games of the season. Houston (3-3) led for most of the night, but West Virginia (4-2) stormed back late in the 4th quarter. With 12 seconds left in the game, West Virginia pulled out a miraculous 50-yard touchdown to complete the comeback. If the game had ended right there, this still would have been one of the better games of the year. But the game didn’t end right there, because with no time left on the clock, Houston completed their own hail mary to pull off an unbelievable, truly wild victory to win their first-ever Big 12 game. Insanity.

Somehow that was not the most insane final play of the weekend, as Colorado State (3-3) beat Boise State (3-4) 31-30 on one of the wilder hail mary attempts you will ever see. Boise State defender Jaylen Clark did exactly what he was taught to do on a hail mary try, attempting to slap the ball straight down for an incompletion. But somehow, Colorado State tight end Dallin Holker was in exactly the right spot at the right time to be able to quickly dive to the ground and catch the ball before it hit the turf. Remarkable.

Absurdly, those two wild buzzer beating hail mary’s aren’t even our favorite finishes of the weekend, because after Illinois (3-4) drove into field goal range with a chance to upset Maryland (5-2) on the road, well… this happened. What a sport.

What. Was. That.

USC (6-1) QB Caleb Williams was terrorized by Notre Dame’s (6-2) defense all game long as he launched 3 picks and was sacked 6 times. Irish QB Sam Hartman only threw for 126 yards mainly because of the short fields afforded to him by the Irish defense as they won 48-20. USC was skating on thin ice the past few weeks but finally fell through as they showed they’re clearly a tier below Oregon & Washington in the PAC 12. USC still has four currently ranked teams on their remaining schedule so Trojan fans might want to start looking at hotels in Shreveport for the revered Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl.

Elsewhere in the conference, one of the most surprising results of the weekend was Arizona (4-3) pulverizing Wazzu (4-2) in Pullman 44-6. Maybe we should’ve seen the Wildcats coming as they lost to Washington only by a TD and USC in 2OT in previous weeks, but we certainly did not expect this type of performance. Wazzu turned the ball over three times, allowed over 500 yards of offense, and now gets to go face a pissed-off Oregon team in Autzen. Bona fortuna amica mea.

If you heard incessant moaning around 2am ET on Friday night, it was the bowl executives who watched Colorado blow a 29-point halftime lead to Stanford and wound up losing 46-43 in double overtime. Cardinal WR Elic Ayomanor had a ridiculous 13 catches for 294 yards and 3 touchdowns as he abused Buffs DB/WR Travis Hunter all night long. While it was great to see Travis Hunter back in action as he led the team with 13 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs in his own right, it’s easy to forget this kid is only a true sophomore and is not the second coming of Charles Woodson as much as ESPN, FOX, The BBC, and Pyongyang Network would have you believe. Colorado faces an uphill battle to attain bowl eligibility as they still have UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Wazzu, and Utah left on the docket.

Our eyebrows were certainly raised when Vegas set the Louisville-Pitt line at -7.5 for the Cards who were coming off a shellacking of Notre Dame and undefeated. Turns out Vegas was right (yet again) but they certainly weren’t expecting a 38-20 romping by the Panthers. Pitt (2-4) turned the reigns over to Penn State transfer QB Christian Veilleux who threw for 200 yards and 2 TDs in his season debut. Louisville (6-1) racked up 350 yards through the air but two interceptions, one fumble, and an injury to star RB Jawhar Jordan was too much to overcome for the Papa John’s crew. Shame. Anyways, maybe Pitt found their offensive footing in their game which is just phenomenal to see as they head to Winston and face the Deacs next weekend.

Quick Hitters

Once again, we’re leading off this section with a shoutout for the Pokes (4-2) who were left for dead by their fans and national media after starting off the season 2-2 and miserable losses to South Alabama and Iowa State. They followed up their win over Kansas State last weekend by beating #23 Kansas (5-2) 39-32. Maybe Rand is trying to manifest a similar turnaround story for the Deacs, and if that doesn’t work, he will just live vicariously through the Pokes. Speaking of Kansas State (4-2), freshman QB Avery Johnson rushed for 5 TDs as they beat Texas Tech (3-4) 38-21. Incumbent Wildcats QB Will Howard was benched in this game, and they could sneak their way into the Big 12 championship picture if they knock off Texas in three weeks. However, they need to get by TCU (4-3) who smoked BYU (4-2) 44-11 behind backup QB Josh Hoover who attempted 58 passes for 439 yards and 4 TDs in place of injured Chandler Morris.

