Week 6 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Hope you ordered your coffee with an extra shot because we know you were up late watching Jacksonville State - Middle Tennessee State & Florida International - New Mexico State. Don’t tell your significant other, but starting next week there will be college football on TV for 5 out of 7 days of the week through Thanksgiving thanks to a new TV contract between Conference USA & the Sun Belt with CBS & ESPN. Our network overlords are going to shove some pretty interesting games on these Tuesday/Wednesday night slots starting with App State - Coastal Carolina next Tuesday. MACtion will start in November so we can collectively wonder why Toledo & Buffalo fans willingly sit on metal bleachers for 3 hours in the snow, but before we get there, Week 6 is looking mighty interesting so without further ado, let’s get to it!

7 Week 6 Games to Watch

#23 LSU (3-2) @ #21 Missouri (5-0): LSU -5.5, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Why is LSU still ranked? We’re not sure. Regardless, LSU is an 8-point road favorite against Missouri on Saturday, and this one screams “upset alert” to at least one of us. LSU’s offense has certainly looked the part so far, but my goodness is their secondary bad. Meanwhile, Missouri has the SEC’s best wide receiver in Luther Burden, a true sophomore who was the #1 receiver in the country coming out of high school. LSU’s mental toughness has come into question multiple times this season, and color us very skeptical that a noon kickoff on the road against an undefeated team is where the LSU Tigers start proving to the world that they’re actually very good. This will be a very interesting one to watch, not only because of the implications for the SEC East and West races but also because this game has the potential to turn into a high-scoring, explosive affair. Should be a fun one.

Maryland (5-0) @ #4 Ohio State (4-0): Ohio State -19.5, O/U 58 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

A lot of eyes will be on Columbus this weekend to see how Ohio State handles Maryland’s aerial assault. As a tribute to their mascot perhaps, the Terps tend to get off to slow starts, but once their offense is clicking, they’re hard to stop. We do not recommend the ‘slow start’ strategy if they want to fix their 0-8 all-time record against the Buckeyes. The Terps offense is led by QB Taulia Tagovailoa who has a litany of receivers and tight ends to throw to as 6 players have at least 11 catches on the year. Ohio State’s offense and WR group is the bright, shiny object of adoration, but their defense has quietly become one of the nation's best. The Buckeye’s pass defense ranks among the best in the country and just ask Sam Hartman if you don’t believe us. A victory would be shocking, but a close or competitive loss by the Terps would certainly raise some eyebrows in Ann Arbor & Happy Valley as everyone assumed it’d be a three-horse race between Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State for the Big 10 East crown. Maryland’s arrival onto the competitive landscape would provide some additional intrigue for the conference as they host the Wolverines & Nittany Lions in November.

#12 Oklahoma (5-0) vs #3 Texas (5-0): Texas -6.5, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC - in Dallas, TX

For the first time since 2009, both Texas and Oklahoma enter the Red River Showdown undefeated. In the final year of Big 12 play for both of these teams, they are the clear favorites in the conference, and both are legitimate college football playoff contenders. This Texas team appears to be truly different than past Longhorn teams by continuing to look extremely strong against everybody they have played since beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Oklahoma has been a little bit harder to figure out - they have absolutely dominated extremely inferior competition but struggled offensively against SMU and Cincinnati. The Longhorns are rightfully favored here, but this game has a tendency to become ridiculously absurd and the underdog often wins. Tune into this one people, it is going to be awesome.

