Week 2 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. You know as well as anyone, there’s nothing we enjoy talking about more than College Football, which is why we started this newsletter and want to share our thoughts and opinions with you. You can expect game previews & recaps, betting picks, updates on CFB current events, and other random stuff we find enjoyable.

Folks, we’ve got some bangers this week. Seven AP Top 25 teams go on the road and even though there are only two ranked v ranked matchups this week, one might be the biggest game in CFB this year. As we saw in Week 1, not only can anything happen in this sport, but the most unexpected results often happen when you least expect them. We knew LSU/FSU would be good, but did you expect LSU to spiral out of control and have their whole season thrown into question? Did you expect to see a bunch of Duke nerds (Jack Zucker) storm the field after beating the hell out of #9 Clemson? Colorado beating TCU? Wyoming beating #24 Texas Tech? The point is, this week may look boring on paper, but they hardly ever turn out that way in college football. That’s why we write. So without further ado, let’s get to it.

5 Week 2 Games to Watch

#11 Texas @ #3 Alabama: Bama -7, O/U 54 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Ohhhhh yeah baby. This is the game of the year right here. Texas is looking to prove that they’re back, and Alabama is looking to prove that they’re still here. We can’t imagine that you really need us to get you hyped up for this one, so here are three keys to the game.

1. For Alabama, pressure Ewers. For Texas, protect Ewers. Last week, Texas had some early trouble with some of the looks that Rice’s defensive front was showing them, and former 5-star (and literally the highest-rated high school QB of all time) Quinn Ewers started feeling pressure that sometimes wasn’t even there, bailing on the pocket a bit too early. A lot of people around the sport are hyping up this Alabama defense as the best in college football - if Alabama can get home with 4-5 pass rushers on a consistent basis, they may run away with this one. But that is a big “if”. Texas’ left tackle Kelvin Banks is a future first-round pick and one of Tate’s favorite players in the country, but the Texas OL as a group will need to be ready to roll in this one. Their performance will play a massive role in this game

2. For Alabama, get out of man coverage, or have your safeties ready to help your corners. For Texas, scheme your receivers open. There’s no getting around it, these Texas receivers are legit. Xavier Worthy and UGA transfer AD Mitchell are going to have long NFL careers, and #3 receiver Isaiah Neyor probably will too - not to mention 5-star receiver Johntay Cook. These guys will DESTROY corners who are left alone. Alabama’s defensive backfield needs to be extremely prepared in this one, especially when you consider that Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is arguably the best in college football at creating favorable matchups for his receivers and that Alabama’s secondary struggled massively when presented with matchup problems last year (see: Tennessee game) Look for Texas to take some shots down the field - they’ll need to hit them.

3. For Alabama, keep Jalen Milroe on schedule and out of 3rd and longs - or 4th and Forever’s ;) For Texas, put Milroe in passing situations. Dollar Store Lamar Jackson - Jalen Milroe - is absolutely electric when he tucks the ball and runs, but he is still very unproven as a passer. So as you might assume, Bama will need to keep Milroe out of situations where he is forced to sit and the pocket and throw it.

Rand’s Score Prediction: 28-24 Bama

Tate’s Score Prediction: 26-20 Texas

#10 Notre Dame @ N.C. State: ND -7.5, O/U 51 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Sam Hartman & The Golden Domers first real test of the season comes as they travel to Raleigh to face the Woof-pack. Notre Dame last visited the second-worst city in North Carolina (behind Greensboro) back in 2016 where they played in a literal hurricane. This matchup will come down to Notre Dame’s offense v State’s defense. Hartman and the offense have looked understandably stout after waxing Navy & Tennessee State the past two weeks but it’s difficult to gauge just how good they are. State’s defense is led by senior linebacker Payton Wilson but gave up some big, explosive plays in their win against UConn last week.

Carter-Finley is a very difficult place to play but with a noon kickoff, the home-field advantage loses its luster a little. Hartman has played against DC Tony Gibson and this defense 3 times in his career (1-2) but we don’t talk about the two losses for emotional reasons. Notre Dame's stable of running backs and a veteran offensive line should be able to keep the defense honest to open up 1-1 matchups on the outside which Hartman excels at exploiting. Add in the fact Notre Dame has won their last 28 regular season games against ACC opponents and State hasn’t won a big game since the Magna Carta was signed, we like the Domers to roll.

