Week 3 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We learn something new every weekend in college football and this weekend was no different. On Saturday we learned everyone sucks and everyone needs to be fired immediately. Alabama turned in the worst performance under Saban since they lost to ULM in 2007. Almost every other Top 10 team struggled one way or another, while Tennessee got annihilated in The Swamp by the Gators. College football always delivers and Week 3 was further proof of that. Without further ado, let’s get to it!

What We Learned in Week 3

Does Everybody Suck?

We think it’s a fair question to ask! #1 Georgia looked somewhat pedestrian against South Carolina. #2 Michigan beat FBS bottom feeder Bowling Green 31-6, but the score was 7-6 well into the 2nd quarter and QB JJ McCarthy threw three interceptions. #3 Florida State survived a putrid Boston College team by two points (more below), while #4 Texas took a 10-10 tie into the 4th quarter against Wyoming. #6 Ohio State struggled out of the gate for the 3rd straight game, #10 Alabama looked horrible against USF, needing a touchdown with under a minute to play to make it 17-3 and seal the game, and #11 Tennessee lost by two touchdowns to a Florida team who might not make a bowl game. #15 Kansas State lost to Missouri too, but we’d primarily like to highlight the legendary ‘thicker kicker’ Harrison Mevis, who hit a 61-yard field goal as time expired to win the game.

Even in the next tiers of the sport we saw some bad football being played. Oklahoma State got smoked 33-7 by South Alabama despite South Al playing without a few of its best players, Pitt’s offense looked so atrocious for the second week in a row that West Virginia players literally said after the game, “we knew coming into the game, their quarterback wasn’t good at his job.” Arkansas lost at home to BYU, Vanderbilt lost to UNLV, and historic program Virginia Tech continues their journey through purgatory, losing by 19 to Rutgers. We think this is going to be a very exciting year of college football when it comes to the playoff race, but everybody looks pretty far from unbeatable right now. This might be a big year of upsets in college football, and we aren’t complaining.

The PAC-12 is still really good!

We’ve mentioned it before, but this final season of PAC-12 football might go down as the best ever. #8 Washington walked into East Lansing and hung 35 on the Mel Tucker-less Spartans, and that was just the halftime score. Cal, UCLA, Utah, and Washington State all handled their business against FCS opponents while Arizona, Oregon State, and Oregon didn’t mess around, comfortably beating UTEP, San Jose State, and Hawai’i respectively. #6 USC & Caleb Williams had the week off, while poor, poor Stanford lost 30-23 to Sacramento State. That’s a game you simply can’t lose especially if your new head coach Troy Taylor came from the school that just beat you. Stanford avoided the worst performance of the weekend thanks to Arizona State who lost 29-0 to Fresno State at home and turned the rock over a mere 8 times.

All Coasts Conference

The narrative coming out of Week 1 in the ACC was who would meet Florida State in Charlotte, but now, are we even sure the Seminoles will be there? That was an all-time clunker of a game for the Noles. A 31-29 survival against Boston College who has a loss to NIU and a survival of their own against Holy Cross on their resume is not what you want to see when you have to head to Death Valley in a week. This game might turn out to be an aberration in the grand scheme of things, but Boston College almost won this game while committing 18 penalties and throwing a pick. FSU QB Jordan Travis needs to get healthy and remember that WR Keon Coleman exists who ended the game with the same number of receiving yards as Rand & Tate had.

Elsewhere, Clemson took care of business against FAU 48-14 while QB Cade Klubnik protected the football and managed 4 TDs. We won’t read too much into a victory over FAU but good looks for the previously inept Clemson offense. North Carolina & Duke beat up on their BIG 10 opponents Minnesota & Northwestern, while N.C. State handled the mighty VMI Keydets (sorry Dad). 0-3 Virginia is doing a great job of proving they’re the worst team in Power 5 losing 42-14 to Maryland on Friday night, while Louisville nearly blew a 21-point lead to Indiana who is hot on UVA’s heels for the throne. The ACC race is wide open and we are going to learn a lot more this coming weekend.

