Week 3 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. On paper, this Week 3 slate of games looks incredibly underwhelming (spoiler: Week 4 is an absolute banger) but this is college football and we are personally guaranteeing at least one massive upset. Eight Top 25 teams are going on the road against unranked opponents with another four ranked teams playing host to Power 5 opponents. There is a litany of other interesting matchups once you peel back the CFB onion, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

5 Week 3 Games to Watch

#11 Tennessee (2-0) @ Florida (1-1): Tennessee -6.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

One of the greatest college football rivalries of the 1990’s, this game has lost a little bit of its luster in recent decades. But these two teams really do not like each other, the better team is on the road, and this one has possible College Football Playoff implications. Florida looked dreadful in their Week 1 game against Utah, but Tennessee struggled offensively last week against Austin Peay and held a players-only meeting afterward. We wouldn’t buy too much into the Tennessee concerns (at least not yet), but Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton has done little to alleviate the concerns about his accuracy thus far, and Vegas having this line at less than a touchdown definitely made us raise an eyebrow. This game will go a long way in determining what Tennessee really is this season and could catapult the view of Florida Head Coach Billy Napier in either direction. This is definitely a game to watch on Saturday.

Pittsburgh (1-1) @ West Virginia (1-1): West Virginia -1.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

This game might be ugly to watch, but the Backyard Brawl is one of the best rivalries in the sport. These two schools and football programs really, really don’t like each other, and this was one of the most exciting games of 2022. Pitt is coming off a brutal loss to Cincinnati, where Pitt QB Phil Jurkovec went 10-32 (!!), while WVU coach Neal Brown has been solidly on the hot seat since last season. Like we said, this one might be ugly - but we might also get a literal brawl here, so we’ll be keeping an eye on this rivalry game.

#8 Washington (2-0) @ Michigan State (2-0): Washington -16.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 5:00pm ET Peacock

We’ll touch on the issues with Michigan State and their Head Coach Mel Tucker a bit below, but this could be one of the more fun games of the weekend. We imagine that many of you have not gotten the chance to watch much of Washington so far this season, and we are here to recommend that you do. USC has gotten a lot of love and predictions to make the playoff, but Washington is right on their heels as the best team in the PAC-12. Led by QB Michael Pennix Jr. and their three future NFL WRs, the Huskies offense is absolutely electric to watch.

#15 Kansas State (2-0) @ Missouri (2-0): Kansas State -4, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET SECN

Texas and Oklahoma are back to dominating the conversation in the Big 12, and that is exactly where reigning Big 12 champion Kansas State would like the conversation to be. The Wildcats return starting QB Will Howard and 6 other starters on offense from last year, and this team is always salty on defense. They blew out a Troy team that won 12 games in 2022 42-13 in Week 2, and frankly look like they’re once again the dark horse of the conference.

However, they have to travel to a solid SEC team’s stadium and be ready to play at 11:00am local time. Missouri has been a bit hard to figure out so far, and everything that we do know about these teams makes the line only being at 4 points pretty intriguing. If none of this interests you, then watch this game only because Luther Burden III - one of college football’s most electric players - will be playing in it.

#7 Penn State (2-0) @ Illinois (1-1): Penn State -14.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

We’re about to start hearing a lot about the BIG 10 East race between #2 Michigan, #6 Ohio State, and #7 Penn State very soon. This will be the first real test for a Penn State team that many expect to compete for a playoff spot. Human-Boar hybrid and Illinois Head Coach Bret Bielma has made the Fighting Illini a tough team to beat the past two seasons and this game is in Champaign, so we think we may learn a lot about how ready Penn State truly is this weekend.

3 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

Western Kentucky (2-0) @ #6 Ohio State (2-0): OSU -29, O/U 64 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FOX

Tate will touch on this game when he provides his picks down below, but we have a few reasons to believe Western Kentucky might be able to make Ohio State sweat a little more than you might expect. Keep an eye on this one and the best QB you never heard of Austin Reed who replaced Bailey Zappe at WKU.

#14 LSU (1-1) @ Mississippi State (2-0): LSU -9.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

We all watched LSU get absolutely smoked by FSU in the 2nd half two weeks ago, and all of the talk around this LSU program since then has not been super positive, with rumors of some turmoil in the locker room and some highly talented players seemingly in the doghouse due to their attitudes. Mississippi State might be a tough out this season, so it will be interesting to see if LSU looks like they are still one of the best teams in the country, or if things are about to fly off the rails in Baton Rouge.

#17 Ole Miss (2-0) @ Georgia Tech (1-1): Ole Miss -18.5, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET SECN

Ole Miss is probably the most injured team in the country through two weeks, but QB Jaxson Dart is starting to look like a guy who can go into Tuscaloosa and give Alabama a run for their money next week (good lord, literally all the good games are next week). This is a good chance to get your eyes on an exciting Ole Miss team ahead of next week’s huge matchup.

