Week 5 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Death, taxes, Taylor Swift, Deion Sanders, and upsets in college football when there is a presumed lighter slate along with road favorites. We saw this same scenario in Week 3 when the slate was devoid of top-tier battles until Tennessee lost to Florida, Alabama struggled with USF, and Florida State barely got by Boston College. Week 5 looks better than Week 3 on paper with four ranked matchups, but we expect a lot of chaos with the multiple top teams going into tough road environments. It’s ‘Prove It’ weekend so without further ado, let’s get to it!

7 Week 5 Games to Watch

#10 Utah (4-0) @ #19 Oregon State (3-1): Oregon State -3.5, O/U 44.5 - Friday 9:00pm ET FS1

We have preached about the PAC-12’s remarkably fun and electric final season here on 4th & Forever for weeks now, and while this one may not be as packed with high-flying offense as other PAC-12 matchups are sure to be, this should still be a really good football game. Oregon State is coming off a really tough but well-fought loss to Washington State last week, while Utah continues to be Utah, not scoring much but grinding teams down defensively. These are two phenomenally coached teams that play fast and physical. This will be a fun one even if a ton of points don’t end up on the board.

#22 Florida (3-1) @ Kentucky (4-0): Kentucky -1.5, O/U 44 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

From 1987-2017, Florida won 31 consecutive games against Kentucky until the Wildcats knocked them off in 2018. Kentucky has now won 3 out of the last 5 matchups in this series, is a favorite on Saturday, and is playing at home in Lexington. But this one is sure to be a slugfest, with both offenses looking somewhere between big ass and absolutely mid. Both defenses, on the other hand, haven’t looked too shabby thus far in 2023. It may not be the most electric matchup of the weekend, but this one will go a long way in determining who competes with Georgia and Tennessee for first and second place in the SEC East. Fun players to watch in this matchup include Kentucky wide receiver Barrion Brown, and Florida wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who made this catch last week against Charlotte.

#8 USC (4-0) @ Colorado (3-1): USC -21.5, O/U 73.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Coming off a bye week, USC struggled to put away Arizona State but still managed to put up 42 points in their road victory. QB Caleb Williams is putting together another Heisman campaign and trying to become the first back-to-back winner since Ohio State running back Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. In order to do that, he will need Michael Penix, Jr. to stop torching defenses and beat him head-to-head when they face off in LA on November 4th. Defense is, yet again, going to make or break this USC team. Head coach Lincoln Riley made the…wait for it…indefensible decision to bring back defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who is allergic to coaching proper tackling fundamentals. The defense is certainly improved from last year but hasn’t been formally tested yet. This game and Colorado’s offense should serve as a good barometer of how seriously we should take USC’s playoff chances as they still have to play Utah, Notre Dame, Washington, and UCLA in the regular season.

10 million people tuned in to watch Colorado finally come back to Earth after getting absolutely trounced 42-6 by Oregon last weekend. More people watched the Colorado-Oregon game than the last-second win by Ohio State against Notre Dame last weekend. We all have been force-fed Deion Sanders for over a month now, but this content machine will keep rolling at least for another week. WR/DB Travis Hunter will be out for this matchup, but Shedeur Sanders should have the opportunity to bounce back against a porous USC defense. Folsom Field might run out of fireworks by halftime if USC decides tackling is overrated yet again.

#24 Kansas (4-0) @ #3 Texas (4-0): Texas -16.5, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Kansas and electric QB Jalon Daniels head to Austin to face QB Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns. We’re only 2 years removed from 2-8 Kansas upsetting Texas 57-56 in Austin when the Jayhawks walk-on fullback snagged the walk-off two-point conversion attempt. While we expect Texas to win this game, Texas has looked good, not great since their win in Tuscaloosa. With the Sooners looming in the Red River Shootout next weekend, we hope they aren’t looking ahead because this Kansas offense has the potential to make things very uncomfortable for the Horns.

