Nothing to See Here: Week 5 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. It’s been another normal week in college football with a starting QB quitting his 3-0 team due to unpaid NIL promises, the future of two conferences hinging on Utah State, and Reggie Bush suing the NCAA, USC, and whatever the Pac-12 currently is. That’s all in the rearview mirror for the time being because it’s officially Week 5. We have one of the season’s most anticipated games taking place Saturday night and a plethora of other banger games to distract us from the off-field anarchy of the sport. We’re not sponsored by Aflac yet but you’ll find a trivia question and bar facts in this edition as well as undisputable betting locks just as we’ve provided all season so let’s get rolling.

Yes, this Game

#2 Georgia (3-0) @ #4 Alabama (3-0): UGA -1.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

The game that’s been circled since the 2024 schedule was announced last year takes place in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night, as Georgia travels through a hurricane to take on Alabama.

Let’s get right into it, shall we? Alabama has not yet played anybody, and they have looked relatively shaky in certain facets of the game despite (mostly) blowing out all three opponents thus far. Georgia has taken on both Clemson and Kentucky already, and we all know how both of those games went. Despite the differences in schedules thus far, we somehow really don’t know much about either team yet.

What we do know about Alabama is this - offensively, they are the same thing they were last year but with better coaching. They are a still run-focused team that, through the air, is solely and totally focused on hitting explosives. But they are more multiple in the run game than they were under Saban and Tommy Rees last year because Kalen Deboer is far from scared to build his offense around the fact that his QB is one of the most incredible athletes we’ve ever seen play the position. His receivers are much better than they were last year, too, with 17-year-old freshman Ryan Williams being one of the stories of the country thus far. The thought process when playing Alabama is that you need to contain Milroe on the ground, but you can go about that in a little bit of a different method when you have the athletes that Georgia has. I think Georgia’s priority here should be to force Milroe to hit those shots over and over again. Key on him in the run game - I’m expecting an important game from Raylen Wilson, who can run with Milroe, and a statement game from Jalon Walker - and make him stay in there and deliver time and time again against Cover 1-ish looks with Malaki roaming around up top. Will he hit some? Absolutely. But he has not yet been forced to do this against a secondary that can legitimately play with his receivers, so if he beats us that way, so be it. But we know that he and his run game can beat you if you let it, so… don’t him run left, right, and up the middle. Make him deliver throws from the pocket to beat you, and heat him up with Raylen, Jalon, and Smael Mondon from unique looks. If we can pull that off, we can beat this team by two touchdowns.

Alternatively, though, there’s Georgia’s offense vs. Alabama’s defense. What do we really know about these two units? Georgia has not yet even attempted to push the ball downfield against the two FBS opponents they’ve played, and they thoroughly struggled at times against Kentucky. At the same time, Alabama’s secondary has busted several coverages in every game they’ve played this year, and their secondary is very green. Malachi Moore is experienced but coming out of concussion protocol this week, and the rest of the secondary so far looks like a far cry from the guys Saban had every year. The Dawgs need to, early and often, challenge Alabama down the field. Whether that’s establishing ourselves on the ground to open that up, or opening that up to establish the run game, I don’t know. But Georgia cannot come into this game expecting to successfully run the ball (and throw it around the line of scrimmage) for four straight quarters against Alabama. The same way Alabama has the chance to beat us by two touchdowns, we have the same chance to do that to them. We just have to attempt to do it rather than playing safe to ensure it’s a three point game in the 4th quarter and hoping for the best from there. Challenge Alabama, Dawgs. Make them play on their feet for once.

With both teams coming off of a bye, I think this might be one of the highest-level of UGA vs Bama games we have ever seen. A couple of key players are questionable to return (Mykel Williams for UGA, Qua Russaw for Bama), but overall these two teams are about as healthy and well-rested as they’re going to be all season long. Both teams have spoken all week about their emphasis on playing “attacking” football, and the stylistic matchup makes it likely that both squads are going to need to try to deliver the ball downfield and get their run games going downhill at all costs. The 2011 and 2019 Alabama/LSU games come to mind when you start breaking down the fact that the majority of the guys on the field on Saturday are going to be Sunday players. We’ve played some classic games against the Tide over the past 15 years, but I think we may get the all time best version of UGA vs. Alabama on Saturday night.

Georgia pulls it off in the final minute with a field goal to win 26-24.