Off the Field - Michigan State

Mel, Mel, Mel, what do we have here? Answer: a $77 million mess that you only made worse by talking. Quick background: Michigan State Head Coach Mel Tucker was suspended earlier this week after reports surfaced he sexually harassed Brenda Tracy who runs a sexual assault awareness nonprofit and shares her survivor story with football teams across the country. She was the honorary captain for the MSU spring game earlier this year and spoke to the football team in 2021. Tucker signed a 10-year $95 million dollar fully guaranteed contract in 2021 after Wake Forest transfer RB Kenneth Walker III led the team to an 11-2 record.

The allegations revolve around a phone call the two had back in April which was uhhhhhh we’ll let you read the details. Tucker is set to have a Title IX hearing in early October to determine if he violated his contract by engaging “in any conduct which constitutes moral turpitude or, which in the university’s reasonable judgment, would tend to bring public disrespect, contempt or ridicule.” If it’s determined he did, then he will be fired for cause and Michigan State will not owe him the remaining $77 million. Go read that contract verbiage again and you can see why Mel is likely going to be in Cabo come Halloween.

Now, there’s a public ‘he said she said’ going on between Tracy & Tucker. Tucker (who is married) released a statement calling the allegations a “sham” and that the phone call was “an entirely mutual, private event between two adults living at opposite ends of the country.” Not much of a denial there bud. Tucker also said there may be underlying motivations by Tracy and Michigan State to attack his character and terminate his contract. We don’t know Brenda Tracy’s motivations or lack thereof, but we do know this is the last thing any school wants to go through, especially Michigan State which had its President and Athletic Director resign following the Larry Nassar scandal. The jury - no pun intended - is still out on whether Tucker is worth almost $100 mil much less a good coach. He followed up his 11-2 first year with a 5-7 clunker and now has to watch his former starting QB Payton Thorne start for Auburn and best WR Keon Coleman literally hurdle dudes at Florida State. After Washington comes to East Lansing this weekend and likely shells this team, it’s not ideal given the circumstances but may be best for both parties to start fresh heading into next year where coincidentally Washington along with Oregon, USC, and UCLA come to the BIG 10.

Off the Field - UNC

Mack is Back! Whining to the media again, not delivering championships like he said he would when he came back to North Carolina. UNC and the NCAA are in a PR war right now over a transfer wide receiver Tez Walker’s eligibility. Quick backstory again: Tez Walker signed with ETSU out of high school in 2019 but never enrolled because of an injury, transferred to NC Central in 2020 but they canceled their season because of COVID, transferred to Kent State and finally played from 2021-2022 where he turned into a stud, then transferred back home to UNC this past offseason. Per NCAA guidelines you need a waiver approved to play at two schools without sitting a year. His waiver was rejected right before the season and the appeal was denied again last week.

After the appeal was denied, Head Coach Mack Brown, Athletic Director Bubba Cunningham, and Chancellor Kevin Guskiewicz all released statements expressing their extreme disappointment with the NCAA which is par for the course in these situations except Mack was pretty emotional saying he “lost all faith in [the NCAA’s] ability to lead and govern our sport. … Shame on you, NCAA. SHAME ON YOU!” On Tuesday, the NCAA had to release their own statement saying committee members were threatened by fans and they were ‘troubled’ by UNC’s public statements. Walker’s case is pretty compelling but the NCAA is notoriously inconsistent in these waivers and enforcing guidelines in general. We at 4th & Forever think he should play and really anyone trying to get a second transfer waiver should but rules are the rules…unless you’re UNC.

Blah blah blah there’s the backstory but the hypocrisy spewing out of Chapel Hill is probably making LIV Golf, we mean, PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan’s heart warm. Mack Brown has been championing guardrails for the transfer portal & NIL for years. Just last year in an interview with ESPN he said there’s “too much freedom” in regard to transfer rules. That’s a very convenient thing to say Mack but it contradicts your statement that “the NCAA is about process...” You know who tells the NCAA what processes to enforce? Division 1 conferences - all 32 of whom including the ACC asked the NCAA to enforce specifically relating to tighter guidelines on the 2nd time waiver. You know who else publicly supported tighter guidelines…Mack Brown. Can’t have your cake & eat it too.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (2-0): It’s South Carolina hate week, folks, so let’s start off with some fun facts: South Carolina has never won the SEC. South Carolina has won the SEC East one time and lost the championship game by 40. South Carolina’s most successful coach in school history hardly mentions his tenure there at all and prefers spending his time at a division rival’s games. Columbia, South Carolina was voted the worst place in America in 2021. South Carolina has the most delusional fanbase in all of America in spite of all of this. It’s time to start hating, people.