#13 LSU (3-1) @ #20 Ole Miss (3-1): LSU -2.5, O/U 67 - Saturday 6:00pm ET ESPN

BANGER ALERT. The Ole Miss-LSU rivalry has given us some really fun football games in recent decades, and we see no reason why this one will be any different. Ole Miss is trying to bounce back from a very lackluster performance last week against Alabama, while LSU is still trying to regain its national respect after their Week 1 blowout loss to FSU.

South Carolina (2-2) @ #21 Tennessee (3-1): Tenn -12.5, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET SECN

This matchup has low-key turned into one of the better budding rivalries in the SEC in recent years, and this particular one looks like it’s going to be really fun. Tennessee will be donning their black uniforms and will be looking to avenge last year’s shocking 63-38 loss to the Gamecocks - a result that put these two fanbases at serious odds over the past year. South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler continues to look like easily the best quarterback in the SEC, and he’ll be targeting wide receiver and breakout superstar Xavier Leggette all game. Expect tons of shots downfield, exciting touchdowns, and possibly an all-out brawl. We highly recommend you tune into this one.

#11 Notre Dame (4-1) @ #17 Duke (4-0): ND -5.5, O/U 52 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Duke finally gets off the illustrious list of Power 5 schools that have never hosted College GameDay. Sorry to Rutgers, Syracuse, Illinois, Cal, Maryland, and Virginia. Sidenote: Rand still considers Wake to never have hosted College GameDay since the only time they came was in 2020 against Clemson where they plopped on the 50-yard line, and no one was in attendance for the show or the game because of Covid. Additionally, viewers were subjected to a 3-hour prop piece on how good Trevor Lawrence and Clemson were, but I digress.

Back to the game at hand, Duke (if you haven’t heard) beat Clemson in Week 1 and has since whipped Lafayette, Northwestern, and UConn. Dual-threat QB Riley Leonard leads one of the best rushing attacks in the country and might need an umbrella with how much NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. is drooling over him. Head coach Mike Elko is one of the best defensive minds in the game and is going to mix and match his personnel to try and make up for the talent deficit against Notre Dame’s offense.

Notre Dame has to win this game - and every other game on its schedule which includes Clemson and USC - to have a shot at the playoff. Notre Dame’s rushing attack was effective against Ohio State’s stout defense while QB Sam Hartman dinked and dumped his way to a modest 175 yards but no turnovers. We implore the Irish to try and throw it down the field outside the numbers as they should be able to out-athlete Duke on the perimeter. Durham will be rocking in what is likely the biggest game in Wallace Wade Stadium (opened in 1929) history unless you count the 1942 Rose Bowl.

8 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

Louisville (4-0) @ N.C. State (3-1): Louisville -3, O/U 55.5 - Friday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Undefeated Louisville heads to Carter-Finley Stadium for a tough Friday night matchup against the Pack. Louisville has put up some points against mediocre competition under new head coach Jeff Brohm who returned to his alma mater from Purdue. WR Jamari Thrash is a touchdown threat every time he touches the ball and RB Jawhar Jordan (6 TDs) has gone over 100 rushing yards in every game except one where he went for 96 yards. But…Louisville’s combined opponent record is 6-9 and almost lost to Georgia Tech & Indiana. N.C. State has a very tough defense while their offense is trying to come along behind QB Brennan Armstrong. This should be a great Friday night tilt.

Texas A&M (3-1) vs Arkansas (2-2): TAMU -6.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET SECN

This game is played at Jerry World each year which always makes it an interesting neutral site matchup Texas A&M lost starting quarterback Connor Weigman for the year to a broken foot, but backup Max Johnson is fully capable of handling the load for A&M. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson and RB Rocket Sanders are one of the most exciting duos in all of college football, and this game will go a longgggg way in determining whether Jimbo Fisher or Sam Pittman’s seat gets hotter. Oil prices are $94/barrel and we assume hog farming is still a fruitful industry given the number of people moving to Raleigh, NC.

