ShamWow was a Scam: Week 4 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Remember the infomercial ShamWow? Rhetorical question, of course you do. We’re not here to tell you that guy got arrested after a prostitute bit his tongue (true) or for a litany of other reasons he is a scumbag (also true) because you can do that during work. Instead, we think some boosters and coaches across college football feel scammed like many American consumers were after purchasing ShamWow. They bought into the promises of this exciting new product like a transfer portal QB but in the end, were left with a damp rag and wishing they hadn’t gotten rid of their paper towels. So, whether you’re Mike Norvell with DJU, Dave Doeren with Grayson McCall, or Baylor’s Dave Aranda and Dequan Finn, just know you’re not the only one who bought into a false promise. Hand up, we did too. The only difference is we aren’t paid millions of dollars to make these decisions, we just get to sit back and laugh at their literal and figurative expense. Pretty cool how that works out…at least for us.

The Four Ranked vs. Ranked Week 4 Games

#24 Illinois (3-0) @ #22 Nebraska (3-0): NEB -7.5, O/U 42.5 - Friday 8:00pm ET FOX

It’s unclear what the expectations are or should be for this Nebraska program in this era of college football but if it includes not throwing up on yourself and losing in humiliating fashion then induct Matt Rhule to the Ring of Honor right now. Remember, we’re three games into the season so there is plenty of time for that, but Nebraska has convincingly beaten the teams they’re supposed to and now host a conference game in which they are ranked. That’s a significant step for a program that had to fire their hometown hero Scott Frost after a loss to Georgia Southern in 2022. Nebraska’s game against Colorado this year was a spectacle in which they honored the 1994 national champions and showed the level of unwavering commitment they have from their fanbase. I (Rand) have been to Nebraska and can confirm the stereotype that there is nothing to do out there unless it’s taking Jell-O shots during the College World Series so I don’t blame them on going all-in for a program that hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2016. Nebraska isn’t ‘back’ and will never be back if you irrationally believe they can still win a national championship. Spoiler alert: steroids are (still)  illegal and academic standards exist because of this very program. However, fielding a respectable team is all we can ask of Rhule and I’d say he’s accomplished that thus far. I might be eating my words on Monday but I needed to put it on the record that I’ve said something nice about Nebraska after being deprived of such an opportunity for roughly my entire lifetime.

Everyone’s gushing over the potential and the promise of Nebraska freshman phenom Dylan Raiola, and rightfully so. He is good and he’s going to be great, but don’t sleep on the job Illini QB Luke Altmeyer has done. Through 3 games his stats are almost identical to Raiola’s but has 6 TDs and no interceptions to Raiola’s 5 TDs and 1 pick. The redshirt junior had a rocky season last year but the 2023 rendition of the Fighting Illini was all-around bad. This year’s team might be…good? Like Nebraska, they’re a defense-led team but have weapons on the outside, specifically WR Zakhari Franklin who’s the FBS active leader in career receiving yards. Franklin was on the Frank Harris/UTSA teams and is spelled by Pat Bryant who’s leading the Illini in receiving and has hauled in 4 TDs already. This is a dangerous tandem in an offense that’s generally known for, well, not having one. Raiola soaks up all the oxygen around Nebraska but don’t forget about transfer WRs Jahmal Banks (Wake Forest) and Isaiah Neyor (Texas) who have flashed their game-breaking potential already. This should be an entertaining Friday night duel that quite frankly we probably wouldn’t watch otherwise. 

#11 USC (2-0) @ #18 Michigan (2-1): USC -5.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

On May 27, 2024, Vegas sportsbooks released their initial lines for this game and Michigan opened as 10.5-point favorites. Since then Michigan has gotten smoked by Texas at home, simultaneously fielded an incompetent offense, and is now in the midst of a QB change from Davis Warren to the offseason presumed starter Alex Orji. In three years at Michigan, albeit as a backup to JJ McCarthy, his career stat line is 4 of 7 passing for 20 yards and 2 TDs. So what’s the deal with this guy? Can he legitimately not throw or Michigan hasn’t needed him to? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle. Orji was a 3-star QB commit out of Texas and threw for over 2,000 yards and 28 TDs but also ran for another 1,100 yards and 23 rushing TDs. Michigan and head coach Sherrone Moore did not go after a transfer portal QB this offseason with the expectation Orji could become a mid-level starter with an offseason of work. We still don’t have proof of concept Orji can’t but given he started the offseason behind Davis Warren - who was putrid - tells us the Michigan staff knows what’s coming with this guy and it’s not pretty. Expect lots of running with Orji and the stable of running backs, especially Kalel Mullings who should usurp Donovan Edwards on the depth chart if he hasn’t already. 