Top Week 5 Games to Watch

#20 Oklahoma State (3-1) @ #23 Kansas State (3-1): KSU -4.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Both of these two preseason Big 12 title contenders are coming off ass-whoopings to other Big 12 contenders (OSU to Utah, Kansas State to BYU) last weekend. Oklahoma State came into the year with a legitimate Heisman contender in Ollie Gordon at running back, but Gordon has been entirely swallowed up so far this year. Yes, the Pokes’ offensive line is pretty bad and teams are keying on the run because those teams also don’t respect QB Alan Bowman (who is on the verge of getting benched, by the way), but Gordon has also looked much more like an elderly man carrying groceries with the ball in his hands than one of the best players in the country like we expected him to be. Defensively, Oklahoma State has been atrocious, letting Arkansas almost double them in yards gained a few weeks ago and then letting a Cam Rising-less Utah offense go up and down the field on them multiple times. If you couldn’t tell by now, we think this Oklahoma State team is pretty bad right now, but we’ve seen this from Mike Gundy teams before - they often look god-awful for several weeks (like when they lost 34-7 to South Alabama last year) and then start looking like they’re maybe the best team in the entire Big 12. So we can’t write them off yet, especially because…

…Kansas State hasn’t exactly looked like one of the two best teams in the Big 12 that we predicted them to be, either. Similar to OSU, K-State’s defense has looked much worse than expected so far which is concerning because that is historically the staple of a good Wildcat team. Highly touted Sophomore QB Avery Johnson - the guy that KSU let Will Howard walk to Ohio State to start - has looked uncomfortable as a pocket passer so far this year, making KSU’s offense one-dimensional which has put them in bad positions at times already this season. But just like the Pokes’ Kansas State is incredibly well-coached under Chris Kleiman and will no doubt continue to improve as the season goes along. These two teams have not impressed us yet, but the winner of this game will remain in the thick of the Big 12 title race - and therefore a playoff spot - while the loser will have to do some soul-searching. We’re excited to see which team is in which position on Saturday afternoon.

#15 Louisville (3-0) @ #16 Notre Dame (3-1): ND -6.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET Peacock

Finally! We get to see Louisville in a high-profile game for the first time since the ACC Championship last year when FSU won 16-6 despite their backup QB throwing for 55 total yards. Dating back to the start of last year when head coach Jeff Brohm made his debut, Louisville has won every game they’re supposed to and lost the few they were underdogs in. N.C. State fans should take a page out of the Cards book and realize consistency is not a reason to fire your head coach. Louisville is coming into the contest banged up following their 31-19 win over Georgia Tech last week. Star CB Quincy Riley might not play but it probably doesn’t matter against Irish QB Riley Leonard who has thrown 1 TD pass the entire season. This matchup will be won on the ground when Notre Dame’s dominant rushing attack runs into the teeth of the Louisville D which is ceding an 18th-best nationally 87 yards/game.

Another loss by the Irish will knock them out of playoff contention and the hot-seat chatter around Marcus Freeman would start right back up. At least they can hide behind the Peacock paywall if they lose here. The offense has seemingly regressed under Leonard and toast of the town OC hire Mike Denbrock who engineered Jayden Daniels’ Heisman season last year. However, a win here would quell concerns until they inevitably lose to Stanford or Virginia as 2+ TD favorites. Like Miami, Louisville has played a bunch of cadavers and has proved nothing other than our ability to say “hey, they look pretty good.” With matchups left on the schedule against the aforementioned Hurricanes and Clemson, Louisville can stake its claim as an ACC favorite by going into South Bend and beating the Irish which is no easy feat unless you’re a MAC team.

#19 Illinois (4-0) @ #9 Penn State (3-0): PSU -19, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Illinois was the latest benefactor of an unforgivable yet hilariously predictable choke job by the Cornhuskers. We said it last week, but the improvement of QB Luke Altmeyer is substantial. His completion percentage and yards per attempt are way up but more importantly, he hasn’t thrown a single pick after throwing ten in nine games last year. Illinois has a balanced offense that won’t hang 45 points on you but they won’t give up that many either. This defense is 60 minutes of hell which is a staple of Bret Bielma’s Illinois and former Wisconsin and Arkansas teams. They’re playing well at the right time but now must head to Happy Valley where they’ve won just twice in twelve tries. This isn’t the famed White Out or Stripe Out game as those come later in the season but it’s still a night game in Happy Valley which is as intimidating of a road environment as it gets in the Big 10. But as we saw last week against Nebraska, defense travels. 

