Week 7 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. If you’re not A) watching weekday football or B) not watching any game involving App State, then you’re missing out because they both delivered (yet again) on Tuesday night. App State has a cathartic tendency to exclusively play in games that come down to the last play. On Tuesday night in Boone, Coastal Carolina won their first-ever game at Kidd Brewer Stadium which was absolutely rocking. After App State fumbled on a 70-yard pass play, Coastal Carolina came back down the field to kick a walk-off field goal. The week before, App State kicked a walk-off 54-yard field goal of their own to beat ULM. The week before that, they threw an interception on Wyoming’s 20-yard line down three with 12 seconds left in a close loss. Two weekends before that, a controversial no-call spoiled their upset bid in 2OT in Chapel Hill. Point is, don’t just look at the helmets when picking football games to watch, weekday football games are usually bonkers, especially if they involve the ‘Neers.

This week we’ve got marquee matchups in almost every conference, two teams fighting over a ruby & emerald-encrusted Irish club, a Tobacco Road Rivalry, Matt James, NSYNC, and discussions about cheese in the edition, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

6 Week 7 Games to Watch

#8 Oregon (5-0) @ #7 Washington (5-0): Wash -3.0, O/U 67.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Bo Nix and Oregon head up to Seattle to take on Michael Penix Jr. and Washington in what is easily the biggest matchup of the weekend at one of the preeminent college football venues: Husky Stadium. Don’t let Baylor and especially Tennessee fans tell you otherwise, Washington invented sailgating. This game has massive implications of all kinds. Both Nix and Penix Jr. are clear Heisman frontrunners at this point in the season, and the winner could catapult themselves into being the odds-on favorite with a big performance. There are obviously College Football Playoff implications here as well - this is the toughest test for both teams for the remainder of their seasons, and whoever remains undefeated coming out of this one will without a doubt be a top 4 team when the first CFP rankings are released later this month (assuming they don’t lose by then, of course). The Huskies beat the Ducks in Eugene last year in one of the best games of the 2022 season, and we are expecting this one to be no different. Washington has three future NFL receivers in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk - but the Ducks bring the better defense in this game. We expect this to be a high-scoring game with big-time plays by future Sunday players - that’s the best type of matchup we can ask for.

Tate’s prediction: Oregon wins 45-35. Washington will not be able to stop Oregon on the ground and it will be their downfall. Don’t let Rand tell you otherwise.

Rand’s prediction: Washington wins 41-35. Disclaimer: I am rooting for the Ducks, but go look at our betting section. You think I’m going to agree with Tate? I have morals.

Texas A&M (4-2) @ #19 Tennessee (4-1): Tenn -3.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

When Tennessee lost to Florida in Week 3, a lot of the college football world wrote off the Vols as just an average SEC East team that will end up in the Outback Bowl. While that’s still possibly the case, Tennessee still only has one loss and has a huge opportunity to make a statement in Knoxville on Saturday. On the other end of the spectrum, verified dumbass Jimbo Fisher really needs a big win considering he’s amassed the third-most talented team in the SEC for the 2nd year in a row and only has a 9-9 record to show for it since the start of the 2022 season, and his seat seems to get hotter by the week. A win would be a huge deal for both programs (albeit for very different reasons), there will be NFL talent all over the field, and we’re winding down the opportunities to watch the SEC on CBS. We definitely recommend tuning in to this one.

#25 Miami (4-1) @ #12 UNC (5-0): UNC -3.5, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Whenever UNC and Miami play each other, I (Rand) always think back to 2013 when UNC hyped the game up calling it ‘Zero Dark Thursday’, wore special edition all-black uniforms, and then lost in the final seconds. Credit to the Heels who were 1-4 coming into that game and hung tough with the undefeated and tenth-ranked Canes. Carolina is the undefeated team in this matchup and has wonder kid QB Drake Maye. Both teams have one quality win on their schedule but that’s dependent on your views of Texas A&M & South Carolina. Miami is coming off the most brutal loss of the year against Georgia Tech but always has talent. Carolina just smoked Syracuse and has WR Tez Walker back after the NCAA & UNC admin fought like toddlers over his eligibility. It should be a great game on Saturday night and the winner will cement their status as the second-best team in the ACC behind FSU.