Anyway… we finally get to play a real game! The Dawgs may be favored by four touchdowns, but it’s an SEC game at 3:30pm on CBS - we’ll take what we can get. Some Georgia fans have already begun to question Mike Bobo despite the Dawgs cruising to 48 and 45 points in their first two games respectively, but even I will admit that things have been bland. The Dawgs have treated their first two games like NFL Preseason games, showing no real creativity in getting their playmakers the ball, no real consistent downfield shots, and really nothing that one would consider “opening up the playbook.” I’d advise all Georgia fans to go look at how absolutely bland we were under Monken when playing lower-level competition, but let’s be honest, I’m not going to be the one to stop the Bobo hate train.

With all of that said, I will admit that the Dawgs’ offense needs to be impressive on Saturday if we are to expect this team to 3-peat. If we can’t find ways to get Dominic Lovett and Arian Smith in one-on-one matchups, if the offensive line continues to struggle in the run game, if we can’t find ways to get Brock Bowers the ball whenever we want to, etc… I will be a bit concerned. After two glorified G Day scrimmages, this is the week we will get to see who we are offensively.

On defense, it sounds like Javon Bullard will be out this weekend, and there are a couple of bones in my body that are worried that Spencer Rattler might go nut nut. Lost in the craziness of South Carolina’s week 1 loss to UNC was Spencer Rattler’s performance - he played remarkably well despite running for his life the entire game, getting sacked 9 times, and losing his best receiver (Juice Wells, who is good to go on Saturday) early in that game. Rattler followed that up with another great performance last week (albeit against Furman) and really seems to have turned the corner as a quarterback.

But South Carolina’s offensive line remains a f**king disaster, and that is realllllyyyy not the position you want to be in when you travel to Athens to play the best defense in college football. I want to see the Dawgs all over his ass early and often, and I expect them to be. Rattler may have some magic up his sleeve and may make some plays, but I think the Dawgs are going to overwhelm South Carolina’s offense as the game goes on and turn this thing into a blowout in the 2nd half.

Score prediction: Dawgs cover, 45-7 (and Mekhi Mews scores another long touchdown)

Wake Forest (2-0): The Deacs go on the road to play Old Dominion (Noon ET on ESPN2) who is 1-1 after a loss at Virginia Tech and an impressive home win against Louisiana last week. ODU operates an up-tempo offense much like Wake’s so this game is going to play fast. Don’t underestimate the Monarchs as they’ve beaten Power 5 opponents in Norfolk before (namely Virginia Tech) and nearly pulled off a few more upsets. In past years, Wake has messed around with some Group of Five opponents and almost lost - see Tulane, @ App State, Utah State with Jordan Love, and Liberty last year. I’m confident but this is not Elon.

This is also QB Mitch Griffis’ first start away from Winston-Salem. Small sample size but Wake is leading the nation in terms of spreading the balls to their receivers which speaks to the depth we have there. The running game stole the show last week with 280+ yards on the ground but Mitch is going to need to make some throws and push the ball downfield. Starting RB Justice Ellison should be back this week after missing last week with a concussion. At the end of the day, launching a jump ball to WR Jahmal Banks isn’t a bad offensive gameplan as he’s almost unguardable on end zone fade routes. If the offense stays on schedule, balances the run & passing attacks, and doesn’t turn the ball over, we should be walking out of Norfolk with a comfortable dub even if ODU puts up points.

Speaking of, the defense played extremely well last week which is not something we’ve been able to say much in the past few years. Future NFL pick DE Jasheen Davis got to the QB and created lots of pressure last week which was great to see. He is a known commodity so the rest of the DL, specifically DTs, need to step up. NC A&T transfer LB Jacob Roberts is an absolute stud. I told you to buy stock in WR Wesley Grimes and RB Demond Claiborne previously and Roberts is next. Team captain and starting LB Chase Jones hasn’t played yet this year with an injury and may be back this week but Roberts has filled in admirably. Our corners are still unproven but against very good WRs last week we wrapped up and had great closing speed. S Malik Mustapha - who had the pick before the rain delay last week - is a heat-seeking missile and will end up on SC Top 10 before the end of the year with how hard he will hit a dude. Let’s get a win and stay healthy before ACC play starts next week.

Tate’s Great Picks (5-10)

#8 Washington (2-0) @ Michigan State (2-0): Washington -16.5 O/U 57.5 - Saturday 5:00pm ET Peacock

Pick - Washington -16.5: I really, truly think this one might get really bad. Washington is already way better than Michigan State and has arguably the best offense in college football at the moment, and as we discussed above, Michigan State will be without their head coach. I’m done telling you guys to “hammer” things for the time being, but if I was ever going to, this would be the one.

