Week 7 (and Friday Night) Preview

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If you didn’t watch the App State James Madison game last night you missed a great one. The Mountaineers rallied for 18 4^th quarter points to send the game to overtime and won it 34-31. Pandemonium ensued in Boone, hordes of black and gold overall wearing lunatics stormed the field, there may have even been a few college students in the crowd, and even Tennessee fans were on social media making derisive jokes about the rednecks from down the road. After that game concluded, the rednecks from ECU shooting it out with Memphis on the road before losing in overtime. Just for the record, ASU beat ECU in Greenville 27-24 earlier this season, but they don’t play again until 2029 and that game is in Charlotte. This is an outrage! They should be required by law to play every season, on campus, no exceptions. Call your state legislators and make your voice heard, we demand action! Wake Forest is off this week, so this would be good time to get those things done around the house you’ve been putting off.  

Duke @ Virginia (UVA -2.5, O/U 46.5)

These two teams were supposed to be good but they’ve nothing to impress so far. Virginia’s signature win this season was blowing out a lackluster NC State team on opening day, and Duke has lost it’s last two games to Georgia Tech and Carolina. Both teams badly need a win have some tough games remaining on their schedules. You know it’s going to be crazy in Charlottesville on a Friday night, so get to the stadium early so you can get a charcuterie board and a nice Chablis from the concession stand and be seated by kickoff. Normally I’d pick Duke on the basis of Nate Sheppard alone, but he was held under 100 yards in each of the last two losses, so that’s the formula to beat Duke. Take the Wahoos.

NC State @ Stanford (NCSU -7.5, O/U 55.5)

If NC State loses to Stanford, Dave Doeren should not get on the plane to come home. The Wolfpack are 3-3 with embarrassing losses to UVA, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest on their resume, and although they should probably still qualify for a bowl, barely, given their remaining schedule, the only thing that State could do to really salvage the season would be wins on the road against FSU and UNC to close out. Good luck with that.

In a sad note, former NC State player and coach Chuck “The Chest” Amato crossed the goal line for the final time this week. Happy trails Coach, those wonderful seasons with Philip Rivers and TA McClendon were the best State teams I’ve ever seen, it was a fun ride.

#18 LSU @ Auburn (LSU -7, O/U 51.5)

Auburn is coming off their biggest win in years taking down then #1 Georgia on the road, new coach Alex Golesh is looking like he may be the real deal, and Lane Kiffin is coming to town with a team that looks a lot better than #18 in the country. For the past several years Auburn fans have suffered like a white guy at a Public Enemy concert, they’re getting their ass kicked or being ignored. Lane Kiffin loves playing the bad guy, but with two losses already in conference and games against Bama, Texas and Tennessee left on the schedule, he really needs this one. Take the Bayou Bengals in this one, they need it more.

#6 Indiana @ Michigan (IU -7.5, O/U 42.5)

Indiana being favored in a game at Michigan Stadium is definitely twilight zone material, it’s surreal. The formerly esteemed University of Michigan announced recently that they are no longer going to give letter grades to first semester freshmen, they don’t want to hurt the self-esteem of the little snowflakes. Given the documented rampant grade inflation, is getting a B+ really a reason to cry all weekend and pound Zoloft? The plan was suspended, but the grades for new coach Kyle Whittingham have been coming in all season and they’re lousy. Beating Penn State by three last weekend hasn’t soothed the fanbase, and there are three teams currently in the top 10 left on the schedule. Time to take a beating from the Hoosiers boys, it’s long overdue.  

#7 Ole Miss @ #19 Texas (Texas -3, O/U 53.5)

The best quarterback in the SEC will be playing in this game, but he won’t be wearing burnt orange. Trinidad Chamblis slightly edges out Keelon Russell as the best QB, although I love watching both of them play. The former Ferris State star gives Ole Miss a big edge in this game, yet Texas is still favored, what gives? A lot of smart people have gone broke thinking they know more that Vegas, so I’m not going to doubt that line, but it just don’t look right. That thought led me to question if there was a possible Kalshi/Vegas arbitrage. To me it looks like the answer is no, but I was a history major, so you quant guys can work on that.