Another week, another coaching debacle for Miami except this one wasn’t on Mario Cristobal. Late in the second quarter, North Carolina was down 14-7, faced a 4th & 1 from Miami’s 21-yard line, and was planning on going for it until defensive coordinator Lance Guidry decided to come 5+ yards onto the field because the personnel was wrong. He was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct, giving UNC the first down who would go on to tie the game up. UNC would wind up winning 41-31 and move to 6-0. 8 miles away, Duke (5-1) beat NC State (4-3) 24-3 without star QB Riley Leonard. Duke QB Henry Belin IV (what a name) went 4/12 for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. Yes, Duke won a game completing four entire passes as tears streamed down Iowa OC Brian Ferentz’s face who gawked the offensive masterpiece.

In the Big 10, Michigan and Ohio State remained unbeaten as they beat Indiana (2-4) and Purdue (2-5) respectively, while poor Michigan State (2-4) blew an 18-point lead to Rutgers (5-2) and lost 27-24. We’re not going to spare you from the Iowa-Wisconsin box score so let’s dive in! Iowa’s QB Deacon Hill amassed 37 passing yards on 6 completions (hey, two more than Duke) and a QBR of 6.2. They punted 10 times, but golden leg Tory Taylor averaged 50.6 yards/punt and had a long of 62 yards. Unsurprisingly, the Hawkeyes (6-1) won 15-6 and the ridiculously low under of 34.5 cashed with ease. Iowa can play with one hand tied behind their back, wait they already do, and still make it to Indianapolis for the Big 10 championship game. Their remaining schedule is Minnesota (3-3), Northwestern (3-3), Rutgers (5-2), Illinois (3-4), and @ Nebraska (3-3).

In the SEC, Florida (5-2) beat South Carolina (2-4) 41-39 on a last-minute touchdown by WR Ricky Pearsall. Gator QB Graham Mertz came into this game with an 80% completion rate which dropped after going 30/48 but had 423 yards, 3 TDs, and no turnovers. Interesting offensive developments occurring in Gainesville who still have to face Georgia, LSU, Mizzou, and Florida State. Tennessee (5-1) beat Texas A&M (4-3) in one of the ugliest games of the day as Vols QB Joe Milton passed for 100 yards. Remember when people were pegging him as a dark-horse Heisman candidate? Good times. LSU (5-2) QB Jayden Daniels continued his Heisman campaign as they beat Auburn (3-3) 48-18. Auburn has serious problems quarterback problems that need to be addressed in the offseason via the transfer portal. Lastly, Mizzou (6-1) followed up their disappointing defeat to LSU with an impressive victory over Kentucky (5-2) in Lexington 38-21 even with star WR Luther Burden being held to 2 receptions for 15 yards. They get defensively challenged South Carolina next week before heading to Athens the first weekend of November.

Last but not least, it seems to be a three-horse race for the American Athletic Conference crown between Tulane, UTSA, and SMU who all won this weekend. Don’t sleep on the Owls of Florida Atlantic hoo (lol) are lurking with a 2-0 conference record as well. In the Mountain West, Fresno State moved to 6-1 with a 37-32 over Utah State (3-4) without star QB Mikey Keene. UNLV (5-1) and old Mizzou coach Barry Odom are likely going bowling which is a ridiculously impressive feat given their historic incompetence as they beat winless Nevada 45-24. And in the Sun Belt, James Madison remained unbeaten after beating Georgia Southern 41-13. We hope the Dukes end the season without a blemish on their record, go full 2017 UCF, claim the national championship, and throw a parade in front of the NCAA headquarters who won’t let them participate in postseason play because they came up from the FCS less than two years ago.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 6-6 - Season Record: 28-31