Alright, let’s talk Colorado…

We have a website that we’re tracking engagement on now, so we need to talk about Colorado for the #algorithm purposes (Deion Sanders Colorado, Taylor Swift Travis Kelce, NFL rizzes up Livvy Dunne, #algorithm). We are having just as much fun watching Deion and this Colorado team as the next person, but my goodness, can some of this media coverage pump the brakes just a little? ESPN’s College GameDay & First Take, Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff, and even 60 Minutes went to Boulder to cover the game and do Deion features. With Colorado going into overtime against a 0-1 Mountain West team, color analyst Louis Riddick managed to say, and I quote, “He (Deion) has alchemized a moribund program and football consciousness and made it something special.” Dude what? We’re not saying he’s wrong, but gooooooodness gracious man, we’re jumping the shark a little bit here. The Buffs travel to Eugene to take on #10 Oregon next week, which will be Colorado’s first game against an actually good team. If Colorado pulls off a victory, we promise to publicly admit that Deion has alchemized our football consciousness.

Quick Hitters

We are intrigued by #14 LSU following the Tigers’ 41-14 victory over Mississippi State. MSU might be very bad, but LSU looks to be answering some of the questions that came up after their opening week loss to FSU, especially QB Jayden Daniels, who went 30-34 for 361 yards and 2 touchdowns, adding another 64 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Wide receiver Malik Nabers had an incredible day, catching 13 passes for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns. With Alabama continuing to look dreadful, this LSU team appears to still be the favorite to win the SEC West through 3 weeks. We’re keeping a close eye on LSU to see how this progresses.

#19 Oklahoma hasn’t played a very good team yet, but they are really starting to look underrated, thrashing Tulsa 66-17 on the road on Saturday. The Sooners look fast, physical, and like they have something to prove following a 6-7 season in head coach Brent Venables’ first year. We’re only a few weeks away from what could be an all-time Red River Rivalry game against #4 Texas, so we’re interested to see if Oklahoma continues to demolish inferior competition until then. Good stuff, Sooners.

Iowa State lost 10-7 to Ohio and head coach Matt Campbell had to be held back from a fan who said he was on the hot seat. Cincinnati lost 31-24 to in-state rival Miami (OH) for the first time since Big Ben was a rookie in the NFL. Miami (OH) was led by QB Brett Gabbert who is the younger brother of backup NFL QB legend Blaine Gabbert. JMU scored an impressive win at Troy and then the coaches decided to shit-talk the Troy student section which is always endorsed by us at 4th & Forever.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 1-4 - Season Record: 10-11

Washington -16.5: W - beat Michigan State 41-7

Colorado -23.5: L - beat Colorado State 43-35 in 2OT

Tennessee -6.5: L - lost to Florida 29-16

Purdue ML: L - lost 35-20 to Syracuse

Central Michigan @ Notre Dame U 51.5: L - Notre Dame won 41-17

Good god, what was that? Did Tate rewrite my picks before we published them last Thursday? No, I actually picked all of those duds, had my worst week of the year, and dropped to below .500 for the first time this season. It was a great day to be the house as the three most bet spreads (Colorado, Kansas State, and Tennessee) all failed to cover. It was just one of those weekends in CFB.

Colorado is the greatest show on turf right now, but as I said last week, are you really going to enjoy putting money down against Colorado? Billy Napier & Florida played physical, ball-control football, essentially daring Tennessee & QB Joe Milton to beat them, which they weren’t able to. Conversely, Purdue decided ball security was optional by fumbling it 7 times, losing 4 of them, and throwing a pick just for good measure. Rough day for OnlyRans but it could be worse (see below).

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 1-3 - Season Record: 6-13

Washington -16.5: W - beat Michigan State 41-7

Tennessee -6.5: L - lost to Florida 29-16

Western Kentucky +29: L - lost to Ohio State 63-10

Georgia -27.5: W - beat South Carolina 24-14

Just a brutal year so far folks. Washington got me an easy W, but as has been the story all season, everything fell apart later in the day. I knew that Tennessee line looked like a trap, and as we discussed above, it turns out Tennessee sucks. I thought we had a really solid chance with Western Kentucky when the Hilltoppers scored and made it 14-10 halfway through the second quarter while Ohio State’s offense continued to look iffy, but Western Kentucky followed that up by turning the ball over on three straight possessions before halftime, and then seemingly quit in the 2nd half. The unexpected rain hurt us with Georgia who started playing extremely conservative for the entire first half, and then playing conservative again later in the game when we took a two-possession lead and the rain started really coming down.