#10 USC (6-0) @ #21 Notre Dame (5-2): ND -3, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

USC’s offense and QB Caleb Williams are the stereotypical jocks in any high school flick, while USC’s defense is the wet rag you need to clean off the lisp spit from the Minecraft kids. Speaking of a wet rag, it’ll be cold and rainy on Saturday night in South Bend which should play into Notre Dame’s favor. QB Sam Hartman is coming off his worst performance with 5 turnovers in his loss to Louisville, while USC has been skating on thin ice, requiring last-minute Caleb Williams heroics against Arizona State, Colorado, and Arizona. The Irish have literally been limping to their bye week after a brutal 3 game stretch of Ohio State, @ Duke, and @ Louisville. They really, really need RB Audric Estime back for this one as he left the Louisville game with an injury. If he’s not effective or doesn’t play at all, it’ll be up to Hartman and his Fisher-Price receiving corps to outduel the most potent offense in football. We have no idea how this game will go but we’re excited for the winning QB to run around the field with the Jeweled Shillelagh where we can only hope Caleb Williams can bludgeon USC defensive coordinator Alex Grinch over the head with it.

Rand’s prediction: As atrocious as USC’s defense has looked this year, and last year, or any defense under Lincoln Riley, it’s as simple as USC has Caleb Williams and Notre Dame doesn’t. 31-20 Trojans.

Tate’s prediction: USC is having to spray hoses at their players during practice this week to prepare for possible rain in South Bend on Saturday - give me the Irish, 38-28.

Wyoming (5-1) @ Air Force (5-0): AFA -10.5, O/U 42.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET CBSSN

We’ve talked a lot about how good Wyoming has looked this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but it’s not all that surprising that they’re 2 possession underdogs to Air Force. Air Force’s defense is allowing 12.2 ppg (8th in the nation) and their secondary is a…no-fly zone giving up 151 passing yards/game (4th in the nation). On offense, the Falcons convert seemingly every third down, run the ball effectively via the triple option, and when they’re forced to pass, they do so at an extremely efficient clip. Oh, and they are never penalized. Sounds like a classic academy football program. This will be a very fun defensive slugfest between two balanced and tough teams.

#18 UCLA (4-1) @ #15 Oregon State (5-1): OSU -3.5, O/U 54 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

This is a very interesting matchup between two teams fighting to stay alive in the Pac-12 race. Stylistically, these two teams have very distinct strengths and weaknesses that match up well with one another. Oregon State has a very strong rushing attack but faces a UCLA defense that only gives up 2 yards/rush. The Beavs hung 52 on Cal last weekend (but gave us 40) as QB DJ Uiagalelei threw 5 TDs, but still didn’t push the ball downfield. UCLA QB Dante Moore has shown a propensity to be too loose with the ball given his 2 pick-sixes in Pac-12 play and looked horrendous in the last road environment he played in at Utah. That being said, Oregon State’s defense can’t tackle and is giving up over 5 yards/play which is not ideal when UCLA gets to trot out workhorse RB Carson Steele. Corvallis will be a-rocking and we'll be a-watching.

9 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

Tulane (4-1) @ Memphis (4-1): Tulane -4.5, O/U 54.5 - Friday 7:00pm ET ESPN

If you haven’t watched a single AAC game yet, we don’t blame you because every game thus far will put you to sleep faster than Iowa’s offense. However, Memphis and Tulane are the clear-cut favorites (along with potentially SMU) in the conference. The winner will have the inside lane to the G5 New Year’s Six bowl bid alongside whoever wins the aforementioned Wyoming - Air Force game but advantage American > Mountain West given how the playoff committee tends to favor this conference. Tulane & long lost NSYNC member QB Michael Pratt has had a week to prepare for this matchup, and the lone blemish on their record is a close loss to Ole Miss where Pratt didn’t play. Memphis boasts the 18th-best scoring offense in the country but has its hands full against Tulane’s 21st-ranked scoring defense. Should be a great battle on Friday night in Bluff City.