#11 Tennessee (2-0) @ Florida (1-1): Tennessee -6.5 O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Tennessee -6.5: Sometimes this sport throws a line at you that makes you question everything you thought you knew - about college football, about yourself, about the meaning of life itself. This line right here makes absolutely no sense to me. I understand it’s on the road, I understand Florida’s defense isn’t all that bad, and I understand that Tennessee played a little bit of a stinker against Austin Peay. But did anyone in Vegas watch this Florida team against Utah? The offensive line looked horrible, the team looked wildly undisciplined and unprepared, the quarterback has sucked for literal years, and there are no good receivers. I understand this line looks like a bit of a trap, but this is a borderline top 10 team playing against a team who won’t make a bowl game. Considering Florida has hardly shown even a glimpse of being a good football team, I’ll be all over the Vols here.

Western Kentucky (2-0) @ #6 Ohio State (2-0): Ohio State -29 O/U 64 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Western Kentucky +29: Even if we thought there might be a bit of a setback after losing CJ Stroud to the NFL, Ohio State’s offense has looked surprisingly unimpressive thus far in 2023. QB Kyle McCord hasn’t been able to find his rhythm yet, and Ohio State has struggled to run the ball for long stretches at a time during their first two games. Western Kentucky has had one of the most explosive offenses in college football for the past several seasons under head coach Tyson Helton. I’m not claiming WKU pulls off the upset, but I bet the Hilltoppers hang around and make the Buckeyes work for it in this one.

South Carolina (1-1) @ #1 Georgia (2-0): Georgia -27.5 O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Pick: Georgia -27.5: I talked about this game above, so I won’t waste too much of your time here. Bottom line: I expect Georgia’s offense to attack a defense that lacks depth from the start of the game to the end of the game, and I expect South Carolina’s offensive line to get turned into mush by Georgia’s front 7. Dawgs cover.

OnlyRans (9-7)

#8 Washington (2-0) @ Michigan State (2-0): Washington -16.5 O/U 55.5 - Saturday 5:00pm ET Peacock

Pick - Washington -16.5: Enough inked has been spilled writing about this game and the issues with Michigan State on & off the field so yeah…take Washington to cover.

Colorado State (0-1) @ #18 Colorado (2-0): Colorado -23.5 O/U 61 - Saturday 10:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Colorado -23.5: Folsom Field will be the epicenter of college football yet again with Big Noon Kickoff and College Gameday onsite for this rivalry game. I really don’t care that the line is this high, but ride the Colorado wave, it’s more fun this way. Colorado State’s defense isn’t anything special and their offense is worse. CSU played Washington State which also has a dynamic QB in Cam Ward and lost 50-24 in Week 1.

#8 Tennessee (2-0) @ Florida (1-1): Tennessee -6.5 O/U 58.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Tennessee -6.5: Tate touched on this above - I’m a little less confident - but even with this being a rivalry game, Tennessee is on the road, and QB Joe Milton is still relatively unproven, the fact this is under a TD entices me.

Syracuse (2-0) @ Purdue (1-1): Syracuse -2.5 O/U 57.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Purdue ML: After 3 straight picks of favorites to cover, how about a money line upset? Purdue lost to a decent Fresno State team in Week 1 and went into Lane Stadium and beat the Hokies 24-17 after a 6-hour rain delay. I think they’re coming into form with new head coach Ryan Walters and I like them to beat Syracuse who usually doesn’t play well outside of their stupid little dome. Also, would you really enjoy putting money on Syracuse? Boiler Up Baby.

Central Michigan (1-1) @ #9 Notre Dame (3-0): Notre Dame -34.5 O/U 51.5 - Saturday 2:30pm ET Peacock

Pick - U 51.5: This is a pure look-ahead game pick. Notre Dame will romp the Chippewas & sharkboy head coach Jim McElwain (google the photo yourself) but with the blockbuster matchup against Ohio State looming next weekend, QB Sam Hartman and the starters won’t play any longer than they have to to which ND will sit on the ball and drain the clock.

Where in the World Are We?

Tate is finally getting off his lazy ass and heading up to Athens to watch the Dawgs and celebrate his birthday on Saturday. He will be walking around town targeting 8-12 year old South Carolina fans to bark at both before and after the game, and he is setting the O/U at making 2.5 South Carolina children cry.

There’s Bryant-Denny Stadium, The Big House, The Swamp, and right behind those three CFB stadium pillars is the historic, indomitable, Kornblau Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium where Rand will be taking in the Wake - ODU game.

Hope you have a great weekend and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through our good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.