To make matters even funnier, I sent a quick parlay pick I called the “ML Sprinkle Parlay” on Saturday morning to some friends. This parlay included underdog ML’s for Ohio, Missouri, and South Alabama. All three of those teams pulled off upsets, but because I am a complete doofus, I also threw in Dawgs -27.5 to get back some more $ on the parlay. Just ridiculous, I clearly suck at betting. Keep an eye out for my picks on Thursday - it may be time for me to start fading myself.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (3-0) - UGA 24 - South Carolina 14: As I was driving back home from Athens on Saturday, completely drenched from sitting in the rain for 3.5 hours, I knew I’d come in here to absolutely rip our coaching staff for the Dawgs’ dreadful first half performance against the Cocks. South Carolina opened the game with a really nice game script on their first drive, identifying where UGA’s DB’s were playing soft, getting the ball out of Rattler’s hands quickly, and taking a 7-0 lead on the first possession. Fine, we can live with that. But then the Dawgs’ offense took the field, and the shitshow started.

I have never seen this coaching staff so scared of messing up, so scared of the weather, so convinced that they could run the ball on 1st and 2nd down and then hit a quick little route to convert on 3rd down. The entire first half for the offense felt like we thought we could be as bland and vanilla as we were against UT Martin and Ball State, and still just cruise to victory. Our first drive ended in the redzone when, inevitably, we didn’t convert a 3rd down after running it up the gut on first and second, and had to settle for a field goal. Kirby and Bobo didn’t let Carson Beck take a single shot downfield in the first half, while Spencer Rattler and South Carolina were chucking up haymakers left and right, playing like they wanted to win. It was a really pathetic effort for the offense in the first half, and it was really starting to get a little concerning about how conservative - and untrusting of Beck - things had looked all season to that point.

But then the 2nd half started, and the staff seemed to come to their senses. Beck opened the half by throwing three straight completions on the first three plays, including a 36-yard throw over the top of South Carolina’s defense to Rara Thomas - the first downfield shot Beck had been allowed to take to that point. The Dawgs immediately looked like they were playing with urgency as soon as the second half started and very quickly took the lead back, which was great. But that urgency and effort made the approach in the first half even more inexcusable. This was a failure of a game by the staff, and they really need to tighten things up and start trusting Carson Beck to make throws, because we will find ourselves in a situation where we need him to.

As for a few things I did like on Saturday:

• It was awesome to see Daijun Edwards back in the backfield, he really carried us offensively, going for 118 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. We need him to stay healthy, and we need to start giving Dillon Bell more of the load at RB, too.

• Amarius Mims went down with a sprained ankle which is not great for the offensive line, but I actually thought the OL group stepped up when Xavier Truss slid over to Right Tackle to replace Mims. This OL has still been a bit of a disappointment so far this season, but Saturday was a step in the right direction in my opinion.

• Perimeter blocking, something Kirby’s UGA teams have prided themselves on, had been lackluster in the first couple of games, but I thought the receivers did a nice job getting physical and getting in front of defenders on Saturday. That will go a long way to help out a thin group of running backs this season.

• Mykel Williams is a freak, and 5-star freshman DL Jordan Hall is really starting to make an impact. Both of those guys, particularly Williams, started to really abuse South Carolina’s OL in the 2nd half and made things hard on Rattler. It’s very good to see the pass rush continue to improve game-by-game.

• Walk-on Mekhi Mews was the story of the first two weeks, and while he didn’t make much of an impact on Saturday, two other walk-ons did. Walk-on running back Cash Jones had a 13-yard touchdown to give the Dawgs a two-possession lead in the 4th quarter, and walk-on safety Dan Jackson followed that up by intercepting Rattler with 4:00 on the clock to essentially seal the game for Georgia. For all of the talk about how Kirby just simply has the best players in the country, this staff continues to develop the lower end of their roster into legitimate SEC players. Best player development in the country, and that was on display again on Saturday.

The first half was a joke, but I thought the Dawgs showed a lot of toughness, poise, and resilience in the 2nd half. But for the love of all things holy, can we please get off to faster starts? We get to tune things up against UAB next Saturday, and then we travel to Auburn for our first road test. This staff needs to get this thing rolling and start trusting Carson Beck to sling it early and often, or we may find ourselves in another 2022 Missouri game situation, and we don’t have Stetson Bennett to bail us out anymore.