Stanford (1-4) @ Colorado (4-2): Colorado -11.5, O/U 58.5 - Friday 10:00pm ET ESPN

If you thought the government’s Wireless Emergency Alert last week was annoying, well you seem to have forgotten that Bleacher Report & ESPN send push notifications about what brand of toothpaste Travis Hunter uses. Hunter is likely to play, and we’re interested to see if he gets 100+ snaps as he works his way back from injury. Stanford is a lost ship at sea trying to find any semblance of an offensive identity under new coach Troy Taylor, but we know you don’t really care. Colorado plays late on a Friday night, and we know we will all be watching.

#23 Kansas (5-1) @ Oklahoma State (3-2): Kansas -3, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FS1

Kansas still isn’t expected to have preseason Big 12 Player of the Year in QB Jalon Daniels, while Oklahoma State seems to have finally settled on Alan Bowman to lead their offense. Kansas relies on the running game even though QB Jason Bean can sling it with moderate success. Oklahoma State is less than stellar at stopping the run and we are skeptical that their big win against Kansas State last week was more Kansas State was sleepwalking. Both of these teams still have to play Big 12 front-runner Oklahoma, and this should provide a solid data point on if either one of them can provide the Sooners a stiff test.

Florida (4-2) @ South Carolina (2-3): UofSC -2.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET SECN

These teams suck. There’s no getting around it. But ever since Steve Spurrier left Florida for the NFL, then wound up back in the SEC at South Carolina, this has been a spicy rivalry. Spencer Rattler remains both the most underrated player in the country and the most underrated-fun player to watch in the country. His favorite target Xavier Legette is one of the better receivers in the country, too. Florida’s defensive line is actually pretty solid, and South Carolina’s offensive line is absolute Swiss cheese (note: this is not the last cheese reference in this email), so we may get some exciting moments of Rattler running for his life, chucking the ball to Legette, and the play ending up in a scuffle. Count us in.

Iowa (5-1) @ Wisconsin (4-1): Wisc -10, O/U 34.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FOX

Another week, another absurdly low O/U for a game involving Iowa. Wisconsin’s shift in offensive styles from the 1920’s ground and pound to the up-tempo, fling the ball all over the field attack was always going to take time, but I don’t know if people were prepared it’d look as bland as a Kraft American single. It’s still certainly a work in progress, and Wisconsin produces running backs more efficiently than they do milk, so they’d be insane not to keep handing Braelon Allen, Chez Mellusi, and Jackson Acker the ball. Alright, I’m done being…cheesy. Wisconsin has the worst passing defense in the Big 10 but that certainly won’t matter against Iowa who refuses to pass to anyone past the line of scrimmage. If Wisconsin can muenster, I mean muster, a mere 20 points, that should be gouda.

Auburn (3-2) @ #22 LSU (4-2): LSU -11.5, O/U 61 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Helmet game. One of the most physical, intense, high-level games each year in the SEC. These are far from the best LSU or Auburn teams that we have seen in recent years, but these two teams always give us good games against each other, and we’re expecting another one here on Saturday night. QB Jayden Daniels has been so good that he is the only legitimate Heisman candidate on a team that already has two losses, and Auburn’s defense is actually very solid. On the other side, LSU’s pass defense is worse than 2-month-old milk (note: this is the last milk reference in this email), but Auburn literally cannot throw the football. Interesting. Both teams need this win like they need water, so we’re expecting these two teams to be very prepared, play really hard, and try their hardest to suck less than the other one. Go Tigers.