#13 Washington State (4-0) @ UCLA (3-1): UCLA -3.5, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 3:00pm ET PAC12 Network

If this is your first chance to watch Washington State’s electrifying quarterback Cam Ward… well, you’re shit outta luck because this game is on the PAC12 Network. We seriously cannot wait for that God-forsaken channel to cease to exist, even if all 27 of its viewers end up heartbroken over it. It’s time for some illegal streaming which we do not condone. Regardless, this is a super interesting matchup when it comes to the race for the PAC-12 title and a possible College Football Playoff appearance. UCLA’s 5-star true freshman quarterback Dante Moore will have to go toe-to-toe with Ward to hang around in this one, and it should be a blast to watch these two massively talented quarterbacks go back and forth. UCLA (along with USC) kicked off the demise of the PAC-12 in the summer of 2022 when both schools left the conference to join the Big Ten. We don’t mean to be repetitive, but boy oh boy are we hoping Wazzu sticks it to the Bruins on their way out the door. Go Cougs.

#11 Alabama (4-1) @ Texas A&M (4-1): Alabama -2.5, O/U 47 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

The matchup between Alabama and Texas A&M has become must-watch television in recent years, and we expect Saturday’s game between the Crimson Tide and the Aggies to be no different. Texas A&M head coach and certified dipshit Jimbo Fisher could really use this one - the price of oil is at a record high. The Aggies are the third most talented team in the SEC and without a doubt have the horses to play with this Alabama team. The Aggies’ defensive line is really starting to round into form and has started to look like possibly the best position unit in the entire SEC. That is a massive advantage for A&M because it seems that if you are able to slow Alabama’s running game down, the Tide might be completely f*cked. Bama QB Jalen Milroe may have to play the game of his life to pull this one out in College Station. Strap in folks, this one could be a classic.

#10 Notre Dame (5-1) @ #25 Louisville (5-0): Notre Dame -6.5, O/U 54 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

For the third straight week, Notre Dame has to face an undefeated, ranked team which is a pretty impressive - or unlucky - streak at this point in the season. Assuming USC beats Arizona this weekend, it’ll be four straight undefeated opponents for the Irish when they play next weekend in South Bend. As for the game at hand, Louisville has a very explosive offense behind RB Jawhar Jordan & WR Jamari Thrash. QB Jack Plummer is incredibly average and needs to not throw red zone interceptions like he did last week if Louisville has any chance of winning this game. However explosive Louisville’s offense is, Notre Dame has a distinct advantage in the trenches and defense always travels. Expect Jeff Brohm to have some trick plays up his sleeve to keep the Irish on their heels.

#25 Fresno State (5-0) @ Wyoming (4-1): Fresno State -6, O/U 46 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

Starting next year, the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion will make it to the College Football Playoff. If that were to take place this year, Fresno State would be the clear frontrunner to be playing one of Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, USC, Notre Dame, etc. Now obviously that’s not happening this year, but this is the type of game you’ll be wanting to keep an eye on in the years to come. Undefeated Fresno State is the modern-day Boise, and they’re playing against one of the other top G5 teams in Wyoming, whose only loss was to Texas in a game they were tied 10-10 in the 4th quarter. Don’t let the names of the teams fool you - this is an awesome matchup that you should tune in to. Pretty soon, this type of game will have national championship implications.

5 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

Marshall (4-0) @ N.C. State (3-2): NCST -6.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 2:00pm ET The CW

On Monday, we opined that N.C. State should consider benching QB Brennan Armstrong and start MJ Morris. We can only assume State head coach Dave Doeren reads 4th & Forever because that’s exactly what he announced on Monday afternoon. Morris is a 6’2 dual-threat QB who has a decent deep ball and starter experience. After State QB Devin Leary was injured last year, he started & won against Virginia Tech and Wake before he suffered his own season-ending injury against Boston College. Credit to Doeren for making this move, but this is a 4-0 Marshall team with a really good defense and a phenomenal head coach in Charles Huff who knocked off Notre Dame last year in South Bend. Be careful puppies!