If you haven’t thought about USC since the Week 1 27-20 victory over LSU in Vegas, you’re not alone. In Week 2 they beat Utah State 48-0 and they come into this game off a bye. QB Miller Moss is still an efficient gunslinger, RB Woody Marks is a bowling ball coming out of the backfield, and WR/KR Zachariah Branch is a home run threat every time he touches the ball. Alright, enough with the superlatives, what’s going on with this defense? D’Anton Lynn came over from UCLA to be the new DC under Lincoln Riley and the early ROI is positive. Yes, it’s only been 2 games but last year they had the 121st ranked scoring defense in the nation giving up 34 ppg. Last year opponents converted a staggering 44% of third downs which was 109th in the country. This year they’re sitting at 29%. 

This game will give us a lot of clarity on a bunch of assumptions but not much hard data to back it up. It’ll be even more interesting to see how this game is won. We think Michigan still has a great defense but they’ve given up yards, points, and even explosive plays to Fresno State and Arkansas State. We think Miller Moss is an unexpected revelation for USC but he’s only started 3 games and none of them against a top 50 defense in CFB. The only known is Michigan’s offense looks worse than Detroit’s downtown circa 2007 and they can only do what everyone else did: run.  

#12 Utah (3-0) @ #14 Oklahoma State (3-0): UTAH -2, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FOX

Two top-15 Big 12 teams will face off Saturday afternoon in Stillwater where the winner will take early control of the conference title race. Both quarterbacks in this contest are borderline senior citizens, though there is still some question about whether Utes QB Cam Rising will actually return from injury after missing last week’s contest against Utah State. Utah HC Kyle Whittingham is notoriously a dirty liar when it comes to commenting on his players’ injury statuses, but receiver Dorian Singer accidentally let it slip to the media early this week that Rising will be back. 

A healthy, playing Rising is the key to the game for Utah because they have looked dreadful without him while looking pretty damn solid while he’s been in there. This Oklahoma State defense has been far from a brick wall this year, so we certainly think Utah can keep up with the points the Pokes like to score with Rising playing.

For the Okie Pokes, 7th-year senior (much like Rising) QB Alan Bowman has looked as good as he ever has so far this season, having already thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. Surprisingly, though, RB Ollie Gordon - a preseason Heisman contender - has been completely swallowed up all season so far, running for only 3.5 yards per carry in his first three games. That’s not exactly where you want to be as a running game with Utah’s always-salty defensive front coming to town. Both of these teams have been incredibly hard to figure out so far this season, but with both being playoff hopefuls, Saturday should go a long way in telling us if that’s a realistic goal for these squads or not.

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE: We wrote the above preview on Wednesday (including already calling Wittingham a dirty liar) as the line sat at Utah -2, but this morning the line swung by 4.5 points in favor of Oklahoma State in a clear indication that Rising is unlikely to play. Unreal stuff from Whittingham who is not even trying to be truthful about injuries at this point. If Rising is indeed out, we’re expecting a Pokes blowout.

#6 Tennessee (3-0) @ #15 Oklahoma (3-0): TENN -7, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

There’s not a more anticipated matchup this weekend than the Heupel Bowl taking place in Norman. In 2000, Tennessee head coach Josh Huepel led Oklahoma, as the quarterback, to a national title, establishing himself as OU royalty. Years later he became the Sooners’ offensive coordinator where he ran some tremendous OU offenses before the Sooners began faltering. In 2014, Bob Stoops fired Heupel in what he later called “the worst day” in his 18 years as Oklahoma’s head coach. A decade later, Oklahoma is now ready to play their first-ever conference game as an SEC member against the Heupel-led Tennessee Volunteers.