Marshall (4-1) @ Georgia State (4-1): GAST -1.0, O/U 57 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN2

The Sun Belt is one of the most competitive conferences in all of college football and there might not be a more compelling divisional race than the Sun Belt East, where both Marshall and Georgia State compete. The Sun Belt has 14 teams, only 2 of them hold overall records under .500, and they’re both in the West. Current East division leader James Madison is undefeated but due to arcane NCAA bylaws, they are not eligible for postseason play which includes the conference championship game. Georgia State’s head coach Shawn Elliott has coached himself off the hot seat with this torrid start to the season led by electric dual-threat QB Darren Grainger. Marshall and RB Rasheen Ali hung tough with NC State last week before ultimately falling but have one of the best defenses in the entire country. This should be a great matchup between two balanced offenses and stout defenses.

Missouri (5-1) @ #24 Kentucky (5-1): UK -2.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET SECN

While both Missouri and Kentucky are coming off of tough losses to LSU and Georgia respectively, both teams still have a ton to play for here at the halfway point of the season. Missouri’s offense has been one of the surprises of the SEC season so far, and Kentucky’s defensive front has proven to be one of the better units in the league so far as well. As always, Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden is enough of a reason to watch any game Missouri plays in, but a Missouri win could also lead to a showdown for the SEC East title in Athens in a few weeks. Keep an eye on this one.

NC State (4-2) @ #17 Duke (4-1): Duke -3.5, O/U 45 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Duke QB Riley Leonard, who was last seen in crutches after he rolled his ankle on the last play against Notre Dame, is ‘day-to-day’ and it’s likely head coach Mike Elko will keep his status under wraps until kickoff. State QB MJ Morris threw for 4 TDs in his first start since taking over for Brennan Armstrong, but also tossed 3 picks and only amassed 265 yards. Duke is not the defense you want to be facing if you’re trying to find your sea legs, but the unknown status of Riley Leonard makes this game interesting.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (6-0): The Dawgs head to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt this weekend, and to put it simply, this one might be a bloodbath. Vanderbilt has been a big-time disappointment in the league so far this season - after Clark Lea’s team improved so drastically in his second season in 2022 by finishing 5-7 with two SEC wins - I really thought this team would pull off another upset or two and make a bowl game. That has not happened. This one may end up looking like the last UGA game at Vanderbilt, which was a legitimate safety hazard for Vanderbilt’s players. Vanderbilt has not scored a touchdown on Georgia since 2019, so I am not going to bore you all with any sort of game breakdown, because the young backups are going to be playing early and often in this one.

So with that said, let’s talk about some of our young backups! You all know as much of the next guy that the Dawgs recruit at an absurd level, and that we are often sitting kids on the bench for entire seasons who are some of the most elite athletes in the entire sport. But not everybody follows the recruitment of 16-17 year-old athletes with such vigor, focus, and borderline creepiness as I do, so I figured today would be a good day to talk about some of the young, unheralded Dawgs who have a chance to break out down the stretch this season and help us win a third straight national championship.

-RB’s Rod Robinson (True Freshman, #0) and Andrew Paul (Redshirt Freshman, #3): It’s no secret that the Dawgs are lacking the explosive and game-breaking back, and the bruising, punishing back that we’ve seemingly had for the past fifty-thousand years. Rod Robinson is from San Diego and Andrew Paul is from Dallas, and both of these guys blew up in their senior seasons of high school and got plucked by the Dawgs at the end of the recruiting process. It may be just for depth purposes this year, but each of these guys have shown flashes of being the next reliable Georgia RB. Robinson is coming off a sprained MCL and Paul is coming off of an ACL he tore last year, but both seem to be rounding into health and should be ready to provide a boost to the running game down the stretch of the season. Keep an eye out for these two.

-TE Lawson Luckie (True Freshman, #7): Luckie is a Georgia legacy who earned tons of hype through spring practice, summer workouts, and fall camp for his blocking and effort prowess, before spraining an ankle in fall camp that has mostly kept him out of action to this point. Oscar Delp has made several mental mistakes and missed several blocks so far this year, so look for Luckie to become a part of the run-blocking game as the season goes on. The future is really bright here.

