Week 4 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Buckle up everyone because this weekend’s slate of games might be the best we see the entire season. Outside of the six (!!) ranked vs. ranked matchups (most since 2006) you’ve got Florida State going into Death Valley, Jim Harbaugh’s return, and three more unranked matchups between undefeated teams. As we saw last weekend, no matter the slate, CFB always delivers and Week 4 will be no exception. Without further ado, let’s get to it!

7 Week 4 Games to Watch

#4 Florida State (3-0) @ Clemson (2-1): FSU -2.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

It’s difficult to understate the importance of this game for both teams as there are massive ACC and playoff implications on the line. Let’s start first with God’s team, er, Clemson.

If you thought the first half of the Wake game was bad last week, Clemson’s performance against Duke in Week 1 would like to have a word. Since then, Clemson let Charleston Southern take a lead into halftime against them before winning 66-17 and then manhandled FAU last week. QB Cade Klubnik has been better at protecting the ball but can’t fix the fact Clemson might have the most underwhelming WR core in the ACC. Muscle hamster RBs Will Shipley and Phil Mafa take some pressure off the passing game and the offensive line is above average, but FSU’s DL led by Jared Verse is by far the stiffest test to date. Clemson’s kicking game this year has been so bad they literally pulled a former walk-on Johnathan Weitz off the couch where he was doing an online master's and already named him the starter for this game. If Dabo & crew lose this game, Clemson will be eliminated from the playoff race by September which hasn’t happened since the playoff’s inception in 2014. Clemson doesn’t play for Pop-Tarts Bowl appearances. Dabo needs this one.

Mike Norvell & Florida State announced they’re back on the national stage by shellacking LSU in Week 1. However, the ACC runs through Clemson until proven otherwise who have won 7 of the past 8 conference championships. Even with a loss, both teams could still make it to Charlotte since the ACC doesn’t do divisions anymore, just the top 2 teams in the league. Going into Death Valley is never easy but it’s a big advantage that this game is at noon and not 7:30pm. Clemson had a 40-game home win streak until the South Carolina loss at the end of last year. QB Jordan Travis might not be at 100% for this game after tweaking his ankle against Boston College last week. Florida State has been average at running the ball behind potentially overhyped Trey Benson who has a paltry 164 yards on the year. Keon Coleman was nonexistent last week (0 catches) after lighting the world on fire against LSU. He needs to show up alongside 6’7 WR Johnny Wilson before Clemson’s DL gets to Travis.

#19 Colorado (3-0) @ #10 Oregon (3-0): Oregon -21, O/U 70.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

We first have to say that it absolutely sucks that Travis Hunter will be out for this game after getting knocked out of last Saturday’s game following easily the dirtiest hit of the 2023 season thus far. It sucks for us as viewers, it sucks for Colorado who will be losing easily their best player and one of the leaders of the team, and it sucks for Travis Hunter who had a real shot at winning the Heisman Trophy before Deion announced he would be missing the next few games. Did we mention it sucks?

Regardless, this is unquestionably one of the best games of the weekend and we (along with 10 million other people) can’t wait to watch it. Both quarterbacks in this matchup - Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Oregon’s Bo Nix - are legitimate Heisman candidates, and this game will kick off PAC-12 play for both teams. Oregon is favored by three touchdowns, but I think we’ve all learned it’s probably not wise to bet against Deion at this point.

We’re interested to see if Oregon’s pass defense has actually improved after what was an abysmal unit in 2022, and on that same end, interested to see if Sheduer and Colorado’s receivers, led by USF transfers Jimmy Horn Jr. and Xavier Weaver, can continue to dominate as the level of competition steps up. We also can’t wait to see how Colorado’s defense holds up against Nix, elite running back Bucky Irving, and one of the PAC-12’s best receivers in Troy Franklin. But we’re sure that FOX, ESPN, ABC, NBC, CBS, The CW, Nickelodeon, and CourtTV will get you your Colorado fix all weekend, so we’ll leave it there for now.