We’ll let ABC harp on the rest of this story during the broadcast on Saturday night, but there’s no doubt that this one will be personal on all sides - so let’s talk ball. Current OU coach Brent Venables is one of the best defensive minds in the game when it comes to confusing quarterbacks and bringing pressure from bizarre, unexpected places. But as we often talk about, Tennessee’s pace on offense is the great equalizer for unique defenses. Tennessee’s insistence on snapping the ball as soon as the next play ends means Venables is going to have to keep his guys in their base looks more often than not, and as we saw against NC State (and countless times since Heupel got to Tennessee), that is problematic. Heupel makes defenses play on their heels, not their toes. Oklahoma’s defense has looked very good so far, but they are limited in the types of personnel packages they can roll out there against Tennessee. And when you’re facing a QB like Nico and receivers like Tennessee has, watch out. This is why we think Tennessee is so dangerous this year.

On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma still has a lot to figure out. The offensive line has been a pretty brutal operation thus far, and Tennessee’s very multiple defensive front is not who you want to be facing when you’re struggling to protect. Jackson Arnold has a ton of talent as we’re one to point out here at 4th & Forever, but his receivers are banged up and he’s looked terrified in the pocket when he doesn’t know where to go with the ball this season.

We’re not counting the Sooners out here by any means - it wouldn’t shock us if they showed up at home and pulled this one out. But Oklahoma is a touchdown underdog at home for the first time in thirty years, and there’s a reason for that - Tennessee is really, really good. It’ll take a lot to beat this team.

Six More Games to Watch if You’re a Sicko Like Us

Textile Bowl: N.C. State (2-1) @ #21 Clemson (2-1): CLEM -20, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

This monstrous line in favor of Clemson is an indictment on the fall from the preseason hype State received since the season kicked off…sound familiar? Well, it should if you’ve paid attention to NC State football for a millisecond in the past 20 years but noooo we were assured this one will be different! Let’s rewind back to August when State was picked to finish #4 in the ACC but was on every major publication’s ‘Dark Horse Teams for the Playoff’ article because the smoke coming out of Raleigh was they had all the pieces. “We have the best WR in the ACC in KC Concepcion.” I concede KC is one of the best WRs in the conference although Miami’s Xavier Restrepo would like a word. “Transfer WRs Wesley Grimes from Wake and Noah Rogers from Ohio State just need their opportunity.” On the year combined, they have 13 receptions for 153 yards and 0 TDs. “We stole RB Jordan Waters from Duke who was one of the best in the conference last year.” He’s been fine this year but is averaging an entire yard/carry below his average and last year he was barely the second RB on the All-ACC third team which would make him 6th best in the conference. Most of all, we had to hear all offseason long about Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall and how he was the missing piece for this Pack team that’s been yearning for their breakthrough since the Bush administration. Well he left last week’s Louisiana Tech game with an undisclosed injury and it’s unclear when he will come back but the expectation is it won’t be for this game if not the entire season. Before the injury, McCall was reliant on short slants, screens, and anything that didn’t require him to throw it more than 6 yards down the field. No, really, he was averaging 6.8 yards/attempt which is half of his peak at Coastal Carolina. Maybe he came into the year injured but there was no threat of a downfield pass that defenses had to be concerned about. State turns to freshman CJ Bailey who Pack fans are all of a sudden saying is the next coming of Jesus Christ. What is it with certain North Carolina football teams discarding their transfer QB so quickly after an injury and hyping up the new guy like he’s been the choice all along? I don’t remember hearing a word about ahem Conner Harrell and certainly not a peep about CJ Bailey for the past 9 months. 

Bailey may or may not work long-term for the Pack, but I think they’re another data point (see: Florida State and Colorado) that overhauling your team through the transfer portal isn’t a viable solution. The season is early and the ACC is gettable this year but being tied with Western Carolina in the 4th quarter and having to come back by double digits to Louisiana Tech isn’t inspiring confidence. Getting blown off the field like an FCS team against Tennessee was expected but that’s a far cry from a potential playoff team. Now the Pack must head to Death Valley where they haven’t won since 2002 with an offense that currently has more questions than answers. 