Wake Forest (3-0): NEVER A DOUBT! As predicted, Wake waltzed into Norfolk, executed their offensive game plan to perfection, and had their starters on the bench by halftime after a stress-free afternoon. Back on planet Earth, Wake was down 17-0 at halftime and 24-7 in the third quarter but was able to come back and beat the Monarchs 27-24. It wasn’t pretty at all, but Clawson stuck with QB Mitch Griffis who led one of the worst halves of Wake Forest football I’ve seen since the mid-2010’s when our punter was breaking NCAA records for career number of punts.

My betting picks weren’t great but I’m certainly going to take my victory lap from my game preview in last Thursday’s newsletter. “Don’t underestimate the Monarchs as they’ve beaten Power 5 opponents in Norfolk before (namely Virginia Tech) and nearly pulled off a few more upsets. In past years, Wake has messed around with some Group of Five opponents and almost lost - see Tulane, @ App State, Utah State with Jordan Love, and Liberty last year. I’m confident but this is not Elon.” Uh, yeah not much left to say about that. It’s a miracle Wake hasn’t lost to one of these Group of 5 teams yet which means I’ll be on high alert when UConn comes to town and we go back to Michie Stadium and play Army next year where we famously won 70-56 a few years ago.

“This is also QB Mitch Griffis’ first start away from Winston-Salem…Mitch is going to need to make some throws and push the ball downfield.” In the first half, Griffis played like it was his first start in his life. The ineptitude was highlighted by an interception, an 80-yard strip-sack touchdown for the Monarchs, and only 110 yards of passing to 17 yards of rushing. “If the offense stays on schedule, balances the run & passing attacks, and doesn’t turn the ball over, we should be walking out of Norfolk with a comfortable dub even if ODU puts up points.” None of that happened for the Deacs who as mentioned, were down 17-0 heading into halftime. After opening the second half with a methodical 75-yard TD drive capped by a 27-yard TD to WR Taylor Morin, Griffis then threw a pick-6 to put the Monarchs up 24-7 in the middle of the third quarter.

Lost in this offensive malpractice, was that the Wake defense decided to play like the 85 Bears and completely suffocated the Monarchs. After letting ODU WR Javon Harvey go for 160+ yards on just 3 catches with a TD in the first half, he didn’t record a catch in the second. ODU’s second-half drives resulted in the following: 3-and-out, 3-and-out, punt, fumble, punt, turnover on downs. Who led this defensive masterpiece? I’m glad you asked because someone you know told you last week who to look out for. “Future NFL pick DE Jasheen Davis got to the QB and created lots of pressure last week which was great to see. He is a known commodity so the rest of the DL, specifically DTs, need to step up. NC A&T transfer LB Jacob Roberts is an absolute stud. I told you to buy stock in WR Wesley Grimes and RB Demond Claiborne previously and Roberts is next.” Jacob Roberts finished the game with 13 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 TFLs, and was awarded the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week. Jasheen Davis finished with 3 TFLs, 3 sacks, and a crucial fumble recovery that set up the game-winning TD late in the 4th quarter. The rest of the defense stepped up and ended the game with 10 total sacks, 12 TFLs, and 2 takeaways. Hat tip to second-year DC Brad Lambert who for at least a week, showed Wake can win games without having to score 50+ points.

As they say on the CFB podcast, The Solid Verbal, you have to win your clunkers, and boy howdy did Wake win their clunker. It’s easy to say now, but I’m glad Clawson stuck with Griffis through that absolutely miserable first half. He could’ve easily been benched for backup Michael Kern who is actually pretty good, but Clawson essentially said ‘welcome to the show kid’ and Griffis delivered. Wake is now leading the nation in total sacks which is a real sentence I just typed. The secondary is still a major concern once we get into ACC play and go against better WRs, but it’s impossible to discount the defensive performance even if it’s irrational to think it’s replicable on a weekly basis. A home game against an improved Georgia Tech precedes a bye week before we go into Death Valley. Go Deacs.

Texts of the Week

• “I love you so much but if Tennessee also loses I can’t trust you ever again (heart emoji)” - Michael Starr

• “The father of ballers is going to find you” - Alex Sztejenberg

• “Mykel you absolute rocket launcher of a man” - Jason Levenstiem

• “What is it (the newsletter) titled?” - Chas Faison. “4th & Forever” - Rand. “Like your love life!?” - Chas Faison

• “Tate make sure not to bury the lede on this week’s 4th & Forever: Is Texas Tech the greatest 1-2 team in modern CFB history?” - Bobby Hoane

Hope you have a great Monday and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through our good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We learn something new every weekend in college football and this weekend was no different. On Saturday we learned everyone sucks and everyone needs to be fired immediately. Alabama turned in the worst performance under Saban since they lost to ULM in 2007. Almost every other Top 10 team struggled one way or another, while Tennessee got annihilated in The Swamp by the Gators. College football always delivers and Week 3 was further proof of that. Without further ado, let’s get to it!