#22 UCLA (3-0) @ #11 Utah (3-0): Utah -4.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

Utah starting quarterback Cam Rising has missed all of Utah’s first three games this season, and while he has been a full participant in practice for two straight weeks now, head coach Kyle Whittingham recently referred to Rising’s status as “day to day to day to day”. It’s safe to say we aren’t so confident we’re going to see Rising make his debut this weekend, and we expect Nate Johnson - who is more of a running threat - to get his second straight start. The Utes have been able to skate by offensively without Rising in their first three games, but he’ll have to deal with physical freak EDGE Laiutu Latu and UCLA defense that has looked pretty salty so far.

On offense for UCLA, despite head coach Chip Kelly treating his team’s first three games like he is perpetually in the NFL preseason, there has been a lot to like on this group. 5-star phenom freshman QB Dante Moore (Rand told you to buy stock!) has looked really good so far, currently sitting at 5th overall in FBS in pass efficiency. This is yet another PAC-12 in a season that is going to be full of them. We’re high on UCLA, we’re high on Utah, and we think this is a game you should absolutely tune in to.

#15 Ole Miss (3-0) @ #13 Alabama (2-1): Alabama -7, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin started the week off by making it known this year would be no different and he’d be trolling Nick Saban for the entirety of Alabama Week, alleging on Monday that Alabama has secretly made a switch at defensive coordinator and that defensive backs coach Travaris Robinson is actually the one calling the plays for Alabama’s defense now. This feels like classic Lane, but there have been some rumors buzzing around Tuscaloosa that Saban has structured his coaching staff uniquely and that the roles of the coaches aren’t as clearly defined as their titles suggest.

Alabama is coming off an all-time clunker against USF last week, winning 17-3 after benching Jalen Milroe in favor of Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner, who very quickly got benched for 3rd stringer Ty Simpson after Buchner looked like a confused toddler for the entirety of the first half. The Tide are going to trot Kroger-brand-Lamar-Jackson (Milroe) back out there on Saturday after Milroe didn’t take a single snap against USF - yeah, things are real bad at quarterback in T-Town.

On that note, it can’t quite be described how much of an advantage Ole Miss has at the sport’s most important position - Rebel quarterback Jaxson Dart has looked incredible so far, despite Ole Miss’ receiving corp being thoroughly banged up through the first three weeks of the season. Kiffin’s offense looks to be one of the best in the nation once again, and this just really feels like a team that has what it takes to roll into Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama.

It will be interesting to see if the Ole Miss defense can continue to look like an improved unit and keep Milroe in obvious passing downs, where he remains thoroughly uncomfortable. On the Alabama end, Saban and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees have to find a way to get some designed runs opened up for Milroe, because as bad as he is as a dropback passer, he is absolutely electric and equally elite on the ground.

This is a big, big, BIG game for both programs and coaching staffs, and we recommend you lock into this one on Saturday afternoon.

#14 Oregon State (3-0) @ #21 Washington State (3-0): OSU -3, O/U 58 - Saturday 7:00pm ET FOX

While we are pumped about this game, we’re frankly sad that one of these teams will come out with a loss. These are the last two schools that are set to remain in the PAC-12, or uhh, the PAC-2, after the 2023 season, following the Big Ten and Big 12 plucking the other ten members of the conference. We just want to see these two teams kick the shit out of everyone in this league and slam the door on them all as they leave the league.

But this week they have to play each other, and we can’t quite describe the level of “tuned-in” we will be for this one. Head coach Jonathan Smith once again has his Oregon State Beavers playing fast, physical, and mean this year - and Washington State head coach Jake Dickert can say the exact same thing! Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei (Clemson transfer) has looked remarkably improved so far this season, as has Washington State’s QB Cam Ward. This game may not have the name recognition that other matchups will have in this league, but if you asked us both for a reason why we love college football so much, we’d just be able to point at this game. This is an awesome one.

#6 Ohio State (3-0) @ #9 Notre Dame (3-0): OSU -3.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Colorado & the PAC-12 are sucking up so much oxygen, you tend to forget about the only top 10 matchup of the weekend. All eyes will be on Ohio State QB Kyle McCord and Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman who look to officially announce their arrival on the biggest stage. Look for NBC & commentator Jason Garrett to bludgeon you to death with the fact that Hartman didn’t have the same talent around him at Wake Forest but that’s a conversation for another time.