Georgia Tech (3-1) @ #19 Louisville (2-0): LOU -10.5, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

This is a sneaky good game that could carry a lot of weight for the winner in the ACC hierarchy which doesn’t have a clear-cut second-best team behind Miami. Thanks to Georgia Tech going to Dublin in Week 0, they’ve already played 4 games while Louisville has only played 2 and coming off their bye. Louisville has a huge trip in South Bend next week but a statement here might be their ‘don’t forget about us’ game. Louisville beat the brakes off Austin Peay and Jacksonville State to open the year which doesn’t even win you a free cheesy bread from Papa Johns. Georgia Tech got back on track from their close loss to Syracuse with a stomping of VMI which is more impressive than you think it is. Rand knows firsthand how tough Keydets are. Have your eyes out for Cards WR Ja’Corey Brooks who was Bama’s leading receiver in 2022 but fell out of favor last year and transferred to Louisville. As is always the case with Georgia Tech, look for QB Haynes King’s rushing ability and special teams where they can flip a game on a dime.  

Rutgers (2-0) @ Virginia Tech (2-1): VT -3.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ACCN

Another sneaky game but this time between an ACC and Big 10 team who we don’t know anything about. Rutgers is coming off a bye and has beaten Howard and Akron to date so we know as much about them as we do the true background to George Santos. Virginia Tech seemingly righted the ship after the inexcusable Vanderbilt loss in Week 1 by beating Old Dominion and Marshall handily. The reason this otherwise nondescript game is on here is this is a strength vs weakness matchup to the extreme. Rutgers is averaging over 300 yards on the ground while Virginia Tech’s D is 114th in the nation at stopping it. Old Dominion ran for 243 yards against them just last week. So watch out for this one because it’s a game Brent Pry and the Hokies cannot and should not lose.  

Cal (3-0) @ Florida State (0-3): FSU -2, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN2

If you aren’t on Twitter we don’t blame you and you probably aren’t familiar with the new phenomenon sweeping the nation. No, it’s not Fushigi, it’s Cal Twitter. Cal Twitter is a group of Cal fans and now other humorous accounts who made their name after beating Auburn and tweeting a variety of humorous memes that generally play into the liberal-leaning Cal and the historically conservative Auburn. Memes included claiming after the victory Jordan-Hare Stadium is now the property of Antifa and Auburn lost to the woke agenda. Cal Twitter is now going after FSU with a similar meme that should Cal win FSU will have to rename their stadium Woke Campbell Stadium and the halftime show will be a discussion on Critical Race Theory. 

As funny as this new trend on Twitter is, it’s equally as funny that Cal has a legitimate chance to win this game and probably should. Cal QB Fernando Mendoza isn’t lighting the world on fire but he had a 70% completion clip and rarely turns the ball over. He can lean on his defense which is giving up just 12 points/game and is 2nd in the nation with a +8 turnover margin. RB Jaydn Ott - of whom we’ve sung his praises since the inception of this newsletter - has been injured and ineffective this year but Jaivian Thomas and Kadarius Calloway have filled in admirably with Thomas averaging 7.7 yards a carry. There are no signs coming out of Tallahassee that the Noles are considering a QB change to backup Brock Glenn and admitting DJU is as fraudulent and ineffective as ShamWow. Filling in for Jordan Travis last year in the ACC Championship against Louisville and Orange Bowl against Georgia Glenn went 17 of 47 for 194 yards and 2 picks. That’s a 36% completion rate for those wondering. The bad news is FSU is out of options except to improve offensively. The good news is that’s about all they can do because it’s been so heinous. There are 134 teams in FBS football and they rank 133rd in rushing offense, 124th in scoring offense, but 74th (woo!) in passing offense. Vegas thinks this game will be tightly contested but just remember, last offseason FSU voted no on Cal joining the ACC, and if the Bears win we expect Cal Twitter to react appropriately.

