Week 12 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. What we thought would be a cupcake weekend with the SEC playing their annual SoCon invitational and a dearth of premier matchups turned out to be anything but. In this edition, we’re feeling particularly brash as we discuss ass-kickings, firings, shooting things out of windows, stealing stuff, destroying things, witness tampering, applying band-aids, and on a lighter note, giving geography lessons, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Coaching Carousel

We’re a week out from Black Monday, yet the coaching carousel continues to spin like a top. On Sunday, Syracuse finally released head coach Dino Babers from hot seat purgatory and officially fired him. Babers is reportedly owed an $8 million buyout or 10.5% of what Texas A&M is paying Jimbo Fisher to not coach. For the upstate Yankees out there, $8 million is roughly 6.7 Bobby Bonilla Days. Babers had been on the hot seat for years, and outside of a 10-3 season in 2018, had only made it to one other bowl during his eight-year tenure. Syracuse is one of, if not the hardest Power 5 job in the country, so AD John Wildhack needs to get the next hire right. We suggest calling Sean Lewis who is a former Syracuse OC, Kent State head coach, and is currently sitting in timeout in Boulder, CO after Deion wrongfully demoted him. If he says no, call him back and offer him more money because there’s not a more uniquely qualified candidate for this job than him. 

On Friday, Michigan fired linebacker coach Chris Partridge which seems meaningless, but as is always the case with Michigan, there’s more to the story. After the sign-stealing investigation came to light, Partridge reportedly destroyed a laptop and pressured Michigan players not to cooperate with investigators. As a result, Michigan dropped its lawsuit against the Big 10 which simultaneously dropped its investigation into Michigan for the sign-stealing scandal. Harbaugh will not appeal and continue to serve his three-game suspension which extends into next weekend’s matchup against the Buckeyes. That’s not suspicious at all! Completely unrelatedly (read: completely relatedly), a few hours after this firing, reports came out that a Michigan booster named “Uncle T” was the one funding Conor Stalion's sign stealing escapades and expenditures. Unfortunately, Uncle T was determined not to be Tom Brady, but rather some guy named Tim Smith who vehemently denied the allegations and said he’s being cast as a scapegoat. We don’t know what’s going on in Ann Arbor, but amid reputable reports that Harbaugh will be suspended for a majority of the 2024 season, it wouldn’t surprise us if Michigan is looking for a new coach come January. 

Firings are fun, exciting, and surprising, kind of like ripping off a band-aid. However, when your employer has to make a public statement that you won’t be fired wouldn’t that be like putting a band-aid on? Anyways, Arkansas coach Sam Pittman is coming back for the 2024 season amid a disappointing 4-7 season. Pittman is a case study of how quickly a fanbase can sour on a coach because a year ago he was the toast of Fayetteville after leading the Razorbacks to a 7-6 season but were very competitive against good teams. Who knows if Pittman can turn it around next year, but it’ll be an interesting SEC storyline to follow, nonetheless.

Lastly, we won’t say much but one member of the 4th and Forever duo heard a rumor that Iowa DC Phil Parker is likely going to be coaching in LA next year under Lincoln Riley. We don’t want to give away our sources but let’s just say a high-level Iowa athletic department employee’s girlfriend has a loud mouth in public places. As you know, Iowa’s defense has been ‘85 Bears-esque for the past decade under his watch, and don’t know if there’s a better DC out there for Riley to hire. If this rumor becomes fact, we will share the full story, but just keep this one on the back burner and know you heard it here first.

Championship Races

If you thought this might be the week that we were going to see the playoff race shaken up in a big way, we’re afraid you’re going to have to wait another seven days. All nine teams that have even a remote possibility of a playoff appearance won on Saturday in what was another step towards the most interesting race we have seen since the first-ever College Football Playoff in 2014. But even the best teams are looking shaky at times, players are getting hurt, and we may actually be in for some chaos starting next week.

With a close win over Miami on Saturday, #9 Louisville clinched its spot in the ACC title game where they will take on #4 Florida State, who beat North Alabama on Saturday but lost star quarterback Jordan Travis for the season to a gruesome broken ankle in the first quarter. We’re both sick in the head but can guarantee you don’t want to see the replay of what his ankle did. We hate it for FSU & Travis, who has fought through numerous injuries, almost switched positions, and had to be convinced to even stay at FSU once Norvell got to town only to have one of the best careers in recent ACC history. We may not be Noles fans and would’ve loved to see a full-strength FSU get brought back to reality at some point over the next six weeks, but now we just feel terrible for them. Whatever happens to Florida State from here on out will likely just be sad and unfulfilling. This injury likely hurts Louisville as well, as the Cards already have the smallest chance out of the remaining 9 contenders to reach the playoff, and now with Travis hurt, the CFP committee won’t be nearly as impressed with a Louisville upset over FSU in the title game. What a shitty situation all around.