Penn State has gone incognito since the Week 1 victory over West Virginia and has since beaten Bowling Green 34-27, bye, and a 56-0 win over the worst team in the FBS, Kent State. Bowling Green took a 24-20 halftime lead against PSU but some defensive adjustments fended off a second Notre Dame-Northern Illinois occurrence. Like Altmeyer, Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar seems to have improved under new OC Andy Kotelnicki. He’s finally pushing the ball down the field which incredibly smart people like us have been begging to see for the past 2 years. Per usual Penn State has a nasty defense - aside from the 1H against Bowling Green - and a lethal 1-2 punch at RB with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen but in classic Big 10 fashion their leading receiver is a tight end who I’m sure will be on your fantasy teams come 2026. The chess match between the Illinois D and Penn State novel explosive offense will be a fun watch. As long as Allar doesn’t press he should be fine but the Illini are Big 10 leading +7 in the turnover battle with 7 picks to their name. 

Seven More Games to Watch if You’re a Sicko Like Us

Virginia Tech (2-2) @ #7 Miami (4-0): MIA -18.5, O/U 54.5 - Friday 7:30pm ET ESPN

This is an inflection point game where we might be able to simultaneously learn how good Miami is and how bad (or not) Virginia Tech is. The Hokies' two losses to Vandy and Rutgers are exaggerated by the historical expectations of all three programs. Both losses were by less than a touchdown and it’d be a reach to say the Hokies are bad, but rather not living up to their lofty preseason expectations. The problem for the Hokies is the limited improvement of QB Kyron Drones who is inconsistent, turnover-prone, and holds on to the ball too long resulting in 10 sacks on the year. The talent is seemingly there but he’s still raw. However, we’re reaching the point in his career where it might be time to say he is what he is. The second problem for the Hokies is their rush defense which has gotten abused by all four teams they’ve faced, including Marshall and Old Dominion. 

Miami is not the team you want to be facing when you can’t protect the quarterback or stop the run. Yes, Miami’s schedule to this point has been Charmin soft ranking #88 in SOS rankings. Even still, they lead the nation with 16 sacks on the year and are averaging 200 yards/game on the ground. Miami is a bad matchup for the Hokies, especially with the backfield stable of QB Cam Ward and RBs Damien Martinez, Mark Fletcher Jr., and Jordan Lyle. Not all hope is lost for the Hokies even in a potential blowout given their remaining schedule, but accepting their fate as a 6-6 Quick Lane Bowl participant will not sit right with the Hokie faithful.

Kentucky (2-2) @ #6 Ole Miss (4-0): MISS -17.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

The Wildcats head on down to Oxford to take on Ole Miss and while you may be wondering why we recommend putting some eyes on this game, this is our first opportunity to see what Ole Miss looks like against a team with a pulse. At his press conference on Monday, Lane Kiffin said, “I’m a realist. I don’t think our opponents have prepared us for SEC play. My hope is that our practice and our fall camp has prepared us. We agree, coach - Furman, Middle Tennessee State, Georgia Southern, and especially Wake Forest are far from the types of teams that get you ready to go through the grind that is an SEC schedule. Still though, the Rebels have looked incredible thus far offensively and have clearly made tremendous strides on the defensive side of the ball, too. Jaxson Dart and his receivers have been putting up video game numbers through the first four weeks, but we’re intrigued by how things look against a physical and well-coached Kentucky defense during an 11:00 am local kickoff. The Rebs need to win this one going away if we’re expecting them to be the national championship contender everyone is telling us they are.

#21 Oklahoma (3-1) @ Auburn (2-2): OKLA -2.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

This game is going to be complete ass, and we could not be more excited. Both Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables and Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze spent the early part of the week throwing their quarterbacks under the bus for results that are far from entirely their faults, albeit to different degrees. Oklahoma announced on Monday that true freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr - who replaced Jackson Arnold before halftime last week against Tennessee - will get the start. While it’s true that Hawkins had more success against the Vols than Arnold, we place the vast majority of the blame on this horrendous OU offensive line and its collection of injured receivers than we do on Arnold. 

Freeze, on the other hand, continues to double and triple down on absolving himself of any blame for his horrid QB play, as well as stating on Monday that “I’m telling you the hard truth is that if we play (Arkansas) nine more times, we’d beat them nine more times. That’s what’s hard to take.” Uhhhh, if you say so man. Perhaps God is only on his side nine times out of ten and he just didn’t pray hard enough last week? Regardless, Freeze is the laughingstock of the SEC right now and has coached himself into this being an all-out anxiety bowl on the Plains. This season could get off the rails quickly if they take another home loss here, and the momentum he seemed to be building early in his tenure is at risk of evaporating. Keep an eye on this one because we could once again get some hilarious QB play from both teams and potentially have much to discuss about the state of whichever program loses here.