#8 Miami (3-0) @ USF (2-1): MIA -16.5, O/U 65.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Two weeks ago, we warned you this very skilled and dangerous USF team would give Alabama some headaches, and we were correct. After a road win at Southern Miss last week, the Bulls come in ready to pull off the biggest upset amongst the true G5 playoff contenders (sorry, NIU, you’re not quite there yet). The USF fanbase has requested more tickets for this game than they have for any game in their history, so much so that they’re opening up the upper deck at Raymond James Stadium for the first time ever for the Bulls. QB Byrum Brown and company are ready to roll.

Miami has looked very good so far, but the shine of that Week 1 Florida win has certainly worn a bit considering how bad Florida has turned out to be. Still, QB Cam Ward has looked like the best quarterback Miami has had in two decades - over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs - and the production of the Hurricanes’ defense looks to finally be matching the level of talent they always have. But USF is the second-best team in the state right now and you can never count out a Mario coaching disaster keeping this game closer than it maybe should be. Just like we expected two weeks ago, we think the Bulls will keep this closer than Vegas is expecting.

Baylor (2-1) @ Colorado (2-1): COLO -1.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

Because it is apparently illegal to consume college football without talking about Deion and Colorado these days, here’s yet another opportunity to watch the Buffs in primetime on a major network despite the fact that they are not good! Colorado is coming off a victory over rival Colorado State after their Week 2 drubbing at the hands of Nebraska, and the noise around this circus is as loud as it’s ever been. From Deion’s war against the media, Shedeur’s shit-talk to both his opponents and his own offensive line, and the countless nonsensical coaching decisions that Prime seems insistent on making every game, we have to admit they are pretty entertaining to watch.

The Big 12 did CU a favor by letting them start conference play against Baylor, who is somehow possibly even worse than Colorado is. We don’t know much about them given the only real team they’ve played is Utah - who stifled them even without having Cam Rising for most of the game - but we certainly do not think this is a good football team. This is a must-win for both Deion and Baylor head coach Dave Aranda because there probably aren’t many more winnable games on either team’s schedule. This won’t be the highest level of football you see on Saturday, but it should be a close game and as always, you should at least tune in to watch Travis Hunter do ridiculous things.

Quick Hitters: Lawsuits Edition

Earlier this week Tennessee announced they’ll be increasing their season ticket prices by 10% for a ‘talent fee’ which is a move to prepare for the incoming revenue sharing with players. This stems from the House case settlements which are still being decided but college administrators have been planning (read: crying) on the budget ramifications for years. Tennessee is not the first entity to pass on costs to their consumers (hello capitalism) but we’d just like to note how expensive it’s becoming to be a college football booster. Season tickets have always been a cost in addition to the Touchdown Club and various facility funding projects a school has. Now you have to contribute to the NIL fund which isn’t affiliated with the school and with revenue distribution coming, season tickets won’t be the only way schools pass off these funds. We’re not Tennessee fans so it doesn’t affect us but it does show a more expensive future. But this newsletter will be making billions for us by then so we’re not worried anyway. The last thing we’ll note is the following for no reason whatsoever: This 10% hike is in addition to a standard and previously announced 4.5% season ticket raise. Tennessee brought in $51.3 million from the SEC’s TV contract and is expected to bring in north of $100 million annually by the end of the decade. Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel makes $9 million annually. Tennessee QB Nico Iamleava is reportedly being paid $2 million/year through the UT collective. Do with that what you will. 