#23 Texas A&M @ Miami (FL): TAMU -4.5, O/U 51 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Tate will get into actual expectations of how the game will play out in his picks section below, but the real story is the wrath of hell the losing coach will receive from his fanbase after the game. It’s impossible to flatten College Station, TX more than it already is but we are scared of what the TAMU boosters and fans will do to the city and head coach Jimbo Fisher if they lose. Texas A&M needs to win this game. They b(r)ought Jimbo Fisher over from Florida State because of his ‘offensive playcalling abilities’ and his theoretical ability to develop quarterbacks. We think Jameis Winston was actually just really good and Jimbo just let him ball but we digress. Neither one of those has happened during his tenure at TAMU and they are not paying him $100 mil to go 5-7. Jimbo brought in offensive whiz but soulless hospital patient Bobby Petrino to run the offense. We are skeptical this forced marriage will work but nonetheless infatuated with the dynamic.

You know who also has to win this game? Miami. After prying hometown hero Mario Cristobal out of Oregon for a mere $80 mil, he showed his gratitude by going 5-7 with a loss to Middle Tennessee State and being eviscerated by every other team with a pulse. He’s been recruiting at an unbelievable level but has done little to dispel the notion he can’t actually coach. Miami and third-year QB Tyler Van Dyke need to show signs of life as scoring 9 points again like they did in the loss to TAMU last year will not quiet the concerns if Cristobal is up for the challenge of bringing The U back.

#20 Ole Miss @ #24 Tulane: Ole Miss -7.5, O/U 67 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

Well, this one is going to be fun! Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss teams have notoriously been a thrill to watch offensively (in a good way) and a thrill to watch defensively (in a bad way). Ole Miss QB Jaxon Dart is in his 2nd year with the program and is looking way more comfortable in the offense than he did last year, throwing FOUR touchdowns to WR Tre Harris last week in a 73-7 win over Mercer. Running back Quinshon Judkins is the best running back in college football and a legitimate Heisman candidate. Tulane, on the other hand, has one of the best offenses in the Group of Five headed by QB Michael Pratt - a legitimate high-ish NFL draft pick (for you NFL people out there). Pratt led Tulane to an incredible season last year that was capped by a Cotton Bowl win over Heisman winner Caleb Williams, and played ridiculously well last week against a really good South Alabama team in Week 1. This one should be high-scoring, fun, and could provide some serious hype for whichever team pulls out the win. We will be locked into this one.

Nebraska @ #22 Colorado: Colorado -3, O/U 59.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Harry Potter-length books have been written on what Deion Sanders & company did last week in their win against TCU so we won’t bore you with that. Instead, how about some fun facts? There is more money on the Colorado spread this week than any of the Week 1 NFL games. It’s likely this game will become the most (legally) bet on regular season CFB game in history. One of the most popular prop bets this week is a Travis Hunter anytime TD. Guess who didn’t even score a touchdown last weekend? The get-in price for this game nearly doubled to $476 after Colorado beat TCU which would make it the most expensive Colorado game of all time and the fifth most expensive regular season college football game ever. Colorado is breaking the spacetime continuum in CFB and no one knows how to react. We’re going watch this game, you’re going to watch this game, a buffalo will sprint around the field, and it will be entertaining as hell.

6 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

Purdue @ Virginia Tech - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN2

Two random Power 5 schools playing each other at Lane Stadium? Yes, please

Iowa @ Iowa State - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

O/U is 36.5 + a vicious rivalry game + Trump will be there = madhouse

App State @ #17 UNC - Saturday 5:15pm ET ACCN

UNC beat App State in Boone 63-61 last year but lost at home in 2019

SMU @ #18 Oklahoma - Saturday 6:00pm ET ESPN+

Expect lots and lots and lots of points here

#19 Wisconsin @ Washington State - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Upset potential here as a solid BIG 10 team heads into the abyss of Pullman, WA

Oklahoma State @ Arizona State - Saturday 10:30pm ET FS1

A late night option as two teams with ugly colors have a lot to prove in this one

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (1-0): Georgia enters Week 2 as 42-point favorites against Ball State. The Dawgs were originally supposed to travel to Norman to take on #18 Oklahoma this week, but that game was canceled by the SEC following Oklahoma and Texas’ announcement that they would be joining the SEC. If you are wondering why Texas is still playing Alabama this weekend, it is because this weekend’s game in Tuscaloosa is the end of the two-year home-and-home series between the schools, while Oklahoma’s return trip to Athens was to take place in 2031, when Oklahoma will obviously be an SEC member. So instead of taking a road trip to see a rematch of one of college football’s all-time great games, we get Ball State at noon. LET’S F**KING GOOOOOO!!!

Ball State is coming off of a 30-point loss at Kentucky in Week 1 and was picked to finish 5th in the West division of the MAC last year. Simply put, this is going to be yet another glorified scrimmage for Georgia, and the coaching staff will be using this game as an opportunity to get better. So instead of wasting everyone’s time breaking down this certain blowout, here are five things I’ll be looking for from Georgia following the week 1 win against UT Martin:

1. The offensive line needs to come out with a fire under their ass in this game. This unit has been arguably the best in college football for each of the past two seasons and returns a ton of talent and experience, but they got off to a very slow start to begin last week’s game and had a disappointing performance overall. All 5 starters on this group will get drafted to the NFL, so they damn sure better start playing like it. I am looking for the OL to come out with something to prove this week, even if it is just Ball State.