Victory Bell: North Carolina (3-1) @ Duke (4-0): DUKE -2.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPN2

After the media firestorm Mack Brown created after threatening to quit following the JMU loss last week, there’s nothing more Mack and the UNC fans would like more than to bury the hatchet and move on. The only issue is Mack exacerbated the issue by not letting his players talk to the media following the JMU game or this week either. He’s not the first coach to pull this move and he won’t be the last but it shines the spotlight even brighter on the program. UNC is generally regarded as one of the most open and welcoming programs to the media unlike Alabama under Saban or any Lincoln Riley coached team. I’d like to give Mack credit for apologizing in his presser this week but there are a few issues with his apology I take umbrage with. First, he was annoyed that the comment was made in the locker room which used to be a “sacred” space. That’s convenient revisionist history and hypocritical because last year after State beat UNC 39-20, Pack coach Dave Doeren was caught on a hot mic in the locker calling the UNC team pieces of shit, and Mack nobly apologized on behalf of him. I’d forgotten that tidbit so thank you to Tar Heel Blog for the reminder on this. Second, Mack acknowledged how emotional he gets after losses and the worst things he says usually happen after them saying, “That’s just what I do.” Well next time I get pulled over for speeding I’ll just tell the cop I’m sorry but it’s just what I do and expect him to move on. 

As for the game itself, Vegas is expecting a close one in Durham. Duke is lucky to be 4-0 and only beat Northwestern and UConn by 11 points combined. Even so, really hard to gauge how good this team is given the level of competition. QB Maalik Murphy has decent stats but has thrown a pick in every single contest. RB Star Thomas has put up some pretty good numbers out of the backfield while WRs Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol have hauled in a combined 7 TDs on the year. Statistically, Duke’s defense is one of the best in the nation but again I’m not reading much into it given the competition. They have forced 8 turnovers on the year which is something to watch if you’re the Heels. On the flip side, we have a better grasp on what UNC is and what it isn’t. I’d ask UNC's defense to stop me if they’ve heard this before but they can’t, they’re a disaster. The JMU game was such a statistical aberration that it’s hard to even gauge how bad or if you’re a glass-half-full person, how not bad. The Heels still have RB Omarion Hampton who’s putting together another incredible year and if there’s one area Duke hasn’t looked good it’s in the rush defense. I expect Carolina to run him and then after that run him some more. I’m not moved by the eye candy of Jacolby Criswell’s 475 passing yards against JMU because the week before against NC Central he went 14/23 for 161 yards. The jury is still out on him, Duke, and Mack Brown’s job situation. I have less of a clue what’s going to happen here than Tate does in the Georgia-Bama game so this will be fun.

Florida State (1-3) @ SMU (3-1): SMU -6, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

We haven’t paid an iota of attention to SMU since the Week 0 escape against Nevada even though two of those games have been a close loss to BYU which is aging well and a beatdown of crosstown rival TCU last week. Some of that is because they’d be shoved into the spotlight for this game which, granted, 5 weeks ago was supposed to be an ACC showcase. The other half of it was we didn’t know what was going on at SMU. They went through an early season QB change between the incumbent Preston Stone and new starter Kevin Jennings. Insiders suspect head coach Rhett Lashlee wanted this to happen all along but needed to slow play it so his fans wouldn’t riot in the streets for benching the Third Team All-AAC quarterback from a year ago. Stone did look horrendous in the first few games of the year which has led to some injury speculation but Jennings hasn’t done much as the starter as he’s yet to throw for 150 yards in a game. 

Florida State, on the other hand, welcome to hell. The ACC not so subtly punished FSU for oh I don’t know but I’d guess it’d have to do with FSU suing them and publicly proclaiming their desire to leave a conference they’ve been a part of for 33 years. Now the Noles are getting sent to Dallas to face the Mustangs in their ACC opener after voting against them for joining the conference. Regardless of the outcome, the disdain on both sides will be palpable. DJU is still a trainwreck and they’re lucky they escaped the mob for at least a week. A 14-9 victory over Cal last week was aided by two missed Cal field goals under 40 yards. The defensive game plan against FSU is simple: stack the box to stop the run and blitz the hell out of DJU because you know he is not going to consistently beat you with his arm. On the season, FSU is averaging 2.35 yards/rush which is good for 263 yards total and 131st in the nation. They’re 124th and 116th in tackles for loss allowed and sacks allowed. This is also your weekly reminder that there are 134 FBS teams. The good news for FSU is the defense hasn’t been that bad. The defensive line is still talented and has improved dramatically in the past two weeks in the run blocking and pass rush. The problem is the past two weeks were against pocket-passing statues and not against Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos or Georgia Tech’s Haynes King who abused this defense. SMU’s Kevin Jennings is the latter group. 