Ohio State’s offense finally showed up and hung 63 on WKU last weekend. Lost in all the discourse about Ohio State’s offense and QB Kyle McCord not being on the same page with his all-world WRs, is the fact that this defense is elite. Former 5-stars Jack Sawyer & JT Tuimoloau anchor the best DL the Buckeyes have had since Chase Young and CB Denzel Burke is probably the best corner in the country. Many irrational OSU fans have Ryan Day on the hot seat even though he’s 48-6 in his career but has lost two Michigan two years in a row. Expectations & standards are higher in Columbus than probably anywhere in the country, and losing to Notre Dame will not sit well with this absurd fanbase - fair or not.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman was handed the keys to the Bentley when Brian Kelly left South Bend for LSU. He doesn’t have a signature win on his resume yet but does have signature losses in the form of Marshall and Stanford last year. Notre Dame has been waiting on a quarterback like Hartman for literal decades now, and they think he’s the last piece to the puzzle. Their defense is stout, the stable of running backs led by Audric Estime is phenomenal, and this game is at home under the lights. It’s time for Notre Dame & Freeman to prove it against a team that was a last-second kick away from likely winning the national championship last year.

#24 Iowa (3-0) @ #7 Penn State (3-0): PSU -14.5, O/U 40 - Saturday 7:30pm ET CBS

We aren’t entirely sure why Iowa is ranked, but because they are, we feel obligated to lump this game in with the games above since this is a ranked vs ranked matchup.

If you haven’t followed Iowa football over the past couple of years, here is a quick synopsis: Iowa’s head coach is Kirk Ferentz. Kirk Ferentz hired his son, Brian Ferentz, to be the offensive coordinator in 2017. There are truly no words in the English language to describe how pathetic Iowa’s offense has been since, and instead of doing the obvious thing and firing a clearly inept and unqualified offensive coordinator last year, daddy decided to restructure son’s contract to include a clause that if Iowa does not average 25 points per game (defense & special teams point) this season, son’s contract will not be renewed. Iowa is currently averaging only 28.3 points per game and hasn’t even gotten to conference play yet.

With that said, Iowa’s defense has been incredible for all of those years despite the Hawkeyes’ offensive ineptitude, and this will be a real test for quarterback Drew Allar and Penn State’s offense. Penn State has College Football Playoff hopes this season, the crowd will be doing their annual white-out, and the atmosphere should be absolutely hype. This game is what college football is about.

11 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

Wisconsin (2-1) @ Purdue (1-2): WIS -6, O/U 53.5 - Friday 7:00pm ET FS1

Even though Purdue lost and fumbled the ball four times last week, they played pretty well against Syracuse. Five total turnovers are an aberration and we are bullish on Texas transfer QB Hudson Card under new HC Ryan Walters for the Boilermakers. Wisconsin is still looking for an identity on offense behind new air raid OC Phil Longo and head coach Luke Fickell. An interesting Friday night game between two programs still trying to find their footing but love chucking the ball all over the field.

N.C. State (2-1) @ Virginia (0-3): NCST -9.5, O/U 48 - Friday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Do you have better plans on Friday night? Didn’t think so. N.C. State offensive coordinator Robert Anae and transfer QB Brennan Armstrong return to Charlottesville after breaking offensive records for the Hoos back in 2021. Virginia is still really bad, but State is always good for one inexcusable loss per season. Keep your eye on this one.

Rutgers (3-0) @ #2 Michigan (3-0): Michigan -24, O/U 44 - Saturday 12:00pm ET BTN

Rutgers has played three atrocious teams in Northwestern, Temple, and Virginia Tech. Now they head to The Big House to play Michigan and Jim Harbaugh who returns from his three-game suspension. Even though QB JJ McCarthy threw three interceptions last week against Bowling Green while Rutgers has looked surprisingly competent, Big Blue will roll here. Wake us up in November when Michigan heads to Happy Valley and plays someone with a pulse.