Clemson (2-2) @ Syracuse (4-0): Clemson -7, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

After losing to Florida State in a physical & emotional game last week, Clemson now heads to Syracuse where the last two meetings have been Clemson wins but been decided by less than a touchdown. Syracuse has a balanced & explosive offense behind 19th-year QB Garrett Shrader who runs the ball like he’s trying to get CTE. But if you thought Louisville’s schedule to date was cake, Syracuse’s combined opponent record is 4-12. Clemson is always too talented to lose to Syracuse but for whatever reason coach Dino Babers seems to always catch Dabo & company off guard. Don’t let FSU beat you twice Clemson…

Texas Tech (1-3) @ Houston (2-2): Texas Tech -8.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FS2

The channel listing is not a typo, this game is so unappealing it’s being relegated to the channel FOX usually uses for professional wakeboarding and BMX motocross competitions. What’s not unappealing is the implications of whatever coach loses this game. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen seems to have the backing of billionaire booster and Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta, but losing to spiraling in-state and new conference rival Texas Tech whom you regularly turn your nose up to would not bode well for the mullet man. Texas Tech and head coach Joey McGuire just lost their starting QB to injury for the millionth year in a row and really, really need this one to right the ship if they have any hope of making a bowl after an offseason of hype where they were dark horse Big-12 champion picks.

#2 Michigan (4-0) @ Nebraska (2-2): Michigan -17.5, O/U 39.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

This is Michigan’s first trip outside the friendly confines of the Big House, and while Nebraska’s offense would be the worst in the Big 10 if Iowa didn’t exist, Lincoln is never an easy place to play. We think Michigan will romp, but on their last trip here two years ago, they had to come back to win off a late field goal 32-29 en route to their first playoff appearance. Nebraska will not score many points, if any, but no matter the score, this game will show Nebraska fans how far they have to climb under first-year coach Matt Rhule…or how far they’ve fallen since the 1990s.

Michigan State (2-2) @ Iowa (3-1): Iowa -12.5, O/U 36.5- Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

You will be involuntarily admitted to a mental institute if you even think about watching this game. Michigan State is focused on finding their next head coach for 2024 after firing Mel Tucker even before the upcoming Title IX hearing while Iowa is coming off a 0-point, 76-yard offensive performance against Penn State. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz whose son oversees this atrocity of an offense, said they should involve the wide receivers more in the future. We think that’s a fantastic idea considering Iowa receivers have a combined 14 catches on the season. Hawkeye QB Cade McNamara addressed the lack of production with an encouraging statement saying he’s just the QB and doesn’t call the plays, just runs them.

West Virginia (3-1) @ TCU (3-1): TCU -12.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ESPN2

After losing to Colorado in Week 1, which kicked the Buffs hype train into Mach speed, TCU has quietly beaten in-state rivals SMU & Houston en route to a 3-1 record. The Horned Frogs offense is electric yet again and their defense seems to have cleaned up their act, especially in the front seven. West Virginia has a pesky, tough defense but a grotesque offense that hasn’t surpassed 20 points against FBS opponents. Mountaineers head coach Neal Brown seems to have wiggled his way off the hot seat, but a blowout loss here might put him right back on it.

#12 Alabama (3-1) @ Mississippi State (2-2): Bama -14.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 9:00pm ET ESPN

Alabama quite literally never loses this game (they’ve won 15 straight), and while we don’t expect them to start now, this may be one of the closer games the two teams have played since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa. This will be yet another test for Alabama’s offense to prove that they step up to the plate and actually score points consistently, which is typically what you want your offense to do (unless you are Iowa). Mississippi State’s weakness on defense is pass coverage, which is exactly what you’d want your weakness to be against Jalen Milroe and the 2023 Crimson Tide offense. The cowbells will be ringin’, the cows will be moo-in’, the cow-tippers in the stands will be drunk and screamin’. Could be a fun one for your late night.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (4-0): It is officially Auburn hate week, and since we have a few new Auburn-fan subscribers here at 4th & Forever, I’ll try to keep the trash talk as nice as I can. Auburn University, famous for harboring Al Qaeda fugitives and sacrificing human children, has lost 15 of their last 18 football games against UGA. The Tigers come into this game with a 3-1 record, a very solid defense, and one of the worst offenses I have ever laid my eyes on. Georgia’s offense will definitely need to come out ready to play against this team, but to be honest, two touchdowns and a field goal might be able to cover this -14.5 spread on its own. I’d like to see the Dawgs come out and establish themselves on the ground early in this one because I do not just want to beat Auburn, I want to demoralize them. I want to run the ball down their throat until they quit.