Arizona (2-1) @ #10 Utah (4-0): UTAH -11, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 10:15pm ET ESPN

We said it about Penn State, but there are fewer environments in CFB as raucous as Rice-Eccles Stadium, and the Mormon prohibition on alcohol and caffeine makes it all the more impressive. We’re done guessing if Utah QB Cam Rising is going to play or not but this defense welcomes Arizona QB Noah Fifita and WR Tet McMillan to town. Arizona is coming off a bye which is perfect timing because last time out they laid a 31-7 egg against Kansas State. We don’t think Arizona is collectively good enough to knock off Utah but Fifita and McMillan are worth the price of a second screen because…

Washington State (4-0) @ #21 Boise State (2-1): BOIS -7.5, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 10:00pm ET FS1

PAC 12 After Dark is so incredibly back, and you could not possibly ask for a better late-night game on Saturday. Boise remains in the playoff hunt for the G5 spot, having only taken a very close loss to Oregon on the road thus far, and has a Heisman candidate running back in Ashton Jeanty (586 yards, 9 TDs), but… apparently both could also be said about Wazzu? The Cougars are 4-0, coming off the game of the weekend last week in their 54-52 thriller against San Jose State, and QB John Mateer is quietly one of the most awesome players in the entire country. Genuinely, there is not much more previewing that we need to do for this game - it’s going to be a bunch of incredible offensive players scoring points left and right while no defense is played whatsoever, and there are legitimate playoff implications - for both teams - on the line. Oh, and they’re playing it on a blue field. What more could you ask of a 10:00pm kick?

Bar Beatdowns

This group of games is called Bar Beatdowns because if you find yourself at a local bar this weekend one of these games will likely be on. That’s because all of these games involve a top 20 ranked playoff contender who’s favored by 2+ touchdowns (unless you’re Michigan lol). We expect them to romp but on the off chance they don’t we want to keep you abreast of the storylines to follow and arm you with nerdy facts to bore your significant other with.

Minnesota (2-2) @ #12 Michigan (3-1): Mich -9, O/U 35.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Reasons to watch: If you have an affinity for 1940s-era football. Michigan will win this one in ugly, bruising fashion. The only question is how many passing yards will QB Alex Orji finish with? Last week it was 32. Also, this is Michigan’s 5th home game in a row. The Big 10 better be sending them to Wisconsin & Minnesota in November next year. Minnesota’s Darius Taylor is one of the best backs in the conference when healthy but he’s not going to have fun here. 

Wisconsin (2-1) @ #13 USC (3-1): USC -15.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Reasons to watch: USC limps back to LA after giving the game away last weekend against Michigan. The trajectory for the USC season doesn’t change much but Lincoln Riley needs to prove his teams can recover and compete with a Big 10 conference schedule. Miller Moss is still a good QB and the offense is electric which is the exact opposite we can say about Wisconsin’s who is down to their 2nd string QB after Tyler Van Dyke’s ACL tear a few weeks ago. 

Mississippi State (1-3) @ #1 Texas (4-0): TEX -38.5, O/U 62.5 - Saturday 4:15pm ET SECN

Reasons to watch: Holy shit look at that line. That’s how bad Mississippi State is who just got killed by Florida. For reference, the spread of the Colorado State and UTSA games against Texas was lower than this. Horns QB Quinn Ewers is questionable and probably won’t play with Red River and Georgia looming so it’s Arch Manning time yet again. 

#3 Ohio State (4-0) @ Michigan State (3-1): OSU -24, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 4:15pm ET SECN

Reasons to watch: We wouldn’t call this game a test for Ohio State but it is their first game of the year against a non-MAC team or Marshall and it’s on the road. People have intentionally forgotten about them and their star-studded team because of the schedule so we’ll refresh you: RBs Quinshon Judkins & TreVeyon Henderson, WRs Jeremiah Smith & Emeka Egbuka, DLs JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, & Tyleik Williams, and S Caleb Downs. All will be 2nd day draft picks at a minimum.