I like Arch Manning, he seems like a genuinely good guy, despite being the most hyped college football recruit of all time. If he wasn’t humble before he got to Texas, he is now. It really seems like he’s pressing this year, forcing passes and playing poorly with the game on the line. Maybe he’ll turn it around and have a big game, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

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SHOW ME, BILL. SHOW ME MORE!

The Victory Bell is back in Chapel Hill. Now Belichick must protect Carolina's momentum, respect a dangerous Syracuse team, and prepare the Tar Heels for a prime-time opportunity against No. 1 Miami.

Bill Belichick is beginning to create a problem for himself in Chapel Hill. The more he wins, the more I expect him to win. And after consecutive victories over Pittsburgh and Duke, the six-time Super Bowl champion is discovering something Carolina fans have been waiting a long time to experience: expectations that grow because of what happens on the football field, not because of what somebody promises at a press conference.

My message to Bill all season has been simple: Show me. And lately, he has. Against Notre Dame, he showed me Carolina could compete with one of the nation's best. Against Pittsburgh, he showed me his team could beat a ranked opponent on the road. And against Duke, he showed me something I particularly appreciated: He understood that bringing home the Victory Bell wasn't just another win. It mattered to Carolina people, and watching him celebrate with his players convinced me that it mattered to him, too.

So, Bill, credit where it's due. You've earned some confidence. You've earned some applause. But here's the thing about raising expectations: Once you show me what you're capable of, I'm not particularly interested in watching you settle for less.

Now show me more.

Show me you can win at home. Not simply survive another fourth-quarter adventure, but take care of business against a Syracuse team whose 2–4 record might tempt an undisciplined football program to start thinking about next Saturday before finishing this one. And that would be a mistake.

Syracuse has lost 11 consecutive ACC games, but don't confuse a bad record with an inability to play football. The Orange possess the nation's 12th-ranked passing attack, averaging approximately 291 yards per game, despite cycling through four quarterbacks. Receiver Umari Hatcher has 784 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, including a 224-yard performance against Louisville. That's not an offense you dismiss. That's an offense you prepare for.

And Fran Brown isn't bringing his players to Chapel Hill to admire the fall foliage. He's bringing a frustrated football team that has been close enough to winning to know what losing feels like. Those players are tired of it, their coach desperately needs a breakthrough, and everybody enjoys winning in beautiful Kenan Stadium. Especially the visitors.

But here's the larger point, Bill. Something extraordinary is waiting on the other side of Syracuse.

The No. 1 team in America is coming to Chapel Hill.

Miami. Prime-time television. Kenan Stadium. The kind of national stage Carolina football has spent years trying to make meaningful.

Imagine the atmosphere if Carolina enters that game riding three consecutive victories, including two on the road against Pittsburgh and Duke. Imagine a confident team, an energized fan base, and a national audience watching to see whether Bill Belichick's Carolina experiment has finally become something worth taking seriously. Now imagine the alternative: stumbling against Syracuse, spending the following week explaining what went wrong, and welcoming the nation's top-ranked team while trying to recover from an entirely avoidable disappointment.

No, thank you.

That's why Saturday matters beyond Saturday. Great programs don't merely rise to extraordinary occasions. They handle ordinary business so those extraordinary occasions actually mean something.

Bill, you've shown me resilience. You've shown me toughness. You've even shown me that you appreciate Carolina's traditions. Now show me discipline, consistency, and the ability to protect momentum. Beat Syracuse. Give your players the opportunity to welcome No. 1 Miami with confidence instead of regret, and give Carolina fans a reason to believe that next Saturday might be something more than a nationally televised appearance.