We’ve been following the Clemson/FSU lawsuits against the ACC for months now but haven’t really commented on it because it’s been less entertaining than reading CSPAN closed captions. That was until earlier this week when there’d been renewed discussion over revenue distribution models that’ll hold the conference together in its current state for a while longer. Basically, FSU and Clemson are offering to drop their lawsuits if the ACC bumps back the Grant of Rights (GOR) from 2036 to 2030 and the university presidents agree to a revenue distribution tied to on-field success and TV ratings. There are a lot of notes and considerations including nothing is finalized so if you want to catch up do so here or here. Earlier this year, the ACC agreed to give the revenue earned from success in the NCAA tournament and CFP Playoff to the schools that make it but it’s only a few million dollars. This would give Clemson, FSU, and probably Miami a lot of money no matter how crappy they are on the field because unlike Syracuse, Wake, and Boston College, people don’t tune in to watch them lose. Secondly, bumping the GOR back to 2030 would align with when the current TV deals of the Big 10 and Big 12 expire. All eyes will be on Clemson and FSU leaving then but don’t forget that UNC and UVA will theoretically be free agents and the Big 10 would take them in a heartbeat. It’ll be interesting to see who is the more ‘powerful’ conference between the ACC and Big 12 then. Would West Virginia finally jump ship to the ACC to join geographic rivals Pitt & Virginia Tech and not have to go play conference games in Arizona? UCF and Houston would make more sense in the ACC geographically too. And what about AAC’s Memphis or Tulane? Are they in the Pac-whatever then? Would they hold out until 2030? The answer of course will have nothing to do with geography or logic and everything to do with money, ESPN, and FOX. Lastly, this might be the test dummy for a concept that spreads rapidly throughout college football once implemented. What’s stopping Bama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan from looking at a model like this and saying wait we don’t have to share evenly with Purdue and Vandy? This is a minor development in a saga that will last for years but is important nonetheless and more interesting than covering how many billable hours these lawyers are racking up or which state the judges are agreeing to hear the case.

Tate’s Great Picks (12-12)

#11 USC (2-0) @ #18 Michigan (2-1): USC -5.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick USC -5.5, Under 44.5: When Michigan announced that Alex Orji would be starting against USC earlier this week, the first thing I did was run to bet the under in this game. That total was initially at 46.5, but since Michigan’s announcement has dropped by two points. I’m still all over this - Michigan is going to be incapable of throwing the ball and will therefore be chewing clock all day on offense while probably not scoring many points, while USC will have no reason to do anything but chew clock and control the game themselves if and when they get by a couple scores. There are far more scenarios where this total goes under than ones where it goes over, and that’s because Michigan will not score - and therefore not cover, either.

Cal (3-0) @ Florida State (0-3): FSU -2, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN2

Pick Cal +2: We just saw this Cal defense absolutely dominate a team (Auburn) with a bad quarterback and even better receivers than FSU has. And… has FSU quit yet? It’s coming at some point, and I think they may just fold this weekend if they can’t get anything going offensively. Another fun weekend for Cal Twitter ahead.

#8 Miami (3-0) @ USF (2-1): MIA -16.5, O/U 65.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Pick USF +16.5: I warned you all that this is a dangerous USF team ahead of their matchup with Alabama two weeks ago, and they proved me right by competing with the Tide for 3.5 quarters despite their very talented QB Byrum Brown having an off night through the air. Raymond James is going to be rocking in this one and we haven’t seen Miami play a team this good yet (yes, including Florida). USF keeps it close and maybe pulls off a shocker.

Florida (1-2) @ Mississippi State (1-2): FLA -6, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick UF -6: This is maybe the last game I expect Florida to win this year, so it’s a little odd that I’d pick them to cover a spread on the road against an SEC team. But it cannot be understated how horrendous Mississippi State is right now. These guys are replacing 21 of 22 starters from last year’s team, have absolutely zero depth, and just got their doors blown off by Toledo last week. This may come back to bite me, but I think the Gators roll.

#6 Tennessee (3-0) @ #15 Oklahoma (3-0): TENN -7, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Pick UT -7: Oklahoma has looked very shaky offensively so far while Tennessee’s offense has been nuking the teams they’ve played so far. I don’t think Oklahoma can keep up with the Vols’ offensive output outside of some crazy turnover luck - Vols win by 2+ scores.

OnlyRans (10-20)

Arizona State (3-0) @ Texas Tech (2-1): TTU -3, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FS1

Pick Arizona State +3: I rode (and won) with the Sun Devils on the road last weekend and expect them to do the same here. Texas Tech almost lost to Abilene Christian in Week 1 and then got spanked by Wazzu in Week 2. Red Raiders star RB Tahj Brooks played last weekend after being out with an injury but his replacements are both true freshmen. Even if he is fully recovered, Arizona State’s rush defense is 11th in the country. Forks Up.