Auburn (3-0) @ Texas A&M (2-1): TAMU -7.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Talk about a big one for Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher… The Aggies looked good on offense last week against UL Monroe, but it’s time for the defense to get themselves into shape and show that this is still a team to be reckoned with in the SEC. This is an absolute must-win for TAMU - if they lose to Auburn at home, it may very well prompt some Texas A&M boosters to start checking the price of oil.

Virginia Tech (1-2) @ Marshall (2-0): Marshall -5, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN2

Do. not. watch. this. game. Instead, admire from afar that Virginia Tech, fresh off a 19-point drubbing to Rutgers, has to go into Huntington, WV, and play a very solid Marshall team who will treat this game like their Super Bowl. To make matters worse, the Hokies might be without their starting QB & interception machine Grant Wells yet again. This is the same Marshall team that went into South Bend and beat Notre Dame last year. Thundering Herd head coach Charles Huff won’t be long for the Marshall sideline as he should get hired away by a bigger program (hello Michigan State) in the near future. Fun Fact: Tate owns like 7 different pieces of Marshall apparel.

SMU (2-1) @ TCU (2-1): TCU -6.5, O/U 64 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FS1

As if the ‘Battle for the Iron Skillet’ didn’t need enough heat (pun intended) this past offseason, TCU said they are pausing the series following the 2025 meeting. Additionally, TCU head coach Sonny Dykes used to coach at SMU and last year's game was a 42-34 slugfest. Expect SMU to show up for this one and sling the rock all over to field behind QB Preston Stone.

BYU (3-0) @ Kansas (3-0): Kansas -8.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

BYU just strolled into Fayetteville, AR, and knocked off the previously unbeaten Razorbacks. Now they head to the Sunflower State to play Rock Chalk QB Jalon Daniels in their first Big 12 conference game. While the Arkansas win was quasi-impressive (Arkansas might not be that good) the 14-0 season-opening win over Sam Houston State in Provo is an eyesore. Jalon Daniels continues to improve each week coming back from injury but has yet to show the same dynamic running ability from last year. Kansas is the better team, but BYU might be able to pull off the upset in Lawrence behind QB Kedon Slovis. Yes, the same guy who replaced JT Daniels at USC years ago and was at Pitt last year. He still exists.

Texas Tech (1-2) @ West Virginia (2-1): TTU -6, O/U 55 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN+

West Virginia head coach Neal Brown turned down the temperature on the hot seat chatter last week by beating rival Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. We think Pitt’s offense might just be absolutely horrendous and would like to see Neal Brown prove it once again. Unfair? Perhaps, but when you’re not even .500 in 4+ years in Morgantown and heading into Big 12 play, you need to have this one. Texas Tech on the other hand was the dark horse darling of the offseason and needs to prove the hype was warranted after a 1-2 start.

Oklahoma State (2-1) @ Iowa State (1-2): ISU -3.5, O/U 36.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FS1

This game will not be watchable…just look at that O/U. However, whoever loses this game will have their fans rioting in the streets. Both of these programs have been models of consistency and punched well above their weight under the current head coaches for the past decade or so. At Iowa State, Matt Campbell was once being floated for jobs like Michigan & Ohio State, now he’s yelling at fans and presides over one of the worst offenses in college football. Oklahoma State and head coach Mike Gundy have been married for 20+ years and really have stuck with each other for better & for worse. Remember when he wore an OAN shirt and his star player boycotted? Or when he personally interviewed women hostesses to, ummmm, ‘host’ recruits? Back on the field, we all know the old saying if you have two quarterbacks you have none. Well, Gundy took that to heart and has been rotating three quarterbacks in every game this year including the 33-7 loss to South Alabama last time out. Gundy hasn’t officially said who will start this week's game (if anyone) but rumor has it he’s made his decision. We’re going to list off the three contestants and see if you can figure it out: Alan Bowman, Garret Rangel, and Gunnar Gundy.