There was indeed a moment on Saturday night where it looked like things may get shaken up, as #5 Washington was in a rain-induced grudge match in Corvallis against #11 Oregon State. The Beavers were favored in this one, and after scoring a touchdown and kicking a field goal in the 3rd quarter to cut the Washington to 2, but the Beavs seemed to have all of the momentum. But great teams find ways to come out on top, and that’s exactly what Washington did. The Huskies controlled the 4th quarter, its defense stepped up for the first time seemingly all season late in the game, and Washington is now 11-0 headed into the final Apple Cup for the foreseeable future against Washington State next weekend. #6 Oregon demolished Arizona State in a game that saw Bo Nix have 6 passing touchdowns early in the 3rd quarter, and things are certainly looking like we’ll get a massive Washington vs. Oregon rematch in the PAC 12 championship game, which we can’t wait for.

In the Big Ten, both #2 Ohio State and #3 Michigan came out of the weekend unscathed (over Minnesota and Maryland, respectively) ahead of their massive showdown in Ann Arbor next weekend, but neither team is looking like a clear-cut world-beater right now. Ohio State continues to struggle throwing the ball consistently despite having the best wide receiver corp in the country, and it’s starting to look like Michigan - who was almost impossible to truly evaluate for two months due to their putrid schedule - has the exact same issue. Michigan screwed around for much of the second half and gave Maryland, who had lost four of their last five games, multiple 4th quarter possessions where the Terps had the chance to tie or take the lead. QB JJ McCarthy hardly looked like a major threat through the air at any point in the game, throwing for only 141 yards on 12-21 passes with no touchdowns and one interception. Both of these teams are very good, but it seems very fair at this point to question whether either will have the offensive firepower that it takes to win a national championship in this day and age. Oh and by the way, #16 Iowa rallied to defeat Illinois 15-13 to officially clinch the Big Ten West and will take on the winner of next week’s OSU/UM game, in what very well may be the most unwatchable conference championship game of all time. Congrats, Hawkeyes.

In the Big 12, #7 Texas went to Ames and didn’t pull a Texas, coming out with a 26-16 over Iowa State. While UT didn’t overly impress the country with their play, we think this was an impressive win for the Horns, because Texas teams of years past lose this game about 8 out of 10 times. It was a gritty win against a tough team on the road, and the Longhorns are right where they need to be with one week left. Technically, nobody has officially clinched a Big 12 title birth, but UT will almost certainly be in and will likely be playing #23 Oklahoma State, who cruised to a 43-30 win over Houston. #21 Kansas State still has a shot to make the title game after beating rival Kansas on Saturday but will need some help to get there.

The SEC title game between Alabama and Georgia has been official since last week, and because none of the other playoff contenders are losing games, the SEC Championship is shaping up to be effectively a playoff game, as the winner will almost certainly be in with the loser needing other teams to lose to have a shot. Alabama beat Chattanooga by 56 on Saturday in a game that is not worth discussing, while Georgia went on the road to beat rival #18 Tennessee by 4 touchdowns. As always, more on the Dawgs below.           

There hasn’t been a year quite like this in the Playoff era, where it seems likely that each Power 5 conference championship game will have massive playoff implications, and we can’t wait to get it underway. The story of the 2023 season so far has been the lack of major upsets but trust us… chaos is coming.

(Really) Quick Hitters 

In perhaps the game of the day, Mizzou continued their dream season and won on a walk-off field goal, again, behind the leg of Harrison ‘Thicker Kicker’ Mevis. Down 1 with under a minute to play facing 4th & 17 you’d think Florida would be smart enough to cover one of the best wide receivers in the country, Luther Burden III. You’d think wrong as Florida found numerous ways to shoot themselves in the foot as they collapsed like an iceberg in the Arctic.  

On the Plains, Auburn paid New Mexico State (NEW MEXICO STATE!!!) $1.7M to come beat them by three touchdowns. Hahahahahhahahahahahahahaha. Ahhhhh man that’s good. I honestly don’t have much else to say there. Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha. What a great day for America.           

Speaking of Tigers, Clemson proved yet again why you can never count them out in Death Valley. They might not have a QB, but they have an incredible defense and RB Will Shipley which might not win you an ACC or National Championship as their fans expect, but they’ll humble the best of the best. Drake Maye went 16/36 for 209 yards with a touchdown and interception as Clemson won 31-20 over the Heels. A rematch game against South Carolina in Columbia awaits them as they try to exact revenge on the Gamecocks after last year’s stunning loss.