-LT Earnest Greene III (Redshirt Freshman, #71): Our starting left tackle still plays with his pads too high and makes 3-5 glaring mistakes per game like he’s paid to do it, but the upside on this kid is insane. We have gotten very used to elite tackle play at UGA since Kirby got here with Andrew Thomas being the highest-paid LT in the NFL, Brod Jones being a first-round pick in the past draft, Jamaree Salyer and Warren McClendon playing big roles in the league, Amarius Mims being a projected first-round pick next year, and Isaiah Wilson being drafted in the first round before quitting and starting a rap career. The fact that Greene has managed to not be a glaring issue for the Dawgs so far this year speaks volumes to his ability and potential. You may not know him now but look for this kid to be a first-round pick in a couple of years.

-DE Mykel Williams (Sophomore, #13): Mykel was a 5-star and broke out in a big way down the stretch last season and currently leads the team in sacks despite missing a game, so maybe he doesn’t belong on the list of “unheralded backups”. But this is a young guy who will almost certainly be a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL draft, so I want to point him out. Yes, he is big and athletic in a truly freaky way, but what will carry this kid forward in his career is his relentless pursuit of getting better. Kirby is notoriously critical of freshmen, in order to get them to buy into the system and be good teammates. But Kirby said this about Mykel on July 22nd, 2022, before Mykel had ever even gotten to his first fall camp: “I look out my window and I see him out there doing extra after every practice, left work the other day on a Sunday and he's out there hitting a sled on Sunday. So guys, when you got a freshman that's out there on Sunday on his own, on turf, 115 degrees out there, and he's out there striking a sled, that’s something special, and he's talented.” Watch the fuck out for Mykel Williams.

-EDGE Marvin Jones Jr. (Sophomore, #7): The Dawgs could really use an edge rusher stepping up. Jones is a former 5-star who has seen his snap count increase from week to week, seemingly since he got on campus. He has made consistent mental mistakes that need to be cleaned up, but this kid has future first-round NFL Draft potential. He is backed up by a trio of ridiculously talented true freshmen, by the way. We’ll get to those 5 stars at a later date.

-ILB CJ Allen (True Freshman, #33): Not one true freshman ILB has played as many snaps this early in his career under Kirby. Roquan Smith, Nakone Dean, Smael Mondon, and Jamon Dumas-Johnson were not trusted at this point in their careers (and even later) nearly as much as Allen has been so far. This kid might not be as athletic and instinctual as Roquan or Nakobe, but Kirby absolutely raves about this kid’s intellect, his ability to understand our system, and his ability to be the quarterback of the defense. The Dawgs brought in another insanely talented ILB in the past recruiting class in Raylen Wilson who has been held back by an injury so far, so we will get to him at another date. As of now, Allen looks to play a pivotal role on the Dawgs’ defense as we look to three-peat and is another prime example of Kirby not only recruiting the most talented kids but kids who will continue the culture of excellence in leadership and work ethic that has been abundant in this program since the fat bastard took over. He will be a fan favorite within a year.

LET’S GO BEAT THE LIVING SHIT OUT OF VANDERBILT.

Wake Forest (3-2): What exactly is a Hokie? I’m glad you asked because it’s a castrated/emasculated turkey. Anyways, massive game for the Deacs this weekend as they head to Blacksburg to face the Virginia Tech Hokies (2-4) at 3:30pm ET on the ACC Network. The spread has hovered around a pick ‘em all week, but as of writing, Virginia Tech is favored by -1.5 with the O/U at 48.5. I don’t really like labeling games as a “must win” especially this early in the season, but this is certainly a barometer game for the Deacs. I think we will learn a lot about what the rest of the season holds for us and if we have a chance of extending our 7-year bowl appearance streak.

The Deacs and the Hokies have only played 7 times since Tech entered the league in 2004, but Wake hasn’t won in Lane Stadium since 1983. No matter how bad Virginia Tech is, Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the conference. Just watch this two-minute video of their Enter Sandman entrance from three weeks ago against Pitt. Both teams were 1-3 and were coming off three straight losses going into that game. The point is Lane Stadium is going to be rocking, so the Deacs better be ready.

