Week 7 Preview - Show Me

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Good Morning, Happy Saturday, and welcome to 4th & Forever. It’s Tate here again, just for the intro today before I head to Athens in about an hour to watch the Dawgs take on Auburn. Rand is in Breckenridge on a “bachelor trip”, and I’m sure him crossing state lines and going AWOL has nothing to do with his new job where he is definitely not working for the cartel. The Dawgs have multiple starters out and with a bye week next week, I frankly think Kirby is going to try to put about 30 on the board and get the hell out of there today. Outside of a 4th quarter scare, there is basically nothing that could happen today that would make me legitimately concerned about the rest of the season. Stay healthy and go home to rest for a couple of weeks. 30-14 Dawgs, which is interestingly my exact same score prediction for Wake over Cal!

Give me Indiana winning 21-20 today over Ohio State, Bama to win by 10 at Neyland, Ole Miss to win a close shootout behind two of the best QB’s (and two of the most dog ass secondaries) in the country, and Notre Dame to beat BYU by 20. I expect Sark and Arch to bounce back today and put a bunch of points up on Florida in this week’s Anxiety Bowl.

Today feels like the true first day of fall throughout the southeast - go enjoy the weather outside, say “yes babe, I’d love to go to the farmer’s market” and come back to an awesome noon college football slate. And if you need any illicit substances that the state of Colorado is famous for, be sure to contact Rand via his new work email address. Go Dawgs and Go Deacs - talk soon!

Ed’s Week 7 UNC Outlook - Show Me!

There are certain things about college football I believe so stubbornly that no amount of statistical analysis, transfer portal mathematics, or NIL-era rationalization will change my mind. Here's one: The flagship public university in North Carolina should not be getting pushed around on a football field by the private school down the road.  Ever.

I respect Duke.  Tremendous university.  Fine athletic traditions....mighty fine.  But we're talking about football.  And with Carolina's institutional stature, statewide recruiting reach, alumni network, resources, and national brand, UNC ought to beat the fool out of schools like Duke,  80 percent of the time. Not because they lack talent or coaching. Duke has demonstrated otherwise. But because Carolina should be operating from a position of large public school institutional advantage as it does in nearly every other sport they sponsor.   And they have done it for decades....Decans.   That's not arrogance. That's expectation.

Which brings me to Coach Belichick.

My theme throughout this season has been simple: Show me.  And lately, Coach has started showing me some things.   He held the Fighting Irish accountable!  Against Notre Dame, Carolina demonstrated toughness against a top 5 team.  The Tar Heels lost, but they competed and made a national contender work. That mattered. Then came Pittsburgh, where Carolina went on the road and beat a ranked opponent, 21–17.  The defense stood tall when it mattered most, they took advantage of a back-up quarterback, and Belichick delivered the kind of victory suggesting something meaningful might finally be developing in Chapel Hill.

Credit where it's due.

But now comes Duke, and here's where my patience for moral victories ends.

I know Duke can play football. I know Manny Diaz can coach. I know the Blue Devils have earned respect.  Good for them.  But their success doesn't diminish my expectations for Carolina. It raises them. Because there is a difference between showing you can occasionally beat a good team and establishing a program that consistently wins the games it should. One requires an exceptional Saturday. The other requires an established standard.

And isn't establishing that standard precisely why Carolina hired Bill Belichick? Not for the name, the Super Bowl rings, or the national attention, but for the expectation that Carolina football can become something different.

Well, Bill, different starts with winning the games Carolina should win. And for me, that includes Duke. Every year. Or at least eight out of ten.

So take the short ride over to Durham. Walk into Wallace Wade Stadium. Bring your players, your coaches, your championship experience, and whatever else you've been building in Chapel Hill. Bring that defense that stood tall against Pittsburgh and the toughness that made Notre Dame work. Bring the discipline, the preparation, and the expectation that once made your teams the standard by which professional football measured itself.

And bring back the Victory Bell.

Because I'm done celebrating the possibility of what Carolina football might become. I'm ready to see what it is becoming.

You showed me you could compete with Notre Dame. You showed me you could beat Pittsburgh. Now show me you can win a game Carolina ought to win.

Show me, Bill. Show me!

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John’s Week 7 Picks

What a great week it was for the Deacs, scoring 31 unanswered points to win by the largest margin of victory in Raleigh since 1943, when Lumpy Wheeler ran the Statue of Liberty play on three consecutive possessions enroute to a 48 point margin of victory. In Chapel Hill it was raining buckets of White Claw as ecstatic Carolina fans poured out onto Franklin Street after the Heels victory, despite the fact that the game was in Pittsburgh. Nothing is sweeter than beating a team playing their backup QB, who last started a game in 2021 when he was in high school. Suddenly resurgent Purdue beat previously 4-1 Minnesota by four touchdowns, and Georgia’s referee aided win over Bama was enough to bring Tate out of seclusion to gloat. All in all, this season is shaping up quite nicely, now on to the show!