L - Miami +3.5: lost to UNC 41-31

W - Kansas State +1.5: beat Texas Tech 38-21

W & W - Michigan -33.5 & Game Total Over 45.5: beat Indiana 52-7

L - Maryland -14: lost to Illinois 27-24

L - UMass @ Penn State Game Total Under 55: Penn State won 63-0

W - NC State @ Duke Game Total Under 48: Duke won 24-3

L - Syracuse +17.5: lost to FSU 41-3

L - Alabama -19.5: beat Arkansas 24-21

W - Florida ML: beat South Carolina 41-39

W - Missouri ML: beat Kentucky 38-21

L - Texas A&M ML: lost to Tennessee 20-13

A .500 weekend keeps me just under the .500 cutline once again. I tried to get cute and broke my rule of never betting on a UNC game which did not pay off monetarily or emotionally. Did I learn my lesson? Absolutely not, as I will almost certainly be doing it again. Penn State only passed the ball for 162 yards, had two fumbles, and still scored 63 points thanks to two punt return TDs which allowed the over to hit. Awesome. The Illini defensive front stifled Maryland’s high-powered offense while Bama allowed Arkansas to come back from 18 down in the second half and didn’t score a point in the final quarter and a half. Perfect. Remember all that talk I did on Thursday about Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader and his running ability against FSU’s defensive front? Well, how idiotic of me not to factor in Shrader was apparently limited due to food poisoning as he finished the game with -10 yards rushing (sacks included). According to 24/7 Team Talent Composite rankings, TAMU has the 4th most talented team in college football but is playing like the 44th. I can rattle off facts & numbers all day about Jimbo Fisher. Still, the simple truth is, if they have $77mil lined up for his buyout (plus whatever it costs to buyout the assistants and hire the new staff) it might be worth it as he has almost the exact same record as his predecessor Kevin Sumlin. If I were AD Ross Bjork, I’d go give a blank check to Duke HC and former Aggie DC Mike Elko and call it a day. I went 1-1 on my game predictions from last Thursday’s newsletter and the one accurate prediction (Washington winning), I wasn’t even rooting for; I just did it to fade Tate which continues to be a fruitful endeavor…

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 1-4 - Season Record: 11-26

L - Maryland -14: Lost to Illinois 27-24

W - LSU -14.5: Beat Auburn 48-18

L - Alabama -19: Beat Arkansas 24-21

L Iowa/Wisconsin Game Total Over 34.5 - Iowa won 15-6

L - Air Force -10: Beat Wyoming 34-27

Underdog ML Sprinkle Parlay… lost

It’s just such a joke at this point. These weren’t even bad beats, just bad picks. I begged you all to fade me when we sent out these picks last Thursday, and I truly hope that you did. Maryland has easily been a top 4 team in the Big Ten so far this season and was playing at home against one of the conference’s worst teams. I picked the better team, and I somehow knew that I’d get screwed, because not only did Maryland not cover, THEY LOST. Alabama was on the verge of absolutely smoking Arkansas before completely falling apart offensively in the 2nd half, not even coming close to a cover. Picking an Iowa over is just so f*cking stupid, that’s on me. Side note: For the second week in a row, Iowa completed exactly 6 passes for less than 50 yards and won the game. What the hell? It’s not my fault that this season makes absolutely no sense. Betting on sports is so dumb.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (7-0) - #1 UGA 37 - Vanderbilt 20: It was a windy day in Nashville, and we saw what will hopefully be the sloppiest, ugliest Dawgs performance of the year. We started slow again before exploding in the 2nd quarter, which is truly a 2023 UGA staple. But instead of cruising to an easy blowout victory, the Dawgs seemed to be sleepwalking through the entire second half, allowing Vanderbilt to get (somewhat) back into the game. Carson Beck took a couple of bad sacks and missed two open receivers on plays that likely would have resulted in touchdowns, while WR Arian Smith let a 50-yard bomb go straight through his hands. Center Sedrick Van Pran just completely dropped the ball and fumbled a snap at one point, Mekhi Mews muffed a punt, and the defense just did not seem to be prepared for the amount of RPO’s that Vanderbilt came out running. Just really sloppy all the way around.

Unfortunately, the biggest news coming out of this one was the injury to Brock Bowers’ ankle in the 2nd quarter. While Bowers was able to walk off under his own power, early reports coming out of Athens are that the injury might be “serious” and could require surgery. If it turns out that Bowers is going to miss the rest of the season, I am going to light myself on fire. I don’t mean to be dramatic, but that would be the most cruel, tragic, unfair, and devastating thing that has ever happened to me. The one, however slight, silver lining is that Brock Bowers is a maniacal superhuman who will do whatever he possibly can to get healthy and back on the field as soon as possible. This bye week could not be coming at a better time.

Overall, just a crappy day at the office for the Dawgs. With a week off to prepare for Florida and the end stretch of the season, Kirby and the staff have got to figure out a way to clean things up and be more consistent on offense and defense. There are still too many stretches of lethargic play, too many mental errors, and UGA’s ball control took a big step backward on Saturday. If this team wants to threepeat, all of that needs to get better, and quickly. Expect the Dawgs to focus on fundamentals over the next two weeks of practice. We made it to the bye week 7-0 and as the #1 team in the country - rest up, get healthier, get better. Let’s get ready to make history.