Syracuse (4-1) @ #14 UNC (4-0): UNC -8.5, O/U 60 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

A rare matchup between ACC foes as these two teams have only played twice since Syracuse joined the ACC in 2013. Speaking of, we cannot wait for the ACC and every other conference to finally get rid of divisions because we know every Carolina fan has been pining for more matchups against their Yankee brethren. Anyways, Syracuse was expectedly exposed as a fraud as Clemson’s defense held this offense to under 300 total yards last weekend. Cuse QB Garret Shrader is a nightmare to prep for given his running ability. Syracuse also has an above-average defense but failed their test last weekend to the only decent offense they’ve faced this year. Don’t be looking ahead to next week, Heels…

Arkansas (2-3) @ #16 Ole Miss (4-1): Ole Miss -11.5, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET SECN

Maybe Arkansas sucks. Maybe Ole Miss will do what Ole Miss does and end up irrelevant at the end of the year. But for now, this is one of the most exciting matchups of the weekend. This game has a tendency to produce some absurd results, Vaught-Hemingway will be rocking, and this one could go a long way in determining who wins the SEC West as either Alabama or Texas A&M will be taking another loss on Saturday. Keep an eye on this one.

Georgia Tech (2-3) @ #17 Miami (4-0): Miami -20.5, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

If it seems like Miami has fallen off the map since their 48-33 win over Texas A&M a few weeks ago it’s not because of rising ocean levels, it’s because since then they eviscerated Bethune-Cookman & Temple and then had an off week. QB Tyler Van Dyke has been really good this year after his horrendous 2022 campaign, and Miami needs some momentum before their monster matchup in Chapel Hill next weekend.

#15 Oregon State (4-1) @ Cal (3-2): OSU -9.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 10:00pm ET PAC12 Network

If this is your first chance to watch Cal’s electrifying running back Jaydn Ott… well, you’re shit outta luck because this game is on the PAC12 Network. Oregon State heads to Berkeley and faces the Bears who should be 4-1 if they didn’t implode against Auburn. Along with QB DJ Uiagalelei, RB Damien Martinez is a hoss, and RB/WR Silas Bolden might be the fastest man in CFB - or at least looks like it sprinting down the sidelines in the Beavs traffic cone orange uniforms. Oregon State is a very balanced, well-coached team but needs to be careful because #PAC12AfterDark always provides some shenanigans.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (5-0): Between the Hedges at 7:00pm on ESPN, in under-60-degree weather? Let’s do it. Despite all of the doubt around this team so far this season, the Dawgs enter October as a 5-0 team, as the #1 team in the country, and remain the odds-on favorite to win the national championship - I’m not going to do too much complaining. Kentucky comes in 5-0 as well, and as the #20 team in the country according to the AP Poll. The Wildcats plodded their way through a boring, easy schedule during their first four weeks of the season, seemingly getting ready for their first real test against #22 Florida last week. How did they do on that test, you ask? They crushed it. Kentucky absolutely mauled the Gators at the line of scrimmage and put the game away early. The Wildcats have now won three straight against Florida after losing 31 (yes, thirty-one) consecutive matchups against the Gators from 1987-2018. This isn’t your dad’s Kentucky football program.

Running back Ray Davis ran for 280 yards (!!) and 3 touchdowns against a very formidable Florida defensive line, and Kentucky’s offensive line seems to be stepping up to the task this season after a brutal year for the unit in 2021. QB Devin Leary, who had a great career at N.C. State before transferring to Kentucky this summer, continues to improve from week to week, and WR Barion Brown is the best wideout Kentucky has had in several years. Defensively, the Wildcats are led by defensive lineman Deon Walker (#0), who at 6’6 and 340 pounds, will remind Georgia fans a lot of Jordan Davis. Walker is an extremely versatile player - Kentucky has lined him up at seemingly every position on the defensive line this season - including dropping him back in coverage - and Walker never seems to miss a beat. He is twitchy, he is strong, and he is relentless. Blocking this guy will be a huge test for Georgia’s offensive line on Saturday.

It’s no secret that Mark Stoops’ Kentucky program is built around physicality first and foremost. Georgia has made a habit of dominating SEC rivals over the past two years, but this Kentucky team always gives the Dawgs trouble. Last year, Kentucky’s defense gave Georgia’s offense hell, holding them to 16 points in Lexington. In 2021, a year that saw Georgia blowout just about everybody, Kentucky hung with Georgia in Athens better than anyone else did for the entire season. The game between these two programs is always a slugfest, and I’m betting Saturday will be no different.