Does Everybody Suck?

We think it’s a fair question to ask! #1 Georgia looked somewhat pedestrian against South Carolina. #2 Michigan beat FBS bottom feeder Bowling Green 31-6, but the score was 7-6 well into the 2nd quarter and QB JJ McCarthy threw three interceptions. #3 Florida State survived a putrid Boston College team by two points (more below), while #4 Texas took a 10-10 tie into the 4th quarter against Wyoming. #6 Ohio State struggled out of the gate for the 3rd straight game, #10 Alabama looked horrible against USF, needing a touchdown with under a minute to play to make it 17-3 and seal the game, and #11 Tennessee lost by two touchdowns to a Florida team who might not make a bowl game. #15 Kansas State lost to Missouri too, but we’d primarily like to highlight the legendary ‘thicker kicker’ Harrison Mevis, who hit a 61-yard field goal as time expired to win the game.

Even in the next tiers of the sport we saw some bad football being played. Oklahoma State got smoked 33-7 by South Alabama despite South Al playing without a few of its best players, Pitt’s offense looked so atrocious for the second week in a row that West Virginia players literally said after the game, “we knew coming into the game, their quarterback wasn’t good at his job.” Arkansas lost at home to BYU, Vanderbilt lost to UNLV, and historic program Virginia Tech continues their journey through purgatory, losing by 19 to Rutgers. We think this is going to be a very exciting year of college football when it comes to the playoff race, but everybody looks pretty far from unbeatable right now. This might be a big year of upsets in college football, and we aren’t complaining.

The PAC-12 is still really good!

We’ve mentioned it before, but this final season of PAC-12 football might go down as the best ever. #8 Washington walked into East Lansing and hung 35 on the Mel Tucker-less Spartans, and that was just the halftime score. Cal, UCLA, Utah, and Washington State all handled their business against FCS opponents while Arizona, Oregon State, and Oregon didn’t mess around, comfortably beating UTEP, San Jose State, and Hawai’i respectively. #6 USC & Caleb Williams had the week off, while poor, poor Stanford lost 30-23 to Sacramento State. That’s a game you simply can’t lose especially if your new head coach Troy Taylor came from the school that just beat you. Stanford avoided the worst performance of the weekend thanks to Arizona State who lost 29-0 to Fresno State at home and turned the rock over a mere 8 times.

All Coasts Conference

The narrative coming out of Week 1 in the ACC was who would meet Florida State in Charlotte, but now, are we even sure the Seminoles will be there? That was an all-time clunker of a game for the Noles. A 31-29 survival against Boston College who has a loss to NIU and a survival of their own against Holy Cross on their resume is not what you want to see when you have to head to Death Valley in a week. This game might turn out to be an aberration in the grand scheme of things, but Boston College almost won this game while committing 18 penalties and throwing a pick. FSU QB Jordan Travis needs to get healthy and remember that WR Keon Coleman exists who ended the game with the same number of receiving yards as Rand & Tate had.

Elsewhere, Clemson took care of business against FAU 48-14 while QB Cade Klubnik protected the football and managed 4 TDs. We won’t read too much into a victory over FAU but good looks for the previously inept Clemson offense. North Carolina & Duke beat up on their BIG 10 opponents Minnesota & Northwestern, while N.C. State handled the mighty VMI Keydets (sorry Dad). 0-3 Virginia is doing a great job of proving they’re the worst team in Power 5 losing 42-14 to Maryland on Friday night, while Louisville nearly blew a 21-point lead to Indiana who is hot on UVA’s heels for the throne. The ACC race is wide open and we are going to learn a lot more this coming weekend.