Stanford (2-1) @ #17 Clemson (2-1): CLEM -21, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Reasons to watch: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” - Ian Fleming, Goldfinger. If Clemson’s offense and QB Cade Klubnik put on a clinic for the third week in a row we might officially reset our expectations after calling for Klubnik’s head after the Georgia game. App State and NC State’s defensive struggles are well documented and Stanford is by no means the ‘85 Bears but OC Garrett Riley might’ve finally shaken Cade hard enough that something clicked for him.

#8 Oregon (3-0) @ UCLA (1-2): ORE -24, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 11:00pm ET FOX

Reasons to watch: Ah, a classic Big 10 conference game. Oregon returns after a bye week and we’ll be watching to see if their early season struggles are behind them. Oregon’s OL is still a mess and dealing with injuries while UCLA looked decent for 3 quarters against LSU after getting drilled by Indiana the week before. Also, it’s a nightcap in the Rose Bowl that’ll end after 2am ET. This is what we pray for in mid-June. 

Trivia Question

Which MLB Hall of Famer was Tennessee’s starting QB before injury thrust a freshman named Peyton Manning into action? Answer at end of the newsletter.

Tate’s Great Picks (14-16)

Army (3-0) @ Temple (1-2): Army -12.5, O/U 46.5 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Pick Army -12.5: Army is an absolute wagon right now and Temple is potentially the worst team in the FBS this year. Army rolls.

Stanford (2-1) @ #17 Clemson (2-1): CLEM -21, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Pick Clemson -21: After their Georgia ass-whooping, Clemson has absolutely dominated their next opponents on both sides of the ball and has started to look like easily the second-best team in the ACC behind Miami - if not first. Stanford is on their second consecutive East Coast road trip and I do not see them being able to hang around with the Tigers. Wish I could get this at -20.5, but even at -21 I like Clemson.

Minnesota (2-2) @ #12 Michigan (3-1): Mich -9, O/U 35.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick Michigan -9: This line is so low because of the extremely low number of total points Vegas thinks are going to be scored here, but I like Michigan to win by 10+ because I think it may only take 10 points for them to do so. Minnesota’s offense is awful, and Michigan seems to have found a little bit of a formula with RB Kalel Mullings and QB Alex Orji in the run game. 

Florida State (1-3) @ SMU (3-1): SMU -6, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Pick Game Total Under 47.5: SMU has found a little more offensive juice after replacing QB Preston Stone with Kevin Jennings, but are still far from world beaters on that side of the ball. FSU remains completely lost and unconfident in their ability to score points, and have largely grinded their offensive pace (meaning they’re running tons of clock) to a halt ever since their first possession of the season against Georgia Tech. I’m expecting this game to look more like FSU’s game against Cal last weekend than I am expecting somebody to flirt with 30 points.

#18 Iowa State (3-0) @ Houston (1-3): ISU -13.5, O/U 43.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET FS1

Pick ISU -13.5: Houston has looked quite awful so far, especially on offense where they’ve scored 7 points in two games, and got shut out 34-0 by Cincinnati last week. That does not bode well against a very good Iowa State defense. I think QB Rocco Becht to put up enough points to cover here.

#21 Oklahoma (3-1) @ Auburn (2-2): OKLA -2.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Pick Oklahoma -2.5: Say what you will about Oklahoma’s offense, but their defense looks like one of the nation’s best, while Hugh Freeze simply cannot keep telling everybody about how his quarterbacks make the worst decisions he’s ever seen. Oklahoma finds something offensively with Hawkins and their defense shuts the Tigers down. It’ll be a great day for America.

#20 Oklahoma State (3-1) @ #23 Kansas State (3-1): KSU -4.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick Kansas State -4.5: As we discussed above, Oklahoma State’s defense has been dreadful so far this season and while we haven’t yet seen Avery Johnson connect with his receivers as consistently as we might have expected, they still want to run through your face first and foremost. I expect them to do that enough at home to pull out this cover.

Washington State (4-0) @ #21 Boise State (2-1): BOIS -7.5, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 10:00pm ET FS1

Pick Washington State +7.5, Game Total Over 64.5: I’m expecting an all out offensive shootout here as I do not think either of these defenses is any good, while both offenses might be borderline elite. I think Wazzu has the moxy to never get down too much and keep themselves in this game enough to cover - or even win.