2. Carson Beck needs to figure out how to be in a rhythm when the 1st quarter starts, rather than having to settle into a game before he gets comfortable. This has apparently been a bit of a sticking point through fall camp scrimmages and practices, and it seemed to be the case last week as well. I don’t think there is any cause for concern yet, and Beck himself admitted that he had some nerves about starting his first-ever college football game. But if Beck and the offense don’t come out ready to go in the first quarter on Saturday, the fanbase might start to get a little antsy.

3. The defensive line settled in pretty nicely as the game went on last week, but it wasn’t perfect. The Dawgs gave up 134 rushing yards against UT Martin last week, and while a good chunk of that came in the 4th quarter against Georgia’s reserves, that stat does not meet the standard that Georgia’s defensive line has set for itself over the past two seasons. Georgia fans have gotten used to the defensive line being an absolute brick wall, and Ball State had almost no success running on Kentucky last week. Much like the offensive line, I expect the DL to play with a chip on their shoulder this weekend.

4. The young pass rushers on Georgia’s roster have an opportunity this weekend (and for the next few weeks considering the schedule) to really break out. Kirby admitted that the defense didn’t meet their havoc rate goals in week 1 and that he is looking for somebody to step up at the EDGE spots. The room is filled with freakish talent, including former 5-star Marvin Jones Jr., a true sophomore, and true freshmen Damon Harris and Samuel M’Pemba. The light September schedule should allow these guys to get comfortable and start to shine, and I’ll be looking to see if they can get that started this week.

5. HEALTH! Let’s get healthy and stay healthy. While WR Ladd McConkey will likely be out again this week, the Dawgs should continue to get healthier with RB Daijun Edwards returning, and RBs Kendall Milton and Andrew Paul hopefully being closer to 100% as they recover from injuries. Defensively, potential All-American linebacker Smael Mondon only played 6 snaps in Week 1 but looks to be good to go this Saturday. Elite true freshman ILB Raylen Wilson (side note: this guy is a future first-rounder) is out of his boot after a leg injury in fall camp, and it looks like he may be available this weekend. It’s great to see these guys getting closer to 100%, but it’ll be even more important for them to stay that way.

Wake Forest (1-0): As the old saying goes, “There’s no tougher college football environment than Allegacy Stadium, especially at 11 in the morning” and my unbiased opinion concurs with that statement. Wake kicks off Week 2 hosting 2-0 Vanderbilt on the ACC Network where the Deacs are favored by 10 points.

Vanderbilt eeked out a win against Hawaii in Week 0 35-28 but gave up 351 yards through the air. Last week they beat Alabama A&M 47-13 but were only up 12-3 at halftime and let A&M hang around until the 4th quarter. Vanderbilt wants to spread the field and chuck the ball all over the place even if it’s not particularly effective. QB AJ Swann has been average and the running back by committee approach has been inconsistent. WR Will Shepard is a name to watch with 4 TDs already but their WR2 Jayden McGowan has been dealing with some hamstring issues. Vanderbilt was supposed to take a jump this year under former player and third-year head coach Clark Lea but we haven’t seen that come to fruition through two games. This is also a quasi-homecoming game for Lea who was the LB coach under Clawson a few years back. Their defense has been porous, especially at the cornerback position. I am expecting a lot of points in this one, particularly for Wake, with the O/U set at 56 for those interested.

For Wake, our receivers are leaps and bounds better than their CBs. Vandy’s defensive line has been banged up and has struggled to create pressure in the backfield. QB Mitch Griffis needs to have a quicker internal clock but launching it downfield to WRs Wesley Grimes & Jahmal Banks should prove to be a fruitful exercise. I want to see the run game establish an identity with Justice Ellison & Demond Claiborne to take pressure off the passing game. Vanderbilt will score some points, but as long as the defense plays disciplined and without a bunch of drive-extending penalties, I don’t think Vanderbilt can stop Wake’s offense enough in this game. Deacs by a million.

Tate’s Great Picks (4-6)

#20 Ole Miss @ #24 Tulane: Ole Miss -7.5, O/U 67 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

Pick - Ole Miss -7.5, O 67: Please don’t get me wrong here, I am a huge Tulane believer these days. Head Coach Willie Fritz is one of the best coaches in the sport, and Michael Pratt is without a doubt one of the most fun players to watch these days. But this Ole Miss team is scary offensively, and I don’t see Tulane’s athletes on defense being able to keep up. Ole Miss will cover, but as I said above, Michael Pratt and this Tulane offense is the real deal. I expect this one to fly over the over.