Wake and Tech always seem to deliver some very surprising or straight-up dumbfounding results, even with the limited number of matchups so here’s a quick history lesson. The last time these two teams played was three years ago in Winston-Salem where Wake won 23-16. Future Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker and current Bears RB Khalil Herbert were stars of the Tech offense while Wake was led by QB Sam Hartman and RB Kenneth Walker III before he went to Michigan State but now starts for the Seahawks. That said, the only thing people seem to remember is WF safety Nick Andersen getting a scholarship following the game after his 3 interception performance and subsequently getting a shoutout from NBC Nightly News.

2019: The last time the Deacs went to Blacksburg, it uh…did not go well. The Deacs and future Georgia star, QB Jamie Newman, had a 7-1 record, ranked #22, and were top 10 in the country in passing and total offense. Virginia Tech was 5-6 and trying to adjust to post-Beamer life, but decided to honor legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster during this game and I’m pretty sure they let him coach too because they throttled us. WR Sage Surratt went down early in the game with what ended up being a season-ending shoulder injury, and the Deacs lost 36-17.

2014: You think you’d make it through this exercise without mentioning the most iconic photo in college football history? You are sorely mistaken. The meme I’m referencing was of course the photo at the beginning of this section. This was truly one of the worst football games I’ve ever witnessed, and I had the distinct ‘honor’ of taking it in from frigid BB&T Field that day. It was Clawson’s first year, the Deacs suffered losses to ULM & @ Utah State earlier in the year and came into the game 2-8. The box score is an absolute abomination. This game featured 4 missed field goals, 4 turnovers, and barely 500 yards of offense combined, but let’s keep going. Both teams averaged under 5.0 yards/pass, under 3.0 yards/rush, went a combined 8-35 on third down, and punted it 18 times. ABC executives must’ve been watching because Wake WR Matt James had 6 catches for 29 yards and surely locked up his spot on The Bachelor after leading the Deacs to a 6-3 victory in double OT.

2006: Last week I detailed Wake’s first loss of the miracle 2006 ACC Championship season. As you can probably guess by now, this was our second. Virginia Tech was ranked #19 in the country and had one of the best defenses in the nation. Let’s remember some names you haven’t thought about in 15+ years: QB Sean (not Mike) Glennon, WR Eddie Royal, LB Xavier Adibi, DB Brandon Flowers, and for good measure, DB Kam Chancellor was a freshman but didn’t play…yet. They were already out of the ACC Coastal race by this game but were giving up a ridiculous 5.8 points/game in their previous four contests. Wake, meanwhile, was coming off their 30-0 shutout of Florida State in Tallahassee which was the first time Bobby Bowden had ever been shut out at home. Ranked #14 in the country, the Deacs could clinch the ACC Atlantic division title with a win. Then Virginia Tech’s defense got off the bus and absolutely suffocated the Deacs en route to a 27-6 win. I remember being very cold, very cramped, and seeing a lot of Hokie fans at this game. A few months ago, my thesis was proved correct when I saw a message board post that Virginia Tech fans forged thousands of tickets and there were an estimated 40,000 people in the stands. The official capacity of Wake’s stadium is 31,500. Morale of the story: always believe what you read especially if it's on message boards.

As for the 2023 edition of the weird, ridiculous series, the Hokies have already made a QB switch to Kyron Drones who is an absolute unit at 6’2 234 pounds. The move was necessitated due to QB Grant Wells getting injured, but it might be a blessing in disguise for Hokie fans given how bad Grant Wells was to start the year, which wasn’t shocking given his previous three years of also sucking. Drones gets antsy in the pocket, tucks and runs at the first sign of trouble, and doesn’t have the best arm. He’s completing a meager 55% of his passing on the year and averaging less than 200 passing yards/game. That being said, he’s most dangerous when he’s on the run. In games he’s started, he’s averaging 18 carries/game for 67.5 yards and already has 4 rushing touchdowns. The Deacs need to be very disciplined and contain him on the ground.