For the Dawgs, the areas of emphasis continue to be the same. Georgia needs to come out ready to go from the opening kickoff, Georgia needs to be a better run-blocking team, Georgia needs more attention to detail and effort from the defense. Most of all, Georgia needs to get the ball to Brock Bowers as much as humanly possible. Kentucky is a damn good team that we cannot afford to fool around with. This is a huge opportunity for this team to prove that they are still the team to beat in college football - let’s prove it on Saturday.

Wake Forest (3-1): The Deacs reward for sitting at home last weekend is getting to go to Clemson and play the Tigers at 3:30pm ET on the ACC Network. The Deacs are 21-point underdogs, and the O/U is 51.5 for those interested. Wake hasn’t won in Death Valley since 1998 or beaten Clemson outright since 2008. A few days after the 2008 loss, Clemson head coach Terry Bowden resigned, and Dabo Swinney took over. Apologies to the CFB world. I could give you the usual game breakdown of who to watch for on Clemson’s defensive line (spoiler: everybody), or what Wake needs to do in order to pull off the upset (hint: everything). Instead, let’s take a trip down memory lane and relive the pain and suffering Clemson has inflicted on Lil Ol’ Wake Forest.

1967: As legend has it, some Clemson alum willingly went to Death Valley, CA, saw a big rock, and thought, “Clemson’s football team could really use this.” Said alum S.C. Jones lugged that rock 3,000 miles back to South Carolina and placed it on top of The Hill which ‘inspired’ Clemson to come back from 18 down and beat Virginia 40-35 in 1966. When was the first time players started to rub it on their way down to the field? A 1967 win over the Deacs 23-6.

1981: #3 Clemson and head coach Danny Ford beat the Deacs 82-24 which is still the record for most points scored by a team in an ACC game. Earlier in the year, Clemson beat #4 Georgia & politician sophomore running back Herschel Walker 13-3. Don’t think you’re spared from this exercise Dawg fans. Clemson went on to win their first national title that year.

2004: After walloping Clemson 45-17 the year before in Winston, Wake opened the season in Death Valley behind star RB Chris Barclay who would go on to win ACC Player of the Year. After rallying from 16 points down, Barclay scored on a 50-yard run to put the Deacs up by eight in the fourth quarter. Naturally and also foreshadowing the coming years, Clemson scored a touchdown and converted the 2-point conversion to send the game to overtime after a pass interference call against the Deacs on fourth-and-goal extended the drive. After trading field goals in the first OT, Clemson QB Charlie Whitehurst threw a touchdown pass to go up 37-30 in the second. Freshmen QB Ben Mauk (yes, older brother of future Mizzou QB Maty) was 3 of 4 for 101 yards and TD in the game, but head coach Jim Grobe opted to put in dual threat and incumbent starting QB Cory Randolph for the second OT where he threw 3 incompletions and the Deacs lost. On a personal note, this was one of the first Wake games I can remember watching. After Wake lost, I walked around my front yard crying in my Cory Randolph jersey. At least the pain & suffering started at a young age.

2006: Wake Forest’s dream season and ensuing ACC Championship wouldn’t be complete without a 4th quarter collapse at the hands of the Tigers, would it? Wake was unranked but 5-0 playing host to the 4-1 and 15th-ranked Clemson. The Deacs took a 17-3 lead into the fourth quarter until a muffed hold on a field goal attempt let DL Gaines Adams annihilate our holder, recover the loose ball, and run 66 yards for the touchdown. From there, Wake went fumble, punt, interception as Clemson came back to win 27-17. This was an ugly, ugly game with 9 total turnovers, and Wake only had 219 total yards of offense. Fun names to remember from this game: Clemson RBs CJ Spiller & James Davis, WR Jacoby Ford, WR Coach Dabo Swinney, TE Coach Billy Napier who now coaches Florida. There isn’t enough space to list out all the Wake players I’d like to mention here, but TE Zac Selmon is currently the AD at Mississippi State and will be first in line for the Oklahoma AD role once Joe Castiglione retires. And who was Zac Selmon’s TE Coach for this game? One Tommy Elrod who caused the WakeyLeaks scandal.