In the passing game, the Dawgs continue to take more and more shots downfield as the season goes on, and I am getting a feeling that I haven’t had all year, that Carson Beck and these receivers are about to explode and announce themselves on the national stage in a big way. Ladd McConkey is trending to return from his back injury after missing the first four games which will do wonders for this offense. And frankly, I’m expecting this Georgia offense to have the ball a lot, because as I mentioned above…

This Auburn offense is truly dreadful. Payton Thorne has started all 4 games for the Tigers so far but looked so putrid against Texas A&M last week that he got benched for Robbie Ashford who literally cannot throw the football. Seriously, Thorne was remarkably horrible last Saturday. Auburn has a few really good running backs in Jarquez Hunter, Damari Alston, and Brian Battie, but this is solidly a bottom-half SEC offensive line and there is not a single receiver on this Auburn roster who puts fear in anyone’s hearts.

This is The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, and Georgia has come into Jordan-Hare Stadium as the #1 team in the country and lost before. But I would be much more surprised at an Auburn upset than I would be at a Georgia shutout of the Tigers, and I think we may just get one on Saturday. Huge opportunity for the Dawgs’ defense to prove to not just the world, but to themselves, that this is the best defense in the country once again. Dawgs beat Auburn, a school that has never solidly proven that it didn’t assassinate John F. Kennedy, by a million.

Wake Forest (3-1): Good news: the Deacs are off the weekend which means they cannot influence my emotional well-being and have the opportunity to try and fix the offensive line woes. Bad news: on the other side of the bye week, Clemson awaits where the Deacs haven’t won since 1998.

Tate’s Great Picks (8-15)

#7 Washington (4-0) @ Arizona (3-1): Wash -18, O/U 67.5 - Saturday 10:00pm ET Pac-12 Network

Pick - Washington -18: Folks, it’s time to start blindly betting Washington to cover. This offense is legitimately unstoppable right now, and Arizona does not have the horses to compete. All over Washington here once again.

Michigan State (2-2) @ Iowa (3-1): Iowa -12.5, O/U 36.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Game Total Under 36.5: Rand has a good breakdown on this in OnlyRans below that I completely agree with, and it would be pure sadism for me to make you read any more about this game. Expect punts. Lots and lots of punts.

#8 USC (4-0) @ Colorado (3-1): USC -21.5, O/U 73.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick - USC -21.5: I’m sorry in advance to Deion and Colorado for this disrespectful bulljunk I’m writing here, but I think USC is about to put on a show in this one. The Trojans may give up some points, but I think their talented defensive line will start harassing Shedeur as the game goes on. And offensively for USC, I mean my goodness, this might be a bloodbath against this Colorado defense.

Wyoming (3-1) @ New Mexico (2-2): Wyoming -14, O/U 42 - Saturday 4:00pm ET CBSSN

Pick - Game Total Under 42: These are two bad offenses combined with one really good defense (Wyoming’s). I simply cannot see this game getting over 38 points unless some turnover craziness happens, but that’s always the risk with betting unders. Side note here - if this line drops to -13.5 or lower for Wyoming by Saturday, I’ll be betting that too.

#1 Georgia (4-0) @ Auburn (3-1): UGA -14.5, O/U 47 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick - UGA -14.5: The Dawgs have not yet covered a spread this year and this is a rivalry game on the road. But before you call me a homer for putting this here, please, I beg of you, go watch Auburn’s offense in their games against Cal and Texas A&M games. As I said above, 2 touchdowns and a field goal may get this covered for the Dawgs. The weather looks to be good to go for Saturday, and I think the Dawgs open it up on offense and cover with ease.

This week’s Underdog ML Sprinkle Parlay: BYU ML, Ole Miss ML, Illinois ML.