Alright, let’s talk Colorado…

We have a website that we’re tracking engagement on now, so we need to talk about Colorado for the #algorithm purposes (Deion Sanders Colorado, Taylor Swift Travis Kelce, NFL rizzes up Livvy Dunne, #algorithm). We are having just as much fun watching Deion and this Colorado team as the next person, but my goodness, can some of this media coverage pump the brakes just a little? ESPN’s College GameDay & First Take, Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff, and even 60 Minutes went to Boulder to cover the game and do Deion features. With Colorado going into overtime against a 0-1 Mountain West team, color analyst Louis Riddick managed to say, and I quote, “He (Deion) has alchemized a moribund program and football consciousness and made it something special.” Dude what? We’re not saying he’s wrong, but gooooooodness gracious man, we’re jumping the shark a little bit here. The Buffs travel to Eugene to take on #10 Oregon next week, which will be Colorado’s first game against an actually good team. If Colorado pulls off a victory, we promise to publicly admit that Deion has alchemized our football consciousness.

Quick Hitters

We are intrigued by #14 LSU following the Tigers’ 41-14 victory over Mississippi State. MSU might be very bad, but LSU looks to be answering some of the questions that came up after their opening week loss to FSU, especially QB Jayden Daniels, who went 30-34 for 361 yards and 2 touchdowns, adding another 64 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Wide receiver Malik Nabers had an incredible day, catching 13 passes for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns. With Alabama continuing to look dreadful, this LSU team appears to still be the favorite to win the SEC West through 3 weeks. We’re keeping a close eye on LSU to see how this progresses.

#19 Oklahoma hasn’t played a very good team yet, but they are really starting to look underrated, thrashing Tulsa 66-17 on the road on Saturday. The Sooners look fast, physical, and like they have something to prove following a 6-7 season in head coach Brent Venables’ first year. We’re only a few weeks away from what could be an all-time Red River Rivalry game against #4 Texas, so we’re interested to see if Oklahoma continues to demolish inferior competition until then. Good stuff, Sooners.

Iowa State lost 10-7 to Ohio and head coach Matt Campbell had to be held back from a fan who said he was on the hot seat. Cincinnati lost 31-24 to in-state rival Miami (OH) for the first time since Big Ben was a rookie in the NFL. Miami (OH) was led by QB Brett Gabbert who is the younger brother of backup NFL QB legend Blaine Gabbert. JMU scored an impressive win at Troy and then the coaches decided to shit-talk the Troy student section which is always endorsed by us at 4th & Forever.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

 OnlyRans: Last week: 1-4 - Season Record: 10-11

Washington -16.5: W - beat Michigan State 41-7

Colorado -23.5: L - beat Colorado State 43-35 in 2OT

Tennessee -6.5: L - lost to Florida 29-16

Purdue ML: L - lost 35-20 to Syracuse

Central Michigan @ Notre Dame U 51.5: L - Notre Dame won 41-17

Good god, what was that? Did Tate rewrite my picks before we published them last Thursday? No, I actually picked all of those duds, had my worst week of the year, and dropped to below .500 for the first time this season. It was a great day to be the house as the three most bet spreads (Colorado, Kansas State, and Tennessee) all failed to cover. It was just one of those weekends in CFB.

Colorado is the greatest show on turf right now, but as I said last week, are you really going to enjoy putting money down against Colorado? Billy Napier & Florida played physical, ball-control football, essentially daring Tennessee & QB Joe Milton to beat them, which they weren’t able to. Conversely, Purdue decided ball security was optional by fumbling it 7 times, losing 4 of them, and throwing a pick just for good measure. Rough day for OnlyRans but it could be worse (see below).

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 1-3 - Season Record: 6-13

Washington -16.5: W - beat Michigan State 41-7

Tennessee -6.5: L - lost to Florida 29-16

Western Kentucky +29: L - lost to Ohio State 63-10

Georgia -27.5: W - beat South Carolina 24-14

Just a brutal year so far folks. Washington got me an easy W, but as has been the story all season, everything fell apart later in the day. I knew that Tennessee line looked like a trap, and as we discussed above, it turns out Tennessee sucks. I thought we had a really solid chance with Western Kentucky when the Hilltoppers scored and made it 14-10 halfway through the second quarter while Ohio State’s offense continued to look iffy, but Western Kentucky followed that up by turning the ball over on three straight possessions before halftime, and then seemingly quit in the 2nd half. The unexpected rain hurt us with Georgia who started playing extremely conservative for the entire first half, and then playing conservative again later in the game when we took a two-possession lead and the rain started really coming down.