2011: Wake held a respectable 5-4 record entering Death Valley but was coming off a 24-17 loss to Notre Dame after their first-ever visit to Winston. The winner would control the ACC Atlantic Division even though Clemson was 8-1 and ranked 9th in the country. Wake forced a fumble and picked off QB Tajh Boyd twice as the Deacs held a 28-14 lead in the third quarter. After a Clemson touchdown, Wake missed a 32-yard field goal, and Clemson responded with another touchdown to tie the game 28-28 with 3 minutes to go. Wake then went three and out and Clemson drove down the field only to miss their own 30-yard field goal attempt with 1 minute to go. Wake punted the ball back to Clemson with 46 seconds left who stormed down the field and Chandler Catanzaro kicked a 43-yard walk-off field goal. Fun names who played in this game: Clemson WRs DeAndre Hopkins & Sammy Watkins, RB Andre Ellington, TE Dwayne Allen, and DE Andre Branch. Wake WR Matt James - yes, Bachelor Matt James - RB Josh Harris & Brandon Pendergrass, DLs Zach Thompson & Nikita Whitlock, and LB Kyle Wilbur.

2021: Oh, another season where Wake marches to the ACC Championship Game but can’t overcome Clemson? Where have we seen this before? Wake and QB Sam Hartman were 9-1, ranked 10th in the country, and averaging over 44 points and almost 500 yards per game. Clemson was 7-3 and struggling offensively under new QB DJ Uiagalelei. Clemson’s offense hadn’t managed to score more than 30 points against a team not named South Carolina State or UConn and DJU looked like a lost puppy all season long. There was a lot of talk and hype about Wake finally being able to break the losing streak to Clemson and this would be their golden opportunity. Then the game started, and Wake got boat raced. Clemson ran for 333 yards compared to Wake’s 36, Hartman threw a pick and fumbled as the Deacs lost 48-27.

2022: Just this past Tuesday, Clawson said the following in reference to last year’s Clemson game. “There are certain games in your career you never, ever get over. That’s one of them. When I’m on my deathbed, that game will still bother me. Hopefully, our players feel the same way.” Not only could Wake have broken their Clemson losing streak if they won this one, but it also would’ve snapped their 0-62 record against AP Top 10 teams. Sigh. Alright, let’s rip off the band aid. Wake QB Sam Hartman led a high-flying offensive attack against the offensively inept and fifth-ranked Tigers. Both teams were 3-0 and the winner would be in the driver's seat for the Atlantic Division ACC Championship spot. I’ll let you watch the highlights yourself, but Wake’s defense allowed QB DJ Uiagalelei to throw for 371 yards, 5 TDs, and no interceptions. Clemson nailed a 52-yard field goal late in the 4th quarter to tie it 38-38 and Wake couldn’t get into field goal range before OT. After trading TDs in the first period, Clemson scored a TD and Wake went 0-yard rush, incompletion, 4-yard rush, incompletion to end the game. I think the football gods got tired of coming up with ways for Wake to lose so they’re reusing and to make matters worse, combining old scripts. This is still a very fresh wound, but reading the content above makes it a little bit easier, actually maybe worse. I don’t know, I’m numb to it all. Go Deacs.

Tate’s Great Picks (8-19)

USF (3-2) @ UAB (1-4): USF -3.5, O/U 69 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPN2

Pick - USF -3.5: My only focus is to get this record somewhere near respectable. UAB sucks, and USF has a ton of upside. I really think this one will hit. Go Bulls (shoutout Papa).