OnlyRans (14-14)

Louisville (4-0) @ N.C. State (3-1): Louisville -3.5, O/U 55.5 - Friday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - N.C. State +3.5: Out of principle, I will never pick the Pack if they’re a favorite given their notorious history for choking in the biggest moments. Evidence can be found here, here, and the literal website that chronicles N.C. State’s ‘tough luck.’ However, with this game being in Raleigh and my working theory that Louisville is a fraudulent 4-0 after sneaking by Georgia Tech & Indiana while smoking Murray State & Boston College, give me the puppies.

#11 Notre Dame (4-1) @ #17 Duke (4-0): ND -5.5, O/U 52 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Pick - Notre Dame -5.5: I don’t think Duke has the horses to keep up with Notre Dame in the trenches. Clemson gashed Duke for 213 yards and on the season, Duke is giving up 133.0 yards/game (10th in the ACC) while Notre Dame is averaging 198.8 on the ground per game. I expect Notre Dame to run the ball down Duke’s throat, shorten the game, and play keep away from QB Riley Leonard. I also never like betting on the upstart, historically bad team that is hosting a blueblood at home in a massive matchup because it doesn’t usually end well. Apologies to the Duke side of my family, I’ll see you at Christmas.

#7 Washington (4-0) @ Arizona (3-1): Wash -18, O/U 67.5 - Saturday 10:00pm ET Pac-12 Network

Pick - Washington -18: Washington hasn’t failed me in covering the past two weeks and I don’t think this offensive juggernaut is slowing down in Tucson. Additionally, Washington is 4-0 against the spread this year. This is less about Arizona (who is bad) and more about how good Washington’s offense is. Heisman contender QB Michael Penix, Jr. has barely played in the 4th quarter this year and an argument could be made he shouldn’t have played in the 3rd quarter given their halftime scores. I expect the Huskies to keep rolling here.

Michigan State (2-2) @ Iowa (3-1): Iowa -12.5, O/U 36.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Game Total Under 36.5: Michigan State has been held to 18 points in their last two games combined while Iowa went for 0 points and less than 100 total yards against Penn State last week. Is past performance a perfect predictor of the future? No, but I am a sick, twisted individual who loves watching unwatchable football. Inject a 10-3 game into my veins.

#8 USC (4-0) @ Colorado (3-1): USC -21.5, O/U 73.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Game Total Over 73.5: Vegas is begging you to take the under here and for personal reasons, I am absolutely not going to (see below section). USC has the nation’s #1 scoring offense and that certainly won’t slow down against this Colorado defense. You all know the story on Colorado, so let’s see a 2021 Wake Forest - Army shootout, please. I demand it.

#1 Georgia (4-0) @ Auburn (3-1): UGA -14.5, O/U 47 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick - UGA -14.5: Yet again, Vegas definitely knows something I don’t as this line makes no sense and has been bet down after opening at UGA -18.5 Georgia didn’t put up points against South Carolina, but I think that was mainly a function of coach Kirby Smart playing conservatively. Auburn’s offense is absolutely anemic and legitimately might not score. There definitely won’t be a backdoor cover from Auburn here…right!?

For my moneyline upset of the week let’s go with Utah ML. We’ve heard since Week 1 that QB Cam Rising will be back but he’s yet to show face and Utah is 4-0.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: Every year since 7th grade, my dad and I have picked one college football trip to take together. It doesn’t have to be a massive game like Alabama - LSU but our stringent guidelines are the following: cool stadium & not the same weekend as a big Wake game. We’ve seen Tennessee, USC, Notre Dame, Army-Navy, and Florida State together to name a few but this year we picked our game back in the spring and we chose USC @ Colorado. Are we geniuses? Did I just ask a rhetorical question?

TS: I have not missed a UGA vs. Auburn game in nearly 10 years, and this Saturday was supposed to be no different until my 1-year-old puppy, my sweet Lottie, came down with pneumonia this week. I’ll be nursing my baby back to good health while I teach her about all the atrocities Auburn University has committed since its establishment in 1856.

Hope you have a fantastic weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through our good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.