To make matters even funnier, I sent a quick parlay pick I called the “ML Sprinkle Parlay” on Saturday morning to some friends. This parlay included underdog ML’s for Ohio, Missouri, and South Alabama. All three of those teams pulled off upsets, but because I am a complete doofus, I also threw in Dawgs -27.5 to get back some more $ on the parlay. Just ridiculous, I clearly suck at betting. Keep an eye out for my picks on Thursday - it may be time for me to start fading myself.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (3-0) - UGA 24 - South Carolina 14: As I was driving back home from Athens on Saturday, completely drenched from sitting in the rain for 3.5 hours, I knew I’d come in here to absolutely rip our coaching staff for the Dawgs’ dreadful first half performance against the Cocks. South Carolina opened the game with a really nice game script on their first drive, identifying where UGA’s DB’s were playing soft, getting the ball out of Rattler’s hands quickly, and taking a 7-0 lead on the first possession. Fine, we can live with that. But then the Dawgs’ offense took the field, and the shitshow started.

I have never seen this coaching staff so scared of messing up, so scared of the weather, so convinced that they could run the ball on 1st and 2nd down and then hit a quick little route to convert on 3rd down. The entire first half for the offense felt like we thought we could be as bland and vanilla as we were against UT Martin and Ball State, and still just cruise to victory. Our first drive ended in the redzone when, inevitably, we didn’t convert a 3rd down after running it up the gut on first and second, and had to settle for a field goal. Kirby and Bobo didn’t let Carson Beck take a single shot downfield in the first half, while Spencer Rattler and South Carolina were chucking up haymakers left and right, playing like they wanted to win. It was a really pathetic effort for the offense in the first half, and it was really starting to get a little concerning about how conservative - and untrusting of Beck - things had looked all season to that point.

But then the 2nd half started, and the staff seemed to come to their senses. Beck opened the half by throwing three straight completions on the first three plays, including a 36-yard throw over the top of South Carolina’s defense to Rara Thomas - the first downfield shot Beck had been allowed to take to that point. The Dawgs immediately looked like they were playing with urgency as soon as the second half started and very quickly took the lead back, which was great. But that urgency and effort made the approach in the first half even more inexcusable. This was a failure of a game by the staff, and they really need to tighten things up and start trusting Carson Beck to make throws, because we will find ourselves in a situation where we need him to.

As for a few things I did like on Saturday:

• It was awesome to see Daijun Edwards back in the backfield, he really carried us offensively, going for 118 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. We need him to stay healthy, and we need to start giving Dillon Bell more of the load at RB, too.

• Amarius Mims went down with a sprained ankle which is not great for the offensive line, but I actually thought the OL group stepped up when Xavier Truss slid over to Right Tackle to replace Mims. This OL has still been a bit of a disappointment so far this season, but Saturday was a step in the right direction in my opinion.

• Perimeter blocking, something Kirby’s UGA teams have prided themselves on, had been lackluster in the first couple of games, but I thought the receivers did a nice job getting physical and getting in front of defenders on Saturday. That will go a long way to help out a thin group of running backs this season.

• Mykel Williams is a freak, and 5-star freshman DL Jordan Hall is really starting to make an impact. Both of those guys, particularly Williams, started to really abuse South Carolina’s OL in the 2nd half and made things hard on Rattler. It’s very good to see the pass rush continue to improve game-by-game.

• Walk-on Mekhi Mews was the story of the first two weeks, and while he didn’t make much of an impact on Saturday, two other walk-ons did. Walk-on running back Cash Jones had a 13-yard touchdown to give the Dawgs a two-possession lead in the 4th quarter, and walk-on safety Dan Jackson followed that up by intercepting Rattler with 4:00 on the clock to essentially seal the game for Georgia. For all of the talk about how Kirby just simply has the best players in the country, this staff continues to develop the lower end of their roster into legitimate SEC players. Best player development in the country, and that was on display again on Saturday.

The first half was a joke, but I thought the Dawgs showed a lot of toughness, poise, and resilience in the 2nd half. But for the love of all things holy, can we please get off to faster starts? We get to tune things up against UAB next Saturday, and then we travel to Auburn for our first road test. This staff needs to get this thing rolling and start trusting Carson Beck to sling it early and often, or we may find ourselves in another 2022 Missouri game situation, and we don’t have Stetson Bennett to bail us out anymore.