#2 Michigan (5-0) @ Minnesota (3-2): Michigan -19, O/U 46 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Michigan -19: Michigan may start slow as they’ve done all year, and they may look uninspiring for most, if not all, of this game. But this Wolverine team has a way of choking life out of opponents, and this Minnesota team is short of breath at the moment. Did you know Michigan’s defense hasn’t had an opponent inside of their 10-yard line yet this season? Seriously, they have not faced a goal-to-go situation yet this year. God their schedule sucks. Ride the fighting Harbaughs here.

Colorado (3-2) @ Arizona State (1-4): Colorado -4.5, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 6:30pm ET PAC12N

Pick - Colorado -4.5: Colorado has scored with ease on everybody except for Oregon up to this point, and Arizona State is far from Oregon. ASU’s quarterbacks are literally all hurt, they have one of the worst rosters in the PAC 12, and Deion and his squad will be determined to get a big, impressive win after two straight weeks of brutal losses. Sko Buffs.

Arizona (3-2) @ #9 USC (5-0): USC -21.5, O/U 72 - Saturday 10:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Game Total Over 72: Arizona is a scrappy, hard-working team that took Washington to the wire last Saturday. USC is going to score a million points and, unless the world stops rotating this weekend, will give up a million points. Arizona can score - I think we’ll fly over the over here.

Virginia Tech (2-3) @ #5 FSU (4-0): FSU -24, O/U 53: Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Pick - FSU -24: Virginia Tech is one of the worst Power Five teams in years, while FSU is one of the best teams in the country, coming off a bye, and really needs a statement win. I swear to you that if FSU does not cover this spread I will post a video on YouTube of Rand hitting me in the head with a baseball bat.

Central Michigan @ Buffalo: CMU -3, O/U 52.5: Saturday 2:00pm ET ESPN+

Pick - CMU -3: Central Michigan is pretty good. Buffalo is really, really, really bad. I mean this just has to hit, right? If this doesn’t hit I’ll burn down my local WalMart.

The Underdog ML Sprinkle Parlay (which is 1-1 on the year) will be Washington State ML, Missouri ML, and Texas A&M ML. This one has great value, so hop on board and have fun with me, because I’ve never gotten a bet wrong before.

OnlyRans (17-18)

Colorado (3-2) @ Arizona State (1-4): Colorado -4.5, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 6:30pm ET PAC12N

Pick - Colorado -4.5 & Game Total Under 60.5: Good luck trying to watch this game as it also gets the PAC-12 Network treatment. This Arizona State defense gave USC fits a few weeks ago but what’s the fun in betting against the Buffs and cute, lil Ralphie? The Arizona state-mandated night game policy is over now that we’re out of September, but it’ll be a trillion degrees here. I think Colorado covers in a close game, but Arizona sits on the ball with muscle hamster RB Cameron Skattebo as the under hits.

#23 LSU (3-2) @ #21 Missouri (5-0): LSU -5.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - LSU -5.5: I think people and therefore the market are overreacting to LSU’s horrendous defensive performance last week against Ole Miss. The Rebs have one of the best offenses in CFB and LSU was very, very close to winning last week's game at the buzzer. Mizzou boasts a high-powered offense themselves, but they’ve been playing with fire all season, needing a walk-off 60+ yarder to beat Kansas State, beat Middle Tennessee by 4, and Memphis by 7. Geaux Tigers.

#11 Alabama (4-1) @ Texas A&M (4-1): Alabama -2.5, O/U 47 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick - Bama -2.5: There will be lots of talk about Texas A&M’s recent upsets, near upsets, and covers over the Tide. I also think people are betting this line down in the Aggie's favor because Bama QB Jalen Milroe doesn’t look completely comfortable passing the ball. Somewhat fair, but he had to do it in order to keep up with Texas’ offense. Texas A&M has offensive firepower but is still breaking in backup QB Max Johnson. I will also remind you that Milroe didn’t play in the USF game where Bama mustered 17 points. Last week against Mississippi State he was 10/12 for 164 yards but averaged 13.7 yards/completion. I’ll put it another way. What do you think is more likely: an outright TAMU win or a close game but Bama wins by a field goal or more? Bet against Saban at your own risk.