Arkansas (2-1) @ #12 LSU (2-1): LSU -17.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

This one may not be particularly close, but this will be another data point for us to determine what this LSU team really is. The SEC West is wide open right now, and LSU looks like they may be the best team there. But Arkansas has a history of beating superior LSU teams and almost knocked off the Tigers in November last year. These two schools don’t particularly like each other, and this is always a fun matchup to watch.

App State (2-1) @ Wyoming (2-1): WYO -3, O/U 43 - Saturday 7:00pm ET CBSSN

Wyoming might be 4th & Forever’s Group of Five darlings given how much we’ve written about this team. They beat Texas Tech & Portland State at home to open the season before falling at Texas last weekend. The Cowboy's physical defense will keep them in every game (see: tied 10-10 with Texas entering the 4th quarter) while the offense simply runs the ball down your throat. Next into the Laramie Deathcage is App State who has the best RB you’ve never heard of - Nate Noel - and a high-flying offense (40+ in every game) led by their backup QB Joey Aguilar. This should be a really entertaining game between two very well-coached Group of Five teams.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (3-0): Another week, another game that the Dawgs are favored by like 6 touchdowns. The Dawgs take on first-year head coach and former NFL QB Trent Dilfer and UAB this Saturday in what will be another glorified scrimmage. But if last Saturday taught us anything, it’s that this team has a lot to improve upon if they expect to win it all again.

It’s time for this team to kick this shit into gear and come out ready to play. Plain and simple. I want to see a touchdown on the first possession, I want to see shots taken down the field early and often and I want a 50+ yard Arian Smith touchdown. The Dawgs simply cannot continue to come out of the gates slow for the fourth straight game.

Kirby has stayed consistent in his praise of Carson Beck, but having rewatched the South Carolina game, I have been a bit curious if the offensive staff has drilled the importance of ball security into his head to the point that he is subconsciously scared of looking at his downfield reads, particularly early in games. If so, that needs to stop. Beck has one of the best arms in college football right now and the offense is littered with speedy playmakers all over the field. I am expecting those things to start becoming apparent this week.

It’s just UAB and I don’t find a big game breakdown very necessary, so here are three things I’m hoping for this Saturday:

1. Points on each of the first three offensive possessions - We all know that the Dawgs have been plagued by slow starts this season, but the offense hasn’t exactly been inept. In both the Ball State and South Carolina games, the offense started the game with 13 and 11-play drives, respectively, and came away with a total of 3 points. The red zone offense has been ineffective, and freshman kicker Peyton Woodring has missed multiple chip-shot field goals. Whether they’re touchdowns or field goals, let’s get some points on the board early and often on Saturday.

2. Cohesion and consistency on the offensive line - The Dawgs lost starting right tackle and projected first-round pick Amarius Mims to a high ankle sprain last Saturday, but once starting left guard Xavier Truss moved to RT to replace him (and Dylan Fairchild replaced Truss at LG), the Dawgs started to get more of a consistent push in the run game. This running back room remains extremely thin, so this offensive line needs to start helping that group out on a consistent basis.

3. A shutout - UAB has looked like a little bit of a mess so far this season, and the 2023 Dawgs defense is yet to put up a shutout in 2023. The defense has looked good, but it’s time to start looking like the most elite unit in the country for the third year in a row. We should be getting Javon Bullard back at safety, which is big, and the overall health of the defense seems to be at a season high so far. The defense looked incredible in the 2nd half of the South Carolina game, and I’m getting the feeling that this group is about to really round into shape. I’m expecting a big game from this defense on Saturday.

Wake Forest (3-0): The Deacs return to Winston-Salem this weekend to take on the rebuilding Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at 6:30pm ET on the CW Network. Wake opened as 7-point favorites but has been bet down to Wake -4 with the O/U set at 60 so Vegas is expecting some points here.

Georgia Tech is 1-2 on the year with a win over SC State and respectable losses to Louisville and Ole Miss. Head coach Brent Key was the interim coach after they fired Geoff Collins after 4 games last season and led a pretty successful campaign that included upset wins @ UNC (lol), @ Pitt, and vs Duke. After Tech failed to come up with enough money in the offseason to bring Willie Fritz over from Tulane, they made Key the full-time coach. Nothing says we believe in you more than trying to replace you to only end up sticking with you because you’re cheaper.