Washington @ Purdue (Purdue -3.5, O/U 49.5)

The aforementioned Boilermakers, alma mater of Larry Fisher (’59, Phi Delta Theta) get a visit from the Huskies, who after winning their first three against non-P4 teams have lost their last three, although two of those losses were to USC and Iowa. Ol’ PU, picked by the esteemed sportswriters to finish dead last in the Big Ten is now 3-3, and all of their losses were to teams that are currently ranked. Some teams rise and some teams fall, and seeing the mighty get humbled and the downtrodden start winning is always one of the most interesting aspects of the season. Take Purdue at home and give the points.

#21 Wake Forest @ California (Deacs –10, O/U 53.5)

The Bears are 3-3 after beating Virginia Tech last weekend. Are the granola cruching hippies any good? Maybe, we’ll find out this weekend. Wake is riding high and newly ranked, but the Deacs have always been at their best when they are unnoticed and underestimated. Time to see how well the Deacs deal with success. I’m not really worried though, I have a lot of confidence in Coach Dickert getting the team ready to play. Of the remaining schedule a road trip to SMU in November looks to be the toughest test, but there is little margin for error if the Deacs want to have shot at a big bowl this season.

#4 Ohio State @ #5 Indiana (OSU -3, O/U 50.5)

This is going to be the biggest college football game ever in Bloomington. That having been said, this is an odd game. Ohio State has nothing but disdain for IU, having owned them with an all-time 81-13-5 series record. However, Curt Cignetti is 1-1 against the Bucks and won the last game against them in the Big Ten Championship. Football factory/diploma mill Ohio State is looked down upon by all of the civilized world except people who went there, yet their alumni are blissfully unaware that other people don’t put OSU on the same plane as Harvard. People are incessantly proclaiming Jeremiah Smith the best player in college football and unstoppable, but that wasn’t enough to keep IU from beating them last December or Texas earlier this season. Maybe the hype machine gets a little overheated at times. These teams look pretty evenly matched, but Curt “I win, Google me!” Cignetti seems like the better big game coach given Ryan Day’s dismal record against Michigan. Take Hoosiers and the points.

#6 Alabama @ #14 Tennessee (Bama -7.5, O/U 50.5)

Alabama heads to Rocky Top still steaming about their loss to the Dawgs, and the Vols are a very weak looking 5-1, beating Auburn and Arkansas in close games doesn’t impress anyone, and losing to then #1 Texas by only three points hasn’t aged well. Super hyped five star QB Faizon Brandon has been benched or is injured, depending on who you ask, and Bama is mad. These teams hate each other as a matter of principle, and Tennessee has won the last two in Knoxville, so expect a revenge seeking Tide to get it on Saturday.  

North Carolina @ Duke (Duke -3, O/U 46.5)

Duke lost to Georgia Tech last week, who had previously lost to a Stanford team Duke beat by 28 points, so nobody knows if Duke is any good. Carolina has shown signs of life in the past two weeks, and beating Duke would be the first time Chapel Bill has managed to beat a Tobacco Road team. I expect Ed to cover this game with his usual aplomb, so I will leave that to him. Both teams need this win, but this year it probably means more to Carolina. So what, I hope they lose by 50.

Florida State @ #3 Miami (Miami -21, O/U 56.5)

Goodbye Mike Norvell. Oh, and by the way FSU, STFU about how great you are and how you should get paid more to continue to bless the ACC with your presence. Try winning a significant game every few years before you strut around like a drunk redneck at the Flora-Bama telling everybody you’ll kick their ass. Want to go to the SEC and be the conference whipping boy? Have fun with that, what could possibly go wrong? Feel free to join the Big Ten, Rutgers would love having team on the schedule they have a chance to beat.

Ed’s Week 7 Picks from the IVY LEAGUE:

Where the SAT scores are high, the defenses are stingy, and everybody's parents have a lawyer.

The Ivy League has six games this weekend, including a Friday-night conference showdown. Here are my picks, with just enough disrespect to make the alumni associations uncomfortable.

Columbia at Penn - Friday, 7 PM

PICK: COLUMBIA 24, PENN 20

Columbia comes to Philadelphia looking to prove it can win somewhere other than the admissions office. Penn will make it interesting, but I'm taking the Lions. Wall Street gets another reason to celebrate.

Brown at Princeton - Saturday, Noon

PICK: PRINCETON 20, BROWN 13

Two of the nation's stingiest defenses meet in what could become a three-hour argument over who deserves the ball. Princeton wins because somebody eventually has to score.

Rhode Island at No. 23 Yale - Saturday, Noon

PICK: YALE 34, RHODE ISLAND 27

Yale quarterback Dante Reno leads the FCS in passing yards per game. Rhode Island better bring more than a respectable transcript. The Bulldogs win a shootout, then write a dissertation explaining how.

Holy Cross at No. 17 Harvard - Saturday, 1 PM

PICK: HARVARD 31, HOLY CROSS 14

Harvard is undefeated, nationally ranked, and apparently good at football too. Holy Cross arrives with faith and momentum. Unfortunately, Harvard has a defense, a home crowd, and approximately $50 billion worth of institutional confidence.

My upset watch: Columbia over Penn. My game of the week: Rhode Island at Yale, where the Bulldogs' passing attack should provide more fireworks than an Ivy League faculty meeting.