#22 BYU (4-0) @ Baylor (2-2): BYU -3.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FS1

Pick BYU -3.5: BYU is coming off of one of their biggest wins in years after blowing out Kansas State last weekend, while Baylor is very bad and coming off of an absolutely heartbreaking OT loss to Colorado last week after giving up a hail mary and then fumbling at the one-yard line in overtime. BYU is undoubtedly better at home, yes. But this Baylor team might be on the verge of being very aware that quite literally all of their coaches are about to be fired. Give me BYU.

Nebraska (3-1) @ Purdue (1-2): NEB -10, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET Peacock

Pick Nebraska -10: Purdue is f***ing HORRIBLE.

OnlyRans (13-23)

#2 Georgia (3-0) @ #4 Alabama (3-0): UGA -1.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Pick Alabama +2 & Game Total Under 48.5: Am I picking this to rile up the Georgia fans? Potentially but I have my reasons other than being a troll. Tate said himself below that he has no idea what to expect from this game, and neither do I.  What I do know is Georgia and Bama ranked 120th and 109th in penalty yards/game respectively and I anticipate that’ll push both offenses behind the chains and end drives. I’m rolling with the Tide mainly because they are the underdog and I’ll take the points at home. Tough road environment and Milroe has been the better QB of the two thus far. Now that OnlyRans has taken this bet it’s assured Georgia will win by two touchdowns and the over will hit, so you’re welcome in advance UGA fans. 

Virginia Tech (2-2) @ #7 Miami (4-0): MIA -18.5, O/U 54.5 - Friday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Pick Miami -18.5: This is a lot of points for a Miami team program that’s about as trustworthy as a toddler with an egg. However, I can envision way more scenarios of Miami winning at home by 30+ than Virginia Tech keeping this within even two touchdowns. Either way, we’ll get to laugh at one of these programs so it’s a win-win for me. 

#19 Illinois (4-0) @ #9 Penn State (3-0): PSU -19, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Pick Illinois +19: The line being this big scares me that Vegas believes the offensive transformation of Penn State and Drew Allar is for real. However, This Illinois defense is pesky and the offense is explosive enough to keep this close, and when was the last time we’ve ever trusted Penn State? In 2021 #7 Penn State hosted Illinois as a 24-point favorite and lost 20-18 in the unforgettable 9OT game. There’s a reason I didn’t put this game in the Bar Beatdowns section. 

Fresno State (3-1) @ UNLV (3-0): UNLV -1.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FS1

Pick UNLV -1.5: Before the news of UNLV starting QB Matthew Sluka leaving the program due to an unpaid NIL agreement, this spread was up to -4 to the Rebs, so I understand the line movement. The problem is, backup QB Hajj-Malik Williams can actually throw the ball whereas Sluka was a glorified running back. I like the Rebs and their 35th-ranked defense to shut down Fresno who has to come up with an entirely new gameplan in 72 hours. 

#15 Louisville (3-0) @ #16 Notre Dame (3-1): ND -6.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET Peacock

Pick Louisville +6.5: Last year in Louisville, the Irish and Sam Hartman rolled in as 6-point favorites and got shelled in a 33-20 loss. Both teams have new QBs but are built roughly the same with the exception of Riley Leonard being a better running threat and the Irish somehow having an even worse receiving corps. Last week, Louisville corralled GT QB Haynes King who is equally as good of a runner and racked up 7 TFLs. This Cardinals DL is a nightmare and will have Leonard running for his life. I’d be more comfortable at +7 but I still like the Cards. 

Arkansas (3-1) v #24 Texas A&M (3-1): TAMU -4, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN in Arlington, TX

Pick TAMU -4: I reserve the right to void this pick if TAMU starts QB Conner Weigman in place of Marcel Reed. Weigman is dealing with a shoulder issue and is going to be a game-time decision for the rest of the season. Reed is the better QB even with a healthy Weigman and has led TAMU to 3 straight wins since Weigman trotted out an anemic offense against Notre Dame. Also, TAMU has won 11 of the last 12 matchups as JerryWorld has been a slaughterhouse for the Hogs. 

Middle Tennessee (1-3) @ Memphis (3-1): MEM -26, O/U 61.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ESPNU

Pick Game Total Under 61.5: This is purely a weather-aided pick thanks to Hurricane Helene who’s tracking to sit over the state of Tennessee and dump rain all day Saturday. Even without the weather, I don’t see Memphis scoring enough a week before a big matchup with USF. If you’re an opportunistic bettor I’d keep your eye on other games in this general area of the country given Helene’s impact. 