Marshall (4-0) @ N.C. State (3-2): NCST -6.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 2:00pm ET The CW

Pick - Marshall +6.5: New N.C. State QB MJ Morris is certainly talented, but his starts last year did not come under this offensive coordinator and there’s a reason he didn’t win the job during fall camp. Marshall has a bell-cow RB in Rasheen Ali and a very stout defense that should give the Wolfpack problems. Expect a low-scoring, close game in Raleigh but the Pack to win in the end. Or they just straight-up lose which would be hilarious.

San Jose State (1-4) @ Boise State (2-3): Boise -9.5, O/U 59 - Saturday 8:00pm ET CBSSN

Pick - Boise State -9.5: San Jose State is just straight-up bad but Boise is less bad. Give me the Broncos at home on the Smurf Turf.

USF (3-2) @ UAB (1-4): USF -3.5, O/U 69 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPN2

Pick - USF -3.5: This line is approaching lock of the week territory. USF is much improved under new head coach Alex Golesh who brought his explosive offense over from Tennessee. UAB’s head coach Trent Dilfer is in way over his head and spent last weekend screaming at his assistants like a toddler.

Maryland (5-0) @ #4 Ohio State (4-0): Ohio State -19.5, O/U 58 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Ohio State -19.5 & Game Total Under 58: This line snuck under 3 TDs why? Maryland’s offense looks pretty on paper, but they have not faced a defense even half as good as Ohio State’s. Forget defense, tell me their most impressive win is between Towson, Charlotte, Virginia, Michigan State, and Indiana. Ohio State is coming off a bye and they still have some stuff to work out on offense which is why I don’t think the over hits here.

#12 Oklahoma (5-0) vs #3 Texas (5-0): Texas -6.5, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC - in Dallas, TX

Pick - Oklahoma +6.5: I think Oklahoma is being slept on a little bit here given the 49-0 result last year and Texas’ big win against Bama this year. OU head coach Brent Venables has an offense capable of keeping up with the Horns, and a defense to match. If Texas wins in a rout, I’ll eat my words and proclaim that they are, in fact, back. Until then…Boomer!

#20 Kentucky (5-0) @ #1 Georgia (5-0): UGA -14.5, O/U 49 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Kentucky +14.5 & Game Total Under 49: Georgia hasn’t covered once this year so why start now? Kentucky has a better rushing attack than Auburn who just hung 213 rushing yards on the Dawgs. The half-point hook is the only reason I’m taking this bet given this game is between the hedges (no, I will not capitalize that) at night. Sanford Stadium will be rocking but Kirby and Stoops will turn this game into a rock fight. If the O/U were 49 in every game Georgia and Kentucky have played this year, the over would’ve hit in only 4/10 contests. Is that an accurate measuring stick for this O/U? Not really, but it fits my narrative. I will be changing my phone number if Kentucky +14.5 doesn’t hit.

For my money line upset of the week give me Washington State ML against UCLA. I think the more experienced QB Cam Ward outplays freshman QB Dante Moore who looked like a deer in the headlights his last time out against Utah.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: I’m making my biennial pilgrimage to Clemson to watch the Deacs play in Death Valley. I think I spilled enough ink above on what I expect to happen in this game but nonetheless, Go Deacs.

TS: I’m headed up to Athens with my dad this weekend to watch a night game at Sanford Stadium between the #1 Georgia Bulldogs and an undefeated conference opponent. It really doesn’t get much better than that, does it? I made a f*ck ton of boiled peanuts, the temperature will be in the 50’s during the game, and I’m going to be the happiest human alive. HBTFD.

Hope you have a fantastic weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.