Wake Forest (3-0): NEVER A DOUBT! As predicted, Wake waltzed into Norfolk, executed their offensive game plan to perfection, and had their starters on the bench by halftime after a stress-free afternoon. Back on planet Earth, Wake was down 17-0 at halftime and 24-7 in the third quarter but was able to come back and beat the Monarchs 27-24. It wasn’t pretty at all, but Clawson stuck with QB Mitch Griffis who led one of the worst halves of Wake Forest football I’ve seen since the mid-2010’s when our punter was breaking NCAA records for career number of punts.

My betting picks weren’t great but I’m certainly going to take my victory lap from my game preview in last Thursday’s newsletter. “Don’t underestimate the Monarchs as they’ve beaten Power 5 opponents in Norfolk before (namely Virginia Tech) and nearly pulled off a few more upsets. In past years, Wake has messed around with some Group of Five opponents and almost lost - see Tulane, @ App State, Utah State with Jordan Love, and Liberty last year. I’m confident but this is not Elon.” Uh, yeah not much left to say about that. It’s a miracle Wake hasn’t lost to one of these Group of 5 teams yet which means I’ll be on high alert when UConn comes to town and we go back to Michie Stadium and play Army next year where we famously won 70-56 a few years ago.

“This is also QB Mitch Griffis’ first start away from Winston-Salem…Mitch is going to need to make some throws and push the ball downfield.” In the first half, Griffis played like it was his first start in his life. The ineptitude was highlighted by an interception, an 80-yard strip-sack touchdown for the Monarchs, and only 110 yards of passing to 17 yards of rushing. “If the offense stays on schedule, balances the run & passing attacks, and doesn’t turn the ball over, we should be walking out of Norfolk with a comfortable dub even if ODU puts up points.” None of that happened for the Deacs who as mentioned, were down 17-0 heading into halftime. After opening the second half with a methodical 75-yard TD drive capped by a 27-yard TD to WR Taylor Morin, Griffis then threw a pick-6 to put the Monarchs up 24-7 in the middle of the third quarter.

Lost in this offensive malpractice, was that the Wake defense decided to play like the 85 Bears and completely suffocated the Monarchs. After letting ODU WR Javon Harvey go for 160+ yards on just 3 catches with a TD in the first half, he didn’t record a catch in the second. ODU’s second-half drives resulted in the following: 3-and-out, 3-and-out, punt, fumble, punt, turnover on downs. Who led this defensive masterpiece? I’m glad you asked because someone you know told you last week who to look out for. “Future NFL pick DE Jasheen Davis got to the QB and created lots of pressure last week which was great to see. He is a known commodity so the rest of the DL, specifically DTs, need to step up. NC A&T transfer LB Jacob Roberts is an absolute stud. I told you to buy stock in WR Wesley Grimes and RB Demond Claiborne previously and Roberts is next.” Jacob Roberts finished the game with 13 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 TFLs, and was awarded the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week. Jasheen Davis finished with 3 TFLs, 3 sacks, and a crucial fumble recovery that set up the game-winning TD late in the 4th quarter. The rest of the defense stepped up and ended the game with 10 total sacks, 12 TFLs, and 2 takeaways. Hat tip to second-year DC Brad Lambert who for at least a week, showed Wake can win games without having to score 50+ points.

As they say on the CFB podcast, The Solid Verbal, you have to win your clunkers, and boy howdy did Wake win their clunker. It’s easy to say now, but I’m glad Clawson stuck with Griffis through that absolutely miserable first half. He could’ve easily been benched for backup Michael Kern who is actually pretty good, but Clawson essentially said ‘welcome to the show kid’ and Griffis delivered. Wake is now leading the nation in total sacks which is a real sentence I just typed. The secondary is still a major concern once we get into ACC play and go against better WRs, but it’s impossible to discount the defensive performance even if it’s irrational to think it’s replicable on a weekly basis. A home game against an improved Georgia Tech precedes a bye week before we go into Death Valley. Go Deacs.

Texts of the Week

“I love you so much but if Tennessee also loses I can’t trust you ever again (heart emoji)” - Michael Starr

“The father of ballers is going to find you” - Alex Sztejenberg

“Mykel you absolute rocket launcher of a man” - Jason Levenstiem

“What is it (the newsletter) titled?” - Chas Faison. “4th & Forever” - Rand. “Like your love life!?” - Chas Faison

“Tate make sure not to bury the lede on this week’s 4th & Forever: Is Texas Tech the greatest 1-2 team in modern CFB history?” - Bobby Hoane

Hope you have a great Monday and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through our good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.