On the flip side, the Hokies running defense is absolutely abysmal. They’re giving up 195.0 rushing yards/game and 29.0 points per game. Their secondary, especially at cornerback, is the strength of their defense, but teams obviously haven’t needed to pass on them to be successful. For the Deacs, starting RB Justice Ellison who left the Clemson game early should be back, and OL Spencer Clapp should be good to go as well. I expect (and we desperately need) a big game out of RBs Ellison and Demond Claiborne to take the pressure off Mitch Griffis and the OL. My Deac to watch of the week, which is undefeated on the year, is LB Quincy Bryant who should rack up the tackles trying to corral Drones. Deacs by a million, baby.

Tate’s Great Picks (10-23)

Illinois (2-4) @ Maryland (5-1): UMD -14, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Maryland -14: Illinois absolutely f*cking sucks, like they really really suck. Maryland took Ohio State into the 4th quarter last Saturday. Illinois’ secondary is horrible. Maryland has the best passing offense in the Big Ten. This is obvious, right? Probably not. The way my season is going, Taulia Tagovailoa will throw 7 picks and Maryland will win by 13.

Auburn (3-2) @ LSU (4-2): LSU -11.5, O/U 61 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - LSU -11.5: Look I know LSU’s pass defense sucks, but I genuinely think you could throw Rand at quarterback for Auburn and you’d get the same result as Payton Thorne and Robbie Ashford are giving the Plainsmen right now. I honestly think LSU will win this game by 20+ (which means LSU will win this game by 10. Fade me pleeeeaseee).

Arkansas (2-4) @ #4 Alabama (5-1): Bama -19.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Alabama -19.5: I think there is a shot that Arkansas defensive coordinator Travis Williams figures the Tide out and provides the blueprint on Jalen Milroe moving forward (the gameplan is sell out to stop the run on 1st and 2nd down and then drop all 150 people on your team back in coverage on 3rd down), but this Alabama defense is really good and Arkansas looks more and more lost offensively as the weeks go on. Give me the Tide.

Iowa (5-1) @ Wisconsin (4-1): Wisc -10, O/U 34.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FOX

Pick - O 34.5: Iowa’s offense is the most tragic thing to happen to the midwest since the Great Chicago Fire, but somehow the Hawkeyes are 5-1 and keep burning me on unders. The Hawkeyes are almost always good for a defensive/special teams touchdown every game, and Wisconsin’s rushing attack is actually formidable. We’re going over (no we’re not, fade me).

Wyoming (5-1) @ Air Force (5-0): AFA -10.5, O/U 42.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET CBSSN

Pick - Air Force -10.5: I love Wyoming, I think they are a top-five team in the G5 this year. But Air Force is an absolute wagon folks. They continuously blow out the spread in their games, they have one of the best coaches in college football, one of the most unique offenses in the sport, and the game is at Air Force, while Wyoming has struggled to score all year. The Falcons are for real guys. Let’s fly.

The Underdog ML Sprinkle Parlay (which is 1-2 on the year) will be Oregon ML, Missouri ML, and Wake Forest ML. Washington’s defensive line will prove to be the weakest link on the field and will get Oregon beat. Missouri is simply better than Kentucky. And if you think I’m picking 2023 Virginia Tech to beat Wake Forest here on 4th & Forever, you’ve lost your ever-loving mind. Go Deacs.

OnlyRans (22-25)

#25 Miami (4-1) @ #12 UNC (5-0): UNC -3.5, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Pick - Miami +3.5: My two unwavering rules of betting are to never provide picks on Wake or UNC given my subjectivity in two completely different manners. Welp, I’m a weak, feeble man and simply cannot resist. Miami opened as 1-point underdogs and has been bet up to 3.5. I think the market is overreacting to just how brutal that Miami loss was last weekend against Georgia Tech. Miami has more talent than UNC, but talent doesn’t always equate to winning which has been the story of Miami football for the past 20 years. More than a field goal is too much here which is why, even given all my deeply seeded biases, think this is a good bet.