Last but not least, 4th and Forever would like to issue their first-ever shoutout/props/award (we’ll work on a name) to the VMI Keydets who beat Western Carolina 27-24 in Lexington as 16.5-point underdogs. Keydet RB Hunter Rice had 138 yards and 4 touchdowns en route to the upset victory. We just hope no one got written up for shooting fireworks out of Barracks windows in celebration or stealing cannons from Washington & Lee…not that anyone has done that before.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 7-5 - Season Record: 57-60-1

W - App State +9: beat James Madison 26-23 (OT)

W - Illinois @ Iowa Game Total Under 30.5: Iowa won 15-13

L - Rutgers +20.5: lost to Penn State 27-6

W - UTSA -16.5: beat South Florida 49-21

L/W - Michigan -19.5 & Game Total Over 50: beat Maryland 31-24

L - SJSU -14.5: beat San Diego State 24-13 

L - Iowa State +7.5: lost to Texas 26-16

W - Northwestern ML: beat Purdue 23-15

W - South Carolina ML: beat Kentucky 17-14

L - UCF ML: lost to Texas Tech 24-23

W - UNLV ML: beat Air Force 31-27

HEYO - I had a positive week by more than a game! Props to App who proved for the 500th time in program history to not bet against them. They might not always win (even though they did this weekend) but I’d be willing to bet they’d win an unofficial poll of “which team is the biggest pain in the ass for the most number of CFB programs.” There’s a reason Mack Brown said he doesn’t want to play these guys anymore which is a compliment. I missed the Rutgers line by half a point which I would’ve been madder about until UCF’s stupid kicker Colton Boomer - who had made 85 consecutive PATs - decided to get an extra point blocked late in the fourth quarter which would’ve tied Texas Tech and I’m convinced they would’ve ended up winning for no other reason then I picked them. A win is a win is a win and I had more of those this weekend than losses which is not something some other people can say, namely…

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 3-4 - Season Record: 24-40-1

L - USC -6.5: lost to UCLA 38-20

W - LSU -31.5: beat Georgia State 56-14

L, L - Missouri -11, Game Total Under 59: Missouri won 33-31

W - Illinois @ Iowa Game Total Under 30.5: Iowa won 15-13

L - Nebraska @ Wisconsin Game Total Under 37.5: Wisconsin won 24-17

W - Arizona -1: beat Utah 42-18

Well, I am never betting on a Lincoln Riley-coached team anymore, because his USC program is an absolute joke right now. UCLA’s offense had been abysmal for weeks, there were rumors that head coach Chip Kelly was going to be fired after the game, and it was likely Caleb Williams’ last game in a Trojan uniform. So naturally, Riley’s team gave up 38 points and lost by three scores at home. Terrible pick. LSU covered with ease, which was nice, but #9 Missouri was simultaneously letting a 5-6 Florida’s backup quarterback come back against them at home, where not only did Mizzou not cover, but the under was killed in the 4th quarter. As always, the Iowa under was as sure of a thing as possible, but because this is 2023 Tate’s Great Picks, I thought I’d also nailed the Nebraska/Wisconsin under until the game went to f*cking overtime. Just can’t catch a break this year. At least Arizona is a wagon.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (11-0) - #1 Georgia 38 - #18 Tennessee 10: The Georgia Bulldogs have officially finished their SEC schedule 8-0 for the third straight season, the first team since Herschel Walker’s 1980-1982 teams to do so. The game started off in peak 2023 Georgia Bulldogs fashion, with UGA winning the opening coin toss, electing to defer to the 2nd half, and allowing its opponent to take a 7-0 lead. This time it wasn’t even a long drive, it was just a terrible defensive play that saw LB Smael Mondon get swallowed by a lineman, LB CJ Allen fill the incorrect gap, and DB Tykee Smith get caught flat-footed at the second level as UT running back Jaylen Wright burned down the field for a 75-yard TD on the first play of the game. Our opponents' scoring on the first possession has been so consistent that even Kirby joked with reporters after the game that he told defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann that he knew Tennessee would score first, so we might as well just go ahead and get it out of the way.

But that was it. Other than that play, the Dawgs absolutely dominated Tennessee in every single facet of the game. Carson Beck had another 300 yards (well, technically 298 but I digress), Brock Bowers was punking dudes as always, and Georgia demolished Tennessee up front. This was truly an ass-kicking.