Transfer QB Haynes King was supposed to be the savior at Texas A&M but lack of production and injuries brought him to Atlanta. King is completing 66% of his passes on the year with 9 TDs to only 1 interception and can tuck it and run if needed. Tech has a balanced offensive attack that isn’t very explosive but nonetheless effective. Key is a former offensive line coach which is a strength of their offense. King has only been sacked 3 times which is a bit misleading as Ole Miss and Louisville don’t have game wreckers on the DL like Wake does.

Defense, on the other hand, is where the Jackets struggle and that might be putting it lightly. Ole Miss only punted once last week, SC State averaged 4.8 yards a play, and they have 1 sack and 7 TFLs on the year which is good for dead last in the FBS (133/133). Opponents are averaging 7.2 yards per play which is good for a minor improvement to 130th in the country. Louisville & Ole Miss have two of the best offenses in the country but Wake and OC Warren Ruggiero is not the team you want to be prepping for if you have a swiss cheese defense.

For Wake, the game plan should be pretty simple, establish the run to set up bombs downfield to Grimes & Banks. Georgia Tech cannot stop the run to save their lives so I expect big games out of Justice Ellison & Demond Claiborne. The weather is also showing a 60% chance of rain which will play into Wake’s favor. I want to see improvement out of Mitch Griffis & the passing game after the 1st Half of Horrors from last week, but there’s no need to force it with how easily we should be able to run the ball. Turnovers & red zone inefficiency have been backbreakers for us and have to be improved upon. Take care of the ball, limit pre-snap penalties, and establish the run. Let Ellison Eat & Let Claiborne Cook. I’ll come up with a culinary-inspired nickname for our backfield in due time.

Wake Forest as a team is currently leading the nation in total sacks with 16 while LB Jacob Roberts leads the nation with 5 sacks. Number two on that list is no other than DL Jasheen Davis with 4.5 sacks which is ludacris given our defenses of old. King & Tech don’t push the ball downfield much, instead relying on short & intermediate passes to move the ball. Advantage Wake. We won’t replicate the 10-sack performance from last week but I do expect lots of QB hurries, pressures, and havoc plays to keep Tech off-balanced. LB & captain Chase Jones will be out yet again (concussion) and with a lot of focus on Jacob Roberts, I expect a big game out of LB Dylan Hazen who is my stock watch pick of the week.

Tate’s Great Picks (6-13)

Cal (2-1) @ #8 Washington (3-0): Wash -21 O/U 60 - Saturday 10:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Washington -21: Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. looks absolutely incredible so far, the Huskies have at least three NFL receivers for him to throw to, and Washington’s offense as a whole has looked like the best in college football through three weeks. Cal, on the other hand, scored 10 points and turned the ball over three times in a loss to Auburn two weekends ago. I’m all over the Huskies here.

#17 North Carolina (3-0) @ Pittsburgh (1-2): UNC -7.5 O/U 50.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Pick - UNC -7.5: What the hell is this line? I know this Pittsburgh defense isn’t bad, but dude, what? I know that the game is on the road for UNC, but brother, what? I know hours of analysis go into setting these lines for books and I’m just some guy that is 6-13 on the year, but brother, what are we talking about here? Pitt quarterback Phil Jurkovec doesn’t look anywhere close to an ACC-caliber QB right now, and Pitt might have the worst offense in the power five. UNC, on the other hand, has a top 5 pick at quarterback in Drake Maye and looks to have one of the better offenses in the FBS for 3rd of 4th straight year. This line screams “trap”, but it cannot be overemphasized how bad Pitt has looked so far. Sorry Rand, but I’m expecting the Tar Heels to cover this spread with ease.

Texas State (2-1) @ Nevada (0-3): Texas State -17 O/U 59.5 - Saturday 7:00 ET ESPN+

Pick: Texas State -17: New Texas State coach G.J. Kinne has brought a new high-flying offense to Texas State this year, scoring 42 points on 441 total yards of offense against Baylor in week 1, and scoring 77 last week on Deion’s former school Jackson State. Nevada, meanwhile, is one of the worst teams in FBS, and lost to FCS Idaho 33-6 two weeks ago. I’d maybe suggest buying half a point to grab Texas State at -16.5 just to avoid a push, but I am fully expecting Texas State to run away with this one.