Wake Forest (3-3) - Deacs 13 - Virginia Tech 30: Oh deer (not a typo). “We’re not getting better, we’re getting worse.” -Dave Clawson after the game. I would agree with Coach as the Deacs offense did their best Iowa impression against a below-average but improving Hokie team. In the past 8 quarters, we have one offensive touchdown, four fumbles, one interception, and 501 total yards. This offense is broken, and I genuinely don’t know where you begin to fix it. The wide receivers aren’t creating separation and dropping passes as evidenced by WR Taylor Morin’s dropped TD late in the first half which led to a field goal. Opposing defenses know our offensive line can’t block the sun on a cloudy day so they’re stacking the box with 8+ players giving our running backs no hope of doing anything. Wake RBs are talented but they combined for a whopping 47 yards on the ground against a Tech defense that had given up 282 rushing yards to Florida State, 214 to Marshall, 256 to Rutgers, 179 to Purdue, you get the picture. Additionally, Wake literally cannot convert on any 3rd or 4th & short, much less forever. By my count against the Hokies, Wake had 3rd or 4th downs with less than two yards to gain and went 1-4. There is no explosive threat which is what the offensive scheme is predicated on, and we still can’t convert in the red zone to save our lives. It’s a systematic failure on all fronts. Woof.

After I assured everyone last week that we are not benching QB Mitch Griffis, that’s exactly what happened after Griffis threw a first-quarter interception. Backup QB Michael Kern looked halfway decent, but two strip sack fumbles ruined any hope of finding an offensive rhythm. He finished the game 14-22 for 166 yards and averaged 7.5 yards/completion. I have no idea who should start next Saturday against Pitt, but at this point, I think you have to go with Kern. Kern won’t fix our offensive line woes which is the biggest issue facing this offense. I don’t think even Caleb Williams would survive in the Deacs pocket right now. Here’s a quick background on Kern: He’s a 6’2 190lb redshirt junior from Orlando, FL. He was a 3-star commit and ranked as the 25th-best dual-threat QB for the class of 2019 which means this is his 5th year on campus. Coming into this year, he had seen action in 13 different games, all in mop-up duty.

Back to the game, Wake’s defense held their own but given Wake’s offensive struggles, they were on the field a lot. Tech QB Kyren Drones only had 15 carries for 59 yards rushing, and aside from a 75-yard TD pass, Tech had to work for every yard. Getting to Drones was a problem as we only managed one sack but contained his rushing ability for the most part. 5 passes defended was a positive I guess but I’m scraping the bottom of the barrel here. That game sucked. I said last week it was a barometer game for the Deacs and we would learn a lot about what the rest of the season holds for us. I wouldn’t be too shocked if we didn’t win another game for the rest of the season. Duke, Florida State, Notre Dame, and N.C. State have to be licking their fat, flabby chops at the opportunity for their defense to play this offense. Even if we win against Pittsburgh & Syracuse, we still need one more just to qualify for a bowl game which would mean knocking off one of those four aforementioned teams. It’s not wise to read too much into one game, get too high after a win, too low after a loss, insert whatever coach speak you want, but it’s hard not to label this season as a disappointment given what’s already happened and likely coming. One to the next one, Go Deacs. Oh, I almost forgot, I don’t know what demented soul currently possesses my voodoo doll, but they need to knock it off because Friday the 13th was on Friday, not Saturday. I smoked a deer on my way out of Blacksburg and I get to file an insurance claim today. Pain & suffering at the hands of Demon Deacon football. A tale as old as time.

Texts of the Week

“That 2014 Wake Tech game was my official visit weekend and I got to witness that in person, I should have decommitted on the spot but here we are.” - Dave Peljovich

“Maybe Vanderbilt is actually just really good.” - Adam David

“Vanderbilt is the biggest club in Europe.” - Alex Sztejenberg

“Things Kirby Smart doesn’t know about: 1) Miley Cyrus, 2) Ozempic” - Alec Nathan

“Kirby ate so much Nashville Hot Chicken last night” - Sam Weinbach

“I don’t care about this game please get the camera in the injury tent I need live updates.” Alex Sztejenberg

Hope you have a great Monday, and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project.

Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers. If you’d like to update your subscription settings, please do so using the following link: 4th & Forever Subscription Settings

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.