The Dawgs’ offense was largely without receivers Ladd McConkey and Rara Thomas, who both had lingering injuries and played a few snaps in the first quarter before sitting the rest of the game, but as has been a consistent storyline all season, there were guys ready for the opportunity to step up and step up they did. Sophomore WR/RB Dillon Bell had an unreal day: 5 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD, an 18-yard passing touchdown on a trick play, a rush for 4 yards, and a kickoff return for 25 yards. We could easily call it “The Dillon Bell Game” if it weren’t for Senior receiver Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint who had 7 catches for 91 yards and 2 TD’s. Starting right guard Tate Ratledge went down in the first half, but the Dawgs had guys like Dylan Fairchild and Micah Morris ready to step in, and the offensive line continued to be the best pass-blocking unit in the nation. Defensively, Georgia is still without starting inside linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who Kirby has referred to as the “quarterback of the defense”, but the Dawgs have already developed freshman CJ Allen enough for him to be able to fill in with very little drop off.

This team isn’t as “talented” as it has been over the past two years. There’s no George Pickens or AD Mitchell at the X receiver spot. The running backs aren’t as good. The quarterback isn’t as much of a running/scrambling threat. The defense doesn’t have a Jalen Carter, a Jordan Davis, a Travon Walker. But Georgia has now won 28 games in a row, and with a win over Georgia Tech next week, we will break the all-time SEC winning streak record at 29. The Dawgs are still the best team in the country because we have the best coaching staff in the country, who have identified, recruited, signed, and developed kids that not only have elite talent but who have bought into the way Georgia’s system operates. It may not be immediate playing time for freshmen, it may not be explosive stats, it may not even be consistent snaps or usage from game to game. But it will be a hell of a lot of victories and championships.

Wake Forest (4-7) - Wake Forest - a little, Notre Dame - many more: Nothing about this weekend surprised me except Notre Dame fans have no idea where Wake Forest is. Granted, the average American probably doesn’t either, but we play Notre Dame in almost every sport multiple times a year. Maybe it’s just me, but I like to know where the opposing team is from. Yet, it was illuminating to listen to a Notre Dame dad explain to his child that the Triangle schools are Wake Forest, Duke, and UNC. Did I correct him? Absolutely not, I’m not going to show up this random, ignorant dad and say “well actually…” I’ll let that kid run around with false knowledge for the rest of his life. At least the dad had the correct state, as the cig-smoking ND fan I ran into outside the stadium seemingly went his entire life without knowing where Wake was until he saw my Wake sweatshirt and asked me. Alright, I’m off my tangent. Can you tell I don’t want to talk about the game? 

The dark cloud hanging over WF athletics right now is more than welcome to dissipate any day now. Football got (expectedly) drilled, men’s basketball went 1-2 over the weekend, men’s soccer lost a heartbreaker in the NCAA tourney to Indiana…again, and our volleyball team is good and went 0-2 this weekend after being up 2-0 against Notre Dame and 1-0 to Virginia Tech. Everything sucks right now. Are there caveats to all of those situations? Yes, the basketball season is young, and we’re playing good teams while missing three starters, but this is a results business, we aren’t getting them right now, and excuses are for losers. On the football side of things, all you need to know about the game is my friend Kenan texted me the ESPN box score and halfway through the second quarter our leading passer was our WR who threw a 17-yard completion on a trick play. What’s ironic about this football season from hell is there’s still potential we can make a bowl. As Brett McMurphy of Action Network notes here, 67 teams are currently bowl-eligible for 82 spots. If there aren’t enough teams with six wins after next week, James Madison and Jacksonville State would get the first calls since they are ineligible for postseason play unless there aren’t enough bowl eligible teams, and then 5-7 teams with the highest APR (graduation rate) get pulled in. Wake is #2 behind Minnesota. Win next weekend against Syracuse, there’s a chance we make a bowl, which would be huge if for no other reason than to get our team more practice and game experience. It would’ve been a lot cooler if we didn’t have to backdoor our way into a bowl game but c'est la vie. At least weather patterns tend to move west to east if you catch my drift…or look at a map of North Carolina. 

Texts of the Week

“I’m numb. Nothing hurts me.” - Auburn & Wake Forest fan Owen Powell. Tough weekend for the kid.

“Get plastic surgery grandma outta here.” - Sam Weinbach as Dolly Parton sang Rocky Top

“Bear Alexander made a good decision.” - Eli Shankman

“New Mexico State should’ve been favored at Auburn.” - Robbie Eisenman. Hard to argue with.

“Big day for Dillon Bell Heisman campaign.” - Jack Zucker

“I f*cking love Mike Bobo.” - Alec Nathan

Hope you have a great Monday, and we will talk to you again on Wednesday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.