#16 Oklahoma (3-0) @ Cincinnati (2-1): Oklahoma -14.5 O/U 57.5 - Saturday 12:00 ET FOX

Pick: Oklahoma -14.5: Oklahoma’s offense has looked like an absolute wagon so far, rolling through every opponent they’ve played with ease, while Cincinnati lost to Miami of Ohio last week. The Sooners will be looking to keep looking sharp ahead of their matchup with #3 Texas in a few weeks, and this Cincinnati team simply does not have the offense to keep up once they (likely inevitably) get down early. Sooners roll here.

My underdog moneyline parlay special this week will cover some big games this week - we’re going with UCLA ML, Notre Dame ML, and Ole Miss ML (note: these are in order of my confidence). I really believe all of these will hit. Ole Miss brings in a vastly superior quarterback and overall offense against Alabama, Notre Dame is playing at home and has the better and much more experienced QB, and frankly, I think UCLA is a better team than Utah right now. My underdog ML parlay hit last week, and I think I’m going to keep it going this week.

OnlyRans (10-11)

#5 USC (3-0) @ Arizona State (1-2): USC -35 O/U 62 - Saturday 10:30pm ET FOX

Pick - USC -35: Let’s check in on the Sun Devils' recent scoring output: 24, 15, and 0. Now for USC’s: 56, 66, and 56. USC is coming off a bye week and Arizona State will be without their starting QB Jaden Rashada again. Fight On.

Cal (2-1) @ #8 Washington (3-0): Wash -21 O/U 60 - Saturday 10:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Wash -21: Led by current Heisman frontrunner QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington’s offense is essentially let’s launch the ball down 30+ yards down the field and let the three future NFL receivers go get it. A solid strategy that has paid off with scoring margins of 56-19, 43-10, and 41-7. Cal meanwhile smoked North Texas in Week 1, scored 10 points on Auburn in Week 2, and rallied from 17 down to beat Idaho 31-17 last week. Cal’s star RB Jadyn Ott missed last week and is still TBD for this game. Give me the Huskies plus the points under the lights at home.

Maryland (3-0) @ Michigan State (2-1): MD -7.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Maryland -7.5: The past two weeks Maryland has messed around in the first quarter with Charlotte & UVA by letting them go up by a touchdown or two before eventually pressing the gas and winning big. Eventually, this ill-advised game plan will catch up to them, but not this week against Sparty with all their off-the-field issues.

SMU (2-1) @ TCU (2-1): TCU -6.5, O/U 64 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FS1

Pick - O 64: This matchup was also touched on above but both offenses throw the ball a ton and think defense is for the weak. In a rivalry game with firepower at the skill positions in both locker rooms, this might hit the over by the 3rd quarter.

Mississippi State (2-1) @ South Carolina (1-2): South Carolina -6.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET SECN

Pick - South Carolina -6.5: Mississippi State got annihilated by LSU & WR Malik Nabers last week and now has to face QB Spencer Rattler and stud WR Xavier Legette. This line opened at SC -3.5 so people are with me here! Absolutely won’t be proven wrong.

For my moneyline upsets of the week let’s go with Notre Dame ML and Washington State ML. Both are 3-point underdogs at home and I think QBs Sam Hartman & Cam Ward do just enough to secure the upset.

Where in the World Are We?

Rand is doing the unthinkable and missing a home Wake Forest football game. Before you call the authorities to issue a wellness check, rest assured it’s for a justifiable reason. He will be in South Bend, Indiana at the Notre Dame-Ohio State game with Wake friend & old roommate Joe Gorsche. Tate will be debating which couch in Atlanta he will be sitting on to give him the best angle of his 3-TV setup he intends to formulate on Saturday to watch a truly disgusting amount of college football.

Hope you have a fantastic weekend and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through our good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.