Stanford @ #6 USC: USC -29.5 O/U 69.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - O 69.5: We’ve talked about these things a few times here on 4th & Forever: Caleb Williams and the USC offense are absolutely nasty, and USC’s defense is absolutely garbage. Sometimes, that’s all you need to say. Score prediction: USC 56 - Stanford 21.

Texas A&M @ Miami: Texas A&M -4.5, O/U 51 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Pick - Texas A&M -4.5: Hammer, and I do mean HAMMER, this. Texas A&M has one of the most talented rosters in the country, the offense seems remarkably improved under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, and one of last year’s five A&M wins came against this Miami team. In Week 1, Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke continued to look like he did in 2022, throwing into horrible reads even after correctly checking into good looks. Despite having an elite, NFL-caliber arm, he just doesn’t have the eyes to play quarterback at this level at this time. A&M’s defense is going to chew him up and spit him out - hammer A&M.

UConn @ Georgia State: Georgia State -3 O/U 54.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN+

Pick - UConn ML: It pains me to do this as a supporter of all things Atlanta, but this team just looks really bad right now, and head coach Shawn Elliot is firmly on the hot seat. As Rand will mention below, Georgia State snuck out a victory against Rhode Island last week, while UConn head coach and Atlanta Falcons legend Jim Mora seems to improve his team every single game they play. UConn played NC State tough last week, and GA State’s defense is hot garbage. It makes me feel icky, but I’m on the Huskies here.

OnlyRans (6-4)

#12 Utah @ Baylor: Utah -7.5 O/U 47 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Utah -7.5 & U 47: I am very curious why the spread is only 7.5 points after Baylor lost to Texas State at home last week as 30-point favorites, Baylor’s starting QB Blake Shapen is out with an MCL injury, and Utah suffocated Florida 24-11 last Thursday night meaning they have had a week and a half to prep. Vegas knows something I don’t but that won’t stop me from riding the Utes in the game!

I also like the under in this game. Even if Utes QB Cam Rising and star TE Brant Kuithe play, Utah is likely to run the ball down Baylor’s gullet to control the clock and protect Rising. Baylor’s new starting QB Sawyer Roberston went 6-12 passing for 113 yards with an interception and a fumble last week once Shapen went down and I don’t expect that to improve against a stout Utah defense.

#13 Oregon @ Texas Tech: Oregon -6.5 O/U 68.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Oregon -6.5: Much like the Utah game above, I would’ve thought this spread would be much higher in favor of Oregon. Texas Tech lost last week 37-35 @ Wyoming while Oregon annihilated Portland State 81-7. The Ducks are more experienced and talented, especially on defense, and have the better QB in Bo (knows) Nix. Quack Quack.

UConn @ Georgia State: Georgia State -3 O/U 54.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN+

Pick - UConn +3: Last week UConn hung around with N.C. State ultimately losing 24-14 while Georgia State messed around with FCS Rhode Island and prevailed 42-35. Georgia State rarely plays up to its potential and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if UConn won outright.

Auburn @ Cal: Auburn -6.5 O/U 54.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Cal +6: There’s not too much to glean off Cal & Auburn’s first-week drubbings of North Texas & UMass respectively, but I do know Auburn couldn’t stop the run last week and Cal has a star running back in sophomore Jaydn Ott. New OC and former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital returns to Cal after being their OC back in 2016 when they led the Pac-12 in total offense. Spavital likes to play fast and score lots of points. With Auburn having to fly across the country and play their first road game under new head coach Hugh Freeze, I think they win but don’t cover.

Stanford @ #6 USC: USC -29.5 O/U 69.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - O 69.5: USC won their first two games by margins of 56-28 and 66-14. Their defense still refuses to tackle anyone and even though Stanford isn’t trotting out Christian McCaffrey, first-year head coach Troy Taylor modernized their offense in the offseason to make it up-tempo with shades of Wake Forest utilizing RPO/slow mesh concepts. Last week against Hawaii they put up 37 points, running 70 plays averaging 5.8 yards per. Expect a lot of points under the lights in LA on Saturday.

Where in the World Are We?

Rand continues galavanting around the country where he will be in Raleigh on Friday night for a non-CFB related event (shocking), shooting back to Winston-Salem Saturday am to make it time for the Wake-Vandy game, then catching a flight to Vegas for work on Sunday.

Tate is once again back in Atlanta watching college football from his couch as he waits for UGA to play a team worthy enough of his presence in Athens. Tate is firm in his commitment to not miss the Texas/Alabama game because he is driving home from a 48-3 UGA win against Ball State. On top of that, he can drink his beers freely throughout the whole process.

Hope you have a great weekend and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through our good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.