Upset Call of the Week

The rules for this section are simple. We’re both going to pick a double-digit underdog to pull off the upset outright. This does not count for or against our betting totals above (not that it’d matter for Rand) but it’s simply for bragging rights.

Rand: Houston over #18 Iowa State (-13.5)

Tate: #19 Illinois over #9 Penn State (-18)

Wake Forest

Louisiana (2-1) @ Wake Forest (1-2): WFU -3, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CW

The Ragin Cajun roll into Winston-Salem for the first-ever matchup between the schools. Louisiana has rebranded itself and dropped the -Lafayette term which is not to be confused with Louisiana-Monroe who beat Wake in Clawson’s first-ever game back in 2013 and again in 2014. As the betting lines and Clawson’s Tuesday press conference will tell you, this is not a pushover G5 matchup. Louisiana’s head coach Michael Desormeaux is a former player and was the OC under Billy Napier before he took the Florida job. Similar to Wake, the strength of Louisiana is their offense while their defense is, uhhhh, a work in progress. The Cajun got charity wins over FCS Grambling and the newest FBS entrant Kennesaw State before falling to Tulane 41-33 last weekend. 

I’m going to over-analyze the Tulane game because it’s the only solid data point worth mentioning for the Sun Belt West division favorites. The Cajun are led by 7th-year senior Ben Wooldridge who went 19/34 for 238 yards with 2 TDs, 2 picks, and 3 sacks against the Green Wave. While the final score is scary as a Deacs fan, Tulane punted once, had efficient, long drives, and ran the ball down Louisiana’s throat. The only reason Louisiana was able to stay in this game was thanks to Tulane’s defense committing six penalties that resulted in automatic first downs. Louisiana is pretty balanced rushing vs. passing the ball and while they don’t have a standout at either position, they make up for it with depth and experience. This is the best team Desormeaux has had during his three-year tenure in Lafayette so the Deacs need to be careful here.

As an ACC team, you should never lose to Sun Belt teams (lol, UNC) but this is one the Deacs cannot lose. They’ve already given one away to Virginia and the math to get to a bowl becomes nearly impossible unless they plan on beating Clemson or Miami. The two best players on the team - DE Jasheen Davis & WR Donavon Greene - are probable and questionable to play respectively but Clawson will have a short leash on them regardless. In order for Wake to win they’ll need to establish the running game early and often with Demond Claiborne with ancillary help from Tate Carney. The defensive secondary is too much of a liability right now to give Louisiana multiple chances to exploit it because eventually, the dam will break. In the theoretical absence of Greene, I’m looking for WRs Deuce Alexander and Horatio Fields to step up as QB Hank Bachmeier continues settling into the offense. Speaking of Bachmeier, it’s flown under the radar that he’s 10th in the nation with 300 passing yards/game and hasn’t thrown a pick yet. Yes, it’s only been three games and the Deacs are 1-2 but coupled with a 61% completion rate, I’d label that as competency which is all I’ve been asking for heading into the season. I won’t be in attendance - more on that below - but let’s have a stress-free Saturday afternoon, shall we? Deacs by a million. 

Where In The World Are We?

Tate: Outside of the very fake, very Mickey-Mouse COVID game in 2020 where hardly anybody was allowed to attend, the Dawgs haven’t been to Tuscaloosa since 2007. The 2007 game will go down in UGA history as Matthew Stafford and Mark Richt took down Nick Saban in overtime, but I watched that game while sitting on my dad’s couch in Atlanta, and have therefore never attended a game at Bryant-Denny Stadium.  Somehow, neither has my dad. That will change on Saturday as we’re road-tripping this bad boy together and staying in Birmingham on the way home. I could not be more excited despite the fact that, as I discussed above, I really have no idea what to expect from this game and I think a relative blowout could come from either side. Regardless, it’s not often we get a regular season game like this in a new environment for me, so I plan on taking it all in. There will be countless celebrities there including a very unique former president, so I will be doing what I can to spread the word of 4th & Forever. See you on the other side, Go Dawgs.

Rand: In our travel schedule edition this offseason I wrote the following: “The Deacs are in Winston and while I’ll be back in North Cackalacky, I will not be in attendance. Instead, I’ll be in Wilmington for my friend's bachelor party where I can only assume the entire weekend will revolve around where we’re watching the Wake-Louisiana Ragin Cajun game…right guys???”

That question has gone unanswered thus far but I guess I’ll find out in due time.  

Trivia answer: Colorado Rockies 1B Todd Helton

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.