Kansas State (3-2) @ Texas Tech (3-3): TTU -1.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET FS1

Pick - Kansas State +1.5: My hunch here is Kansas State and head coach Chris Kleinman will respond with a vengeance after their disappointing showing against the Pokes last week. Wildcat QB Will Howard will be the most talented player on the field which is a decent recipe for success against a porous Red Raiders secondary. Sorry Red Raiders, I’m not buying your resurgence after whipping Baylor last weekend.

Indiana (2-3) @ #2 Michigan (6-0): Mich -33.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Michigan -33.5 & Game Total Over 45.5: Michigan has only given up 4 touchdowns the entire year and that won’t change against Indiana’s offense that’s averaging 11.3 ppg against FBS competition. Michigan should run the rock down the Hoosier’s throats who are one of the worst in the Big 10 in stopping said running. 33.5 is a big, big number but Michigan just hung 52 on the Gophers (albeit with 2 pick-sixes) and with this being in The Big House, I expect them to keep rolling against a putrid Indiana team.

Illinois (2-4) @ Maryland (5-1): UMD -14, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Maryland -14: Maryland hung tough with Ohio State through 3 quarters last week and still has a lethal offense. Illinois defense is atrocious, and their offense isn’t much better. Expecting an easy Maryland cover here.

UMass (1-6) @ #6 Penn State (6-0): PSU -41.5, O/U 55 - Saturday 3:30pm ET BTN

Pick - Game Total Under 55: UMass is one of the worst teams in the FBS and it’s likely they don’t score against a rock-solid Nittany Lions defense. The weather forecast is projecting a downpour and Penn State is going to want to get this one over quickly with the Buckeyes looming next week.

NC State (4-2) @ #17 Duke (4-1): Duke -3.5, O/U 45 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Pick - Game Total Under 48: Duke’s defense is giving up 11.2 points per game and should find similar success with State QB MJ Morris making his second start of the season. Even if Duke QB Riley Leonard can go, I expect him to be very conservative running the ball where he is most dangerous. Furthermore, State has one of the best LB corps in the ACC led by Payton Wilson, and should force Duke to beat them through the air which isn’t their M.O.

Syracuse (4-2) @ #4 Florida State (5-0): FSU -17.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Pick - Syracuse +17.5: If this gets under 17, I wouldn’t take it. Florida State sprinted out to a 22-0 lead against the Hokies last weekend before struggling to contain QB Kryon Drones and his rushing ability (14 carries for 80 yards) as the Hokies got within a possession in the second half. Against Boston College, the Noles allowed QB Thomas Castellanos to rush for 95 yards on 16 carries while LSU QB Jadyen Daniels went for 64 yards on 15 carries. Enter QB Garrett Shrader who is probably the best rushing QB the Noles have faced, and I think he makes this a little too close for comfort for Noles fans.

Arkansas (2-4) @ #4 Alabama (5-1): Bama -19.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Alabama -19.5: Arkansas's offense has been a dumpster fire while their defense has been just meh. Alabama is coming off a big win against the Aggies and seems to have found their offensive identity with QB Jalen Milroe’s rushing ability coupled with explosive play threat WR Jermaine Burton. At home, I expect the Tide the roll.

The SEC has 3 conference matchups that feature road team underdogs all within 3 points. I’m feeling adventurous - and perhaps idiotic - so let’s take all three for my moneyline upsets of the week. Give me Florida ML, Missouri ML, and Texas A&M ML.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: I’ll be at Lane Stadium on Saturday afternoon taking in one of the best college football environments in the country. My Dad and I will be there with some of his old college buddies rooting for the Deacs and hoping for an enjoyable car ride home.

TS: The television: The greatest invention since X (formerly known as Twitter). That is what I will be watching all day. This isn’t college football related, but if the Braves force a game 5 tonight, you can catch me in Cobb County at the game. Braves in 5.

Hope you have an extraordinary weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.