#11 USC (2-0) @ #18 Michigan (2-1): USC -5.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick USC -5.5: While my betting picks have been unfathomable, I cannot fathom a world where Michigan keeps this within a touchdown, much less scores two touchdowns. This is Trojans QB Miller Moss’s first true road game and it’s in the Big House no less but I think the air is out of the balloon within Michigan’s fanbase. At least they’ll always have 2023*. 

Baylor (2-1) @ Colorado (2-1): COLO -1.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

Pick Colorado -1.5: Laying the points with the Buffs is risky but the game is at home and this Baylor team is god awful. The one good team they played was Utah who was killing them before Cam Rising left with an injury. They were only up 6-3 to Air Force at halftime before blowing them out in the second. Lastly, the Bears have a QB controversy on their hands and plan to play both the Week 1 starter Dequan Finn and backup Sawyer Robertson. I’ll take the Buffs at home if nothing else for the clout. 

Cal (3-0) @ Florida State (0-3): FSU -2, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN2

Pick Cal +2: Speaking of clout, I do not want to get canceled or lambasted by the indomitable Cal Twitter especially given they come to Winston later this year. Seriously though, how is Florida State favored? Cal’s offensive line is at a disadvantage here but FSU can’t rush the QB effectively and they damn sure can’t stop the run. The Noles might also be without both or their starting tackles on the offensive line. We mentioned Cal is 2nd in the nation with a +8 TO margin but want to take a guess who is 109th with a -3 margin? 

UCLA (1-1) @ #16 LSU (2-1): LSU -24, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Pick UCLA +24: Am I biased because I’m going to be at this game and want it to be competitive, maybe but more on that later. LSU is wildly unpredictable, inconsistent and this is too big of a line against UCLA which might be the worst Big 10 team but still has P4 talent. The line for the LSU-Nicholls game was lower than this and LSU won by 23. Geaux Tigers but the Bruins cover. 

#6 Tennessee (3-0) @ #15 Oklahoma (3-0): TENN -7, O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Pick Tennessee -7: Vols head coach Josh Heupel is the prodigal son of Oklahoma football and now he makes his return in OU’s inaugural SEC game. As we mentioned above, Heupel was the Heisman runner-up when he led the Sooners to a national championship in 2001 under Bob Stoops. As the Sooners OC in 2015, he was let go in favor of some guy named Lincoln Riley. Heupel may not have ill will toward the Sooners - hell, he might be the head coach one day - but he is definitely out for blood and he has the offense to pound them into submission. Kiffin gets all the attention for ‘running up the score’ but last I checked Kiffin has not called an onside kick up 30-0 on Kent State like Heupel did last week. Vols roll here.

Upset Call of the Week

The rules for this new section are simple. We’re both going to pick a double-digit underdog to pull off the upset outright. This does not count for or against our betting totals above (not that it’d matter for Rand) but it’s simply for bragging rights.

Rand: San Jose State over Washington State (-12)

Tate: USF over Miami (-16.5)

Wake Forest & Georgia

The Deacs & the Dawgs are taking the week off so we are going to too. Nevertheless, we will be back with full coverage next week as Georgia heads to Tuscaloosa and the Deacs host Louisiana.

Where In The World Are We?

Tate: My dad and I are gearing up for our road trip to Tuscaloosa for the massive Dawgs/Crimson Tide matchup next Saturday, so I’m taking it easy this weekend to continue to watch all of the games we discussed above and take my beautiful dog Lottie out for some fun. I would not want to be a chicken wing or a Michelob Ultra around me this weekend.

Rand: For those that don’t know me personally that’s probably to your benefit. For those that do, I’m sorry and you probably know about a tradition I have with my dad that unsurprisingly revolves around college football. Almost every year since I was in the 7th grade we’ve taken a trip - usually during a Wake bye week - to another college football game. The number one rule is simple yet profound: The stadium has to be cool. Last year we saw Colorado and Deion host USC while previous trips have included Woke Campbell Stadium, South Carolina, Army-Navy, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, and USC. 

This year we’re knocking off a bucket list trip and heading to Baton Rouge to watch LSU-UCLA. We’ll be in New Orleans on Thursday night and Baton Rouge for the weekend. If you have suggestions for things to do or more importantly a tailgate we can crash please let us know. We won’t show up empty-handed. 

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.